Modeling of the EMRAS urban working group hypothetical scenario using the RESRAD-RDD methodology

The RESRAD-RDD methodology was applied to model the short- and long-term radiation exposures after a hypothetical radiological dispersal device (RDD) event in an urban environment. It was assumed that an RDD event would result in outside surface contamination of the exterior walls and roofs of surrounding buildings, as well as associated paved areas and lawns. The contaminants also might move inside the buildings and deposit on floors and interior walls. Some important input parameters include occupancy factors, building characteristics, and weathering of surface contamination. The modeling results include predicted external dose rates, relative contributions from important surfaces, annual and cumulative doses, and radionuclide concentrations. Potential countermeasures evaluated include grass removal, soil removal, and washing of paved areas.     

Estimation of doses received in a dry-contaminated residential area in the Bryansk region, Russia, since the Chernobyl accident

In nuclear preparedness, an essential requirement is the ability to adequately predict the likely consequences of a major accident situation. In this context it is very important to evaluate which contributions to dose are important, and which are not likely to have significance. As an example of this type of evaluation, a case study has been conducted to estimate the doses received over the first 17 years after the Chernobyl accident in a dry-contaminated residential area in the Bryansk region in Russia. Methodologies for estimation of doses received through nine different pathways, including contamination of streets, roofs, exterior walls, and landscape, are established, and best estimates are given for each of the dose contributions. Generally, contaminated soil areas were estimated to have given the highest dose contribution, but a number of other contributions to dose, e.g., from contaminated roofs and inhalation of contaminants during the passage of the contaminated plume, were of the same order of magnitude.     

Modelling the long-term consequences of a hypothetical dispersal of radioactivity in an urban area including remediation alternatives

The Urban Remediation Working Group of the International Atomic Energy Agency's EMRAS (Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety) program was organized to address issues of remediation assessment modelling for urban areas contaminated with dispersed radionuclides. The present paper describes the second of two modelling exercises. This exercise was based on a hypothetical dispersal of radioactivity in an urban area from a radiological dispersal device, with reference surface contamination at selected sites used as the primary input information. Modelling endpoints for the exercise included radionuclide concentrations and external dose rates at specified locations, contributions to the dose rates from individual surfaces, and annual and cumulative external doses to specified reference individuals. Model predictions were performed for a “no action” situation (with no remedial measures) and for selected countermeasures. The exercise provided an opportunity for comparison of three modelling approaches, as well as a comparison of the predicted effectiveness of various countermeasures in terms of their short-term and long-term effects on predicted doses to humans.     

武汉市典型绿地植被类型对表层土壤入渗和持水性能的影响

合理的绿地植被建设和管理是提高城市蓄水能力和减少城市内涝的重要途径。该文以武汉市城区8种代表性绿地植被的表层土壤为研究对象，通过测定土壤理化性质和水力学特征参数，量化了不同类型绿地植被对表层土壤水分入渗和保持性能的影响，并揭示了土壤理化性质对其影响的机制。结果表明：不同植被类型表层土壤水分入渗性能和持水能力差异显著，天然香樟林、玉兰园、桂花园和牡丹园具有较好的入渗性能，表现为较高的饱和导水率（179.70~441.69 cm/d），其次是人工草坪（31.53~126.60 cm/d），而樱花园、梅花园和桃李园的入渗性能最差（22.40~57.99 cm/d）。天然香樟林土壤持水能力最强，表现为最高的田间持水量（0.315~0.336 cm³/cm³）和最大有效含水量（0.170~0.177 cm³/cm³），其次是玉兰园、桂花园、牡丹园、梅花园和桃李园，持水量、有效含水量分别为:0.241~0.289 cm³/cm³,0.144~0.182 cm³/cm³，而樱花园和草坪的持水能力最弱（0.209~0.254 cm³/cm³,0.139~0.165cm³/cm³）。土壤饱和导水率与总孔隙度、非毛管孔隙度呈显著正相关关系，与容重呈显著负相关关系。而容重、总孔隙度、砂粒和粘粒含量是影响土壤水分特征的主要因素。可以通过乔灌木林下种植草本植物、减少人为践踏，以及适时翻耕等方式提高绿地土壤的入渗与保水能力，进而提高其降雨存蓄功能，减少城市内涝。     

