Shortfalls in minerals investments

The international minerals industry continues to have a substantial investment shortfall. The widening exploration and mineral development gaps, not only in the lesser developed countries but also in the developed nations, are sowing the seeds for future mineral supply disruptions and conflicts. Mutuality of interests demands concerted initiatives, individual as well as collective, to reverse the investment trends established by international mineral finance and the multinational corporations in order to pave the way for secure mineral supplies in the future at acceptable prices.     

Copper in India: Present and future outlook

The availability of mineral resources plays an important role in India's national economy. Copper, one of the important non-ferrous metals, has various industrial uses and demand for it is increasing in India where the inventory and production of copper, though not comparable with developed countries, shows an impressive growth rate, particularly during the last decade. With an increasing rate of industrial production envisaged in future plans copper consumption is expected to rise. Logistic curves have been used to study the potential long-term production capability under the dynamic concept of reserves and resources, with curves drawn for various estimates of total available resources. The production figures shown are not final and are subject to change due to a number of factors. This approach merely provides a method for projecting trends in future production.     

Water Supply Planning Considering Uncertainties in Future Water Demand and Climate: A Case Study in an Illinois Watershed

Ensuring an adequate, reliable, clean, and affordable water supply for citizens and industries requires informed, long-range water supply planning, which is critically important for water security. A balance between water supply and demand must be considered for a long-term plan. However, water demand projections are often highly uncertain. Climate change could impact the hydrologic processes, and consequently, threaten water supply. Thus, understanding the uncertainties in future water demand and climate is critical for developing a sound water supply plan. In Illinois, regional water supply planning attempts to explore the impacts of future water demand and climate on water supply using scenario analyses and hydrologic modeling. This study is aimed at developing a water supply planning framework that considers both future water demand and climate change impacts. This framework is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate the watershed hydrology and conduct scenario analyses that consider the uncertainties in both future water demand and climate as well as their impacts on water supply. The framework was applied to water supply planning efforts in the Kankakee River watershed. The Kankakee River watershed model was calibrated and validated to observed streamflow records at four long-term United States Geological Survey streamflow gages. Because of the many model parameters involved, the calibration process was automated and was followed by a manual refinement, resulting in good model performance. Long-range water demand projections were prepared by the Illinois State Water Survey. Six future water demand scenarios were established based on a suite of assumptions. Climate scenarios were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection Phase 5 datasets. Three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, are used in the study. The scenario simulation results demonstrated that climate change appears to have a greater impact on water availability in the study area than water demand. The framework developed in this study can also be used to explore the impacts of uncertainties of water demand and climate on water supply and can be extended to other regions and watersheds.     

The necessity to elaborate minerals policies exemplified by Romania

Mineral resources represent an integral component within a country’s economy. Despite the fact that the need for raw materials undergoes continuous growth–especially in countries which experience industrial upswing–proper measures to secure the access to domestic mineral resources in the long term have only been applied marginally in a large number of states. This lack of future-oriented legal frameworks–referred to as ‘Minerals Policies’–might lead to a diversity of sectoral problems (eg. dependency on certain raw materials imports). Based on data analysis and subsequent demand forecasting comprehensive national Minerals Policies can be derived in order to anticipate emerging issues and to achieve optimum sustainable management of domestic geological resources. The necessity of such concepts is illustrated by the example of Romania focusing on non-energetic mineral resources.     

Time-series analysis of global zinc demand associated with steel

This study aimed to analyze the global-scale substance flow of zinc associated with steel in order to discuss the sustainable use of zinc resources in the future. The relationship between the demand for steel and zinc was characterized in terms of zinc intensity for galvanized steel and the percentage of galvanized steel that accounts for the total steel demand. Zinc consumption for steel was divided into end uses according to the statistics on steel. Zinc demand in the future was forecasted with three scenarios for zinc intensity. Future steel demand was estimated using the stocks-drive-flows model, in which the demand is determined by the change in stock. The growth of in-use stock of galvanized steel in the future was estimated by considering economic growth on the basis of the transition of in-use stock of galvanized steel in the past. The cumulative zinc demand for galvanized steel up to the year 2050 was compared with the zinc reserves. It was found that the global average recovery rate of zinc was estimated at approximately 20% by the dynamic substance flow analysis for zinc. It is hoped that the recovery rate will increase. Even if zinc intensity is continuously reduced according to an experience curve based on technological development, a large portion of the current reserves will be consumed for galvanized steel. It was concluded that technological development in reducing zinc intensity will play a significant role in zinc resource conservation.     

