基于遗传算法的可持续土地利用动态规划

在建立和求解多目标可持续土地利用动态规划模型过程中,采用遗传算法并结合多目标模糊优选理论处理多目标土地利用结构优化问题。其详细步骤为：在分析区域特征基础上构建时间序列;通过现状分析设置土地利用类型决策变量,确定优化目标和约束条件,构建土地利用结构多目标优化模型;用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对土地利用结构优化多目标模型参数进行预测;用遗传算法多目标优化方法对土地利用结构优化模型求解得pareto解集;最后运用多目标模糊优选动态规划方法对规划期内各时间段的pareto解集进行模糊动态优选,以最大优属度判定原则确定出最优决策序列。自贡市的实例表明,该方法有助于解决多目标协调问题,并通过提供多方案选择性,从而使规划更具灵活性,同时又便于充分吸纳公众参与,减少规划中的不确定性,增加规划的科学性、现实性和可操作性。     

基于碳排放约束的土地利用结构优化模型研究及其应用

以经济快速发展区域（县域）的土地利用生态经济系统为研究对象,利用系统科学相关分析方法,结合区域土地利用的经济、生态和社会功能变化趋势,在分析区域未来社会经济科学发展、碳排放目标与土地利用结构变化关系的基础上,研究了土地利用结构调控的CO2当量指数、经济效益指数及其目标函数,通过集成Markov模型和结构优化方法,建立了区域土地利用结构的低碳优化动态调控模型（LUSCC）及其求解方法。最后以江苏泰兴市为例进行了分析验证,综合考虑该区域的发展战略和政策实施情况,获得3种不同碳排放目标调控程度的土地利用优化结构及其调控方法,研究表明,建立的基于碳排放约束的动态优化调控模型,能够满足土地资源配置效率的最大化及其可持续利用要求,为探索区域未来低碳型土地利用结构的优化方法提供参考。     

城市边缘区土地利用动态规划管理系统

城市边缘区是城市中最活跃、变化最为迅速的地区，是城市研究的重点地区之一。在分析了城市边缘区土地利用结构特征以及土地利用结构的形成机制的基础上，设计了城市边缘区土地利用动态规划管理系统，包括动态监测子系统、预警子系统和决策子系统三部分。系统的建立围绕边缘区土地的增值特点和土地利用动态更替规律，通过对边缘区土地质量和地价的动态评价，模拟边缘区土地利用的动态更替趋势，在此基础上，从生态环境效益、社会效益和经济效益三方面对边缘区已有的土地利用规划进行分析和调整，并据此提出管理措施。作为一个循环反馈的运行机制，系统充分利用经济杠杆作为调节的终结，以保证规划的合理调整和实施可能，从而促进边缘区土地利用结构的优化。     

代际公平原则与可持续土地利用规划--南京市的实例研究

本文首先阐述代际公平优先原则的可持续土地利用规划思路；接着通过设计满足代际公平基本要求的五种规划方案与构建可持续土地利用规划三效益最大化的目标函数相结合的方法进行南京市可持续土地利用规划方案的设计；然后应用多目标线性划模型优化南京市的规划方案；最后对规划方案的效益与公平进行评价，从规划方案规划的结果来看，规划方案基本达到了规划方案设计的要求。     

基于生态效益的武汉城市圈土地利用结构优化

满足生态安全的土地利用结构优化是协调社会经济发展与生态环境间矛盾、实现土地持续利用的有效途径。以武汉城市圈为研究区,基于2002~2009年土地利用变更调查汇总数据,引入土壤有机碳储量和土地利用绿当量两个生态指标,评价了城市圈发展不同阶段土地利用结构的生态效益;并通过TOPSIS模型对历年土地利用结构生态合理度进行了评价。在此基础上,以经济效益和生态效益的最大化为目标,构建了2020年多目标优化模型,获得了符合城市圈发展需求的土地利用结构优化方案,呈现"四增三减三稳定"的数量格局,且生态效益指标和生态合理度均呈正向的发展趋势;进而提出了土地资源可持续利用的建议。研究结果对武汉城市圈土地利用总体规划修编、土地利用调控方案的优化以及土地可持续利用具有重要指导意义。     

