Livestock mortality in pastoralist herds in Ethiopia and implications for drought response

Participatory epidemiology methods were employed retrospectively in three pastoralist regions of Ethiopia to estimate the specific causes of excess livestock mortality during drought. The results showed that starvation/dehydration accounted for between 61.5 and 100 per cent of excess livestock mortality during drought, whereas disease‐related mortality accounted for between 0 and 28.1 per cent of excess mortality. Field observations indicate that, in livestock, disease risks and mortality increase in the immediate post‐drought period, during rain. The design of livelihoods‐based drought response programmes should include protection of core livestock assets, and it should take account of the specific causes of excess livestock mortality during drought and immediately afterwards. This study shows that, when comparing livestock feed supplementation and veterinary support, relatively more aid should be directed at the former if the objective is to protect core livestock during drought. Veterinary support should consider disease‐related mortality in the immediate post‐drought period, and tailor inputs accordingly.     

Restocking refugee pastoralists in the horn of Africa

Repeated and lingering famine in the Horn of Africa has produced enormous pastoralist refugee populations in a region where livestock production is a major form of land use. Permanently settling destitute pastoralists has a record of failure. It can disrupt host land-uses, causing social and ecological problems, and prevent the utilization of very large grazing areas where pastoralism may be the only ecologically and economically sustainable land-use. Herd reconstitution should be considered an option in relief and rehabilitation programmes for pastoralists. This paper examines a design where the most proven and immediate way of sustaining stockless pastoralists – farming – can be used to facilitate restocking objectives. Using data gathered in Somalia, estimates of livestock carrying capacity are linked with forage resources, land area, livestock units, and the frequency of good, average, and poor (drought) water years, to explore the possibilities for incorporating restocking into refugee rehabilitation efforts.     

Impact of a commercial destocking relief intervention in Moyale district, southern Ethiopia

A commercial destocking intervention was piloted in southern Ethiopia during the drought of early 2006. The intervention led to the purchase of an estimated 20,000 cattle valued at USD 1.01 million. On average, destocked households received USD 186 from the sale of cattle--approximately 5,405 households were involved. In terms of aid investment, the approximate cost-benefit ratio was 41:1. During the drought, income from destocking accounted for 54.2 per cent of household income (n = 114 households), and was used to buy food, care for livestock, meet various domestic expenses, support relatives, and either pay off debts or augment savings. Seventy-nine per cent of the income derived from destocking was used to buy local goods or services. Expenditure on livestock care amounted to 36.5 per cent of local spending, and included the private transportation of livestock to better grazing areas. The buoyant livestock export trade was considered to be an important driver of commercial destocking, demonstrating a positive link between livestock and meat exports, and pastoral vulnerability during drought.     

The Changing Nature of Conflict and Famine Vulnerability: The Case of Livestock Raiding in Turkana District, Kenya

The context of famine in Turkana has changed in recent years as the role played by livestock raiding in contributing to famine has increased. External responses to famine in Turkana have largely been drought driven, for example, food assistance and livestock restocking programmes, which have failed to meet the real needs of herders. The role of armed conflict in the form of raiding has been overlooked as a common feature of societies facing famine and food insecurity.The traditional livelihood-enhancing functions of livestock raiding are contrasted with the more predatory forms common today. The direct impact of raiding on livelihood security can be devastating, while the threat of raids and measures taken to cope with this uncertainty undermine herders' livelihood strategies. Self-imposed restrictions on mobility negatively affect the vegetation of both grazed and ungrazed pastures and restrict the available survival strategies. Predatory raiding leads to a collapse in the moral economy. Some implications of this for relief and development policy are considered, including approaches to conflict resolution.     

An unforgettable event: a qualitative study of the 1997–98 El Niño in northern Peru

During the 1997–98 El Niño, Tumbes, Peru received 16 times the annual average rainfall. This study explores how Tumbes residents perceived the impact of the El Niño event on basic necessities, transport, health care, jobs and migration. Forty‐five individuals from five rural communities, some of which were isolated from the rest of Tumbes during the event, participated in five focus groups; six of these individuals constructed nutrition diaries. When asked about events in the past 20 years, participants identified the 1997–98 El Niño as a major negative event. The El Niño disaster situation induced a decrease in access to transport and health care and the rise in infectious diseases was swiftly contained. Residents needed more time to rebuild housing; recover agriculture, livestock and income stability; and return to eating sufficient animal protein. Although large‐scale assistance minimized effects of the disaster, residents needed more support. Residents' perspectives on their risk of flooding should be considered in generating effective assistance policies and programmes.     