南京市秦淮区昼夜人口空间分布估算与分析

人口时空分布研究对于城市规划管理、土地利用布局优化以及生态资源环境评价具有重要的现实意义。以南京市秦淮区为研究区，选择Google Earth平台提供的2014年空间分辨率为0.27 m的高分辨率遥感影像，结合统计资料和实地调查，根据人们日常活动的时空位移规律，获取“人口-昼夜-土地利用”匹配关系，借助地理信息系统建模和空间分析技术，实现100 m格网单元尺度下的昼夜人口空间分布定量模拟，并从街道和建筑斑块尺度对人口空间化结果进行验证，进而分析昼夜人口空间分布格局。结果表明：(1）利用高分辨率遥感影像目视解译和街景地图等多源数据，可有效克服城市复杂下垫面的土地利用类型和建筑物图斑数据较难获取的困难，提高城市人口估算的空间分辨率；(2）利用土地利用类型和建筑物空间属性信息，能够合理地估算建筑物尺度上的昼夜人口空间分布；（3)由于中心城区建筑物功能布局以及城乡发展差异等诸多因素影响，城市中心城区昼夜人口的空间结构存在显著差异，白天人口分布范围较为广泛且部分区域具有显著的集聚特征，而夜晚人口的高值分布则相对分散，高值集聚区向城区周边推移。 关键词： 昼夜人口；时空分布；遥感；地理信息分析；南京市；秦淮区     

A general methodology for structuring models to predict the long-term migration of radionuclides from catchments

In the present paper a generic model for predicting the long-term migration of radionuclides and heavy metals from catchments is described. The model subdivides the catchment into a number of homogeneous, infinitesimal sub-catchments and integrates the radionuclide contributions from such sub-catchments to calculate the total flux of contaminant. It relates the radionuclide behaviour to the statistical distribution of the pollutant partition coefficient on the "ensemble" of sub-catchments. The methodology was validated for 90Sr and 137Cs by using data for water contamination in some European rivers. Values of migration parameters for Pu, Tc, I and Cd isotopes were obtained.     

流域土地利用变化的长周期水文效应及管理策略

长周期水文效应作为不同强度暴雨事件的综合反映，对流域规划和管理决策非常重要。以太湖地区蠡河流域为研究区，通过解译1984年、1995年和2000年3个时段TM/ETM获得土地利用分布地图，分析其土地利用变化的模式，并基于研究区30年的降水序列，应用长周期水文分析模型L-THIA（Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment），计算3个时段土地利用特征对暴雨地表径流的影响，分析不同土地利用类型水文效应的敏感性，在此基础上总结了减少流域水文效应的土地利用管理策略。分析结果显示，该区土地利用有明显变化，主要表现为水田、旱田向建筑用地的转化，从1984年到2002年，城镇及居民地扩展占流域总面积的4.199 4 ％，地表径流量增加了6.170 ％，不同土地利用方式的水文效应有较大差别，林地、湖滩湿地的敏感性最大，其次是水田和旱田。     

Assessment of groundwater contamination by nitrate leaching from intensive vegetable cultivation using geographical information system

This study employed the Geographical Information System (GIS) technology to investigate nitrate contamination of groundwater by agrochemical fertilizers in the Kakamigahara Heights, Gifu Prefecture, central Japan. Thematic information and chemical data of groundwater from the Heights were analyzed in a GIS environment to study the extent and variation of nitrate contamination and to establish spatial relationships with responsible land use types. The high and correlated concentrations of Ca(2+), Mg(2+), SO(4)(2-), and NO(3)(-) reflected the polluted nature of the unconfined highly permeable Kakamigahara aquifer. Ninety percent of the water samples showed nitrate concentrations above the human affected value (3 mg/l NO(3)(-)), while more than 30% have exceeded the maximum acceptable level (44 mg/l NO(3)(-)) according to Japan regulations. The spatial analyses indicated that groundwater contamination by nitrate is closely associated with one specific land use class, the "vegetable fields". The nitrate concentration of groundwater under vegetable fields was significantly higher than that under urban land or paddy fields. Most of the unacceptable nitrate levels were encountered in boreholes assigned to "vegetable fields" but a few were also found in boreholes allotted to "urban" class. Therefore, the vegetable fields were considered the principal source of nitrate contamination of groundwater in the Kakamigahara. However, contamination from urban sources is also possible.     

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汉江上游是南水北调中线水源地，流域生态环境建设是保障水源地水质安全的关键。针对上游流域水环境污染、土地利用以及水土流失等重大生态环境问题，结合流域数字高程模型及水质调查对其进行了系统分析。结果表明：（1）丹江流域、库区流域及汉中盆地水质较差，CODMn和氨氮成为水源区主要污染物；（2）各子流域区植被覆盖占各自面积的712%~957%，表明流域植被覆盖较好，但沿河岸100 m范围内农业用地占292%~434%，且多为坡耕地；（3）流域水土流失严重，2000年左右流域侵蚀图显示汉江源头、秦岭南及大巴山北均出现了大片年均侵蚀模数>2 200 t/km2的区域，且有日益增强的趋势。提出加大水环境污染整治力度、加强农业用肥管理及河岸带建设、水土保持建设以及加强流域水环境及水土保持监测和科研工作等对策。     

Lead contamination and isotope signatures in the urban environment of Hong Kong

The source and the extent of Pb pollution in the urban environment of Hong Kong were investigated at five different urban settings selected on the basis of their annual average daily traffic (AADT) varying from less than 100 to 61,700. In addition, a small distant island without any traffic was selected to establish the possible baseline values. The surface environmental samples studied consisted of street and tunnel dusts, gully sediments, and a limited number of roadside topsoils. The analytical results clearly indicated variable degrees of Pb contamination in these urban settings. However, the level of contamination varied significantly among different types of samples collected at the same location. Pb concentrations of roadside topsoils (79+/-22 micrograms/g) and gully sediments (278+/-88 micrograms/g) were lower than those of the corresponding road dusts (327+/-54 micrograms/g). The Pb isotope compositions in different urban settings varied considerably. The bedrock in the small island had the lowest Pb concentration (12 micrograms/g) but with the highest 206Pb/207Pb ratio (1.2206), whereas the tunnel ceiling dusts with the highest level of Pb (1410 micrograms/g) had the lowest 206Pb/207Pb ratio (1.1062). Despite the significant differences in vehicle types and traffic volumes, and the presence of several different petroleum retailers in Hong Kong, the Pb isotope ratios of road dusts (206Pb/207Pb: 1.1553+/-0.0043, 208Pb/207Pb: 2.4408+/-0.0084) varied within a relatively narrow range among all the five urban sampling sites. On the other hand, the Pb isotopic compositions of gully sediments (206Pb/207Pb: 1.1515+/-0.0145, 208Pb/207Pb: 2.4322+/-0.0198) varied noticeably within the same setting, but were reasonably comparable across the different study sites. In general, the 206Pb/207Pb ratios of road dusts can be used to estimate the direct contribution from automobile emissions, whereas those of gully sediments might reflect the effects of the mixing of different anthropogenic sources. The Pb isotope signatures in the urban environment of Hong Kong clearly suggested that anthropogenic Pb in the environment originated from Pb ore with a low 206Pb/207Pb ratio (such as the Australian Pb ore and similar sources in Southeast Asia) were significantly different from those of the anthropogenic Pb present in the neighboring Pearl River Delta (PRD) region.     

城市热环境的规划改善策略研究——以武汉市为例

随着城市热环境的恶化，城市中极热现象频率逐步增高。对于在城市尺度下提出的概念性的规划策略，因其缺乏可操作性并不能及时有效的缓解城市热岛现象。然而，在局部尺度下的策略一直难以提出，其中的一个原因便是对现有的关于城市微气候的研究缺少标准。在OKE教授团队提出的局部气候区（LCZ）概念的基础上，以武汉市为例提出一个通过量化的措施在局部尺度改善城市热环境的流程。方法上，利用ArcGIS和envi软件从Landsat-7的ETM+影像数据和武汉市的建筑矢量数据中提取出9个最常用的影响地表温度（LST）的地表指标，进而利用这9个指标通过K均值聚类的方法对武汉市研究区域进行LCZ划分。接着，利用普通最小二乘法（OLS）分析地表指标与LST的关系。以LCZ为框架，结合各地表指标与LST的相关性关系，从改善局部LST过高的角度出发，以分层结构和优先级的思路提出规划缓解策略。研究结果表明，案例中的武汉市研究区域被划分为7个LCZ，同时也定位出各LCZ中温度最高的热点，发现地表指标在不同的LCZ与地表温度有独特的相关性关系，因而针对不同LCZ中的热点提出了具体的地表指标参数值调整建议来改善热点的热环境状况。这可以在一定程度上有目标性的降低局部热岛的温度，同时至少在2个方面有助于城市微气候和规划的研究：(1）减小了城市热环境的研究尺度；(2）从规划角度提出了优化城市热环境的工作流程。     