Lithium availability in the EU27 for battery-driven vehicles: The impact of recycling and substitution on the confrontation between supply and demand until2050

The adverse impacts of climate change are widely recognized as well as the importance of the mitigation of carbon dioxide (CO₂). Battery driven vehicles are expected to have a bright future, since GHG emissions can be reduced. Lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries appear to be the most promising, due to their high energy density. Recently, the discussion concerning adequate lithium carbonate (Li₂CO₃) resources is resolved. The current challenge is the needed increase in flow rate of Li₂CO₃ into society to foresee in forecasted demand. This research determines ten factors which influence the availability of Li-ion batteries for the EU27 in the coming decades. They are used in a system dynamics analysis. The results of this research show that undersupply can be expected in the EU27 until 2045 somewhere between 0.5 Mt and 2.8 Mt. Substitution of Li₂CO₃ in other end-use markets and recycling can relieve the strain on Li₂CO₃ supply to some extent. In 2050, 20% of the vehicle fleet in the EU27 can be battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The lack of resources in the EU27 and the geographical distribution of lithium in politically sensitive areas suggest that the shares of lithium available for the EU27 will be less than assumed in this research. The increase in flow rate shows to be the bottle-neck for a transition to (partly) battery driven vehicles in the EU27, at least when Li-ion batteries are used. Focusing on large-scale application of BEVs with Li-ion batteries in order to substantially mitigate CO₂ emissions in transport is a futile campaign.     

Strategies of environmental organizations in the Netherlands with regard to the acidification problem

Summary It is usually assumed that a strategy should be considered to be a quality of an environmental organization. The organization would either employ a characteristic strategy with respect to a problem over time or at least it would use the same strategy regarding different problems at a certain point in time.The purpose of this study was to investigate whether strategies of environmental organizations concerning acidification change over time; and are the same as those in respect of ozone depletion. The results show that strategies regarding acidification changed over time and that they were different from those concerning ozone depletion (obtained from an earlier case study). In the ozone depletion case only environmentally-oriented organizations were actively involved with the problem. The definition in society of acidification as a dying forest issue attracted, however, attention from nature-oriented organizations as well. The resulting broad spectrum of organizations mutually influenced each other's strategies. These findings indicate that the definition of a problem in society is very important for determining the strategies pursued by environmental organizations. This conclusion has not merely academic value, but it can also serve as a boundary condition when defining future strategies of environmental organizations.Ruud Pleune is a Research Associate in the Department of Science, Technology and Society at Utrecht University.     

Water demand management in England and Wales: Constructions of the domestic water user

Measures to manage demand include implicit and explicit messages about domestic water users, which have important potential impacts on their perceptions and practices. Drawing on recent literature, this paper identifies three different ‘dimensions’ along which demand management measures' constructions of the water user may vary: these relate to whether the water user is passive or active, whether they are motivated by individual or common needs and whether they perceive water as a right or a commodity. Demand management measures currently used in England and Wales are then discussed and analysed. The paper concludes by highlighting the importance of communications associated with demand management, and in particular, notes the need to consider the cumulative impact of messages and their interactions with people's existing understandings.     

A quantitative integrated evaluation of sustainable development of mineral resources of a mining city: a case study of Huangshi,Eastern China

It is generally considered that the non-renewable nature of mineral resources will make them gradually depleted over time. However, in the perspective of development availability of mineral resources in a long-term depends not only on their currently available amounts but also on future potential mineral resources (e.g. those undiscovered and low-grade ores) and substitutive renewable resources. In addition, it is influenced by factors like technology and capital. These factors interact with each other. As a result, it is possible to make the sustainable development of mineral resources by appropriate coordination between these factors. A new concept of Degree of Sustainable Development of Mineral Resources (DSDMR) and its conceptual model are proposed in this paper in the viewpoints of system science and sustainable development to evaluate the ability of sustainable development of mineral resources for a mining city. DSDMR refers to the ability of meeting needs of present and future generations for mineral resources by their logical distribution and substitution. An indicator system and a fuzzy integrated judgment model, which involve factors of resources, economy, society, environments and intelligence, are presented. They are used to evaluate DSDMR of Huangshi city, which is the most ancient and yet one of the most important mining cities producing iron and copper in China.     

