交通领域减污降碳协同控制研究回顾及展望

交通运输行业是二氧化碳和空气污染物排放的主要贡献者之一,开展交通领域的减污降碳协同控制政策是实现“双碳”目标和空气污染防治的迫切需要。本研究追溯了交通领域减污降碳协同控制的起源及发展,回顾了交通领域协同减污降碳的主要路径,具体包括交通基础信息协同、交通排放清单编制协同、交通减排目标设定与减排情景分析协同、交通减排技术及措施工具箱协同,以及交通减排保障措施协同。然后,从研究范围、研究方法、协同度评价体系构建、污染相关健康协同效应、研究区域等方面对交通领域减污降碳协同控制的研究实践及特点进行了分析,并相应提出了对未来研究的展望。     

减污降碳协同增效：政策困境与完善路径

我国面临实现生态环境根本好转与碳达峰碳中和两大战略任务,“协同治理”政策体系需在现有的生态环境管理制度体系上嵌入“降碳”政策目标,“降碳”和“减污”涉及的规范、资源和工具等制度性要素将在“协同增效”目标下重新协调整合。“减污降碳”在政策理念、政策工具、政策主体等层面均对传统污染防治政策系统存在路径依赖,可能导致决策科学性不足、规制失灵、政策可持续性较差、政策僵化、市场主体投入不足等问题。故此,需加快完善“协同增效”相关法律法规、强化多元政策工具统筹协同、优化差异性政策的管理协同。     

城市减污降碳协同增效内涵、潜力与路径

在碳达峰碳中和气候承诺及深入打好污染防治攻坚战的战略目标下,现阶段我国处于社会经济全面绿色低碳转型的关键时期,时间紧任务重。城市作为政策执行的主体,必须全面协同推进减污降碳工作。大气污染物与温室气体同根同源同过程的性质决定了减污降碳协同治理的可行性,协同减污和降碳的治理政策不仅能够提高政策效率,还具备降低成本、强化公共健康等多重效益。同发达国家相比,我国仍保持以煤炭为主的一次能源消费结构,油、气消费与清洁能源比重偏低。要实现污染物与温室气体的协同防控,就必须从源头上根本改变我国以燃煤为主的能源结构,进一步推动产业结构优化升级,加快形成绿色生活方式。本文通过阐述城市减污降碳协同增效的内涵、潜力及路径,帮助理解减污与降碳之间的协同机制,为城市协同优化治理污染物与温室气体,全面提高环境治理综合效能提供参考。     

协同实现降碳减污的管理需求与关键问题

建设人与自然和谐共生的中国式现代化,离不开降碳、减污、扩绿、增长的协同推进。一方面,推动减污降碳协同增效是我国发展阶段使然。与发达国家先解决了国内污染问题再应对气候变化的发展过程不同,我国正处于减污与降碳要求叠加、负重前行的关键期。在生态环境保护结构性、根源性、趋势性压力总体上尚未根本扭转的新发展阶段,协同推进降碳减污是我国经济社会发展全面绿色转型的必然选择。另一方面,同根、同源、同过程的特征使得实现降碳减污协同增效具有可行性。化石能源的燃烧和加工利用同时产生 CO₂ 等温室气体和SO₂、 NOx、颗粒物（PM）、挥发性有机化合物（VOCs）等大气污染物,推动降碳与减污的协同治理能够降低管理成本,获得环境质量改善、气候变化风险降低、低碳经济竞争力提升等多重政策效益,是提高生态环境治理现代化水平的重要途径。     

中国城市CO2排放和空气质量协同变化特征及驱动因素研究

城市既是受到气候变化和空气污染影响的重点区域,又是落实应对气候变化和大气污染防控政策的关键主体。在城市尺度上研究减污降碳政策的协同效应及其时空异质化的影响规律,将为因地制宜地制定减污降碳政策提供依据。本研究分析了2012—2019年我国284个地级市减污降碳协同效应指数的动态时空变化特征和规律;而后通过构建STIRPAT模型和地理时空加权回归（GTWR）模型,探讨了低碳政策、大气污染物防控政策、产业结构等驱动因素对减污降碳协同效应的时空异质化影响机制。结果表明：全国主要地级市耦合协调度指数平均值由2012年的0.79增加至2019年的0.85,环京津冀区域、汾渭平原等京津冀大气污染传输通道城市区域耦合协调度指数显著提高。以低碳试点城市为代表的区域,其降碳政策、减污政策、产业结构、人口规模、城镇化水平以及技术投入对减污降碳协同效应的影响存在显著的空间异质性。华北平原城市群作为大气污染防治的重点区域,主要通过减污政策提高协同效益;低碳政策主要在京津冀城市群、长江中游以及东南沿海地区城市发挥作用;中西部城市则主要通过产业结构调整、加大技术投入实现协同效益。最后,基于此提出促进城市减污降碳协同效益的对策建议。     

