Towards guidelines for post‐disaster vulnerability reduction in informal settlements

Although the development community has long recognised that securing land tenure and improving housing design can benefit significantly informal settlement residents, there is little research on these issues in communities exposed to natural disasters and hazards. Informal settlements often are located on land left vacant because of inherent risks, such as floodplains, and there is a long history worldwide of disasters affecting informal settlements. This research tackles the following questions: how can informal settlement vulnerabilities be reduced in a post‐disaster setting?; and what are the key issues to address in post‐disaster reconstruction? The main purpose of the paper is to develop a set of initial guidelines for post‐disaster risk reduction in informal settlements, stressing connections to tenure and housing/community design in the reconstruction process. The paper examines disaster and reconstruction responses in two disaster‐affected regions—Jimani, Dominican Republic, and Vargas State, Venezuela—where informal settlements have been hit particularly hard.     

Insuring against earthquakes: simulating the cost‐effectiveness of disaster preparedness

Ex‐ante measures to improve risk preparedness for natural disasters are generally considered to be more effective than ex‐post measures. Nevertheless, most resources are allocated after an event in geographical areas that are vulnerable to natural disasters. This paper analyses the cost‐effectiveness of ex‐ante adaptation measures in the wake of earthquakes and provides an assessment of the future role of private and public agencies in disaster risk management. The study uses a simulation model approach to evaluate consumption losses after earthquakes under different scenarios of intervention. Particular attention is given to the role of activity diversification measures in enhancing disaster preparedness and the contributions of (targeted) microcredit and education programmes for reconstruction following a disaster. Whereas the former measures are far more cost‐effective, missing markets and perverse incentives tend to make ex‐post measures a preferred option, thus occasioning underinvestment in ex‐ante adaptation initiatives.     

Probabilistic cost‐benefit analysis of disaster risk management in a development context

Limited studies have shown that disaster risk management (DRM) can be cost‐efficient in a development context. Cost–benefit analysis (CBA) is an evaluation tool to analyse economic efficiency. This research introduces quantitative, stochastic CBA frameworks and applies them in case studies of flood and drought risk reduction in India and Pakistan, while also incorporating projected climate change impacts. DRM interventions are shown to be economically efficient, with integrated approaches more cost‐effective and robust than singular interventions. The paper highlights that CBA can be a useful tool if certain issues are considered properly, including: complexities in estimating risk; data dependency of results; negative effects of interventions; and distributional aspects. The design and process of CBA must take into account specific objectives, available information, resources, and the perceptions and needs of stakeholders as transparently as possible. Intervention design and uncertainties should be qualified through dialogue, indicating that process is as important as numerical results.     

Vulnerability to typhoon hazards in the coastal informal settlements of Metro Manila,the Philippines

In many low‐ and middle‐income countries informal communities—also termed slum and squatter areas—have become a dominant and distinct form of urban settlement, with ever increasing populations. Such communities are often located in areas of high hazard exposure and frequently affected by disasters. While often recognised as one of the highest ‘at risk’ populations, this paper will argue that informal settlers have been directly and indirectly excluded from many formal mechanisms, thereby increasing their vulnerability to disaster events. Household surveys were conducted across several frequently flooded informal coastal communities in Metro Manila, the Philippines, following a major typhoon and storm surge disaster. The study revealed a large level of diversity in socio‐economic vulnerability, although all households faced similar levels of physical exposure and physical vulnerability. Disaster risk reduction policies and responses need to better integrate informal settlement areas and recognise the diversity within these communities.     

Nation‐building policies in Timor‐Leste: disaster risk reduction,including climate change adaptation

Few studies have explored the relationships between nation‐building, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Focusing on small island developing states, this paper examines nation‐building in Timor‐Leste, a small island developing state that recently achieved independence. Nation‐building in Timor‐Leste is explored in the context of disaster risk reduction, which necessarily includes climate change adaptation. The study presents a synopsis of Timor‐Leste's history and its nation‐building efforts as well as an overview of the state of knowledge of disaster risk reduction including climate change adaptation. It also offers an analysis of significant gaps and challenges in terms of vertical and horizontal governance, large donor presence, data availability and the integration of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation for nation‐building in Timor‐Leste. Relevant and applicable lessons are provided from other small island developing states to assist Timor‐Leste in identifying its own trajectory out of underdevelopment while it builds on existing strengths.     

Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: a macro framework

The measurement of vulnerability—defined here as the asymmetric response of disaster occurrences to hazardous events—signifies a key step towards effective disaster risk reduction and the promotion of a culture of disaster resilience. One of the reasons for not being able to do the same in a wider context is related to conceptual, definitional, and operational issues. This paper presents an operationally feasible framework for conducting this task and measures revealed macro vulnerability as a function of disaster risk and hazard probability. The probabilities of hazard and its perceived disaster risk were obtained from past data and from probability distributions. In this paper, the corresponding analytical framework is constructed using the case study of floods in Assam, India. The proposed indicator will help policymakers to draw on available macro‐level data to identify the regions that are vulnerable to disasters, where micro‐level disaster vulnerability assessments could be performed in greater detail.     

Predicting support for non‐pharmaceutical interventions during infectious outbreaks: a four region analysis

Non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are an important public health tool for responding to infectious disease outbreaks, including pandemics. However, little is known about the individual characteristics associated with support for NPIs, or whether they are consistent across regions. This study draws on survey data from four regions—Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and the United States—collected following the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak of 2002–03, and employs regression techniques to estimate predictors of NPI support. It finds that characteristics associated with NPI support vary widely by region, possibly because of cultural variation and prior experience, and that minority groups tend to be less supportive of NPIs when arrest is the consequence of noncompliance. Prior experience of face‐mask usage also results in increased support for future usage, as well as other NPIs. Policymakers should be attentive to local preferences and to the application of compulsory interventions. It is speculated here that some public health interventions may serve as ‘gateway’ exposures to future public health interventions.     

公众灾害风险可接受性与避灾意愿的初探——以川渝地区旱灾风险为例

在综述前人研究的基础上,以川渝地区旱灾为例,通过实地调查与访谈,从公众可接受的旱灾损失与频率、假定旱灾风险情景下的避险意愿等角度,对公众旱灾风险可接受性进行了初步探讨。结果表明,公众合理可接受的旱灾损失与频率分别在26.5%~52.8%与32.0%~64.3%区间范围内;并以一般旱灾、严重旱灾风险情景为限制线,确定了公众合理可接受风险区域;随着灾害损失风险增加,公众规避风险投资意愿呈现出中间高两头低的趋势,当灾害损失达到约50%~70%时,公众避险投资意愿达到最高,意愿避险投资占可能损失的比重约为62%。鉴于川渝地区的旱灾形势,今后旱灾风险管理的关键,一是加强对旱灾的监测与预警预报;二是完善旱灾风险的常规化管理,发展高效灌溉农业,充分利用客水资源,完善提高现有农田水网建设;三是积极探索公众-企业-政府多方共同参与的高效风险管理模式。     

Household self‐blame for disasters: responsibilisation and (un)accountability in decentralised participatory risk governance

The most important theoretical argument concerning decentralised participatory governance is that it can make a government more accountable for the needs of the governed. Key to this process are participatory spaces that act as mechanisms for dialogue between citizens and local government. However, within Cochabamba, a city in the centre of Bolivia, South America, ‘at‐risk’ citizens engage minimally with disaster risk issues in participatory spaces, despite high levels of civic participation. This is because ‘at‐risk’ populations view disasters as a private/household problem that is symptomatic of household error, rather than seeing them as a broader public problem due to wider structural inequalities. Consequently, they redistribute responsibility for disaster risk reduction towards households, which (re)produces the absolution of government authorities as guarantors of disaster risk reduction. This paper challenges the normative assumption that participatory spaces facilitate democratic deliberation of disaster risk reduction and the downward accountability of local government for disaster risk reduction.     

The barriers to environmental sustainability in post‐disaster settings: a case study of transitional shelter implementation in Haiti

Disaster recovery operations that do not account for environmental sustainability (ES) risk exacerbating the impact of the disaster and hindering long‐term recovery efforts. Yet aid agencies do not always consider ES. This research is a case study of the recovery that followed the 2010 earthquake in Haiti. Using timber and concrete procurement as proxies for broader post‐disaster operations, research examined perceptions of ES as well as attempts at and barriers to incorporating it into programming. Identified barriers can be grouped into two categories: (1) prioritisations and perceptions within the disaster response sector that resulted in limited enthusiasm for incorporating ES into programming, and (2) structural and organisational barriers within the disaster response framework that impeded ES attempts and served as a further disincentive to incorporating ES into programming. As a result of those barriers, incorporation of ES was sporadic and inconsistent and often depended on the capacity and motivation of specific implementers.     

A policymaking perspective on disaster risk reduction in Mozambique

Academics and practitioners alike emphasise that public policy plays a key role to support efforts to reduce disaster risks and to buffer the impacts of natural hazards when they occur. This involves developing public policies to promote disaster risk reduction (DRR). However, the public policy dimension has only recently begun to receive attention in empirical research on DRR. Processes of policy change are discussed, yet less often studied, and more empirical research is needed to advance the understanding of the conditions for DRR policy change. Combining insights from adaptation research and public policy theory, this study investigates the long-term development of DRR policy in Mozambique as perceived by multiple stakeholders. The study identifies barriers and enabling factors influencing the DRR policy process over time. Using data from 37 semi-structured interviews, the study finds six main enabling factors supporting DRR policy change. Among the most important enabling factors are past disasters and broad stakeholder involvement. The study also unveils several barriers to DRR policy change, including resource insufficiency and lack of coordination among stakeholders. The study concludes with suggestions for integrating DRR and policy process research and lessons for policymaking in support of DRR over time.     

