储罐爆炸碎片最可能抛射距离的Monte-Carlo(蒙特卡罗)数值模拟

在总结前人工作的基础上,推导了储罐爆炸碎片抛射距离的理论计算公式,并给出具体的计算方法;分析了计算参数的不确定性,同时介绍用Monte-Carlo方法模拟高压储罐爆炸时碎片抛射距离的算法;在数值模拟结果的基础上,计算了碎片抛射距离的分布函数和概率密度函数,引入最可能抛射距离的概念,并指出可以用此来确定碎片抛射的危害范围。该方法对于定量评价储罐爆炸碎片危害性,减缓和控制碎片产生的风险,具有重要的意义。     

BLEVE事故后果分析软件化实现

对BLEVE的三种主要灾害模式，火球辐射、超压以及碎片抛射进行了研究，研究总结了各自的灾害计算模型及相关的伤害准则，采用STATLSTICA6．0对火球直径、持续时间进行了重新拟合，给出了爆炸能量计算模型中不确定性参数的选取方法，对碎片抛射的各个不确定性参数的分布进行了总结。根据总结得出的模型，采用VB6．0编制了BLEVE事故后果分析软件，并分别以球罐、丙烷的热BLEVE算例及卧罐、二氧化碳的冷BLEVE算例对软件的计算功能进行演示。     

高速公路丙烷罐车爆炸事故的后果分析

本文针对公路丙烷罐车爆炸事故的实例,对事故发生的原因进行了分析.分析结果认为,事故属于沸腾液体扩展蒸汽爆炸(BLEVE),事故对人员和财产危害包括3个方面:火球热辐射、爆炸冲击波超压和抛射碎片.本文介绍了这3种危害的数学模型和方法,并针对事故实例进行了分析和计算.结果表明,在事故发生现场100m范围内的热辐射可致人死亡或造成三度烧伤;冲击波超压在80m范围外会使玻璃破碎,但无人员伤亡;抛射碎片在334 m的范围内都可能对人体造成伤害.由此,可以得出火球热辐射是事故中最主要危害的结论.     

受限空间爆炸碎片影响分析

受限空间油气泄漏爆炸会产生巨大的能量,爆炸碎片在抛射距离和抛射方位上具有很大随机性,引发的多米诺事故容易对设备和人员造成重大伤害。为了研究爆炸碎片的影响范围及对设备、人员伤害程度,以地下密闭涵道作为研究对象,考虑爆炸能量影响,采用ANSYS Autodyn模拟软件,重点对涵道覆盖物爆炸碎片进行模拟,定量分析了爆炸碎片的影响范围及在影响区域内对设备、人员造成的伤害程度。结果表明:运用Autodyn软件进行仿真,能够更加准确地得出爆炸碎片的抛射情况及影响范围; 在爆炸能量一定的情况下,碎片的大小是影响设备和人员受伤害程度的重要因素。     

化工储罐间距和体积对爆炸碎片多米诺效应概率的影响

化工储罐爆炸后将产生大量碎片,这些抛射碎片一旦击中相邻罐体容易引发多米诺效应。碎片的抛射方位和抛射距离具有很大的随机性,已有研究多采用概率模型来描述碎片抛射的各分过程。通过总结和发展已有的分过程模型,建立了求取多米诺效应的综合概率模型,并基于蒙特卡罗算法编制了模拟软件,可对化工储罐多米诺效应的发生概率进行预测计算。选取若干常用化工球罐为相邻目标储罐进行实例分析,计算结果表明储罐间距和体积是影响多米诺效应发生概率的两个重要影响因素：随着距离的增大,多米诺效应发生概率不断减小;目标储罐体积越大,多米诺效应发生概率将越大。其中,爆炸碎片对目标储罐的击中概率受上述因素的影响程度更大。该文工作对化工储罐区的安全评价具有一定的参考价值。     

