Greenhouse gas Emissions projections and mitigation options for the Czech Republic, 1990–2010

The models used to assess greenhouse gas mitigation options for the Czech Republic are discussed and compared with respect to their capabilities and ease of use. The input data and preliminary results are described. According to the projections, Czech CO₂ emissions will not exceed their 1990 level until 2010. Assessment of several mitigation options shows that a 6% reduction in CO₂ emissions can be achieved using cost-effective technologies. Key areas for mitigation measures are fuel switching from brown coal to natural gas through replacement of boilers, efficiency improvements in household heating, and use of compact fluorescent lamps.     

Estimating the potential of greenhouse gas mitigation in Kazakhstan

As part of the studies related to the obligations of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Republic of Kazakhstan started activities to inventory greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and assess of GHG mitigation options. The objective of this paper is to present an estimate of the possibility of mitigating GHG emissions and determine the mitigation priorities. It presents a compilation of the possible options and their assessment in terms of major criteria and implementation feasibility. Taking into account the structure of GHG emissions in Kazakhstan in 1990, preliminary estimates of the potential for mitigation are presented for eight options for the energy sector and agriculture and forestry sector. The reference scenario prepared by expert assessments assumes a reduction of CO₂ emissions in 1996–1998 by about 26% from the 1990 level due to general economic decline, but then emissions increase. It is estimated that the total potential for the mitigation of CO₂ emissions for the year 2000 is 3% of the CO₂ emissions in the reference scenario. The annual reduction in methane emissions due to the estimated options can amount to 5%–6% of the 1990 level.

     

减污降碳协同增效的关键路径与政策研究

全面推动实现减污降碳协同增效是新发展阶段我国兑现碳达峰碳中和庄严承诺、深入打好污染防治攻坚战、建设美丽中国的必然要求。环境污染物与二氧化碳排放的高度同源性是实现减污降碳协同增效的理论基础。本文首先就目标指标、管控区域、控制对象、措施任务、政策工具五个方面的协同性系统讨论了减污降碳协同增效的基本内涵。其次，着眼于当前大气环境治理与碳减排在中国的重要性，本文在国家层面讨论了二者的中长期协同控制路线图，阐述了重点协同区域的识别方法和重点部门的协同治理思路，系统提出了大气环境治理与碳减排的协同路径。再次，本文还就“无废城市”建设和生态保护这两个领域与碳减排的协同治理思路展开分析讨论。最后，针对减污降碳协同治理对政策体系的需求，提出了统筹优化减污降碳协同目标、建立协同法规标准、建立减污降碳协同管理制度三个方面的建议。本研究将有助于厘清各方对减污降碳协同增效的认识，对各级政府后续推进减污降碳协同治理工作提供理论和科学基础。     

Effective EU and Member State policies for stimulating CCS

Although CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) is widely recognised as an option to mitigate climate change, consistent and effective EU policies to advance CCS are still absent. This paper discusses policy instruments for advancing large-scale deployment of CCS in the European Union, and evaluates them in a multi-criteria analysis. The EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) is a cost-effective instrument for limiting greenhouse gas emissions, but it is questionable whether its currently limited time horizon and short-trading periods will lead to substantial CCS diffusion. Complementary policies at the EU and the Member State level may repair this and provide sufficient incentives for CCS. Potential policies include financial instruments such as investment subsidies, a feed-in scheme, or a CO₂ price guarantee, as well as a CCS mandate or a low-carbon portfolio. These policy options differ with respect to their environmental effectiveness, possible interaction with the EU-ETS, costs and financial risk involved, and their competition with other mitigation options. Interactions between Member State policies and the EU-ETS are smaller in scope than those of EU-wide policies, but they are more likely to lead to displacement of financial resources from other low-carbon technologies. In addition, national policies may pose a significant part of the financial risk of CCS operations with Member States, reducing the operator's incentive to innovate. Overall, structural policies at the EU level, such as a mandate or a low-carbon portfolio standard would be more conducive for realising large-scale deployment of CCS across the EU as well as more acceptable to environmental organisations.     

