Natural resource depletion and the economic performance of local districts: suggestions from a within-country analysis

SUMMARY

Studying the interactions among ecological factors and economic performance measured at the local scale is necessary to suggest policies able to mitigate natural resource depletion in complex ecosystems, like those in the Mediterranean region. The aim of this paper is to explore the relationship among natural resource depletion due to land degradation (LD) and some economic characteristics of local labour systems in Italy, a country where many areas, especially southern regions, are vulnerable. LD was estimated using an environmental sensitive area index, covering the national territory at a fine scale, which takes into account ecological factors such as climate, soil and vegetation. Economic indicators used here consider per capita income, land productivity, production and labour productivity by sector (agriculture, industry and services). A regression analysis was built-up at the LLS scale using an index change over time (1990–2000) as dependent variable and economic variables as predictors. A principal component analysis (PCA) was carried out to synthesise the outputs of the regression analysis. Results indicate a negative relationship among per capita income and LD over the whole study area. However, other variables showed a significant correlation with the dependent variable, highlighting the importance of local factors to increase land vulnerability. In order to clarify the contribution of economic factors to natural resource depletion it is necessary to drive integrate policies to combat LD in dry Mediterranean areas.     

2000—2007年珠峰自然保护区植被时空变化与驱动因子

采用遥感与GIS相结合的方法研究了珠峰自然保护区2000—2007年之间的植被时空变化过程和驱动机制问题。通过一元线性回归斜率计算获取了基于EVI数据的珠峰自然保护区植被变化趋势,以及表现2000—2007年植被变化的矢量图层。利用GIS时间动画技术,建立了7个时间点内不同间隔的植被时空演化过程快照,并结合ArcEngine构建了植被变化监测的时序分析流程,提取和分析了植被变化过程的时空特征。依据年平均温和年降水量观测记录进行了植被变化的气候因子分析,依据道路、河流缓冲区的居民点密度与植被退化面积比例的相关性,分析了人类活动影响,并讨论了不同植被退化区域在多重因素作用下的变化驱动因子。拟合了主要社会经济发展指标与植被变化的相关性,从统计数据方面讨论了珠峰自然保护区社会经济发展对植被变化的影响作用。结果表明：珠峰自然保护区植被变化的总体趋势以稳定为主,但植被退化趋势超过了变好趋势。同时,核心区植被变好趋势明显,实验区植被退化趋势严重。保护区南坡植被受气候变化干扰小,保持了大部分变好趋势;北坡由于降水减少造成湿地植被退化,对草地的长势带来消极作用。人类活动与植被状态变化有密切关系,在沟谷地带的破坏作用明显。并且,植被退化趋势与农业耕地面积扩大以及放牧影响关联紧密,而牲畜饲养与林业发展都未对保护区植被变化造成明显影响。     

Determining soil quality in urban agricultural regions by soil enzyme-based index

Urban agricultural soils are highly variable, and careful selection of sensitive indicators is needed for the assessment of soil quality. This study is proposed to develop an index based on soil enzyme activities for assessing the quality of urban agricultural soils. Top soils were collected from urban agricultural areas of Korea, and soil chemical properties, texture, microbial fatty acids, and enzyme activities were determined. The soils belonged to five textural classes with the highest frequency of sandy loam. There was no clear correlation between the soil chemical properties and soil microbial properties. Principal component analysis (PCA) and factor analysis were applied to microbial groups for identification of microbial community variation in soils. Two soil groups, namely group 1 (G1) and group 2 (G2), based on microbial community abundance were examined by PCA, and those were more prominent in factor analysis. The G1 soils showed higher microbial community abundance than G2 soils. The canonical discriminant analysis was applied to the enzyme activities of sandy loam soil to develop an index, and the index validation was confirmed using the unused soils and published data. The high-quality soils in published literature assigned the high valued index. Microbial fatty acids and soil enzyme activities can be suitable indicators for soil quality evaluation of urban agricultural soils.

