Ex situ collections and their potential for the restoration of extinct plants

The alarming current and predicted species extinction rates have galvanized conservationists in their efforts to avoid future biodiversity losses, but for species extinct in the wild, few options exist. We posed the questions, can these species be restored, and, if so, what role can ex situ plant collections (i.e., botanic gardens, germplasm banks, herbaria) play in the recovery of plant genetic diversity? We reviewed the relevant literature to assess the feasibility of recovering lost plant genetic diversity with using ex situ material and the probability of survival of subsequent translocations. Thirteen attempts to recover species extinct in the wild were found, most of which used material preserved in botanic gardens (12) and seed banks (2). One case of a locally extirpated population was recovered from herbarium material. Eight (60%) of these cases were successful or partially successful translocations of the focal species or population; the other 5 failed or it was too early to determine the outcome. Limiting factors of the use of ex situ source material for the restoration of plant genetic diversity in the wild include the scarcity of source material, low viability and reduced longevity of the material, low genetic variation, lack of evolution (especially for material stored in germplasm banks and herbaria), and socioeconomic factors. However, modern collecting practices present opportunities for plant conservation, such as improved collecting protocols and improved cultivation and storage conditions. Our findings suggest that all types of ex situ collections may contribute effectively to plant species conservation if their use is informed by a thorough understanding of the aforementioned problems. We conclude that the recovery of plant species currently classified as extinct in the wild is not 100% successful, and the possibility of successful reintroduction should not be used to justify insufficient in situ conservation.     

Relationship between conservation biology and ecology shown through machine reading of 32,000 articles

Conservation biology was founded on the idea that efforts to save nature depend on a scientific understanding of how it works. It sought to apply ecological principles to conservation problems. We investigated whether the relationship between these fields has changed over time through machine reading the full texts of 32,000 research articles published in 16 ecology and conservation biology journals. We examined changes in research topics in both fields and how the fields have evolved from 2000 to 2014. As conservation biology matured, its focus shifted from ecology to social and political aspects of conservation. The 2 fields diverged and now occupy distinct niches in modern science. We hypothesize this pattern resulted from increasing recognition that social, economic, and political factors are critical for successful conservation and possibly from rising skepticism about the relevance of contemporary ecological theory to practical conservation.     

A genoscape-network model for conservation prioritization in a migratory bird

Migratory animals are declining worldwide and coordinated conservation efforts are needed to reverse current trends. We devised a novel genoscape-network model that combines genetic analyses with species distribution modeling and demographic data to overcome challenges with conceptualizing alternative risk factors in migratory species across their full annual cycle. We applied our method to the long distance, Neotropical migratory bird, Wilson's Warbler (Cardellina pusilla). Despite a lack of data from some wintering locations, we demonstrated how the results can be used to help prioritize conservation of breeding and wintering areas. For example, we showed that when genetic, demographic, and network modeling results were considered together it became clear that conservation recommendations will differ depending on whether the goal is to preserve unique genetic lineages or the largest number of birds per unit area. More specifically, if preservation of genetic lineages is the goal, then limited resources should be focused on preserving habitat in the California Sierra, Basin Rockies, or Coastal California, where the 3 most vulnerable genetic lineages breed, or in western Mexico, where 2 of the 3 most vulnerable lineages overwinter. Alternatively, if preservation of the largest number of individuals per unit area is the goal, then limited conservation dollars should be placed in the Pacific Northwest or Central America, where densities are estimated to be the highest. Overall, our results demonstrated the utility of adopting a genetically based network model for integrating multiple types of data across vast geographic scales and better inform conservation decision-making for migratory animals.     