对外经济贸易对中国碳排放的影响:基于省级面板数据的实证分析

改革开放以来,我国的对外经济贸易有了显著的发展,外商直接投资和进出口的快速增长有效地推动了经济的快速发展。然而在经济发展的同时,我国碳排放水平日益提高,已成为全球最大排放国。为了更好地管控碳排放,研究外商直接投资(FDI),对外贸易与碳排放的关系具有重要意义。本文通过对我国1995—2011年29个省(市、自治区)的FDI、对外贸易对碳排放的动态效应分析发现,FDI与进出口水平的提升均有利于降低我国碳排放的水平,“污染天堂”假说在我国并未得到证实。同时,本文验证了“环境库兹涅茨曲线”在我国的存在,证实了我国的碳排放水平与人均GDP存在倒“U”型关系。     

Greenhouse gas Emissions projections and mitigation options for the Czech Republic, 1990–2010

The models used to assess greenhouse gas mitigation options for the Czech Republic are discussed and compared with respect to their capabilities and ease of use. The input data and preliminary results are described. According to the projections, Czech CO₂ emissions will not exceed their 1990 level until 2010. Assessment of several mitigation options shows that a 6% reduction in CO₂ emissions can be achieved using cost-effective technologies. Key areas for mitigation measures are fuel switching from brown coal to natural gas through replacement of boilers, efficiency improvements in household heating, and use of compact fluorescent lamps.

     

The unsustainability of exurban development in London and New York: calculating transport CO2 emissions

London and New York have often been hailed for their sustainable planning practices. However, when one focuses on the entire city region, there is ever-increasing car-dependent development. This paper focuses on the exurban region of the two cities investigating transport-created CO₂ emissions. The research is based on the analysis of data of the National Travel Surveys of Great Britain and the USA through a quantification of personal travel and a top-down estimation of CO₂ emissions. It is the exurban region that accounts for the vast majority of CO₂ emissions: 77% for London and 87% for New York. In the wider region for both cities there is a policy vacuum and dearth of regional planning mechanisms to deliver policies to reduce CO₂ emissions. The paper argues that transport needs to be planned at the city-regional scale.     

The Climate Value of Cycling

The reduction of CO₂ emissions constitutes one of the largest challenges of the current era. Sustainable transportation, and especially cycling, can contribute to the mitigation of CO₂ emissions since cycling possesses an intrinsic zero‐emission value. Few studies have been conducted that appraise the CO₂ reduction potential of cycling. Opportunity costs enable the estimation of avoided CO₂ emissions resulting from bicycle trips. The methodology developed in this research allows the attribution of a climate value to cycling by substituting bicycle trips with their most likely alternative transportation modes and calculating the resulting additional CO₂ emissions. The methodology uses data on the current modal shares of cycling mobility, the competition of cycling with other transportation modes, and CO₂ emission factors to calculate the climate value of cycling. When it is assumed that the avoided CO₂ emissions of cycling mobility could be traded on financial carbon markets, the climate value of cycling represents a monetary value. Application of the methodology to the case of Bogotá, Colombia — a city with a current bicycle modal share of 3.3% on a total of 10 million daily trips — results in a climate value of cycling of 55,115 tons of CO₂ per year, corresponding to an economic value of between 1 and 7 million US dollars when traded on the carbon market.     

Environmental policy stringency,renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions: Panel cointegration analysis for BRIICTS countries

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between environmental policy stringency and CO₂ emissions in BRIICTS (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, Turkey and South Africa) for the period 1993–2014 after controlling for renewable energy, fossil energy, oil prices and income. We believe that this is the first attempt to use the recently OECD-developed environmental policy stringency index to test the effectiveness of environmental stringency policy in reducing CO₂ emission in these countries. Applying the Panel Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributive Lag (PMG-ARDL) estimator, we found an inverted U–shaped relationship between environmental policy stringency and CO₂ emissions. This suggests that initially strict stringent environmental policy does not lead to improvements in the environment but after a certain level or a threshold point, environmental stringency policy leads to improvement in environmental quality. Renewable energy consumption was negatively related to CO₂ emissions while fossil energy consumption and real oil prices and income were positively and significantly related to CO₂. Our findings suggest that strengthening the stringency of environmental policies and promoting renewable energy are effective ways of preventing environmental degradation in BRIICTS countries.     