EVALUATING DIRECT BENEFIT ESTIMATION PROCEDURES FOR IRRIGATION PROJECTS: A SIMPLIFIED APPROACH1

ABSTRACT: An integral part of evaluating the net benefits generated by an existing or proposed irrigation project is the assessment of the associated impacts in commodity markets. Traditionally, these impacts have been measured by either assuming no change in commodity prices and calculating net returns to project farmers, or by allowing commodity prices to fall in accordance with a given elasticity of demand and subtracting commodity production costs from the associated area under the commodity demand curve. In either case, it is implicitly assumed that supply is perfectly inelastic. This article establishes that traditional approaches to measuring direct benefits are biased. Formulae are presented for calculating the maximum absolute and relative error which may result from using these techniques as a function of project size. Direct benefit estimates are then evaluated for three irrigation projects in Nebraska, illustrating how these results can be used to improve project evaluation procedures.     

Availability estimation of a multi-state wind farm in fuzzy environment

Wind is one of the fastest growing renewable energy resources in the electric power system. Availability of wind energy is volatile in nature due to the stochastic behavior of wind speed and non-linear variation of the wind power curve of wind turbine generator. Because of this impression and uncertainty, the availability estimation of wind power has become a challenging issue. In this paper, Markov Fuzzy Reward technique has been proposed for finding out the reliability of wind farm by assessing the availability of wind power. According to this technique, availability of the wind power has been estimated considering wind farm and demand both as a multi-state system. In addition to the availability, different reliability indices such as the number of absolute failures, mean time to deficiency, and probability of failures of a wind farm have been assessed in a time horizon, which can provide useful information for the power system planner at wind farm installing stage. A comparison of this study reveals the efficacy of the proposed Markov Fuzzy Reward approach over the conventional Markov Reward approach.     

WATER CONSTRAINTS ON ENERGY DEVELOPMENT: A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS1

ABSTRACT: The pressure on water resources from energy resource development and transformation is likely to be greater in the future than it has been in the past. A rational resolution of the political problems that this situation will generate requires that: 1) planning based on predictions of future energy supply and demand be replaced by scenario, or “what if?” analysis; 2) full attention be paid to the uncertainties in per-unit-energy water requirements; 3) suitable stochastic measures of water availability be used to compare water supply with water demand; 4) realistic ecological criteria, and other alternative use criteria, be developed for estimating impacts of water withdrawn or consurned for energy development; 5) human consequences of ecological impaccts are described in a manner that will allow the political process to intervene in an optimum manner to allocate water resources.     

The internationalisation of the Australian mineral industry in the 1990s

Overseas mineral exploration and mining investment by Australian companies increased dramatically from the early 1990s until 1997. In the wake of the Asian economic crisis and lower commodity prices it declined somewhat in 1998 and 1999. Reflecting their international competitiveness, Australian resource companies were actively involved in projects in about eighty nations in 1999. This study assesses the extent of growth in exploration and mining operations, the distribution between large and small companies and the changing regional focus which has been occurring. It also reflects on some of the key influences on this development. These include a strong domestic finance sector, supporting mining services provision, technological competitiveness, a growing attractiveness of offshore locations and increasing structural impediments at home.     

Implications for the carrying capacity of lithium reserve in China

China is a major supplier of rechargeable lithium batteries for the world's consumer electronics (CE) and electric vehicles (EV). Consequently, China's domestic lithium resources are being rapidly depleted, and the development of the CE and EV industries will be vulnerable to the carrying capacity of China's lithium reserves. Here we find that lithium demand in China will increase significantly due to the continuing growth of demand for CE and the briskly emerging market for EV, resulting in a short carrying duration of lithium, even with full recycling of end-of-life lithium products. With these applications increasing at an annual rate of 7%, the carrying duration of lithium reserves will oblige the end-of-life products recycling with a 90% rate. To sustain the lithium industry, one approach would be to develop the collection system and recycling technology of lithium-containing waste for closed-loop lithium recycling, and other future endeavors should include developing the low-lithium battery and optimizing lithium industrial structure.     