10kt/a甲醇合成精制装置安全性评估与消防设计

甲醇合成精制装置一旦发生泄漏事故,将会对厂内甚至相邻地区的人员生命、机械设备及环境造成严重威胁。为了有效预防事故的发生,通过ALOHA化学品泄漏扩散模拟软件对甲醇合成精制装置进行危险性辨识和评价。结果表明,热辐射危害是池火灾、BLEVE火球的主要危害;BLEVE火球和中毒事故危害范围较广:在BLEVE火球的热辐射中暴露60 s造成死亡的距离均超过100 m,泄漏孔径达5cm时毒气的体积分数达ERPG-3值的距离达326 m。因此,消防设计是甲醇精制装置安全系统设计的重要组成部分。根据《石油化工企业设计防火规范》及相关消防标准规范对该甲醇合成精制车间进行相应的消防系统设计,并用Auto CAD专业绘图软件绘制消防设施的布置图,为施工单位提供依据,从而提高甲醇合成精制装置的安全性,减少人员伤亡事故的发生。     

苯储罐区消防安全设计评价研究

依据苯储罐区危险特性及超压引起火灾爆炸模式的特点,通过实例,对苯储罐区的危险特性及事故后果进行了分析,得出在外界环境温度不同的条件下所对应的火灾爆炸模式;依据规范,对其消防安全设计现状进行了分析和评价。针对苯储罐区在不同温度条件下引发的火灾爆炸灾害模式,利用冲击波超压伤害准则、TNT当量法、蒸气云爆炸模型、池火灾事故后果模型和碎片抛射模型,定量分析评估了储罐内部空间爆炸性混合物超压爆炸和因爆炸引发的蒸气云爆炸、池火灾的事故后果及碎片抛射事故后果。结果表明:苯储罐区发生蒸气云爆炸产生的危害最大,死亡半径、重伤半径及轻伤半径分别为90.72 m、159.16 m、308.38 m;其次是池火灾,死亡半径、重伤半径及轻伤半径分别为74.25 m、103.12 m、132.16 m;当储罐碎片抛射概率为0.001时,3种充装水平事故罐对应的距离分别为60 m、30 m、40m;给出了设置大流量固定式消防冷却水系统、点火源最小能量控制、提高储罐减压泄爆的能力、增加防火堤内固定灭火设施和拦网等应进一步加强的消防安全措施。     

风险积分参数RI在LPG站风险分析及评价中的应用

对液化石油气站选址风险进行定量分析,判断风险的可接受性,从而确定选址是否合理.拟建液化石油气站的F/N曲线未知,辨识液化石油气站可能发生的最严重事故,并应用风险积分参数确定液化石油气站的风险.经判断,液化石油气站可能发生的最严重事故为沸腾液体扩展蒸气爆炸(BLEVE),应用BLEVE火球模型对事故后果进行评价并确定事故影响范围,进而确定影响范围内的最大人数及事故发生频率,在此基础上对LPG站的风险积分参数进行计算.将计算结果与英国安全卫生执行局应用ALARP准则制定的风险可接受标准进行比较.结果表明,该液化石油气站的风险处于合理可接受区.采取一定风险减缓措施后,可考虑在此地点建设液化石油气站.     

风险积分参数RI在LPG站风险分析及评价中的应用

对液化石油气站选址风险进行定量分析，判断风险的可接受性，从而确定选址是否合理。拟建液化石油气站的F／N曲线未知，辨识液化石油气站可能发生的最严重事故，并应用风险积分参数确定液化石油气站的风险。经判断，液化石油气站可能发生的最严重事故为沸腾液体扩展蒸气爆炸（BLEVE），应用BLEVE火球模型对事故后果进行评价并确定事故影响范围，进而确定影响范围内的最大人数及事故发生频率，在此基础上对LPG站的风险积分参数进行计算。将计算结果与英国安全卫生执行局应用ALARP准则制定的风险可接受标准进行比较。结果表明，该液化石油气站的风险处于合理可接受区。采取一定风险减缓措施后，可考虑在此地点建设液化石油气站。     

尾矿库地下水污染风险评价体系研究

为解决目前缺乏统一的、系统的尾矿库地下水污染风险评价方法的问题,通过超标浓度风险直观地反映最大可信事故的危害及其风险的大小,综合水层固有脆弱性、污染荷载风险、污染危害性3方面因素对地下水污染风险进行定量分析和评价.提出相应的评价标准以及风险管理措施,建立了尾矿库地下水污染风险评价体系.将地下水污染风险分成5个等级,实现了尾矿库地下水环境风险评价定量化和标准化.最后将评价体系应用于排山楼金矿尾矿库的地下水污染风险评价,验证了其可行性.     

