不同返还情景下碳税对中国经济影响及减排效果——基于动态CGE的模拟分析

本文构建了多部门递归动态可计算一般均衡模型,考虑中国经济发展和碳减排的现实情况,以征收40元/吨碳税且无税收返还为基准情景,分析了碳税对中国经济和碳强度的影响;在此基础上,本文探讨六种税收返还情景(返还清洁能源部门部分碳税、返还服务业部分碳税、返还农村和城镇居民全部碳税、减免企业所得税、减免居民所得税、减免生产税)对碳税负效应的缓解作用,同时探讨税收返还政策下碳税对中国经济增长、社会福利、农村和城镇居民收入消费、各部门产出的影响差异,并从实现2020年和2030年减排目标的角度,比较不同返还情景下碳税对碳排放量、碳强度,以及对非化石能源占一次能源消费结构变化的长期影响。研究结果表明:基准情景下,碳税对经济确实存在负效应;六种返还政策均不同程度地降低碳税负效应,同时也能够保证实现2020年的减排目标且有利于实现2030年的目标;对单一部门(清洁能源部门或服务业)部分返还碳税能够促进相应部门的产出,但力度较小,与其他政策相比影响微弱,但都能够有效地促进这两大部门的发展,因此在制定补贴政策时应当考虑行业差异性,重点扶持符合绿色发展要求的行业;对农村和城镇居民的直接返还均能增加农村和城镇居民收入,刺激了消费进而带动社会经济发展,相比部门返还政策,这一政策更为有效的提高了社会福利,但也会进一步拉大农村与城镇居民之间的收入消费差距;减免企业所得税促进企业投资和产业结构调整;减免居民所得税极大的刺激居民消费;减免生产税促进进口、拉动就业率,降低化石能源部门产出,综合来看,相对于其他返还政策,减免生产税更有效可行。     

The implications of new information and communication technologies for sustainability

This paper discusses the relationship of new information and communication technologies (ICTs) and sustainable development. It deconstructs popular myths about a sustainable information society. One myth is that telework has reduced the need to travel and hence environmental pollution. The reality is that teleworkers make up only a small share of the total workforce, telework can generate new social relationships and hence the need for more travelling, work-related travel produces only a small amount of the total carbon dioxide emissions, and that the total distance travelled per employee is constantly rising. Another myth is that information economy is weightless and dematerialized which reduces environmental impacts. The energy and resource intensities of the ICT sector are indeed lower than the one of the total economy. The ICT sector also emits less CO₂ than the total economy. But the ICT sector constitutes only a small portion of the total value added and fossil fuel combustion is still the dominant activity of modern industrial economies. Some stakeholders argue that virtual products allow resource, energy, and transport savings. But burning digital music on compact discs and DVDs, printing digital articles and books, etc. results in rebound effects that cause new material and energy impacts, computers have a low life span of 2–3 years, reusable and upgradeable computers and computer equipment are hardly used and might not be as profitable as non-reusable ones, computers are consuming much energy. Alternatives such as energy consumption labels on ICTs and green ICTs that consume less energy contradict dominant economic interests. A sustainable information society is a society that makes use of ICTs and knowledge for fostering a good life for all human beings of current and future generations by strengthening biological diversity, technological usability, economic wealth for all, political participation of all, and cultural wisdom. Achieving a sustainable information society costs, it demands a conscious reduction of profits by not investing in the future of capital, but the future of humans, society, and nature.     

Research from global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to sustainability science based on the object-subject-process framework

Since United Nations adopted the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for the next 15 years (2016–2030), sustainable development will further become a core concept and main principle to guide global and national economic and social development. According to this background, strengthening the integrative research on the theories and methodologies of sustainable development has been a strategically important mission. This article provided an analytic framework for sustainability science, named the object-subject-process (OSP) framework for examining the key issues encountered during the theoretical research and policy analysis. This study emphasized that, on the object dimension, sustainable development means to seek for economic and social development within biophysical limits of the earth and the relationship of environment, society, and economy should be containing and complementary rather than parallel and substitute; on the process dimension, sustainable development should adopt both the responsive and proactive strategies for the whole process management which employing pressure-state-response (PRS) model rather than dealing with one part of them; on the subject dimension, sustainable development research should involve the key stakeholders who are kind of collaborate governance rather than separate each other. From the perspective of sustainability science, green economy was utilized as a case study to explore the issues of object, process and subject and also the significance of green economy was discussed in this study.     

