Usage of human reliability quantification methods.

Human reliability quantification (HRQ) methods are becoming increasingly important in risk and accident assessment in systems these terms are usually related to (hi-tech industrial systems, including nuclear and chemical plants). These methods began to intensively develop after numerous accidents caused by human error or inadequate activity of people who controlled and managed complex technological processes. For already existing systems, but also for new ones, it is important to assess the possibility of an accident. Determination of possible preventive activities, which include the influence of human error on the safety of a system, is also required. These are the main goals of the HRQ method. Using Absolute Probability Judgment (APJ) and Success Likelihood Index Methods (SLIM) HRQ techniques in control and management centers in electro-power systems in Belgrade and railway traffic in Nis (both in Serbia and Montenegro) are shown in this paper.     

基于AHP-Fuzzy的高处坠落危险性评价研究

高处坠落事故在建筑安全生产事故中所占的比率最大。预防和控制高处坠落事故始终是建筑业应解决的重要问题,高处坠落危险性评价是预防与控制高处坠落事故的重要手段。以高处坠落风险为研究对象,通过对高处作业＂人—机—环境—管理＂复杂系统进行分析,建立生产人员素质因素、生产设备因素、环境条件因素、安全管理因素等4个大类和23个小类的危险性评价指标体系。在层次分析法和模糊综合评价法等研究基础上,构建了高处坠落风险的AHP-Fuzzy评价模型,确定了各层次的权重集。对给出的实例进行评价,评价结果符合实际情况。结果表明,基于AHP-Fuzzy的高处坠落危险性评价方法是可靠与实用的,并对高处坠落危险性的评判有指导意义。     

Associations between risk perception and safety

The relationship between perception of risk and involvement in accidents is receiving increasing attention in the offshore oil industry. A self-completion questionnaire survey was carried out among employees on twelve offshore oil installations in 1994.¹ The number of respondents were 1138. Employee evaluations of the status of safety and contingency measures were affected by physical working conditions, attitudes towards safety and accident prevention work as well as management commitment and involvement in safety promotion. These factors were also related to job stress, perceived risk and risk behaviour. There was a significant positive correlation between perceived risk and risk behaviour, but risk perception was not found to predict risk behaviour. Risk behaviour affected accidents as well as near-misses. The possibility that safety cannot be improved by changing individual risk perception is discussed.     

National culture and safe work behaviour of construction workers in Pakistan

It is widely accepted that unsafe behaviour is intrinsically linked to workplace accidents. A positive correlation exists between workers’ safe behaviour and safety climate on construction sites. Construction workers’ attitude towards safety is influenced by their perception of risk, management, safety rules and procedures. Pakistan, a developing country, is currently experiencing a strong growth in its construction activities. Unfortunately, the enforcement of safety regulations in Pakistan is not widespread. Indeed, some relevant regulations are both outdated and irrelevant to daily construction operations. This paper investigates local construction workers’ behaviour, perception and attitude toward safety, and attempts to link the research findings to the influence of national culture. A three-part interview-based questionnaire survey has identified that the majority of workers have a good degree of risk awareness and self-rated competence. Additionally, workers’ intentional behaviour was empirically explained by their attitudes towards their own and management’s safety responsibilities, as well as their perception of the risk they are generally exposed to in their workplace. The paper also reveals that workers operating in a more collective and higher uncertainty avoidance environment, are more likely to have safety awareness and beliefs, which can exhibit safer on-site behaviour.     

Risky driving and the perception of motorcycle accident causes among chinese motorcyclists in Hong Kong

Objective: The primary purposes of this study were to explore the relationship between risk-taking acts while driving motorcycles and perceived causes of motorcycle accidents, as well as their contribution to active involvement in traffic accidents among Chinese motorcyclists in Hong Kong. Active involvement means the riders was likely at fault for the crash. Methods: A total of 774 motorcyclists were recruited, of whom 292 had been involved in active motorcycle accident in the previous 3?years. All were asked to fill in a questionnaire, which was developed to assess their risk-taking acts while driving a motorcycle and perception of motorcycle accident causes. Results: The results of the study revealed 3 dimensions of accident causes, namely, driving-related, environment-related, and belief-related causes. These motorcycle accident causes were correlated with risk-taking acts while driving a motorcycle. A multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that risk-taking acts while driving motorcycles (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 1.036, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.020-1.052), perception of driving-related cause (adjusted OR: 0.941, 95% CI: 0.916-0.967), and belief-related cause (adjusted OR: 1.134, 95% CI: 1.088-1.182) were significant factors contributing to involvement in active traffic accidents by motorcycle riders after controlling for concurrent demographic variables. Conclusions: The study highlights that perceived causes of motorcycle accidents are multidimensional, including those areas related to driving, the environment, and beliefs. It substantiates previous studies that a higher degree of driving-related risk perception is related to a lower degree of risk-taking acts while driving. Further research is needed to understand why belief-related causes, sometimes called superstitions, lead riders to believe that it is beyond their ability to affect accident causation and prevention.     

