海外石油天然气行业的承包商安全管理

出于技术和经济上的考虑,中国石油海外勘探开发公司（CNODC）作为中国石油天然气集团公司（CNPC）海外油气业务投资主体一直将大部分核心业务外包给不同专业领域的承包商。由于石油天然气行业相对较高的安全环保风险、资源国用工政策限制、合作伙伴利益冲突、承包商HSE文化成熟度差异、作业公司承包商HSE管理漏洞等原因,CNODC在计划、招标、评标、合同签订、合同执行等各个阶段都面临着承包商HSE管理方面的多重挑战。为了加强对外包合同的前瞻性HSE管理和全过程HSE监督,从2007年至今CNODC通过推行承包商HSE管理强化计划,成功地完善了合同管理政策和承包商HSE管理体系,推动各海外项目公司将HSE管理重心从合同执行阶段前移到计划和招标、投标和合同签订阶段,规范了项目公司对合同执行阶段的现场监督、HSE业绩监测和考评,有效减少了承包商安全事故和环境事件,实现了CNODC与承包商HSE绩效的双赢。     

石油工程技术服务企业海外项目风险评价研究

石油工程技术服务企业海外项目是企业寻求自身发展,保持和提高经济效益的重要组成。综合采用专家咨询法和因果分析图方法识别出石油工程技术服务企业海外项目存在的市场风险、经济风险、政治风险、技术风险、自然风险、管理风险等6种风险。构建包含上述6个准则21个指标的风险评价指标体系,应用层次分析(AHP)法确定指标权重,应用模糊综合评价方法构建石油工程技术服务企业海外项目风险评价模型。运用构建的指标体系与评价模型对某石油钻探公司格鲁吉亚共和国第12区块风险进行评价实证。     

石油化工行业可接受风险水平研究

石油化工行业存在着巨大的潜在风险,为了明确该行业的风险可接受水平,制定一个合理可行的可接受风险准则极为必要.本文在对国内外风险可接受水平研究的基础上,系统分析了国内外有关标准,对生命风险水平、经济风险水平和环境风险水平确定的基本思想进行了详尽阐述,分别给出了3种风险的可接受水平公式,提出了确定石化行业可接受风险水平的方法,需同时满足可接受生命风险、经济风险和环境风险.     

How do different process options and evaluation settings affect economic and environmental assessments? A case study on methyl methacrylate (MMA) production processes

We present an investigation on how economic and environmental assessment results change when different process options or evaluation settings are considered. As the main case study the production technology of methyl methacrylate (MMA) is investigated. Six commercial processes using different reaction routes are modelled and evaluated with respect to their economic and environmental performance. On these six base case models different process options and evaluation settings are considered and the resulting impacts on the assessment results are quantified. Major findings of the study are that the more decision-variables become fixed, the smaller becomes the impact of the decisions still to be taken—but not only with respect to the economic performance but also with regard to the environmental assessment result. Along the process development steps the potential impacts on the economic and environmental performance decrease to the same degree. The results obtained for the evaluation settings do not show such a systematic pattern as those for the process options. This finding indicates that decision makers face many options in the economic and especially the environmental assessment of chemical processes which might lead to quite different magnitudes in variability due to either the choice of method or the choice of method parameters. This paper demonstrates that the resulting variability might be crucial with respect to the decision making outcome.     

Ethics and fundamental principles of risk acceptance criteria

Ethics are concerned with distinguishing between what actions are “right” and “wrong” and what values are “good” and “bad”, etc. and there is a long academic tradition in discussing ethics and ethical theories. Risk acceptance criteria, on the other hand, distinguish between levels of risks that are acceptable and levels that are intolerable. In some sense, one may say that risk acceptance criteria distinguishes between “good” and “bad” systems and activities with regards to the risk they expose the society or elements of a society to and there is thus an obvious link between ethics and risk acceptance criteria or to risk management at large. However, there are few references in the literature that explores this link, and in this paper, the ethical foundation of fundamental principles of risk acceptance criteria will be elaborated upon.This paper considers some important principles for establishing risk acceptance criteria for safety critical systems and activities. The various principles and the philosophies behind them might at first sight seem contradictory and exclusive, but it is demonstrated how they may coexist in one and the same regulatory regime; They may complement each other in order to achieve the overall safety objectives of society. Then, some brief considerations of the ethical foundations for the principles will be given and some relevant examples of actual risk acceptance criteria will be given from the maritime industries. However, it is believed that the principles and discussions are of general interest and apply to all areas of technical risk and to safety regulations in a broader perspective.     

Accident investigation in the Norwegian petroleum industry - Common features and future challenges

In their regulations, the Petroleum Safety Authority Norway (PSA) states that the companies responsible for oil and gas exploration and production activities in Norway shall record and investigate accidents and serious incidents. This paper introduces a general model for the accident investigation process in the Norwegian petroleum industry, and presents some results derived from a comparative study of causal factors identified in offshore accident investigation reports from 2002 to 2006. The paper also offers a discussion of the improvement potential in the use of investigation methods. Finally, a discussion of future challenges in accident investigations is provided.     

Can public participation help managing risks from natural hazards?

Most of the mitigation measures against natural hazards can not be perfectly allocated via the common market mechanism, given their principle character of being a public good. Thus, different instruments need to be applied to retrieve their values. Economic valuation tools are one alternative to estimate preferences of individuals towards these goods. These methods are often difficult to operationalise and are not a feasible task for every single project. An alternative is offered by direct preference representation through involving affected interest groups actively in decisions. A critical question is whether the decision on protection measures can be left to public participation or should remain in the experts’ decision responsibility. It can be observed that the latter mode shows inefficiencies. In this paper, it is argued that participation could be one way to bring about the desired goal of increasing efficiency. The present work offers a discussion of the relevant political economic concepts in order to introduce the idea that participation can increase efficiency through achieving the Pareto criterion claimed in the realm of constitutional economics. Furthermore it will be shown that decision aiding tools, namely multi-criteria analysis, can integrate participation into actual decision making processes in a structured way.     

我国石油消费现状及其战略思考

石油是支撑经济发展和国防现代化的基本能源之一。在当今国际社会中 ,石油已成为世界政治、经济、军事和外交斗争的特殊武器 ,成为一国经济发展、社会稳定以及国家安全的重要保障条件。我国目前石油供需形势严峻 ,主要表现为 :石油储量接替准备不足 ,老油田稳产面临严峻形势 ;需求增长过快 ;对外依存度较高 ;运输和贮存能力较小等方面。石油的安全及其保障问题关系到我国的经济安全和国家安全 ,因此 ,有必要研究我国的石油消费现状及发展战略。笔者针对我国的石油消费现状 ,分析了目前我国石油战略中存在的问题 ,探讨了我国的石油战略。     

HSE管理中的风险分析方法——以中油国际委内瑞拉公司HSE管理经验为例

HSE管理的出发点应是预防为主。因此尽早识别风险、评估可能的风险是HSE管理的关键。风险分析最重要的是要承认：石油勘探开发活动不可能绝对安全，风险总是客观存在的。风险分析就是尽早识别、分析和评估可能的风险所在、大小和频率。风险管理就是在风险分析的基础上，采取有针对性地措施将风险消减到可接受的水平。本文在总结近年国内外HSE管理中风险分析方法的基础上，结合CNPC在委内瑞拉运行石油项目的经验，提出了一套风险分析的定性和定量方法，包括系统风险分析、节点风险分析、概率统计分析等。由于大力推广和应用这些方法，使CNPC在委内瑞拉运行石油项目9年来没有发生任何HSE大事故，被委内瑞拉国家石油公司誉为“国际石油投资者HSE工作的典范”。     

An ontology-based framework for process monitoring and maintenance in petroleum plant

In production plants, monitoring and maintaining industrial processes and emergency shutdowns are not straightforward tasks due to the large number of events and alarms which are triggered during the plant shutdown process. It is also vitally important to provide decision support to stakeholders for efficient and effective monitoring and maintenance of production process. This paper presents a novel framework and design to enhance maintenance decisions based on the knowledge gathered through the process of monitoring. This monitoring process is based on signals which are triggered during the plant safety shutdown process. We have designed and implemented a framework using an ontology and business rules to define the logical structure and operation of the petroleum plant with the objective of monitoring the cause and effect of the petroleum plant shutdown process. To enhance maintenance decisions, we have extended the ontology and the framework to ensure that decision makers have sufficient information to make the right decision at the right time. The proposed extended framework is designed, implemented and evaluated using an example petroleum production plant as a case study.     

