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1.
For water‐resource planning, sensitivity of freshwater availability to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) often is analyzed with “offline” hydrologic models that use precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (Ep) as inputs. Because Ep is not a climate‐model output, an intermediary model of Ep must be introduced to connect the climate model to the hydrologic model. Several Ep methods are used. The suitability of each can be assessed by noting a credible Ep method for offline analyses should be able to reproduce climate models’ ACC‐driven changes in actual evapotranspiration in regions and seasons of negligible water stress (Ew). We quantified this ability for seven commonly used Ep methods and for a simple proportionality with available energy (“energy‐only” method). With the exception of the energy‐only method, all methods tend to overestimate substantially the increase in Ep associated with ACC. In an offline hydrologic model, the Ep‐change biases produce excessive increases in actual evapotranspiration (E), whether the system experiences water stress or not, and thence strong negative biases in runoff change, as compared to hydrologic fluxes in the driving climate models. The runoff biases are comparable in magnitude to the ACC‐induced runoff changes themselves. These results suggest future hydrologic drying (wetting) trends likely are being systematically and substantially overestimated (underestimated) in many water‐resource impact analyses.  相似文献   

2.
Global sensitivity analysis can be used for assessing the relative importance of model parameters on model outputs. The sensitivity of parameters usually indicates a temporal variation due to variation in the environmental conditions (e.g., variation in weather or plant growth). In addition, the size of averaging window by which the outputs of a model are aggregated or averaged may impact parameter sensitivities. In this study, temporal variation of parameters sensitives, model performance, as well as the impact of the size of time‐averaging window on evapotranspiration (ET) prediction using the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) model are investigated. To achieve these goals, an open‐source package named PARAPEX was developed in R and used to perform dynamic sensitivity and model performance analysis of APEX using parallel computation. PARAPEX reduced the computation time from 5,939 to 379 s (using 20 and 1 computation nodes, respectively). The sensitivity analysis results indicated the parameters accounting for the reducing effect of plant cover on evaporation from the soil surface, the effect of soil on the plant root growth, and the effect of cycling and transformation dynamics of organic matter at the top soil layer as the top sensitive parameters based on the mean daily simulated ET and the Nash–Sutcliffe model performance measure. The dynamic performance analysis indicated poor ET predictions by APEX during the growing seasons. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.  相似文献   

3.
Humans will continue to adapt to an increasingly technological world. But are there costs to such adaptations in terms of human well being? Toward broaching this question, we investigated physiological effects of experiencing a HDTV quality real-time view of nature through a plasma display “window.” In an office setting, 90 participants (30 per group) were exposed either to (a) a glass window that afforded a view of a nature scene, (b) a plasma window that afforded a real-time HDTV view of essentially the same scene, or (c) a blank wall. Results showed that in terms of heart rate recovery from low-level stress the glass window was more restorative than a blank wall; in turn, a plasma window was no more restorative than a blank wall. Moreover, when participants spent more time looking at the glass window, their heart rate tended to decrease more rapidly; that was not the case with the plasma window. Discussion focuses on how the purported benefits of viewing nature may be attenuated by a digital medium.  相似文献   

4.
A steady-state space radiant heat model and a stove combustion model are developed to simulate the heat exchanges between various surfaces in the room and the stove and stack surfaces, assuming stiochiometric combustion inside the stove and the exhaust gases flow out through the stack by natural convection. The space heat model calculates the fuel consumption, the stove, stack temperatures, and the mass flow rate of exhaust gases, and provides an opportunity to study the energy efficiency of the stove, while satisfying the constraints of thermal comfort. Fanger (1982) Fanger, P. O. 1982. Thermal Comfort Analysis and Applications in Engineering, 156198. New York: McGraw Hill.  [Google Scholar] model and a radiation exchange model between various surfaces of the space, the thermal building energy balance, and stove combustion process is applied to determine the mean radiant temperature (MRT) and the extent of thermal comfort as determined by predicted mean vote (PMV).