巢湖流域不同土地利用类型地表径流污染特征研究

巢湖是我国五大淡水湖之一,目前正面临着严重的环境污染与水体富营养化问题。通过对巢湖流域塘西地区大豆地,水稻田,菜地,山芋地,小麦地,集镇街道,山坡地,饲养场地,农村道路,湖滩芦苇地,荒地等１１种土地利用类型地表径流污染现状的详细调查与分析,建立了巢湖流域不同土地利用类型地表径流污染研究的一般程序与方法。     

Modelling remediation options for urban contamination situations

The impact on a population from an event resulting in dispersal and deposition of radionuclides in an urban area could be significant, in terms of both the number of people affected and the economic costs of recovery. The use of computer models for assessment of urban contamination situations and remedial options enables the evaluation of a variety of situations or alternative recovery strategies in contexts of preparedness or decision-making. At present a number of models and modelling approaches are available for different purposes. This paper summarizes the available modelling approaches, approaches for modelling countermeasure effectiveness, and current sources of information on parameters related to countermeasure effectiveness. Countermeasure information must be applied with careful thought as to its applicability for the specific situation being modelled. Much of the current information base comes from the Chernobyl experience and would not be applicable for all types of situations.     

Future areas of investigation regarding the problem of urban road dust

In a number of metropolitan areas of the country, failure to attain national primary air quality standards for total suspended particulates (TSP) has fostered a detailed reexamination of the nature of the urban TSP problem. Reentrained dust from paved streets and other traffic-related emissions are now recognized as major sources of TSP in urban areas. While numerous reports and studies have examined this subject, some significant aspects of urban road dust have not been studied in enough detail, if at all. Examples of this are the effects of gutters and pavement composition and shape. This paper discusses those areas of the urban road dust problem that are felt to require further attention and outlines the priorities with which the data should be obtained.     

基于HJＧ１B数据的武汉市LST反演及热环境分析

以HJ 1B CCD/IRS4为主要数据源，采用单窗算法，反演了武汉市夏季高温代表日的地表温度，并用MODIS地表温度产品对反演结果进行了验证。在此基础上，提取热场变异复合指数来分析城市热岛空间分布特征，给出了城市热岛效应的定量化描述，并就不同下垫面对热岛效应的影响进行了研究。结果如下：（1）武汉城市热岛呈现整体上交错分布而局部小聚集的不规则特点，大热岛之中存在一些温度更高的小热岛；（2）武汉市2009~2012年夏季高温日平均LST为30611 K，多数城区温度达到309～317 K；（3）主城区热场变异复合指数均超过了0015，表现为较强－极强的热岛效应；6个等级的热岛效应强度的面积比例依次下降，而对应的LST平均值则逐渐升高；(4)不同地表覆盖类型LST相差较大，其在地表类型面积构成中的比例不同。研究成果可为城市热环境监测与生态评价提供科学依据     

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运用空间自相关的全域指标和局域指标，分析1990年和2000年上海市域及中心城区两个年份的人口密度的Moran's I和Getis's G值。结果表明：从市域的尺度上看，10年间，人口集聚增强，即城市高密度集聚、农村低密度集聚，中心城区及其内部出现的人口密度相对分散的趋势只是表现在城市内部，而市域内城市与农村之间的差异仍在不断扩大，表现为一种从农村向城市的向心型城市化过程，而且城市化还处于不断上升的阶段。从中心城区的尺度看，10年间，中心城区人口密度不断降低，城区核心人口绝对量持续减少，城区外缘绝对量持续增加，上海市城区具有明显的郊区化特点，空间上表现出一种离心型城市化的特点。研究结果的可借鉴性表明空间自相关的统计分析能更好地揭示出人口的分布模式、人口集聚及其变化的热点和内在机制，对于人口的合理布局方案、城市化政策制定等政府宏观决策具有意义。     

Determining the relative importance of soil sample locations to predict risk of child lead exposure