Short-Term Opportunities for Decreasing CO2 Emissions from the Steel Industry

There is a strong political will to decrease CO₂ emissions. Although the steel industry only accounts for some 5% of worldwide CO₂ emissions (which totalled 1,200 million tonnes per annum in the late 1990s), it will be strongly affected by this. The EU, for example, is putting up strong economic incentives for reductions. This is taking place at a time when demand for steel products is greater than ever. To radically change existing processes and production routes to decrease the CO₂ emissions would be extremely expensive, even if it were possible. Nevertheless, many of the solutions which have been discussed seem to go in this direction. The other alternative discussed seems to be the creation of process solutions and alterations that lead to a focusing of CO₂ streams, i.e., much higher CO₂ concentrations in flue gases than today, for entrapment of the CO₂ so that it is not discharged into the atmosphere. These solutions are feasible, but expensive.

However, there exists today a number of solutions and technologies which, if fully implemented, could substantially decrease CO₂ emissions without seriously altering current methods of operation; they are short-term viable solutions. The present paper reviews and discusses such technologies, throughout the steel production paths. If these solutions are fully implemented, the combined impact on CO₂ emissions from the steel industry worldwide is estimated to be a reduction of 100–150 million tonnes of CO₂ per annum, i.e., current emissions can be reduced by some 8–10% within a relatively short time span.     

A model for the CO2 capture potential

Global warming is a result of increasing anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, and the consequences will be dramatic climate changes if no action is taken. One of the main global challenges in the years to come is therefore to reduce the CO₂ emissions.Increasing energy efficiency and a transition to renewable energy as the major energy source can reduce CO₂ emissions, but such measures can only lead to significant emission reductions in the long-term. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a promising technological option for reducing CO₂ emissions on a shorter time scale.A model to calculate the CO₂ capture potential has been developed, and it is estimated that 25 billion tonnes CO₂ can be captured and stored within the EU by 2050. Globally, 236 billion tonnes CO₂ can be captured and stored by 2050. The calculations indicate that wide implementation of CCS can reduce CO₂ emissions by 54% in the EU and 33% globally in 2050 compared to emission levels today.Such a reduction in emissions is not sufficient to stabilize the climate. Therefore, the strategy to achieve the necessary CO₂ emissions reductions must be a combination of (1) increasing energy efficiency, (2) switching from fossil fuel to renewable energy sources, and (3) wide implementation of CCS.     

Taking Venezuela back to the sustainability path: The role of financial development and economic integration in low‐carbon transition

Environmental protection and sustainable development are connected. Such connection is considered highly important for Venezuela, where fossil fuel abundance has created economic and environmental challenges. Surprisingly, only limited attention has been directed to identifying policy options for charting the path to sustainable development in the economy. Contributing to filling this gap in the literature, this study examines whether financial development, de facto and de jure conditions in trade and financial integration can trigger long‐term economic shifts that will change the trajectory of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the economy using a novel estimation approach—dynamic simulations of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models. The empirical modelling framework incorporates the impact of population, economic growth, energy intensity and government consumption expenditure. ARDL‐bounds test provides evidence that the variables are cointegrated. Long‐run estimates from the dynamic ARDL analysis show that de facto and de jure conditions in trade and financial components of economic integration offer varied policy options for carbon mitigation in Venezuela. Population size, energy intensity, government consumption expenditure and de facto condition in financial integration have increasing impact on CO₂ emissions, exacerbating suitability challenges in the economy. On the other hand, positive shocks in financial development, de facto condition in trade integration and de jure condition in financial integration have a mitigation effect on CO₂ emissions. Overall, financial development, trade integration and the control of cross‐border financial flows are needed economic conditions that can accelerate a quick transition to a low‐carbon develpoment in Venezuela.     