基于生态效益的武汉城市圈土地利用结构优化

满足生态安全的土地利用结构优化是协调社会经济发展与生态环境间矛盾、实现土地持续利用的有效途径。以武汉城市圈为研究区,基于2002～2009年土地利用变更调查汇总数据,引入土壤有机碳储量和土地利用绿当量两个生态指标,评价了城市圈发展不同阶段土地利用结构的生态效益;并通过TOPSIS模型对历年土地利用结构生态合理度进行了评价。在此基础上,以经济效益和生态效益的最大化为目标,构建了2020年多目标优化模型,获得了符合城市圈发展需求的土地利用结构优化方案,呈现“四增三减三稳定”的数量格局,且生态效益指标和生态合理度均呈正向的发展趋势;进而提出了土地资源可持续利用的建议。研究结果对武汉城市圈土地利用总体规划修编、土地利用调控方案的优化以及土地可持续利用具有重要指导意义     

湖北省土地利用减碳增效系统仿真及结构优化研究

土地利用变化是引起碳排放的重要原因之一,土地经济效益是利用土地的目标之一,如何通过优化土地利用结构实现土地利用减碳增效是值得研究的重要问题。基于系统结构与功能相互作用的视角,梳理复杂系统内变量间的反馈关系,运用系统动力学(SD)进行建模,将约束条件纳入到多目标规划(MOP)中,实现MOP与SD模型整合,进行系统仿真并得出优化后2020年湖北省土地利用结构。结果显示,利用SD-MOP模型能够实现减碳增效目标下土地利用结构优化,与2008年真实值相比,耕地、林地、牧草地及建设用地分别增加了0.33×10~4、30.17×10~4、0.08×10~4和16.37×10~4 hm~2,其他农用地及未利用地分别减少7.23×10~4、33.15×10~4 hm~2;与无约束SD单模型仿真相比,土地利用碳排放量减少了58×10~4 t,经济效益年增长率维持在3.58%,优化方案具有可行性。SD-MOP模型优化的土地利用结构符合区域可持续发展要求,兼顾了土地利用碳减排和经济效益增长的双重目标,能为区域土地资源优化配置提供参考。     

基于生态位与约束CA的土地资源优化配置模型研究——以武汉市黄陂区为例

土地资源优化配置一直是土地科学的核心问题之一。传统的土地资源优化配置模型主要关注土地利用的经济属性而忽略土地利用行为的生态环境效应．已不适应可持续发展的要求；并且在优化内容上都是对土地资源数量结构的优化。忽视了土地资源空间布局优化．近几年很多学者通过与相关模型算法的集成形成的优化模型从一定程度上对数量结构优化模型进行了改造。实现了社会、生态、经济三效益的优化配置目标。但将土地资源数量结构优化与空间布局优化系统研究的模型却非常少见。本文运用生态位模型对土地资源数量结构进行优化进而将数量优化结果作为CA模拟的约束条件对空间布局进行优化．实现了土地资源数量结构优化与空间布局优化的统一。     

土地利用结构优化研究综述

从系统分析的观点出发总结了目前土地利用结构优化模型,包括模型的发展回顾、建模方法和建模的步骤等。土地利用结构优化以建模理论进行划分,可分为：基于适宜性评价理论的优化模型、基于景观生态学理论的优化模型和基于复杂适应系统理论的优化模型;以建模的方法划分,可分为：线性模型和非线性模型。通过优化模型建立的方法对线性规划模型、多目标规划模型、灰色线性规划模型和系统动力学模型进行归纳。在此基础上概括出基于GIS的土地利用结构优化的两种模型：以数量优化和适宜性评价为核心的空间配置优化模型和以元胞自动机模拟演化为核心的优化模型,归纳出空间优化配置模型的建模步骤：预处理、数量优化、空间优化、评价结果4个步骤;元胞自动机演化模型的建模步骤：系统定义、系统抽象、模型实现、方法验证、模型校正和应用6个步骤,并针对模型的优缺点进行评价。指出作为土地资源可持续利用的有效手段,以元胞自动机模型为核心的多模型耦合和系统集成的土地利用优化模式将会是今后土地利用结构优化的发展趋势。     

大城市郊区土地利用结构类型区评价：以南京市为例

通过对南京市郊区土地利用结构类型区划分指标的模糊聚类分析，将南京城郊划分为８个类型区，并比较分析了各个类型区的土地利用特征及集约经营程度，土地利用效益，最后指出：为了优化配置郊区土地资源，南京市郊区土地利用必须采取因地制宜，综合利用，集约经营，增加投入，保护耕地，持续利用的措施。     

