Impact of Climate Change on Fish Population Dynamics in the Baltic Sea: A Dynamical Downscaling Investigation

Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.     

Uncertainties in a Baltic Sea Food-Web Model Reveal Challenges for Future Projections

Models that can project ecosystem dynamics under changing environmental conditions are in high demand. The application of such models, however, requires model validation together with analyses of model uncertainties, which are both often overlooked. We carried out a simplified model uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on an Ecopath with Ecosim food-web model of the Baltic Proper (BaltProWeb) and found the model sensitive to both variations in the input data of pre-identified key groups and environmental forcing. Model uncertainties grew particularly high in future climate change scenarios. For example, cod fishery recommendations that resulted in viable stocks in the original model failed after data uncertainties were introduced. In addition, addressing the trophic control dynamics produced by the food-web model proved as a useful tool for both model validation, and for studying the food-web function. These results indicate that presenting model uncertainties is necessary to alleviate ecological surprises in marine ecosystem management.     

Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management

We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960–2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.     

Pyrolysis of aseptic packages (tetrapak) in a laboratory screw type reactor and secondary thermal/catalytic tar decomposition

Pyrolysis of aseptic packages (tetrapak cartons) in a laboratory apparatus using a flow screw type reactor and a secondary catalytic reactor for tar cracking was studied. The pyrolysis experiments were realized at temperatures ranging from 650 °C to 850 °C aimed at maximizing of the amount of the gas product and reducing its tar content. Distribution of tetrapak into the product yields at different conditions was obtained. The presence of H₂, CO, CH₄, CO₂ and light hydrocarbons, HCx, in the gas product was observed. The Aluminum foil was easily separated from the solid product. The rest part of char was characterized by proximate and elemental analysis and calorimetric measurements. The total organic carbon in the tar product was estimated by elemental analysis of tars. Two types of catalysts (dolomite and red clay marked AFRC) were used for catalytic thermal tar decomposition. Three series of experiments (without catalyst in a secondary cracking reactor, with dolomite and with AFRC) at temperatures of 650, 700, 750, 800 and 850 °C were carried out. Both types of catalysts have significantly affected the content of tars and other components in pyrolytic gases. The effect of catalyst on the tetrapack distribution into the product yield on the composition of gas and on the total organic carbon in the tar product is presented in this work.