Learning from accidents – What more do we need to know?

A model of experience feedback (the CHAIN model) that emphasizes the whole chain from initial reporting to preventive measures is used to identify important research needs in the field of learning from accidents. Based on the model, six quality criteria for experience feedback after an accident or incident are presented. Research on experience feedback from accidents is reviewed. The overall conclusion is that the discipline of experience feedback has not been sufficiently self-reflective. The process of experience feedback can and should be applied to experience feedback itself, but that is rarely done. Evaluation studies are needed that provide hard (evidence-based) information about the effects of various methodologies and organizational structures. Four types of studies are particularly important for the development of evidence-based accident investigation practices: (1) studies of the effects and the efficiency of different accident investigation methods, (2) studies of the dissemination of conclusions from accident investigation, (3) follow-up studies of the extent to which accident investigation reports give rise to actual preventive measures, and (4) studies of the integration of experience feedback systems into overall systems of risk management.     

基于24Model-AHP的建筑施工高处坠落事故原因研究

为预防建筑施工高处坠落事故,本文采用事故致因“2-4”模型,研究2012-2018年50起高处坠落事故案例,对导致事故的根源原因、根本原因、间接原因和直接原因进行定性分析,并使用SPSS软件分析原因之间的相关性,同时根据事故原因构建递阶层次模型,计算出其权重值并进行排序,从而得到影响事故发生的关键因素。结果表明:安全管理制度和操作规程不健全、员工的安全意识不高和违章操作以及安全防护措施不到位是导致事故发生的主要因素,也是事故预防重点。研究成果对确保施工过程安全,制定相应防范措施有重要意义。     

不良安全文化的特征:事故报告再分析

通过对高风险组织安全管理及事故的研究,对事故报告进行文化意义上的编码分析,揭示导致事故发生的不良安全文化特征。该报告再分析的材料是厂内档案可查的事故报告61份,根据其中55份事故报告的专家编码分析结果,得到了不良安全文化的特征是较低水平的管理对安全的承诺、较差的安全遵守、缺乏应急管理的有效措施、沟通与协调障碍。通过聚类分析,安全文化的各因素可以进一步归为两大类安全促进因素与安全保健因素。从文化的角度来看,分别对应着对组织的承诺和对人的承诺两个维度。     

Fatal workplace accidents in outsourced operations in the manufacturing industry

Several studies have indicated that outsourcing increases the risk of accidents and presented some explanations for this phenomenon. For example, higher accident proneness of external employees has been presented, but the common causes of accidents have not been reviewed in depth. This paper provides information about typical accidents, the contributing factors, and preventive measures of fatal occupational accidents that occurred in outsourced manufacturing tasks. This paper also compares whether these factors differ from accidents that occurred when tasks were performed in-house in the manufacturing industry. The focus is on operations executed in the factory area for or by an organization operating in the manufacturing business. The accident analysis is based on information gathered from accident reports for fatal workplace accidents that occurred in Finland during 1999–2008. At outsourced operations in manufacturing, accidents occur most commonly when installations or work preparations are being performed. According to the reports, dangerous work practices and insufficient hazard identification most frequently contributed to accidents. In order to prevent typical accidents, e.g., occupational instructional and guidance, hazard identification, work practices, supervision, and task planning should be improved. Statistical differences between outsourced and in-house operations were also found, mainly within the contributing factors. Therefore, the safety of outsourced manufacturing operations should be considered in detail in order to prevent accidents and ensure occupational safety also when operated with other performers.     