WSSD 2002, Latin America and Brazil: Biodiversity and Indigenous People

Latin America comprehends notable variations in terms of natural environment, availability of natural resources, living standards, and demographic patterns. Latin America is a mosaic of cultures, post- and pre-Columbian. The rich variety of life forms discovered and described by chroniclers and traveling naturalists in the Neotropics contributed to the proposal, in mid-XVIIIth century, of a new system of classification and a scientific code of nomenclature for all organisms. Biodiversity was, for many centuries, a source of resources to be exploited in natura. In scientific circles, its inventory became the domain of taxonomists. But modern technology showed how important the miriad of life forms really are as sources of chemical molecules to be engineered as drugs and reassembled as novel manufactured products. We are on the brink of a new agricultural and medical revolution, thanks to the techniques of genetic engineering, which will lead eventually to the elimination of hunger and malnutrition.In this essay, the Brazilian environmental and social heterogeneity will serve as an example to illustrate some key points, which have influenced sustainability policies. The Amazon deforestation and indigenous knowledge (IK), subjects often associated with areas of high biodiversity, are usually the focus of environmental debates. The importance of IK in integrating development, reducing poverty and sustainability are considered together with the intellectual property rights of native populations.In the World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) Implementation Plan, a few paragraphs were dedicated to Latin America, because of the pre-existing Action Platform on the Road to Johannesburg 2002, approved in Rio de Janeiro in October 2001. This paper calls attention to the need to draw up specific environmental policies for a region which shows an extremely high cultural and biological diversity, associated with a high availability of forests and water, among other resources.     

Latitudinal variation in size of freshwater pulmonate mollusks (Mollusca: Gastropoda: Pulmonata) in Western Siberia

The size of shells in some freshwater pulmonate mollusk species abundant in Western Siberia (Lymnaea fragilis, L. terebra, Planorbis planorbis, and Anisus leucostoma) is relatively large in the south and decreases in the north. It is supposed that this phenomenon is explained by the fact that the season with conditions allowing the growth of mollusks is shorter in the north than in the south of Western Siberia.     

湘鄂赣农业资源与专业化区域化方向

湘鄂赣地理位置优越,农业资源丰富,稻谷、茶叶、麻类、棉花、油料、柑桔和淡水产品、禽蛋、肉类等在我国居有重要的地位,因此,大力发展三省农业生产,对我国人民实现小康生活具有战略意义。今后,要加速专业化区域化进程。我们找出生产潜力所在:改造低产田、低产园、低产水面;开发“三高”技术;开垦荒地、荒山、荒水;适当提高复种指数。通过建设,三省主要农产品将自给有余,还可满足国内外市场的需要。努力方向:高效农业开发——综合农业开发,吨粮田开发,玉米带开发,饲料稻开发,山区开发;合理布局农业生产;深化农业商品基地建设,发展综合利用,搞活商品流通;全面提高农业现代化水平,加强农业社会服务体系。     

Ethnosciences––A step towards the integration of scientific and indigenous forms of knowledge in the management of natural resources for the future

Integration of indigenous knowledge and ethnoscientific approaches into contemporary frameworks for conservation and sustainable management of natural resources will become increasingly important in policies on an international and national level, both in countries that are industrialised and those that have a developing status. We set the scene on how this can be done by exploring the key conditions and dimensions of a dialogue between ȁ8ontologiesȁ9 and the roles, which ethnosciences could play in this process. First, the roles of ethnosciences in the context of sustainable development were analysed, placing emphasis on the implications arising when western sciences aspire to relate to indigenous forms of␣knowledge. Secondly, the contributions of ethnosciences to such an ȁ8inter- ontological dialogueȁ9 were explored, based on an ethnoecological study of the encounter of sciences and indigenous knowledge in the Andes of Bolivia, and reviewed experiences from mangrove systems in Kenya, India and Sri Lanka, and from case-studies in other ecosystems world-wide, incl. Australia, Burkina Faso, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Guatemala, Indonesia, Nepal, Niger, Philippines, Senegal, South-Africa and Tanzania.     

