Adaptation to climate change in Ethiopia and South Africa: options and constraints

Climate change is expected to adversely affect agricultural production in Africa. Because agricultural production remains the main source of income for most rural communities in the region, adaptation of the agricultural sector is imperative to protect the livelihoods of the poor and to ensure food security. A better understanding of farmers’ perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and the decision-making process is important to inform policies aimed at promoting successful adaptation strategies for the agricultural sector. Using data from a survey of 1800 farm households in South Africa and Ethiopia, this study presents the adaptation strategies used by farmers in both countries and analyzes the factors influencing the decision to adapt. We find that the most common adaptation strategies include: use of different crops or crop varieties, planting trees, soil conservation, changing planting dates, and irrigation. However, despite having perceived changes in temperature and rainfall, a large percentage of farmers did not make any adjustments to their farming practices. The main barriers to adaptation cited by farmers were lack of access to credit in South Africa and lack of access to land, information, and credit in Ethiopia. A probit model is used to examine the factors influencing farmers’ decision to adapt to perceived climate changes. Factors influencing farmers’ decision to adapt include wealth, and access to extension, credit, and climate information in Ethiopia; and wealth, government farm support, and access to fertile land and credit in South Africa. Using a pooled dataset, an analysis of the factors affecting the decision to adapt to perceived climate change across both countries reveals that farmers were more likely to adapt if they had access to extension, credit, and land. Food aid, extension services, and information on climate change were found to facilitate adaptation among the poorest farmers. We conclude that policy-makers must create an enabling environment to support adaptation by increasing access to information, credit and markets, and make a particular effort to reach small-scale subsistence farmers, with limited resources to confront climate change.     

Climate change: linking adaptation and mitigation through agroforestry

Agriculture is the human enterprise that is most vulnerable to climate change. Tropical agriculture, particularly subsistence agriculture is particularly vulnerable, as smallholder farmers do not have adequate resources to adapt to climate change. While agroforestry may play a significant role in mitigating the atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases (GHG), it also has a role to play in helping smallholder farmers adapt to climate change. In this paper, we examine data on the mitigation potential of agroforestry in the humid and sub-humid tropics. We then present the scientific evidence that leads to the expectation that agroforestry also has an important role in climate change adaptation, particularly for small holder farmers. We conclude with priority research questions that need to be answered concerning the role of agroforestry in both mitigation and adaptation to climate change.     

Agricultural adaptation to climate change: insights from a farming community in Sri Lanka

The vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change and variability is increasingly rising. As agriculture is the only source of income for most of them, agricultural adaptation with respect to climate change is vital for their sustenance and to ensure food security. In order to develop appropriate strategies and institutional responses, it is necessary to have a clear understanding of the farmers’ perception of climate change, actual adaptations at farm-level and what factors drive and constrain their decision to adapt. Thus, this study investigates the farm-level adaptation to climate change based on the case of a farming community in Sri Lanka. The findings revealed that farmers’ perceived the ongoing climate change based on their experiences. Majority of them adopted measures to address climate change and variability. These adaptation measures can be categorised into five groups, such as crop management, land management, irrigation management, income diversification, and rituals. The results showed that management of non-climatic factors was an important strategy to enhance farmers’ adaptation, particularly in a resource-constrained smallholder farming context. The results of regression analysis indicated that human cognition was an important determinant of climate change adaptation. Social networks were also found to significantly influence adaptation. The study also revealed that social barriers, such as cognitive and normative factors, are equally important as other economic barriers to adaptation. While formulating and implementing the adaptation strategies, this study underscored the importance of understanding socio-economic, cognitive and normative aspects of the local communities.     

Climate change adaptation,mitigation and livelihood benefits in coffee production: where are the synergies?

