我国草地退化的区域特征及其可持续利用管理

本文对我国草地退化的现状及其主要驱动因素作了分析，并根据草地退化的形式、原因等划分为六个草地退化区域。针对各区域的退化草地特征，作者提出了我国草地资源可持续利用与管理的宏观对策，对实现我国草地畜牧业可持续发展具有一定的指导意义。     

中国粮食生产潜力开发与资源,环境协调发展思路及对策

本文在分析我国粮食生产赖以发展的资源和环境条件的基础上,结合农业生产和科学研究实践,认为制约我国粮食生产持续增长的主要生产性因素是资源短缺及环境问题,出路在于提高自然资源及物质投入的利用效率,进而提出了我国粮食生产潜力开发与资源、环境协调发展的基本思路和途径,认为现阶段的主要任务是提高粮食单产。最后根据我国资源环境及经济状况的区域分布特征,提出东、中、西三大经济带粮食生产持续增长的相应对策。     

1981～2015年我国粮食主产区气候生产潜力的时空分异与演化

粮食主产区是关系我国粮食安全的粮食生产核心区域,研究气候变化下粮食主产区粮食气候生产潜力的时空分异与演化特征具有重要意义.基于我国粮食主产区13个省份341个气象台的日测气象数据,应用逐级订正的机制法模型对1981～2015年间粮食气候生产潜力及其时空演化进行分析,研究得出:(1)我国粮食主产区年平均粮食气候生产潜力为9 171.17 kg/hm2,时间维度上的演化路径总体平稳,而我国粮食主产区光合生产潜力呈下降趋势,光温生产潜力呈上升趋势,光、温、水气候因子变动对粮食生产的综合影响较小;(2)光照影响下光合生产潜力呈"西北高东南低"特征,光、温、水气候因子层层叠加下粮食气候生产潜力出现空间重组,粮食主产区粮食气候生产潜力自东南向西北递减的地理分异特征显著,长江中下游平原和成都平原为高值区,气候条件优越,平原地形利于耕种;(3)粮食主产区粮食气候生产潜力空间分布演化呈现高值区范围缩小、低值区范围保持、中间值地区空间差异弱化的特征.     

论江西省田塍资源及其开发利用

田塍是耕地资源的重要组成部分。江西地处长江中下游南岸，田塍资源丰富，条件优越，具有很大的生产潜力。本文分析了江西田塍资源的现状和特点，阐述了开发利用田塍资源的必要性和优越性；提出了开发利用江西田塍资源的若干建议。     

天然草地退化的社会经济原因与可持续利用对策--以甘肃省肃南县为例

天然草地是人类生存和发展的重要物质基础，又是重要的生态屏障。长期以来。天然草地因疏于管理与保护．加之不合理的放牧利用．致使我国天然草地陷于面积缩减．草地组成退化．生产力下降．草地生境日趋恶化的困境．草原退化已成为我国重大的资源和环境问题之一。本文以祁连山区的肃南县为例，通过对天然草地退化现状的调查研究．剖析了天然草地退化的社会经济原因。通过分析我们认为．草地退化虽然是自然因素和人为因素共同作用的结果。但是制度不完善．过度放牧．农户经营封闭、生产结构单一等人为因素才是造成草地生态急剧退化的主要原因。并依此为依据，提出了完善草原法体系、加强管理、创新草业发展镧度等天然草地可持续利用对策。     

基于栅格的中国一季稻生产潜力研究

水稻在我国粮食安全和农业发展中地位重要，其中一季稻又是中国播种面积最大、分布最广泛、产量最大的水稻类型，科学估算一季稻生产潜力，对于合理制定水稻发展战略，挖掘水稻增产潜力，保证稻谷生产能力具有重要意义。该文利用国际上广泛采用的农业生态区模型，在地理信息系统技术支持下，将土地利用数据、作物属性数据进行从微观到宏观的综合集成，对我国一季稻光合生产潜力、光温生产潜力、光温水生产潜力以及包括土壤立地条件、质地、养分等在内的土地生产潜力及其空间分布进行1km×1km栅格尺度的估算和评价。研究结果表明，我国各农业生态区一季稻生产潜力存在明显差异，各农业生态区生产潜力具有自身的特点和优势，这与目前我国一季稻生产与布局基本相符。在此基础上提出了提高我国一季稻生产潜力，保障粮食安全的建议和措施，为中国农业生产和水稻发展战略提供了基础信息和科学依据。     

扬州市土地资源潜力及开发利用研究

扬州市土地平坦、肥沃，光热水资源充足，区位条件优越，有利于开发利用，但目前土地资源潜力尚未充分发挥，通过模型计算，说明土地资源还有较大的生产潜力．提出了改善水土等生态条件及耕作制度，增强作物光合作用强度及开垦荒地等途径，提高土地资源的生产率和利用率，充分发挥土地资源生产潜力。     

