A Report on the Inter-regional Conference on Adaptation to Climate Change

The IPCC Third Assessment highlighted theneed for adaptation to climate change.Keeping in view the importance ofadaptation to climate change, particularlyin developing countries, DevelopmentAlternatives organised an Inter-regionalConference on Adaptation to Climate Change,during October 18-20, 2002, just before CoP8 at New Delhi. About 120 participants frommore than 20 countries, both developed anddeveloping, participated in the conference.The conference discussed vulnerability ofnatural and human systems and communitypractices to adapt to climate change. Theconference deliberated on training andcapacity building of communities forincreasing their resilience to adapt toadverse impacts of climate change. Theparticipants also came out with a set ofrecommendations for wider dissemination tovarious stakeholders during the COP 8 beingheld at New Delhi (from 23 October to 1November). The recommendations from theconference were used in the COP 8negotiations as well as the DelhiMinisterial Declaration. The ConferenceReport will provide a guideline for thedeveloping countries for initiating work onadaptation.     

A Report on the International Conference on Climate Policy after Marrakech: Towards Global Participation

The East-West Center convened the international conference on climate policy in Honolulu, Hawaii, on September 4–6, 2003. Sponsored by the Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial Planning and the Environment, the Japanese Ministry of the Environment, Industrial Technology Research Institute (Taiwan), and Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (Japan), this major event covered almost every important issue and featured perspectives from the most important parties and stakeholders in formulating and implementing climate policies and taking international climate negotiations further. It brought together a remarkable cross-section of world opinion on climate policy after Kyoto. This report provides a summary of each presentation and highlights discussions organized under the following six session headings: Session 1: Climate Change in Focus – From Science to Policy; Session 2: U.S. Climate Policy and Perspectives; Session 3: European Union Climate Policy and Perspectives; Session 4: Challenges for other Major Industrialized Countries; Session 5: Issues Related to Developing Countries; and Session 6: Panel Discussions: Where Do We Go from Here?.     

Emissions associated with meeting the future global wheat demand: A case study of UK production under climate change constraints

Climate change, population growth and socio-structural changes will make meeting future food demands extremely challenging. As wheat is a globally traded food commodity central to the food security of many nations, this paper uses it as an example to explore the impact of climate change on global food supply and quantify the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Published data on projected wheat production is used to analyse how global production can be increased to match projected demand. The results show that the largest projected wheat demand increases are in areas most likely to suffer severe climate change impacts, but that global demand could be met if northern hemisphere producers exploit climate change benefits to increase production and narrow their yield gaps. Life cycle assessment of different climate change scenarios shows that in the case of one of the most important wheat producers (the UK) it may be possible to improve yields with an increase of only 0.6% in the emission intensity per unit of wheat produced in a 2 °C scenario. However, UK production would need to rise substantially, increasing total UK wheat production emissions by 26%. This demonstrates how national emission inventories and associated targets do not incentivise minimisation of global greenhouse gas emissions while meeting increased food demands, highlighting a triad of challenges: meeting the rising demand for food, adapting to climate change and reducing emissions.     

Implication of the cluster analysis using greenhouse gas emissions of Asian countries to climate change mitigation

Climate change caused by excessive emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere has gained serious attention from the global community for a long time. More and more countries have decided to propose their goals such as Paris agreements, to reduce emitting these heat trapping compounds for sustainability. The Asian region houses dramatic changes with diverse religions and cultures, large populations as well as a rapidly changing socio-economic situations all of which are contributing to generating a mammoth amount of GHGs; hence, they require calls for related studies on climate change strategies. After pre-filtering of GHG emission information, 24 Asian countries have been selected as primary target countries. Hierarchical cluster analysis method using complete linkage technique was successfully applied for appropriate grouping. Six groups were categorized through GHG emission properties with major and minor emission sectors based on the GHG inventory covering energy, industrial processes, agriculture, waste, land use change, and forestry and bunker fuels. Assigning six groups using cluster analysis finally implied that the approach to establish GHG emission boundaries was meaningful to develop further mitigation strategies. Following the outcome of this study, calculating amount of reduction potential in suitable sectors as well as determining best practice, technology, and regulatory framework can be improved by policy makers, environmental scientists, and planners at the different levels. Therefore, this work on reviewing a wide range of GHG emission history and establishing boundaries of emission characteristics would provide further direction of effective climate change mitigation for sustainability and resilience in Asia.     

Indicators of urban climate resilience: A contextual approach

As urban populations grow and climate exposure increases, more cities are introducing formal planning processes to adapt to climate change. This paper explains the process applied to eight cities in the Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network (ACCCRN) for developing indicators for planning and monitoring local climate resilience. This process relied on transferring a common conceptual framework for climate resilience, together with a locally led iterative and collaborative process that engaged technical and planning authorities and vulnerable groups. The process varied slightly between cities and generated indicators that were chosen for their contextual fit and availability of data. The main benefit of developing resilience indicators in this way was the local capacity that the process built, in terms of understanding resilience, shared understanding of concepts and measurement and establishment of a common platform for future planning and monitoring of climate adaptation interventions at the city level.     

Screening of climatic impacts on a country’s international supply chains: Japan as a case study

Industrial activities are linked through international supply chains, and the impacts that one country experiences can easily influence other countries. Climate change has made it essential for countries to review their supply chains and to prioritize introducing concrete adaptation actions. Therefore, this study aims to demonstrate a method of screening imported products that are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change by assessing all imported products in a consistent manner throughout the global supply chain to support a country’s adaptation strategy planning. The study focuses on the potential impacts on land use and human health of climate change effects such as floods and heat waves. Japan was selected for a detailed analysis of its imports. A life-cycle assessment technique was applied to evaluate imported products through their supply chains. In Japan’s case, land use results show that agricultural products imported from the United States of America (US) are highly vulnerable to climate change impacts. In relation to imported meat products, feed production processes are most vulnerable. The human health results show in addition to agricultural imports, electronics and textile imports are also vulnerable. The study recommends that the relevant stakeholders impacted by these products scrutinize their supply chains. Especially, Japan is recommended to collaborate with the US, China, and Southeast Asian countries for increasing resilience to climate change. The results include uncertainties due to limitations of data availability and methodology; however, this method is also applicable to assessing the global trade activities of any country and to supporting global adaptation strategies.     

中国城市水资源消费与气候的关系研究

论文利用多项式法将气候耗水量从水资源消费总量中分离出来,用统计分析的方法探讨了气候耗水量与气候因子之间的关系。研究表明:温度、降水量和相对湿度是影响气候耗水量的主要气候因子,在不同地区、不同季节有不同表现,在我国东部,二者的相关性较显著,西部不太明显,而且冬、春季的区域分异明显,夏、秋季不明显,其中冬季在南北向的分异明显,春季在东西向的分异明显。     

Climate risk insurance in Pacific Small Island Developing States: possibilities,challenges and vulnerabilities—a comprehensive review

Climate change has become one of the most compelling fields of empirical research over the last couple of decades, partly due to its socio-economic impacts. Using a meta-analysis of 235 peer-reviewed articles published between January 2010 and July 2020, this paper appraises climate change adaptation (CCA) research in Nepal and draws lessons for future adaptation planning. The number of research is observed to have increased significantly in recent years (2015–2020) although there is no consistent pattern over the review period and at the thematic level. Findings submit that the agriculture and food security has the highest number of publications (37%) followed by gender equality and social inclusion (18%) and forest, biodiversity and watershed management (16%). There are no studies found in rural and urban settlement theme. Geographic distribution of CCA studies revealed that over 40% studies were carried out from central Nepal, while no study was conducted in ten districts of eastern and western Nepal. The study focus was also discrete, and the perception and attitude and impact assessment of climate change were common agendas; however, the drivers of change and options for adaptation were understudied. CCA with multipronged initiatives provide a broader understanding of dynamics and governance of climate change that not only affects rural livelihoods, but also influences regional and global environments and biodiversity.

     

宜居地球、碳中和与全球可持续城市化

人类世标志人类活动已经对地球系统产生重要影响。全球大规模城市化过程伴随碳排放快速增加和下垫面改变,对地球表层影响加剧,地球宜居性遭受破坏。碳中和是应对气候变化的国际共识、建设宜居地球的关键举措。基于多源数据对全球大规模城市化的地理格局与演化过程进行多维度刻画,对碳排放与城市化关联进行初步分析。主要结论如下：（1）全球城市化进程持续推进,城乡人口结构增长呈分化趋势,城市规模结构整体增长,规模增长的空间热点集中在东南亚以及非洲中东部等地区,越来越多的人口生活在大城市。（2）全球城镇用地显著增长,自1992年的36.4 km²增长至2018年的79.3万 km²,增长率达126.0%。同期,亚洲增长占比45.4%,是全球城镇用地扩张的主要地区。（3）伴随快速城市化全球能源碳排放迅速增长,2018年碳排放量达到376.7亿t CO₂,自1970年增长219.1亿t CO₂,其中,结构上电力部门增长占比45.8%、地区上亚洲增长占比84.3%。城市化率、人均GDP与人均碳排放关联呈分异特征,高城市化率、高收入国家间分异显著。呼吁建立跨学科的协同研究,探究“碳中和—宜居地球—可持续城市化”的关联关系,认识可持续城市化对于碳中和目标的潜力。     

Climate change in the urban environment: Advancing,measuring and achieving resiliency

Climate change poses new and unique challenges that threaten lives and livelihoods. Given the increasing risks and looming uncertainty of climate change, increasing attention has been directed towards adaptation, or the strategies that enable humanity to persist and thrive through climate change the best it can. Though climate change is a global problem often discussed at the national scale, urban areas are increasingly seen as having a distinct role, and distinctive motivation and capacity, for adaptation. The 12 articles in this special issue explore ways of understanding and addressing climate change impacts on urban areas. Together they reveal young but rapidly growing scholarship on how to measure, and then overcome, challenges of climate change. Two key themes emerge in this issue: 1) that we must identify and then overcome current barriers to urban adaptation and 2) frameworks/metrics are necessary to identify and track adaptation progress in urban settings. Both of these themes point to the power of indicators and other quantitative information to inform priorities and illuminate the pathway forward for adaptation. As climate change is an entirely new challenge, careful measurement that enables investment by private and public parties is necessary to provide efficient outcomes that benefit the greatest number of people.     

Prioritization of climate change adaptation approaches in the Gambia

Adaptation to climate change has been recognized as very important in developing countries that face the greatest threats from global warming. In proposing various adaptation approaches, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change required nations to prepare adaptation plans of action. However, the areas of priority in climate change adaptation have not been considered. This study has developed a new prioritization methodology for climate change adaptation in developing countries. Five categories and 25 approaches in climate change adaptation were adopted through a thorough and detailed analysis of pertinent literature related to the National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA) in the Gambia. A fuzzy analytic hierarchy process-based questionnaire survey was designed and presented to 12 experts chosen from the committee members of the Gambia’s NAPA. The survey was made to determine the relative importance of the strategies for climate change adaptation. The results indicate that the five most important adaptation categories are health (0.223), forestry (0.213), water (0.210), food (0.181), and energy (0.174), with health as the number one priority in climate change adaptation. Further findings show that the prioritization order of the adaptation approaches to climate change in the Gambia is as follows: “Health education,” “public sensitization,” “water supply infrastructure development,” “microfinance,” and “infrastructure and technology enhancement.”     