There are worldwide approximately 4.3 million coffee (Coffea arabica) producing smallholders generating a large share of tropical developing countries’ gross domestic product, notably in Central America. Their livelihoods and coffee production are facing major challenges due to projected climate change, requiring adaptation decisions that may range from changes in management practices to changes in crops or migration. Since management practices such as shade use and reforestation influence both climate vulnerability and carbon stocks in coffee, there may be synergies between climate change adaptation and mitigation that could make it advantageous to jointly pursue both objectives. In some cases, carbon accounting for mitigation actions might even be used to incentivize and subsidize adaptation actions. To assess potential synergies between climate change mitigation and adaptation in smallholder coffee production systems, we quantified (i) the potential of changes in coffee production and processing practices as well as other livelihood activities to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions, (ii) coffee farmers’ climate change vulnerability and need for adaptation, including the possibility of carbon markets subsidizing adaptation. We worked with smallholder organic coffee farmers in Northern Nicaragua, using workshops, interviews, farm visits and the Cool Farm Tool software to calculate greenhouse gas balances of coffee farms. From the 12 activities found to be relevant for adaptation, two showed strong and five showed modest synergies with mitigation. Afforestation of degraded areas with coffee agroforestry systems and boundary tree plantings resulted in the highest synergies between adaptation and mitigation. Financing possibilities for joint adaptation-mitigation activities could arise through carbon offsetting, carbon insetting, and carbon footprint reductions. Non-monetary benefits such as technical assistance and capacity building could be effective in promoting such synergies at low transaction costs.     

Livelihoods, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Morogoro, Tanzania

This article examines farmers’ livelihood responses and vulnerability to climate variability and other stressors in Morogoro, Tanzania, to understand their implications for adaptation to climate change by agricultural households in developing world more generally. In Morogoro, agricultural households have extended cultivation, intensified agriculture, diversified livelihoods and migrated to gain access to land, markets and employment as a response to climatic and other stressors. Some of these responses have depleted and degraded natural resources such as forest, soil and water resources, which will complicate their living with climate change in the future. This will be particularly problematic to vulnerable groups such as women, children and pastoralists who have limited access to employment, markets and public services. In this light, fair adaptation to climate change by agricultural households in Morogoro and elsewhere in developing countries requires several complementary responses. Adaptation efforts should involve effective governance of natural resources because they function as safety nets to vulnerable groups. In addition, strengthening of national markets by infrastructure investments and institutional reforms is needed to give incentives to intensification and diversification in agriculture. Market participation also demands enhancement of human capital by public programs on health, education and wellbeing.     

Farm management decision and response to climate variability and change in Côte d’Ivoire

This paper investigates threats to farm management in the northern and central region of Côte d’Ivoire, with a particular focus on climate-related threats. To this end, farmers’ perception and adaptation strategies for climate change have been analyzed. The data were collected from 205 respondents by means of the Focus Groups method, and they were evaluated using a framework analysis. The main reported threats related to the implementation of farming activities are the high cost of inputs and the lack of technical support, which are followed by diseases, insects, and climate variations (scarcity of rains, strong winds, and high temperature). We find that most farmers have a strong perception of changes in climatic conditions. Their perceived impacts on the local environment through evidences like the disappearance of certain farming practices, occurrence of new insects, and the disruption of key time reference periods. Farmers mainly attempt to adapt by adjusting their agricultural calendar, adopting new short-season varieties, and using mixed cropping. We find that the most influential factors for farmers’ adaptation behavior is lack of contact with extension services and the scarcity of rainfall. Our suggestions for future agricultural policies for better adaptation to climate change are to take into account farmers’ perception, to provide suitable climate forecast, and to improve local technical support.     

