Water management decision makers' evaluations of uncertainty in a decision support system: the case of WaterSim in the Decision Theater

Model-based decision support systems are increasingly used to link knowledge to action for environmental decision making. How stakeholders perceive uncertainty in models and visualisations affects their perceptions of credibility, relevance and usability of these tools. This paper presents a case study of water decision makers’ evaluations of WaterSim, a dynamic water simulation model presented in an immersive decision theatre environment. Results reveal that decision makers’ understandings of uncertainty in their evaluations of decision support systems reflect both scientific and political discourse. We conclude with recommendations for design and evaluation of decision support systems that incorporate decision makers' views.     

SCIENCE AND POLICY IN INTEGRATED WATERSHED MANAGEMENT: A CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: Policy and management plans can be enhanced through effective communication between researchers and decision makers. Differences in understanding can come from differences in professional cultures. Scientists deal with facts, proof and incremental progress whereas the decision makers are often faced with perceptions, emotions and deadlines. A case study is presented illustrating the interaction between the political system and science on a water management issue. Irrigation projects in the western San Joaquin Valley of California lead to a situation requiring subsurface drainage and disposal of the drainage water. The original plan was to discharge the drainage water in the Suisun Bay east of the San Francisco Bay. Severe damage to birds associated with selenium in the water led to a reevaluation of irrigation and drainage management options. Federal and state agencies cooperated to establish a San Joaquin Valley Drainage Program (SJVDP) which was to develop plans for solving the problem. Discharge to the Bay was politically eliminated as an option for evaluation, an action criticized by a National Research Council Committee as not being scientifically based. The SJVDP published a Management Plan in 1990 which contained proposals viewed by the scientific community as not necessarily incorrect but not completely justified based on the scientific knowledge at the time. A segment of the Citizens Advisory Committee that was part of the SJVDP consisting of representatives from the interest groups viewed the Management Plan as a negotiated agreement between the environmental and agricultural interests. Presently, an Activity Plan exists, consisting of technical committees to evaluate the current technical and economic evaluation of the management options proposed in the Management Plan. This case study illustrates that factors other than scientific facts have bearing on decisions. Successful management plans must be technically sound, economically viable and socially acceptable. The scientific community needs to evaluate its role in the policy making arena and to focus research on questions of greatest value to decision makers, as well as to scientific peers.     

A Decision Support Framework for Science-Based, Multi-Stakeholder Deliberation: A Coral Reef Example

We present a decision support framework for science-based assessment and multi-stakeholder deliberation. The framework consists of two parts: a DPSIR (Drivers–Pressures–States–Impacts–Responses) analysis to identify the important causal relationships among anthropogenic environmental stressors, processes, and outcomes; and a Decision Landscape analysis to depict the legal, social, and institutional dimensions of environmental decisions. The Decision Landscape incorporates interactions among government agencies, regulated businesses, non-government organizations, and other stakeholders. It also identifies where scientific information regarding environmental processes is collected and transmitted to improve knowledge about elements of the DPSIR and to improve the scientific basis for decisions. Our application of the decision support framework to coral reef protection and restoration in the Florida Keys focusing on anthropogenic stressors, such as wastewater, proved to be successful and offered several insights. Using information from a management plan, it was possible to capture the current state of the science with a DPSIR analysis as well as important decision options, decision makers and applicable laws with a the Decision Landscape analysis. A structured elicitation of values and beliefs conducted at a coral reef management workshop held in Key West, Florida provided a diversity of opinion and also indicated a prioritization of several environmental stressors affecting coral reef health. The integrated DPSIR/Decision landscape framework for the Florida Keys developed based on the elicited opinion and the DPSIR analysis can be used to inform management decisions, to reveal the role that further scientific information and research might play to populate the framework, and to facilitate better-informed agreement among participants.     