转型期的资源与环境管理：基于市场-政府-社会三角制衡的分析

在经济体制转型期，伴随着经济的持续快速增长，我国出现了前所未有的资源破坏和环境恶化现象，严重制约未来经济社会的可持续发展。由此，构建解决经济发展需求与资源环境供给矛盾的有效机制，成为政界及学术界共同关注的重点课题。从中国经济转型期存在的主要资源与环境问题分析入手，提出资源环境管理制度构建的理想框架，通过进一步评价我国在市场机制、政府干预、公众参与3个方面的经验及教训，分别提出未来改进的方向。研究结果表明：“市场—政府—社会”三足鼎立的制度结构是我国资源环境管理制度构建的理想目标，也是适应世界资源环境保护发展的潮流。最后提出协调政府和市场作用、构建市场运作平台、营造公众参与氛围等方面的政策建议。     

中国绿色经济发展和机制政策创新研究

通过绿色转型创造新的发展和就业机会对于摆脱经济危机、提升国家竞争力并占据全球制高点和领先地位已经成为全球共识。中国的绿色经济发展将对其未来经济繁荣乃至全球经济发展产生深远影响。转变经济发展方式,实现绿色发展,这不仅是中华民族长远发展的战略性选择和必然需要,也是对全球可持续发展的积极贡献,将对人类发展产生的重要影响。中国正逐步走向绿色发展之路,建设资源节约型社会和环境友好型社会,发展循环经济和低碳经济已经为中国的绿色发展奠定了较为坚实的基础。但是在全球化大背景下,中国正面临各种规模庞大、情况复杂的经济发展、社会转变与环境保护的挑战与机遇,尤其是在宏观层面,绿色发展的体制机制保障尚不健全,制约了中国绿色转型的成效。如何通过恰当的制度创新,进一步推进转型成本效率的提高和体制机制与政策法规质量的改善,加快并深化中国的绿色转型是目前面临的主要问题。本文针对上述问题,系统归纳总结了国际上发展绿色经济的普遍经验以及中国发展绿色经济面临的主要问题和挑战,认为发展绿色经济目前并没有一种通用的模式,解决中国发展绿色经济发展过程中所面临的资源环境制约,必须调整现行以GDP为导向的政府和官员绩效考核体系,平衡目前财政分权体系中财权和事权不对应问题,进一步明确政府和市场的作用及各自起作用的领域,同时,综合应用法律、财政、税收和价格等工具,重视不同手段的综合和协同运用,在不同的发展领域,提出具有适应性和包容性的发展策略,具体来说:①实施"差异化"区域绿色发展战略,针对不同的经济发展和资源环境基础,提出不同的发展重点,同时,建立分区域的绿色发展监测和评估体系;②通过技术进步和管理创新发展绿色农业,以保障农产品安全、生态安全和资源安全为重点,推动农业发展政策、农业生产组织、农业技术服务和农业管理体系的转型;③以资源节约和环境友好为基本原则,实施绿色创新战略,引导和推动工业结构的优化升级;④创建绿色服务业体系;⑤推行绿色消费模式,以绿色消费倒逼绿色经济转型。     

Resource and Environmental Issues in Transitional China： A Perspective from the Interaction Among Market, Government and Society

Along with the rapid growth of economy in the postreform period after 1979,China has faced severe problems of resource overusing and environmental degradation which would threaten the sustainable development of economy and society.This article explores an effective mechanism of managing resource and environment in China.It examines some major resource and environmental issues,and constructs a framework of institution innovation to cover three sectors(government,market and society).In addition,the article analyzes their experience and evaluation in resource management and environmental conservation during the transitional period.We argue that the combination of market regulation,government intervention and public participation is an effective way of allocating resource and protecting environment.Some suggestions are put forward to balance the relationship between them,including coordinating role of government and market,building platform for market operation and creating an atmosphere of public participation.     