Revisiting two dogmas of conservation science

Conservation science is a morally motivated field, with implicit and explicit values built into its practice. As such, conservationists must engage with conservation ethics to interrogate underlying values. We examine cutting-edge ecological science and contemporary ethics to revisit two conservation norms that have become dogmatic in the field: ecological collectives, but not individual animals, are valuable and anthropomorphism should be staunchly avoided. Emerging studies demonstrate that individuals and their intraspecific variation can be instrumentally valuable for conservation science, and there is an emerging consensus within environmental philosophy around the moral worth of individuals. Thus, we suggest conservation science should explicitly recognize the value of individuals. We also argue that avoiding anthropomorphism is detrimental to conservation because critical anthropomorphism enables a more nuanced scientific approach—allowing conservationists to ask enlightened questions with creativity and compassion. We provide evidence that both dogmatic norms are scientifically and morally outdated and propose new normative values to push conservation towards more robust science and ethical practice.     

Animal agency in wildlife conservation and management

Wildlife conservation and management (WCM) practices have been historically drawn from a wide variety of academic fields, yet practitioners have been slow to engage with emerging conversations about animals as complex beings, whose individuality and sociality influence their relationships with humans. We propose an explicit acknowledgement of wild, nonhuman animals as active participants in WCM. We examined 190 studies of WCM interventions and outcomes to highlight 3 common assumptions that underpin many present approaches to WCM: animal behaviors are rigid and homogeneous; wildlife exhibit idealized wild behavior and prefer pristine habitats; and human–wildlife relationships are of marginal or secondary importance relative to nonhuman interactions. We found that these management interventions insufficiently considered animal learning, decision-making, individuality, sociality, and relationships with humans and led to unanticipated detrimental outcomes. To address these shortcomings, we synthesized theoretical advances in animal behavioral sciences, animal geographies, and animal legal theory that may help conservation professionals reconceptualize animals and their relationships with humans. Based on advances in these fields, we constructed the concept of animal agency, which we define as the ability of animals to actively influence conservation and management outcomes through their adaptive, context-specific, and complex behaviors that are predicated on their sentience, individuality, lived experiences, cognition, sociality, and cultures in ways that shape and reshape shared human–wildlife cultures, spaces, and histories. Conservation practices, such as compassionate conservation, convivial conservation, and ecological justice, incorporate facets of animal agency. Animal agency can be incorporated in conservation problem-solving by assessing the ways in which agency contributes to species’ survival and by encouraging more adaptive and collaborative decision-making among human and nonhuman stakeholders.     

Prioritizing debt conversion opportunities for marine conservation

Incentivized debt conversion is a financing mechanism that can assist countries with a heavy debt burden to bolster their long-term domestic investment in nature conservation. The Nature Conservancy, an international conservation-based nongovernmental organization, is adapting debt conversions to support marine conservation efforts by small island developing states and coastal countries. Prioritizing debt conversion opportunities according to their potential return on investment can increase the impact and effectiveness of this finance mechanism. We developed guidance on how to do so with a decision-support approach that relies on a novel threat-based adaptation of cost-effectiveness analysis. We constructed scenarios by varying parameters of the approach, including enabling conditions, expected benefits, and threat classifications. Incorporating both abatable and unabatable threats affected priorities across planning scenarios. Similarly, differences in scenario construction resulted in unique solution sets for top priorities. We show how environmental organizations, private entities, and investment banks can adopt structured prioritization frameworks for making decisions about conservation finance investments, such as debt conversions. Our guidance can accommodate a suite of social, ecological, and economic considerations, making the approach broadly applicable to other conservation finance mechanisms or investment strategies that seek to establish a transparent process for return-on-investment decision-making.     

