Energy technology modelling of major carbon abatement options

The International Energy Agency Energy Technologies Perspectives (ETP) model is used to assess the prospects for carbon abatement options, including carbon capture and storage, up to 2050. Three main scenarios are considered: a Baseline scenario with current energy policies, an accelerated technology scenario that seeks to return energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2050 to their level in 2005, and a scenario for which CO₂ emissions are reduced at 50% of current levels by 2050. To reach these emissions reduction targets, annual global CO₂ emissions in the year 2050 must be reduced by 35 GtCO₂ to 48 GtCO₂ compared to the Baseline scenario. The analysis presented here shows that a broad portfolio of emissions reducing technologies will need to be deployed across all economic sectors of the global economy to reach these targets. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one of the suite of technologies employed across the globe to reach these targets. CCS adoption occurs in many aspects of the global economy and accounts for 14–19% of all emissions reductions. The total amount of CO₂ captured and stored in deep geologic reservoirs up to 2050 ranges between 5.1 GtCO₂ and 10.4 GtCO₂ in these two climate policy scenarios. Up to 2030, more than half of total CCS deployment takes place in OECD countries. After 2035, emerging economies account for more than half of total CCS use. This paper also demonstrates that as the climate policy becomes more stringent it will be necessary for CCS to deploy more extensively in many different industries outside of the electric power sector which often receives the most attention in discussions of CCS's role in addressing climate change.     

Panel heterogeneous distribution analysis of trade and modernized agriculture on CO2 emissions: The role of renewable and fossil fuel energy consumption

In line with the global target of reducing climate change and its impact, this study explored the causal relationship between CO₂ emissions, modernized agriculture, trade openness, aggregate and disaggregate energy consumption in 14 African countries from 1990–2013 using a panel quantile estimation procedure. The empirical results showed that value addition to agricultural commodities declines CO₂ emissions in countries with high pollution levels. The study revealed a positive nexus between CO₂ emissions and energy consumption homogeneously distributed across quantiles. Trade openness was found to lower CO₂ emissions in countries with lower and higher levels of environmental pollution. While fossil fuel energy consumption was found to exacerbate CO₂ emissions, renewable energy consumption confirmed its mitigating effect on environmental pollution. The institution of climate‐smart agricultural options will sustainably increase productivity and income while adapting to climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Diversification of energy technologies with clean and modern energy sources like renewables avoid the over‐dependence on fossil fuels for agricultural purposes. Trade policies can stimulate flows of technology and investment opportunities for specialization in production and economies of scale. Hence, the consideration of policies that boost agricultural sector productivity and create an efficient market for international trade in Africa will help in improving livelihoods.     

A model for the CO2 capture potential

Global warming is a result of increasing anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, and the consequences will be dramatic climate changes if no action is taken. One of the main global challenges in the years to come is therefore to reduce the CO₂ emissions.Increasing energy efficiency and a transition to renewable energy as the major energy source can reduce CO₂ emissions, but such measures can only lead to significant emission reductions in the long-term. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a promising technological option for reducing CO₂ emissions on a shorter time scale.A model to calculate the CO₂ capture potential has been developed, and it is estimated that 25 billion tonnes CO₂ can be captured and stored within the EU by 2050. Globally, 236 billion tonnes CO₂ can be captured and stored by 2050. The calculations indicate that wide implementation of CCS can reduce CO₂ emissions by 54% in the EU and 33% globally in 2050 compared to emission levels today.Such a reduction in emissions is not sufficient to stabilize the climate. Therefore, the strategy to achieve the necessary CO₂ emissions reductions must be a combination of (1) increasing energy efficiency, (2) switching from fossil fuel to renewable energy sources, and (3) wide implementation of CCS.     

