The Future of Baltic Sea Populations: Local Extinction or Evolutionary Rescue?

Environmental change challenges local and global survival of populations and species. In a species-poor environment like the Baltic Sea this is particularly critical as major ecosystem functions may be upheld by single species. A complex interplay between demographic and genetic characteristics of species and populations determines risks of local extinction, chances of re-establishment of lost populations, and tolerance to environmental changes by evolution of new adaptations. Recent studies show that Baltic populations of dominant marine species are locally adapted, have lost genetic variation and are relatively isolated. In addition, some have evolved unusually high degrees of clonality and others are representatives of endemic (unique) evolutionary lineages. We here suggest that a consequence of local adaptation, isolation and genetic endemism is an increased risk of failure in restoring extinct Baltic populations. Additionally, restricted availability of genetic variation owing to lost variation and isolation may negatively impact the potential for evolutionary rescue following environmental change.     

Integrated approach of environmental impact and risk assessment of Rosia Montana Mining Area, Romania

The environmental impact assessment of mining sites represents nowadays a large interest topic in Romania. Historical pollution in the Rosia Montana mining area of Romania caused extensive damage to environmental media. This paper has two goals: to investigate the environmental pollution induced by mining activities in the Rosia Montana area and to quantify the environmental impacts and associated risks by means of an integrated approach. Thus, a new method was developed and applied for quantifying the impact of mining activities, taking account of the quality of environmental media in the mining area, and used as case study in the present paper. The associated risks are a function of the environmental impacts and the probability of their occurrence. The results show that the environmental impacts and quantified risks, based on quality indicators to characterize the environmental quality, are of a higher order, and thus measures for pollution remediation and control need to be considered in the investigated area. The conclusion drawn is that an integrated approach for the assessment of environmental impact and associated risks is a valuable and more objective method, and is an important tool that can be applied in the decision-making process for national authorities in the prioritization of emergency action.     

Assessing the effects of transboundary ozone pollution between Ontario,Canada and New York,USA

We investigated the effects of transboundary pollution between Ontario and New York using both observations and modeling results. Analysis of the spatial scales associated with ozone pollution revealed the regional and international character of this pollutant. A back-trajectory-clustering methodology was used to evaluate the potential for transboundary pollution trading and to identify potential pollution source regions for two sites: CN tower in Toronto and the World Trade Center in New York City. Transboundary pollution transport was evident at both locations. The major pollution source areas for the period examined were the Ohio River Valley and Midwest. Finally, we examined the transboundary impact of emission reductions through photochemical models. We found that emissions from both New York and Ontario were transported across the border and that reductions in predicted O3 levels can be substantial when emissions on both sides of the border are reduced.     

The origin of atmospheric lead in Oslo,Norway, studied with the use of isotopic ratios

Application of the lead isotope method to differentiate between the local contribution of lead and its portion from long-range transport of air pollution from sources a few thousand kilometers away to the lead pollution level measured in the Oslo area in Norway is discussed. The ²⁰⁶Pb/²⁰⁴Pb ratio is of particular interest in this respect. The results of measurements presented in the paper show that phase-out of lead additives to gasoline in Northern Europe has not phased out the Pb contamination of the environment. The lead isotope method proved very useful to present a contribution of small local sources to the Pb contamination of the air in the Oslo area during the period when the combustion of gasoline, the major source of Pb contamination has been decreasing. Wood combustion is one of these sources in Norway. Lower impact of long-range transport of air pollutants emitted from sources in Eastern and Central Europe and transported with air masses to Scandinavia, during the recent 5 years, can also be traced utilizing isotopic ratios of lead. The application of tree-rings as environmental archives contributed significantly to elucidating the historical Pb pollution.     

