1556年华县大地震前的大旱灾分析

简述了1556年发生在陕西华县大地震概况和大震前小震活动异常平静的事实,分析讨论了大震前的大旱灾及其物理机制,强调指出重视研究大震前的大旱问题,对当前的防震减灾工作具有重要的现实意义。     

破坏性地震事件前后的紧急事务处理和震后紧急救援

根据我国目前的地震应急现状,提出了破坏性地震事件前后的紧急事务处理和震后紧急救援的有关问题以及二者之间的关系,论述了国际救援在大城市发生特大破坏性地震中的作用.     

Public participation in NGO-oriented communities for disaster prevention and mitigation (N-CDPM) in the Longmen Shan fault area during the Wenchuan and Lushan earthquake periods

ABSTRACT

The Longmen Shan fault area in southwest China is one of the world’s most active earthquake zones. The epicenters of the two most recent earthquakes, the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (8.0?Ms) and the 2013 Lushan earthquake (7.0?Ms), both of which caused serious losses, were only 85?km apart. Community-based disaster risk reduction is the foundation of the disaster management system pyramid and is critical to the success of ‘sustainable hazard mitigation’. Based on multiple collaborative stakeholder perspectives, this paper examines public participation in an NGO-oriented Community for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (N-CDPM) in the period between the two earthquakes as a multi-stage problem; N-CDPM establishment, normal operations, disaster testing, and continuous improvement. Multi-stage field research was conducted in the affected areas in the Longmen Shan fault area to examine the collaboration in each stage, after which the differences were compared across the four stages based on eight key indices; scales, core stakeholders, core network stability, mean number of lines, mean collaborative level, governments, and individual and public organization participation. The government participation, individual participation, and public organization participation are then discussed. This paper provides a novel research approach to CDPM in multiple earthquake regions and gives rich insights into the collaboration between the government and the public for N-CDPM.     

Earthquake insurance pricing: a risk‐based approach

Flat earthquake premiums are ‘uniformly’ set for a variety of buildings in many countries, neglecting the fact that the risk of damage to buildings by earthquakes is based on a wide range of factors. How these factors influence the insurance premiums is worth being studied further. Proposed herein is a risk‐based approach to estimate the earthquake insurance rates of buildings. Examples of application of the approach to buildings located in Taipei city of Taiwan were examined. Then, the earthquake insurance rates for the buildings investigated were calculated and tabulated. To fulfil insurance rating, the buildings were classified into 15 model building types according to their construction materials and building height. Seismic design levels were also considered in insurance rating in response to the effect of seismic zone and construction years of buildings. This paper may be of interest to insurers, actuaries, and private and public sectors of insurance.     

对陕西榆林地区三次矿震灾害的认识

2004年10月14日、11月21日和11月29日,陕西省地震台网记录到在陕西省榆林地区的神木县和府谷县相继发生了ML4.2、ML3.2和ML3.4级地震.经陕西省地震局榆林地震考察组落实,三次地震都是典型的煤炭采空区塌陷引起的矿震事件.2004年10月14日的ML4.2级矿震也是我国目前记录到的煤炭采空区塌陷引起的最大矿震.     

云南地区地震灾害损失的基本特征

云南是我国地震灾害损失最为严重的地区之一。地震灾害损失评估标准实施以来，云南地区积累了较丰富的地震灾害损失评估资料。以1992～2001年云南地区破坏性地震的灾害损失评估资料为基础，分析了地震灾害损失随时间的变化特征，初步探讨了地震震级与受灾人口、人员伤亡和地震灾害经济损失等方面的关系。结果表明：(1)随着社会经济的不断发展和社会财富的不断积累，等同地震能量所造成的经济损失呈逐渐增大的趋势；(2)在空间上，由于各灾区的经济发展状况不同，等同地震能量所造成的灾害损失存在着地区差异性；(3)地震灾害损失随震级增大而增大，但二者之间并非简单的线性关系，其中生命线工程及其它特殊工程结构、重大工程设施、大型企业等的经济损失随震级的增大而以更大的比例增大。     

Towards an earthquake-resilient world: from post-disaster reconstruction to pre-disaster prevention

ABSTRACT

Destructive earthquakes in urban or rural areas around the world have caused severe damage to local societies. Pre-disaster prevention and post-disaster reconstruction can significantly reduce the impact of earthquakes on communities. To explore the popular research topics and trends in this area, CiteSpace was used to develop a knowledge map visualization. It was found that the main research into earthquake disaster prevention and reconstruction has been focused on disaster risk reduction planning, disaster mitigation knowledge, participatory disaster governance, and community resilience building. In this Special Issue, there were six distinctive earthquake disaster research papers that covered scientific, social, and institutional aspects. It was concluded that to reduce the effects of earthquake disasters, an interdisciplinary research approach and systems thinking is needed. The investigation also revealed that there has been a paradigm shift from post-disaster reconstruction to pre-disaster prevention to build community and urban resilience.     