基于事故机理和管理因素的地铁坍塌事故分析——以杭州地铁坍塌事故为实证

从技术角度分析地铁坍塌事故发生的机理,以安全事故致因层次为基础,将管理因素分为4部分,即人员因素、环境因素、材料因素和设备因素;进一步分析地铁坍塌事故发生的原因,构建地铁坍塌事故致因的鱼刺图;实证分析杭州地铁坍塌事故的致因,并构建杭州地铁坍塌事故致因的鱼刺图;在实证分析基础上,从地铁施工前与地铁施工时两时间段,针对人员因素、环境因素、材料因素和设备因素4方面管理因素,提出地铁坍塌事故的防范措施。以事故机理研究为基础,以管理因素研究为核心是研究地铁坍塌事故的必由之路,将对地铁工程的安全管理有一定的指导意义。     

A new accident model for engineering safer systems

New technology is making fundamental changes in the etiology of accidents and is creating a need for changes in the explanatory mechanisms used. We need better and less subjective understanding of why accidents occur and how to prevent future ones. The most effective models will go beyond assigning blame and instead help engineers to learn as much as possible about all the factors involved, including those related to social and organizational structures. This paper presents a new accident model founded on basic systems theory concepts. The use of such a model provides a theoretical foundation for the introduction of unique new types of accident analysis, hazard analysis, accident prevention strategies including new approaches to designing for safety, risk assessment techniques, and approaches to designing performance monitoring and safety metrics.     

水上交通事故分析研究进展

为更好地开展水上交通事故分析研究,提高我国水上交通安全水平,从船舶风险评估与事故预测、事故分析以及事故及通航安全数据的组织与数据库建立3个方面对国内外的相关研究进行论述和分析。提出以建立水上交通事故时空数据平台为基础,结合数据挖掘和安全工程的理论方法研究事故发生机理,评估事故风险,并将研究事故模拟再现技术作为事故分析的重要技术手段。     

基于“2-4模型”的化工生产事故原因分析

为进一步研究化工生产事故发生的原因,运用“2-4模型”对从安全管理网等网站收集的125起化工生产安全事故进行分析,结果表明对于事故的直接原因方面,作业人员的不安全动作主要表现在违规操作和无证上岗,管理人员的不安全动作主要表现在其工作不认真等方面,不安全物态最主要的是设备年久失修。对于事故的间接原因,主要表现在安全意识不够、安全知识不足、安全习惯不佳3方面。事故的根本原因则主要表现在缺乏安全培训等方面。为制定化工生产事故预防措施提供了依据。     

城市公共设施安全事故责任主体的辨析

城市公共设施的安全已经影响到社会的正常运转及人们生活的安定。我国大多数城市的公共设施建设与管理比较薄弱，安全事故层出不穷。为了减少事故的发生率，我们必须分析事故的本质原因以及找出事故责任单位，并采取有效的预防措施，将事故控制在萌芽状态。     

Exploring the organisational preconditions for occupational accidents in food industry: A qualitative approach

The continuing high frequency of occupational accidents in the Swedish food industry calls for new approaches to better understand the underlying factors. In the present study, 54 accidents involving hand injuries were investigated from the operators’ perspective, to explore the organisational preconditions. In-depth interviews were conducted with operators and their supervisors, and 24 of these interviews were analysed using the grounded theory method. The core category ‘safety as a process’ was identified encompassing the perception of the process of the accident at operative level and organisational preconditions that increased the risk of occupational accidents. These preconditions were open factors: deficiencies in technical/physical environment and work organisation; and concealed factors: insufficient communication and learning, a high level of responsibility in combination with low control, conflicting goals and a gap between procedures and practice. These preconditions lead to risk acceptance, resignation towards improved safety and normalisation of risk. Through the analysis a five-step hypothesis was empirically generated.     