Environmental effects of energy systems: The OECD COMPASS project

Energy and environment are complementary goals of industrial society. The OECD COMPASS project recognises the need for comprehensive information and assessment of the environmental implications of energy strategies and systems, not just energy sources, for effective policymaking in both energy and environmental fields. Energy systems are viewed from the end-use perspective in comparing the environmental effects of different trends and strategies in energy use. This paper discusses methodological criteria for effective assesstment in the environmental field, and some applications to the environmental implications of energy use in space heating and cooling, involving three case studies in different OECD countries. Some conclusions are drawn concerning energy-environment policy, in particular concerning the role of comparative assessment techniques in policymaking.     

循环经济与江苏产业结构调整

为寻求一种能实现环境保护与经济发展相互促进的新途径,在分析循环经济的内涵及其与产业结构变动关系的基础上,对江苏产业结构进行了较深层次的分析,结果表明：江苏产业结构中资源消耗型和环境污染型行业仍占有较大比重。按照循环经济的原理,江苏产业结构调整的目标是：在“稳定一产,优化二产,壮大三产”的同时,各产业内部要优先发展资源节约型、环境友好型和废物利用型行业。工业主要是实现生态化转型,对不同行业分别给予鼓励、控制或限制;农业主要是投入品减量化、废弃物资源化和产业纵横链接化;服务业主要是围绕经济、社会和环境和谐发展的目标推进产业的环保化。     

Resource and Environmental Issues in Transitional China: A Perspective from the Interaction Among Market,Government and Society

Abstract

Along with the rapid growth of economy in the postreform period after 1979, China has faced severe problems of resource overusing and environmental degradation which would threaten the sustainable development of economy and society. This article explores an effective mechanism of managing resource and environment in China. It examines some major resource and environmental issues, and constructs a framework of institution innovation to cover three sectors (government, market and society). In addition, the article analyzes their experience and evaluation in resource management and environmental conservation during the transitional period. We argue that the combination of market regulation, government intervention and public participation is an effective way of allocating resource and protecting environment. Some suggestions are put forward to balance the relationship between them, including coordinating role of government and market, building platform for market operation and creating an atmosphere of public participation.     

A study on aquaculture industry regulations and policies of globally representative states

Aquaculture has a long history,and has achieved rapid development from 1950 to 2010,especially since the 1990s.Nevertheless,aquaculture has also seen a series of problems emerge.Inevitably,aquaculture interacts with the environment and society.Rapid development requires that close attention be paid to potential environmental and social impacts and their prevention or mitigation.The development and management of aquaculture is related closely with a variety of legal and institutional arrangements.Thus,aquaculture raises numerous legal and institutional issues.This paper explores actual legal and institutional practices of global representative aquaculture countries and provides a comprehensive account of the legislation and policies of different countries.Further,this paper reveals that the optimal legal framework for aquaculture is in line with related international regulations(especially the soft laws)and strictly operational,and the corresponding policy framework should establish early access and warning,as well as post assessment and feedback mechanisms.     

国内外大型水电工程生态环境监测与保护

简要介绍了世界银行对水电工程的环境政策,概述了埃及阿斯旺、巴西伊泰普、中国的二滩和三峡等四个世界著名水电站的长期环境监测计划和减少负面影响的对策。水电工程对周边环境会产生正面或负面影响,对大型水坝的负面影响作了集中的阐述。埃及的阿斯旺高坝建于20世纪60年代, 当时人们对生态环境影响问题还没有引起重视。长期的生态环境监测结果表明,一些环境影响比如河床侵蚀等实际上被过分夸大,而另外一些,如对传统的制砖业带来的影响又被忽视;巴西的伊泰普水坝在兴建过程中注意了采取措施减少负面影响,如在库周地区植树造林,兴建生物屏障,建立自然保护区,实施动物救护等;中国的二滩水电站由世界银行贷款兴建,并执行了世界银行的环境政策来降低负面影响;这些大型水电工程兴建中的经验给在建的三峡工程提供了有益的借鉴,一系列的环境保护措施正在实施,世界上最大的生态环境监测网络已在三峡库区及相关地区建成。     

循环经济型生态城市规划框架研究--以贵阳市为例

在城市层次上如何发展循环经济是一项全新的实践。本文以贵阳市为例探讨了循环经济型生态城市建设的规划框架。贵阳经济社会和资源环境的分析充分表明，利用循环经济模式建设生态城市是贵阳市的必然选择和最佳机遇，在这一战略指导下，本文构建了“一个目标，两个环节，三大核心系统，八大循环体系”的规划框架。     

基于组合模型的能源消费预测研究

能源作为社会发展的重要物质基础,其消费影响着人类赖以生存和发展的自然环境,也是经济和社会可持续发展的关键问题。通过建立能源消费量模型,准确预测中国能源消费总量,做好未来能源消费预测分析,从而为制定合理的能源生产计划、外供能、节能计划及制定相关的政策等提供科学的依据,这对于保持中国社会经济健康、持续、稳定的发展都具有重要的理论与现实意义。而运用组合模型进行预测不仅预测结果准确性高,而且稳定性好。本文借助组合模型对能源消费所做的预测研究表明,随着社会、经济的发展,中国能源需求不断增长。尤其是2000年以来,中国能源消费稳步增长,未来几年仍将继续保持此增长势头及速度。组合模型集结了更多的有用信息,使得预测结果更加可靠,可以作为中国"十二五"期间的能源消费量预测的有效工具,为能源决策提供更为可靠的依据及建议。     

The Clean Development Mechanism and Sustainable Development in China's Electricity Sector

Abstract

The Clean Development Mechanism, a flexibility mechanism contained in the Kyoto Protocol, offers China an important tool to attract investment in clean energy technology and processes into its electricity sector. The Chinese electricity sector places centrally in the country's economy and environment, being a significant contributor to the acid rain and air pollution problems that plague many of China's cities and regions, and therefore a focus of many related energy and environmental policies. China's electricity sector has also been the subject of a number of economic analyses that have showed that it contains the highest potential for clean energy investment through the Clean Development Mechanism of any economic sector in China. This mechanism, through the active participation from investors in more industrialized countries, can help alleviate the environmental problems attributable to electricity generation in China through advancing such technology as wind electricity generation, clean coal technology, high efficient natural gas electricity generation, or utilization of coal mine methane. In this context, the Clean Development Mechanism also compliments a range of environmental and energy policies which are strategizing to encourage the sustainable development of China's economy.     

Future directions in air quality research: economic issues

Our challenge was to address future directions in air quality research that involve economic issues. The paper outlines the role of economics in the evaluation of air pollution impacts on environmental systems and describes existing research. We identify studies that address economic effects in the agricultural sector, in the commercial forest sector, and in unmanaged natural systems. Effects related to ozone exposure are highlighted. The summary of available research is followed by a discussion of research recommendations. Several short-term recommendations are identified that can augment some of the new research being considered by scientists. A more ambitious, long-term research project is outlined for valuing air pollution impacts in unmanaged natural environments. Specifically, the paper describes possible advantages of an 'integrated assessment' framework that more formally brings together the complex relationships that exist in both ecological and economic systems. A final section contains thoughts on the importance of education (i.e., information transfer) in the research process, especially in relation to policy. It is further noted that education should be inclusive of all members of the research team, throughout all stages of the research process.     

Economic Modelling in Sustainability Science: Issues,Methodology, and Implications

Sustainability science is a new branch of human knowledge. It is necessary to model sustainability science based on a framework consisting of the interactions of society, ecology, the environment and the economy. This paper develops such a model, the SEEOSG model, containing the essential structural relationships that incorporate the environmental and economic conditions required for sustainability. The model is solved as a dynamic optimisation problem. This optimal growth model of ecology and economic growth enables us also to analyse the issues which are specific to sustainability science such as the ecologically sustainability and inter-generational equity implications of economic activities and policies. In the model results growth maximisation goals appear to be fraught with difficulties such as infeasibility and non-sustainability. The results also suggest also that an equilibrium ecological and economic system does not sustain over a very long period of time unless appropriate actions are taken. Readers should send thier comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

城市可持续发展的制度经济学分析

城市不可持续发展的突出问题是“不可持续城市化”和“城市不可持续化”。城市发展存在政府与市场的双重失灵 ,制度变迁与制度供给是实现城市可持续发展的关键要素。城市可以看作是由经济、环境、社会、制度四个子系统构成的复杂系统。城市可持续发展的制度安排应遵循聚集利益导向、竞争优势导向、制度创新导向     

