浅议巨灾险的证券化

在全球巨灾发生的和造成的损失都不断上升的趋势下，仅仅靠保险公司自身袂务已难以满足日趋庞大的赔付要求。巨灾风险证券化为解决保险公司赔付能力不足问题提供了一条有效出路。相信巨灾风险证券化作为一种新的融资方式，可为我国保险业的发展以及肆市场的完善提供了一个新思路。     

全球增暖对自然灾害的可能影响

近年来，气候对环境的影响已受到全球科学家越来越多的重视，中国是一个有１１亿人口的大国，生态环境较为脆弱，全球变暖将严重影响我国社会与经济生活的各个方面。本文初步研究了全球变暖对自然灾害的可能影响。结果表明，在大气ＣＯ２含量加倍的情况下，全球变暖将可能导致暴雨频度和洪涝风险增加，西北干旱趋势仍将延续；森林火灾、台风、滑坡与泥石泫灾害可能加剧；农林病虫害危害增加，范围扩大。同时，全球变暖导致的海平面上     

巨灾对全球贸易的影响评估

随着经济全球化的不断发展,巨灾对全球贸易的影响问题越来越受到人们的普遍关注,为此该文构建了全球的贸易引力模型,结合1980-2012年全球各个国家与地区的GDP、相互距离、人口、国土面积、共同边界、共同语言和巨灾发生频次等数据,并采用泊松伪最大似然法估计了模型中的参数,确定了贸易对不同影响因子的弹性。结果表明:巨灾对全球贸易的影响是显著的,发生在进口国家与地区巨灾频次的增加,会导致其进口量的增加;发生在出口国家与地区巨灾频次的增加,会导致其出口量的减少。且从全球平均水平来看,巨灾对出口的抑制作用大于对进口的促进作用。     

灾难模型化及其国外主要开发商

简略分析了灾难模型化和它在保险业中的应用;介绍了当前国外从事灾难模型化的主要研发单位,包括独立的模型化公司、大学研究所、再保险公司、再保险中介经纪公司和政府机构。同时收集了一些最近灾难模型化些文献,希望这些信息能有助于同行在我国减灾保险方面的研究。     

关于新西兰政府应对新冠肺炎疫情的分析

正2019年底至今,新冠肺炎疫情以前所未有的迅猛之势席卷了世界各地。截至2020年8月8日,肆虐全球的新冠病毒已致病近1950万人,累计死亡病例逾72.2万,而全球确诊病例数每天仍在大幅攀升。位于南半球偏安一隅的新西兰,在这次疫情中也未能幸免,尽管新西兰政府在应对疫情上功过参半,     

一带一路沿线企业受新冠疫情影响状况调查与对策建议

新冠疫情给全球经济造成重大影响。针对一带一路沿线地区中国企业走出去的影响评估需求,基于2020年11月28日-12月03日与“一带一路”沿线合作企业进行了全国性的问卷调查,对新冠肺炎疫情在行业和企业层面造成的影响状况、企业面临的问题及政策诉求进行了分析。主要结论包括:疫情对企业的冲击呈现出不均衡性,小规模企业受到的负面影响更大;加工制造业所受负面影响较大,高科技业、电商受负面影响较小;企业策略多随当下市场需求而定,期待提供更多融资政策支持,以及更具行业针对性的政策支持。对此提出以下建议:①建立企业面对突发事件的应急管理体系;②加快创新力度,提高互联网与数字化能力;③完善贸易合作机制,加强企业韧性;④积极探索加工制造业的新模式;⑤建议更加关注进出口市场。     

公共支出减损巨灾影响的理论与政策研究——兼谈促进巨灾保险事业发展的财政政策

近几十年来,随着经济的发展和人口的增加,全球自然灾害越来越频繁,也越来越严重,人为导致的突发事件造成的损害也越来越大。对此,从理论上探讨了巨灾出现的经济影响,并从实际出发分析了巨灾造成的社会损失。在此基础上,从公共财政的角度提出了减灾的财税政策,及促进巨灾保险事业发展的财税措施。     

联邦德国自然灾害保险述评

灾害保险作为减轻灾害损失的重要手段,受到了国际社会的广泛关注。本文评述了德国的自然灾害保险发展体系及保险人、保险业及国家在灾害保险中的职能关系,可为我国开展灾害保险提供借鉴。     