我国大气环境管理历程与展望

随着大气环境问题从煤烟型向以PM_2.5和O₃为特征的区域复合型污染演变，我国大气污染控制模式从以污染物排放浓度控制为核心、以污染物排放总量控制为核心逐渐走向以大气环境质量改善为核心。特别是近几年，全国各地在空气质量管理、科学精准治污等领域开展一系列积极的探索与实践，取得了显著成效。本文系统回顾了近50年来我国不同阶段大气环境管理工作的特点，重点梳理了2013年《大气污染防治行动计划》实施以来，空气质量管理经验与成绩，结合减污降碳总体部署对我国2035年“美丽中国建设目标基本实现”时的空气质量进行了展望，从PM_2.5与O₃协同控制的角度出发，提出了“十四五”期间我国大气环境管理的总体思路。     

碳达峰政策体系建设的思路与重点任务

我国2030年前实现碳达峰面临巨大压力,需要系统研究构建碳达峰政策体系,为碳达峰提供政策动力。本文分析了我国碳达峰相关政策实施情况,探讨了碳达峰政策创新思路,提出了碳达峰政策体系建设的重点任务以及政策实施保障。以减污降碳为主线,推进低碳发展政策与生态环境保护政策的统筹融合,构建完善以碳排放总量控制为核心的,涵盖行业部门、重点区域地区、减排相关方的,多手段类型相结合的碳达峰政策体系,促进产业、能源、交通结构调整和低碳发展,有效推动重点行业和领域碳排放达峰路径与关键举措的顺利落地。从建立健全碳排放总量控制考评制度、加快构建排污许可证与碳排放管控协同制度、深化能源资源价格机制改革、全面推开碳排放权交易市场等方面提出重点政策建议。     

共享骑行减污降碳效益研究

共享骑行作为一种新兴的绿色出行方式，凭其便捷、经济、共享的特点，已发展成为一种重要的城市出行交通方式。共享骑行作为一种绿色交通出行方式，可替代能源消耗型交通出行方式，具有明显的减污降碳环境效益。然而，目前关于共享骑行环境效益的定量研究，主要集中在“降碳”方面；对于“减污”的研究较少，尚未见公开发布的核算方法学。本文对共享骑行的“降碳”效益方法学进行了梳理并定量核算了“降碳”效益；对于“减污”效益，采用“降碳”核算方法学的思路进行了定量核算的方法探索。在此基础上，结合某大型共享骑行公司的用户骑行数据，对共享骑行“减污降碳”的环境效益按照有地铁城市和无地铁城市进行了分别核算。结果表明：①共享骑行具有显著的“减污”和“降碳”协同环境效益；②共享骑行“减污降碳”环境效益在无地铁城市比有地铁城市更为突出；③共享电单车比共享人力单车具有更高的环境效益。最后，本文对所采用的核算方法的局限性进行了分析，并提出了共享骑行环境效益核算未来的研究探索方向，包括共享骑行激励政策的制定、不同尺度或区域共享骑行环境效益核算以及出行替代率的方法学研究等。     

“排污权”和“碳排放权”交易的减污降碳协同效应研究——基于污染治理和政策管理的双重视角

全面系统地评估排污权交易和碳排放权交易的减污降碳协同效应,对于进一步发挥应对气候变化和大气污染治理的协同效应、推进全国统一生态环境市场建设具有重要意义。本文基于污染治理和政策管理的双重视角,采用多时点双重差分和倾向得分匹配,分别检验排污权交易和碳排放权交易的减污和降碳效应;并在此基础上,研究三种政策情景下（排污权交易、碳排放权交易以及组合政策）的协同减排效应差异。研究表明,从污染治理视角,排污权交易和碳排放权交易均显著降低了二氧化硫和二氧化碳排放量,实现了减污降碳的协同效应;从政策协同管理视角,在减少二氧化硫污染方面,组合政策比各类政策的单独实施更为有效;在降低二氧化碳排放方面,碳排放权交易比排污权交易和组合政策更为有效。因此,在推进气候变化应对和大气污染治理机制融合的进程中,应有所侧重地推进碳排放权交易和排污权交易组合使用。     

