Estimating contaminant mass discharge: a field comparison of the multilevel point measurement and the integral pumping investigation approaches and their uncertainties

In this field study, two approaches to assess contaminant mass discharge were compared: the sampling of multilevel wells (MLS) and the integral groundwater investigation (or integral pumping test, IPT) that makes use of the concentration-time series obtained from pumping wells. The MLS approached used concentrations, hydraulic conductivity and gradient rather than direct chemical flux measurements, while the IPT made use of a simplified analytical inversion. The two approaches were applied at a control plane located approximately 40m downgradient of a gasoline source at Canadian Forces Base Borden, Ontario, Canada. The methods yielded similar estimates of the mass discharging across the control plane. The sources of uncertainties in the mass discharge in each approach were evaluated, including the uncertainties inherent in the underlying assumptions and procedures. The maximum uncertainty of the MLS method was about 67%, and about 28% for the IPT method in this specific field situation. For the MLS method, the largest relative uncertainty (62%) was attributed to the limited sampling density (0.63 points/m(2)), through a novel comparison with a denser sampling grid nearby. A five-fold increase of the sampling grid density would have been required to reduce the overall relative uncertainty for the MLS method to about the same level as that for the IPT method. Uncertainty in the complete coverage of the control plane provided the largest relative uncertainty (37%) in the IPT method. While MLS or IPT methods to assess contaminant mass discharge are attractive assessment tools, the large relative uncertainty in either method found for this reasonable well monitored and simple aquifer suggests that results in more complex plumes in more heterogeneous aquifers should be viewed with caution.     

Influence of temporally variable groundwater flow conditions on point measurements and contaminant mass flux estimations

Monitoring of contaminant concentrations, e.g., for the estimation of mass discharge or contaminant degradation rates, often is based on point measurements at observation wells. In addition to the problem, that point measurements may not be spatially representative, a further complication may arise due to the temporal dynamics of groundwater flow, which may cause a concentration measurement to be not temporally representative. This paper presents results from a numerical modeling study focusing on temporal variations of the groundwater flow direction. “Measurements” are obtained from point information representing observation wells installed along control planes using different well frequencies and configurations. