MAKING SMARTER ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT DECISIONS1

ABSTRACT: This paper outlines a sound, practical approach for making more informed decisions about environmental policy choices. It emphasizes the importance of using a structured decision process to specify and organize values, use these values to create alternatives, and assess tradeoffs to help achieve a desired balance across key objectives. Although these decision making steps are based on common sense, they are often neglected or poorly carried out as part of the complex evaluations of natural resource options. We discuss several reasons for this frequent neglect of decision making principles and provide examples from recent water use planning projects to demonstrate some of the benefits of using a structured, decision focused approach: new and better solutions, increased and more productive participation by stakeholders, and greater defensibility and acceptance of the resource management evaluation process and its conclusions.     

Sustainable Water Resources Management in a Conflict Resolution Framework1

Abstract: A decision support system for sustainable water resources management in a water conflict resolution framework is developed to identify and evaluate a range of acceptable alternatives for the Geum River Basin in Korea and to facilitate strategies that will result in sustainable water resource management. Working with stakeholders in a “shared vision modeling” framework, sustainable management strategies are created to illustrate system tradeoffs as well as long‐term system planning. A multi‐criterion decision‐making (MCDM) approach using subjective scales is utilized to evaluate the complex water resource allocation and management tradeoffs between stakeholders and system objectives. The procedures used in this study include the development of a “shared vision model,” a simulated decision‐making support system (as a tool for sustainable water management strategies associated with water conflicts, management options, and planning criteria), and the application of MCDM techniques for evaluating alternatives provided by the model. The research results demonstrate the utility of the sustainable water resource management model in aid of MCDM techniques in facilitating flexibility during initial stages of alternative identification and evaluation in a basin suffering from severe water conflicts.     

Violation analysis for solid waste management systems: an interval fuzzy programming approach

This paper introduces a violation analysis approach for the planning of regional solid waste management systems under uncertainty, based on an interval-parameter fuzzy integer programming (IPFIP) model. In this approach, several given levels of tolerable violation for system constraints are permitted. This is realized through a relaxation of the critical constraints using violation variables, such that the model's decision space can be expanded. Thus, solutions from the violation analysis will not necessarily satisfy all of the model's original constraints. Application of the developed methodology to the planning of a waste management system indicates that reasonable solutions can be generated through this approach. Considerable information regarding decisions of facility expansion and waste flow allocation within the waste management system were generated. The modeling results help to generate a number of decision alternatives under various system conditions, allowing for more in-depth analyses of tradeoffs between environmental and economic objectives as well as those between system optimality and reliability.     

SAGE: A NEW PARTICIPANT-VALUE METHOD FOR ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT1

SAGE, a proposed method for environmental assessment, focuses on eliciting and incorporating value weights in multiple-objective decision making. In this method, the value weights are inferred from the tradeoffs that people make in choices about alternatives. These weights are applied to scaled scores for accounts based on measurable attributes of each objective. In order to indicate the political ramifications of decisions and to facilitate sensitivity analysis, the values held by various groups are presented in matrix from arrayed by group affiliation or by judgment types that share common values. Results of a trial application of SAGE to a land use/watershed management problem in a growing urban area are presented.     

THE CENTRAL ARIZONA WATER CONTROL STUDY: A CASE FOR MULTIOBJECTIVE PLANNING AND PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT1

This paper describes the successful application of a multiobjective planning framework, incorporating substantial public involvement, to a major water resources decision involving intense confilcts. The study was initiated to help resolve more than a decade of controversy over a project proposed to control flooding and provide regulatory storage in the Phoenix, Arizona, area. The public was actively involved in the development of study goals and the specification of acceptable tradeoffs between multiple objectives. A wide range of structural and nonstructural alternatives was formulated and evaluated in relation to these objectives, and broad-based support was developed for a new plan. Reasons for the successful outcome are discussed, as well as implications for water resources planning under the new Federal Principles and Guidelines.     

Focusing biodiversity research on the needs of decision makers

The project on Biodiversity Uncertainties and Research Needs (BURN) ensures the advancement of usable knowledge on biodiversity by obtaining input from decision makers on their priority information needs about biodiversity and then using this input to engage leading scientists in designing policy-relevant research. Decision makers articulated concerns related to four issues: significance of biodiversity; status and trends of biodiversity; management for biodiversity; and the linkage of social, cultural, economic, legal, and biological objectives. Leading natural and social scientists then identified the research required to address the decision makers' needs and determined the probability of success. The diverse group of experts reached consensus on several fundamental issues, helping to clarify the role of biodiversity in land and resource management. The BURN participants identified several features that should be incorporated into policy-relevant research plans and management strategies for biodiversity. Research and assessment efforts should be: multidisciplinary and integrative, participatory with stakeholder involvement, hierarchical (multiple scales), and problem- and region-specific. The activities should be focused regionally within a global perspective. Meta-analysis of existing data is needed on all fronts to assess the state of the science. More specifically, the scientists recommended six priority research areas that should be pursued to address the information needs articulated by decision makers: (1) characterization of biodiversity, (2) environmental valuation, (3) management for sustainability—for humans and the environment (adaptive management), (4) information management strategies, (5) governance and stewardship issues, and (6) communication and outreach. Broad recommendations were developed for each research area to provide direction for research planning and resource management strategies. The results will directly benefit those groups that require biodiversity research to address their needs—whether to develop policy, manage natural resources, or make other decisions affecting biodiversity.     