Compliance with the building byelaws and earthquake safety in urban areas of Bihar: progress,constraints and challenges

The adoption and enforcement of building codes is considered the most effective tool in safeguarding lives and property against earthquakes. There would appear to be a vital regulatory role for government in the enforcement of building codes, but this is somewhat at odds with the neoliberal agenda of ‘rolling back the state’. This paper explores constraints to the implementation of building codes in the context of changing roles and responsibilities of local authorities in Bihar in India. In-depth interviews were conducted with key stakeholders across major urban centres in north Bihar. Some factors, such as: code complexity; competition between the public and private sectors for qualified personnel; and low public risk perception were found to be less significant in Bihar than has been noted elsewhere, while other factors such as: the cost of earthquake-resistant measures; political interests; corrupt practices; and lack of government capacity were important. Additional factors were also revealed by the research, some of which are exacerbated by the neoliberal climate of urban governance. While the recent 2014 byelaws represent an improvement in the system and a degree of re-regulation, ambiguities create opportunities for failures arising from ‘normalised irresponsibility’.     

行星位置与全球性灾害事件时间预测模拟

根据某类事件发生时的行星空间位置分布,可以从理论上建立该事件的时间预测模型.指出这一方法有可能通过计时历史资料的归算,提供未来灾害事件发生时刻的预测信息.以地震为例,给出了该方法的具体思路.处理了1900-1996年中国震级6.5及以上级的311次地震资料,据此:(1)统计得出了历史时期的地震时间与行星位置分布的相关性;(2)利用这种相关性并以7星组合作1997-2010年间6.5及以上级地震的模拟预测,给出了6个可能的危险日期;(3)采用1997年1月至2006年6月的35次M6.5级地震对模型作检验,表明总计14种单星和组合模型中日、月、水星、金星和天王星等五种模型稍好,而冥王星和海王星模型则不理想.(4)指出该模型不适用于较大区域,因其难以提供较精确的地点信息.此外,预测精度还与步长和确定的危险日期的数量有关.     

Disasters and ‘conditions of possibility’: rethinking causation through an analysis of earthquakes in Nepal

What causes a disaster's aftermath? Scholars have increasingly turned to historical approaches that link outcomes to pre-disaster sociopolitical dynamics. Disasters lead to ‘critical junctures’ that ‘trigger’ events that unfold in the wake of the initial phenomenon. This paper argues that the ‘critical junctures’ paradigm shares limitations with ‘path dependency’ theory from which it is derived, namely a tendency towards historicism—a functionalist teleology better able to explain continuity than change. As an alternative, this analysis draws on Michel Foucault's understanding of ‘conditions of possibility’ as a way of rethinking agency/causation, moving away from individual subjects, events, or even historical conditions towards, instead, the new, radically destabilised ‘epistemological field’ emerging in the disaster's aftermath. This paper examines a series of devastating earthquakes in Nepal to consider how post-disaster ‘epistemological fields’ present new ‘conditions of possibility’ within which new ideas, actions, and outcomes become thinkable and possible in ways that pre-disaster historical conditions could not have predicted.     

云南鲁甸5.1、5.0级地震震害分析

通过对鲁甸5.1、5.0级两次地震后112个居民点的震害调查,分别给出了5.1级地震等烈度分布图及5.1、5.0级地震等烈度综合分布图;分析了场地条件及其震害、各类房屋的震害特征、典型结构房屋的震害原因以及生命线工程震害。结果表明,两次地震形成较大范围的7度破坏区和少数调查点有8度破坏现象的主要原因是:震源浅,地表振动强烈;盆地区广泛分布有煤层、膨胀土、淤泥土和松散的粉砂、粉土等不良影响地层,且埋藏浅;震区建筑结构简易,抗震能力极差;两次地震震害叠加。最后对灾区恢复重建提出了4条建议。     