基于混合生命周期评价模型的我国食物系统水资源消耗及二氧化碳排放核算

食物生产不仅依赖水资源,同时产生大量二氧化碳排放,这种资源环境影响存在于食物系统整个产业链。为促进食物系统节水降碳,本文构建了包含5大类共23种具体食物部门的混合生命周期评价模型,对各类食物系统的完全水资源消耗和二氧化碳排放进行了核算与比较。结果表明：①不同食物的水资源消耗和二氧化碳排放差异明显,动物性食物的平均水资源消耗和二氧化碳排放强度分别为植物性食物的1.9 ～ 15.0倍和1.9 ～ 2.7倍;②食物系统直接和间接水资源消耗占比较为接近,但二氧化碳排放主要源自上游产业链的间接排放,占比高达80.9%;③食物系统间接水资源消耗主要来自农业部门,而间接碳排放主要来自电力生产和供应业、基础化工原料制造业、非金属矿产品行业和交通运输业;④从营养元素供给看,动物性食物提供蛋白质和脂肪的资源环境影响高于植物性食物,蔬菜和主食分别在提供维生素C和碳水化合物上具有最小的环境成本。基于本文结果,食物系统节水应主要提高生产环节用水效率,而降碳则主要依靠上游产业减排,特别是发电和化肥生产等行业的协同节水减碳潜力。同时,本文结果也可为未来基于环境影响制定膳食指南提供数据支撑。     

基于产业链分析的长三角地区CO2与大气污染物排放研究

长三角地区作为我国大气污染较为严重区域之一,如何在保持经济增长的同时减少CO₂与大气污染物的排放已成为一个重要挑战。本研究基于2007年与2012年长三角区域间投入产出表,定量分析了长三角地区省市间贸易引致的二氧化碳和大气污染物排放转移特征和变化趋势。同时,运用产业关联系数法,从前向关联与后向关联双重视角分析了长三角地区减缓CO₂和大气污染物排放的关键行业。研究结果表明,长三角的SO₂、PM_2.5排放总量表现为消费端大于生产端,CO₂、NO_x排放总量表现为生产端大于消费端。安徽省总体呈现为长三角地区贸易的SO₂、NO_x与PM_2.5排放净调出地,而上海与浙江表现为多数污染物排放净调入地。CO₂与大气污染物协同前向减排的关键行业为江苏省、浙江省和安徽省的电力、热力的生产和供应业,安徽省的煤炭开采和洗选业等,可以通过生产端技术革新和能源结构优化来促进减排;CO₂与大气污染物后向协同减排的关键行业为江苏省、浙江省和安徽省的建筑业等,对于这些行业,调整消费结构是有效的减排措施。为更好地制定长三角地区减排与污染防治政策,应当综合考虑行业减排、协同减排等,以确保经济持续增长的同时达到减排目标。     

Panel heterogeneous distribution analysis of trade and modernized agriculture on CO2 emissions: The role of renewable and fossil fuel energy consumption

In line with the global target of reducing climate change and its impact, this study explored the causal relationship between CO₂ emissions, modernized agriculture, trade openness, aggregate and disaggregate energy consumption in 14 African countries from 1990–2013 using a panel quantile estimation procedure. The empirical results showed that value addition to agricultural commodities declines CO₂ emissions in countries with high pollution levels. The study revealed a positive nexus between CO₂ emissions and energy consumption homogeneously distributed across quantiles. Trade openness was found to lower CO₂ emissions in countries with lower and higher levels of environmental pollution. While fossil fuel energy consumption was found to exacerbate CO₂ emissions, renewable energy consumption confirmed its mitigating effect on environmental pollution. The institution of climate‐smart agricultural options will sustainably increase productivity and income while adapting to climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Diversification of energy technologies with clean and modern energy sources like renewables avoid the over‐dependence on fossil fuels for agricultural purposes. Trade policies can stimulate flows of technology and investment opportunities for specialization in production and economies of scale. Hence, the consideration of policies that boost agricultural sector productivity and create an efficient market for international trade in Africa will help in improving livelihoods.     

