Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management

Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2–4 °C warming and 50–80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical–biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.     

Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate

In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.     

Echoes from the Past: A Healthy Baltic Sea Requires More Effort

Integrated sediment multiproxy studies and modeling were used to reconstruct past changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Results of natural changes over the past 6000 years in the Baltic Sea ecosystem suggest that forecasted climate warming might enhance environmental problems of the Baltic Sea. Integrated modeling and sediment proxy studies reveal increased sea surface temperatures and expanded seafloor anoxia (in deep basins) during earlier natural warm climate phases, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Under future IPCC scenarios of global warming, there is likely no improvement of bottom water conditions in the Baltic Sea. Thus, the measures already designed to produce a healthier Baltic Sea are insufficient in the long term. The interactions between climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the Baltic Sea should be considered in management, implementation of policy strategies in the Baltic Sea environmental issues, and adaptation to future climate change.     

Climate change effects on river flow to the Baltic Sea

River flow to the Baltic Sea originates under a range of different climate regimes in a drainage basin covering some 1,600,000 km2. Changes to the climate in the Baltic Basin will not only affect the total amount of freshwater flowing into the sea, but also the distribution of the origin of these flows. Using hydrological modeling, the effects of future climate change on river runoff to the Baltic Sea have been analyzed. Four different climate change scenarios from the Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme (SWECLIM) were used. The resulting change to total mean annual river flow to the Baltic Sea ranges from -2% to +15% of present-day flow according to the different climate scenarios. The magnitude of changes within different subregions of the basin varies considerably, with the most severe mean annual changes ranging from -30% to +40%. However, common to all of the scenarios evaluated is a general trend of reduced river flow from the south of the Baltic Basin together with increased river flow from the north.     

Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.     

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, dibenzofurans, biphenyls, naphthalenes and polybrominated diphenyl ethers in the edible fish caught from the Baltic Sea and lakes in Finland

A total of 156 fish composite samples were collected from five areas of the Baltic Sea and from three lakes and analysed for polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). The European Union's maximum permissible level for PCDD/Fs, 4 pg WHO-TEQ/g fresh weight (fw), was exceeded in salmon, river lamprey and Baltic herring. In other species from the Baltic Sea, the 90th percentile was 3.42 pg WHO(PCDD/F)-TEQ/g fw. In the lake fish, the concentrations of PCDD/Fs, PCBs and PCNs were only 29-46% of those in the same species caught from the Baltic Sea, whereas the concentrations of PBDEs in the lake fish were as high as in the Baltic Sea fish. Dioxin-like PCBs contributed to the total dioxin-like toxicity of PCBs and PCDD/Fs by 49+/-12% in all the analysed samples.     

Ecology,evolution, and management strategies of northern pike populations in the Baltic Sea

Baltic Sea populations of the northern pike (Esox lucius) have declined since the 1990s, and they face additional challenges due to ongoing climate change. Pike in the Baltic Sea spawn either in coastal bays or in freshwater streams and wetlands. Pike recruited in freshwater have been found to make up about 50 % of coastal pike stocks and to show natal homing, thus limiting gene flow among closely located spawning sites. Due to natal homing, sub-populations appear to be locally adapted to their freshwater recruitment environments. Management actions should therefore not involve mixing of individuals originating from different sub-populations. We offer two suggestions complying with this advice: (i) productivity of extant freshwater spawning populations can be boosted by modifying wetlands such that they promote spawning and recruitment; and (ii) new sub-populations that spawn in brackish water can potentially be created by transferring fry and imprinting them on seemingly suitable spawning environments.     

Climate change effects on the Baltic Sea borderland between land and sea

Coastal habitats are situated on the border between land and sea, and ecosystem structure and functioning is influenced by both marine and terrestrial processes. Despite this, most scientific studies and monitoring are conducted either with a terrestrial or an aquatic focus. To address issues concerning climate change impacts in coastal areas, a cross-ecosystem approach is necessary. Since habitats along the Baltic coastlines vary in hydrology, natural geography, and ecology, climate change projections for Baltic shore ecosystems are bound to be highly speculative. Societal responses to climate change in the Baltic coastal ecosystems should have an ecosystem approach and match the biophysical realities of the Baltic Sea area. Knowledge about ecosystem processes and their responses to a changing climate should be integrated within the decision process, both locally and nationally, in order to increase the awareness of, and to prepare for climate change impacts in coastal areas of the Baltic Sea.     

A Multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental Index

Since 2001/2002, the correlation between North Atlantic Oscillation index and biological variables in the North Sea and Baltic Sea fails, which might be addressed to a global climate regime shift. To understand inter-annual and inter-decadal variability in environmental variables, a new multivariate index for the Baltic Sea is developed and presented here. The multivariate Baltic Sea Environmental (BSE) index is defined as the 1st principal component score of four z-transformed time series: the Arctic Oscillation index, the salinity between 120 and 200 m in the Gotland Sea, the integrated river runoff of all rivers draining into the Baltic Sea, and the relative vorticity of geostrophic wind over the Baltic Sea area. A statistical downscaling technique has been applied to project different climate indices to the sea surface temperature in the Gotland, to the Landsort gauge, and the sea ice extent. The new BSE index shows a better performance than all other climate indices and is equivalent to the Chen index for physical properties. An application of the new index to zooplankton time series from the central Baltic Sea (Latvian EEZ) shows an excellent skill in potential predictability of environmental time series.     

Consequences of increased terrestrial dissolved organic matter and temperature on bacterioplankton community composition during a Baltic Sea mesocosm experiment

Predicted increases in runoff of terrestrial dissolved organic matter (DOM) and sea surface temperatures implicate substantial changes in energy fluxes of coastal marine ecosystems. Despite marine bacteria being critical drivers of marine carbon cycling, knowledge of compositional responses within bacterioplankton communities to such disturbances is strongly limited. Using 16S rRNA gene pyrosequencing, we examined bacterioplankton population dynamics in Baltic Sea mesocosms with treatments combining terrestrial DOM enrichment and increased temperature. Among the 200 most abundant taxa, 62 % either increased or decreased in relative abundance under changed environmental conditions. For example, SAR11 and SAR86 populations proliferated in combined increased terrestrial DOM/temperature mesocosms, while the hgcI and CL500-29 clades (Actinobacteria) decreased in the same mesocosms. Bacteroidetes increased in both control mesocosms and in the combined increased terrestrial DOM/temperature mesocosms. These results indicate considerable and differential responses among distinct bacterial populations to combined climate change effects, emphasizing the potential of such effects to induce shifts in ecosystem function and carbon cycling in the future Baltic Sea.     

Simulated distributions of Baltic Sea-ice in warming climate and consequences for the winter habitat of the Baltic ringed seal

Sea-ice in the Baltic Sea in present and future climates is investigated. The Rossby Centre Regional Atmosphere-Ocean model was used to perform a set of 30-year-long time slice experiments. For each of the two driving global models HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3, one control run (1961-1990) and two scenario runs (2071-2100) based upon the SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios were conducted. The future sea-ice volume in the Baltic Sea is reduced by 83% on average. The Bothnian Sea, large areas of the Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga, and the outer parts of the southwestern archipelago of Finland will become ice-free in the mean. The presented scenarios are used to study the impact of climate change on the Baltic ringed seal (Phoca hispida botnica). Climate change seems to be a major threat to all southern populations. The only fairly good winter sea-ice habitat is found to be confined to the Bay of Bothnia.     

Future Nutrient Load Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Due to Climate and Lifestyle Changes

Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate.     

Testing the Potential for Predictive Modeling and Mapping and Extending Its Use as a Tool for Evaluating Management Scenarios and Economic Valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB)

We evaluated performance of species distribution models for predictive mapping, and how models can be used to integrate human pressures into ecological and economic assessments. A selection of 77 biological variables (species, groups of species, and measures of biodiversity) across the Baltic Sea were modeled. Differences among methods, areas, predictor, and response variables were evaluated. Several methods successfully predicted abundance and occurrence of vegetation, invertebrates, fish, and functional aspects of biodiversity. Depth and substrate were among the most important predictors. Models incorporating water clarity were used to predict increasing cover of the brown alga bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus and increasing reproduction area of perch Perca fluviatilis, but decreasing reproduction areas for pikeperch Sander lucioperca following successful implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Despite variability in estimated non-market benefits among countries, such changes were highly valued by citizens in the three Baltic countries investigated. We conclude that predictive models are powerful and useful tools for science-based management of the Baltic Sea.     

Climate Warming and Pikeperch Year-Class Catches in the Baltic Sea

Climate change scenarios concerning the Baltic Sea predict increase in surface water temperatures. Pikeperch (Sander lucioperca (L.)) inhabits the coastal areas of the northern Baltic Sea and is an important fish species for the Finnish fisheries. The year-class strength of pikeperch varies strongly between years and significantly depends on water temperature. We aimed to study the effects of changing temperature conditions on pikeperch fisheries and distribution based on commercial catch data from the period 1980–2008 in the Finnish coastal areas of the Baltic Sea. The results indicated that warmer summers will produce stronger pikeperch year-classes that consequently contribute significantly to the future catches. The average temperature in June–July explained 40% of the variation in the year-class catches in the Gulf of Finland and 73% in July–August in the Archipelago Sea. During the study period, the distribution of pikeperch catches expanded toward north along the coasts of the Bothnian Sea.     