The Climate Value of Cycling

The reduction of CO₂ emissions constitutes one of the largest challenges of the current era. Sustainable transportation, and especially cycling, can contribute to the mitigation of CO₂ emissions since cycling possesses an intrinsic zero‐emission value. Few studies have been conducted that appraise the CO₂ reduction potential of cycling. Opportunity costs enable the estimation of avoided CO₂ emissions resulting from bicycle trips. The methodology developed in this research allows the attribution of a climate value to cycling by substituting bicycle trips with their most likely alternative transportation modes and calculating the resulting additional CO₂ emissions. The methodology uses data on the current modal shares of cycling mobility, the competition of cycling with other transportation modes, and CO₂ emission factors to calculate the climate value of cycling. When it is assumed that the avoided CO₂ emissions of cycling mobility could be traded on financial carbon markets, the climate value of cycling represents a monetary value. Application of the methodology to the case of Bogotá, Colombia — a city with a current bicycle modal share of 3.3% on a total of 10 million daily trips — results in a climate value of cycling of 55,115 tons of CO₂ per year, corresponding to an economic value of between 1 and 7 million US dollars when traded on the carbon market.     

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND PUBLIC PERCEPTION: THE CHALLENGE OF TRANSLATION1

ABSTRACT: Global climate change is examined from the perspective of its relevancy and urgency as a public policy issue. Interpreting from literature specific to investigations into public awareness and concern, climate change is seen as a legitimate though less than urgent issue. The literature reveals that the general public holds surprising misconceptions about the processes contributing to climate change, including failure to grasp the fundamental connection to CO₂. General ambivalence is also suggested from the results of two surveys conducted by The Groundwater Foundation. They first asked participants in a recent Groundwater Guardian Conference to rate levels of discussion and concern for water resources implications in the participants' communities. A second survey polled national water resource organizations about the extent climate change has been a focus of their educational, investigative, or advocacy efforts. The paper concludes by describing basic barriers to stimulating public response to climate change, which education about the issue should address, and by offering a model to educate and involve citizens based on the Groundwater Guardian program developed by the The Groundwater Foundation.     

Bottom-up approach for downscaling CO2 emissions in Taiwan: robustness analysis and policy implications

The roles and responsibilities of cities in CO₂ mitigation have drawn increasing attention in recent years. To facilitate optimal design of effective mitigation policies, it is important for city authorities to understand the magnitudes and sources of their CO₂ emissions, and their relative shares of emissions at a higher spatial level. Although several studies estimate CO₂ emissions at the city level, the robustness of these estimates and their linkage to emissions at a higher level remains unclear. This kind of localized information on emissions is important for coordination of climate policies at different spatial scales. The study aims to fill a gap in understanding by building a systematic bottom-up approach for estimating urban CO₂ emissions and offering a consistency check with IPCC top–down estimates. Using Taiwan as a case study, we display the geographic distribution of CO₂ emissions. The significance and implications of the downscaling CO₂ emissions are indicated accordingly.     

The impact of electric passenger transport technology under an economy-wide climate policy in the United States: Carbon dioxide emissions,coal use,and carbon dioxide capture and storage

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have the potential to be an economic means of reducing direct (or tailpipe) carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the transportation sector. However, without a climate policy that places a limit on CO₂ emissions from the electric generation sector, the net impact of widespread deployment of PHEVs on overall U.S. CO₂ emissions is not as clear. A comprehensive analysis must consider jointly the transportation and electricity sectors, along with feedbacks to the rest of the energy system. In this paper, we use the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's MiniCAM model to perform an integrated economic analysis of the penetration of PHEVs and the resulting impact on total U.S. CO₂ emissions. In MiniCAM, the deployment of PHEVs (or any technology) is determined based on its relative economics compared to all other methods of providing fuels and energy carriers to serve passenger transportation demands. Under the assumptions used in this analysis where PHEVs obtain 50–60% of the market for passenger automobiles and light-duty trucks, the ability to deploy PHEVs under the two climate policies modelled here results in over 400 million tons (MT) CO₂ per year of additional cost-effective emissions reductions from the U.S. economy by 2050. In addition to investments in nuclear and renewables, one of the key technology options for mitigating emissions in the electric sector is CO₂ capture and storage (CCS). The additional demand for geologic CO₂ storage created by the introduction of the PHEVs is relatively modest: approximately equal to the cumulative geologic CO₂ storage demanded by two to three large 1000 megawatt (MW) coal-fired power plants using CCS over a 50-year period. The introduction of PHEVs into the U.S. transportation sector, coupled with climate policies such as those examined here, could also reduce U.S. demand for oil by 20–30% by 2050 compared to today's levels.     