The overall model is validated by performing experiments in a room placed inside a controlled outdoor environment. The room is heated using a domestic stove common for rural areas of Lebanon and the MRT, the room air temperature, the walls and window temperatures are measured at two stove positions. The measured MRT, the average room temperature, and the wall surface temperatures agreed within ±7% of values predicted by the numerical model.

A parametric study is performed to optimize the stove and occupant locations in the room where adequate comfort level can be maintained at lower fuel consumption levels. The values of MRT and PMV depend strongly on the position of the radiant stove heater and stack with respect to the cold window and the occupant location. It is shown that it is possible to save up to 15% in stove fuel consumption by changing the stove position in the room with respect to the window and to the person, while maintaining the same level of comfort.  相似文献   

5.
A detailed sensitivity analysis was conducted to quantify the contributions of various emission sources to ozone (O3), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and regional haze in the Southeastern United States. O3 and particulate matter (PM) levels were estimated using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system and light extinction values were calculated from modeled PM concentrations. First, the base case was established using the emission projections for the year 2009. Then, in each model run, SO2, primary carbon (PC), NH3, NOx or VOC emissions from a particular source category in a certain geographic area were reduced by 30% and the responses were determined by calculating the difference between the results of the reduced emission case and the base case.The sensitivity of summertime O3 to VOC emissions is small in the Southeast and ground-level NOx controls are generally more beneficial than elevated NOx controls (per unit mass of emissions reduced). SO2 emission reduction is the most beneficial control strategy in reducing summertime PM2.5 levels and improving visibility in the Southeast and electric generating utilities are the single largest source of SO2. Controlling PC emissions can be very effective locally, especially in winter. Reducing NH3 emissions is an effective strategy to reduce wintertime ammonium nitrate (NO3NH4) levels and improve visibility; NOx emissions reductions are not as effective. The results presented here will help the development of specific emission control strategies for future attainment of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards in the region.  相似文献   

6.
The spatial integrity of a habitat or landscape is determined by the occurrence of habitat fragments and of perforations inside them. A landscape is said to have less spatial integrity with increasing numbers of fragments and perforations. The Euler number (ε) is a numerical measure of spatial integrity, based upon the difference |n f n p | between the number of fragments (n f ) and the number of perforations (n p ). In this contribution, ε is evaluated, and an improvement is presented as a new index ε*, which is a combination of two metrics (ε i , ε d ) based on n f and n p . The term ε i quantifies the intensity of perforation and/or fragmentation. The term ε d measures the extent to which fragmentation predominates perforation, and vice versa. The intensity and dominance measures are combined into an Euclidean distance measure, generating the new ensemble value ε*, calculated as ε*= (n f +n p )−1√[1 +n f 2]. Use, sensitivity, and application of ε*, ε i , and ε d are illustrated using percolation maps. Application of the new metrics by environmental scientists is encouraged because (1) no negative values can be generated with ε*, ε i , and ε d ; (2) the range of ε*, ε i , and ε d is fixed; (3) process dominance and intensity are both assessed; (4) ε*, ε i , and ε d are easy to calculate and to interpret; and (5) ε* is not only based upon |n f n p |, as ε is. Guidelines for practical use by means of a biplot of ε i and ε d are given.  相似文献   

7.
Humans have severely impacted riparian ecosystems through water diversions, impoundments, and consumptive uses. Effective management of these important areas is becoming an increasingly high priority of land managers, particularly as municipal, industrial, and recreational demands for water increase. We examined radial tree growth of four riparian tree species (Pinus jeffreyi, Populus trichocarpa, Betula occidentalis, and Pinus monophylla) along Bishop Creek, California, and developed models relating basal area increment (BAI) and relative basal area increment (RBAI) to climatic and stream flow variables. Between years 1995–1999, univariate regression analysis with stream flow explained 29 to 61% of the variation in BAI and RBAI among all species except P. trichocarpa; growth by P. trichocarpa was not significantly related to stream flows over this period. Stepwise linear regression indicated that species responded differently to climatic variables, and models based on these variables explained between 33 to 86% of variation in BAI and RBAI during the decade of the 1990s. We examined branch growth of P. trichocarpa for sensitivity to differences in stream flow regimes and found that annual branch growth did not vary between a high- and low-flow site, but that annual branch growth was significantly higher in wet years with greater stream flows. Our results support the establishment of site-specific management goals by land managers that take into account all of the important tree species present in riparian ecosystems and their differential responses to altered hydrologic condition. Instream flow requirements for maintaining tree growth and vigor are only one of the species-specific responses that need to be evaluated, and these assessments should attempt to separate experimentally stream-flow (managed) controls from climatic (unmanaged) controls on growth.  相似文献   