Fire risk reduction through a community‐based risk assessment: reflections from Makola Market,Accra, Ghana

This paper explores the level of vulnerability to the hazard of fire that exists in Makola Market in Accra, Ghana, and assesses how this threat can be reduced through a community‐based risk assessment. It examines the perceptions of both market‐stall occupants and primary stakeholders regarding the hazard of fire, and analyses the availability of local assets (coping strategies) with which to address the challenge. Through an evaluation of past instances of fire, as well as in‐depth key stakeholder interviews, field visits, and observations, the study produces a detailed hazard map of the market. It goes on to recommend that policymakers consider short‐to‐long‐term interventions to reduce the degree of risk. By foregrounding the essence of holistic and integrated planning, the paper calls for the incorporation of disaster mitigation measures in the overall urban planning process and for the strict enforcement of relevant building and fire safety codes by responsible public agencies.     

Quantitative assessment of post‐disaster housing recovery: a case study of Punta Gorda,Florida, after Hurricane Charley

Quantitative assessment of post‐disaster housing recovery is critical to enhancing understanding of the process and improving the decisions that shape it. Nevertheless, few comprehensive empirical evaluations of post‐disaster housing recovery have been conducted, and no standard measurement methods exist. This paper presents a quantitative assessment of housing recovery in Punta Gorda, Florida, United States, following Hurricane Charley of August 2004, including an overview of the phases of housing recovery, progression of recovery over time, alternative trajectories of recovery, differential recovery, incorporation of mitigation, and effect on property sales. The assessment is grounded in a conceptual framework that considers the recovery of both people and place, and that emphasises recovery as a process, not as an endpoint. Several data sources are integrated into the assessment—including building permits, remotely sensed imagery, and property appraiser data—and their strengths and limitations are discussed with a view to developing a standardised method for measuring and monitoring housing recovery.     

Communicating uncertainty via probabilities: The case of weather forecasts

Capturing uncertainty through numerical probabilistic statements is orthodoxy in risk science—and most of science and technology. There are a wide range of views on the utility of such statements for risk communication, and they are often seen as being central to the failure to generate common understanding about risks between science and non-scientists. The extent to which probability statements are understood is unclear. If such statements are misunderstood by many, what alternatives might communicate uncertainty better?

These questions are examined in the context of daily weather forecasts. The probabilities used in such statements concern daily events experienced by everyone, unlike the extremely small probabilities about unfamiliar events often used in risk communication. If people do not understand weather forecasts, there is little hope that statements about unfamiliar events using unfamiliar language will be understood. Some jurisdictions use numerical probabilistic statements on the likelihood of precipitation, and a variety of qualitative or categorical forecasts are also used. Drawing on a range of sources including public surveys conducted by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the paper examines public understanding of probabilities and public and specialist understanding of verbal categorical forecast terms.

The majority of those surveyed have basic understanding about probabilities as used in weather forecasts, but significant groups do not. However, there was limited agreement among forecasters on what the probabilistic statements meant. Similarly, there was limited shared meaning between forecasters and the public on the verbal forecast expression examined.     

Lateral knowledge: shifting expertise for disaster management in Chile

Deemed as technocratic and exclusionary, disaster management has failed in its promise of knowing, let alone controlling, catastrophic events. Consequently, disaster managers are searching outside of science for sense‐making analytics. This paper analyses the emergent narratives articulated by disaster managers in Chile to cope with the uncertain nature of their object of intervention. It explores how knowledge of disasters is modified and enriched by disaster managers in what is termed here as ‘lateral knowledge’: the epistemic adjustment by which practitioners revalidate their expert status by expanding key assumptions about disaster risk reduction. The study, which draws on in‐depth interviews with disaster managers in Chile, suggests that lateral knowledge is established both through the increasing validation of community knowledge and the recognition of politics as a critical mediator in the practice of disaster management. The paper concludes by making the larger point that public understanding of science scholars should pay more attention to the adapting capacities of expertise.     