Floods and Livestock in Bangladesh

The effects of monsoon floods on livestock in terms of death, loss of livestock feeds, distress sales of livestock and their consequences for livestock owners were assessed using data derived from a survey of 1000 households in nine districts conducted after the 1984 floods. The results show that there were very few deaths due to drowning during the floods but there were large number of deaths after the floods due to disease and hunger caused by loss of animal feeds. Floods contributed to increased distress sales of livestock, land and other assets. Floods worsened the already serious draught power problem making it difficult for many farmers to plant winter crops on time and in adequate quantity, thereby adversely affecting output. In general, floods exacerbated the livestock related problems which are quite serious even under normal conditions. The post-flood relief/rehabilitation programmes included very few of these problems, if at all. In reality, the solution to these problems should be sought within the framework of overall longterm agricultural and livestock development policies and programmes.     

Entitlements, coping mechanisms and indicators of access to food: wollo region, ethiopia, 1987-88

Vulnerability to famine and traditional responses to food insecurity in Wollo Region, Ethiopia are described. The timeliness of anthropometric and socio-economic indicators of access to food is then assessed, using data collected in Wollo by Save the Children Fund during 1987–88, a period of drought and subsequent food insecurity. The movements of different indicators are then examined for evidence of correspondence at sub-district level. The author concludes that although anthropometric status does not respond as early as crop yield or grain price, a deterioration in anthropometric status is detectable at a stage when livestock and migration indicators show little or no change and mortality rate remains unaffected. At sub-district level, changes in different indicators are not well-correlated.     

Economic evaluation of measles catch-up and follow-up campaigns in Afghanistan in 2002 and 2003

This paper assesses the cost-effectiveness of, and the return on the investment in, the 2002 catch-up and the 2003 follow-up measles campaigns in Afghanistan from the perspective of the donor. The catch-up campaign targeted nearly 12 million children aged between six months and 12 years, while the follow-up campaign targeted over five million children aged between 9 and 59 months. Both campaigns successfully vaccinated approximately 96 per cent of the respective target populations, and are expected to avert an estimated 301,000 measles deaths over the next 10 years. The average cost per dose of measles vaccine delivered was USD 0.40. The cost per death prevented is USD 23.6, assuming a case fatality rate of 10 per cent and a discount rate of three per cent. With more than 42,000 measles deaths avoided for every one million US dollars spent, the campaigns are an excellent public health investment for precluding childhood mortality in a country affected by a complex emergency.     

云南省近500年旱涝灾害时间序列的分形研究

根据云南省近500年的旱涝灾害时间分布序列,应用R/S分析,预测了未来旱涝灾害的发生时间,但预测时间尺度不同,结果也不同,因此仅从旱涝灾害发生的时间序列本身来预测,需确定其能够预测的时间范围;应用Smalley算法分别对云南省干旱和洪涝灾害的时间序列特征进行分析,干旱年发生时间序列的分形维数为0.5498,洪涝年发生时间序列的分形维数为0.4923,具有明显的分形特征,均小于Cantor集合的0.6309,可见云南省旱涝灾害发生的自组织程度可能会提高。分形研究的结果反映的仅是云南省近500年旱涝灾害时间序列的平均状况,由于旱涝灾害的分布具有空间差异,因此需分别研究不同程度灾害区旱涝时间序列的分形及多重分形特征。     

Food acquisition during the African drought of 1983–1984: A study of Kenyan herders

In 1983 and 1984, drought spread across the northern rangelands of Kenya and herders in lowland Samburu lost substantial portions of their livestock. Food aid arrived when 50 to 75% of the cattle had already died, and after poorer pastoralists were hungry enough to sell their remaining productive animals. No pastoralists died of the immediate effects of the drought, but many were so impoverished that their longer-term prospects for remaining as herders look dim.
This essay discusses the timing and content of famine relief as it applies both to Samburu and other food-stressed areas. It focuses on the process of food acquisition during the northern Kenyan drought itself. The more "indigenous" food strategies of herding, hunting and gathering offered limited benefits. Equally, however, commercial channels for procuring food proved inadequate. Herders could not reliably sell animals to obtain cash for purchased food, nor were the grain and sugar staples always available even when cash was on hand. Lacking means to provide for themselves, Samburu came to depend on varied kinds of handouts.     