Impact of Human Activities on Carbon Dioxide (CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>) Emissions: A Statistical Analysis

Summary The balance of evidence suggests a perceptible human influence on global ecosystems. Human activities are affecting the global ecosystem, some directly and some indirectly. If researchers could clarify the extent to which specific human activities affect global ecosystems, they would be in a much better position to suggest strategies for mitigating against the worst disturbances. Sophisticated statistical analysis can help in interpreting the influence of specific human activities on global ecosystems more carefully. This study aims at identifying significant or influential human activities (i.e. factors) on CO₂ emissions using statistical analyses. The study was conducted for two cases: (i) developed countries and (ii) developing countries. In developed countries, this study identified three influential human activities for CO₂ emissions: (i) combustion of fossil fuels, (ii) population pressure on natural and terrestrial ecosystems, and (iii) land use change. In developing countries, the significant human activities causing an upsurge of CO₂ emissions are: (i) combustion of fossil fuels, (ii) terrestrial ecosystem strength and (iii) land use change. Among these factors, combustion of fossil fuels is the most influential human activity for CO₂ emissions both in developed and developing countries. Regression analysis based on the factor scores indicated that combustion of fossil fuels has significant positive influence on CO₂ emissions in both developed and developing countries. Terrestrial ecosystem strength has a significant negative influence on CO₂ emissions. Land use change and CO₂ emissions are positively related, although regression analysis showed that the influence of land use change on CO₂ emissions was still insignificant. It is anticipated, from the findings of this study, that CO₂ emissions can be reduced by reducing fossil-fuel consumption and switching to alternative energy sources, preserving exiting forests, planting trees on abandoned and degraded forest lands, or by planting trees by social/agroforestry on agricultural lands.     

The gloomy greenhouse: Should the world phase out fossil fuels?

In 1988 the Toronto World Conference on the Changing Atmosphere called for a reduction of CO₂ emissions of the industrialized countries by approximately 20% by the year 2005 as compared with 1988. A stabilization of CO₂ concentrations would require an eventual emissions reduction of more than 50% of present levels. Model runs were performed with the Dutch Integrated Model for the Assessment of the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) to put these figures into perspective. It was found that the suggested emissions reduction levels could indeed be adequate to prevent global temperature change from moving beyond past climate experience. However, this would only be the case when these reduced levels of emissions were achieved at a global scale and maximum emission control for the other greenhouse gases was implemented. A delayed response analysis shows that the policies of the coming decades are crucial for the eventual control of the greenhouse effect.     

Assessing the impact of CO2 emission control scenarios in Finland on radiative forcing and greenhouse effect

Carbon dioxide emission reduction scenarios for Finland are compared with respect to the radiative forcing they cause (heating power due to the absorption of infrared radiation in the atmosphere). Calculations are made with the REFUGE system model using three carbon cycle models to obtain an uncertainity band for the development of the atmospheric concentration. The future emissions from the use of fossil fuels in Finland are described with three scenarios. In the reference scenario (business-as-usual), the emissions and the radiative forcing they cause would grow continuously. In the scenario of moderate emission reduction, the emissions would decrease annually by 1% from the first half of the next century. The radiative forcing would hardly decrease during the next century, however. In the scenario of strict emission reductions, the emissions are assumed to decrease annually by 3%, but the forcing would not decrease until approximately from the middle of the next century depending on the model used. Still, in the year 2100 the forcing would be considerably higher than the forcing in 1990. Due to the slow removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere by the oceans, it is difficult to reach a decreasing radiative forcing only by limiting fossil CO₂ emissions. The CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels in Finland contribute to the global emissions presently by about 0.2%. The relative contribution of Finnish CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels to the global forcing due to CO₂ emissions is presently somewhat less than 0.2% due to relatively smaller emissions in the past. The impact of the nonlinearity of both CO₂ removal from the atmosphere and of CO₂ absorption of infrared radiation on the results is discussed.     