8.
He, Laien and Gregory V. Wilkerson, 2011. Improved Bankfull Channel Geometry Prediction Using Two‐Year Return‐Period Discharge. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1298–1316. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00567.x Abstract:  Bankfull discharge (Qbf) and bankfull channel geometry (i.e., width, Wbf; mean depth, Dbf; and cross‐section area, Abf) are important design parameters in stream restoration, habitat creation, mined land reclamation, and related projects. The selection of values for these parameters is facilitated by regional curves (regression models in which Qbf, Wbf, Dbf, and Abf are predicted as a function of drainage area, Ada). This paper explores the potential for the two‐year return‐period discharge (Q2) to improve predictions of Wbf, Dbf, and Abf. Improved predictions are expected because Q2 estimates integrate the effects of basin drainage area, climate, and geology. For conducting this study, 29 datasets (each representing one hydrologic region) spanning 14 states in the United States were analyzed. We assessed the utility of using Q2 by comparing statistical measures of regression model performance (e.g., coefficient of determination and Akaike’s information criterion). Compared to using Ada, Q2 is shown to be a “clearly superior” predictor of Wbf, Dbf, and Abf, respectively, for 21, 13, and 25% of the datasets. By contrast, Ada yielded a clearly superior model for predicting Wbf, Dbf, and Abf, respectively, for 0, 0, and 14% of the datasets. Our conclusion is that it alongside with developing conventional regional curves using Ada it is prudent to develop regional curves that use Q2 as an independent variable because in some cases the resulting model will be superior.  相似文献   

9.
Foreign direct investment is an engine of economic growth. However, it may affect environmental quality (improve or deteriorate it), depending on the context. Under a multivariate framework, this paper aims to investigate the relationship between foreign direct investment and deforestation for Sub‐Sahara African countries with economic growth, trade openness and urbanization as additional determinants of deforestation. The analyses reveal that all variables are non‐stationary and cointegrated based on recent panel data techniques. On applying dynamic ordinary least squares, the long‐run results suggest the validity of the pollution haven hypothesis for some countries, and that of the pollution halo hypothesis for other countries. The findings are also mixed across Sub‐Sahara African countries for trade openness and urbanization. The results from this study suggest that Sub‐Sahara African countries should continue attracting foreign direct investment, while a certain number of them should put more emphasis on controlling deforestation associated with foreign direct investment inflows to limit greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere.  相似文献   

10.
A methodology has been developed to carry out an integrated oil spill vulnerability index, V, for coastal environments. This index takes into account the main physical, biological and socio-economical characteristics by means of three intermediate indexes. Three different integration methods (worst-case, average and survey-based) along with ESI-based vulnerability scores, VESI, proposed for the Cantabrian coast during the Prestige oil spill, have been analyzed and compared in terms of agreement between the classifications obtained with each one for this coastal area. Results of this study indicate that the use of the worst-case index, VR, leads to a conservative ranking, with a very poor discrimination which is not helpful in coastal oil spill risk management. Due to the homogeneity of this coastal stretch, the rest of the methods, VI, VM and VESI, provide similar classifications. However, VM and VI give more flexibility allowing three indexes for each coastal segment and including socio-economic aspects. Finally, the VI procedure is proposed here as the more advisable as using this index promotes the public participation that is a key element in the implementation of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (IZCM).  相似文献   