市场型环境规制交互下减污降碳协同增效的效应分析

利用中国减污降碳的主要市场型环境规制政策试点——排污权交易政策和碳排放权交易政策作为准自然实验,本研究基于2003—2018年中国268个地级市的面板数据,运用三重差分模型、空间杜宾模型及嵌套模型,探究减污降碳的政策协同与区域协同效应。研究发现：实施“双权”交易可以对碳排放和PM_2.5减排产生政策协同效应,并促进区域间的协同效应;实施单一的环境规制会对非排放清单的排放物减排产生负面效果,且没有形成区域协同效应;实施“双权”交易可以提高地区绿色全要素生产率,并促进区域间的协同效应。本研究的发现可以为中国推进减污降碳协同效应提供政策启示。     

Panel heterogeneous distribution analysis of trade and modernized agriculture on CO2 emissions: The role of renewable and fossil fuel energy consumption

In line with the global target of reducing climate change and its impact, this study explored the causal relationship between CO₂ emissions, modernized agriculture, trade openness, aggregate and disaggregate energy consumption in 14 African countries from 1990–2013 using a panel quantile estimation procedure. The empirical results showed that value addition to agricultural commodities declines CO₂ emissions in countries with high pollution levels. The study revealed a positive nexus between CO₂ emissions and energy consumption homogeneously distributed across quantiles. Trade openness was found to lower CO₂ emissions in countries with lower and higher levels of environmental pollution. While fossil fuel energy consumption was found to exacerbate CO₂ emissions, renewable energy consumption confirmed its mitigating effect on environmental pollution. The institution of climate‐smart agricultural options will sustainably increase productivity and income while adapting to climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Diversification of energy technologies with clean and modern energy sources like renewables avoid the over‐dependence on fossil fuels for agricultural purposes. Trade policies can stimulate flows of technology and investment opportunities for specialization in production and economies of scale. Hence, the consideration of policies that boost agricultural sector productivity and create an efficient market for international trade in Africa will help in improving livelihoods.     

对外经济贸易对中国碳排放的影响:基于省级面板数据的实证分析

改革开放以来,我国的对外经济贸易有了显著的发展,外商直接投资和进出口的快速增长有效地推动了经济的快速发展。然而在经济发展的同时,我国碳排放水平日益提高,已成为全球最大排放国。为了更好地管控碳排放,研究外商直接投资(FDI),对外贸易与碳排放的关系具有重要意义。本文通过对我国1995—2011年29个省(市、自治区)的FDI、对外贸易对碳排放的动态效应分析发现,FDI与进出口水平的提升均有利于降低我国碳排放的水平,“污染天堂”假说在我国并未得到证实。同时,本文验证了“环境库兹涅茨曲线”在我国的存在,证实了我国的碳排放水平与人均GDP存在倒“U”型关系。     

深圳大气污染特征模拟及环境容量估算

本文根据深圳市8 个监测站点2013 年的逐日PM₁₀ 和PM_2.5 浓度监测数据、气象数据,统计风向、风速、稳定度联合频率等,利用污染物在大气中输送扩散模式,由实测的浓度值反推出污染物的产生量或排放量的方法,重点分析龙华新区PM₁₀ 和PM_2.5 的污染特征,并依据环境目标值,估算该区域剩余环境容量。研究结果表明,龙华新区全年盛行东风、南风,其风频分别为16.7%、13.2%,风速约为1.6m/s,PM₁₀、PM_2.5 浓度均呈现出季节性变化,秋、冬季浓度值较高,尤其在10 月到次年1 月份,其排放强度主要受本地污染源的影响。除此以外,其西、北部的污染源对其污染物浓度有一定的影响。新区PM₁₀ 和PM_2.5 的剩余环境容量均呈现负值,尤其以PM_2.5 最为突出,须大力加强减排控制,以达到环境目标值     

Unveiling the liaison between human capital,trade openness,and environmental sustainability for BRICS economies: Robust panel-data estimation