Pools and fluxes of organic matter in a boreal landscape: implications for a safety assessment of a repository for nuclear waste

To provide information necessary for a license application for a deep repository for spent nuclear fuel, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co is carrying out site investigations, including extensive studies of different parts of the surface ecosystems, at two sites in Sweden. Here we use the output from detailed modeling of the carbon dynamics in the terrestrial, limnic and marine ecosystems to describe and compare major pools and fluxes of organic matter in the Simpevarp area, situated on the southeast coast of Sweden. In this study, organic carbon is used as a proxy for radionuclides incorporated into organic matter. The results show that the largest incorporation of carbon into living tissue occurs in terrestrial catchments. Carbon is accumulated in soil or sediments in all ecosystems, but the carbon pool reaches the highest values in shallow near-land marine basins. The marine basins, especially the outer basins, are dominated by large horizontal water fluxes that transport carbon and any associated contaminants into the Baltic Sea. The results suggest that the near-land shallow marine basins have to be regarded as focal points for accumulation of radionuclides in the Simpevarp area, as they receive a comparatively large amount of carbon as discharge from terrestrial catchments, having a high NPP and a high detrital accumulation in sediments. These focal points may constitute a potential risk for exposure to humans in a future landscape as, due to post-glacial land uplift, previous accumulation bottoms are likely to be used for future agricultural purposes.     

Application of a novel modeling tool with multistressor functionality to support management of organic contaminants in the Baltic Sea

Organic contaminants constitute one of many stressors that deteriorate the ecological status of the Baltic Sea. When managing environmental problems in this marine environment, it may be necessary to consider the interactions between various stressors to ensure that averting one problem does not exacerbate another. A novel modeling tool, BALTSEM-POP, is presented here that simulates interactions between climate forcing, hydrodynamic conditions, and water exchange, biogeochemical cycling, and organic contaminant transport and fate in the Baltic Sea. We discuss opportunities to use the model to support different aspects of chemicals management. We exemplify these opportunities with a case study where two emission-reduction strategies for a chemical used in personal care products (decamethylcyclopentasiloxane) are evaluated, and where the confounding influence of future climate change and eutrophication on the impact of the emission-reduction strategies are assessed.     

Environmental problems in Russia affecting the Black and Baltic Seas

This paper addresses problems of marine environment protection in Russia, with an emphasis on the legislative and institutional basis for protecting the seas from oil pollution. The status of the Black and Baltic Seas is described, together with the relevant technical, organisational, and economic elements. As an example of a comprehensive approach for tackling the problems under consideration, we present briefly the 'Complex programme for the prevention of marine pollution caused by ships and ports activity', recently elaborated by a broad Russian expert group.     

Effects of seagrass bed removal for tourism purposes in a Mauritian bay

Stresses and shocks are increasing on the main natural assets in Mauritius (Western Indian Ocean) by tourism (marine-based) development activities. Seagrasses are removed by hotels in the belief that they are unsightly or harbour organisms causing injury to bathers. Environmental changes (e.g. sediment characteristics and infauna distribution, water quality, seagrass biomass) resulting from clearing of a seagrass bed to create an aesthetically pleasant swimming zone for clients of a hotel were monitored during June 2000-July 2001, and compared to conditions prevailing in an adjacent undisturbed area. Key observations in the disturbed area were: highly turbid water overlying a destabilized lagoon seabed, complete loss of sediment infauna, and dramatic dry weight biomass declines (e.g. 72 and 65% in S. isoetifolium and H. uninervis, respectively). Such disruptions draw-down resilience rendering the marine habitats less robust and more vulnerable to environmental change and extreme events, with higher risks of chaos and ecological collapse, and constitute a major threat to the industry itself.     