The environmental life cycle assessment of agricultural sector in Thailand: EIO‐LCA approach

Agriculture is one of the major sectors in Thailand, with more than half of the population employed in agriculture‐related occupations. This study evaluated energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the Thai agricultural sector by applying the economic input–output life cycle assessment (EIO‐LCA) approach. The model evaluates the entire agricultural sector supply chain. Based on one million Thai baht (approximately $27,800 U.S. dollars) final demand of the rice paddy sector, the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the electricity sector are responsible for 27% (1,246 kilograms [kg] CO₂) of the total CO₂ emissions, whereas the emissions from paddy activities associated with the fertilizers and pesticides sector account for 16% (760 kg CO₂) and 11% (513 kg CO₂), respectively. The top three largest GHG emissions from the total agricultural sector supply chain are associated with the oil palm, the coffee and tea, and the fruit sectors. The government should promote and encourage sustainable agriculture by reducing the use of fertilizers and pesticides and by utilizing energy‐saving technologies.     

Global energy and emissions scenarios for effective climate change mitigation—Deterministic and stochastic scenarios with the TIAM model

The achievement possibilities of the EU 2 °C climate target have been assessed with the ETSAP TIAM global energy systems model. Cost-effective global and regional mitigation scenarios of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and F-gases were calculated with alternative assumptions on emissions trading. In the mitigation scenarios, an 85% reduction in CO₂ emissions is needed from the baseline, and very significant changes in the energy system towards emission-free sources take place during this century. The largest new technology groups are carbon-capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, wind power, advanced bioenergy technologies and energy efficiency measures. CCS technologies contributed a 5.5-Pg CO₂ annual emission reduction by 2050 and 12 Pg CO₂ reduction by 2100. Also large-scale forestation measures were found cost-efficient. Forestation measures reached their maximum impact of 7.7 Pg CO₂ annual emission reduction in 2080. The effects of uncertainties in the climate sensitivity have been analysed with stochastic scenarios.     

Short-Term Opportunities for Decreasing CO2 Emissions from the Steel Industry

There is a strong political will to decrease CO₂ emissions. Although the steel industry only accounts for some 5% of worldwide CO₂ emissions (which totalled 1,200 million tonnes per annum in the late 1990s), it will be strongly affected by this. The EU, for example, is putting up strong economic incentives for reductions. This is taking place at a time when demand for steel products is greater than ever. To radically change existing processes and production routes to decrease the CO₂ emissions would be extremely expensive, even if it were possible. Nevertheless, many of the solutions which have been discussed seem to go in this direction. The other alternative discussed seems to be the creation of process solutions and alterations that lead to a focusing of CO₂ streams, i.e., much higher CO₂ concentrations in flue gases than today, for entrapment of the CO₂ so that it is not discharged into the atmosphere. These solutions are feasible, but expensive.

However, there exists today a number of solutions and technologies which, if fully implemented, could substantially decrease CO₂ emissions without seriously altering current methods of operation; they are short-term viable solutions. The present paper reviews and discusses such technologies, throughout the steel production paths. If these solutions are fully implemented, the combined impact on CO₂ emissions from the steel industry worldwide is estimated to be a reduction of 100–150 million tonnes of CO₂ per annum, i.e., current emissions can be reduced by some 8–10% within a relatively short time span.     