     

Spectral characteristics of plant communities from salt marshes: A case study from Chongming Dongtan, Yangtze estuary, China

The spectral reflectance of recently formed salt marshes at the mouth of the Yangtze River, which are undergoing invasion by Spartina alterniflora, were assessed to determine the potential utility of remotely sensed data in assessing future invasion and changes in species composition. Following a review of published research on remote sensing of salt marshes, 53 locations along three transects were sampled for paired data on plant species composition and spectral reflectance using a FieldSpec? Pro JR Field Portable Spectroradiometer. Spectral data were processed concerning reflectance, and the averaged reflectance values for each sample were reanalysed to correspond to a 12-waveband bandset of the Compact Airborne Spectral Imager. The spectral data were summarised using principal components analysis (PCA) and the relationships between the vegetation composition, and the PCA axes of spectral data were examined. The first PCA axis of the reflectance data showed a strong correlation with variability in near infrared reflectance and ‘brightness’, while the second axis was correlated with visible reflectance and ‘greenness’. Total vegetation cover, vegetation height, and mudflat cover were all significantly related to the first axis. The implications of this in terms of the ability of remote sensing to distinguish the various salt marsh species and in particular the invasive species S. alterniflora were discussed. Major differences in species with various physiognomies could be recognised but problems occurred in separating early colonising S. alterniflora from other species at that stage. Further work using multi-seasonal hyperspectral data might assist in solving these problems.     

Assessment of temporal and spatial variations in water quality using multivariate statistical methods： a case study of the Xin＇anjiang River,China

This study evaluated the temporal and spatial variations of water quality data sets for the Xin＇anjiang River through the use of multivariate statistical techniques, including cluster analysis （CA）, discriminant analysis （DA）, correlation analysis, and principal component analysis （PCA）. The water samples, measured by ten parameters, were collected every month for three years （2008-2010） from eight sampling stations located along the river. The hierarchical CA classified the 12 months into three periods （First, Second and Third Period） and the eight sampling sites into three groups （Groups 1, 2 and 3） based on seasonal differences and various pollution levels caused by physicochemical properties and anthropogenic activ- ities. DA identified three significant parameters （tempera- ture, pH and E.coli） to distinguish temporal groups with close to 76% correct assignment. The DA also discovered five parameters （temperature, electricity conductivity, total nitrogen, chemical oxygen demand and total phosphorus） for spatial variation analysis, with 80.56% correct assignment. The non-parametric correlation coefficient （Spear- man R） explained the relationship between the water quality parameters and the basin characteristics, and the GIS made the results visual and direct. The PCA identified four PCs for Groups 1 and 2, and three PCs for Group 3. These PCs captured 68.94%, 67.48% and 70.35% of the total variance of Groups 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Although natural pollution affects the Xin＇anjiang River, the main sources of pollution included agricultural activities, industrial waste, and domestic wastewater.     

1980—2015年青藏高原植被变化研究

青藏高原地形复杂,气候类型独特,是北半球气候变化的调节器。全球气候变化直接影响植被变化,探讨植被变化对了解青藏高原的环境状况及环境保护与恢复具有重要意义。选取青藏高原作为研究区域,基于1980年和2015年的1 km土地利用数据利用转移矩阵研究植被的转换变化,利用1981—2015年的GIMMS-NDVI数据借助趋势分析法分析土地利用未变化区域的植被覆被变化,并通过相关分析法研究植被变化与气候因子的关系。研究表明:1980—2015年,青藏高原植被的转换变化表现为转入面积大于转出面积,植被面积整体增加。植被类型变化的主要表现形式为农作物和草地面积增加,乔木林地和灌木林面积减少;草地的面积变化最大,农作物、乔木林地和灌木林面积变化很小。从不同植被类型和生态分区来看,植被覆被变化表现为农作物面积较小,分布于半干旱地区,NDVI呈上升趋势;乔木林地位于东南部湿润半湿润地区,生长状况呈现退化趋势;灌木林位于东部边缘和东南部的湿润半湿润和半干旱地区,呈退化趋势;草地分布范围最大,生长情况趋于改善。近35年来,青藏高原的植被覆盖整体趋于好转,低覆盖度、干旱半干旱地区趋于改善,高覆盖度、湿润半湿润地区出现退化。研究时段内,青藏高原趋于暖湿化,NDVI变化与年平均气温、年降水量变化呈正相关,对降水变化更为敏感。不同植被类型对气候变化响应不同,农作物相关系数最高。乔木林地与气温和降水变化呈负相关,农作物和草地则呈正相关,灌木林与降水变化呈正相关,与气温变化呈负相关。     