Severe drought and the vitamin A status of rural pre-school children in India

A community-based cross-sectional study was carried out in six drought-affected areas of India in 2003 to assess the impact of drought on the vitamin A status of 3,657 rural pre-school children. The prevalence of Bitot's spots was found to be significantly (p < 0.01) higher (1.8 per cent) during drought (odds ratio (OR) = 2.0; 95 per cent confidence interval: 1.6 -2.7). The dietary intake of vitamin A was lower during drought and in 81 per cent of households it was less than 50 per cent of the recommended rate. Severe drought has an adverse impact on the vitamin A status of rural pre-school children, particularly those with illiterate mothers and belonging to an older age group (p < 0.01). Communities need to be sensitised, therefore, to vitamin A deficiency through health and nutrition education, and there needs to be wider coverage of vitamin A supplementation, particularly among children in drought-affected and drought-prone areas.     

1961-2000年干旱对我国冬小麦产量的影响

假定在目前条件下的冬小麦作物品种、耕种措施和土壤特性不变,利用WOFOST作物模型,模拟了1961-2000年干旱对我国冬小麦产量的影响。模拟结果显示:1961-1980年干旱对我国冬小麦产量影响较为严重,干旱使整个麦区冬小麦平均减产4．6%,使北方麦区冬小麦平均减产12%。1981 -2000年,干旱对冬小麦产量的影响明显减轻。总体上,1961-2000年虽然冬小麦生育期内降水量持续减少,但干旱对冬小麦产量的影响没有加重的趋势。通过分析发现,我国北方地区冬小麦生育期内的降水和干旱与产量并没有显著相关关系,但春季降水和干旱则与产量显著相关,揭示了我国北方春季降水量对冬小麦产量影响的重要性。     

Probabilistic cost‐benefit analysis of disaster risk management in a development context

Limited studies have shown that disaster risk management (DRM) can be cost‐efficient in a development context. Cost–benefit analysis (CBA) is an evaluation tool to analyse economic efficiency. This research introduces quantitative, stochastic CBA frameworks and applies them in case studies of flood and drought risk reduction in India and Pakistan, while also incorporating projected climate change impacts. DRM interventions are shown to be economically efficient, with integrated approaches more cost‐effective and robust than singular interventions. The paper highlights that CBA can be a useful tool if certain issues are considered properly, including: complexities in estimating risk; data dependency of results; negative effects of interventions; and distributional aspects. The design and process of CBA must take into account specific objectives, available information, resources, and the perceptions and needs of stakeholders as transparently as possible. Intervention design and uncertainties should be qualified through dialogue, indicating that process is as important as numerical results.     

Building resilience to El Niño‐related drought: experiences in early warning and early action from Nicaragua and Ethiopia

Forecast‐based drought early warning/early action has been hampered by both inadequate decision‐making frameworks and a lack of appropriate funding mechanisms. Rural communities in Nicaragua and Ethiopia that have participated in resilience‐building interventions of varying durations demonstrate the value of community‐based actions informed by early warning, forecasts and drought management advice, both before and during the agricultural season. While drought affected all crops negatively, participants were better able to mitigate impacts, were more organised in accessing relief and recovered more effectively. These results are consistent with other research on the cost/benefit of anticipatory actions, use of climate services and appropriate drought management advice. They also confirm the importance of embedding short‐term early action in long‐term resilience‐building. Despite this, formal systems, national and local, remain essentially unimplemented. Systems being developed at global level now need to be operationalised and translated into effective local drought management standard operating procedures for the most vulnerable.     