Genetically informed captive breeding of hybrids of an extinct species of Galapagos tortoise

Hybridization poses a major challenge for species conservation because it threatens both genetic integrity and adaptive potential. Yet, hybridization can occasionally offer unprecedented opportunity for species recovery if the genome of an extinct taxon is present among living hybrids such that selective breeding could recapture it. We explored the design elements for establishing a captive-breeding program for Galapagos tortoises (Chelonoidis spp.) built around individuals with admixed ancestry involving an extinct species. The target individuals were hybrids between the extinct species from Floreana Island, C. niger, and an extant species, C. becki, which were recently found in the endemic range of C. becki, from Wolf Volcano on Isabela Island. We combined genotypic data from 35 tortoises with high ancestry from C. niger with forward-in-time simulations to explore captive breeding strategies that maximized overall genetic diversity and ancestry from C. niger while accommodating resource constraints, species biology, and the urgency to return tortoises to Floreana Island for facilitating ecosystem restoration. Overall genetic diversity was maximized when in the simulation tortoises were organized in relatively small breeding groups. Substantial amounts of the C. niger genome were captured despite limited resources available for selectively breeding tortoises in captivity. Genetic diversity was maximized when captive-bred offspring were released to the wild rather than being used as additional breeders. Our results provide genetic-based and practical guidance on the inclusion of hybrids with genomic representation from extinct taxa into species restoration programs and informs the ongoing debate on the value of hybrids in biodiversity conservation.     

Linking life history to landscape for threatened species conservation in a multiuse region

Landscape-scale conservation that considers metapopulation dynamics will be essential for preventing declines of species facing multiple threats to their survival. Toward this end, we developed a novel approach that combines occurrence records, spatial–environmental data, and genetic information to model habitat, connectivity, and patterns of genetic structure and link spatial attributes to underlying ecological mechanisms. Using the threatened northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus) as a case study, we applied this approach to address the need for conservation decision-making tools that promote resilient metapopulations of this threatened species in the Pilbara, Western Australia, a multiuse landscape that is a hotspot for biodiversity and mining. Habitat and connectivity were predicted by different landscape characteristics. Whereas habitat suitability was overwhelmingly driven by terrain ruggedness, dispersal was facilitated by proximity to watercourses. Although there is limited evidence for major physical barriers in the Pilbara, areas with high silt and clay content (i.e., alluvial and hardpan plains) showed high resistance to dispersal. Climate subtlety shaped distributions and patterns of genetic turnover, suggesting the potential for local adaptation. By understanding these spatial–environmental associations and linking them to life-history and metapopulation dynamics, we highlight opportunities to provide targeted species management. To support this, we have created habitat, connectivity, and genetic uniqueness maps for conservation decision-making in the region. These tools have the potential to provide a more holistic approach to conservation in multiuse landscapes globally.     

Transforming ecology and conservation biology through genome editing

As the conservation challenges increase, new approaches are needed to help combat losses in biodiversity and slow or reverse the decline of threatened species. Genome-editing technology is changing the face of modern biology, facilitating applications that were unimaginable only a decade ago. The technology has the potential to make significant contributions to the fields of evolutionary biology, ecology, and conservation, yet the fear of unintended consequences from designer ecosystems containing engineered organisms has stifled innovation. To overcome this gap in the understanding of what genome editing is and what its capabilities are, more research is needed to translate genome-editing discoveries into tools for ecological research. Emerging and future genome-editing technologies include new clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR) targeted sequencing and nucleic acid detection approaches as well as species genetic barcoding and somatic genome-editing technologies. These genome-editing tools have the potential to transform the environmental sciences by providing new noninvasive methods for monitoring threatened species or for enhancing critical adaptive traits. A pioneering effort by the conservation community is required to apply these technologies to real-world conservation problems.     

Longitudinal monitoring of neutral and adaptive genomic diversity in a reintroduction