A multicriteria model for planning agricultural regions within a context of groundwater rational management

Current international research focuses on topics like sustainable development, regional planning, environmental decision making and implementation, biodiversity conservation plus a number of other relevant issues, especially at times of economic crisis as today. Economic growth and environmental protection can go hand in hand, provided that decision makers develop and use tools and insights targeting in the implementation of successful and robust long term policies. This paper was developed in the framework of a European research project and implements a Multicriteria Mathematical Programming model that optimises the sustainable management of agricultural regions taking in account the available resources (land, labour, capital) and environmental parameters (agrochemicals, water consumption). The model achieves the optimum farm plan in the area combining different criteria to a utility function under a set of constraints and the spatial integration of the vulnerability maps of the regions into the model enables the regional authorities to design policies for the optimal agricultural development and the groundwater protection from the agricultural land uses. Furthermore, the model is used to simulate different scenarios and policies by the local stakeholders, due to changes on different social, economic and environmental parameters. In this way the decision makers can achieve alternative farm plans and agricultural land uses as well as to estimate economic, social and environmental impacts of different policies. The model has been applied to an agricultural region in Northern Greece and proved to be a valuable tool in the implementation of environmental policies and actions, especially in agricultural regions in a delicate balance as the study area.     

Willing and able: explaining individuals' engagement in environmental policy making

Research on attitudes toward environmental policy making has often overlooked the important role that risks play in forming individual attitudes towards the environment. Similarly, this research often assumes that the factors that affect attitudes are similar across different environmental domains. The purpose of this research is to examine how the factors that affect an individual's willingness to get involved in environmental policy making differ on two environmental issues – nuclear power and drinking water. The study utilises multivariate statistical techniques to explore the relationship that uncertainty, risk, and trust play in an individual's willingness to take action in environmental policy making. The data consist of responses to a national random telephone survey of 403 adults in the United States. The individuals surveyed are more likely to take action on the less avoidable potential threat of nuclear power than they are on drinking water. The respondents believe that the potential harm from nuclear power is greater than that from drinking water. The individuals most likely to take action are those who indicate that they are interested in environmental issues.     

Comparing Environmental Flow Implementation Options with Structured Decision Making: Case Study from the Willamette River,Oregon

Many frameworks have been used to identify environmental flows for sustaining river ecosystems or specific taxa in the face of widespread flow alteration. However, these frameworks largely focus on identifying suitable flows and often ignore the important links between management actions, resulting flows, and valued ecosystem or social responses. Structured decision making (SDM) could assist the comparison of environmental flows by providing a mature framework to link management actions to objectives via environmental flow science. We describe SDM and illustrate its application using a case study focused on comparing environmental flow scenarios for the mainstem Willamette River, Oregon. In a short timeframe, SDM was applied to identify objectives, develop empirical and expert opinion‐based models, and compare flow scenarios while accounting for interannual flow variability and partial controllability. No scenario was clearly preferred based on available knowledge, largely because river flows could only be partially controlled through dam operations. Participants agreed that SDM was useful for comparing alternative dam operations, but that refined predictive models and additional objectives were needed to better inform basinwide flow decisions. In our view, SDM can provide more realistic comparisons of environmental flows by accounting for partial controllability and uncertainty, which may result in greater implementation of available flow management actions.     

WATER RESOURCE POLITICS AND INTEREST GROUP TACTICS1

ABSTRACT: The traditional strong role of interest groups in water resources policy making has been modified recently by the introduction of many environmental groups. The new groups differ from traditional groups in their relatively modest resources and their relative lack of access to traditional decision points. This paper examines the extent to which the new groups differ in their perceptions of the effectiveness of tactics and in their use of tactics, taking into account group resources and group access to decision makers.     

An Evaluation of Multiple Objective Decision Support Weighting Techniques in Natural Resource Management

Multiple objective decision support (MODS) is a structured framework for evaluating decision alternatives against multiple, and often conflicting, criteria. Its ability to handle complex trade-offs in a variety of quantitative and qualitative units gives it much potential in the field of natural resource management (NRM). A key component of MODS is the process used to obtain information from decision makers on the relative importance of evaluative criteria. Ranking algorithms then use this information to determine the relative value of each decision alternative. This paper explores how practising community based NRM decision makers respond to five generic methods for weighting the criteria. It presents a study in which 55 decision makers throughout five regions in Queensland, Australia, applied MODS to evaluate environmental projects seeking funding under the Australian Natural Heritage Trust. Weighting methods applied include fixed point scoring, rating, ordinal ranking, a graphical method and paired comparisons. Decision makers evaluated each weighting method in terms of ease of use and of how much it helped clarify the decision problem. Results show that decision makers felt uncomfortable applying fixed point scoring and generally preferred to express their preferences through ordinal ranking. This has implications for the types of ranking algorithms that can be applied to evaluate the decision alternatives.     