“地球工程”作为减缓气候变化手段的几个关键问题

减缓气候变化可以在大的地理尺度上以工程技术手段来实施。地球工程包括所有能源生产和消费以外的、不涉及工业生产过程管理的,在较大的地球尺度或规模上,去除大气中的CO2或直接控制太阳辐射而降温的各种人为的工程技术手段,主要包括三大类:绿色生物技术手段、碳捕获与埋存技术和太阳光辐射额度控制管理技术。这一类地球工程手段有着一系列经济、技术、环境、伦理、安全和不确定性含义。本文就近年来国际上关于地球工程作为减缓气候变化可能技术选择的几个关键问题开展了分析和讨论,涉及概念界定、技术特点、可能影响、治理构架等。作者认为,对于直接作用于碳的地球工程手段,如绿色生物技术手段和碳捕获与埋存技术,风险小、可操控;太阳光辐管理技术,通过人为排放到大气的SO2和气溶胶等的降温效应,来控制地球气温的上升,尽管使用的经济成本可能不高,具有实际操作可能,但其巨大的不确定性和可能的安全含义,需要引起足够的重视。从伦理上看,当代人是否有权来开展太阳光辐管理技术这类具有巨大科学不确定性的地球工程存在争议,在科学不确定的情况下采取任何行动,就失去了伦理学基础。从法律上看,人工干预太阳辐射,即使是科学实验或研究,由于其影响超出了国界,超出了当代人,也超出了人类社会,如果有人采取行动,也存在法律依据上的质疑。人工干预太阳辐射的研究和实施,需要一个国际治理构架。为了防止其他国家单独行动,需要"相互约束"的治理构架——"自我约束"以换取他国同意"自我约束"。鉴于气候变化和光辐管理在科学上的不确定性,目前不宜实施,短期内也不会提上议事日程。太阳光辐管理技术影响的复杂性和气候变化风险的迫切性,需要我们加大科学研究力度,为科学决策提供依据。中国作为一个新兴经济体,世界第一大CO2排放国,地域空间气候条件存在巨大差异性。从减排成本的角度,从气候影响的空间差异性,开展地球工程的科学研究,有着科学、政策和国际气候外交的积极意义。但是,相关的科学研究需要国际制度构架。由于气候变化框架公约及其谈判尚未涉及,需要开展系统科学、技术、经济、法律和国家安全等方面的相关研究,提高科学认知度,为国际谈判和政策选择提供决策依据。     

A perspective on community and state interests in small-scale mining in India including the role of women

To achieve 8% growth of the Indian economy, the industrial sector must grow at 10% rate. The vision statements of various core sectors of the country show that the mining sector will have to expand greatly. India is among the top ten mineral producing nations in the world and the Indian mining industry indicates almost the full range of extractive mineral products. Small-scale mining is quite prevalent in India. Such mines constitute about 90% of total number of mines, 42% of the total non-fuel minerals and metals, 5% of the fuel minerals. Some 3,000 small-scale mines account for a work force of about 0.5 million people. Yet this sector is a neglected sector in Indian economy and still considered as an unorganized sector. This article examines the community and state interests in small-scale mining and the contribution of small-scale mines to employment, national mineral production, practices, and Indian policy on small-scale mining. It identifies drawbacks in the existing Government policy and discusses a possible role for the Government to upgrade the sector. This paper highlights the impacts of mining on women community, the socioeconomic characteristics of women as miners and on the productive roles that women play in mining. It also discusses how the pursuit of sustainable livelihoods, poverty alleviation, indigenous peoples right and gender equity in artesianal and small-scale mining be more effective when these communities are disadvantaged or neglected by government policies. The respective roles of the indigenous people and migrant workers in the social organization of ASM sectors in different parts of the country are discussed. Readers should send their comments on this paper to BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

我国水电可持续发展的理性思考

我国是世界水能资源最为丰富的国家,但目前开发利用率仅为21%。当前我国正处于全面建设小康社会的重要战略机遇期,能源需求量持续增长,水电开发迎来了前所未有的发展机遇,但也面临水库移民、生态环境等难题。在对水库的温室气体排放、大型水电是否属于可再生能源、水库移民及库区可持续发展等问题进行分析研究的基础上,应用经济学的外部性理论对水电项目进行了政策分析,认为国家在政策上应大力鼓励支持开发水电,同时要加强严格监管,使其担负起所应承担的社会责任,促进地方经济持续发展和社会全面进步,并提出了水电开发与经济、社会、环境协调发展模式。