青海省自然环境、人口容量探讨

本文通过对青海省自然地理环境及不同类型土地资源生产潜力分析基础上,按不同的生活水平指标,对青海省人口容量进行了初步定量探讨,并就提高人口容量提出了措施与对策。     

河西地区草地建设的现实思考

本文介绍了河西草地资源的空间分布与不同等级面积统计 ,客观地分析了草地“三化”的主导诱因在不同区域上的差异表现 ,突出了河西地区整体荒漠化的严峻现实。并进一步从生态恢复的规律要求、草地独特的生态环境效益、草地建设的相对低成本 ,及草产业的广阔市场前景等方面 ,阐述了河西进行草地建设的现实意义 ,提出了一些独到的见解     

陕西渭南地区土地生产潜力及其人口承载量

本文以多年大量的资源考察、经济统计资料为依据,运用系统动力学方法,通过建立包括土地资源、水资源和种植业、畜牧业、渔业等为主的土地生产潜力模型及人口发展预测模型,对未来40年渭南地区不同投入状况下土地生产潜力及其不同消费水平下的人口承载量,作了趋势性定量分析和预测,并得出渭南地区具有较大的土地潜在人口支持能力的基本结论。     

1996～2015年云贵川草地生态系统生产力的时空格局

云贵川草地是中国草地的重要组成部分，在我国生态文明建设和响应全球气候变化中具有重要的地位，分析其净初级生产力（NPP）变化格局具有重要意义。利用研究区的AVHRR、MODIS遥感影像等数据及周边地区的气象资料，结合改进的CASA模型，对云贵川地区草地1996～2015年20 a间的NPP及草地植被相关生态特征进行估算，并对其时空特征及影响因素进行分析。结果表明：（1）20 a间云贵川草地NDVI值变化规律性明显，97.18%的草地面积年平均NDVImax呈现增加趋势。（2）20 a间云贵川草地NPP总体上呈现出“西北低、西南高、东部居中”的空间格局，年均NPP值为420.85 gC·m-2。 （3）时间格局上，20 a间整个云贵川区域逐年平均NPP值虽然有一定的波动性，但仍以7.2322 gC·m-2·a-1的速率在增加。20 a间夏季NPP平均值最高，为160.25 gC·m-2；春季次之，NPP平均值为 109.10 gC·m-2；秋季与春季相比，NPP值稍低，为106.10 gC·m-2；冬季最低，为54.03 gC·m-2。     

Possible future trade-offs between agriculture, energy production, and biodiversity conservation in North Dakota

In this study, we describe a spatially explicit scenario analysis of global change effects on the potential future trade-offs and conflicts between agriculture, energy generation, and grassland and wetland conservation in North Dakota (ND), USA. Integrated scenarios combining global policy, oil security, and climate change were applied to North Dakota using a spatial multi-criteria analysis shell. Spatial data describing climate changes and grassland, wetland, cropland, and energy distributions were used to characterize the geographical environment. The final multi-criteria framework examined the potential trade-offs between climate change, agricultural expansion, and energy generation resulting from global change scenarios on one hand, and the current footprint of wetlands and grasslands for six regions of ND that capture the major climate gradients and differences in land use. The results suggest that the tension between regional climate changes that may limit agricultural expansion, and global changes in food and energy security and commodity prices that favor agricultural expansion, may focus a zone of potential pressure on grasslands and wetland conversion in central ND and the Prairie Pothole Region. The balance between conservation programs, commodity prices, and land parcel productivity may determine grassland conversion, while wetland outcomes may almost totally depend upon regional climate change.     

Impacts of snow disaster on meat production and adaptation: an empirical analysis in the yellow river source region

The Yellow River source region is located in the hinterland of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, and has a sensitive response to global change due to its unique cryosphere processes. Any slight changes in natural elements and human activity can have a magnified effect on grassland ecosystem, animal husbandry, and pastoral livelihoods since its economy is exclusively dominated by grassland animal husbandry. Because snow disaster has been one of the major natural disasters in the source region, it is crucial to explore the economic impact of snow disaster on animal husbandry and identify effective adaptation measures. A nonlinear model of meat production was established in relation to snow disaster, grassland productivity, and disaster prevention by introducing a snow level index, and selecting three key indicators of grassland productivity and disaster prevention, including grass growing season precipitation concentration, sown grassland area, and warm barn area. This is an inverse of negative correlation, less meat when there is more snow. Per unit increase in snow level in the source region led to a decrease of 0.213 units in meat production. However, production losses caused by the snow disaster could be effectively suppressed by the increase in scale and intensity of sown grassland and warm barn construction. Per unit increase in sown grassland and warm barn area led to an increase of 0.240 and 0.610 units in meat production, respectively. The effects of sown grassland and warm barn area in reducing snow damage at different snow levels were analyzed. Snow disaster adaptation in the source region should include acceleration of the construction of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation system, to ensure balanced forage supply between winter and spring, to prioritize the development of warm barn, and reduce the proportion of self-financed construction warm barn to encourage active participation of pastoralists, and to develop insurance mechanism for livestock.     