Soil lead in urban neighborhoods is a known predictor of child blood lead levels. In this paper, we address the question where one ought to concentrate soil sample collection efforts to efficiently predict children at-risk for soil Pb exposure. Two extensive data sets are combined, including 5467 surface soil samples collected from 286 census tracts, and geo-referenced blood Pb data for 55,551 children in metropolitan New Orleans, USA. Random intercept least squares, random intercept logistic, and quantile regression results indicate that soils collected within 1 m adjacent to residential streets most reliably predict child blood Pb outcomes in child blood Pb levels. Regression decomposition results show that residential street soils account for 39.7% of between-neighborhood explained variation, followed by busy street soils (21.97%), open space soils (20.25%), and home foundation soils (18.71%). Just as the age of housing stock is used as a statistical shortcut for child risk of exposure to lead-based paint, our results indicate that one can shortcut the characterization of child risk of exposure to neighborhood soil Pb by concentrating sampling efforts within 1 m and adjacent to residential and busy streets, while significantly reducing the total costs of collection and analysis. This efficiency gain can help advance proactive upstream, preventive methods of environmental Pb discovery.     

Review of dynamical models for external dose calculations based on Monte Carlo simulations in urbanised areas

After an accidental release of radionuclides to the inhabited environment the external gamma irradiation from deposited radioactivity contributes significantly to the radiation exposure of the population for extended periods. For evaluating this exposure pathway, three main model requirements are needed: (i) to calculate the air kerma value per photon emitted per unit source area, based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulations; (ii) to describe the distribution and dynamics of radionuclides on the diverse urban surfaces; and (iii) to combine all these elements in a relevant urban model to calculate the resulting doses according to the actual scenario. This paper provides an overview about the different approaches to calculate photon transport in urban areas and about several dose calculation codes published. Two types of Monte Carlo simulations are presented using the global and the local approaches of photon transport. Moreover, two different philosophies of the dose calculation, the "location factor method" and a combination of relative contamination of surfaces with air kerma values are described. The main features of six codes (ECOSYS, EDEM2M, EXPURT, PARATI, TEMAS, URGENT) are highlighted together with a short model-model features intercomparison.     

Modelling changes in nitrogen emissions into the Oder River System 1875–1944

Studies of nutrient emissions into surface waters are usually only performed for years in recent decades. However, estimating nutrient emissions for the more distant past enables us to identify the main factors responsible for the increasing nutrient contamination since the end of the nineteenth century. We focussed on the Oder River System for 1875–1944, divided into 10-year periods. Nutrient emissions into surface waters were calculated with the model MONERIS (MOdelling Nutrient Emissions in RIver Systems). For seven different pathways and eight sources, the total nitrogen (TN) emissions were quantified. The TN-emissions into the surface waters for 1880 amounted to 25,300 t?year^?1, and by 1940, this value had almost doubled to 46,600?t?year^?1. In 1880, 57% of TN-emissions into the surface waters derived from urban systems, due to the high amount of untreated waste water. In 1940, only 34% of TN-emissions into surface waters derived from urban systems, despite a population growth of about 27% since 1880; point sources via newly constructed waste water treatment plants (WWTPs) increased from 4% (1880) to 26% (1940). During the study period, the main changes in diffuse TN-emissions from agriculture were caused by inorganic fertilizer application and nitrogen deposition, while TN-emissions via urban sources were shifted to point sources due to population growth and the construction of new WWTPs. Furthermore, estimated TN-concentrations could make a contribution to construct benchmarks for nutrient concentrations according to the physiochemical properties to implement the European Water Framework Directive (WFD 2000).     

中国城市化进程中的城市道路交通碳排放研究

探讨了中国城市化、经济发展、技术进步等与城市道路交通碳排放之间的长期均衡关系与动态作用机制,并对中国城市道路交通碳排放进行了预测和情景分析。结果表明:①城市化率、交通能源强度、城市居民消费水平和人均GDP对城市道路交通碳排放的长期均衡弹性分别为0.93、0.73、0.68、0.44;②城市道路交通碳排放的最大贡献者在中短期内是交通能源强度,长期内是城市化率;③人均GDP增长率的提高,短期内会促使城市道路交通碳排放增长率提高,而长期又有助于使之降低;④中国城市道路交通碳排放持续增长的趋势在相当长时期内不可避免;⑤不同的发展理念和政策与技术的组合,可以使城市道路交通碳排放发生重大变化。基于研究,提出了中国城市道路交通碳减排的政策取向。