The Mar Piccolo of Taranto: an interesting marine ecosystem for the environmental problems studies

The National Project RITMARE (la Ricerca ITaliana per il MARE—Italian Research for the sea) started from 1 January 2012. It is one of the national research programs funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research. RITMARE is coordinated by the National Research Council (CNR) and involves an integrated effort of most of the scientific community working on marine and maritime issues. Within the project, different marine study areas of strategic importance for the Mediterranean have been identified: Among these, the coastal area of Taranto (Ionian Sea, Southern Italy) was chosen for its different industry settlements and the relative impact on the marine environment. In particular, the research has been concentrated on the Mar Piccolo of Taranto, a complex marine ecosystem model important in terms of ecological, social, and economic activities for the presence also of extensive mussel farms. The site has been selected also because the Mar Piccolo area is a characteristic “on field” laboratory suitable to investigate release and diffusion mechanisms of contaminants, evaluate chemical–ecological risks towards the marine ecosystem and human health, and suggest and test potential remediation strategies for contaminated sediments. In this context, within the project RITMARE, a task force of researchers has contributed to elaboration a functioning conceptual model with a multidisciplinary approach useful to identify anthropogenic forcings, its impacts, and solutions of environmental remediation. This paper describes in brief some of the environmental issues related to the Mar Piccolo basin.     

Framing Environmental Risks in the Baltic Sea: A News Media Analysis

Scientific complexity and uncertainty is a key challenge for environmental risk governance and to understand how risks are framed and communicated is of utmost importance. The Baltic Sea ecosystem is stressed and exposed to different risks like eutrophication, overfishing, and hazardous chemicals. Based on an analysis of the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter, this study discusses media representations of these risks. The results show that the reporting on the Baltic Sea has been fairly stable since the beginning of the 1990s. Many articles acknowledge several risks, but eutrophication receives the most attention and is also considered the biggest threat. Authorities, experts, organizations, and politicians are the dominating actors, while citizens and industry representatives are more or less invisible. Eutrophication is not framed in terms of uncertainty concerning the risk and consequences, but rather in terms of main causes.     

Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management

We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960–2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.     

Review articles: Tankships in the marine environment

This report gives an inside view on discussions held at the headquarters of the International Maritime Organization, the United Nations agency concerned with maritime safety and the prevention of pollution from ships. Marine environmental protection regulations and their historical development are presented and discussed. The regulative measures that have been taken under the responsibility of this organization during the last decades to reduce accidental and operational discharge from tankships have achieved success although the marine environment is still suffering. Those standards which will come into force will further reduce the risks of accidental pollution. The report summarizes aspects beyond issues of environmental science which have to be analysed in order to reduce the impact of tankships on the marine environment. The report ends with the thesis that safer ships and improved occupational conditions on board are prerequisites for cleaner seas.     

Concentrations and profiles of PCDD/Fs in sediments of major Polish rivers and the Gdansk Basin--Baltic Sea

The present state of contamination of bottom sediments in southern part of the Baltic Sea with PCDD/Fs was compared to the findings made for the north-western and eastern Baltic Sea coastal areas of Finland, Sweden and Denmark. The extent of the study area--from marine the Gdańsk Basin, the lower Oder and Vistula Rivers up till W?oc?awek reservoir--allowed to obtain the sediment samples with diversified properties. Dioxin's concentrations in sediments examined in the Polish costal area allows us to evaluate this zone as relatively less contaminated. Higher dioxin concentration has been found in Wloclawek Dam Reservoir. Differences in congener patterns and temporal changes in marine sediment profiles were examined. The highest concentrations of tetra- and penta-congeners still remain in the surface layer of Gdansk Deep, whereas the decline in concentrations of these most toxic congeners, have been observed in the sediments from some other parts of the Baltic coast. Excess concentration of dioxins in sediments has a great impact on human being due to special ability of accumulation in the trophic chain as well as in water (fishes) and land (milk, meat).     

Climate change effects on the Baltic Sea borderland between land and sea

Coastal habitats are situated on the border between land and sea, and ecosystem structure and functioning is influenced by both marine and terrestrial processes. Despite this, most scientific studies and monitoring are conducted either with a terrestrial or an aquatic focus. To address issues concerning climate change impacts in coastal areas, a cross-ecosystem approach is necessary. Since habitats along the Baltic coastlines vary in hydrology, natural geography, and ecology, climate change projections for Baltic shore ecosystems are bound to be highly speculative. Societal responses to climate change in the Baltic coastal ecosystems should have an ecosystem approach and match the biophysical realities of the Baltic Sea area. Knowledge about ecosystem processes and their responses to a changing climate should be integrated within the decision process, both locally and nationally, in order to increase the awareness of, and to prepare for climate change impacts in coastal areas of the Baltic Sea.     