浅谈拓展地震保险

对于我们这个面临人口剧增、能源短缺、环境破坏三大威胁的星球,自然灾害及其向人类的挑战从来没有象今天这么强烈。以地震灾害为例,人类迄今对其孕育和发生过程的认识依然十分肤浅,而地震灾害的隐患却始终存在,且一旦发生便会造成人畜伤亡、财物损失,还会影响社会经济的发展。地震灾害的潜在危险性、地震灾害损失的不定性以及人们对地震灾害保险的需要,无疑将促使保险业的发展。随着我国大陆新的地震活跃期的来临,拓展地震保险业务则更加迫切和重要。     

我国农业保险发展现状

近20多年来,我国的农业保险业有了长足的进步。在借鉴国外成功经验的基础上,全国部分地区也发展了具有地方特色的农业保险。就我国农业保险的现状及现行模式进行了分析。     

Contesting the crisis narrative: epidemic accounts in Sierra Leone,Tanzania, and Democratic Republic of the Congo

Scientists and global commentators watched African countries closely in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, predicting an impending disaster: the virus was projected to overwhelm already weak health systems. These expectations were informed by imaginaries of Africa as an inevitable site of epidemic disaster. This paper draws on accounts from Sierra Leone, Tanzania, and Democratic Republic of the Congo to contrast global catastrophe framings with everyday imaginations and experiences of crisis and crisis management. Utilising ethnographic research, the paper initially explores how COVID-19 was understood in relation to previous epidemics, from HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) to Ebola, as well as political conflict. It then considers how global crisis narratives both inform and are in tension with everyday collective and personal experiences. The paper brings these empirical reflections into a conversation with theoretical debates on the discursive construction of crisis and its effects, and argues that these tensions matter because crisis framings have consequences.     

A multi-scale coastal vulnerability index: A tool for coastal managers?

Coastal hazard management involves the assessment of vulnerability in natural and human environments. Indices incorporating a diversity of indicators have therefore been used extensively to provide spatial analyses of the degree of vulnerability. Such indices are typically applied at global and national scales, and they involve varying degrees of simplification and aggregation of information. The degree of simplification that is desirable depends on the management scale, and higher resolution is required at the local compared to the global scale. To investigate the implications of spatial scale in depicting coastal hazard risk, coastal vulnerability indices were developed at national (Northern Ireland), local authority and site levels. Variables were separated into three sub-indices: a coastal characteristics sub-index concerned with the resilience and susceptibility of the coast to erosion, a coastal forcing sub-index to characterize the forcing variables contributing to wave-induced erosion and a socio-economic sub-index to assess the infrastructure potentially at risk. The three sub-indices were merged to calculate the overall index, which is portrayed in the form of colour-coded vulnerability maps. While a common tripartite index could be employed at national, regional and local scales, the nature of the data used to quantify many of the variables varies according to the scale of management. Some important local variations in vulnerability are masked by simplifications at the national scale. For some variables more detailed information is available as the spatial resolution of the study increases, while others become obsolete as data are of insufficient resolution to differentiate real variability at more detailed scales. The results highlight the importance of spatial scale in developing indices of vulnerability: while a common index architecture can be applied, the selection of variables must take account of the scale at which the hazard is to be assessed. It is likely that limits on index development will also be imposed by data availability at various scales.     

Risk factors and the psychological impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak: perspectives and experiences of Iranian healthcare workers on the frontline

Frontline healthcare workers (HCWs) looking after COVID-19 patients are at high risk of developing mental health problems. Both preventive and interventional initiatives are essential, therefore, to maintain and improve the mental health of HCWs and ultimately to enhance the quality of care that they provide. This qualitative content analysis study, conducted in Iran between September 2020 and February 2021, involved the gathering of data on the issue through face-to-face interviews with 22 HCWs working directly with COVID-19 patients. Data analysis led to the generation of 163 codes, 45 categories (16 risk factors and 29 consequences), and 9 themes. Overall, the results suggest that caring for a patient with COVID-19 is associated with positive and negative psychological impacts. Measures such as increasing sensitivity to crisis situations, self-adjustment skills training, and identifying signs of job burnout owing to moral conflicts can reduce or eliminate the risk of negative psychological consequences among HCWs.     

Risk and vulnerability indicators at different scales:: Applicability, usefulness and policy implications

This paper outlines selected approaches to measuring risk and vulnerability to hazards of natural origin using indicators and indices. It discusses their applicability, usefulness and policy implications. Indicators and indices have been developed on different scales and for different purposes. The paper will briefly introduce three global approaches to disaster-risk identification and will juxtapose them with one local approach in order to examine the differences concerning the functions and the purpose of the assessment as well as their impact for policy development. In contrast to an earlier comparative analysis of the three global disaster-risk indicator programmes by Mark Pelling in 2004, which focused primarily on the methodologies used, this paper places more emphasis on aspects of applicability and policy implications and outlines challenges and limitations of the different approaches. Since the assessment and mapping of human vulnerability is less developed than hazard assessment work [Pelling M., 2004. Visions of Risk: A Review of International Indicators of Disaster Risk and its Management. UNDP—Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BRCP), Geneva], this paper focuses in greater depth on how the approaches capture vulnerability. Conclusions will be formulated on how to further enhance vulnerability identification, particularly at the sub-national level.     