A PROCESS FOR FEDERAL WATER PLANNING AT THE FIELD LEVEL1

ABSTRACT: A process for planning at the field offices of Federal water resources agencies is described. The process involve s both planners and publics in the following four planning activities: problem definition, formulation of alternatives, impact analysis and evaluation (or plan ranking). Evaluative factors are defied as the goals, concerns, constraints, etc. that affected publics and other decision makers consider in ranking alternative actions. These factors serve to drive the entire process and glue the four planning activities together. In contrast to other “models” of the planning process, the four activities are considered to be carried out simultaneously and continually from the beginning of the process. As the planning process proceeds, each activity is repeated a number of times at increasing levels of detail. Various aspects of the process are illustrated by means of an example involving water resources development in Carmel Valley, California.     

STRATEGY FOR DYNAMIC REGIONAL WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND IMPLEMENTATION1

ABSTRACT Water resources planning has emphasized the consideration of alternatives in the formulation of goals and objectives. With greater availability of data and projection models, optimization of plans is now much nearer to accomplishment. In contrast to these favorable aspects of planning, increased complexity of plans and large number of alternatives serving differing sets of goals have extended the time horizons from initial plan formulation to eventual implementation. In this paper a man-machine strategy is proposed to reduce the time required for decision making and conflict resolution. A panel of representatives of the decision makers, influentials and publics involved are selected and brought through a series of dynamic planning steps that simulate real time decision making. Computer interaction graphics is used to visualize the decision making process and to illustrate where and why conflict arises. A mechanism for resolution of conflict and retention of consistency in policy formulation using a cognograph is described.     

INTERACTIVE MULTIOBJECTIVE ANALYSIS EMBEDDING THE DECISION MAKER'S IMPLICIT PREFERENCE FUNCTION1

ABSTRACT: Two simple interactive techniques are developed and illustrated by means of two different real-life examples in Thailand. The first technique, Evolutionary Sequential Multiobjective Problem Solving (ESEMOPS), is an open-ended algorithm designed for planning problems with discrete alternatives. ESEMOPS helps the decision making group (DMG) develop progressively a preference function over the alternatives. The algorithm follows an evolutionary “breeding” strategy to generate a small set of good alternative solutions. This heuristic search, which does not guarantee that the adopted ‘satisfactum’ is an efficient solution leads to plausible results when applied to the planning of the Mae Khlong-Chao Phraya interbasin water transfer and irrigation system. The second algorithm, Search Beam Method (SBM) is essentially a series of one-dimensional searches for an efficient point along a “beam” passing through a goal point. Repeated search towards displayed goal points is leading to a set of quasi non-dominated solutions. SBM is illustrated by the Ubol Ratana reservoir control problem with the two conflicting objectives of energy generation and irrigation water supply. Neither ESEMOPS nor SBM require that weights, utilities, or pairwise tradeoffs be assessed. These features have been very much appreciated by a real DMG presented with the two techniques.     

An Evaluation of Multiple Objective Decision Support Weighting Techniques in Natural Resource Management

Multiple objective decision support (MODS) is a structured framework for evaluating decision alternatives against multiple, and often conflicting, criteria. Its ability to handle complex trade-offs in a variety of quantitative and qualitative units gives it much potential in the field of natural resource management (NRM). A key component of MODS is the process used to obtain information from decision makers on the relative importance of evaluative criteria. Ranking algorithms then use this information to determine the relative value of each decision alternative. This paper explores how practising community based NRM decision makers respond to five generic methods for weighting the criteria. It presents a study in which 55 decision makers throughout five regions in Queensland, Australia, applied MODS to evaluate environmental projects seeking funding under the Australian Natural Heritage Trust. Weighting methods applied include fixed point scoring, rating, ordinal ranking, a graphical method and paired comparisons. Decision makers evaluated each weighting method in terms of ease of use and of how much it helped clarify the decision problem. Results show that decision makers felt uncomfortable applying fixed point scoring and generally preferred to express their preferences through ordinal ranking. This has implications for the types of ranking algorithms that can be applied to evaluate the decision alternatives.     

BIOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF SACRAMENTO WATERSHED MANAGEMENT OPTIONS1

ABSTRACT: This paper brings together spatially and temporally explicit mechanistic models of hydrodynamic, water quality, and ecological processes with an economic model to examine water management alternatives for California's Sacramento River and Delta ecosystem, a large‐scale watershed. Overallocated water supplies in most years, combined with increasing demand for water for environmental purposes, have created a politically charged atmosphere and a need for quantitative assessment of the implications of policy alternatives. By developing and analyzing a common set of policy scenarios, this integrated framework allows us to consider tradeoffs between agricultural economic factors, water quality, and population dynamics for two at‐risk fish species. We analyze two rather extreme types of policy options; one involves structural modifications to change the flow of water within the watershed but no change in water diversions, while the other reallocates water from agricultural users to fish and wildlife. Results suggest that substantial environmental improvements could be made at a relatively modest cost to farmers (1 to 4 percent reductions in revenues) but that those costs could be significant locally. In addition to tradeoffs between farmers and environmental interests, results suggest that policy makers may need to balance competing environmental objectives.     

WATER SUPPLY OPTIONS IN A NEW MEXICO WATER PLANNING REGION1

ABSTRACT: The population in the Jemez y Sangre Water Planning Region of New Mexico has reached the point at which the demand for water exceeds available supplies, particularly when precipitation is below average, as has frequently occurred in recent years. The desire to develop a sustainable water supply that relies on renewable supplies in wet years and preserves the water in storage for times of drought motivated a diverse set of stakeholders in the region to participate in regional water planning. The planning effort culminated in development of the Jemez y Sangre Regional Water Plan, which was adopted by municipal and county governments in the region. The plan assesses and compares water supply and demand in the region and recommends alternatives for protecting and restoring the existing water supply and addressing the pending gap between supply and demand anticipated by the year 2060. To convey to decision makers the alternatives available to solve the future water shortage, option charts were developed to portray the amount of water that could be obtained or conserved through their implementation. The option charts show that the projected gap between supply and demand cannot be met through one alternative only, but will require a combination of alternatives.     

Finding Common Ground: How Advocacy Coalitions Succeed in Protecting Environmental Flows1

Abstract: This paper reviews several recent case studies in which states or countries have strengthened their protection of environmental flows to explore the key policy, stakeholder, and scientific elements that contributed to these advances in water management. A conceptual framework is developed to describe the actions of interest groups and individuals, how environmental flow issues get onto the formal agenda of decision makers, the events and conditions which precipitate this attention, the role of science and scientific uncertainty, and how interactions and dialog among individuals and groups with different interests lead to changes in state and national statutes. In general, the review found that changing policies is a result of actions of informed groups of interested parties using science and information to inform both the public and decision makers about the need for action and about the specific action needed. In almost all cases, environmental flow issues make it onto the formal agenda of institutions through one or more precipitating events, often legal challenges that call into question the existing legal framework for water management. Significantly, in almost all cases the engagement between advocacy coalitions with different and often opposing views results in reframing the issues to provide a common approach or solution upon which the competing coalitions can agree.     

Passive and active adaptive management: approaches and an example

Adaptive management is a framework for resource conservation that promotes iterative learning-based decision making. Yet there remains considerable confusion about what adaptive management entails, and how to actually make resource decisions adaptively. A key but somewhat ambiguous distinction in adaptive management is between active and passive forms of adaptive decision making. The objective of this paper is to illustrate some approaches to active and passive adaptive management with a simple example involving the drawdown of water impoundments on a wildlife refuge. The approaches are illustrated for the drawdown example, and contrasted in terms of objectives, costs, and potential learning rates. Some key challenges to the actual practice of AM are discussed, and tradeoffs between implementation costs and long-term benefits are highlighted.     

COMPUTER ASSISTED NEGOTIATION OF MULTIOBJECTIVE WATER RESOURCES CONFLICTS1

ABSTRACT: Since the early 1970s, a large volume of literature has accumulated related to multiobjective water resources management problems. A relatively small portion of this specifically addresses the negotiation process required when there are multiple decision makers with conflicting objectives. This paper focuses on that process and describes a computer program designed to assist such negotiation processes. This interactive computer assisted negotiation support system is called ICANS. ICANS is designed for dynamic, multi-issue, multi-party negotiation problems. Based on information provided in confidence by each party via an interactive graphical interface, the program can help determine if there exist any possible alternatives that are equivalent or even preferred to each party's decision in the absence of a negotiated agreement. If such alternatives exist, through a series of iterations in which each party's input data, assumptions, and preferences may change, ICANS can assist the parties in their search for a mutually acceptable and preferred agreement. A simple example illustrates the data requirements and the use of ICANS in negotiation experiments.     