Global warming and greenhouse gas emissions pose severe threats to environmental sustainability. A sustainable environment is a prerequisite for long-term socioeconomic growth and human survival. Green technology is brought about by a country's economic and financial openness, and education provides knowledge to the public and labor, contributing to environmental sustainability. Thus, this research aims to unveil the liaison between human capital, trade openness, and environmental quality for Russia, Brazil, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) countries from 1998 to 2018. Several econometric methods, including the Driscoll–Kraay standard errors and the Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality approaches, reveal long-run and causal relationships among the modelled indicators. The Driscoll–Kraay standard error results show that human capital is negatively related to carbon dioxide emissions (CO₂ emissions). Imposing high tariffs and excise duties, changing tax structures, discouraging the inflow of polluted commodities, and encouraging green trade can help BRICS combat high environmental pollution. The results show that a one-point increase in human capital in models 1 and 2 can reduce CO₂ emissions by 1.5279 and 0.1538 points, respectively. In contrast, a 1% growth in trade can lead to a rise in CO₂ emissions of 0.3731% and 0.2384%, respectively. Similarly, financial development and energy consumption result in high CO₂ emissions in the long run. Moreover, a feedback effect of the human capital index on CO₂ emissions is discovered. As a result of the findings, the government and responsible authorities should provide financial support and encourage investments in the region's energy-resourceful and sustainable green projects.     

Environmental policy stringency,renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions: Panel cointegration analysis for BRIICTS countries

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between environmental policy stringency and CO₂ emissions in BRIICTS (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, Turkey and South Africa) for the period 1993–2014 after controlling for renewable energy, fossil energy, oil prices and income. We believe that this is the first attempt to use the recently OECD-developed environmental policy stringency index to test the effectiveness of environmental stringency policy in reducing CO₂ emission in these countries. Applying the Panel Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributive Lag (PMG-ARDL) estimator, we found an inverted U–shaped relationship between environmental policy stringency and CO₂ emissions. This suggests that initially strict stringent environmental policy does not lead to improvements in the environment but after a certain level or a threshold point, environmental stringency policy leads to improvement in environmental quality. Renewable energy consumption was negatively related to CO₂ emissions while fossil energy consumption and real oil prices and income were positively and significantly related to CO₂. Our findings suggest that strengthening the stringency of environmental policies and promoting renewable energy are effective ways of preventing environmental degradation in BRIICTS countries.     

Carbon flows and carbon use in the German anthroposphere: An inventory

Today, global climate change is one of the most urgent environmental problems. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) has to be stabilised by significant reductions of CO₂ emissions in the next decades to keep the expected temperature rise within tolerable borders. Efforts exceeding the implemented measures to reduce CO₂ emissions in Germany are desirable. An important pre-condition for such measures is a scientific-based inventory of the sources, sinks, and use of carbon.In this paper, we present CarboMoG, i.e. Carbon Flow Model of Germany. CarboMoG is a carbon flow model covering carbon flows, carbon sources and sinks in Germany and the German anthroposphere, showing concurrent energy and non-energy use of carbon sources.The model consists of seven modules in German anthroposphere following the German classification of economic sectors. Carbon flows to and from atmosphere and lithosphere as well as imports and exports were included into the model. The model comprises roughly 220 material flows determined based on material flow procedures for the base year 2000.Main sources of carbon are fossil energy carriers from lithosphere and uptake of CO₂ by crops (52% resp. 48% of all carbon sources). The model calculations show that import of energy carriers dominates total carbon import to Germany (82%). Total non-energy use of carbon in Germany is significantly higher than energy use (386 Mt C and 230 Mt C, resp.). Carbon throughput of Industry is greatest (about 224 Mt C input), followed by Energy (about 129 Mt C input). Agriculture and Forestry & Industry show the highest figure for non-energy use of carbon, energy use of carbon is largest in the Energy sector. Emissions of CO₂ to atmosphere account for 94% of all carbon flows to sinks in Germany. Carbon accumulates in German anthroposphere 5 Mt C in 2000.     