The limits to risk aversion: Part 2: The permission point and worked examples

Part 2 extends the analysis to show that it is possible to find the “permission point”, the value of (the coefficient of relative) risk-aversion, at which decisions to sanction environmental protection are most likely to be made. The mathematical model describes the process by which the decision maker varies his risk-aversion over a range of feasible values to find the risk-aversion that will give him the greatest desire to invest in the protection system under consideration. If he can find such a risk-aversion before losing discrimination (because the system is too expensive, given its performance), he will adopt it as his “permission point” and decide in favour of the expenditure. The permission point is, of course, bounded above by the point of indiscriminate decision. A maximum Risk Multiplier calculated at the point of indiscriminate decision may be applied to the protection expenditure at monetary break-even to give the maximum, rational outlay on protection. Moreover, it is possible to model how the average UK adult should take decisions on protection to maximise his utility. Different situations will call for different values of risk-aversion, which may explain why economists have come up with differing estimates of this parameter in the past. However, a central, average risk-aversion may be calculated for the average UK adult as 0.85, which is within 4% of the value, 0.82, found from the newly reported method based on a trade-off between income and future free time, and is consistent with several recent economic estimates. Worked examples assess how much an organisation should spend on a protection scheme to prevent accidents with very large environmental consequences.     

Risk on the ramble: The international transfer of risk and vulnerability

In this paper the purpose is to discuss a concept of technology that can explain how the transfer of technology implies the risk of new failures, misuse, accidents and unhealthy workplaces. Production technologies are often transformed through a steady stream of incremental changes appropriate to their social context, and the technology will therefore gradually acquire some contextually dependent preconditions for use. These preconditions will most probably be revealed when a technology is transferred from one context to another. Thus, a technology transfer project may trigger a long process of re-innovations just to make the technology fully operational in its new context. In a transfer process, technological risks may arise due to incomplete transfer of mastering capacity; mismatch between transferred technology and the environment; transfer of latent conditions for failure; and the transformation of latent conditions or known risks when the technology is installed in a new environment. Longitudinal data from the Norwegian petroleum industry indicates that the first phases in a transfer process will create high technological risks. It will take many years before the transferred technologies are adapted to the new context and the risk level has been normalised.     

环境后规划与环境风险管理控制研究

石油、化工企业生产、贮运和控制过程中存在着严重的环境风险,将环境后规划与环境风险评价结合起来,有助于预防和控制其风险事故的发生,提高环境风险管理控制水平.     

Comparison of approaches to weighting of multiple criteria for selecting equipment to optimize performance and safety

Nowadays every piece of working equipment and tools has to comply with safety standards and laws. This study investigated multi-criteria methods for selecting working equipment in order to optimize performance and occupational safety. The multi-criteria decision-making (MDCM) method was applied to the problem of selecting optimal working equipment using four different criterion weighting approaches (direct weighting, revised Simos procedure, Fuller’s triangle and analytic hierarchy process). Groups of economic, technical and safety criteria were defined and five weighting scenarios were developed. Although the four weighting methods produced similar results, in some situations they produced different criterion weighting factors. The final output of the MCDM method was the identification of the optimal forklift in the five weighting scenarios. Although we have applied the MCDM method to a forklift selection problem, it can be applied to all sorts of working equipment in contexts where economic, technical and safety selection criteria can be identified.     