1994—2008年河南省植被净第一性生产力及其时空变化

基于地理信息系统和卫星遥感技术,利用地面气象数据、遥感数据和土地分类等数据,根据河南省实际植被覆盖和自然地理情况,应用改进的CASA模型估算了1994—2008年间河南省植被净第一性生产力及其时空变化。结果表明：河南省植被净第一性生产力与年均温度的相关性好于植被年净第一性生产力与年降水量和年均太阳辐射之间的相关性,温度是限制河南省植被净第一性生产力的主要因子;15年来河南省植被净第一性生产力呈增加趋势,但不明显;河南省主要植被类型的净第一性生产力从大到小依次为林地、灌丛、耕地、草地、其它植被,它们随时间的变化趋势极为一致。     

Post-fire vegetation regrowth detection in the Deiva Marina region (Liguria-Italy) using Landsat TM and ETM+ data

Obtaining quantitative information about the recovery of fire-affected ecosystems is of utmost importance from the management and decision-making point of view. Nowadays the concern about natural environment protection and recovery is much greater than in the past. However, the resources and tools available for its management are still not sufficient. Thus, attention and precision is needed when decisions must be taken. Quantitative estimates on how the vegetation is recovering after a fire can be of help for evaluating the necessity of human intervention on the fire-affected ecosystem, and their importance will grow as the problem of forest fires, climate change and desertification increases.This article performs a comparison of methods to extract quantitative estimates of vegetation cover regrowth with Landsat TM and ETM+ data in an area that burned during the summer of 1998 in the Liguria region (Italy). In order to eliminate possible sources of error, a thorough pre-processing was carried out, including a careful geometric correction (reaching RMSE lower than 0.3 pixels), a topographic correction by means of a constrained Minnaert model and a combination of absolute and relative atmospheric correction methods. Pseudo Invariant Features (PIF) were identified by implementing an automated selection method based in temporal Principal Component Analysis (PCA), which has been called multi-Temporal n-Dimensional Principal Component Analysis (mT-nD-PCA).Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA) was compared against quantitative vegetation indices which are based on well known traditional vegetation indices like Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI). Accuracy assessment was performed by regressing vegetation cover results obtained with each method against field data gathered during the fieldwork campaign carried out in the study area. Results obtained showed how vegetation cover fractions extracted from the NDVI based quantitative index were the most accurate, being superior to the rest of the techniques applied, including SMA.     

基于MODIS时序数据北回归线(云南段)地区植被物候时空变化及其对气候响应分析

植被物候作为自然界规律性、周期性事件,对开展全球气候变化、植被长势观测等研究具有重要价值。以北回归线(云南段)穿过的县域为研究区,基于长时间序列MODIS EVI(Enhanced Vegetation Index,EVI)、土地利用类型和气候因子数据,采用S-G滤波、动态阈值、相关分析等方法分析19 a(2001—2019年)间植被物候的时空分布特征及其对水热因子的响应。结果表明,(1)海拔和地势起伏在物候地域分异中作用显著,植被物候存在明显的垂直地带性分布特征。山地与河谷、坝子、低海拔区的物候值差异较大,山地地区的植被生长季开始期(Start of Season,SOS)在192—240 d,生长季结束期(End of Season,EOS)在次年144—192 d,生长季长度(Length of Season,LOS)为272—304 d;河谷、坝子、东部低海拔地区的植被SOS在80—112 d,EOS在337至次年17 d,LOS在224—256 d。(2)19 a间植被物候年际变化总体特征为SOS显著提前(R²=0.51,P=0.001<0.05),平均提前1.14 d·(10 a)^?1;EOS推迟(R²=0.01,P=0.756>0.05),平均推迟0.07 d·(10 a)^?1;LOS显著延长(R²=0.47,P=0.001<0.05),平均延长1.07 d·(10 a)^?1。(3)不同植被类型的物候期及其变化趋势不同,研究区森林植被生长期最长,草地次之,耕地最短;19 a间SOS、EOS、LOS变化最大的分别是常绿阔叶林(?1.68 d·(10 a)^?1)、耕地(1.25 d·(10 a)^?1)、木本热带稀树草原(1.28 d·(10 a)^?1)。(4)水热组合对植被生长影响显著,河谷、坝子、东部低海拔地区的植被SOS、EOS分别主要受2月降水(负相关)和4月气温(正相关)、9月降水和气温(正相关)影响,山地地区植被SOS、EOS分别主要受6月降水(正相关)和5月气温(正相关)、5月降水(正相关)和4月气温(正相关)影响。     