Economic impacts of climatic variability and subsidies on European agriculture and observed adaptation strategies

In order to assess agricultural adaptation to climate impacts, new methodologies are needed. The translog distance function allows assessing interactions between different factors, and hence the influence of management on climate impacts. The Farm Accountancy Data Network provides extensive data on farm characteristics of farms throughout the EU15 (i.e. the 15 member states of the European Union before the extension in 2004). These data on farm inputs and outputs from 1990−2003 are coupled with climate data. As climate change is not the only change affecting European agriculture, we also include effects of subsidies and other changes on inputs and outputs of farms throughout Europe. We distinguish several regions and empirically assess (1) climate impacts on farm inputs and outputs in different regions and (2) interactions between inputs and other factors that contribute to the adaptation to these impacts. Changes in production can partly be related to climatic variability and change, but also subsidies and other developments (e.g. technology, markets) are important. Results show that impacts differ per region, and that ‘actual impacts’ cannot be explicitly separated into ‘potential impacts’ and ‘adaptive capacity’ as often proposed for vulnerability assessment. Farmers adapt their practices to prevailing conditions and continuously adapt to changing conditions. Therefore, ‘potential impacts’ will not be observed in practice, leaving it as a mainly theoretical concept. Factors that contribute to the adaptation also differ per region. In some regions more fertilizers or more irrigation can mitigate impacts, while in other regions this amplifies impacts. To project impacts of future climate change on agriculture, current farm management strategies and their influence on current production should be considered. This clearly asks for improved integration of biophysical and economic models.     

Farmers’ perceptions of climate variability and barriers to adaptation: lessons learned from an exploratory study in Vietnam

Southeast Asian countries are confronting climate variability, challenging agricultural sustainability and rural livelihoods. However, little research effort has been devoted to exploring how farmers in those countries perceive climate variability and how the perceptions link to adaptive responses. This paper deploys information from three focus group discussions with 30 male farmers; and six in-depth interviews with one female and five male agricultural officers in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Recorded 34-year meteorological data in the delta from 1978 to 2011 is also incorporated to demonstrate the actual climate variability of the region. We find that farmers are becoming increasingly conscious of local climate variability issues. However, they have limited understanding of the importance of adaptation to their livelihoods. They also have limited knowledge of where and who to contact for appropriate climate change adaptation information. No opinions about the link between global warming and local climate variability and change were observed. Casual observation via public media and personal experience dominated farmers’ sources of information. Barriers to farmers’ adaptation are not exclusively restricted to socio-economic factors and resource constraints; e.g. land tenure, technical knowledge, market, social relationship, credit, information, health care, and demographics. Maladaptation, habit, and the perception of the importance of climate variability and adaptation are found as additional constraints. Observed differences in farmers’ and agricultural officers’ perspectives regarding barriers to farmers’ adaptation suggest important policy implications.     

Motivations and barriers for Western Australian broad-acre farmers to adopt carbon farming

Carbon farming policies aim to contribute to climate change mitigation, but their success strongly depends on whether landholders actually adopt desired practices or participate in offered programs. The Australian Government’s Carbon Farming Initiative and Emissions Reduction Fund policies were designed to incentivise the adoption of carbon farming practices. Although these policies have been active since December 2011, farmer engagement has been limited, and net emissions reductions low as a result. We surveyed broad-acre farmers in the Western Australian wheatbelt to explore their drivers and barriers to adopting carbon farming practices and participating in carbon farming policy programs. Drivers of adoption included knowledge and perception of co-benefits (for yield, productivity, and the environment), knowing another adopter, and believing that changes to farm management are an appropriate method to reduce Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions. Barriers to adoption included lack of information, uncertainty and costs. The key barrier to participation was policy and political uncertainty. The determinants of adoption and participation that we identify in our study offer important insights into how to best ensure the success of Australia’s land sector-based climate change policies. We conclude that, to increase landholder engagement, the co-benefits and climate change benefits of carbon farming practices must be actively promoted, and additional information is needed about the costs associated with adoption. Information diffusion is best achieved if it actively leverages landholder social networks. Finally, our results indicate that landholder buy-in to carbon farming could be greatly enhanced by achieving more continuity in Australian climate change policies and politics.     