Climate change adaptation approaches with nomadic culture characteristics in Inner Mongolia grassland in China

Climate change adaptation is an important part of addressing climate warming. Inner Mongolia grassland is a sensitive and vulnerable area of climate and an important region for adaptation to climate change. New climate change adaptation approaches with nomadic culture characteristics should be exploded in the context of climate warming. In this paper, the different utilization pattern of grassland in different regions, the different modes of production and management and historical culture were analyzed first in Nenjiang–West Liaohe plain and Ke’erqin region, Inner Mongolia Plateau and Ordos Plateau. Then, nomadic culture on the grassland was discussed from the productivity to biodiversity, from local livestock variety to resource-used system. Finally, new approaches of climate change adaptation with inheriting the essence of nomadic culture were proposed, including protecting biodiversity and using resources reasonably, performing a practice of grazing suspension–rotational grazing system, fencing degenerated grassland to facilitate its growth, founding new farming and husbandry system on the grassland, and establishing an incentive mechanism favorable to grassland and ethical cultural protection.     

Risk Assessment of Carbon Sequestration for Terrestrial Ecosystems in China

Climate change will alter the capacity of carbon sequestration,and the risk assessment of carbon sequestration for terrestrial ecosystems will be helpful to the decision-making for climate change countermeasures and international climate negotiations.Based on the net ecosystem productivity of terrestrial ecosystems simulated by Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model,each grid of the risk criterion was set by time series trend analysis.Then the risks of carbon sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems were investigated.The results show that,in the IPCCSRES-B2 climate scenario,climate change will bring risks of carbon sequestration,and the high-risk level will dominate terrestrial ecosystems.The risk would expand with the increase of warming degree.By the end of the long-term of this century,about 60% of the whole country will face the risk;Northwest China,mountainous areas in Northeast China,middle and lower reaches plain of Yangtze River areas,Southwest China and Southeast China tend to be extremely vulnerable.Risk levels in most regions are likely to grow with the increase of warming degree,and this increase will mainly occur during the near-term to mid-term.Northwest China will become an area of high risks,and deciduous coniferous forests,temperate mixed forests and desert grassland tend to be extremely vulnerable.     

中国旅游业碳生产率区域差异及其格局演变:1995—2014

利用"自下而上"法核算1995—2014年中国大陆30个省(市、区)旅游业碳生产率,采用标准差、变异系数等指标衡量旅游业碳生产率区域差异,并通过空间自相关分析探讨中国旅游业碳生产率区域差异格局演变特征。结果表明:1995—2014年中国旅游业碳生产率总体呈增长趋势,但增长幅度不大,其年均增长率为2.07%,旅游业碳生产率具体数值由1995年的1.120 1万元/t增长至2014年的1.653 0万元/t;旅游业碳生产率区域差异明显,但区域绝对差异和区域相对差异均逐步缩小;旅游业碳生产率空间分布不均,总体呈东高西低的空间格局;旅游业碳生产率的空间分布存在显著正空间自相关性,以及局部的不连续性;旅游业高碳生产率集聚区域主要分布在华北地区,以北京、天津、河北为主要代表;旅游业低碳生产率集聚区域主要分布在西北地区,以新疆、青海和陕西为主要代表;中国旅游业碳生产率整体水平较低,多数省区位于旅游业低碳生产率行列,研究期内旅游业低碳生产率的区域重心逐渐由西部向中部转移。基于上述结论,本文提出针对性建议:政府应制定低碳旅游相关的系列标准规范、行动方案以及保障性政策等,同时应加大对先进低碳技术和低碳设备的引进与推广;各省区应秉持低碳发展理念并将其融入目的地开发与管理之中;旅游企业应积极利用新能源、新材料和新技术,研发低碳旅游系列产品与服务;加大宣传生态环保理念,引导旅游者树立低碳旅游意识,优先选择低碳旅游景区和低碳出行方式,自觉抵制高碳排旅游活动。     

Temporal and spatial characteristics of dust storms in the Xilingol grassland, northern China, during 1954–2007

Temporal and spatial characteristics of dust storms in the Xilingol grassland of northern China were explored in this paper, based on data of dust storms from the China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System. During the period of 1954–2007, the total dust storm events (DSE) for the Xilingol grassland decreased from the 1960s to the 1990s, and abnormally increased in the 2000s with clear inter-annual and inter-decadal variations as well as spatial differences. The annual mean DSE in the northwest part was generally more than those in the southeast part of Xilingol grassland, with the DSE increasing significantly in the northwestern part of Xilingol grassland in 2000s. The wind speed has a weak correlation with frequency, duration time, and intensity of DSE during the last decades. The influence of spring vegetation condition on the frequency of DSE should be given more attention, especially in the northwest part of the Xilingol grassland. The threshold wind speeds of DSE in different sub-regions of the study area range between 7.0 and 12.8 m/s. Maximum 10-min average wind speeds during DSE tended to decline between 1980 and 2007. The abnormally frequent and strong DSE occurring with lower wind speeds in the 2000s were probably closely related to local vegetation change and serious desertification.     

