Role of sea-ice biota in nutrient and organic material cycles in the northern Baltic Sea

This paper compiles biological and chemical sea-ice data from three areas of the Baltic Sea: the Bothnian Bay (Hailuoto, Finland), the Bothnian Sea (Norrby, Sweden), and the Gulf of Finland (Tv?rminne, Finland). The data consist mainly of field measurements and experiments conducted during the BIREME project from 2003 to 2006, supplemented with relevant published data. Our main focus was to analyze whether the biological activity in Baltic Sea sea-ice shows clear regional variability. Sea-ice in the Bothnian Bay has low chlorophyll a concentrations, and the bacterial turnover rates are low. However, we have sampled mainly land-fast level first-year sea-ice and apparently missed the most active biological system, which may reside in deformed ice (such as ice ridges). Our limited data set shows high concentrations of algae in keel blocks and keel block interstitial water under the consolidated layer of the pressure ridges in the northernmost part of the Baltic Sea. In land-fast level sea-ice in the Bothnian Sea and the Gulf of Finland, the lowermost layer appears to be the center of biological activity, though elevated biomasses can also be found occasionally in the top and interior parts of the ice. Ice algae are light limited during periods of snow cover, and phosphate is generally the limiting nutrient for ice bottom algae. Bacterial growth is evidently controlled by the production of labile dissolved organic matter by algae because low growth rates were recorded in the Bothnian Bay with high concentrations of allochthonous dissolved organic matter. Bacterial communities in the Bothnian Sea and the Gulf of Finland show high turnover rates, and activities comparable with those of open water communities during plankton blooms, which implies that sea-ice bacterial communities have high capacity to process matter during the winter period.     

Long-term development of inorganic nutrients and chlorophyll alpha in the open northern Baltic Sea

Eutrophication is an ongoing process in most parts of the Baltic Sea. This article reports on the changes during recent decades of several eutrophication-related variables in the open sea areas surrounding Finland (wintertime nutrient concentrations, wintertime nutrient ratios, and summer time chlorophyll alpha concentrations at the surface). The sum of nitrate- and nitrite-nitrogen ([NO3+NO2]-N) was observed to increase nearly fourfold in the Northern Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Finland and almost double in the Bothnian Sea from the 1960s until the 1980s or 1990s. The increase was followed by a decrease, which was modest in the two former subregions. Phosphate-phosphorus (PO4-P) concentrations followed a similar pattern in the Northern Baltic Proper (threefold increase and subsequent slight decrease) and Bothnian Sea (30% increase and subsequent decrease), but increased throughout the study in the Gulf of Finland, with the present concentration being threefold to the measurements made in the early 1970s. The PO4-P concentration decreased throughout the study in the Bothnian Bay. Silicate-silicon (SiO4-Si) concentrations decreased 30-50% from the early 1970s to the late 1990s and increased 20-40% thereafter in the Northern Baltic Proper, the Gulf of Finland, and the Bothnian Sea. Chlorophyll alpha showed an increase of over 150% in the Northern Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Finland from the 1970s until the early 2000s. In the Bothnian Sea the chlorophyll alpha concentration increased more than 180% from the late 1970s until the late 1990s, and decreased thereafter. According to these long-term observations, the Gulf of Finland and Northern Baltic Proper show clear signs of eutrophication, which may be emphasized by hydrographical changes affecting the phytoplankton communities and thus the algal biomass.     

Denitrification in the river estuaries of the northern Baltic Sea

Estuaries have been suggested to have an important role in reducing the nitrogen load transported to the sea. We measured denitrification rates in six estuaries of the northern Baltic Sea. Four of them were river mouths in the Bothnian Bay (northern Gulf of Bothnia), and two were estuary bays, one in the Archipelago Sea (southern Gulf of Bothnia) and the other in the Gulf of Finland. Denitrification rates in the four river mouths varied between 330 and 905 micromol N m(-2) d(-1). The estuary bays at the Archipelago Sea and the Gulf of Bothnia had denitrification rates from 90 micromol N m(-2) d(-1) to 910 micromol N m(-2) d(-1) and from 230 micromol N m(-2) d(-1) to 320 micromol N m(-2) d(-1), respectively. Denitrification removed 3.6-9.0% of the total nitrogen loading in the river mouths and in the estuary bay in the Gulf of Finland, where the residence times were short. In the estuary bay with a long residence time, in the Archipelago Sea, up to 4.5% of nitrate loading and 19% of nitrogen loading were removed before entering the sea. According to our results, the sediments of the fast-flowing rivers and the estuary areas with short residence times have a limited capacity to reduce the nitrogen load to the Baltic Sea.     

