National organizations and famine early warning the case of mali(1)

In the Sahelian countries of West Africa, the problems of drought and famine are sufficiently long term to justify the existence of permanent food security agencies. Yet donors are reluctant to fund these agencies when there is not a crisis, forcing poor countries to use their own resources for food security and famine early warning efforts. To make more effective use of limited resources and since the data needs for effective famine early warning are similar to those for basic rural development, information systems to provide data simultaneously for development projects and famine early warning should be developed and supported. In Mali, one of the larger and poorer countries of the West African Sahel, basic information systems which gather a range of appropriate data already exist, but there need to be improvements in the quality of design and the timeliness of analysis to make the information more useful for either development or famine early warning.     

Food acquisition during the African drought of 1983–1984: A study of Kenyan herders

In 1983 and 1984, drought spread across the northern rangelands of Kenya and herders in lowland Samburu lost substantial portions of their livestock. Food aid arrived when 50 to 75% of the cattle had already died, and after poorer pastoralists were hungry enough to sell their remaining productive animals. No pastoralists died of the immediate effects of the drought, but many were so impoverished that their longer-term prospects for remaining as herders look dim.
This essay discusses the timing and content of famine relief as it applies both to Samburu and other food-stressed areas. It focuses on the process of food acquisition during the northern Kenyan drought itself. The more "indigenous" food strategies of herding, hunting and gathering offered limited benefits. Equally, however, commercial channels for procuring food proved inadequate. Herders could not reliably sell animals to obtain cash for purchased food, nor were the grain and sugar staples always available even when cash was on hand. Lacking means to provide for themselves, Samburu came to depend on varied kinds of handouts.     

The Prevention and Mitigation of Famine: Policy Lessons from Botswana and Sudan

Botswana and Sudan experienced consecutive years of drought in the 1980s. Sudan faced a large decline in food entitlement and nutritional deterioration, which translated into famine in 1984/85. Botswana, on the other hand, nearly compensated income losses and averted nutritional deterioration and famine-related deaths. There are important lessons to learn from the famine prevention experience of Botswana. Its strategy for dealing with drought and famine combines policies of steady economic growth with supplementary poverty alleviation and drought relief programs. To provide continuity and stabilization of market operations in times of distress, the country channels sufficient food through market chains, provides price support to preempt market collapse and augments the income of consumers through public income transfer programs to prevent demand failure. In addition, it maintains a responsive and accountable political system and a decentralized participatory administrative structure. While Sudan should develop policies that are compatible with its own environment, it is crucial that it recognizes the critical role of public action in promoting growth, alleviating poverty, and providing timely relief responses in times of anticipated growth failure.     

The Role of Food Aid in Drought and Recovery: Oxfam's North Turkana (Kenya) Drought Relief Programme, 1992–94

Regional droughts carry the seeds of catastrophe: the immediate risk is famine; the long-term risk is destitution. Preventing both situations is an appropriate, if not essential, goal for relief agencies. In the past, responses to hunger in Turkana District (north-west Kenya) have taken the form of traditional feeding programmes. A better understanding of the boom/bust cycles in pastoralist systems has, however, produced new relief strategies. A central tenet of these strategies is the acceptance that relief aid should assume two roles: humanitarian—to overcome food deficits—and economic—to overcome 'income' deficits. Arguments in favour of a broader role for food aid are tested with a case study of a drought relief programme in north Turkana between 1992–1994. Field studies confirmed that when food aid is integrated as an asset into household resources, it can strengthen economic recovery. Ultimately, the extent to which relief operations are able to protect both people's lives and their livelihoods is the key to more sustainable development in drought-prone areas.     

An Examination of the 1990-91 Famine in Sudan

Shortly before and during the harvest of 1990, a series of warnings were issued by concerned international and UN agencies that Sudan would experience a very poor harvest followed by an acute food shortage over the period 1990-91. The 1990 harvest was estimated to be similar to that obtained in 1984. After the very poor harvest in 1984, Sudan experienced a major famine during which deaths may have numbered in the hundreds of thousands. There were fears that this experience might be repeated in 1990 - 91. By the time of the subsequent 1991 harvest, it was clear to all that a severe food crisis had been experienced. There were severe shortages of water and food and very high malnutrition rates of children were noted by UNICEF across a wide range of areas. Despite these adverse indications, starvation deaths were probably numbered in thousands, rather than hundreds of thousands. Famine mortality, which may include deaths from famine associated disease, was similarly low. The initial predictions, it now seems, may have over-estimated famine mortality almost one hundred times. Several potential explanations of the over-estimate are examined. These include prediction errors, government and donor responses to the drought such as food aid and immunization, and traditional community and household level coping strategies in times of food shortage.     