Paradoxical ozone associations could be due to methyl nitrite from combustion of methyl ethers or esters in engine fuels

We review studies of the effects of low ambient ozone concentrations on morbidity that found a negative coefficient for ozone concentration. We call this a Paradoxical Ozone Association (POA). All studies were in regions with methyl ether in gasoline. All but one study carefully controlled for the effects of other criterion pollutants, so the phenomenon cannot be attributed to them. One was in southern California in mid-summer when ozone levels are highest. Because ozone is created by sunlight, the most plausible explanation for a POA would be an ambient pollutant that is rapidly destroyed by sunlight, such as methyl nitrite (MN). A previously published model of engine exhaust chemistry suggested methyl ether in the fuel will create MN in the exhaust. MN is known to be highly toxic, and closely related alkyl nitrites are known to induce respiratory sensitivity in humans. Support for the interpretation comes from many studies, including three linking asthma symptoms to methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) and the observation that a POA has not been seen in regions without ether in gasoline. We also note that studies in southern California show a historical trend from more significant to less significant ozone-health associations. The timing of those changes is consistent with the known timing of the introduction of gasoline oxygenated with MTBE in that region.     

Household water in rural asia: a case study of the construction of a piped water system in Bangui,Ilocos Norte,Philippines

In early 1980 an extension agent was assigned to the rural municipality of Bangui, Ilocos Norte, Philippines to work on development projects – in particular the improvement of the supply of safe water for drinking and sanitation. After many months of visiting spring sites and meeting with community leaders, a small part of the municipality was selected to build a gravity fed piped water system. Although the system took many months to plan, identify funding and construct, the 600 community members were ultimately rewarded with house to house connections that enabled them to achieve per capita water consumption levels above the minimum levels recommended by the World Health Organization. Of course, money was critical to ensure the project’s success, but many other factors played an equally critical role. For instance, without the active participation of the community and the unwavering support of the community leadership the project would not have survived the initial planning stage. Also, the extension agent played a critical role by acting as a conduit between funding agencies, the Bureau of Public Works and the community. The primary lesson to be learned from this experience is that the success of rural development projects is largely driven by the synergy between the community, technical support, financial support, and agents of change such as extension agents. If any of these ingredients had been lacking, the project result would likely have been far different.     

Prognosis of the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystems by means of universal kriging

The use of quantitative data for constructing prognostic maps of the dynamics of ecosystem degradation and restoration by nonlinear simulation methods is a topical field of landscape ecology. This method of dynamic cartography is based on fiberwise comparison of data on the state of Chernye Zemli (the Kalmyk Republic, Russia) in different years and the detailed analysis of the period on which the prognosis was based. For this purpose, materials of repeated aerial and satellite photography obtained during a long period (1954–1993) were used. Comparison of maps characterizing the dynamics of Chernye Zemli between 1958 and 1993 allows prognostic electronic maps for the next 10–15 years (with a five-year interval) to be drawn and land prognosis for the next 20–30 years (1998–2023) to be obtained. Deceased     

Distributions of personal VOC exposures: a population-based analysis

Information regarding the distribution of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and exposures is scarce, and there have been few, if any, studies using population-based samples from which representative estimates can be derived. This study characterizes distributions of personal exposures to ten different VOCs in the U.S. measured in the 1999-2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Personal VOC exposures were collected for 669 individuals over 2-3 days, and measurements were weighted to derive national-level statistics. Four common exposure sources were identified using factor analyses: gasoline vapor and vehicle exhaust, methyl tert-butyl ether (MBTE) as a gasoline additive, tap water disinfection products, and household cleaning products. Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes chloroform, and tetrachloroethene were fit to log-normal distributions with reasonably good agreement to observations. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene and trichloroethene were fit to Pareto distributions, and MTBE to Weibull distribution, but agreement was poor. However, distributions that attempt to match all of the VOC exposure data can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the level and frequency of the higher exposures. Maximum Gumbel distributions gave generally good fits to extrema, however, they could not fully represent the highest exposures of the NHANES measurements. The analysis suggests that complete models for the distribution of VOC exposures require an approach that combines standard and extreme value distributions, and that carefully identifies outliers. This is the first study to provide national-level and representative statistics regarding the VOC exposures, and its results have important implications for risk assessment and probabilistic analyses.     

Geographic Variation in the Seasonal Reproductive Strategy of the Mite Varroa jacobsoni in the Honeybee Nest

Variation in the reproduction of Varroa jacobsoni mite was studied in relation to the expansion of the range of its parasitism on the honeybee. Geographic differences in the seasonal dynamics of mite reproduction in the nests of bee families were revealed. Variation in the sex ratio of mites and the factors inhibiting their reproduction at the northern boundary of the honeybee range are considered. The forms of parthenogenetic reproduction in V. jacobsoni are discussed.