RESERVOIR OPERATION THROUGH OBJECTIVE TRADE-OFFS1

ABSTRACT: Water resource development has progressed to the stage where various human factors are now being considered in reservoir design and operation. The introduction of human factor objectives complicates the problem since they are noncommensurate with other objectives and they are difficult to identify quantitatively. Some of the problems that now arise concern the proper methods for consideration of several different, sometimes subjectively identified, objectives in reservoir planning. The classical systems analysis approach to decision making for multiple objective problems is outlined and the inherent difficulties associated with multiple objectives and subjective estimates are identified. Techniques being used in reservoir design and operation are reviewed and discussed. An alternate technique for considering noncommensurate, subjectively identified, objectives, which relates the objectives in terms of real trade-off costs and eliminates the need for a priori estimates of objective worth is then presented. The method is illustrated with three examples, including a reservoir operation problem and a cooling tower design problem.     

An interval-based regret-analysis method for identifying long-term municipal solid waste management policy under uncertainty

In this study, an interval-based regret-analysis (IBRA) model is developed for supporting long-term planning of municipal solid waste (MSW) management activities in the City of Changchun, the capital of Jilin Province, China. The developed IBRA model incorporates approaches of interval–parameter programming (IPP) and minimax–regret (MMR) analysis within an integer programming framework, such that uncertainties expressed as both interval values and random variables can be reflected. The IBRA can account for economic consequences under all possible scenarios associated with different system costs and risk levels without making assumptions on probabilistic distributions for random variables. A regret matrix with interval elements is generated based on a matrix of interval system costs, such that desired decision alternatives can be identified according to the interval minimax regret (IMMR) criterion. The results indicate that reasonable solutions have been generated. They can help decision makers identify the desired alternatives regarding long-term MSW management with a compromise between minimized system cost and minimized system-failure risk.     

Communicating About Bioenergy Sustainability

Defining and measuring sustainability of bioenergy systems are difficult because the systems are complex, the science is in early stages of development, and there is a need to generalize what are inherently context-specific enterprises. These challenges, and the fact that decisions are being made now, create a need for improved communications among scientists as well as between scientists and decision makers. In order for scientists to provide information that is useful to decision makers, they need to come to an agreement on how to measure and report potential risks and benefits of diverse energy alternatives in a way that allows decision makers to compare options. Scientists also need to develop approaches that contribute information about problems and opportunities relevant to policy and decision making. The need for clear communication is especially important at this time when there is a plethora of scientific papers and reports and it is difficult for the public or decision makers to assess the merits of each analysis. We propose three communication guidelines for scientists whose work can contribute to decision making: (1) relationships between the question and the analytical approach should be clearly defined and make common sense; (2) the information should be presented in a manner that non-scientists can understand; and (3) the implications of methods, assumptions, and limitations should be clear. The scientists’ job is to analyze information to build a better understanding of environmental, cultural, and socioeconomic aspects of the sustainability of energy alternatives. The scientific process requires transparency, debate, review, and collaboration across disciplines and time. This paper serves as an introduction to the papers in the special issue on “Sustainability of Bioenergy Systems: Cradle to Grave” because scientific communication is essential to developing more sustainable energy systems. Together these four papers provide a framework under which the effects of bioenergy can be assessed and compared to other energy alternatives to foster sustainability.     

A MULTIOBJECTIVE,DISCRETE SYSTEM REPRESENTATION OF RANGELAND WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Resource utilization as practiced by humans is identified as the main cause of the degradation of rangeland watersheds, a process referred to as desertification. This paper introduces a multi-objective decision making methodology for the selection of a plan which if implemented should limit the desertification process. The evaluation objectives are measured by quantitative and qualitative criteria. The quantitative criteria provide the performance level for production and sediment yield, while the qualitative criteria give such information as public acceptance of a particular alternative or worth of an appropriate wildlife habitat. A system model is applied to describe the dynamics of a range site in response to climatic and human inputs. As such it provides the information required by the quantitative criteria as well as a range condition index that identifies the productivity of a given range site. A multiobjective selection procedure is presented that will lead to the appropriate technique from an available set, in this case ESAP, Environmental Sensitivity Analysis Package. Four individuals with diverse backgrounds in natural resource management participated as decision makers and decided on their preferred alternatives. Finally, ranked alternatives in agreement with all of the decision makers were obtained.     

Ecological information in the political decision making of urban land-use planning

The objective of this paper is to examine what factors determine the importance of ecological information in political decision making of urban land use in Helsinki, southern Finland. Results from the interviews of politicians and city officials show that ecological information becomes more important if there are significant conservation values connected to a plan area, contacts and appeals from plan participants, strong media attention or if a decision maker focuses more on the issue due to personal interests and values. Balancing the weight of recreational and cultural values may be one of the most difficult tasks for decision makers to handle.