基于APSIM模型的春玉米生育期旱灾损失敏感性定量分析

作物不同生育期旱灾损失敏感性研究对于提高农业干旱监测准确率、采取合理的农业抗旱减灾措施等有重要意义。干旱发生时,农业用水被压缩,充分利用当前可用灌溉水量以取得较好的作物产量效益是农业抗旱减灾中的重点。目前已有研究大多从水分胁迫试验出发,分析不同干旱胁迫对作物产量的影响,定性分析作物各生育期旱灾损失敏感性。由于农田试验样本有限,无法从统计手段定量研究作物旱灾损失敏感性。该文利用作物模型模拟的方法,基于历史数据设置干旱情景,模拟春玉米生长,研究不同生育期干旱胁迫与产量关系。选取典型年,通过历史气象数据替换典型年不同作物生育期同期气象数据的方法,构造典型年不同生育期干旱情景,驱动作物模型,模拟春玉米生长过程及产量。选用标准化降水指数(SPI)识别干旱程度,建立不同生育期SPI与产量之间定量统计关系,利用SPI变化所引起的产量变化率构建旱灾损失敏感性指标,定量评估春玉米不同生育期旱灾损失敏感性。结果表明:(1)不同生育期阶段发生不同程度干旱对产量的影响差异较大。其中拔节-抽雄、开花-吐丝旱灾损失敏感性较大,播种-七叶以及乳熟-成熟阶段敏感性较小。在典型正常年景下,春玉米播种-七叶、拔节-抽雄、开花-吐丝以及乳熟-成熟阶段的旱灾损失敏感性指数分别为90.5、804.7、772.5和401.9。(2)不同典型年水平下,春玉米旱灾损失敏感性差异明显,其中典型干旱年各生育期阶段旱灾损失敏感性最大,典型丰水年各生育期阶段旱灾损失敏感性最小;典型干旱年、正常年和丰水年春玉米生育期平均旱灾损失敏感性指数分别为862.7、518.9和35.2。(3)典型丰水年景下,即使是抽雄、开花-吐丝期春玉米产量形成关键阶段发生严重干旱,春玉米产量影响较小,表明春玉米单个生育期受旱,相邻生育期水分充足时,产量受到明显的水分补偿作用。     

基于标准化降水蒸散指数的华南干旱趋势研究

最近几年华南地区干旱频发,为探讨该地区的干旱趋势,用标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)和1961-2010年华南地区具有代表性的50个站点的月降水及月平均气温资料,分析了该地区近50年来的干旱趋势、干旱空间分布、极端干旱事件发生频次和干旱持续时间。结果表明,华南地区普遍存在干旱事实,最近10年是干旱最严重的10年,Mann-Kendall检验表明该地区平均SPEI指数从1998年开始突变;干旱化最严重的区域是海南岛、广西南部和西部地区,广东的干旱化趋势最轻。20世纪70年代干旱和极端干旱事件较少,其后明显增多,干旱持续时间也有所延长。由于该地区降水呈现弱增加趋势而温度升高显著,因此推测温度升高导致蒸散增加可能是华南地区干旱化的主要原因。另外,降水频次的减少和集中也是导致近来极端干旱事件增多的原因之一。SPEI指数较好地体现了气候变暖导致的干旱化趋势。     

近500年我国特大旱灾的研究

基于我国近500年历史旱灾资料,对其中持续特大干旱及旱灾个案进行了分析,并对其规律进行了探讨。指出干旱虽是常见的气候现象,但若是大范围、全流域乃至多个流域的持续干旱,则会酿成大灾。如明崇祯年间的持续数年的特大旱灾造成了水源和粮食的极度消耗,自然灾害导致了经济的全面崩溃,最终导致了朝代的更迭。本文以史为鉴,对我国现代面临的严峻的干旱缺水的形势进行了分析和预测,进而提出应将防范的重点集中在对社会影响极大的特大旱灾上,并且应当针对重旱、极旱的减灾对策及早研究和部署,行动越早就越主动。     

Nutritional status as an indicator of impending food stress*

Famine early warning systems benefit from a variety of indicators which together signal the initial stages of food stress for particular population groups. Anthropometry has been used as an indicator in early warning systems, but there are inherent problems in its use which should be understood. Using data from Turkana pastoralists of northwest Kenya, this paper discusses the problems of: time lag between food shortages and changes in body size and composition; use of reference points; accurate age assessment; and establishment of baseline data. Diet composition data are suggested to be an additional nutrition-oriented indicator of impending food stress and one in which problems associated with anthropometry are not inherent. Both measures may be useful in monitoring a population, but their strengths and weaknesses should be appreciated.     

The effectiveness of forecast-based humanitarian assistance in anticipation of extreme winters: a case study of vulnerable herders in Mongolia

This paper presents evidence relating to a forecast-based cash and non-food item distribution among vulnerable herder households during the 2017–18 dzud (extreme winter) season in Mongolia, and analyses the results of a quasi-experimental study evaluating its impacts. An innovative approach in disaster risk reduction, forecast-based financing (FbF) can have short- and long-term benefits to vulnerable households but remains understudied. The paper contributes information on a multimodal FbF programme offering one-off cash grants and in-kind veterinary kits. The data found significant effects of reduced mortality and increased offspring survival in some types of livestock, and that the timing of FbF assistance is crucial, as reported early assistance correlated to positive outcomes in terms of reduced animal mortality. These findings can be used to design more effective FbF interventions, to understand better the appropriateness of FbF designs, and to use early warnings and early actions to help people prepare and withstand disasters such as dzuds.