高速公路交通安全现状分析及管理对策

为了分析高速公路交通安全现状,提出高速公路交通安全综合管理对策,采用对比分析法,研判当前高速公路交通安全形势,统计分析高速公路交通事故特征规律,提出基于“6E”的高速公路交通安全系统管理对策。以1994～2013年期间的高速公路交通事故统计数据为分析对象,采用事故起数、事故死亡人数、事故率、致死率、重大事故起数等作为评价指标,对比交通事故总量和不同等级公路事故情况,分析了当前我国高速公路交通安全形势。从交通安全执法管理的角度,对高速公路交通事故发生时间、事故形态、肇事车辆类型、事故原因、肇事驾驶人驾龄等进行了特征分析,在立法、教育、工程、执法、急救、评价6个方面,提出了高速公路交通安全管理系统化对策,为进一步认识当前高速公路交通安全形势,完善高速公路交通安全管理提供技术支持。     

谁放过了安全隐患

去年全国交通事故的相关统计数据近日公布,其中,高速公路交通事故死亡人数大幅攀升引人注目。有关部门分析认为,高速公路通车里程的快速增长;车流量增大以及驾驶人对高速驾驶不适应是造成事故上升的主要原因。这个结论是有数据支持的,不容置疑。那么,还有没有无法靠数据说话,同样不容忽视的其他原因呢?     

危险化学品公路运输事故新特点及对策研究

统计分析了2008年1月～2010年5月我国发生的485起危险化学品公路运输事故。从事故发生的原因、事故涉及的化学品、事故造成的危害、事故发生的月份分布及年份变化等几个方面,分析了近年来危险化学品公路运输事故的新特点及变化规律。经统计分析,道路交通事故是引发危险化学品运输事故的主要原因之一;侧翻是危险化学品车辆最容易发生的道路交通事故;而随着我国高速公路的迅猛发展,追尾造成的危险化学品运输事故数量呈上升趋势;危险化学品公路运输过程中易燃液体事故起数最多,爆炸品和毒性物质事故造成的人员伤亡最严重;春节前后取代夏季,成为近两年危险化学品运输事故高发期。针对这些特点,对我国危险化学品公路运输安全管理与监控提出了建议。     

杭州高速公路交通事故流行病学特点分析

目的:研究杭州高速公路交通事故的流行病学特点。方法:收集了2003—2006年杭州高速公路交通事故资料并对其进行流行病学分析。结果:①2003—2006年期间,发生交通事故8906起,涉及车辆12692辆,死亡115人,受伤1976人,造成直接经济损失1.15亿元;②交通事故以10月和1月发生最多,每周事故数呈逐渐上升趋势,9:00—11:00点和14:00—16:00点为事故的高发时段;③因驾驶员造成的交通事故超过事故总数的90%,主要原因为未保持安全的纵向距离和操作不当;车辆原因主要为爆胎和制动问题、天气及照明对事故有一定影响;④在高速公路交通事故中,乘客与驾驶员受到的危害程度相同。结论:研究高速公路交通事故的流行病学特点将有利于采取科学的措施减小高速公路交通事故给社会带来的危害。     

谁放过了交全隐患

去年全国交通事故的相关统计数据近日公布，其中．高速公路交通事故死亡人数大幅攀升引人注目。有关部门分析认为．高速公路通车里程的快速增长；车流量增大以及驾驶人对高速驾驶不适应是造成事故上升的主要原因。这个结论是有数据支持的，不容置疑，那么，还有没有无法靠数据说话，同样不存忽视的其他原因呢？     

全国安全生产形势分析与对策建议（下）

2003年全国安全生产的主要特点一、四个下降全国各类事故总量下降全国各类事故起数、死亡人数,同比分别下降10.5%和1.9%。其中,道路交通事故起数,死亡人数同比分别下降13.7%和4.6%;煤矿事故起数,死亡人数同比分别下降7.9%和8.0%;农业机械事故起数,死亡人数同比分别下降32.7%和11.5%。全国亿元国内生产总值死亡率下降全国亿元国内生产总值死亡率为1.17,同比降低0.19,下降14.2%。全国有26个省(区、市)亿元国内生产总值死亡率呈下降     