11.
The potential of periwinkle shell (PS) in enhancing the microbial break down of crude oil spilled in soil were studied. The results revealed that the counts of crude oil degrading bacteria in oil-polluted soil fortified with PS were higher than the counts in unfortified soil. The rates and total extent of crude oil biodegradation in the soil were stimulated by the amendment. About 43.4 percent of crude oil was degraded in unfortified soil after 16 days as compared to 70.1 percent oil biodegradation, which occurred in PS fortified soil during the same period. These values were significantly (P>0.05) different from each other. Amendment of the soil with PS also raised the pH of the soil from acidic to alkaline range. The crude oil degrading microorganisms identified in PS amended soil were of the genus Pseudomonas, Bacillus, Micrococcus, Acinetobacter, Penicillium, Aspergillus, Mucor and Rhizopus. Similarly, Pseudomonas, Bacillus, Micrococcus, Mucor, Aspergillus and Penicillium were identified as crude oil degrading microorganisms in unamended soil. The bacteria formed either stable or unstable emulsions, suggesting that the organisms produce surface-active agents (biosurfactants) during the biodegradation process. The results of this study indicate that PS can be used in reclaiming oil-polluted soil.  相似文献   

12.
ABSTRACT: New formulas and procedures under the framework of the Rational Formula are presented that are applicable to flood design problems for a small basin if the geometry of the basin can be approximated as an ellipse or a rhombus. Instead of making the assumption in the traditional rational formula that the rainfall is uniformly distributed in the whole duration (Dw) of a design storm, the new method modifies that assumption as: the rainfall is uniformly distributed only in each time interval CD) of the design storm hyetograph, thus extending the rational formula applicable to the case that the rainfall duration is less than the basin concentration time (Tc). The new method can be applied to estimate the flood design peak discharge, and to generate the flood hydrograph simultaneously. The derivation of the formulas is provided in detail in this paper, and an example is also included to illustrate how to apply the new formulas to the flood design problems in small basins.  相似文献   

13.
Abstract: The Loess Plateau region in northwestern China has experienced severe water resource shortages due to the combined impacts of climate and land use changes and water resource exploitation during the past decades. This study was designed to examine the impacts of climatic variability on streamflow characteristics of a 12‐km2 watershed near Tianshui City, Gansu Province in northwestern China. Statistic analytical methods including Kendall’s trend test and stepwise regression were used to detect trends in relationship between observed streamflow and climatic variables. Sensitivity analysis based on an evapotranspiration model was used to detect quantitative hydrologic sensitivity to climatic variability. We found that precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET) and streamflow (Q) were not statistically significantly different (p > 0.05) over the study period between 1982 and 2003. Stepwise regression and sensitivity analysis all indicated that P was more influential than PET in affecting annual streamflow, but the similar relationship existed at the monthly scale. The sensitivity of streamflow response to variations of P and PET increased slightly with the increase in watershed dryness (PET/P) as well as the increase in runoff ratio (Q/P). This study concluded that future changes in climate, precipitation in particular, will significantly impact water resources in the Loess Plateau region an area that is already experiencing a decreasing trend in water yield.  相似文献   

14.
Extensive surveys were conducted to explore the diversity of fishes, distribution patterns, abundance, threat, and habitat status in the upper, middle, and lower stretch of river Gomti, a tributary of river Ganga. Altogether 56 fish species belonging to 20 families and 42 genera were collected from various sampling sites. Of the 56 species, five belong to the ‘endangered’ (EN) category and 11 belong to the vulnerable (VU) category. Six major categories of habitat were identified and pattern of fish assemblage and dominant genera in each habitat studied. Considerable differences were observed in the fish species richness and relative abundance (RA) of the species in the different sampling sites of river Gomti. Shannon–Wiener biodiversity index has been calculated for the fishes indicating considerable variation (p < 0.05) across the river. Apart from Indian Major Carps (Labeo rohita, Catla catla, Cirrhinus mrigala), Chitala chitala, Notopterus notopterus, Ompok pabda, O. bimaculatus, Labeo bata, L. calbasu, Cirrhinus reba, Channa marulius, Bagarius bagarius, and Clupisoma garua were the important species. All the species have been reported for the first time in this river. Indiscriminate catch, poisoning, using of fine mesh sized nets, dumping of sewage, siltation, water abstraction, changing land use pattern, decreased water discharge, and exotic species threaten the fish diversity. Urgent need exists for taking up research on the priority fish species and their habitat. Restoration measures have been proposed based on ecosystem scale approach for fish biodiversity conservation.  相似文献   