Restoration programs in the form of ex-situ breeding combined with reintroductions are becoming critical to counteract demographic declines and species losses. Such programs are increasingly using genetic management to improve conservation outcomes. However, the lack of long-term monitoring of genetic indicators following reintroduction prevents assessments of the trajectory and persistence of reintroduced populations. We carried out an extensive monitoring program in the wild for a threatened small-bodied fish (southern pygmy perch, Nannoperca australis) to assess the long-term genomic effects of its captive breeding and reintroduction. The species was rescued prior to its extirpation from the terminal lakes of Australia's Murray-Darling Basin, and then used for genetically informed captive breeding and reintroductions. Subsequent annual or biannual monitoring of abundance, fitness, and occupancy over a period of 11 years, combined with postreintroduction genetic sampling, revealed survival and recruitment of reintroduced fish. Genomic analyses based on data from the original wild rescued, captive born, and reintroduced cohorts revealed low inbreeding and strong maintenance of neutral and candidate adaptive genomic diversity across multiple generations. An increasing trend in the effective population size of the reintroduced population was consistent with field monitoring data in demonstrating successful re-establishment of the species. This provides a rare empirical example that the adaptive potential of a locally extinct population can be maintained during genetically informed ex-situ conservation breeding and reintroduction into the wild. Strategies to improve biodiversity restoration via ex-situ conservation should include genetic-based captive breeding and longitudinal monitoring of standing genomic variation in reintroduced populations.     

Long-term demographic and genetic effects of releasing captive-born individuals into the wild

Because of continued habitat destruction and species extirpations, the need to use captive breeding for conservation purposes has been increasing steadily. However, the long-term demographic and genetic effects associated with releasing captive-born individuals with varied life histories into the wild remain largely unknown. To address this question, we developed forward-time, agent-based models for 4 species with long-running captive-breeding and release programs: coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch), golden lion tamarin (Leontopithecus rosalia), western toad (Anaxyrus boreas), and Whooping Crane (Grus americana). We measured the effects of supplementation by comparing population size and neutral genetic diversity in supplemented populations to the same characteristics in unaltered populations 100 years after supplementation ended. Releasing even slightly less fit captive-born individuals to supplement wild populations typically resulted in reductions in population sizes and genetic diversity over the long term when the fitness reductions were heritable (i.e., due to genetic adaptation to captivity) and populations continued to be regulated by density-dependent mechanisms over time. Negative effects for species with longer life spans and lower rates of population replacement were smaller than for species with shorter life spans and higher rates of population replacement. Programs that released captive-born individuals over fewer years or that avoided breeding individuals with captive ancestry had smaller reductions in population size and genetic diversity over the long term. Relying on selection in the wild to remove individuals with reduced fitness mitigated some negative demographic effects, but at a substantial cost to neutral genetic diversity. Our results suggest that conservation-focused captive-breeding programs should take measures to prevent even small amounts of genetic adaptation to captivity, quantitatively determine the minimum number of captive-born individuals to release each year, and fully account for the interactions among genetic adaptation to captivity, population regulation, and life-history variation.     

Improving inferences about private land conservation by accounting for incomplete reporting

Private lands provide key habitat for imperiled species and are core components of function protectected area networks; yet, their incorporation into national and regional conservation planning has been challenging. Identifying locations where private landowners are likely to participate in conservation initiatives can help avoid conflict and clarify trade-offs between ecological benefits and sociopolitical costs. Empirical, spatially explicit assessment of the factors associated with conservation on private land is an emerging tool for identifying future conservation opportunities. However, most data on private land conservation are voluntarily reported and incomplete, which complicates these assessments. We used a novel application of occupancy models to analyze the occurrence of conservation easements on private land. We compared multiple formulations of occupancy models with a logistic regression model to predict the locations of conservation easements based on a spatially explicit social–ecological systems framework. We combined a simulation experiment with a case study of easement data in Idaho and Montana (United States) to illustrate the utility of the occupancy framework for modeling conservation on private land. Occupancy models that explicitly accounted for variation in reporting produced estimates of predictors that were substantially less biased than estimates produced by logistic regression under all simulated conditions. Occupancy models produced estimates for the 6 predictors we evaluated in our case study that were larger in magnitude, but less certain than those produced by logistic regression. These results suggest that occupancy models result in qualitatively different inferences regarding the effects of predictors on conservation easement occurrence than logistic regression and highlight the importance of integrating variable and incomplete reporting of participation in empirical analysis of conservation initiatives. Failure to do so can lead to emphasizing the wrong social, institutional, and environmental factors that enable conservation and underestimating conservation opportunities in landscapes where social norms or institutional constraints inhibit reporting.     