Focusing biodiversity research on the needs of decision makers

The project on Biodiversity Uncertainties and Research Needs (BURN) ensures the advancement of usable knowledge on biodiversity by obtaining input from decision makers on their priority information needs about biodiversity and then using this input to engage leading scientists in designing policy-relevant research. Decision makers articulated concerns related to four issues: significance of biodiversity; status and trends of biodiversity; management for biodiversity; and the linkage of social, cultural, economic, legal, and biological objectives. Leading natural and social scientists then identified the research required to address the decision makers' needs and determined the probability of success. The diverse group of experts reached consensus on several fundamental issues, helping to clarify the role of biodiversity in land and resource management. The BURN participants identified several features that should be incorporated into policy-relevant research plans and management strategies for biodiversity. Research and assessment efforts should be: multidisciplinary and integrative, participatory with stakeholder involvement, hierarchical (multiple scales), and problem- and region-specific. The activities should be focused regionally within a global perspective. Meta-analysis of existing data is needed on all fronts to assess the state of the science. More specifically, the scientists recommended six priority research areas that should be pursued to address the information needs articulated by decision makers: (1) characterization of biodiversity, (2) environmental valuation, (3) management for sustainability—for humans and the environment (adaptive management), (4) information management strategies, (5) governance and stewardship issues, and (6) communication and outreach. Broad recommendations were developed for each research area to provide direction for research planning and resource management strategies. The results will directly benefit those groups that require biodiversity research to address their needs—whether to develop policy, manage natural resources, or make other decisions affecting biodiversity.     

Ecological Risk Assessment and Problem Formulation for Lake Uluabat,a Ramsar State in Turkey

Unlike the United States and the European Union, developing countries do not have sufficiently structured legal and institutional systems to apply certain environmental management tools such as ecological risk assessment. However, it is important for countries with valuable environmental and ecological resources to have appropriate tools and to strengthen their environmental management capabilities and capacities for the sake of those resources. The case study described in this paper attempts to be a case study towards developing environmental management plans, especially in developing countries. The problem formulation step of Ecological Risk Assessment applied in this study contributed to the basic elements of an environmental management plan including the following: the partnership-building process, prioritization of the problems and issues of the ecosystem, and development of the action plan. Based on the information provided by participants from a series of workshops held to develop an environmental management plan for Uluabat Lake, ecosystem risks were ranked and an action plan was formed. The results obtained with the aid of fuzzy set theory provided a base for identification of the action steps by allowing scientific information to be included in the process. The degree to which Uluabat Lakes problem formulation fits into the existing legal framework of Turkey is also analyzed in this paper.     

REVISITING STATE WATER RIGHTS LAW1

ABSTRACT: Water resources professionals should be engaged actively in revisiting state water rights law. During the past four years, sponsored by the American Society of Civil Engineers with cooperation of other water resources organizations, over a hundred engineers, hydrologists, geographers, lawyers, administrators, educators, water users, and other persons interested in water law have been preparing a Model State Water Rights Code. Preliminary drafts of the Model Code have been considered in four states, and its provisions will be disseminated nationally to state legislators and other policy makers upon formal publication in September 1994. The Model Code gathers the best provisions from state water laws into comprehensive regulated riparian and prior appropriation provisions, includes commentaries explaining how its textual sections address water resources planning and management issues, and references similar language in current state water statutes. The goal of the Code Project is to provide materials which will assist legislators so they can enact effective, efficient, and equitable water laws. In the future, the Code drafting group will expand its efforts to develop legal guidelines for allocating shared transboundary water resources, water quality law, federal water statutes, and other water resources legal issues.     

Integrating local and technical knowledge to support soil salinity monitoring in the Amudarya river basin

The role of monitoring is changing due to the increasing awareness of complexity and uncertainty in environmental resources management. Monitoring systems are required to support critical reflection about the effectiveness of actions toward the achievement of management objectives. To this aim, monitoring should be based on a strong integrated and multi-scale approach. Monitoring costs could be prohibitive if the monitoring is only based on traditional scientific methods of measurements. To deal with these issues, the design of an innovative monitoring system should be based on the integration between different sources of knowledge and information. In this work the usability of local knowledge to support environmental monitoring is investigated. A multi-step participatory monitoring design process has been implemented aiming to design a program for soil salinity monitoring in the lower Amudarya river basin in Uzbekistan. Although there is an increasing awareness of the importance of stakeholders being involved in decision processes, the current socio-cultural and institutional context is not favourable to the participatory approach. The choice of method to be implemented in this work was influenced by such conditions. The analysis of the lessons learned from the experiences gained in this project revealed some important clues concerning the development of a locally-based monitoring program. These lessons can be subdivided according to three fundamental issues: the long term involvement of local community members in monitoring activities, the acceptance of locally-based monitoring systems by decision makers, and the reliability of monitoring information.     