扑救液化石油气储罐爆炸火灾安全距离的确定

液化石油气储罐爆炸火灾是一类比较难于扑救的特殊火灾，如何根据现场的情况快速评估事故危害，并确定灭火指挥和人员疏散的安全距离，是消防指挥员指挥决策的重要问题，也是难点问题。本文研究了液化石油气储罐发生BLEVE时的热辐射和冲击波计算方法，并导出了安全距离的确定方法。对于消防指挥员快速决策具有十分重要的意义。     

LPG球罐BLEVE过程中超压与热耦合效应模拟研究

为评估LPG球罐发生BLEVE过程中超压与热耦合效应对化工企业抗爆控制室和避难所选址的影响,采用TNO多能法数学模型计算冲击波超压,采用多源数学模型计算火球热辐射。编写MATLAB计算程序,并应用ANSYS模拟二者破坏效应的耦合作用。LPG球罐发生BLEVE过程中,爆炸冲击波的传播速度、持续时间和火球的传播速度、持续时间不同,爆炸冲击波主要在燃料高速抛散的初期形成,之后基本与火球脱离。分别模拟计算冲击波超压和火球热辐射对抗爆控制室和避难所的影响,结果表明：抗爆控制室选址只需考虑爆炸冲击波的影响;避难所选址需要考虑冲击波超压和火球热辐射作用双重影响。在研究基础上提出,LPG球罐附近人员逃生的避难所应设置在球罐防火堤外紧邻防火堤处的地下,应具有抗震、防渗、防火、防中毒窒息等功能。人员应在BLEVE发生前进入避难所才能逃生。     

Case study: Assessment on large scale LPG BLEVEs in the 2011 Tohoku earthquakes

After the 2011 Tohoku earthquakes, several chemical and oil complexes on the Pacific Ocean shoreline of northeast Japan experienced massive losses. In Chiba, a refinery operated by Cosmo Oil lost 17 LPG storage vessels which were either heavily damaged or totally destroyed by fires and explosions in the refinery. These large vessels ranged in size from 1000 to 5000 m³. The estimated volume of LPG at the time of the incident was between 400 and 5000 m³ for each vessel. Five boiling liquid expanding vapor explosions (BLEVEs) of LPG occurred, resulting in huge fire balls measuring about 500 m in diameter.A BLEVE is defined as the explosive release of expanding vapor and boiling liquid when a container holding a pressure-liquefied gas fails catastrophically. It is thus important to estimate the physical properties of superheated liquids: the thermodynamic and transport properties, the intrinsic limits to superheating and depressurization, and the nature of thermodynamic paths. Also it is hoped to provide better understanding of the vessels designed, manufactured, installed, and operated to reduce or eliminate the probability that a sequence of events will result in BLEVE or loss of primary containment. Knowledge of these matters is still incomplete. The objective of this research is to estimate the significant BLEVE phenomenon in very large scale spherical vessels based on published information in Japan. There are some models predicting BLEVEs. However, it is essential to know if this is true for very large scales such as spheres since validation is usually rare to provide confidence in estimating the superheated liquids behaviors. To this end, comparing with the information on this event, the conditions in the five LPG vessels at the time of the BLEVE were determined in terms of: duration of vessel failure (time to BLEVE); mass fraction in the vessel with time; temperature distribution in the liquid and vapor region and pressure within the vessel (e.g. initial pressure and internal high-speed transient pressure during failure), by means of a computer program AFFTAC Analysis of Fire Effects on Tank Cars, which solves heat conduction, stress and a failure model of the tank, a thermodynamic model of its fluid contents, and a flow model for the lading flowing through the safety relief device. Subsequently, the consequences from the sphere BLEVE, such as the expected fireball diameter and duration and the expected blast overpressure produced by the BLEVE failures, are also subjects of active research. Here the blast using the methods of PHAST and SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering was calculated.Results suggest that methodologies here used gave reasonable estimations for such real and huge BLEVEs in a validated way, which may provide valuable guidance for risk mitigation strategy with regard to LPG facility in design, emergency planning, resiliency, operations, and risk management.     