The African food crisis of 1982-1986*

The crisis cannot be attributed to any one cause, but rather it was the product of a number of interacting factors whose precise combination varied between countries. Drought, internal political and economic factors and an unfavourable external economic environment were significant contributory factors. Civil war and externally financed insurgency were primarily responsible for propelling a food crisis into a famine in four out of the six worst affected countries. Within the literature, there is a tendency for writers to emphasize the relative contribution of factors within their own disciplines. So far the literature on the responses, both within country and internationally, is comprised of eye witness accounts by journalists and evaluations by aid agencies of their performance. The international response by governments and the public was massive and unprecedented, but the response by governments, indigenous NGO's and the public within affected countries is often overlooked by the journalistic literature. Generalizations about "the African food crisis" have obscured the considerable diversity amongst countries. This is well illustrated by the experiences of Ethiopia, Kenya and Botswana. This diversity indicates the biased perspectives that arise from focussing on the extreme famines, as in Ethiopia. Research priorities should include studies of systems that coped during the crisis, historical analysis of the crisis, the way early warning information is processed within bureaucratic institutions, environmental degradation and fully integrated analysis of food production and consumption systems.     

The impact of drought on production, consumption and nutrition in southwestern kenya

In this paper I compare the effects of the 1984 drought on agricultural production, income, food consumption, and nutrition of farm and non-farm households in South Nyanza District, Kenya. Survey work covered the period 1984 to 1987. It was the late arrival of the long rains in spring 1984, rather than an absolute shortfall in rain, that caused most of the fluctuations in agricultural production. Agricultural households who were least affected by the drought were able to cope by increasing the amount of cultivated land and by relying more on coarse grain production. Coping strategies for the landless households in South Nyanza were more limited and this group of households therefore experienced greater fluctuations in income between the drought and non-drought periods than did most types of agricultural households. Surprisingly, changes in food consumption between the drought and non-drought periods were small for most households. In spite of differences in production, food availability and incomes, however, the health and nutritional status of pre-school-aged children was not significantly different in the two time periods. Differences in health and nutritional status appear to be influenced more by community-level health and sanitation factors than by differences in agricultural production and incomes in drought and non-drought years.     

Foodgrain disposals as early warning famine signals: A case from Burkina Faso*

Recent research suggests that monitoring key events in social, economic, cultural and political systems may provide more timely, frequent, and reliable warnings of impending famine than monitoring physical processes alone. But empirical data on early warning distress signals in these arenas are slim. Based on anthropological investigations in a southern Volta Noire community of Burkina Faso (formerly Upper Volta) during the drought of 1983–1984, this paper outlines a variety of possible early warning signals in disposal systems for staple foodgrains - the nutritional “bottom line” for farmers and herders in the West African savannah. Pre-famine distress signals in five broad categories are discussed: changes in marketing patterns, non-market exchanges, dietary practices, utilization of agricultural and pastoral labour, and ideological and sociopolitical behaviours. Data consist of both quantitative and qualitative comparisons of cereal disposals in these categories between 1983 and preceding years.     

Food as an instrument of war in contemporary african famines: a review of the evidence

Famine is conventionally portrayed as a natural disaster expressed in terms of food scarcity and culminating in starvation. This view has attracted criticism in recent years as the political, legal and social dimensions of famine have become more clearly understood. This paper draws upon these criticisms to understand the particular conditions of famine creation in conflict situations. Following an examination of six contemporary African famines, it is suggested that the use of food as a weapon of war by omission, commission and provision has contributed to the creation of famine in recent decades. Despite the optimism for peace engendered by the demise of the Cold War, the momentum for conflict would seem to be sustained by internal factors, including economic and environmental decline, political instability and ethnic rivalry. Within these conflicts, the strategic importance of food is likely to remain central. This study highlights the need to link concerns with food security and public health to those of development, human rights and international relations.     