Climate Warming and Pikeperch Year-Class Catches in the Baltic Sea

Climate change scenarios concerning the Baltic Sea predict increase in surface water temperatures. Pikeperch (Sander lucioperca (L.)) inhabits the coastal areas of the northern Baltic Sea and is an important fish species for the Finnish fisheries. The year-class strength of pikeperch varies strongly between years and significantly depends on water temperature. We aimed to study the effects of changing temperature conditions on pikeperch fisheries and distribution based on commercial catch data from the period 1980–2008 in the Finnish coastal areas of the Baltic Sea. The results indicated that warmer summers will produce stronger pikeperch year-classes that consequently contribute significantly to the future catches. The average temperature in June–July explained 40% of the variation in the year-class catches in the Gulf of Finland and 73% in July–August in the Archipelago Sea. During the study period, the distribution of pikeperch catches expanded toward north along the coasts of the Bothnian Sea.     

Climate change effects on river flow to the Baltic Sea

River flow to the Baltic Sea originates under a range of different climate regimes in a drainage basin covering some 1,600,000 km2. Changes to the climate in the Baltic Basin will not only affect the total amount of freshwater flowing into the sea, but also the distribution of the origin of these flows. Using hydrological modeling, the effects of future climate change on river runoff to the Baltic Sea have been analyzed. Four different climate change scenarios from the Swedish Regional Climate Modelling Programme (SWECLIM) were used. The resulting change to total mean annual river flow to the Baltic Sea ranges from -2% to +15% of present-day flow according to the different climate scenarios. The magnitude of changes within different subregions of the basin varies considerably, with the most severe mean annual changes ranging from -30% to +40%. However, common to all of the scenarios evaluated is a general trend of reduced river flow from the south of the Baltic Basin together with increased river flow from the north.     

Dioxin concentrations in sediments of the Baltic Sea--a survey of existing data

Recent survey results for polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs, dioxins) in Baltic Sea sediments from Finland, Sweden and Denmark were merged with previously published Baltic Sea data. Regional distribution of concentration levels, differences in congener patterns, and temporal changes in sediment profiles were examined. One of the main objectives was to study if any major point sources for different PCDD/F congeners could be identified on a regional scale, based on sediment records. The survey confirmed the impact of chlorophenol production derived highly chlorinated PCDF-congeners on the total toxicity in sediments in the Gulf of Finland near the Kymijoki river estuary. Signatures of other point sources or combined point sources pertinent to specific industry branches or particular production processes (such as pulp bleaching, vinyl chloride production, thermal processes) may be discerned. However, the findings did not support any of the known point sources significantly influencing those congeners that are most abundant in Baltic herring and salmon. Instead, regional distributions in the Baltic Sea indicate that atmospheric deposition may act as a major source for those congeners and especially for 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF. There were clear indications of declines in levels in sediment in some areas, but generally the levels of highly chlorinated PCDD/Fs on the northern coast of the Gulf of Finland were still high when compared with other areas of the Baltic Sea. Major areas with data gaps cover the south-eastern and eastern coastal regions of the Baltic Proper and the southern Gulf of Finland.     

Echoes from the Past: A Healthy Baltic Sea Requires More Effort

Integrated sediment multiproxy studies and modeling were used to reconstruct past changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Results of natural changes over the past 6000 years in the Baltic Sea ecosystem suggest that forecasted climate warming might enhance environmental problems of the Baltic Sea. Integrated modeling and sediment proxy studies reveal increased sea surface temperatures and expanded seafloor anoxia (in deep basins) during earlier natural warm climate phases, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Under future IPCC scenarios of global warming, there is likely no improvement of bottom water conditions in the Baltic Sea. Thus, the measures already designed to produce a healthier Baltic Sea are insufficient in the long term. The interactions between climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the Baltic Sea should be considered in management, implementation of policy strategies in the Baltic Sea environmental issues, and adaptation to future climate change.     