交通资讯

集中整治三个月福建交通事故四项指数全面下降8月至10月,福建全省各级公安机关在省委、省政府的统一部署下,扎实开展了为期三个月的道路交通安全集中整治大会战,全省道路交通安全形势明显好转,事故死亡总量和较大事故明显下降。期间,全省发生道路交通事故4555起,死亡1000人,同比死亡数下降24.81%,发生较大事故10起,同比下降16.7%,其中高速公路较大事故起数同比下降66.67%。     

基于GM(1,1)模型的军用车辆交通事故预测研究

在分析军用车辆交通事故预测技术重要性的基础上,根据2005—2009年的军用车辆交通事故原始数据,建立军车交通事故的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型。对军用车辆交通事故起数和死亡人数进行短期预测,并通过实例验证预测模型的适用性。通过模型验证结果可以看出:GM(1,1)模型预测所得数据较为精确。预测结论如下:未来几年,军车交通事故会稳步下降,事故发生次数会快速减少,但死亡人数相对减少较缓。     

2004年1至8月全区道路交通事故情况分析

2004年1至8月全区共发生道路交通事故8885起,造成2401人死亡、9369人受伤,直接经济损失3917.16万元,与上年同期相比,事故起数减少1349起,下降13.18%;死亡人数增加52人,上升2.21%;受伤人数增加10人,上升0.11%;直接经济损失减少915.11万元,下降18.94%.其中死亡道路交通事故2022起,造成2401人死亡、1592人受伤,直接经济损失1072.02万元,与上年同期相比,事故起数下降0.54%,死亡人数上升2.21%,受伤人数上升0.89%,直接经济损失下降2.43%.今年1至8月有8个市交通事故死亡人数比上年同期下降,其中北海、崇左、钦州、来宾、梧州、防城港、桂林7个市降幅在10%以下;有7个市交通事故死亡人数比上年同期上升,其中百色、河池、柳州贵港、玉林5个市和高速公路增幅在10%以上.     

塔克拉玛干沙漠公路交通事故趋势预测分析

应用塔克拉玛干沙漠干线公路建成通车以来的交通事故统计数据,在分析交通事故主要指标发展变化特征和分布特征的基础上,建立了适用于沙漠公路交通事故特点的GM(1,1)预测模型,对未来几年内交通事故发展趋势进行了预测。预测结果表明,未来几年沙漠公路交通事故次数、死亡人数、受伤人数以及直接经济损失等4项指数将分别以15.9%,10%,4.5%和5%的年平均增长率快速增长。同时针对预测结果提出了相应的对策。     

我国公路交通事故的现状及特征分析

根据2000—2006年全国公路交通事故统计数据,以2006年为重点,分析当前我国公路交通事故的发展形势、地区差异和事故特征。研究表明:我国的公路交通事故自2003年开始总体由快速上升转为持续下降,但高速公路和西部地区的公路交通事故仍有增长可能;与经济欠发达地区相比,经济发达地区的事故总量较大,但事故死亡率较低;国道、省道和高等级公路的事故死亡率均大幅高于其他公路;约80%的死亡事故是发生在平直、一般弯和一般坡等良好路段上的车辆互碰、碰撞行人和翻车,76%的特大事故属于坠车和正面碰撞;雾、雪等恶劣天气更易在高等级公路上引发交通事故。     

Risk factors in urban road traffic accidents

INTRODUCTION: The urban road traffic accident (RTA) risks for the city of Zagreb, Croatia, from 1999 through 2000 were analyzed with the aim of reducing the increasing injury incidence. METHOD: Simple and bivariate analysis using chi(2), odds ratio, and confidence interval of 95% was used to determine risks in three outcome groups: killed, severely, and mildly injured. RESULTS: There were 528 RTA victims consisting of 260 severely, 213 mildly injured, and 55 killed at the scene of an accident and during transportation. More fatal accidents occurred during night hours (OR=3.78; 95% CI, 2.08-6.85), on urban road links (OR=2.33; 95% CI, 1.30-4.19), and at exceeding speed limit (OR=2.56; 95% CI, 1.43-4.61). More people were injured than killed on urban junctions (OR=5.27; 95% CI, 2.21-12.57). The highest combined risk of dying or being severely injured was found in males, driving at excessive speed, on urban links, and during bad visibility (OR=16.15; 95% CI, 3.901-66.881). CONCLUSION: These results will influence the urban traffic police enforcement measures, which will change inappropriate behavior of drivers and protect the least experienced road users.     

