Assessment of a regulatory model's performance relative to large spatial heterogeneity in observed ozone in Houston, Texas

In Houston, some of the highest measured 8-hr ozone (O3) peaks are characterized by sudden increases in observed concentrations of at least 40 ppb in 1 hr or 60 ppb in 2 hr. Measurements show that these large hourly changes appear at only a few monitors and span a narrow geographic area, suggesting a spatially heterogeneous field of O3 concentrations. This study assessed whether a regulatory air quality model (AQM) can simulate this observed behavior. The AQM did not reproduce the magnitude or location of some of the highest observed hourly O3 changes, and it also failed to capture the limited spatial extent. On days with measured large hourly changes in O3 concentrations, the AQM predicted high O3 over large regions of Houston, resulting in overpredictions at several monitors. This analysis shows that the model can make high O3, but on these days the predicted spatial field suggests that the model had a different cause. Some observed large hourly changes in O3 concentrations have been linked to random releases of industrial volatile organic compounds (VOCs). In the AQM emission inventory, there are several emission events when an industrial point source increases VOC emissions in excess of 10,000 mol/hr. One instance increased predicted downwind O3 concentrations up to 25 ppb. These results show that the modeling system is responsive to a large VOC release, but the timing and location of the release, and meteorological conditions, are critical requirements. Attainment of the O3 standard requires the use of observational data and AQM predictions. If the large observed hourly changes are indicative of a separate cause of high O3, then the model may not include that cause, which might result in regulators enacting control strategies that could be ineffective.     

Accounting for human behavior,local conditions and organizational constraints in humanitarian development models

The current trend in foreign aid is toward small-scale sustainable development projects in partnership with defined communities. However, these projects are subject to the influences of self-interested human behavior, poorly defined community structures and resources and organizational constraints that can prevent full realization of development models. Under these constraints, attempting participatory community development models to the exclusion of other techniques may not be the most effective way to achieve positive change. Instead, development agencies should consider adopting other proven elements of development in combination with the spirit of community development to achieve a positive impact within the community and organizational structures and ensure accountability for success. A small-scale attempted, sustainable development case study in Rwanda is reviewed, as well as a new concept for larger scale development integrating ‘carbon credits’. Additionally, a development accreditation organization is proposed to ensure additional accountability in this field.     

Bacterial community profiles from sediments of the Anacostia River using metabolic and molecular analyses

Background aim and scope  

Though the tidal Anacostia River, a highly polluted riverine system, has been well characterized with regard to contaminants, its overall resident bacterial populations have remained largely unknown. Improving the health of this system will rely upon enhanced understanding of the diversity and functions of these communities. Bacterial DNA was extracted from archived (AR, year 2000) and fresh sediments (RE, year 2006) collected from various locations within the Anacostia River. Using a combination of metabolic and molecular techniques, community snapshots of sediment bacterial diversity and activity were produced.     

Sustainable Engineering Science for Resolving Wicked Problems

Because wicked problems are beyond the scope of normal, industrial-age engineering science, sustainability problems will require reform of current engineering science and technology practices. We assert that, while pluralism concerning use of the term sustainability is likely to persist, universities should continue to cultivate research and education programs specifically devoted to sustainable engineering science, an enterprise that is formally demarcated from business-as-usual and systems optimization approaches. Advancing sustainable engineering science requires a shift in orientation away from reductionism and intellectual specialization towards integrative approaches to science, education, and technology that: (1) draw upon an ethical awareness that extends beyond the usual bounds of professional ethics or responsible conduct of research to include macroethics, (2) adopt anticipatory and adaptive approaches to unintended consequences resulting from technological innovation that result in more resilient systems, and (3) cultivate interactional expertise to facilitate cross-disciplinary exchange. Unfortunately, existing education and research training programs are ill-equipped to prepare scientists and engineers to operate effectively in a wicked problems milieu. Therefore, it is essential to create new programs of graduate education that will train scientists and engineers to become sustainable engineering science experts equipped to recognize and grapple with the macro-ethical, adaptive, and cross-disciplinary challenges embedded in their technical research and development programs.     