Levels of PCDD/F and dioxin-like PCB in Baltic fish of different age and gender

Concentrations of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDF) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) in Baltic Sea fish like herring (Clupea harengus membras), sprat (Sprattus sprattus balticus), perch (Perca fluviatilis), pikeperch (Sander lucioperca) and flounder (Platichthys flesus trachurus) collected from four areas of the Estonian coastal waters are reported. All samples are studied for their relationship between the length (cm) and wet weight (g); length (cm) and age (years); lipid content and dry matter. The level of PCDD/F and PCB concentrations in younger 1-5 years old Baltic herring and sprat collected in 2002-2005 from the eastern and central parts of the Gulf of Finland, Gulf of Riga and Open Baltic Sea (Central Baltic) is related to the fish age and compared with those found in the 1990s. In addition, PCDD/F and PCB concentrations of different age groups herring, sprat, perch, pikeperch and flounder collected in 2003-2004 from the Lake Peipsi, Gulf of Finland, Gulf of Riga and Open Baltic Sea are related also to their age. Consequently, it was manifested that in older Baltic fish the concentrations of PCDD/F and PCB were higher than in the younger age groups. By the help of principle component analysis (PCA) the effect of gender on the concentrations of PCDD/F for the juvenile Baltic herring and sprat collected in 2004-2005 is investigated for the first time. It was summarized that the biological factor age plays a large role for the contamination of the fish with important toxic organohalogenated compounds such as PCDD/F.     

Searching efficient protection strategies for the eutrophied Gulf of Finland: the combined use of 1D and 3D modeling in assessing long-term state scenarios with high spatial resolution

An experiment combining the use of two ecosystem models was conducted to search for effective protection strategies for the Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea). Reference and scenario simulations were first run with a one-dimensional (1D) model for seven main basins of the entire Baltic Sea until steady state was achieved. The obtained basinwise distributions of inorganic nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), as well as sediment labile P, were then used to initiate 5-y simulations with a three-dimensional (3D) ecosystem model. The results suggest that relatively small local load reductions (the "Finland" scenario) would improve only the state of adjacent coastal waters significantly. This would be the case, even for runs covering several decades, which clearly exceed the residence times of nutrients in the Gulf of Finland. A significant decrease from a substantial loading source to the Gulf (the "St. Petersburg" scenario) would decrease cyanobacterial biomasses in the entire Gulf of Finland and also immediately outside it. A reduction in the current Polish nutrient loads would improve the situation in the whole Baltic Proper and cause an extensive decline in cyanobacterial biomasses in the Gulf of Finland, as well. However, it would take several decades until the improvement caused by reducing loads in the "Poland" scenario is seen, while in the "St. Petersburg" scenario the corresponding time lag would only be a few years. Our results suggest that the common water protection policy in the Baltic Sea region should have the largest nutrient sources as its primary target, regardless of their location and country.     

Organohalogen pollutants in herring from the northern Baltic Sea: concentrations, congener profiles and explanatory factors

Organohalogen contaminants were investigated in Baltic herring caught from three catchment areas in the Baltic Sea, off the coasts of Finland. Pools of both small and large herring were analysed for polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB), dibenzo-p-dioxins, dibenzofurans, naphthalenes, camphenes (toxaphene), polybrominated diphenyl ethers and the pesticide DDT and its metabolites. PCB concentrations per fresh weight in small herring were at the same level in all catchment areas, i.e. the Bothnian Bay, the Bothnian Sea and the Gulf of Finland, revealing no hot spots and reflecting most likely long term emissions and atmospheric deposition. Differences in the levels and/or congener profiles of other contaminants between catchment areas may be explained by point sources. Similar concentrations in small and large herring in the Gulf of Finland were possibly due to their common nutrition. In the other areas, differences between small and large herring most likely reflected their different food sources.     

The Effects of Hypoxia on Sediment Nitrogen Cycling in the Baltic Sea

Primary production in the eutrophic Baltic Sea is limited by nitrogen availability; hence denitrification (natural transformation of nitrate to gaseous N₂) in the sediments is crucial in mitigating the effects of eutrophication. This study shows that dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium (DNRA) process, where nitrogen is not removed but instead recycled in the system, dominates nitrate reduction in low oxygen conditions (O₂ <110 μM), which have been persistent in the central Gulf of Finland during the past decade. The nitrogen removal rates measured in this study show that nitrogen removal has decreased in the Gulf of Finland compared to rates measured in mid-1990s and the decrease is most likely caused by the increased bottom water hypoxia.     

Modeling Nutrient Transports and Exchanges of Nutrients Between Shallow Regions and the Open Baltic Sea in Present and Future Climate

We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical-physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961-2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient load scenarios. Modeled nutrient transports followed mainly the large-scale internal water circulation and showed only small circulation changes in the future projections. The internal nutrient cycling and exchanges between shallow and deeper waters became intensified, and the internal removal of phosphorus became weaker in the warmer future climate. These effects counteracted the impact from nutrient load reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The net effect of climate change and nutrient reductions was an increased net import of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to shallow areas in the Baltic proper.     