高速公路交通事故分析及预防对策研究

利用济青高速公路 1998～ 1999年发生的 10 85起交通事故数据 ,在资料收集、处理和统计分析的基础上 ,对影响高速公路交通事故的人、车辆、道路环境、天气和交通量等主要因素进行了分析 ,并与国外的统计结果进行对比研究 ,预测出随着高速公路交通量的增长 ,事故率将会增加。此外 ,笔者针对影响高速公路事故因素提出了主动性、被动性预防对策 ,这些对策的实施将会减少高速公路事故的发生     

Investigation of powered 2-wheeler accident involvement in urban arterials by considering real-time traffic and weather data

Objective: Understanding the various factors that affect accident risk is of particular concern to decision makers and researchers. The incorporation of real-time traffic and weather data constitutes a fruitful approach when analyzing accident risk. However, the vast majority of relevant research has no specific focus on vulnerable road users such as powered 2-wheelers (PTWs). Moreover, studies using data from urban roads and arterials are scarce. This study aims to add to the current knowledge by considering real-time traffic and weather data from 2 major urban arterials in the city of Athens, Greece, in order to estimate the effect of traffic, weather, and other characteristics on PTW accident involvement.

Methods: Because of the high number of candidate variables, a random forest model was applied to reveal the most important variables. Then, the potentially significant variables were used as input to a Bayesian logistic regression model in order to reveal the magnitude of their effect on PTW accident involvement.

Results: The results of the analysis suggest that PTWs are more likely to be involved in multivehicle accidents than in single-vehicle accidents. It was also indicated that increased traffic flow and variations in speed have a significant influence on PTW accident involvement. On the other hand, weather characteristics were found to have no effect.

Conclusions: The findings of this study can contribute to the understanding of accident mechanisms of PTWs and reduce PTW accident risk in urban arterials.     

基于多Agent技术的交通事故救援系统的研究

着重介绍了目前人工智能领域的研究热点问题———Agent技术的概念与原理 ,以及多Agent组的概念和分类 ;提出了基于多Agent技术的交通事故救援系统的流程框架 ;论述了该系统每一个Agent成员所能够完成的主要功能 ;通过该系统的实现 ,可以提高交通事故的及时报警与快速解决的效率 ,实行更加有效的交通流量合理分配 ;在利用既有交通基础设施的基础上增强了出行者的出行便利。笔者认为 ,随着Agent技术和网络技术研究的不断深入 ,基于Agent的应用研究必将有着更广泛的应用前景     

基于交通量的平面信号控制交叉口交通冲突模拟研究

针对我国交通冲突技术发展尚处于起步阶段 ,交通冲突数据统计尚不充分的现状 ,笔者研究了交通量和交通事故、交通冲突的密切关系 ,尝试建立以交通量为基础的交通冲突数学模型 ,力求更加准确地对平面交叉口进行安全评价 ,克服传统的基于事故统计的安全评价方法的不足。     

Assessing driver behavior using shrp2 adverse weather data

IntroductionThis study explored how drivers adapt to inclement weather in terms of driving speed, situational awareness, and visibility as road surface conditions change from dry to slippery and visibility decreases. The proposed work mined existing data from the SHRP 2 NDS for drivers who were involved in weather-related crash and near-crash events. Baseline events were also mined to create related metadata necessary for behavioral comparisons. Methods: Researchers attempted, to the greatest extent possible, to match non-adverse-weather driving scenarios that are similar to the crash and near-crash event for each driver. The ideal match scenario would be at a day prior to the crash during non-adverse weather conditions having the same driver, at the same time of day, with the same traffic level on the same road on which the crash or near-crash occurred. Once the matched scenarios have been identified, a detailed analysis will be performed to determine how a driver’s behavior changed from normal driving to inclement-weather driving. Results: Data collected indicated that, irrespective of site location (i.e., state), most crashes and near-crashes occurred in rain, with only about 12% occurring in snowy conditions. Also, the number of near-crashes was almost double the number of crashes showing that many drivers were able to avoid a crash by executing an evasive maneuver such as braking or steering. Conclusions: Most types of near crashes were rear-end and sideswipe avoidance epochs, as the drivers may have had a difficult time merging or trying to change lanes due to low visibility or traffic. Hard braking combined with swerving were the most commonly used evasive maneuvers, occurring when drivers did not adjust their speeds accordingly for specific situations. Practical applications: Results from this study are expected to be utilized to educate and guide drivers toward more confident and strategic driving behavior in adverse weather.     

