浙江省萧山市山一村农村生态良性循环与系统管理研究 Ⅱ.山一村产业结构调整和结构负熵计算

本文在分析山一村农村产业结构的不同层次、调查该村产业结构的历年演变趋势、考虑该村资源的整体优势和部门潜力的基础上,参考萧山市社会经济发展综合规划,提出了山一村产业结构调整思路,列述了调整方案要点,并通过结构调整前后系统总负熵的计算,系统趋向有序。根据耗散结构理论,从系统总负熵值的降低,说明系统的有序度提高22％,从而验证了调整方案的合理性。     

高职实践教学“层次-模块”管理模式的整体构建

通过对高职实践教学管理内容的剖析,分析了构建层次模块管理模式的可行性和必要性,并依次分层次、分模块构建了实践教学的管理模式,最后科学地完成了层次一模块管理模式的整体构建．图3,参5．     

生态农场综合评价指标体系构建与实证分析

为了客观公正地评价生态农场的发展状况,运用层次分析法,结合生态农场实际情况,从本地资源、经济效益、社会效益和生态环境效益角度出发,提出了生态农场评价指标体系构建原则和方法,并建立生态农场综合水平评价定性与定量相结合的指标体系,进而运用量化的评价指标体系和层次分析评价法,对湖南省辰溪县橘海生态农场进行了综合评价实证.     

山东省可持续发展能力的实证分析

文章从区域可持续发展系统的角度构建了区域可持续发展能力的指标体系,运用层次分析法、聚类分析法对山东17地市的可持续发展能力进行了综合评价。结果显示,山东各城市可持续发展能力两极差距大,空间差异明显,总体上呈现东高西低的态势。对山东可持续发展的能力做出了分析,并提出了相应建议。     

城市环境质量多级模糊综合评价

文章将模糊聚类与层次分析相结合,提出了城市环境质量多级模糊综合评价法,并将该方法应用于宣州市环境质量综合评价,结果表明,该方法克服了综合指数法受人为因素影响大的缺点,较好地反映了环境质量分级界限的模糊性,并且较好地解决了权值分配问题,使评价结论更合理,可靠,是一种有价值的城市环境质量综合评价方法。     

TVET思想理念与高等职业教育教学体系构建

该文从TVET角度出发,提出了职业创新能力概念,借鉴发达国家高等职业教育教学体系构建情况,提出了我国高等职业教育教学体系构建的若干原则:普通高中和职业高中适当修完大学一些公共基础课,必须拓宽专业设置面,须慎重考虑基础课、专业基础课与专业课三者之间的学时比例,须拓宽知识教育面、增加选修课程,教学计划实行动态调整,须拓宽办学层次,须加强动手能力培养、增加投入.     

河南太行山猕猴国家级自然保护区功能区调整与生态影响

针对拟建济晋高速公路工程对太行山猕猴国家级自然保护区的负面生态影响,提出了保护区功能区调整方案,进而分析了功能区调整对保护区的正面生态影响,并就生态保护与补偿措施问题提出了建议与对策。     

中国消耗臭氧层物质非法进出口贸易状况和对策分析

分析了我国在保护臭氧层工作中在进出口贸易方面存在的问题,重点分析了消耗臭氧层物质（ODS）非法贸易的形式,尤其是ODS作为制冷剂的非法贸易形式,论述了ODS非法贸易工作的防范重点。同时,分析了非法贸易产生的主要原因,阐述了我国控制ODS非法贸易的措施和成效,以及非法贸易对我国履行环境国际公约工作的危害。最后,就强化ODS进出口管理、减少杜绝ODS非法贸易提出工具体的对策建议：调整氟化工行业产品的出口退税率,加强打击“三非”能力和ODS进出口管理机构建设。     

基于DIAHP的旅游环境容量分析及相关对策研究

基于普通层次分析法的基本原理,融入"权变"思想,针对旅游环境容量的动态性,提出了1种动态改进层次分析法(DIAHP),分析旅游环境容量随时间变化的动态波动特征.最后,通过对南戴河国际娱乐中心的实证研究,验证了其可行性和有效性.     