15.
Abstract: Climate generator (CLIGEN) is widely used in the United States to generate long‐term climate scenarios for use with agricultural systems models. Its applicability needs to be evaluated for use in a new region or climate. The objectives were to: (1) evaluate the reproducibility of the latest version of CLIGEN v5.22564 in generating daily, monthly, and yearly precipitation depths at 12 stations, as well as storm patterns including storm duration (D), relative peak intensity (ip), and peak intensity (rp) at 10 stations dispersed across the Loess Plateau and (2) test whether an exponential distribution for generating D and a distribution‐free approach for inducing desired rank correlation between precipitation depth and D can improve storm pattern generations. Mean absolute relative errors (MAREs) for simulating daily, monthly, annual, and annual maximum daily precipitation depth across all 12 stations were 3.5, 1.7, 1.7, and 5.0% for the mean and 5.0, 4.5, 13.0, and 13.6% for the standard deviations (SD), respectively. The model reproduced the distributions of monthly and annual precipitation depths well (p > 0.3), but the distribution of daily precipitation depth was less well produced. The first‐order, two‐state Markov chain algorithm was adequate for generating precipitation occurrence for the Loess Plateau of China; however, it underpredicted the longest dry periods. The CLIGEN‐generated storm patterns poorly. It underpredicted mean and SD of D for storms ≥10 mm by ?60.4 and ?72.6%, respectively. Compared with D, ip, and rp were slightly better reproduced. The MAREs of mean and SD were 21.0 and 52.1% for ip, and 31.2 and 55.2% for rp, respectively. When an exponential distribution was used to generate D, MAREs were reduced to 2.6% for the mean and 7.8% for the SD. However, ip estimation became much worse with MAREs being 128.9% for the mean and 241.1% for the SD. Overall, storm pattern generation needs improvement. For better storm pattern generation for the region, precipitation depth, D, and rp may be generated correlatively using Copula methods.  相似文献   

16.
Surface water and air volatile organic compound (VOC) data from 10 U.S. Geological Survey monitoring sites were used to evaluate the potential for direct transport of VOCs from the atmosphere to urban streams. Analytical results of 87 VOC compounds were screened by evaluating the occurrence and detection levels in both water and air, and equilibrium concentrations in water (Cws) based on the measured air concentrations. Four compounds (acetone, methyl tertiary butyl ether, toluene, and m‐ & p‐xylene) were detected in more than 20% of water samples, in more than 10% of air samples, and more than 10% of detections in air were greater than long‐term method detection levels (LTMDL) in water. Benzene was detected in more than 20% of water samples and in more than 10% of air samples. Two percent of benzene detections in air were greater than one‐half the LTMDL in water. Six compounds (chloroform, p‐isopropyltoluene, methylene chloride, perchloroethene, 1,1,1‐trichloroethane, and trichloroethene) were detected in more than 20% of water samples and in more than 10% of air samples. Five VOCs, toluene, m‐ & p‐xylene, methyl tert‐butyl ether (MTBE), acetone, and benzene were identified as having sufficiently high concentrations in the atmosphere to be a source to urban streams. MTBE, acetone, and benzene exhibited behavior that was consistent with equilibrium concentrations in the atmosphere.  相似文献   

17.
Aim of the present study is to determine the in-vitro cell cytotoxic effect of native and transformed cancer drugs (cyclophosphamide and etoposide) using three different white rot fungi (Ganoderma lucidum, Phanerochaete chrysosporium and Trametes versicolor). At 3, 6, 9, 12 and 15 days, experiments were done on a mouse monocyte macrophage cell line (Raw 264.7). After biodegradation, the altered compounds were found to be harmful to the Raw 264.7 cells. The maximal cytotoxicity of cyclophosphamide transformed products (TPs) were determined to be 2.4%, 7.3% and 7% respectively, against G. lucidum, P. chrysosporium and T. versicolor, respectively. With G. lucidum, P. chrysosporium and T. versicolor, the etoposide toxicity was 1.5%, 8% and 2.7% respectively. P. chrysosporium-mediated biodegradation resulted in the maximum toxicity, at 8%, on the 12th day for etoposide and 7.3% on the 3rd day for cyclophosphamide. After biodegradation by fungi, the toxicity of these two anticancer agents was reduced in the form of metabolites, but each fungus showed unique capacity for toxicity removal.  相似文献   