A dynamic model for costing disaster mitigation policies

The optimal level of investment in mitigation strategies is usually difficult to ascertain in the context of disaster planning. This research develops a model to provide such direction by relying on cost of quality literature. This paper begins by introducing a static approach inspired by Joseph M. Juran's cost of quality management model (Juran, 1951) to demonstrate the non‐linear trade‐offs in disaster management expenditure. Next it presents a dynamic model that includes the impact of dynamic interactions of the changing level of risk, the cost of living, and the learning/investments that may alter over time. It illustrates that there is an optimal point that minimises the total cost of disaster management, and that this optimal point moves as governments learn from experience or as states get richer. It is hoped that the propositions contained herein will help policymakers to plan, evaluate, and justify voluntary disaster mitigation expenditures.     

Livelihoods,conflict and aid programming: is the evidence base good enough?

In conflict‐affected situations, aid‐funded livelihood interventions are often tasked with a dual imperative: to generate material welfare benefits and to contribute to peacebuilding outcomes. There may be some logic to such a transformative agenda, but does the reality square with the rhetoric? Through a review of the effectiveness of a range of livelihood promotion interventions—from job creation to microfinance—this paper finds that high quality empirical evidence is hard to come by in conflict‐affected situations. Many evaluations appear to conflate outputs with impacts and numerous studies fail to include adequate information on their methodologies and datasets, making it difficult to appraise the reliability of their conclusions. Given the primary purpose of this literature—to provide policy guidance on effective ways to promote livelihoods—this silence is particularly concerning. As such, there is a strong case to be made for a restrained and nuanced handling of such interventions in conflict‐affected settings.     

韧性理论视角下贫困村灾后恢复重建与灾害风险管理刍议

韧性理论引入灾害风险管理领域,为世界防灾减灾实践提供了新理念,并在国内外韧性城市社区建设中得到广泛应用,但针对乡村地区,尤其是高脆弱性的贫困村韧性社区建设的研究还较为鲜见。该文以韧性理论为基础,结合乡村振兴战略规划,通过对贫困村社会生态系统特征的分析,探讨了新时期我国贫困村灾后恢复重建与灾害风险管理发展方向及特点。研究发现:贫困村不仅产业经济落后,而且还具有自然环境复杂、基础设建设滞后、社会公益设施匮乏、教育水平较低、自然灾害频发等特点。这类灾害多发区与贫困人口聚集区在空间上的叠加,成为我国社会生态系统高脆弱性地区,面临着严峻的防灾减灾与扶贫开发的双重挑战;基于韧性理论视角,通过构建贫困村适灾韧性系统,开展贫困村社区韧性综合评价,调整贫困村灾后恢复重建规划编制理念等,以推动贫困村灾后恢复重建的转型;在此基础上,结合贫困村社会生态系统特点,以建立健全贫困村灾害风险管理机制、探究提升贫困村适灾韧性社区建设的新途径、协同灾害管理与乡村振兴发展目标、开展灾区恢复重建动态监测与后效评价等政策举措为抓手,深化贫困村灾害风险管理实践,提升贫困地区可持续发展能力。     

Beyond men and women: a critical perspective on gender and disaster

Consideration of gender in the disaster sphere has centred almost exclusively on the vulnerability and capacities of women. This trend stems from a polarised Western understanding of gender as a binary concept of man—woman. Such an approach also mirrors the dominant framing of disasters and disaster risk reduction (DRR), emphasising Western standards and practices to the detriment of local, non‐Western identities and experiences. This paper argues that the man—woman dichotomy is an insufficient construct with which to address the gendered dimensions of a disaster as it fails to capture the realities of diverse gender minorities in non‐Western contexts. The paper presents case studies from the Philippines, Indonesia, and Samoa, where gender minorities display specific patterns of vulnerability associated with their marginal positions in society, yet, importantly, also possess a wide array of endogenous capacities. Recognition of these differences, needs, skills, and unique resources is essential to moving towards inclusive and gender‐sensitive DRR.     

中国城市综合灾害风险管理现状与对策

世界性城市灾害的加剧已成为城市化进程中的一大障碍，它也是城市化过程的产物。如何协调城市化过程与城市综合灾害风险管理，已成为当今世界、特别是像中国这样的发展中国家可持续发展的一大难题。在综述了中国城市灾害及其风险管理现状的基础上，通过对其薄弱环节的综合分析，依据作者提出的综合灾害风险管理模式，就中国城市综合灾害风险管理对策提出了3条政策建议：即完善城市灾害风险管理的信息保障机制，特别是灾害预警体系、信息共享体系和信息公开机制；加强城市综合减灾能力的建设，特别是明确城市建设中减灾工程与非工程设施投入的固定比例，完善减灾教育宣传体系和综合灾害应急响应的科技平台体系；建立城市综合灾害风险管理范式，特别是高度重视城市规划中综合减灾规划的改进和完善，加快拓展城市企业灾害保险与再保险和发展适应城市灾害风险的“安全社区”范式。