The use of indicators in environmental policy appraisal: lessons from the design and evolution of water security policy measures

Drawing up environmental policy options is a complex activity which involves defining and weighing the merits and risks of various alternative courses of action governments could pursue. In its modern version, this task typically involves formal policy analysis or ‘policy appraisal’, that is, policy work specifically undertaken to generate and evaluate policy options in order to address problems or issues on a policy agenda. Indicators play a powerful but under-investigated role in this process. To shed light on this issue, the paper conducts a case study of the design and evolution of policy indicators in water security policy formulation, examining both their utilization and impact. The paper documents the origins of water security policy indicators; assesses their relevance and influence in policy formulation and identifies the reasons for the emergence of certain preferred indices, despite their having several well-known limitations. In particular, the discussion flags the significance of the political advantages surrounding their ease of use and interpretation, rather than their technical merits, as a key factor affecting the continued utilization and influence of specific indicators in environmental policy and planning.     

Framing Dynamics and Political Gridlock: The Curious Case of Hydraulic Fracturing in New York

‘Fracking’ was on New York's agenda since 2008, yet no decision was made about it until late 2014. The gridlock is an intriguing puzzle given that the Marcellus shale is considered a ‘world class’ energy supply, and development has been aggressive in other US states. While policy scholars typically conceptualize gridlock as policy stability, this paper examines it as a dynamic process by which competing discourse coalitions engage in interactive framing processes that (re)structure the discussion. This suggests that the interaction between contending coalitions influences gridlock. Yet, we lack knowledge about interactive framing between competing coalitions during policy controversies. Our main finding is that a central mechanism of gridlock is the production of conflict through interactive framing dynamics that deny a shared discursive space capable of ushering in a consensus, or reasoned agreement. In New York, this contest evolved from a policy consensus about the economic benefits of fracking to policy negotiation that incorporated environmental threats, and to prolonged policy controversy in which competing discourse coalitions contested notions of fracking in relation to energy production, environmental protection, public health, economic development, and governance. While a ban has been instituted, the failure to bridge discourse coalitions suggests that controversy will persist unless meaning disputes are resolved.     

Proposals for rehabilitation and management of Isipingo lagoon and estuary,South Africa

The Isipingo lagoon and estuary, situated to the south of the Durban metropolitan area, on the east coast of South Africa, has been subjected to intense environmental degradation. Historical events, such as the building of a major airport and the development of an industrial township, have contributed to the reduction in water flow from 102 × 10⁶ m³/yr to 3 × 10⁶m³/yr between 1952 and 1969. Current environmental issues such as water quality, litter, noise, air pollution, and solid waste dumping are described. A rehabilitation and management program that seeks to address these issues is proposed. The main objectives of this program are: the improvement of the water flow, the improvement of the water quality, and the curtailment of the destruction of littoral zone elements. The rehabilitation proposal is summarized by means of a flow chart, which lists short-, medium-, and long-term actions and identifies parties and/or organizations responsible for implementing the actions. A two-tier management structure is proposed, with the first level comprising an environmental monitoring committee, consisting of organizations with scientific expertise who would function in a watchdog capacity, monitoring restoration efforts and intervening where actions are contrary to the objectives of the rehabilitation program. The second level would consist of an estuarine management committee, which would be responsible for evaluating the restoration program and modifying objectives where necessary.     

A framework for sustainable supply chain in emerging economies

Sustainable supply chains (SSC) are an essential topic in emerging economies for achieving sustainable development. Because of their rapid economic growth, emerging economies are experiencing both sides of this development: the well‐being enhancement and the environmental impact. However, decision makers and practitioners do not have robust models for managing supply networks that consider the sustainability complexities. This study aims to provide a better understanding of SSC in emerging economies and proposes a generic framework to improve the decision‐making process. Based on a review of the literature, a decision framework for sustainability is proposed. A green sustainable decision concept is also discussed in the SSC literature. This study has implications for scholars, decision makers, and practitioners interested in advancing the SSC field based on an extension of the framework.     