Experimental investigation of false positive errors in auditory species occurrence surveys

False positive errors are a significant component of many ecological data sets, which in combination with false negative errors, can lead to severe biases in conclusions about ecological systems. We present results of a field experiment where observers recorded observations for known combinations of electronically broadcast calling anurans under conditions mimicking field surveys to determine species occurrence. Our objectives were to characterize false positive error probabilities for auditory methods based on a large number of observers, to determine if targeted instruction could be used to reduce false positive error rates, and to establish useful predictors of among-observer and among-species differences in error rates. We recruited 31 observers, ranging in abilities from novice to expert, who recorded detections for 12 species during 180 calling trials (66,960 total observations). All observers made multiple false positive errors, and on average 8.1% of recorded detections in the experiment were false positive errors. Additional instruction had only minor effects on error rates. After instruction, false positive error probabilities decreased by 16% for treatment individuals compared to controls with broad confidence interval overlap of 0 (95% CI:--46 to 30%). This coincided with an increase in false negative errors due to the treatment (26%;--3 to 61%). Differences among observers in false positive and in false negative error rates were best predicted by scores from an online test and a self-assessment of observer ability completed prior to the field experiment. In contrast, years of experience conducting call surveys was a weak predictor of error rates. False positive errors were also more common for species that were played more frequently but were not related to the dominant spectral frequency of the call. Our results corroborate other work that demonstrates false positives are a significant component of species occurrence data collected by auditory methods. Instructing observers to only report detections they are completely certain are correct is not sufficient to eliminate errors. As a result, analytical methods that account for false positive errors will be needed, and independent testing of observer ability is a useful predictor for among-observer variation in observation error rates.     

Efficiency of perchlorate consumption in road flares, propellants and explosives

When an explosive detonates or a propellant or flare burns, consumption of the energetic filler should be complete but rarely is, especially in the presence of large amounts of non-combustible materials. Herein we examine three types of perchlorate-containing devices to estimate their potential as sources of contamination in their normal mode of functioning. Road flares, rocket propellants and ammonium nitrate (AN) emulsion explosives are potentially significant anthropogenic sources of perchlorate contamination. This laboratory evaluated perchlorate residue from burning of flares and propellants as well as detonations of ammonium nitrate emulsion explosives. Residual perchlorate in commercial products ranged from 0.094 mg perchlorate per gram material (flares) to 0.012 mg perchlorate per gram material (AN emulsion explosives). The rocket propellant formulations, prepared in this laboratory, generated 0.014 mg of perchlorate residue per gram of material.     

Assessing the Impacts of Forests on Human Welfare: Preliminary Results from the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment

This paper presents results from the first phase of the socio-economic assessment of forest ecosystems in the Mid-Atlantic Integrated Assessment (MAIA). First, we present results of the analysis of changes in the distribution of human population and forest land use in the region. Then, trends in wood products employment and income between 1975–95 are used to examine the economic contributions of forest-based industries in the Mid-Atlantic region. Between 1970–90 the population of the MAIA region increased by 14% (4.3 million people) resulting in the average population density increasing by 25 people per square mile from 179 to 204 people per square mile. Nevertheless, population density was lower in large parts of the region in 1990 than in 1950. Although forests dominate the MAIA landscape, the trend is toward more people owning smaller forest land holdings, with developed lands increasing by 21% and rural lands decreasing by 2.64% between 1982–94. All of this suggests increasing forest fragmentation in all states of the region except New York, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Forest industry has been an important contributor to the economy of the MAIA region, producing an average of a quarter million jobs (2.03% of all wage employment) and generating $4.5 billion in wages and salaries each year between 1975–95. If recent trends continue, forest industry will continue to be an important source of employment and income for parts of some states in the MAIA region; however, the forest industry's importance relative to the entire mid-Atlantic economy will likely continue to decline in the 21^st century.     

环境表现对金融利害攸关者的价值

公司财务表现与环境表现之间的联系日益明显.各公司可以通过促进后者而力求获得资助优势.公司环境表现对金融利害攸关者的价值随资助类型而异,同样也随环境改善的程度和具体细节而异.争取资助的公司,以及政府和非政府组织,应当熟悉不同的金融服务业及其具体需要和问题.     

The effectiveness of forecast-based humanitarian assistance in anticipation of extreme winters: a case study of vulnerable herders in Mongolia

This paper presents evidence relating to a forecast-based cash and non-food item distribution among vulnerable herder households during the 2017–18 dzud (extreme winter) season in Mongolia, and analyses the results of a quasi-experimental study evaluating its impacts. An innovative approach in disaster risk reduction, forecast-based financing (FbF) can have short- and long-term benefits to vulnerable households but remains understudied. The paper contributes information on a multimodal FbF programme offering one-off cash grants and in-kind veterinary kits. The data found significant effects of reduced mortality and increased offspring survival in some types of livestock, and that the timing of FbF assistance is crucial, as reported early assistance correlated to positive outcomes in terms of reduced animal mortality. These findings can be used to design more effective FbF interventions, to understand better the appropriateness of FbF designs, and to use early warnings and early actions to help people prepare and withstand disasters such as dzuds.