Songbird Use of Gallery Woodlands in Recently Cleared and Older Settled Landscapes of the Selva Lacandona, Chiapas, Mexico

Many regions of Central America have undergone wide-scale habitat change as land has been converted for cultivation or grazing. Clearing for agriculture often leaves a variety of regenerating and remnant patches of wooded vegetation. Of particular importance is arroyo vegetation, or strips of trees or tall shrubs growing along streams. Although it is widely acknowledged that tropical arroyo vegetation supports high densities of birds, as avian habitat it remains poorly studied. We used point counts to study populations of migrant and resident songbirds in the arroyo vegetation of settled areas of the Selva Lacandona adjacent to the Montes Azules Biosphere Reserve of southeastern México. Two study areas were established on lands that had been cleared and settled 20–35 and 10 years previously. Our objectives were to assess the value of arroyo vegetation to the conservation of avian species diversity and abundance in agricultural landscapes and to compare the composition and abundance of songbirds in cleared areas settled at different times over a 35-year period. Arroyo vegetation had a wide diversity of songbird species that, in overall terms, differed little between those landscapes cleared recently and those cleared up to 35 years previously. In both areas we found a high abundance of habitat generalists and a smaller number of forest-dependent species, particularly migrants. Loss of forest specialists occurs rapidly, with little further loss as the arroyos become increasingly isolated. Our data also suggest that birds do not crowd into limited habitat as the surrounding vegetation is eliminated, implying that the overall carrying capacity of the agricultural landscape is greatly enhanced as larger areas of arroyo vegetation are protected. Protection of arroyo vegetation will increase the diversity of birds living in agricultural areas and can be achieved simply by expanding upon land-use practices currently in use.     

Effects of drainage water on plant diversity and distribution of agricultural drainage ditch beds in an arid irrigated area of Northwestern China

Agricultural drainage ditches are essential to sustaining food production in arid irrigation regions, with various sizes and drainage characteristics as important buffer ecotones in agricultural areas. Bed vegetation and water properties were investigated in 39 agricultural drainage ditches in the Lingwu District of Ningxia Yellow River Irrigation Area in Northwestern China. The results showed that water depth, width, and velocity generally increased with larger ditch size. Water salinity was higher in drainage ditches (>1?g/L) than in croplands, canals, and the Yellow River. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus were at high levels: ～1.6 and ～0.1?mg/L, respectively. Forty plant species belonging to 19 families and 31 genera were identified, with higher plant richness and diversity found in smaller sized drainage ditches. Macrophytes dominated the bed vegetation with a mean vegetative coverage of >30% in all-sized ditches, and Phragmites australis occurred with the most frequency. Water depth and salinity were considered as the primary factors affecting the distribution of vegetation in drainage ditch beds. The study suggests that practical conservation of smaller sized drainage ditches is conducive to increasing the plant diversity of agricultural landscapes.     