Use of experience curves to estimate the future cost of power plants with CO2 capture

Given the dominance of power plant emissions of greenhouse gases, and the growing worldwide interest in CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) as a potential climate change mitigation option, the expected future cost of power plants with CO₂ capture is of significant interest. Reductions in the cost of technologies as a result of learning-by-doing, R&D investments and other factors have been observed over many decades. This study uses historical experience curves as the basis for estimating future cost trends for four types of electric power plants equipped with CO₂ capture systems: pulverized coal (PC) and natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) plants with post-combustion CO₂ capture; coal-based integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plants with pre-combustion capture; and coal-fired oxyfuel combustion for new PC plants. We first assess the rates of cost reductions achieved by other energy and environmental process technologies in the past. Then, by analogy with leading capture plant designs, we estimate future cost reductions that might be achieved by power plants employing CO₂ capture. Effects of uncertainties in key parameters on projected cost reductions also are evaluated via sensitivity analysis.     

What Climate Policy Can a Utilitarian Justify?

This essay sketches out what a utilitarian should support when considering global warming along with what measures can be recommended to political leaders for utilitarian reasons. If we estimate the utility of the great advantages that any ambitious climate policy might create in the name of poverty reduction in the present, I will show how a decision can be made in favor of a vigorous climate policy based on such estimates. My argument is independent of the truth of the claims of climate sceptics. Until now, the debate has neglected the double effects of a vigorous climate policy that not only avoids risks of damages but also creates utility. In conclusion, three strategies of a climate policy legitimized by utilitarianism will be introduced: (1) Utilitarianism favors global emissions trading in comparison with a global CO₂ tax. (2) Utilitarianism calls for this trade to be introduced while, at the same time, investments in renewable energies should be increased. (3) Furthermore, utilitarianism favors a policy that aims to slow down the rate of population growth.     

Petrochemicals from oil,natural gas,coal and biomass: Production costs in 2030–2050

Methane, coal and biomass are being considered as alternatives to crude oil for the production of basic petrochemicals, such as light olefins. This paper is a study on the production costs of 24 process routes utilizing these primary energy sources. A wide range of projected energy prices in 2030–2050 found in the open literature is used. The basis for comparison is the production cost per t of high value chemicals (HVCs or light olefin-value equivalent). A Monte Carlo method was used to estimate the ranking of production costs of all 24 routes with 10,000 trials of varying energy prices and CO₂ emissions costs (assumed to be within $0–100/t CO₂; the total CO₂ emissions, or cradle-to-grave CO₂ emissions, were considered). High energy prices in the first three quarter of 2008 were tested separately. The main findings are:

• •Production costs: while the production costs of crude oil- and natural gas-based routes are within $500–900/t HVCs, those of coal- and biomass-based routes are mostly within $400–800/t HVCs. Production costs of coal- and biomass-based routes are in general quite similar while in some cases the difference is significant. Among the top seven most expensive routes, six are oil- and gas-based routes. Among the top seven least expensive routes, six are coal and biomass routes.
• •CO₂ emissions costs: the effect of CO₂ emissions costs was found to be strong on the coal-based routes and also quite significant on the biomass-based routes. However, the effect on oil- and gas-based routes is found to be small or relatively moderate.
• •Energy prices in 2008: most of the coal-based routes and biomass-based routes (particularly sugar cane) still have much lower production costs than the oil- and gas-based routes (even if international freight costs are included).

To ensure the reduction of CO₂ emissions in the long-term, we suggest that policies for the petrochemicals industry focus on stimulating the use of biomass as well as carbon capture and storage features for coal-based routes.     