18.
Given that they represent the most economical option for disposing of refuse, waste landfills are widespread in urban areas. However, landfills generate air and water pollution and require restoration for landscape development. A number of unsanitary waste landfills have caused severe environmental problems in developing countries. This study aimed to investigate the colonization status of different tree species on waste landfills to assess their potential for restoring unsanitary landfills in South Korea. Plot surveys were conducted using 10 × 10-m quadrats at seven waste landfill sites: Bunsuri, Dugiri, Hasanundong, Gomaeri, Kyongseodong, Mojeonri, and Shindaedong. We determined the height, diameter at breast height (DBH), and number of tree species in the plots, and enumerated all saplings ≤1 m high. Because black locust, Robinia pseudoacacia, was the dominant tree species in the waste landfills, we measured the distance from the presumed mother plant (i.e., the tallest black locust in a patch), height, and DBH of all individuals in black locust patches to determine patch structure. Robinia pseudoacacia, Salix koreensis, and Populus sieboldii formed canopy layers in the waste landfills. The basal area of black locust was 1.51 m2/ha, and this species had the highest number of saplings among all tree species. The diameter of the black locust patches ranged from 3.71 to 11.29 m. As the patch diameter increased, the number of regenerated saplings also tended to increase, albeit not significantly. Black locust invaded via bud banks and spread clonally in a concentric pattern across the landfills. This species grew well in the dry habitat of the landfills, and its growth rate was very high. Furthermore, black locust has the ability to fix nitrogen symbiotically; it is therefore considered a well-adapted species for waste landfills. Eleven woody species were selected for screening: Acer palmatum, Albizzia julibrissin, Buxus microphylla var. koreana, Ginkgo biloba, Hibiscus syriacus, Koelreuteria paniculata, Ligustrum obtusifolium, Liriodendron tulipifera, Pinus koraiensis, Pinus thunbergii, and Sophora japonica. As a result of a comparison of the total ratio (sum of shoot extension and diameter growth at the landfill relative to a reference site) and mortality, six species (Liriodendron tulipifera, Albizzia julibrissin, Ligustrum obtusifolium, Buxus microphylla var. koreana, Hibiscus syriacus, and Sophora japonica), which had a total ratio >1 and experienced low mortality, are recommended as potentially suitable species for waste landfill remediation. We suggest that mixed plantations of ubiquitous adaptable species and naturally occurring black locust will enhance the landscape through synergistic effects.  相似文献   

19.
Over the last fifty years, almost half of the steppe rangeland in the Central Anatolian Region of Turkey (CAR) has been converted to cropland without an equivalent reduction in grazing animals. This shift has led to heavy grazing pressure on rangeland vegetation. A study was initiated in June 2003 using 6 multiscale Modified-Whittaker plots to determine differences in plant composition between areas that have not been grazed in 27 years with neighboring grazed plant communities. A total of 113 plant species were identified in the study area with the ungrazed plots containing 32 plants more than the grazed plots. The major species were Astragalus acicularis, Bromus tomentellus, Festuca valesiaca, Genista albida, Globularia orientalis, Poa bulbosa, and Thymus spyleus ssp rosulans. Grazing impacts on forbs were more pronounced than for grasses and shrubs. Based on Jaccard’s index, there was only a 37% similarity of plant species between the two treatments. Our study led to four generalizations about the current grazing regime and long-term exclosures in the steppe rangeland around the study area: (1) exclosures will increase species richness, (2) heavy grazing may have removed some plant species, (3) complete protection from grazing for a prolonged period of time after a long history of grazing disturbance may not lead to an increase in desirable plant species with a concomitant improvement in range condition, and (4) research needs to be conducted to determine how these rangelands can be improved.  相似文献   

20.
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