Composite indicators for famine early warning systems

Traditional famine early warning systems use a host of indicators to predict food crisis situations, from rainfall and increased rate of marketing of household durables to the behavior of birds and animals. Although many of these indicators are valid in general, limited understanding of the sensitivity and specificity of the distress signals makes food crisis prediction a highly subjective exercise. In order to make the system more effective and credible, we need to identify a limited number of 'composite' indicators, which naturally summarize most relevant food-related information contained in the specific predictors of food crisis. Considering the chronology of the food production and consumption chain, three composite indicators specific to three different stages of the chain have been identified. The satellite data based Normalized Deviation of Vegetative Index (NDVI), prices of major food grains, and malnutrition rates are found to be correlated not only with the quality and quantity of inputs of this process but also with the final outcome. Both NDVI and price data are widely used as important predictors of food crisis by famine warning systems. What we have demonstrated is that improved sensitivity of the indicators is likely to be due to their inherent capability of summarizing information from various specific measures. Child malnutrition rates also summarize inputs and outputs of the food consumption process very effectively, and therefore should be able to predict community level food crisis in an efficient manner. The empirical results confirm this conjecture by showing that malnutrition rates can predict food crisis probability three months into the future with a high degree of specificity. The use of 'composite' indicators not only simplifies the problem of aggregation, but is also likely to yield forecasts that are highly specific and sensitive.     

The Changing Nature of Conflict and Famine Vulnerability: The Case of Livestock Raiding in Turkana District, Kenya

The context of famine in Turkana has changed in recent years as the role played by livestock raiding in contributing to famine has increased. External responses to famine in Turkana have largely been drought driven, for example, food assistance and livestock restocking programmes, which have failed to meet the real needs of herders. The role of armed conflict in the form of raiding has been overlooked as a common feature of societies facing famine and food insecurity.The traditional livelihood-enhancing functions of livestock raiding are contrasted with the more predatory forms common today. The direct impact of raiding on livelihood security can be devastating, while the threat of raids and measures taken to cope with this uncertainty undermine herders' livelihood strategies. Self-imposed restrictions on mobility negatively affect the vegetation of both grazed and ungrazed pastures and restrict the available survival strategies. Predatory raiding leads to a collapse in the moral economy. Some implications of this for relief and development policy are considered, including approaches to conflict resolution.     

华北1743-1744年与1876-1878年旱灾中的政府粮食调度与社会后果对比

以《清实录》等清代档案文献为主要历史信息源,挑选华北地区清代盛期(1743-1744年)和晚期(1876-1878年)分别发生的两次典型旱灾,对灾害气候背景和灾情、政府措施(特别是政府主导的跨区粮食调度)、社会后果(人口迁徙和动乱)等信息进行整理并分别对比,可以发现1743-1744年旱灾期间政府的粮食调度体现出粮食数量大、来源渠道广、调度效率高等鲜明特点,并取得了良好的社会效果;而1876-1878年旱灾则反之,粮食数量及来源有限,且转运效率极低,由此引发严重社会后果。这种转变,发生在主要余粮产区农业凋敝、南北粮食运道(大运河)阻断、漕运及仓储制度衰败的时代背景之下,重灾区空间分布带来的交通通达性差异,也在客观上影响了粮食调度的效率。     

Reducing vulnerability to drought and famine: developmental approaches to relief

In this paper we present salient lessons learned through the International Relief/Development Project about the relationships between disasters and development. We discuss approaches to famine response and prevention, including the impact of global food distribution efforts on the capacities of people affected by famine and offer criteria for planning famine relief so that it will promote systemic, long term development of these capacities. We first describe a collaborative research project which showed that it is possible for international famine assistance either to promote the capacities of people who suffer from famine so that they are better able to handle future food crises, or to leave those it purports to help worse off and even more vulnerable to subsequent disasters. We then illustrate alternative strategies for promoting development in the midst of crisis by presenting information about a number of famine response programs and analyzing their impact on capacities and vulnerabilities.     

Food Targeting in Darfur: Save the Children Fund's Programme in 1986*

Emergency food aid has usually, if at all, been targeted through feeding centres. In Darfur, Sudan, SCF targeted food aid to the population on the basis of comprehensive household data. The decision to use this approach was taken in 1986 following the failure of both feeding centres and general distribution to meet emergency needs in 1984/85. This report outlines the development of the food targeting system and the types of data used for making allocations. Further research is required in order to find solutions to questions raised by the experience, such as: How can NGOs and government authorities arrive at a definition of need which is acceptable to local government and donors?; What is the most practical method for implementing a targeted programme to a proportion of the population?; Should individuals be given assistance which will enable them to remain in non-productive areas?; and would direct market intervention, food for work, or cash distribution be a more effective and less disruptive form of emergency aid in famine areas?     