Evaluating the speed camera sites selection criteria in the UK

Introduction: Speed cameras have been implemented to improve road safety over recent decades in the UK. Although the safety impacts of the speed camera have been estimated thoroughly, the criteria for selecting camera sites have rarely been studied. This paper evaluates the current speed camera sites selection criteria in the UK based on safety performance. Method: A total of 332 speed cameras and 2,513 control sites with road traffic accident data are observed from 2002 to 2010. Propensity score matching method and empirical Bayes method are employed and compared to estimate the safety effects of speed cameras under different scenarios. Results: First, the main characteristics of speed cameras meeting and not meeting the selection criteria are identified. The results indicate that the proximity to school zones and residential neighborhoods, as well as population density, are the main considerations when selecting speed camera sites. Then the official criteria used for selecting camera sites are evaluated, including site length (a stretch of road that has a fixed speed camera or has had one in the past), previous accident history, and risk value (a numerical scale of the risk level). The results suggest that a site length of 500 m should be used to achieve the optimum safety effects of speed cameras. Furthermore, speed cameras are most effective in reducing crashes when the requirement of minimum number of historical killed and seriously injured collisions (KSIs) is met. In terms of the risk value, it is found that the speed cameras can obtain optimal effectiveness with a risk value greater than or equal to 30, rather than the recommended risk value of 22.     

Incorporating real-time traffic and weather data to explore road accident likelihood and severity in urban arterials

IntroductionThe effective treatment of road accidents and thus the enhancement of road safety is a major concern to societies due to the losses in human lives and the economic and social costs. The investigation of road accident likelihood and severity by utilizing real-time traffic and weather data has recently received significant attention by researchers. However, collected data mainly stem from freeways and expressways. Consequently, the aim of the present paper is to add to the current knowledge by investigating accident likelihood and severity by exploiting real-time traffic and weather data collected from urban arterials in Athens, Greece.MethodRandom Forests (RF) are firstly applied for preliminary analysis purposes. More specifically, it is aimed to rank candidate variables according to their relevant importance and provide a first insight on the potential significant variables. Then, Bayesian logistic regression as well finite mixture and mixed effects logit models are applied to further explore factors associated with accident likelihood and severity respectively.ResultsRegarding accident likelihood, the Bayesian logistic regression showed that variations in traffic significantly influence accident occurrence. On the other hand, accident severity analysis revealed a generally mixed influence of traffic variations on accident severity, although international literature states that traffic variations increase severity. Lastly, weather parameters did not find to have a direct influence on accident likelihood or severity.ConclusionsThe study added to the current knowledge by incorporating real-time traffic and weather data from urban arterials to investigate accident occurrence and accident severity mechanisms.Practical applicationThe identification of risk factors can lead to the development of effective traffic management strategies to reduce accident occurrence and severity of injuries in urban arterials.     

Road safety effects of roundabouts in Flanders

INTRODUCTION: This paper analyzes the effect on road safety of 95 roundabouts that were built in Flanders between 1994 and 1999. RESULTS: The study shows that the effect on the number and severity of road accidents adjusted for the trend and regression to the mean is significant, but varies considerably in accordance with the speed limit regime on the intersection. Roundabouts are most effective on intersections of a main road with a high speed limit (90 km/h) and an adjacent road with a lower speed limit (50 or 70 km/h). The empirical analysis reveals a reduction of 34% (varying between 15% and 59%) for the total number of injury accidents, 30% (7%-45%) for light injury accidents, and 38% (27%-72%) for serious injury accidents. This study also takes a closer look at the impact of different post-implementation periods using accident data of 1-, 3-, or 6-years after the construction of a roundabout on the calculated effectiveness results and warns for a severe underestimation when a one-year period is used. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: An effective traffic safety policy based on scientific results thus requires some patience from the policy-makers.