成都市环境经营的实证研究

城市环境经营是城市经营重要组成部分,文章从城市环境、城市环境经营的内涵出发,对成都市环境经营的战略层次、目标层次、策略层次和操作层次进行了系统的实证研究,并就目前存在问题,提出了相关建议。     

滨海新区规划对区域生态网络结构的影响分析

以滨海新区2008年卫星影像、《滨海新区城市总体规划（2005-2020）》和《滨海新区城市空间发展战略研究（2005-2050）》为基础,在GIS技术下运用景观格局分析、网络结构分析及斑块间的相互作用力分析法研究了滨海新区规划对区域生态网络结构的影响。结果表明：滨海新区2008年生态网络景观破碎化严重且连通性差;《总体规划》侧重于斑块间的廊道连接,但大尺度斑块比例小;《战略研究》侧重于大尺度斑块的构建,但连通性较差;根据景观生态学原理,提出了滨海新区的生态网络结构改进建议。     

3S与在线监测技术在环境模型研究中的应用

结合环境信息系统的研究现状和研究实例，首先分析了3S和在线监测技术与环境模型研究结合的必要性，并分析指出了3S、在线监测技术在环境模型研究中潜在的应用范围，然后剖析了3S技术与环境模型研究结合的三阶水平，最后介绍了3S在环境规划模型研究中的理想结合框架。     

资兴市毛竹低产林改造技术及效益分析

资兴市毛竹资源丰富,经营历史悠久,但培育技术相对滞后.在对全市毛竹低产林调查的基础上,分析了引起低产的原因,提出了改造技术措施.通过改造后的第7年,新竹每亩平均增加102株,新竹产量是对照的1.7-3.6倍,胸径增粗0.6 cm以上;在立地条件好的纯毛竹林,采用综合技术集约经营,出笋数是粗放经营的50倍.林分结构基本趋向于合理.这对加快毛竹发展,促进农村经济建设意义重大.表2,参9.     

建三江城区用地评价与绿地生态系统分析

根据现状基础数据,以及城市发展对土地利用的需要,对建三江城区绿地和土地利用状进行了分析与评价。通过对现有林地、水系生态要素的有机组织和改造,确定了建三江城区绿地生态系统用地规划目标和绿地生态系统布局,＂一廊、两环、三楔、多点、网络＂,为北方寒地城市建三江城区的生态宜居城市建设提出了建议。     

Scenario-based assessment and multi-objective optimization of urban development plan with carrying capacity of water system

• Impact of urban development on water system is assessed with carrying capacity. • Impacts on both water resource quantity and environmental quality are involved. • Multi-objective optimization revealing system trade-off facilitate the regulation. • Efficiency, scale and structure of urban development are regulated in two stages. • A roadmap approaching more sustainable development is provided for the case city. Environmental impact assessments and subsequent regulation measures of urban development plans are critical to human progress toward sustainability, since these plans set the scale and structure targets of future socioeconomic development. A three-step methodology for assessing and optimizing an urban development plan focusing on its impacts on the water system was developed. The methodology first predicted the pressure on the water system caused by implementation of the plan under distinct scenarios, then compared the pressure with the carrying capacity threshold to verify the system status; finally, a multi-objective optimization method was used to propose regulation solutions. The methodology enabled evaluation of the water system carrying state, taking socioeconomic development uncertainties into account, and multiple sets of improvement measures under different decisionmaker preferences were generated. The methodology was applied in the case of Zhoushan city in South-east China. The assessment results showed that overloading problems occurred in 11 out of the 13 zones in Zhoushan, with the potential pressure varying from 1.1 to 18.3 times the carrying capacity. As a basic regulation measure, an environmental efficiency upgrade could relieve the overloading in 4 zones and reduce 9%‒63% of the pressure. The optimization of industrial development showed that the pressure could be controlled under the carrying capacity threshold if the planned scale was reduced by 24% and the industrial structure was transformed. Various regulation schemes including a more suitable scale and structure with necessary efficiency standards are provided for decisionmakers that can help the case city approach a more sustainable development pattern.     