企业风险分级管控和隐患排查治理双重预防体系构建研究

安全生产双重预防机制是我国在当前安全生产形势下防止事故发生的积极探索和重要手段,双重预防机制机理的本质是有效的风险控制。为给企业安全生产双重预防机制构建与实践工作提供理论指导,从固有风险和现实风险角度研究双重预防机制的科学机理,并基于系统建模理论和方法,分析归纳了企业双重预防机制体系设计的七大要素。然后,以有效的风险控制为核心,利用霍尔三维模型及应用RBS理论与方法,并融合一系列科学、有效、实用的管理方法和工具,构建了企业双重预防机制体系模型,以指导企业安全生产双重预防体系构建工作。     

A contingency model of decision-making involving risk of accidental loss

Decision-making involving risk of accidental loss occurs in a variety of settings. The constraints of the decision settings have a strong impact on decision-making. Different decision settings may thus call for different approaches to decision support. The purpose of this paper is to propose a contingency model of decision-making involving risk of accidental loss. Based on two dimensions, (a) proximity to hazard and (b) level of authority, I identify five types of decision settings: (1) operations, (2) business management, (3) administrative and technical support functions, (4) political arenas, and (5) crisis handling. Each setting is characterised in terms of dominant constraints, dominant decision criteria, and representative decision modes.Decision-making is constrained and influenced by previous decisions, and decisions may interact in the way they influence the risk of accidental loss. The following set of concepts may help us identify ways in which safety may be affected by interactions between decisions: (1) distributed decision-making and local optimization, (2) meta-decisions, (3) absorption of uncertainty, and (4) normalization of deviance.Advice for improving decision-making can be derived from the proposed model by identifying possible problems related to each type of decision setting and each pattern of interaction between decisions. The possible problems may be used as a basis for identifying relevant functions of decision aids and to propose specific decision aids. A similar analysis may be performed with regard to the ways in which decisions may interact in their impact on safety.     

有关水环境修复技术的分析及探讨

随着人类社会的不断发展,人们生产生活活动的加剧,片面追求经济效益的工业超标排放、生活垃圾污染、恶意的植被破坏等行为造成了自然生态系统的进一步恶化,也给水生环境带来了极大破坏,人类在尝到水生环境破坏的苦果后,开始积极加强环境保护,并深入探索水生环境修复技术。基于此,本文对水环境修复相关概念及其主要技术进行了分析,以期能够进一步提升水环境治理成效,促进人与自然的和谐发展。     

Risk assessment in support to land-use planning in Europe: Towards more consistent decisions?

Recognising the importance of establishing appropriate separation distances between hazardous installations and vulnerable residential areas for mitigating the effects of industrial accidents, the European legislation for the control of major accident hazards - the so-called Seveso II Directive - calls for procedures ensuring that technical advice is taken systematically into account for land-use planning (LUP) purposes. Due to historical, administrative, cultural and other reasons, these European Union’s Member States which have consolidated procedures for addressing this issue, have employed different approaches, methods and criteria, with a potential for great divergence in the resulting land-use planning decisions. In order to address this situation and to increase consistency and ‘defendability’ of land-use planning decisions in the EU, a European Working Group has been established and is operating under the coordination of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC). This Group, consisting of experts from the EU Member States, the industry and the academia, is trying to understand the different approaches and their implications to LUP decision-making, to develop guidelines in support to these decisions and to examine data sources and tools for consistent application of risk assessment in support to LUP. This paper presents the activities of the Group, reviews the situation with respect to LUP in Europe and discusses whether a direction towards more consistent LUP decisions is being followed in Europe.     

石油野外施工作业OSH、HSE管理

长庆钻井野外施工作业队伍依据OSH，HSE管理体系的基本要求和国际通用做法，吸取与壳牌公司在长北区块的合作经验。学习国际上杜邦，阿莫科等石油公司的HSE合作案卷，翻阅了苏丹中国项目组HSE例卷，结合长庆钻井的实际情况。在野外施工作业队伍实施OSH，HSE管理，创新了17项管理技术。提升了作业队伍现场管理水平，步入与国际惯例接轨的行列，提高了经济效益。     

含油污泥石油醚浸提技术研究

采用石油醚浸提技术对含油率为50.1%的污泥进行处理,以回收原油.当温度为45 ℃,搅拌时间为5 min,水加入量为20 mL(pH值为9),石油醚加入量为9 mL时,油去除率为93.70%.采用气相-质谱(GC-MS)联用仪对石油醚浸提回收的废油进行定性分析并与原油进行了对比,证明该工艺可以有效保证回收废油的油品质量.