Relationships between colored dissolved organic matter and dissolved organic carbon in different coastal gradients of the Baltic Sea

Due to high terrestrial runoff, the Baltic Sea is rich in dissolved organic carbon (DOC), the light-absorbing fraction of which is referred to as colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM). Inputs of DOC and CDOM are predicted to increase with climate change, affecting coastal ecosystems. We found that the relationships between DOC, CDOM, salinity, and Secchi depth all differed between the two coastal areas studied; the W Gulf of Bothnia with high terrestrial input and the NW Baltic Proper with relatively little terrestrial input. The CDOM:DOC ratio was higher in the Gulf of Bothnia, where CDOM had a greater influence on the Secchi depth, which is used as an indicator of eutrophication and hence important for Baltic Sea management. Based on the results of this study, we recommend regular CDOM measurements in monitoring programmes, to increase the value of concurrent Secchi depth measurements.     

PCDD/Fs and PCBs in Baltic herring during the 1990s

Baltic herring samples caught from the Baltic Sea during the spring periods of 1993-1994 and 1999 were analysed for polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDF), and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB). For analyses, 1570 individual herring were combined to 120 pools. Correlations between concentrations of congeners 1,2,3,7,8-PeCDD, 1,2,3,7,8-PeCDF, 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF, and 2,3,4,6,7,8-HxCDF, and age of herring were the strongest (r>0.8) followed by correlations between PCB congeners PCB 105, 118, 126, 156, 169 and 180 (r>0.7), and age of herring. Due to higher fat percentage in herring in the Gulf of Bothnia the concentrations of PCDD/Fs and PCBs on fresh weight (fw) basis were higher than in herring in the Gulf of Finland. The concentrations of WHO(PCDD/F)-TEQs ranged from 1 to 27 pg/g fw, depending on the age and catchment area of herring, and concentrations of WHO(PCB)-TEQs reached 32 pg/g fw. Between the two studied time points no clear downward trend in concentrations was observed.     

A North Sea and Baltic Sea Model Ensemble Eutrophication Assessment

A method to combine observations and an ensemble of ecological models is suggested to produce a eutrophication assessment. Using threshold values and methodology from the Oslo and Paris Commissions (OSPAR) and the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM), four models are combined to assess eutrophication for the Baltic and North Seas for the year 2006. The assessment indicates that the entire southeastern part of the North Sea, the Kattegat, the Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, and the Gulf of Riga as well as parts of the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, and the Baltic proper may be classified as problem areas. The Bothnian Bay and parts of the Baltic proper, the Bornholm Basin, and the Arkona Basin are classified as potential problem areas. This method is a useful tool for the classification of eutrophication; however, the results depend on the threshold values, and further work is needed within both OSPAR and HELCOM to harmonize these values.     

Sedimentation of PCDD/Fs and PCBs in the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Bothnia,the Baltic Sea

Sediment trap material was collected during May–December in the period 1996–2008 in three coastal areas and four open sea stations in the Finnish territory of the Baltic Sea. The highest sedimentation of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) with a typical source-related congener profile from chlorophenol production dominated by highly chlorinated dibenzofurans was found close to a historical source in the Kymijoki estuary. This was an order of magnitude higher than in other river estuaries and two orders of magnitude higher than in the open sea stations. The sedimentation of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) was also higher in river estuaries than in other areas. No significant decrease over a 12 year period of monitoring was found in concentration or in sedimentation in the Kymijoki estuary. In the western Gulf of Finland, the Archipelago Sea and the Gulf of Bothnia, the dominating congeners, calculated as toxic equivalent (TEQ) in sedimentation were 1, 2, 3, 7, 8-PeCDD and 2, 3, 4, 7, 8-PeCDF, often reported as the main congeners in deposition.     

The Potential of Current- and Wind-Driven Transport for Environmental Management of the Baltic Sea

The ever increasing impact of the marine industry and transport on vulnerable sea areas puts the marine environment under exceptional pressure and calls for inspired methods for mitigating the impact of the related risks. We describe a method for preventive reduction of remote environmental risks caused by the shipping and maritime industry that are transported by surface currents and wind impact to the coasts. This method is based on characterizing systematically the damaging potential of the offshore areas in terms of potential transport to vulnerable regions of an oil spill or other pollution that has occurred in a particular area. The resulting maps of probabilities of pollution to be transported to the nearshore and the time it takes for the pollution to reach the nearshore are used to design environmentally optimized fairways for the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Proper, and south-western Baltic Sea.     

Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate

In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.     

Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.     

Impact of Climate Change on Fish Population Dynamics in the Baltic Sea: A Dynamical Downscaling Investigation

Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.