基于混合生命周期评价模型的我国食物系统水资源消耗及二氧化碳排放核算

食物生产不仅依赖水资源,同时产生大量二氧化碳排放,这种资源环境影响存在于食物系统整个产业链。为促进食物系统节水降碳,本文构建了包含5大类共23种具体食物部门的混合生命周期评价模型,对各类食物系统的完全水资源消耗和二氧化碳排放进行了核算与比较。结果表明：①不同食物的水资源消耗和二氧化碳排放差异明显,动物性食物的平均水资源消耗和二氧化碳排放强度分别为植物性食物的1.9 ～ 15.0倍和1.9 ～ 2.7倍;②食物系统直接和间接水资源消耗占比较为接近,但二氧化碳排放主要源自上游产业链的间接排放,占比高达80.9%;③食物系统间接水资源消耗主要来自农业部门,而间接碳排放主要来自电力生产和供应业、基础化工原料制造业、非金属矿产品行业和交通运输业;④从营养元素供给看,动物性食物提供蛋白质和脂肪的资源环境影响高于植物性食物,蔬菜和主食分别在提供维生素C和碳水化合物上具有最小的环境成本。基于本文结果,食物系统节水应主要提高生产环节用水效率,而降碳则主要依靠上游产业减排,特别是发电和化肥生产等行业的协同节水减碳潜力。同时,本文结果也可为未来基于环境影响制定膳食指南提供数据支撑。     

城市电动汽车规模化发展的大气环境影响研究

发展电动汽车被认为是有效缓解城市交通污染的重要措施,但大规模的电动汽车发展不仅有增加电力部门排放的风险,而且可能影响电网运营的稳定性。本研究以南京市为例,综合应用充电行为模式调研、蒙特卡洛模拟、COPERT模型、排放因子法等方法,系统研究了私家车、出租车和公交车三种类型电动汽车的充电特征及其对区域交通和电力部门排放的影响。结果表明,当三种车型的电动化率分别达到50%、100%和100%时,城市的NOx、PM_(2.5)、CO、VOCs和CO_2排放量将分别比基准情景减少378t、305t、20 223t、3649t和480万t。但是,SO_2排放增加了1152t,并且导致南京市电网的夏季峰值负荷增加10%。为更好地改善中国城市环境空气质量,应综合考虑电动汽车有序充电、协同促进清洁电力等发展策略,最大限度地实现电动汽车的环境效益。     

欧美经验对我国“十三五”大气污染防治战略的启示

当前,我国大气污染形势严峻,复合型污染特征突出。新修订的《中华人民共和国环境保护法》、《中华人民共和国大气污染防治法》、《环境空气质量标准》以及《大气污染防治行动计划》的发布和实施,对我国大气污染防治工作提出了更高要求。"十三五"时期是我国环境保护负重前行困难期和大有作为关键期,也是我国改善大气环境质量的攻坚期,需要系统谋划大气污染防治战略。欧盟和美国在制定大气污染防治战略时,以改善空气质量为核心,构建了涵盖一次污染物和二次污染物的多污染物目标体系,规定了环境浓度、排放量、直观感受(能见度)、健康以及管理等约束性指标,并且针对大气污染防治政策分析实施的成本与收益,开发相应的模型工具,基于收益成本比进行科学决策。本文对欧美环境规划和战略中的多污染物协同控制目标体系以及大气污染防治政策成本效益评估经验进行梳理,分析我国大气污染防治战略的现状和问题,并提出相关政策建议,以期为解决"心肺之患"、实现环保"十三五"总体目标提供参考。     

Toward sustainable use of natural resources: Nexus between resource rents,affluence, energy intensity and carbon emissions in developing and transition economies

Sustainable use of natural resources would entail ensuring that derived economic benefits today do not undermine the welfare of generations to come. On this basis, this study examines the nexus between natural resource rents and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions disaggregated into production and consumption-based (i.e., trade-adjusted) CO₂ emissions for a selected panel of 45 developing and transition economies over the period 1995–2017. The empirical model also incorporates the impacts of population, affluence, and energy intensity. The results show that affluence increases production-based CO₂ emissions by 1.407%, with the EKC's predicted inverted U-shaped curve only explaining consumption-based CO₂ emissions. Economic reliance on natural resource rents and energy intensification contribute 0.022% and 0.766%, respectively, to CO₂ emissions embedded in territorial production inventories and 0.035% and 0.583%, respectively, to CO₂ emissions embedded in consumption inventories. The bootstrap non-causality test shows that historical data on each variable has significant predictive power for future CO₂ emissions from both sources. The historical information about natural resource rents has significant predictive power over the future levels of affluence and energy intensity. Clearly, the results show that the environmental impact of natural resource rents is stronger when CO₂ emissions are adjusted for trade and varies among the countries, with Bangladesh, Guinea, India, Malaysia, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, and Zimbabwe among the most affected countries. Overall, this study provides motivation for policies to keep the use of natural resources within sustainable limits.