Hazard analysis on LPG fireball of road tanker BLEVE based on CFD simulation

In order to research the hydrocarbon fireball characteristic of LPG tanker Boiled Liquid Evaporate Vapor Explosion (BLEVE) under different conditions, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of the hydrocarbon fireballs from the LPG tanker BLEVE accidents were carried out. Several new different factors, such as the mass of fuel, inlet velocity and airflow velocity, were considered to analyze the influence on the evolution of the characteristics of the fireball and the development of the LPG tanker BLEVE accidents. Results indicate that the fireball with a greater mass of fuel radiates more heat but slower. The large longitudinal diameter of the fireball and high radiation heat flux are observed in case of a faster inlet velocity used for the same mass. The airflow was found to shorten the initial phase of the fireball effectively. Some suggestions were proposed to prevent the LPG BLEVE accidents. Analysis performed show that various parameters like fireball diameter, radiative heat flux and lifting speed of fireball can be predicted well using FDS code.     

大型LPG罐区火灾爆炸事故后果评估

针对大型LPG(液化石油气)储罐区潜在的火灾爆炸危险性，建立了喷射火、火球、UVCE爆炸和BLEVE爆炸的数学伤害模型，对其发生火灾、爆炸后人员和建筑(设备)所受到的伤害和损伤进行了定量后果评估。     

Learning from the application of nuclear probabilistic safety assessment to the chemical industry

This paper introduces the new approach of risk analysis established by the French Ministry of the Environment and develops the benefits of applying nuclear probabilistic safety assessment approaches to the chemical industry.In the aftermath of the AZF disaster in Toulouse on 21 September 2001, a new law was proposed by the French government asking for the investigation of all representative scenarios and the assessment of the probability of the resulting dangerous phenomena to demonstrate an acceptable level of safety. Therefore, any accident is investigated from a global point of view, according to its gravity and its probability.In 2000, the French Ministry of the Environment asked the Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN), and in particular its Systems and Risk Protection Assessment (SESPRI) and its Industrial Risks, Fire and Containment Assessment and Study (SERIC) departments, to conduct a Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) study of an LPG distribution facility, specially for the BLEVE scenario. This study has showed the power of PSA for defining and prioritizing actions to be carried out to improve safety of facilities; however, it requires credible data for reliability and failure of the equipment, not available in generic failure databases.Since 2007, IRSN has taken several initiatives in collaboration with operators in order to provide more precise and representative failure rates for main safety equipment, ready to use in future PSA relative to LPG plants.     

Small scale experiments on boiling liquid expanding vapor explosions: Vessel over-pressure

The boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) is a type of physical explosion that has caused massive damage in the petrochemical industry. In this paper, a study has been made of the conditions that could lead to a BLEVE. A device was built to simulate the occurrence of suddenly initiated release through a top orifice. As there is some danger in using liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in the experiments, water was used as the test fluid. The change of pressure and temperature was measured during the experiment. It was determined that two pressure peaks result after the pressure is released: the first pressure peak seems to occur because of the vapor pressure caused by the swelled two-phase layer after the initial venting, the second pressure peak is possibly due to a dynamic impact or ‘liquid hammer’ and is maintained by bubbles collapse or something like cavitation at the surface of the inner wall of the head space that occurs with the ejection of two-phase flow.Liquid heights, orifice size, and the degree of liquid superheating all have differing influence on the magnitude of the measured over-pressure; the greater the degree of liquid superheat, the stronger the over-pressure; smaller opening areas delay and reduce the magnitude of the first over-pressure; at fill levels between 60% and 80%, the impact pressure appears more violent than with other fills.     

BLEVE火球热辐射及其影响评价模型介绍

高压液化易燃、易爆化学品储罐易发生BLEVE,引起热辐射,会造成周围人员伤亡和设备损坏.介绍了BLEVE火球热辐射及其影响模型,通过该模型可以计算BLEVE火球的尺寸、持续时间、升空高度、热辐射通量及预测暴露在BLEVE火球热辐射通量下人的致死概率.     

LPG罐区事故后果模拟与风险控制研究

LPG在储存过程中,可能由于泄漏或灾难性破裂等原因引发火灾、爆炸、中毒等重大事故。首先根据两类危险源理论,辨识与分析了LPG罐区的危险源及其危险性。然后,利用事件树方法,建立了瞬时泄漏和连续泄漏后果模型。通过研究典型的事故后果计算与模拟分析方法、风险确定与表示方法,借助PHAST和LEAK系统模拟分析与计算了某LPG罐区发生泄漏后的事故后果及其影响,并绘制了个人风险等值线和社会风险F-N曲线。最后,根据分析结果提出了多项针对性的风险控制措施。