Mineral resources appraisal and policy: Controversies,issues and the future

Political-economic events of the 1970s brought mineral resource appraisal to the focus of national policy. Estimates of and methodologies for mineral resources appraisal were scrutinized, revealing deficiencies in method and data and fostering considerable debate about the credibility of estimates and about preferred methodology. Since credibility can be increased through the acquisition of additional geoscience information, questions regarding methodology have more than one formulation and therefore more than one correct solution, depending upon the expected value of additional information and the conditional losses of relevant policy options. When existing information is meagre and the expected value of information is high, the optimum decision may be to defer all policy options until after the acquisition and analysis of- additional information. Decision theory offers an analytical framework that is sufficiently generalized to provide answers for highly varied circumstances of geoscience and resource information and policy issues. Our ability to perform any such analysis is limited by inaccuracies in both geologists' estimates of undiscovered mineral resources, and in economists' calculations of conditional losses of policy options for each of the relevant states of mineral resources.     

Soviet non-fuel mineral resources : Surplus or scarcity?

The USSR has long been regarded as a resource-rich country with no need for external sources of non-fuel mineral resources. Increasingly, however, it is beginning to appear that such an assessment of the Soviet non-fuel mineral resource picture is overly optimistic. The Soviet mineral industry is beset by a variety of problems which complicate the extraction and utilization of needed minerals. The USSR remains a resource-rich country, but the difficulties it encounters exploiting its resources are multiplying. This article examines the Soviet aluminium, chromium, cobalt, copper, gold, iron, lead, manganese, platinum, titanium and zinc industries, and offers views of the Soviet resource future in each area.     

Understanding the dynamics and competitiveness of the South African minerals inputs cluster

South Africa has developed niche competencies around the extraction and processing of mineral resources. Firms involved in the manufacture and supply of inputs to mining and mineral processing represent a key source of competitive advantage upon which future growth and development in the country can be planned. Drawing on a qualitative and quantitative study of 678 supplier firms conducted in 2004, this paper presents an assessment of the state of the South African minerals inputs cluster. The various demand and supply relationships, dynamics, and growth opportunities within the cluster are highlighted and the threats affecting the cluster's future competitiveness reviewed. The interventions needed to overcome and/or enhance them are also identified.     

Assessment of the overall resource consumption of germanium wafer production for high concentration photovoltaics

The overall resource requirements for the production of germanium wafers for III–V multi-junction solar cells applied in concentrator photovoltaics have been assessed based on up to date process information. By employing the cumulative energy demand (CED) method and the cumulative exergy extraction from the natural environment (CEENE) method the following resources have been included in the assessment: fossil resources, nuclear resources, renewable resources, land resources, atmospheric resources, metal resources, mineral resources and water resources. The CED has been determined as 216 MJ and the CEENE has been determined as 258 MJ_ex. In addition partial energy and exergy payback times have been calculated for the base case, which entails the installation of the high concentration photovoltaics (HCPVs) in the Southwestern USA, resulting in payback times of around 4 days for the germanium wafer production. Due to applying concentration technology the germanium wafer accounts for only 3% of the overall resource consumption of an HCPV system. A scenario analysis on the electricity input to the wafer production and on the country of installation of the HCPV has been performed, showing the importance of these factors on the cumulative resource consumption of the wafer production and the partial payback times.     

Evaluating a small deposit next to an economically viable gold mine in West Africa from the points of view of the mining company,the government and the local community

This paper addresses the question of evaluating how much the different stakeholders stand to gain from a mining project. By carefully analysing the breakdown of the cash-flows generated, we were able to estimate the amounts received by the local community and by the national community (outside the mining area), the taxes and royalties received by the government and the profits made by the mining company. A real options framework was used to take account of the inherent uncertainty on the commodity price and the reserves, and the operating flexibility (that is, the possibility for the company to stop mining if the commodity price drops and/or the reserves prove to be lower than that had been envisaged). A synthetic case-study of a gold mine in West Africa was used to illustrate how this procedure could be applied in practice. By using the real option framework we were able to envisage scenarios for developing an extension to a deposit as a function of future values of the commodity price. The procedure proposed should provide governments and NGOs with more objective data for making policy decisions.     

Probability of continued Soviet mineral self-sufficiency

The USSR ranks as a major producer of virtually all energy and non-fuel minerals. Soviet minerals policy, a key component of national economic development, is based primarily on an unprecedented level of self-sufficiency. The author explains how recent changes in historical export-import patterns, decreasing ore grades, rising consumption, limitations imposed by the Soviet economic system, and depletion of easily accessible deposits could signify a future inability to sustain its supply independence. The apparent existence of vast, remote mineralized areas in Asia suggests self-sufficiency could remain an option available to Soviet leaders, but it would be even more expensive to maintain.