Risk and vulnerability indicators at different scales: Applicability,usefulness and policy implications

This paper outlines selected approaches to measuring risk and vulnerability to hazards of natural origin using indicators and indices. It discusses their applicability, usefulness and policy implications. Indicators and indices have been developed on different scales and for different purposes. The paper will briefly introduce three global approaches to disaster-risk identification and will juxtapose them with one local approach in order to examine the differences concerning the functions and the purpose of the assessment as well as their impact for policy development. In contrast to an earlier comparative analysis of the three global disaster-risk indicator programmes by Mark Pelling in 2004, which focused primarily on the methodologies used, this paper places more emphasis on aspects of applicability and policy implications and outlines challenges and limitations of the different approaches. Since the assessment and mapping of human vulnerability is less developed than hazard assessment work [Pelling M., 2004. Visions of Risk: A Review of International Indicators of Disaster Risk and its Management. UNDP—Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BRCP), Geneva], this paper focuses in greater depth on how the approaches capture vulnerability. Conclusions will be formulated on how to further enhance vulnerability identification, particularly at the sub-national level.     

基于可靠度和灵敏度的结构局部地震易损性分析

结构的地震易损性分析是结构地震风险分析的核心内容，传统的方法主要是分析结构的整体地震易损性。提出了结构局部地震易损性的概念，通过构造结构局部性能指标与其参数之间的一个新的功能函数，给出了局部地震易损性的可靠度表达式；根据可靠性灵敏度的概念，提出了构造结构局部性能指标概率密度函数的新方法，并详细推导了结构可靠指标对局部性能指标参数的灵敏度表达式。算例表明，所提方法可极大地提高结构地震易损性分析的计算效率。     

泥石流灾情综合评估模式

泥石流灾情综合评估模式是在灾情绝对评估的基础上建立的。首先，建立了泥石流灾情评估的步骤框图；然后依据已有的泥石流灾情评估指标体系对各项指标进行量化分析处理，将得了各灾情评估指标公值分布及其量纲换算法，确定了反映直接损失的灾情绝对评估指标和相对评估指标（直接经济损失占灾区国民收入的比例），并对绝对和相对评估结果的等级进行了划分；最后，建立了绝对评估和相对评估结果对比的灾情综合评估模式。经过实例应用验证，评估结果能较好地反映灾情。     

区域农业水分供应脆弱性分析及定量损失评估

采用积分湿度指数方法,建立了区域农业水分供应脆弱性分析模型,并以山东省为案例进行了应用研究,结果表明:无论春、夏、秋季还是年平均的积分湿度指数值,均呈从东南到西北递减的趋势,说明自然降水对农业需水的满足程度沿该方向递减。对山东省而言,农业用水的满足程度在季节上也存在较大的差异,夏季降水在农业满足程度方面最高、秋季次之、春季最差。由于气候因子的年变异较大,积分湿度指数的年变异亦大;根据作物产量的形成为一动态过程,作物整个生育期内的每一个生长阶段都对其最终产量有一定的贡献,利用积分回归模式对作物全生育期中每一旬降水因子与产量的定量关系进行模拟分析,得到了主要农作物全生育期内每旬降水对最终产量的贡献系数。根据每旬降水对产量的贡献系数和作物受旱指标,建立了作物旱灾损失评估模型。     

灾害风险评估中区域经济暴露价值的估算研究 ——以青海省为例

地区资本存量作为经济暴露指标,其准确核算是科学判断和施行精准投资的重要内容,也是评估灾害风险的关键基础.综合我国灾害风险评估及地区资本存量研究数据缺乏的现状以及青海省的地区特点,采用永续盘存法,首次尝试在地级市部门级的精细尺度上估算2003—2019年青海省地级市资本存量价值的变化,并对结果进行验证.研究结果表明:①西...     

东北地区玉米低温冷害综合指标研究

在以往对低温冷害指标研究的基础上，将低温冷害成分不同的发育阶段进行分析，结合发育期日数和初霜日研究等，讨论分析了东北地区玉米的低温冷害问题，提出一个玉米低温冷害综合指标。该指标生物学和农学意义明确，计算较为方便，便于在预报上的应用。