干旱冲击下草地租赁对草场退化及牧户生计的影响

近年来草地租赁市场在牧区出现并逐渐发展。然而,作为调节牧户资源的市场制度,其对草原社会生态的影响莫衷一是。Agent-based model(ABM)是社会科学领域先进的定量分析模型,可用来模拟复杂环境中主体间的交互关系及作用结果。本文首先在理论上分析了内蒙古牧区“人-草-畜”关系,揭示了牧区社会生态的复杂性,之后在此基础上,运用ABM模拟草地租赁中“人-草-畜”关系,通过调节干旱发生概率及牧户草地出租意愿,分析干旱冲击下草地租赁对草场退化及牧户生计的影响。为了更合理地展示和模拟牧区实际,本文结合2015—2016年内蒙古锡林郭勒盟、呼伦贝尔市的调研数据和部分文献、年报数据,对ABM中相关的参数进行设定,构建了用于模拟干旱冲击下牧区草地租赁的模型:①控制干旱概率,调节出租意愿的模型结果表明,在一定的干旱冲击下,草地租赁是一个有效的制度安排,可以缓解干旱导致的草地退化,提高牧区草场的总体生产力,并提高参与租赁户的生计水平。②控制出租意愿,调节干旱发生概率的模型结果则表明,当干旱加剧时,仅有单一的草地租赁制度无法阻止草场退化和牧户收入下降,草地生态及牧户收入仍然会受到干旱冲击的较大影响。因此,完善草地租赁市场,可在一定程度上缓解干旱冲击对草地退化的影响,提高牧户收入。但为了保障牧区社会生态的可持续性,还需发展牧业合作社和草地合作小组等其他制度。ABM可以通过对现实变量的参数化来模拟现实状况,对指导类似草原牧区等存在多个主体交互关系的社区实践具有重要作用。     

Variability in crop yields associated with climate anomalies in China over the past three decades

We used simple and explicit methods, as well as improved datasets for climate, crop phenology and yields, to address the association between variability in crop yields and climate anomalies in China from 1980 to 2008. We identified the most favourable and unfavourable climate conditions and the optimum temperatures for crop productivity in different regions of China. We found that the simultaneous occurrence of high temperatures, low precipitation and high solar radiation was unfavourable for wheat, maize and soybean productivity in large portions of northern, northwestern and northeastern China; this was because of droughts induced by warming or an increase in solar radiation. These climate anomalies could cause yield losses of up to 50 % for wheat, maize and soybeans in the arid and semi-arid regions of China. High precipitation and low solar radiation were unfavourable for crop productivity throughout southeastern China and could cause yield losses of approximately 20 % for rice and 50 % for wheat and maize. High temperatures were unfavourable for rice productivity in southwestern China because they induced heat stress, which could cause rice yield losses of approximately 20 %. In contrast, high temperatures and low precipitation were favourable for rice productivity in northeastern and eastern China. We found that the optimum temperatures for high yields were crop specific and had an explicit spatial pattern. These findings improve our understanding of the impacts of extreme climate events on agricultural production in different regions of China.     

鄱阳湖湿地出露草洲分布特征的遥感研究

利用鄱阳湖区46景不同时相的Landsat MSS/TM/ETM+遥感影像，分别提取鄱阳湖的出露草洲范围，并假定只要一个时期是出露草洲就属于草洲，形成鄱阳湖湿地草洲潜在分布图，并分析鄱阳湖湿地出露草洲的分布特征。研究结果表明：(1)利用出露草洲面积与星子水文站观测水位得到二者的关系，表明出露草洲分布及范围受水位的影响显著，高水位时，大部分草洲被水淹没；低水位时，出露草洲面积大。此外，也受气象因素、草洲植物生长期的水位过程等因素影响；(2)出露草洲面积的季节变化明显：随水位的升高而减少，随水位的下降而增加；在植被生长期的春季和夏季，出露草洲面积逐渐减少，在秋季和冬季，出露草洲面积却逐渐增加；出露草洲面积最大在1月，最小在7月；(3)鄱阳湖潜在草洲的面积达2 441 km2，草洲可能出现的范围占整个鄱阳湖面积的69.5%