A critical review of the compassionate conservation debate

Compassionate conservation holds that compassion should transform conservation. It has prompted heated debate and has been criticized strongly. We reviewed the debate to characterize compassionate conservation and to philosophically analyze critiques that are recurring and that warrant further critical attention. The necessary elements of compassionate conservation relate to the moral value of sentient animals and conservation and to science and conservation practice. Although compassionate conservation has several nontraditional necessary conditions, it also importantly allows a degree of pluralism in values and scientific judgment regarding animals and conservation practice. We identified 52 specific criticisms from 11 articles that directly critique compassionate conservation. We closely examined 33 of these because they recurred regularly or included substantial questions that required further response. Critics criticized compassionate conservation's ethical foundations, scientific credentials, clarity of application, understanding of compassion, its alleged threat to conservation and biodiversity. Some criticisms, we found, are question begging, confused, or overlook conceptual complexity. These criticisms raise questions for critics and proponents, regarding, for example, equal versus differential intrinsic moral value of different sentient animals (including humans), problems of natural and human-caused suffering of wild animals and predation, and the acceptability of specific conservation practices within compassionate conservation. By addressing recurring and faulty critiques of compassionate conservation and identifying issues for compassionate conservation to address, this review provides a clearer basis for crucial ongoing interdisciplinary dialogue about ethics, values, and conservation.     

Evaluating the success of functional restoration after reintroduction of a lost avian pollinator

Conservation translocation is a common method for species recovery, for which one increasingly frequent objective is restoring lost ecological functions to promote ecosystem recovery. However, few conservation translocation programs explicitly state or monitor function as an objective, limiting the ability to test assumptions, learn from past efforts, and improve management. We evaluated whether translocations of hihi (Notiomystis cincta), a threatened New Zealand passerine, achieved their implicit objective of restoring lost pollination function. Through a pollinator-exclusion experiment, we quantified, with log response ratios (lnR), the effects of birds on fruit set and seed quality in hangehange (Geniostoma ligustrifolium), a native flowering shrub. We isolated the contributions of hihi by making comparisons across sites with and without hihi. Birds improved fruit set more at sites without hihi (lnR = 1.27) than sites with hihi (lnR = 0.50), suggesting other avian pollinators compensated for and even exceeded hihi contributions to fruit set. Although birds improved seed germination only at hihi sites (lnR = 0.22–0.41), plants at sites without hihi had germination rates similar to hihi sites because they produced 26% more filled seeds, regardless of pollination condition. Therefore, although our results showed hihi improved seed quality, they also highlighted the complexity of ecological functions. When an important species is lost, ecosystems may be able to achieve similar function through different means. Our results underscore the importance of stating and monitoring the ecological benefits of conservation translocations when functional restoration is a motivation to ensure these programs are achieving their objectives.     

Efficacy of created and restored nesting sites for the conservation of colonial Laridae in the South of France