Agricultural bio-char production,renewable energy generation and farm carbon sequestration in Western Australia: Certainty,uncertainty and risk

Reducing the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change while increasing primary productivity requires mitigation and adaptation activities to generate profitable co-benefits to farms. The conversion of woody-wastes by pyrolysis to produce bio-char (biologically derived charcoal) is one potential option that can enhance natural rates of carbon sequestration in soils, reduce farm waste, and substitute renewable energy sources for fossil-derived fuel inputs. Bio-char has the potential to increase conventional agricultural productivity and enhance the ability of farmers to participate in carbon markets beyond traditional approach by directly applying carbon into soil. This paper provides an overview of the pyrolysis process and products and quantifies the amount of renewable energy generation and net carbon sequestration possible when using farm bio-waste to produce bio-char as a primary product. While this research provides approximate bio-char and energy production yields, costs, uses and risks, there is a need for additional research on the value of bio-char in conventional crop yields and adaptation and mitigation options.     

A role-playing game as a tool to facilitate social learning and collective action towards Climate Smart Agriculture: Lessons learned from Apuí, Brazil

Addressing the global challenges of climate change (CC), food security and poverty alleviation requires enhancing the adaptive capacity and mitigation potential of land use systems. To this end, Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) aims to identify land use practices that sustainably increase productivity, enhance climate change (CC) adaptation and contribute to CC mitigation. A transition towards CSA requires technical, but also socio-institutional changes, for improved smallholder agricultural systems. Such changes may be triggered by stakeholder participation processes that stimulate social learning and collective action. This article evaluates whether a role-playing game (RPG) is an effective participatory tool to encourage social learning and collective action among local stakeholders towards adoption of CSA strategies. We designed and implemented an RPG with three groups of farmers in Apuí (Southern Amazonas), evaluating the game’s impact on social learning by interviewing each farmer before and after the RPG. Our findings show that the RPG induced not only technical learning, but also socio-institutional learning and engagement for collective action, though outcomes varied between different RPG sessions and among farmer participants.     

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate risks in Ontario agriculture

A vulnerability approach to climate change adaptation research is employed to explore prospects of agricultural adaptation to climatic variability and change. The methodological approach focuses on the system of concern, in this case, farms in Perth County, Ontario. Twenty-five interviews and four focus groups with farmers were used to identify climate risks on farms, and to document farmers’ responses to conditions and risks associated with climate and weather. The information collected describes a complex decision-making environment, with many forces both external and internal to the farm operation influencing management decisions. Within this environment, climate and weather are consistently referred to as a significant force influencing both farm operations and management decisions. Farmers have, however, developed a wide-range of anticipatory and reactive management strategies to manage climate risks. While these have potential to address future climate-related risks and opportunities, there are limits to adaptation, and an increase in the frequency of extreme events may exceed their adaptive capacities. Farmers are also generally unaware and/or unconcerned about future climate change, which could constrain opportunities to adopt long-term climate change adaptations.     

Enhancing adaptive capacity to climate change: The case of smallholder farmers in the Brazilian semi-arid region

Climate change is one of the main challenges faced by mankind in this century. Although developing countries have little historical responsibility for climate change, they are likely to be most affected by it since they lack resources to cope with or to adapt to its effects. Studies show that the semi-arid northeast region of Brazil – where the country's poorest populations are concentrated – is one of the most vulnerable to climate change and thus likely to suffer its impacts more severely. The present paper addresses these problems by presenting a concrete initiative for strengthening adaptive capacity in the rural community of Pintadas as a first step in the development of a comprehensive methodology to help smallholder farmers in the region adapt to climate change. Based on the project results this paper highlights the integration of development, adaptive capacity and adaptation strategies. Furthermore, the necessity of vulnerability studies and concrete local experiences is highlighted in order to develop adaptation strategies that can alleviate poverty and minimize climate change impacts for the poor.     