“一带一路”地区百余年地震时空演变特征

本研究基于“一带一路”地区1900-2018年间≥5级地震事件空间数据,采用小波周期与热区识别方法,分析了该地区地震灾害的空间分布格局与时间周期性特征,并识别了地震灾害空间热区及其演变特征。研究表明:(1)1900-2018年,“一带一路”地区地震发生频次表现出波动性上升的“三段式”分布,主要发生在亚欧大陆-喜马拉雅山周围的亚欧板块与印度洋板块的交界处以及俄罗斯东部沿海、印度尼西亚东南部的环太平洋地区;(2)地震频发地区和震级较强地区均具有多时间尺度的周期变化特征,及一定的空间聚集性,并逐渐演变成高发热区和高强热区;(3)中国和印度尼西亚发生频率远高于其他国家,而缅甸、孟加拉、马尔代夫等国发生频次较低,但其震级强度相对较大。研究结果提示我们未来针对“一带一路”地区基础设施的投资应适当规避地震频发地区及未来潜在的高强热区,同时加强国际间减灾防灾合作,从而更好的降低或预防“一带一路”地区基础设施建设的地震灾害风险。     

嵊州M4.0地震地下流体异常及跟踪预报研究

1998年 8月 17日 0 1时 5 4分 ,在浙江省嵊州市 (2 9°33′N ,12 0°5 0′E)发生了一次M 4 0地震。该次地震震级虽小 ,但震前本省仅有的 3口地下流体观测井都出现了突出的中、短期异常。震前 ,用地下流体方法分别作了中期、短期跟踪预报 ,从中得到了一些有益的科学启示。     

Stigma in science: the case of earthquake prediction

This paper explores how earthquake scientists conceptualise earthquake prediction, particularly given the conviction of six earthquake scientists for manslaughter (subsequently overturned) on 22 October 2012 for having given inappropriate advice to the public prior to the L'Aquila earthquake of 6 April 2009. In the first study of its kind, semi‐structured interviews were conducted with 17 earthquake scientists and the transcribed interviews were analysed thematically. The scientists primarily denigrated earthquake prediction, showing strong emotive responses and distancing themselves from earthquake ‘prediction’ in favour of ‘forecasting’. Earthquake prediction was regarded as impossible and harmful. The stigmatisation of the subject is discussed in the light of research on boundary work and stigma in science. The evaluation reveals how mitigation becomes the more favoured endeavour, creating a normative environment that disadvantages those who continue to pursue earthquake prediction research. Recommendations are made for communication with the public on earthquake risk, with a focus on how scientists portray uncertainty.     

地震预报研究的发展展望

对40年来地震科学家就地震预报工作所做出的努力进行了回顾总结;对国际间在地震预报方面下一步的工作做了介绍;同时,对我国今后的地震预报发展战略提出了自己的看法。认为我国地震预报的发展应认真考虑以下3个问题:(1)基础理论研究与地震预报实践紧密结合的问题;(2)地震预报观测技术在地震预报工作中的角色定位问题;(3)“地震预报实验场”在地震预报实践中的作用问题。     

地震救援能力的一项指标--地震灾害发布时间的研究

地震救援能力一般很难给定.本文提出利用地震死亡人数的报出时间作为衡量指标来评价地震的救援能力.首先,需要指出,地震发生后存在"黑箱"时间,即地震发生至灾情报出时间;其次,报出灾情后救灾进入"灰箱"状态,而地震死亡人数报出时间长度与总死亡人数有关;再次,死亡人数基本报出时间的长短,反映了救援能力的强弱.     

不同地震序列类型地震的特征性质研究

收集整理了1993年以来的地震资料,建立M5地震和M6地震两个样本组,选取发震断层、震源复杂性、视应力3个参数,使用模糊等价关系的聚类分析方法对地震进行分类,把具有相同性质的地震归为同一类,研究孤立型、主余型、多震型地震的某些特征性质。结果表明:1孤立型地震性质:震源错动方式简单,应力降高或很高,视应力低或很低,震源区介质非均匀程度低;2多震型地震性质:对于走滑断层地震,震源错动方式复杂,应力降低或很低,视应力偏高或很高,震源区介质非均匀程度较高。     

江苏-南黄海地区断裂带附近的小震活动与主震的关系

通过对 1 970年以来 ,江苏南黄海地区的 9次ML>5 4中强地震发生前的中小震活动分析 ,发现该地区ML>5 4中强地震 (本文称为主震 )发生前 2～ 3年内均有一系列ML3 0左右中小地震发生 ,而且这些中小地震的空间分布与主震在同一断裂带上。根据断裂带上的中小震活动情况 ,运用地震活动性的有关分析方法 ,对未来地震进行外推 ,并进行检验。得出 ,可以将断裂带附近发生的一些ML3 0左右的小震 ,视为该断裂带上将要发生的主震     

红吉水库诱发地震分析研究

在国内外水库诱震研究成果的基础上,结合红吉水库地震、天然应力场状态、地震活动性和水库运行条件等实际资料,采用概率统计法和模糊评判法,初步判定红吉水库具有小概率的诱发地震危险性,库区附近的北北东向和北北西向断裂是可能的发震位置,最大可能诱发的地震震级为4级.