By rapidly modifying key habitat components, habitat restoration is at risk of producing attractive cues for animals without providing habitats of sufficient quality. As such, individual fitness components, such as reproduction, could be reduced and restored habitats could become ecological traps. This risk notably appears by using artificial constructions in restoration projects, yet few studies have evaluated their efficacy in a robust way. We investigated this by analyzing 154 islets that were created or restored to improve the conservation status of 7 colonial Laridae species in the South of France. From 2007 to 2016, we compared occupancy dynamics and breeding parameters of these species between the restored sites and 846 unmanaged nesting sites. We also explored species’ preference for different nesting site characteristics and their respective effect on breeding parameters. Restored nesting sites were 2–9 times as attractive as unmanaged sites for all species except the Black-headed Gull (Chroicocephalus ridibundus). Colonization probability was up to 100 times higher in sites already used by other species the previous year and increased with distance to the shore until >0.2 when distance was over 250 m. Abandonment probability was 29–70% lower when breeding was successful the previous year in all species except the Sandwich Tern (Thalasseus sandvicensis). Productivity and breeding success probability were 2 times higher on managed sites. Distance from the shore was an important attractive characteristic of artificial nesting sites in all species. Other nesting site characteristics had species-specific effects on colonization, abandonment, and breeding success. Our results indicate that managed nesting sites are successful conservation tools for colonial Laridae in the Mediterranean and do not act as ecological traps. Our study showed that testing the ecological trap hypothesis is a robust way to evaluate the success of restoration projects of breeding habitats.     

Microtargeting for conservation

Widespread human action and behavior change is needed to achieve many conservation goals. Doing so at the requisite scale and pace will require the efficient delivery of outreach campaigns. Conservation gains will be greatest when efforts are directed toward places of high conservation value (or need) and tailored to critical actors. Recent strategic conservation planning has relied primarily on spatial assessments of biophysical attributes, largely ignoring the human dimensions. Elsewhere, marketers, political campaigns, and others use microtargeting—predictive analytics of big data—to identify people most likely to respond positively to particular messages or interventions. Conservationists have not yet widely capitalized on these techniques. To investigate the effectiveness of microtargeting to improve conservation, we developed a propensity model to predict restoration behavior among 203,645 private landowners in a 5,200,000 ha study area in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (U.S.A.). To isolate the additional value microtargeting may offer beyond geospatial prioritization, we analyzed a new high-resolution land-cover data set and cadastral data to identify private owners of riparian areas needing restoration. Subsequently, we developed and evaluated a restoration propensity model based on a database of landowners who had conducted restoration in the past and those who had not (n = 4978). Model validation in a parallel database (n = 4989) showed owners with the highest scorers for propensity to conduct restoration (i.e., top decile) were over twice as likely as average landowners to have conducted restoration (135%). These results demonstrate that microtargeting techniques can dramatically increase the efficiency and efficacy of conservation programs, above and beyond the advances offered by biophysical prioritizations alone, as well as facilitate more robust research of many social–ecological systems.     

The difference conservation makes to extinction risk of the world's ungulates

Previous studies show that conservation actions have prevented extinctions, recovered populations, and reduced declining trends in global biodiversity. However, all studies to date have substantially underestimated the difference conservation action makes because they failed to account fully for what would have happened in the absence thereof. We undertook a scenario‐based thought experiment to better quantify the effect conservation actions have had on the extinction risk of the world's 235 recognized ungulate species. We did so by comparing species’ observed conservation status in 2008 with their estimated status under counterfactual scenarios in which conservation efforts ceased in 1996. We estimated that without conservation at least 148 species would have deteriorated by one International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List category, including 6 species that now would be listed as extinct or extinct in the wild. The overall decline in the conservation status of ungulates would have been nearly 8 times worse than observed. This trend would have been greater still if not for conservation on private lands. While some species have benefited from highly targeted interventions, such as reintroduction, most benefited collaterally from conservation such as habitat protection. We found that the difference conservation action makes to the conservation status of the world's ungulate species is likely to be higher than previously estimated. Increased, and sustained, investment could help achieve further improvements.     