Après Paris: Breakthrough innovation as the primary moral obligation of rich countries

While the notion of differentiated responsibility has always included an element of technological transfer, the growing disparity between the deployment of non-scalable renewable energy sources in the rich countries and the massive expansion of fossil infrastructure elsewhere has brought new urgency to issues of climate leadership. Breakthrough innovation into technologies capable of providing an abundance of clean energy now appears necessary not only to broaden energy access but also to ensure that fossil fuels are quickly displaced globally (including in those countries that have failed to take climate change seriously). Moreover, it is reasonable to expect that a climatechanged world in itself will demand abundant energy to facilitate everything from carbon dioxide removal to mass desalination for agriculture and other adaptation measures. Considering the moral and political impossibility of treating sustained poverty as the “solution” to the climate crisis, this paper suggests that rich countries have a moral obligation to invest in breakthrough innovation into technologies that are compatible with a future global economic convergence around OECD-levels.     

Assessing high-impact spots of climate change: spatial yield simulations with Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model

Drybeans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) are an important subsistence crop in Central America. Future climate change may threaten drybean production and jeopardize smallholder farmers’ food security. We estimated yield changes in drybeans due to changing climate in these countries using downscaled data from global circulation models (GCMs) in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. We generated daily weather data, which we used in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) drybean submodel. We compared different cultivars, soils, and fertilizer options in three planting seasons. We analyzed the simulated yields to spatially classify high-impact spots of climate change across the four countries. The results show a corridor of reduced yields from Lake Nicaragua to central Honduras (10–38 % decrease). Yields increased in the Guatemalan highlands, towards the Atlantic coast, and in southern Nicaragua (10–41 % increase). Some farmers will be able to adapt to climate change, but others will have to change crops, which will require external support. Research institutions will need to devise technologies that allow farmers to adapt and provide policy makers with feasible strategies to implement them.     

Challenges to achieving a successful transition to a low carbon economy in South Africa: examples from poor urban communities

South Africa faces several development challenges including those linked to climate change. Energy usage in South Africa, for example, is already constrained because of a range of development challenges (the dependence on cheap coal as a heating source; energy availability; access; affordability of alternative energy sources; and a range of health impacts, including air pollution). Notwithstanding calls for a transition to a low carbon economy, there have been few, recent assessments in South Africa of the costs associated with such a transition, particularly the social and economic costs for the poor who use energy in a variety of ways. In this paper we focus on trying to unravel some of the complex energy-use behaviour including understanding what drives consumers in resource-poor areas to choose and use persistently risky energy options. Analysis of qualitative data in two township areas, Doornkop and Kwaguqa, shows that township households, whether electrified or not, continue to burn coal. In both study areas, an estimated 80% of electrified households burn coal for space heating and cooking and also make use of multiple fuel sources for a range of activities. Although the major obstacles preventing people from discontinuing domestic coal combustion are poverty, the ready availability and social acceptability of coal together with other social customs cannot be underrated. This paper therefore highlights some of the persistent challenges associated with sustainable energy transitions in South Africa including implications for improved mitigation and adaptation for the energy sector in wider climate change efforts.     

Economic feasibility of adapting crop enterprises to future climate change: a case study of flexible scheduling and irrigation for representative farms in Flathead Valley,Montana, USA

Future climate change directly impacts crop agriculture by altering temperature and precipitation regimes, crop yields, crop enterprise net returns, and net farm income. Most previous studies assess the potential impacts of agricultural adaptation to climate change on crop yields. This study attempts to evaluate the potential impacts of crop producers’ adaptation to future climate change on crop yield, crop enterprise net returns, and net farm income in Flathead Valley, Montana, USA. Crop enterprises refer to the combinations of inputs (e.g., land, labor, and capital) and field operations used to produce a crop. Two crop enterprise adaptations are evaluated: flexible scheduling of field operations; and crop irrigation. All crop yields are simulated using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model. Net farm income is assessed for small and large representative farms and two soils in the study area. Results show that average crop yields in the future period (2006–2050) without adaptation are between 7% and 48% lower than in the historical period (1960–2005). Flexible scheduling of the operations used in crop enterprises does not appear to be an economically efficient form of crop enterprise adaptation because it does not improve crop yields and crop enterprise net returns in the future period. With irrigation, crop yields are generally higher for all crop enterprises and crop enterprise net returns increase for the canola and alfalfa enterprises but decrease for all other assessed crop enterprises relative to no adaptation. Overall, average crop enterprise net return in the future period is 45% lower with than without irrigation. Net farm income decreases for both the large and small representative farms with both flexible scheduling and irrigation. Results indicate that flexible scheduling and irrigation adaptation are unlikely to reduce the potential adverse economic impacts of climate change on crop producers in Montana’s Flathead Valley.     