Famine forecasting; Prices and peasant behaviour in Northern Ethiopia

This paper, completed in January 1984, begins by briefly outlining the contrasting views of price behaviour during the last Ethiopian famine (1972–1974) put forward by Seaman and Holt (1980) and Sen (1981). A hypothesis is developed to account for peasant behaviour and price responses under developing famine conditions. This is then tested with data recently made available. The paper concludes by summarizing the findings and their implications for famine forecasting, and argues that famine conditions in Northern Ethiopia are likely to worsen during 1984.     

Nutritional Assessments, Food Security and Famine

The widely held view that malnutrition is a late indicator of famine is challenged on the basis of evidence that people often deliberately reduce their food intake as an early response to inadequate food security. This broadens the possible interventions in response to high malnutrition rates to include measures to support livelihoods under threat of collapse. In the late stages of famine, social disruption and distress migration often result in a degraded health environment which may raise the threshold of nutritional status associated with an increased mortality risk. It is important to assess the underlying causes of malnutrition and the associated health risks. At present, the main objective of nutrition surveys is usually to obtain a reliable estimate of the prevalence of malnutrition among children under five years of age, with little analysis of the underlying causes of malnutrition. Experience from the 1984-85 famine in Darfur led to the development of an alternative approach to nutritional assessment which could be applicable elsewhere in Africa. The combination of quantitative and qualitative methods was particularly valuable as a means of gaining a wider and deeper understanding of the nature of the nutritional situation.     

Desertification, refugees and regional conflict in west Africa

This article documents the potential for inter-state conflict in the migration of hundreds of thousands of famine refugees across international borders in West Africa. Nigeria and Ghana, for example, have to deal not only with the effects of land degradation in their northern territories but also with the influx of famine victims from Mali, Niger, Chad and Burkino Faso. These migrations put an enormous extra burden on the fragile and already overstretched social and economic infrastructures of the host countries. The construction of dams for irrigation and electricity generation in international river basins, is another cause of inter-state conflict related to land degradation. The capacity of West African states to find peaceful solutions to these problems is being undermined by the increasing impoverishment and marginalisation of their populations. A self-serving neo-colonialist governing elite is caught in the economic stranglehold of the advanced capitalist nations. While there is thus no short term solution to the problem of land degradation, immediate steps should at least be taken to give legal protection to those who are forced to cross international borders because of drought and famine.     

The persian famine of 1870-1872: prices and politics

By whatever definitions one cares to classify food shortages and deaths resulting from lack of food, there can be little semantic difficulty in recognising a catastrophic famine in Persia (Iran) in the early 1870s. This paper briefly examines the famine in its natural, political and socio-economic context. Fluctuations in prices and in the supply of essential commodities responded primarily to weather conditions, but this response was exaggerated and in some instances triggered directly by actions in the political and economic sphere.     

Famine early warning systems and the use of socio-economic data

Famine early warning systems using socio-economic data suffer from several problems. One is that they cannot, and do not attempt to, distinguish between qualitatively different kinds of famine. The second is that they cannot predict these either accurately or early enough. This is because all the socio-economic indicators produce both false positives and false negatives, the indicators themselves are "late" and because interpretation of the data is complex and time-consuming. The third problem is that within the context of a famine that is occurring, these indicators cannot predict excess mortality. The argument is illustrated with examples from the 1984–5 famine in Darfur, Sudan.     

Changing household responses to drought in Tharaka, Kenya: vulnerability, persistence and challenge

Drought is a recurring challenge to the livelihoods of those living in Tharaka District, Kenya, situated in the semi-arid zone to the east of Mount Kenya, from the lowest slopes of the mountain to the banks of the Tana River. This part of Kenya has been marginal to the economic and political life of Kenya from the colonial period until the present day. A study of more than 30 years of change in how people in Tharaka cope with drought reveals resilience in the face of major macro-level transformations, which include privatisation of landownership, population growth, political decentralisation, increased conflict over natural resources, different market conditions, and environmental shifts. However, the study also shows troubling signs of increased use of drought responses that are incompatible with long-term agrarian livelihoods. Government policy needs to address the challenge of drought under these new macro conditions if sustainable human development is to be achieved.