Exergoeconomic and exergoenvironmental analyses of a combined cycle power plant with chemical looping technology

CO₂ capture and storage from energy conversion systems is one option for reducing power plant CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere and for limiting the impact of fossil-fuel use on climate change. Among existing technologies, chemical looping combustion (CLC), an oxy-fuel approach, appears to be one of the most promising techniques, providing straightforward CO₂ capture with low energy requirements.This paper provides an evaluation of CLC technology from an economic and environmental perspective by comparing it with to a reference plant, a combined cycle power plant that includes no CO₂ capture. Two exergy-based methods, the exergoeconomic and the exergoenvironmental analyses, are used to determine the economic and environmental impacts, respectively. The applied methods facilitate the iterative optimization of energy conversion systems and lead towards the improvement of the effectiveness of the overall plant while decreasing the cost and the environmental impact of the generated product. For the plant with CLC, a high increase in the cost of electricity is observed, while at the same time the environmental impact decreases.     

Lithium availability in the EU27 for battery-driven vehicles: The impact of recycling and substitution on the confrontation between supply and demand until2050

The adverse impacts of climate change are widely recognized as well as the importance of the mitigation of carbon dioxide (CO₂). Battery driven vehicles are expected to have a bright future, since GHG emissions can be reduced. Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries appear to be the most promising, due to their high energy density. Recently, the discussion concerning adequate lithium carbonate (Li₂CO₃) resources is resolved. The current challenge is the needed increase in flow rate of Li₂CO₃ into society to foresee in forecasted demand. This research determines ten factors which influence the availability of Li-ion batteries for the EU27 in the coming decades. They are used in a system dynamics analysis. The results of this research show that undersupply can be expected in the EU27 until 2045 somewhere between 0.5 Mt and 2.8 Mt. Substitution of Li₂CO₃ in other end-use markets and recycling can relieve the strain on Li₂CO₃ supply to some extent. In 2050, 20% of the vehicle fleet in the EU27 can be battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The lack of resources in the EU27 and the geographical distribution of lithium in politically sensitive areas suggest that the shares of lithium available for the EU27 will be less than assumed in this research. The increase in flow rate shows to be the bottle-neck for a transition to (partly) battery driven vehicles in the EU27, at least when Li-ion batteries are used. Focusing on large-scale application of BEVs with Li-ion batteries in order to substantially mitigate CO₂ emissions in transport is a futile campaign.     

The potential for increased atmospheric CO2 emissions and accelerated consumption of deep geologic CO2 storage resources resulting from the large-scale deployment of a CCS-enabled unconventional fossil fuels industry in the U.S.

Desires to enhance the energy security of the United States have spurred renewed interest in the development of abundant domestic heavy hydrocarbon resources including oil shale and coal to produce unconventional liquid fuels to supplement conventional oil supplies. However, the production processes for these unconventional fossil fuels create large quantities of carbon dioxide (CO₂) and this remains one of the key arguments against such development. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies could reduce these emissions and preliminary analysis of regional CO₂ storage capacity in locations where such facilities might be sited within the U.S. indicates that there appears to be sufficient storage capacity, primarily in deep saline formations, to accommodate the CO₂ from these industries. Nevertheless, even assuming wide-scale availability of cost-effective CO₂ capture and geologic storage resources, the emergence of a domestic U.S. oil shale or coal-to-liquids (CTL) industry would be responsible for significant increases in CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere. The authors present modeling results of two future hypothetical climate policy scenarios that indicate that the oil shale production facilities required to produce 3 MMB/d from the Eocene Green River Formation of the western U.S. using an in situ retorting process would result in net emissions to the atmosphere of between 3000 and 7000 MtCO₂, in addition to storing potentially 900–5000 MtCO₂ in regional deep geologic formations via CCS in the period up to 2050. A similarly sized, but geographically more dispersed domestic CTL industry could result in 4000–5000 MtCO₂ emitted to the atmosphere in addition to potentially 21,000–22,000 MtCO₂ stored in regional deep geologic formations over the same period. While this analysis shows that there is likely adequate CO₂ storage capacity in the regions where these technologies are likely to deploy, the reliance by these industries on large-scale CCS could result in an accelerated rate of utilization of the nation's CO₂ storage resource, leaving less high-quality storage capacity for other carbon-producing industries including electric power generation.