The Green Climate Fund as an effective compensatory mechanism in global climate negotiations

The Paris Agreement reached during the COP21 in December 2015 represents a timid step towards burden sharing in emission mitigation involving all countries. However, given the heterogeneity of countries and their relative differences in vulnerability to climate change damage and in mitigation costs, compensating schemes are required to reach an effective agreement. This paper investigates the role of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) as a potential compensating measure for both adaptation and mitigation actions under a global climate regime. A dynamic climate-economy computable general equilibrium model (GDynEP) is developed by including both a monetary valuation of climate change damage costs and two alternative methods to determine the allocation of GCF resources among receiving countries and between adaptation and mitigation contributions. Results show that, despite the high costs associated with the implementation of mitigation actions, most developing countries would face even higher costs in case of inaction. Furthermore, the preference of a country for an allocation method is strongly influenced by its characteristics and needs. Consequently, a main policy conclusion is to design country-specific sharing rules for GCF in order to maximize country participation in a global agreement.     

A multiple timescales approach to assess urgency in adaptation to climate change with an application to the tourism industry

As climate change adaptation is increasingly discussed and becoming a mainstream concept, different types of users are asking themselves if and when they should develop an adaptation strategy, often not knowing where to begin. Climate experts, on the other hand, have access to an enormous amount of data that could be useful to users but often do not know how to translate it into something practical. Both users and experts can be linked through two timescales, the system lifespan and climate vulnerability. While the system lifespan relies on the user’s estimation of his planning timeframe, the climate vulnerability is estimated from climate model projections and observations. We propose a simple tool to relate user and climate expert knowledge by combining the two timescales. To be reliable, the interconnection implies a dialogue to first identify what sensitive climate variable will impact the system and subsequently the extent of the impact. Climate data can then be used to identify, with the use of a simple graph, how sensitive a system is likely to be and help users position themselves about the urgency of adaptation. The concept has been successfully presented and applied to the tourism industry, notably the ski industry, which is showcased in this paper.     

Socio-economic impacts of climate change on rural United States

Directly or indirectly, positively or negatively, climate change will affect all sectors and regions of the United States. The impacts, however, will not be homogenous across regions, sectors, population groups or time. The literature specifically related to how climate change will affect rural communities, their resilience, and adaptive capacity in the United States (U.S.) is scarce. This article bridges this knowledge gap through an extensive review of the current state of knowledge to make inferences about the rural communities vulnerability to climate change based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios. Our analysis shows that rural communities tend to be more vulnerable than their urban counterparts due to factors such as demography, occupations, earnings, literacy, poverty incidence, and dependency on government funds. Climate change impacts on rural communities differs across regions and economic sectors; some will likely benefit while others lose. Rural communities engaged in agricultural and forest related activities in the Northeast might benefit, while those in the Southwest and Southeast could face additional water stress and increased energy cost respectively. Developing adaptation and mitigation policy options geared towards reducing climatic vulnerability of rural communities is warranted. A set of regional and local studies is needed to delineate climate change impacts across rural and urban communities, and to develop appropriate policies to mitigate these impacts. Integrating research across disciplines, strengthening research-policy linkages, integrating ecosystem services while undertaking resource valuation, and expanding alternative energy sources, might also enhance coping capacity of rural communities in face of future climate change.     

城市系统和气候变化耦合关系分析—以南京市为例

气候作为人类生存活动与发展的支撑,其变化也必然对城市"社会-经济-自然"复合生态系统的各个方面产生影响。另一方面,城市建设过程中通过人口增长、经济发展、空间扩张、资源能源消耗等对气候变化产生反作用,以定性与定量分析相结合的方法建立了城市系统与气候变化耦合关系指标,以南京市为例运用Spearman相关系数构建城市系统与气候变化交互作用的相关耦合关系模型,定量揭示出两者耦合的关系。     

The impact of the Clean Development Mechanism on developing countries’ commitment to mitigate climate change and its implications for the future