Linking Climate Trends to Population Dynamics in the Baltic Ringed Seal: Impacts of Historical and Future Winter Temperatures

A global trend of a warming climate may seriously affect species dependent on sea ice. We investigated the impact of climate on the Baltic ringed seals (Phoca hispida botnica), using historical and future climatological time series. Availability of suitable breeding ice is known to affect pup survival. We used detailed information on how winter temperatures affect the extent of breeding ice and a climatological model (RCA3) to project the expected effects on the Baltic ringed seal population. The population comprises of three sub-populations, and our simulations suggest that all of them will experience severely hampered growth rates during the coming 90 years. The projected 30 730 seals at the end of the twenty-first century constitutes only 16 % of the historical population size, and thus reduced ice cover alone will severely limit their growth rate. This adds burden to a species already haunted by other anthropogenic impacts.     

Interannual variability of phyto-bacterioplankton biomass and production in coastal and offshore waters of the Baltic Sea

The microbial part of the pelagic food web is seldom characterized in models despite its major contribution to biogeochemical cycles. In the Baltic Sea, spatial and temporal high frequency sampling over three years revealed changes in heterotrophic bacteria and phytoplankton coupling (biomass and production) related to hydrographic properties of the ecosystem. Phyto- and bacterioplankton were bottom-up driven in both coastal and offshore areas. Cold winter temperature was essential for phytoplankton to conform to the successional sequence in temperate waters. In terms of annual carbon production, the loss of the spring bloom (diatoms and dinoflagellates) after mild winters tended not to be compensated for by other taxa, not even summer cyanobacteria. These results improve our ability to project Baltic Sea ecosystem response to short- and long-term environmental changes.     

Climate Change Impact on Riverine Nutrient Load and Land-Based Remedial Measures of the Baltic Sea Action Plan

To reduce eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, all nine surrounding countries have agreed upon reduction targets in the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Yet, monitoring sites and model concepts for decision support are few. To provide one more tool for analysis of water and nutrient fluxes in the Baltic Sea basin, the HYPE model has been applied to the region (called Balt-HYPE). It was used here for experimenting with land-based remedial measures and future climate projections to quantify the impacts of these on water and nutrient loads to the sea. The results suggest that there is a possibility to reach the BSAP nutrient reduction targets by 2100, and that climate change may both aggravate and help in some aspects. Uncertainties in the model results are large, mainly due to the spread of the climate model projections, but also due to the hydrological model.     

Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management

We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960–2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.     

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, dibenzofurans, and biphenyls in the general population in Finland

We measured adipose tissue concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in 420 general Finns living in southern Finland. The mean (median) concentrations of WHO(PCDD/F)-TEQ and WHO(PCB)-TEQ were 29.0 (24.1) and 20.7 (16.7) pg g-1 fat, respectively. The concentrations clearly correlated with age. Expressing the concentrations as a function of subject's ages revealed that the exposure of Finns has declined over the last 30 years. A downward gradient was found in the concentrations from the Baltic Sea coast to inland areas in Finland, and this was assessed to be due to consumption of the Baltic Sea fish, especially Baltic herring. Linear regression models for natural logarithm WHO(PCDD/F)-TEQ, natural logarithm WHO(PCB)-TEQ, and natural logarithm WHO(total)-TEQ, explained 70%, 69%, and 72% of the variability, respectively. Age, lactation, place of residence, and fish consumption frequencies were significant predictors in the models.     

Application of a novel modeling tool with multistressor functionality to support management of organic contaminants in the Baltic Sea

Organic contaminants constitute one of many stressors that deteriorate the ecological status of the Baltic Sea. When managing environmental problems in this marine environment, it may be necessary to consider the interactions between various stressors to ensure that averting one problem does not exacerbate another. A novel modeling tool, BALTSEM-POP, is presented here that simulates interactions between climate forcing, hydrodynamic conditions, and water exchange, biogeochemical cycling, and organic contaminant transport and fate in the Baltic Sea. We discuss opportunities to use the model to support different aspects of chemicals management. We exemplify these opportunities with a case study where two emission-reduction strategies for a chemical used in personal care products (decamethylcyclopentasiloxane) are evaluated, and where the confounding influence of future climate change and eutrophication on the impact of the emission-reduction strategies are assessed.