城市生态绿地系统初论：以南京市为例

本文论述了现代城市绿地的沿革和主要特征,认为健全的城市生态绿地系统才是城市减缓环境压力的保证系统.分析了城市生态绿地系统应具备的系统成分、功能结构及空间布局;提出量、质兼备的系统生态设计准则.同时,规划具有南京市特色的生态防护圈,完善该市的城市生态绿地系统.     

我国城市轨道交通规划环境影响评价指标体系初探

概述了我国城市轨道交通规划与建设及其规划环评工作现状。在对10个城市轨道交通规划环评指标体系分析的基础上,总结了评价指标体系在结构层次和内容方面存在的问题,并提出了解决问题的关键点。建立了基于交通环境承载力的城市轨道交通规划环评指标体系,并展望了其在城市轨道交通规划环评中的应用前景。     

Building robust conservation plans

Systematic conservation planning optimizes trade‐offs between biodiversity conservation and human activities by accounting for socioeconomic costs while aiming to achieve prescribed conservation objectives. However, the most cost‐efficient conservation plan can be very dissimilar to any other plan achieving the set of conservation objectives. This is problematic under conditions of implementation uncertainty (e.g., if all or part of the plan becomes unattainable). We determined through simulations of parallel implementation of conservation plans and habitat loss the conditions under which optimal plans have limited chances of implementation and where implementation attempts would fail to meet objectives. We then devised a new, flexible method for identifying conservation priorities and scheduling conservation actions. This method entails generating a number of alternative plans, calculating the similarity in site composition among all plans, and selecting the plan with the highest density of neighboring plans in similarity space. We compared our method with the classic method that maximizes cost efficiency with synthetic and real data sets. When implementation was uncertain—a common reality—our method provided higher likelihood of achieving conservation targets. We found that χ, a measure of the shortfall in objectives achieved by a conservation plan if the plan could not be implemented entirely, was the main factor determining the relative performance of a flexibility enhanced approach to conservation prioritization. Our findings should help planning authorities prioritize conservation efforts in the face of uncertainty about future condition and availability of sites.     

基于目标规划模型的大连市水资源承载力分析

结合“大大连”建设的规划和“十五”及2010年远景规划,选取了人口、国内生产总值、公共绿地面积三个决策变量建立目标规划模型,采取3种方案对大连市水资源承载力进行预测,通过对预测结果的分析并结合水资源承载力的特点提出增强水资源承载力的方案:以可持续发展的观点来设计城市发展规划;调整和改造产业结构;改变城市绿化结构;兴修水利,发展节水技术达到水资源可持续利用。     

Potential Effects of a Forest Management Plan on Bachman's Sparrows (Aimophila aestivalis): Linking a Spatially Explicit Model with GIS

By combining a spatially explicit, individual-based population simulation model with a geographic information system, we have simulated the potential effects of a U.S. Forest Service management plan on the population dynamics of Bachman's Sparrow ( Aimophila aestivalis ) at the Savannah River Site, a U.S. Department of Energy facility in South Carolina. Although the Forest Service's management plan explicitly sets management goals for many species, most of the prescribed management strategy deals with the endangered Red-cockaded Woodpecker ( Picoides borealis ) because of legal requirements. We explored how a species (the sparrow) that is not the target of specific management strategies but that shares some habitat requirements with the woodpecker, would fare under the management plan. We found that the major components of the proposed management plan may allow the sparrow population to reach and exceed the minimum management goal set for this species, but only after a substantial initial decline in sparrow numbers and a prolonged transition period. In the model, the sparrow population dynamics were most sensitive to demographic variables such as adult and juvenile survivorship and to landscape variables such as the suitability of young clearcuts and mature pine stands. Using various assumptions about habitat suitability, we estimated that the 50-year probability of population extinction is at least 5% or may be much higher if juvenile survivorship is low. We believe, however, that modest changes in the management plan might greatly increase the sparrow population and presumably decrease the probability of extinction. Our results suggest that management plans focusing on one or a few endangered species may potentially threaten other species of management concern. Spatially explicit population models are a useful tool in designing modifications of management plans that can reduce the impact on nontarget species of management concern.