The objective of this paper is to examine the mitigation of climate change using the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) from the perspective of developing countries. The effects of the CDM on developing countries’ efforts to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) pledged under the Paris Agreement (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC], 21st Conference of the Parties, Paris, France) are investigated. Data analysis reveals that the intensive hosting of CDM projects and the resultant higher marginal abatement costs led to fewer efforts by developing countries to mitigate climate change. A theoretical model from the literature of “low-hanging fruits” is applied to determine if rising prices of the CDM can be expected in the future. The results indicate that the benefits for developing countries must increase so as to keep the CDM attractive for them in an environment where they also have reduction commitments. To further ensure the effectiveness of the CDM under the Paris Agreement, policy should ensure that developing countries actually charge higher prices and, at the same time, contribute adequately to the global goal of GHG reductions. To this end, developing countries should be permitted to demand benefits that lie outside the current scope of the CDM, and non-compliance with their climate targets should also be sanctioned. In addition, fostering sustainable development should become more attractive for developed countries without the CDM, e.g., through sustainability labels, so as to reduce the trade-off for developing countries between the benefits of the CDM and compliance with their commitments to mitigate climate change.

     

全球气候变化谈判及中国应对策略

气候变化作为一个全球性问题,不仅需要单个国家和地区采取行动,更需要国际社会的共同合作。全球气候变化谈判的现状如何,中国又将做出何种外交应对,成为世人关心的重大国际问题之一。本文阐述了全球气候变化谈判现状,总结了主要国家应对气候变化的立场及措施,最后分析了中国在全球气候变化谈判中遇到的挑战以及给出了将来应对气候变化谈判的策略。     

青藏高原东北部气候变化的异质性及其成因

利用1961-2016年西宁等青藏高原东北部13个气象台站气温、降水等气象资料以及国家气候中心发布的南海季风指数、西伯利亚高压指数等大气环流特征量数据,分析近56年来气候变化与高原主体的差异性及其可能的气候成因。研究表明：近56年来青藏高原东北部气候变暖趋势十分显著,年平均气温气候倾向率高达0.39 ℃/10 a,呈现出三次明显的阶梯性增高态势,并于1994年前后发生了由冷到暖的突变,同时具有明显的空间差异性;年降水量及四季降水量均没有明显变化趋势,虽然经历了2002年左右由少到多的变化,但并未出现明显突变,年降水量具有3年、5年的准周期,而年降水日数微弱减少,降水强度呈增加趋势;该区域气候变化的年际波动主要受到东亚季风、高原季风和南海季风的年际振荡及其相互作用的影响,而西风环流的作用并不明显,植被覆盖的恢复既是对2002年以来降水量增加的具体反应,同时也对于气候变暖趋势起到了一定的缓和作用。     

The neurobiology of climate change

Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals’ environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals’ interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.     

Assessing potential future urban heat island patterns following climate scenarios,socio-economic developments and spatial planning strategies

Climate change and urban development will exacerbate current urban heat island effects. While most studies acknowledge the importance of projected temperature increases for raising urban temperatures, little attention is paid to the impacts of future changes in urbanisation patterns. Yet, steering urban development may be an effective strategy to further limit increases in the intensity and spreading of the urban heat island effect. We describe a method that allows exploring the impact of urban development scenarios on the urban heat island effect. This paper starts with a basic analysis of the strength of this effect in a temperate climate under relatively favourable conditions based on data from amateur weather stations and own observations. It explains local variation in observed temperatures and quantifies how the urban heat island effect may develop in the coming 30 years. Using the obtained relations, we assess potential future changes building on existing scenarios of climatic and socio-economic changes and a land use simulation model. Our measurements for the Amsterdam region in the Netherlands indicate that the urban heat island effect induces maximum temperature differences with the surrounding countryside of over 3 °C on moderately warm summer days. The simulations of potential future changes indicate that strong local temperature increases are likely due to urban development. Climate change will, on average, have a limited impact on these changes. Large impacts can, however, be expected from the combination of urban development and potentially more frequent occurrences of extreme climatic events such as heat waves. Spatial planning strategies that reduce the lateral spread of urban development will thus greatly help to limit a further increase in urban heat island values.