Effects of Altered Offshore Food Webs on Coastal Ecosystems Emphasize the Need for Cross-Ecosystem Management

By mainly targeting larger predatory fish, commercial fisheries have indirectly promoted rapid increases in densities of their prey; smaller predatory fish like sprat, stickleback and gobies. This process, known as mesopredator release, has effectively transformed many marine offshore basins into mesopredator-dominated ecosystems. In this article, we discuss recent indications of trophic cascades on the Atlantic and Baltic coasts of Sweden, where increased abundances of mesopredatory fish are linked to increased nearshore production and biomass of ephemeral algae. Based on synthesis of monitoring data, we suggest that offshore exploitation of larger predatory fish has contributed to the increase in mesopredator fish also along the coasts, with indirect negative effects on important benthic habitats and coastal water quality. The results emphasize the need to rebuild offshore and coastal populations of larger predatory fish to levels where they regain their control over lower trophic levels and important links between offshore and coastal systems are restored.     

Assessing the impact of weather events at mid-latitudes on the atmospheric transport of chemical pollutants using a 2-dimensional multimedia meteorological model

We investigate the long-range transport potential (LRTP) of five different classes of hypothetical chemical pollutants (volatile, multimedia, semivolatile, particle-associated and hydrophilic) during a low pressure weather event using a novel 2 (x- and z-axis)-Dimensional Multi-Media Meteorological Model (2D4M). The atmosphere (z-axis) is described by three atmospheric layers, where two layers constitute the boundary layer and the third layer the free troposphere. The 2D4M can describe distinct weather events on a regional scale and calculate the LRTP of chemicals as a function of time during these events. Four weather factors are used to model weather events and their influence on the atmospheric transport of chemicals: (1) temperature, (2) wind speed and mixing dynamics of the troposphere, (3) hydroxyl radical concentrations and (4) precipitation. We have modeled the impact of variability in each of these factors on LRTP of pollutants during a front event associated with a low pressure period that interrupts a dominant high pressure system. The physico-chemical properties of the pollutant determine which specific weather factors contribute most to variability in transport potential during the event. Volatile and multimedia chemicals are mainly affected by changing atmospheric mixing conditions, wind speeds and OH radical concentrations, while semivolatile substances are also affected by temperature. Low-vapor-pressure pollutants that are particle-associated, and water-soluble pollutants are most strongly affected by precipitation. Some chemical pollutants are efficiently transported from the boundary layer into the upper troposphere during the modeled low pressure event and are transported by much higher wind speeds than in the boundary layer. Our model experiments show that the transport potential of volatile, multimedia and semivolatile compounds is significantly increased during a front event as a result of efficient tropospheric mixing and fast wind speeds in the upper troposphere, whereas low-volatility and hydrophilic chemicals are largely scavenged from the atmosphere. In future LRTP assessment of chemical contaminants as required by the Stockholm Convention and the convention on long-range transboundary air pollution, it is therefore advised to prioritize volatile, multimedia and semivolatile chemicals that are identified in initial screening.     

What environmental fate processes have the strongest influence on a completely persistent organic chemical's accumulation in the Arctic?