Heavy metals distribution and risk assessment in soils affected by tannery effluents

Effluents collected from tanneries in Sialkot showed considerably higher levels of heavy metals. Sodium (12 660.91 mg/L) among macronutrients and Cr (592.20 mg/L) among heavy metals were found in the highest concentrations. Effluent parameters, i.e. biological oxygen demand (BOD; 12.40), chemical oxygen demand (COD; 16.53), Cd (5.90), Cr (592.20) and Fe (18.59) were the respective times higher than Pakistan National Environmental Quality Standards and their continuous unchecked discharge into agricultural soils poses a potential risk. Mean concentrations (mg/L) of Cr (592.20), Ni (2.66), Mn (1.16), Fe (37.17), Zn (0.90), Cd (0.59) and Pb (1.18) in this study exceeded levels recorded to date from different tanning hubs in Pakistan. Factor analysis/principal components analysis (FA/PCA) for the effluent parameters resulted in six varimax factors, i.e. VF1 (salinity, electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids, chloride, phosphate, BOD and COD; including characteristic tannery effluent features), VF2 (pH, Cr and alkalinity; tanning operations), VF3 (Cd and Pb; dyeing processes), VF4 (Mn and Fe; finishing operations), VF5 (Ni; retaining processes) and VF6 (hardness, Ca and Cu; bating processes). Cluster analysis performed on metal data resulted in three clusters confirming metal–metal relations obtained either from FA/PCA or a correlation matrix. The results of this study are useful for heavy metal source apportionment, assessment of risk to peripheral soils and the future management of environments around tanneries.     

江苏省植被NPP时空特征及气候因素的影响

利用2000—2006年的EOS/MODIS卫星遥感资料,对江苏省植被净初级生产力（NPP）时空特征及气候变化对其影响进行分析。在ArcGIS软件中,建立线性回归方程获得NPP的变化斜率,分析7 a间各像元NPP的空间变化趋势。计算各像元的NPP数值与气候要素的线性相关系数,为定量阐述气候变化对植被生长的影响提供依据。结果表明,江苏省植被NPP 7 a平均值为506.6 g.m-2.a-1（以C计）,比全国同期NPP数值高出约40%。NPP表现出明显的年际变化,2004年植被年均NPP最大为530.6 g.m-2.a-1（以C计）,2000年最小,为481.1 g.m-2.a-1（以C计）。空间分布上NPP表现为东南高于西北,沿海高于内陆。2000—2006年江苏省有76%的区域植被NPP表现为显著增加,仅江苏南部少数区域表现出减少的趋势。除苏南少数区域外,气候因素控制着NPP的时空变化规律。其中气温的升高和太阳辐射的增加促进NPP提高,而降水量的增加引起NPP的降低。     

Vegetation development in coastal foredunes in relation to methods of establishing marram grass ( Ammophila arenaria )

In coastal foredunes marram grass (Ammophila arenaria) is used to stabilize windblown sand. The development of traditionally plantedAmmophila into a more natural foredune vegetation may take 5–10 yr. For economic reasons, traditional planting may be replaced by alternative techniques such as planting seeds or disk-harrowing rhizome fragments. In this paper, we compare the initial vegetation development of traditionally planted stands with stands established from seeds and from rhizomes. The experiments were conducted on an artificial foredune originating from dredged sea sand. The total experimental area covered more than 100 ha and the vegetation development was studied for 6 yr. The data were analysed bya priori grouping of plant species according to their ecology, as well as by Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Redundancy Analysis (RA) of the percentage ground cover per plant species. Comparing ecological groups of plants showed that all planting methods delivered equal numbers of plant species that are indicative for coastal dunes. PCA and RA showed that methods based on the use of rhizome material resulted in a higher percentage cover of clonal perennials (Calammophila baltica, Festuca rubra ssp.arenaria, Carex arenaria andCirsium arvense) than the traditionally planted stands and the stands obtained from seeds. The latter two were characterized by the dominance of annuals, bi-annuals and (mostly nonrhizomatous) perennials. Initially, the rates of succession were highest in the stands obtained from rhizomes. However, after 3–6 yr there were no differences between the various stands. During the first four years, the percentage cover by rhizomatous foredune plants developed faster than that of annuals, bi-annuals and perennials. After 6 yr, the latter contributed almost as much to the percentage cover as the clonal species.     