Conservation impacts of commercial cultivation of endangered and overharvested plants

Overharvesting is one of the greatest threats to species survival. Farming overharvested species is a conservation strategy that can meet growing market demand and conserve wild populations of the target species. This strategy is compatible with the international community's desire to uphold the right of local communities to use biological resources to support their livelihoods. However, studies investigating whether farming can alleviate poaching pressure have focused almost exclusively on animals. To address the shortfall in plant-focused studies, we compiled information on commercial cultivation of threatened plants to assess its conservation benefits. Because China's rising middle class has rapidly intensified demand for wildlife products, we searched the scientific literature published in Chinese (China National Knowledge Infrastructure and Baidu) and in English. We found 32 reports that contained data on 193 internationally or nationally threatened plant species that were under commercial cultivation. These reports showed that cultivations of 82% of the 193 species were sustained by collecting whole plants from the wild periodically or continuously. Although based on a small sample size, species that were maintained in cultivation only through artificial propagation or seeds collected in the wild were likely associated with a reported reduction in wild harvesting of whole plants. Even so, results of correlation analyses suggested that production system, scale, and when a species began being cultivated had little effect on conservation status of the species, either globally or in China. However, species brought into cultivation relatively recently and on a smaller scale were more likely to have undergone a reduction in collecting pressure. Farming of nonmedicinal plants was most problematic for species conservation because wild plants were laundered (i.e., sold as cultivated plants). For effective conservation, policy to guide cultivation operations based on the target species’ biological characteristics, cultural significance, market demand, and conservation status is needed.     

Use of historical and contemporary distribution of mammals in China to inform conservation

A systematic understanding of dynamic animal extinction trajectories for different regions in a nation like China is critically important to developing practical conservation strategies. We explored historical and contemporary changes in terrestrial mammalian diversity to determine how diversity in each of the 5 regions in China has changed over time and to examine the conservation potential of these regions. We used records from databases on Pleistocene mammalian fossils and historical distribution records (1175–2020) for Primates (as a case study) to reconstruct evolutionary and historical distribution trajectories of the 11 orders of terrestrial mammals and to predict their prospective survival based on the national conservation strategy applied. The results indicated that since the Pleistocene, 4–5 mammalian orders have been lost in the northeast, 3 in central China, 2 along the coast, and 1 in the northwest. In the southwest, all 11 orders were maintained. Contemporarily, the coast and southwest had the highest and second-highest species densities. The southwest region and southeastern sections of the northwest region were the most historically and contemporarily diverse areas, which suggests that they should be the first priority for protected area (PA) designation. The central and coastal areas should be secondarily prioritized. In these 2 regions, conservation should focus on human coexistence with nature. Less attention should be paid to the PA in the northeast and western northwest because in these areas ecosystems are depauperate and the climate is harsh. Conservation in these areas should focus principally on avoiding further human encroachment on natural areas. Article impact statement: Historical and contemporary patterns of extinction can be a basis for mammalian conservation strategies.     

Quantifying the probability of detection of wild ungulates with the Judas technique

The Judas technique is often used in control or eradication of particular vertebrate pests. The technique exploits the tendency of individuals to form social groups. A radio collar is affixed to an individual and its subsequent monitoring facilitates the detection of other conspecifics. Efficacy of this technique would be improved if managers could estimate the probability that a Judas individual would detect conspecifics. To calculate this probability, we estimated association rates of Judas individuals with other Judas individuals, given the length of time the Judas has been deployed. We developed a simple model of space-use for individual Judas animals and constrained detection probabilities to those specific areas. We then combined estimates for individual Judas animals to infer the probability that a wild individual could be detected in an area of interest via Judas surveillance. We illustrated the method by using data from a feral goat eradication program on Isla Santiago, Galápagos, and a feral pig eradication program on Santa Cruz Island, California. Association probabilities declined as the proximity between individual areas of use of a Judas pair decreased. Unconditional probabilities of detection within individual areas of use averaged 0.09 per month for feral pigs and 0.11 per month for feral goats. Probabilities that eradication had been achieved, given no detections of wild conspecifics, and an uninformative prior probability of eradication were 0.79 (90% CI 0.22–0.99) for feral goats and 0.87 (90% CI 0.44–1.0) for feral pigs. We envisage several additions to the analyses used that could improve estimates of Judas detection probability. Analyses such as these can help managers increase the efficacy of eradication efforts, leading to more effective effects to restore native biodiversity.