Individual preferences for reducing flood risk to near zero through elevation

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of natural disasters. Adaptation investments are required in order to limit the projected increase in natural disaster risks. Adaptation measures can reduce risk partially or completely eliminate risk. The literature on behavioural economics suggests that individuals rarely undertake measures that limit risk partially, while they may place a considerable value on measures that reduce risk to zero. This is studied for a case of adaptation to climate change and its effects on flood risk in the Netherlands. In particular, we examine whether households are willing to invest in elevating newly built structures when this is framed as eliminating flood risk. The results indicate that a majority of homeowners (52%) is willing to make a substantial investment of €10,000 to elevate a new house to a level that is safe to flooding. Differences between willingness to pay (WTP) for flood insurance and WTP for risk elimination through elevation indicate that individuals place a considerable value on the latter adaptation option. This study estimates that the “safety premium” which individuals place on risk elimination is approximately between €35 and €45 per month. The existence of a safety premium has important implications for the design of climate change adaptation policies. The decision to invest in elevating homes is significantly correlated with the expected negative effects of climate change, perceptions of flood risks, individual risk attitudes, and living close to a main river.     

Fertilizer market reforms and factors influencing fertilizer use by small-scale farmers in Bénin

Bénin, like other countries in sub-Saharan Africa, has initiated programs to reform agricultural input and output markets. While the impact of the reform programs has been different for each country, it is commonly observed that impact at the farm level has been less than anticipated. A central theme of this paper is to assess the impact of fertilizer market reforms on the fertilizer market structure and fertilizer use for both food and export (cotton) crop production in Bénin. This analysis of farm-level policy impact is based on data from 899 farm households randomly selected and interviewed in all six départements of Bénin in 1998/1999. Results of the study show that there have been only insignificant changes in the fertilizer market structure. Access to fertilizers has not improved; prices for fertilizer have risen in real terms, resulting in application rates lower than that recommended by extension agents. The effects of the reform programs are vital for investment decisions and provide lessons for introducing alternative approaches for improving soil fertility or management. Since 1992, 54% of farmers find maize (Zea mays L.) production more profitable, while 38% reported that cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) production has become more profitable. As a result of the mixed effects of the fertilizer market reform program on the level of fertilizer use and profitability, there is need to develop efficient soil fertility management strategies for small-scale farmers. Such strategies should incorporate the use of complementary inputs, such as seeds with a high level of response to the balanced nutrient package.     

Identifying high-yield low-emission pathways for the cereal production in South Asia

Increasing agricultural production to meet the growing demand for food whilst reducing agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is the major challenge under the changing climate. To develop long-term policies that address these challenges, strategies are needed to identify high-yield low-emission pathways for particular agricultural production systems. In this paper, we used bio-physical and socio-economic models to analyze the impact of different management practices on crop yield and emissions in two contrasting agricultural production systems of the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) of India. The result revealed the importance of considering both management and socio-economic factors in the development of high-yield low-emission pathways for cereal production systems. Nitrogen use rate and frequency of application, tillage and residue management and manure application significantly affected GHG emissions from the cereal systems. In addition, various socio-economic factors such as gender, level of education, training on climate change adaptation and mitigation and access to information significantly influenced the adoption of technologies contributing to high-yield low-emission pathways. We discussed the policy implications of these findings in the context of food security and climate change.