Historical evidence of climatic variability and changes,and its effect on high-altitude regions: insights from Rara and Langtang,Nepal

ABSTRACT

Climatic variability and its effects have been experienced in the high-altitude regions of Nepal for some considerable time. Most of the studies on local people’s perception available so far in Nepal on climate include with respect to weather changes, and almost none have been verified with satellite imagery. This study thus attempts to combine meteorological and satellite imagery for comparing local people’s perception so that a more robust validation can be established. Both qualitative (transect walk, key informant interview, focus group discussion and institutional visit) and quantitative (meteorological and satellite image) data and techniques were employed. Local people from Rara and Langtang in Nepal shared their observations and perceptions on the changing climate for the last three decades and the effects on them and their local microclimate. Apart from temperature, rainfall and snowfall anomalies, locals observed changes in the water sources and increasing drought along with alteration in the phenology of tree and agricultural crops as well as vegetation range migration. Satellite image analysis also confirms a change in snow cover as notified by the local people. This study shows that local people’s knowledge could be considered as a complement to the observed scientific evidences of climate change science and their perceptions can be used reliably where scientific data are lacking. Finally, perceived climatic risks, current gaps and future opportunities are discussed and some recommendations are suggested.     

Expanding the Global Network of Protected Areas to Save the Imperiled Mediterranean Biome

Abstract:  Global goals established by the Convention on Biological Diversity stipulate that 10% of the world's ecological regions must be effectively conserved by 2010. To meet that goal for the mediterranean biome, at least 5% more land must be formally protected over the next few years. Although global assessments identify the mediterranean biome as a priority, without biologically meaningful analysis units, finer-resolution data, and corresponding prioritization analysis, future conservation investments could lead to more area being protected without increasing the representation of unique mediterranean ecosystems. We used standardized analysis units and six potential natural vegetation types stratified by 3 elevation zones in a global gap analysis that systematically explored conservation priorities across the mediterranean biome. The highest levels of protection were in Australia, South Africa, and California-Baja California (from 9–11%), and the lowest levels of protection were in Chile and the mediterranean Basin (<1%). Protection was skewed to montane elevations in three out of five regions. Across the biome only one of the six vegetation types—mediterranean shrubland—exceeded 10% protection. The remaining vegetation types—grassland, scrub, succulent dominated, woodland, and forest—each had <3% protection. To guard against biases in future protection efforts and ensure the protection of species characteristic of the mediterranean biome, we identified biodiversity assemblages with <10% protection and subject to >30% conversion and suggest that these assemblages be elevated to high-priority status in future conservation efforts.     

Balancing Forest‐Regeneration Probabilities and Maintenance Costs in Dry Grasslands of High Conservation Priority

Abstract: Abandonment of agricultural land has resulted in forest regeneration in species‐rich dry grasslands across European mountain regions and threatens conservation efforts in this vegetation type. To support national conservation strategies, we used a site‐selection algorithm (MARXAN) to find optimum sets of floristic regions (reporting units) that contain grasslands of high conservation priority. We sought optimum sets that would accommodate 136 important dry‐grassland species and that would minimize forest regeneration and costs of management needed to forestall predicted forest regeneration. We did not consider other conservation elements of dry grasslands, such as animal species richness, cultural heritage, and changes due to climate change. Optimal sets that included 95–100% of the dry grassland species encompassed an average of 56–59 floristic regions (standard deviation, SD 5). This is about 15% of approximately 400 floristic regions that contain dry‐grassland sites and translates to 4800–5300 ha of dry grassland out of a total of approximately 23,000 ha for the entire study area. Projected costs to manage the grasslands in these optimum sets ranged from CHF (Swiss francs) 5.2 to 6.0 million/year. This is only 15–20% of the current total estimated cost of approximately CHF30–45 million/year required if all dry grasslands were to be protected. The grasslands of the optimal sets may be viewed as core sites in a national conservation strategy.     