地铁屏蔽门安全系统分析及改进

地铁屏蔽门夹人事故时有发生,对其事故树进行分析获得导致事故发生的基本事件重要度排序,结果表明,安全系统与警示装置的不完善是造成事故的主要因素。由此提出对红外探测系统和警示灯系统进行改进以减少地铁屏蔽门事故。     

Impact of safety attitude,safety knowledge and safety leadership on chemical industry workers’ risk perception based on Structural Equation Modelling and System Dynamics

In chemical industry, major accidents occur occasionally. Past research has demonstrated that risk perception was relevant to safety as it might affect the behavior, which could exert influence on the probability of accidents. It is important to adjust workers' risk perception to reduce accidents in chemical industry. To achieve this goal, some key influencing factors of workers’ risk perception of were identified from 3 aspects including safety attitude, safety knowledge and safety leadership. This was accomplished by gathering empirical data from 287 workers employed in 6 Chemical plants in Jiangsu, China. The model of influencing factors of risk perception for workers was established based on Structural Equation Modelling (SEM), and the path coefficients and weights were analyzed by the SEM. On that basis, the System Dynamics (SD) model of risk perception for workers was established. The study findings revealed safety attitude and safety leadership have a direct positive impact on perception of risk probability and perception of risk severity, safety knowledge has a direct positive impact on perception of risk severity, while safety knowledge has no direct positive impact on perception of risk probability. The findings of the study can provide theoretical supports and method guidance for adjusting the risk perception of workers in chemical industry.     

油库火灾爆炸事故多米诺效应定量评价

引入多米诺效应定义,介绍多米诺效应定量评价的方法。结合具体实例对油库进行火灾爆炸事故的风险分析,给出事故多米诺效应定量评价的具体程序。通过油库火灾爆炸事故多米诺效应评价,得出油库事故的升级因素和导致事故扩大的途径,并指出相应的多米诺效应控制措施。与传统的评价方法相比,多米诺效应评价方法可预测次生事故发生情况和发生概率及后果,从而可以有针对性地采取相应的预防措施,预防事故多米诺效应,降低次生灾害的发生率,提高油库的本质安全程度。     

Determinants of safety priorities in transport – The effect of personality,worry, optimism,attitudes and willingness to pay

Much research within risk has investigated risk perception and how risk behaviour is understood by the public. One goal of risk research is to understand how people perceive and interpret risk to facilitate safe behaviour. This is seen as important for many different reasons, one being because policy measures might be more effective when they address and understand individual differences in beliefs and perceptions of a target group (Steg, L., Sievers, I., 2000. Cultural theory and individual perceptions of environmental risks. Environment and Behavior 32 (2), 250–269). The main aim of this study was to investigate what is most important in regard to safety priorities. Three personality assets – anxiety, excitement-seeking and trust – were first examined. Further factors were driver optimism, worrying about transport risks, willingness to pay to increase safety, and negative attitudes toward traffic rules (as a driver). The results are based upon two questionnaire surveys carried out among a representative sample of the Norwegian public in 2004. The results showed that worry was the most important predictor of safety priorities. In addition, negative attitudes towards rules were also found to have an impact on priority. The proposed model explained 44% of the variance of safety priority. This knowledge gives additional information to improve the success of interventions because it will develop the ability to target those who consider safety to be of low priority and guide them to modify their attitudes. This may in turn increase their value of safety.     

Simulating the relative influence of tire,vehicle and driver factors on forward collision accident rates

Introduction: There is currently a strong focus within the automotive industry centered on traffic safety, with topics such as distracted driving, accident avoidance technologies, and autonomous vehicles. These papers tend to focus on the possible improvements from a single factor. However, there are many factors that are present in each accident, and it is important to understand the influence of each factor on the relative accident risk in order to identify the most effective approaches for improving driver safety. Rear-end accidents tend to be the most common accident type with approximately 1.8 M cases, or 31% of all accidents, in 2012, according to NHTSA. Of the rear-end accident scenarios, approximately 18–23% occur on wet surfaces. Method: A Monte Carlo Forward Collision Simulation models the conditions of a wet rear-end accident and estimates the relative impact of various vehicle collision parameters. The model takes distributions of these parameters as inputs, and outputs a risk of collision relative to a known reference case. The parameters that can be studied include: tire grip level, road grip level, vehicle velocity, following distances, and the presence of vehicle technologies (ABS, FCW & AEB). Distributions of some of these parameters have been improved thanks to Naturalistic Driving Study data from SHRP2. Results: This study shows that these vehicle systems have a large impact on safety and can change the amount of influence attributed to other parameters such as tire grip levels. As the use of automated vehicle systems expands, so will the influence of tire grip performance levels on collision risks. Practical Applications: It is more important than ever for consumers and auto manufacturers to consider tire performance levels. Therefore, the tire industry should continue to focus on wet grip as a key performance related to safety and should strive to continue to improve tire performance.