Understanding the Local Socio-political Processes Affecting Conservation Management Outcomes in Corbett Tiger Reserve,India

Several measures have been recommended to guarantee a sustainable population of tigers: sufficient inviolate spaces for a viable population, sufficient prey populations, trained and skilled manpower to guard against poaching and intrusion, banning trade in tiger products to reduce poaching, and importantly, the political will to precipitate these recommendations into implementation. Of these, the creation of sufficient inviolate spaces (generally in the form of protected areas) has created the most issues with local resource-dependent communities, often resulting in significant challenges for tiger conservation policy and management. Very little empirical research has, however, been done to understand and contextualize the local-level socio-political interactions that may influence the efficacy of tiger conservation in India. In this paper, we present the results of exploratory research into the ways in which local-stakeholder groups affect the management of Corbett Tiger Reserve (CTR). Using a combined grounded theory–case study research design, and the Institutional Analysis and Development framework for analysis, we identify the socio-political processes through which local-stakeholder groups are able to articulate their issues and elicit desirable actions from the management of CTR. Increasing our awareness of these processes can help inform the design and implementation of more effective tiger conservation management and policy strategies that have the potential to create more supportive coalitions of tiger conservation stakeholders at the local level.     

Taking away David’s sling*: environmental justice and land-use conflict in extractive resource development

Exploring cases of gas and coal extraction in Australia and the U.S.A., this paper considers instances in which legal and political frameworks have been used to prioritise development interests and minimise opportunities for community objection. Two case studies illustrate the role of law and the influence of politics on environmental conflict, conflict resolution, and participation in decision-making associated with resource extraction. A range of barriers to meaningful community participation in land-use decision-making are exposed by combining legal and non-legal concepts of equity and justice with ideologies of democracy and representation. These include asymmetry in information and resources available to parties; instances of misrecognition of weaker participants; and examples of malrecognition, where community attempts to engage democratic rights of public participation were thwarted by the strategic and deliberate actions of both industry and government. This paper illustrates the limits of current legal approaches to addressing land-use conflict and contributes to the developing scholarship of environmental justice as an analytic framework for addressing complex environmental and social justice issues.     

Design and evaluation of a local analytic-deliberative process for climate adaptation planning

In the midst of rapidly proliferating engagement efforts around climate adaptation, attention to the design and evaluation of decision support processes and products is warranted. We report on the development and evaluation of a process framework called the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS) process. VCAPS is a systematic approach to integrate local knowledge with scientific understanding by providing opportunities for facilitated, deliberative learning-based activities with local decision makers about climate change vulnerability and adaptation. We introduce the conceptual basis of the process in analytic-deliberation, hazard management, and vulnerability. Our evaluations from eight coastal communities where the approach was applied point to four assets of VCAPS: it promotes synthesis of local and scientific knowledge; it stimulates systems thinking and learning; it facilitates governance by producing action plans with transparent justifications; and it accommodates participant time constraints and preferences.     

MONTANA'S EXPERIENCE IN RESERVING YELLOWSTONE RIVER WATER FOR INSTREAM BENEFICIAL USES - THE RESERVATION DECISION1

ABSTRACT: The Yellowstone River in Montana produces an abundant supply of high quality water, but in the early 1970's, the specter of mushrooming energy development in the drainage with its attendant demands for large volumes of water prompted this state to initiate steps to protect existing users and to control future water uses. A Water Use Act was passed in 1973, and a moratorium was subsequently placed on the granting of new permits for major diversion. During this moratorium, various governmental entities were given the opportunity to request the reservation of water for future beneficial uses, including instream purposes. An earlier paper described the reservation applications that were received by the state, and it also summarized the legal framework of the reservation process in Montana. Since that time, the responsible state agency has had the opportunity to review the reservation requests, and its final decision in this regard was announced in December of 1978. This paper describes the details of this decision. Basically, an attempt was made to preserve the integrity of the stream while also strengthening its agricultural uses. In addition, a portion of the flow was not earmarked which will provide some flexibility in reacting to future demands.