Prairie Landscape Change and Flooding in the Mississippi River Valley

Extensive landscape alteration of prairie in the U.S. from agricultural expansion has reduced waterfowl populations and increased precipitation runoff into regional river basins. Satellite imagery shows that prairie landscapes have been less altered in Canada than in the U.S. Long-term, broad-scale precipitation data indicate that in both countries precipitation has varied widely but has not increased over time. Nevertheless, flow rates of unregulated U.S. rivers have increased, but there have been no detectable changes in flow rates of Canadian rivers. Neither of two competing hypotheses advanced to explain increasing flood magnitudes—climate change and channel confinement—can account for these results. Thus, the increased magnitudes of floods in the Mississippi River Valley over the last several decades may be at least partially related to extensive changes in agricultural land use resulting in reduction of natural upland vegetation and wetland drainage in the upper reaches of this watershed.     

Effects of experimental protocol on global vegetation model accuracy: A comparison of simulated and observed vegetation patterns for Asia

Prognostic vegetation models have been widely used to study the interactions between environmental change and biological systems. This study examines the sensitivity of vegetation model simulations to: (i) the selection of input climatologies representing different time periods and their associated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, (ii) the choice of observed vegetation data for evaluating the model results, and (iii) the methods used to compare simulated and observed vegetation. We use vegetation simulated for Asia by the equilibrium vegetation model BIOME4 as a typical example of vegetation model output. BIOME4 was run using 19 different climatologies and their associated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. The Kappa statistic, Fuzzy Kappa statistic and a newly developed map-comparison method, the Nomad index, were used to quantify the agreement between the biomes simulated under each scenario and the observed vegetation from three different global land- and tree-cover data sets: the global Potential Natural Vegetation data set (PNV), the Global Land Cover Characteristics data set (GLCC), and the Global Land Cover Facility data set (GLCF). The results indicate that the 30-year mean climatology (and its associated atmospheric CO₂ concentration) for the time period immediately preceding the collection date of the observed vegetation data produce the most accurate vegetation simulations when compared with all three observed vegetation data sets. The study also indicates that the BIOME4-simulated vegetation for Asia more closely matches the PNV data than the other two observed vegetation data sets. Given the same observed data, the accuracy assessments of the BIOME4 simulations made using the Kappa, Fuzzy Kappa and Nomad index map-comparison methods agree well when the compared vegetation types consist of a large number of spatially continuous grid cells. The results of this analysis can assist model users in designing experimental protocols for simulating vegetation.     

Using forest inventory data to assess fisher resting habitat suitability in California.

The fisher (Martes pennanti) is a forest-dwelling carnivore whose current distribution and association with late-seral forest conditions make it vulnerable to stand-altering human activities or natural disturbances. Fishers select a variety of structures for daily resting bouts. These habitat elements, together with foraging and reproductive (denning) habitat, constitute the habitat requirements of fishers. We develop a model capable of predicting the suitability of fisher resting habitat using standard forest vegetation inventory data. The inventory data were derived from Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA), a nationwide probability-based sample used to estimate forest characteristics. We developed the model by comparing vegetation and topographic data at 75 randomly selected fisher resting structures in the southern Sierra Nevada with 232 forest inventory plots. We collected vegetation data at fisher resting locations using the FIA vegetation sampling protocol and centering the 1-ha FIA plot on the resting structure. To distinguish used and available inventory plots, we used nonparametric logistic regression to evaluate a set of a priori biological models. The top model represented a dominant portion of the Akaike weights (0.87), explained 31.5% of the deviance, and included the following variables: average canopy closure, basal area of trees <51 cm diameter breast height (dbh), average hardwood dbh, maximum tree dbh, percentage slope, and the dbh of the largest conifer snag. Our use of routinely collected forest inventory data allows the assessment and monitoring of change in fisher resting habitat suitability over large regions with no additional sampling effort. Although models were constrained to include only variables available from the list of those measured using the FIA protocol, we did not find this to be a shortcoming. The model makes it possible to compare average resting habitat suitability values before and after forest management treatments, among administrative units, across regions and over time. Considering hundreds of plot estimates as a sample of habitat conditions over large spatial scales can bring a broad perspective, at high resolution, and efficiency to the assessment and monitoring of wildlife habitat.