Fate and transport models can be used to identify and classify chemicals that have the potential to undergo long-range transport and to accumulate in remote environments. For example, the Arctic contamination potential (ACP), calculated with the help of the zonally averaged global transport model Globo-POP, is a numerical indicator of an organic chemical's potential to be transported to polar latitudes and to accumulate in the Arctic ecosystem. It is important to evaluate how robust such model predictions are and in particular to appreciate to what extent they may depend on a specific choice of environmental model input parameters. Here, we employ a recently developed graphical method based on partitioning maps to comprehensively explore the sensitivity of ACP estimates to variations in environmental parameters. Specifically, the changes in the ACP of persistent organic contaminants to changes in each environmental input parameter are plotted as a function of the two-dimensional hypothetical “chemical space” defined by two of the three equilibrium partition coefficients between air, water and octanol. Based on the patterns obtained, this chemical space is then segmented into areas of similar parameter sensitivities and superimposed with areas of high default ACP and elevated environmental bioaccumulation potential within the Arctic. Sea ice cover, latitudinal temperature gradient, and macro-diffusive atmospheric transport coefficients, and to a lesser extent precipitation rate, display the largest influence on ACP-values for persistent organic contaminants, including those that may bioaccumulate within the polar marine ecosystems. These environmental characteristics are expected to be significantly impacted by global climate change processes, highlighting the need to explore more explicitly how climate change may affect the long-range transport and accumulation behavior of persistent organic pollutants.     

The potential future contribution of shipping to acidification of the Baltic Sea

International regulation of the emission of acidic sulphur and nitrogen oxides from commercial shipping has focused on the risks to human health, with little attention paid to the consequences for the marine environment. The introduction of stricter regulations in northern Europe has led to substantial investment in scrubbers that absorb the sulphur oxides in a counterflow of seawater. This paper examines the consequences of smokestack and scrubber release of acidic oxides in the Baltic Sea according to a range of scenarios for the coming decades. While shipping is projected to become a major source of strong acid deposition to the Baltic Sea by 2050, the long-term effect on the pH and alkalinity is projected to be significantly smaller than estimated from previous scoping studies. A significant contribution to this difference is the efficient export of surface water acidification to the North Sea on a timescale of 15–20 years.     

Model simulations of the atmospheric trace metals concentrations and depositions over the Baltic Sea

The results of application of two nested Eulerian atmospheric transport models for investigation of airborne heavy metal pollution are presented. The distribution and deposition over Europe and Baltic Sea region were simulated for Pb, Cd and Zn for 2 two-months periods: June–July 1997 and February–March 1998. The European-wide calculations were made with the ADOM model from the GKSS Research Centre, and the Baltic regional calculations were made with the HILATAR model from the Finnish Meteorological Institute. The one-way 3-D nesting was used: hourly concentrations from the ADOM model were used by the HILATAR as vertically resolved boundary conditions. Input data for both models were taken from the weather forecast model HIRLAM and UBA/TNO emission inventory. This allows interpreting of some diversity in the calculation results in terms of different internal parameterization and spatial resolution of the models. Simulation results were compared with high-resolution atmospheric measurements carried out at four stations in the southern part of the Baltic Sea for the same period. Manifesting quite good agreement with observations, the models missed several high deposition events of Cd observed at coastal station Hel. Study of this phenomenon enabled to build a 2-D probability function for potential location of the unknown Cd source.     

Trace metal element pollution of soil and water resources caused by small-scale metallic ore mining activities: a case study from a sphalerite mine in North China

Trace metal element contamination in mining areas is always a huge environmental challenge for the global mining industry. In this study, an abandoned sphalerite mine near the Yanshan Mountains was selected as subject to evaluate the soil and water contamination caused by small-scale mining. The results show that (1) Pearson correlation matrix and principal component analysis (PCA) results reveal that Zn, Cu, Cd, and Pb were greatly affected by the operation of mines, especially mineral tailings. The contents of trace metal elements decrease with the increase of the distance from the mining area. Zinc, Pb, and Cd were discovered in almost all soil samples, and Zn accounted for about 80% of pollution of the topsoil. (2) The trace element pollution levels in the topsoil of the three villages were ranked as follows: Cd?>?Cu?>?Pb~Zn. The potential ecological risk of farmland around the mine ranges from lower to higher, with Cd being the most harmful. (3) Human health risk assessment results show that trace elements in the mining area pose obvious non-carcinogenic health risks to children while the risks to adults are not equally obvious. The carcinogenic risk of Cd and Cr is within a safe range and does not pose an obvious cancer risk to the population.