A statistical analysis of the carbon dioxide capture process

Post combustion carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture is one of the most commonly adopted technologies for reducing industrial CO₂ emissions, which is now an important goal given the widespread concern over global warming. Research on amine-based CO₂ capture has mainly focused on improving effectiveness and efficiency of the CO₂ capture process. Our research work focuses on studying the relationships among the significant parameters influencing CO₂ production because an enhanced understanding of the intricate relationships among the parameters involved in the process is critical for improving efficiency of the CO₂ capture process. This paper presents a statistical study that explores the relationships among parameters involved in the amine-based post combustion CO₂ capture process at the International Centre for CO₂ Capture (ITC) located in Regina, Saskatchewan of Canada. A multiple regression technique has been applied for analysis of data collected at the CO₂ capture pilot plant at ITC. The parameters have been carefully selected to avoid issues of multicollinearity, and four mathematical models among the key parameters identified have been developed. The models have been tested, and accuracy of the models is found to be satisfactory. The models developed in this study describe part of the CO₂ capture process and can help to predict performance of the CO₂ capture process at ITC under different conditions. Some results from a preliminary validation process will also be presented.     

Global energy and emissions scenarios for effective climate change mitigation—Deterministic and stochastic scenarios with the TIAM model

The achievement possibilities of the EU 2 °C climate target have been assessed with the ETSAP TIAM global energy systems model. Cost-effective global and regional mitigation scenarios of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and F-gases were calculated with alternative assumptions on emissions trading. In the mitigation scenarios, an 85% reduction in CO₂ emissions is needed from the baseline, and very significant changes in the energy system towards emission-free sources take place during this century. The largest new technology groups are carbon-capture and storage (CCS), nuclear power, wind power, advanced bioenergy technologies and energy efficiency measures. CCS technologies contributed a 5.5-Pg CO₂ annual emission reduction by 2050 and 12 Pg CO₂ reduction by 2100. Also large-scale forestation measures were found cost-efficient. Forestation measures reached their maximum impact of 7.7 Pg CO₂ annual emission reduction in 2080. The effects of uncertainties in the climate sensitivity have been analysed with stochastic scenarios.     

Energy technology modelling of major carbon abatement options

The International Energy Agency Energy Technologies Perspectives (ETP) model is used to assess the prospects for carbon abatement options, including carbon capture and storage, up to 2050. Three main scenarios are considered: a Baseline scenario with current energy policies, an accelerated technology scenario that seeks to return energy-related CO₂ emissions in 2050 to their level in 2005, and a scenario for which CO₂ emissions are reduced at 50% of current levels by 2050. To reach these emissions reduction targets, annual global CO₂ emissions in the year 2050 must be reduced by 35 GtCO₂ to 48 GtCO₂ compared to the Baseline scenario. The analysis presented here shows that a broad portfolio of emissions reducing technologies will need to be deployed across all economic sectors of the global economy to reach these targets. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is one of the suite of technologies employed across the globe to reach these targets. CCS adoption occurs in many aspects of the global economy and accounts for 14–19% of all emissions reductions. The total amount of CO₂ captured and stored in deep geologic reservoirs up to 2050 ranges between 5.1 GtCO₂ and 10.4 GtCO₂ in these two climate policy scenarios. Up to 2030, more than half of total CCS deployment takes place in OECD countries. After 2035, emerging economies account for more than half of total CCS use. This paper also demonstrates that as the climate policy becomes more stringent it will be necessary for CCS to deploy more extensively in many different industries outside of the electric power sector which often receives the most attention in discussions of CCS's role in addressing climate change.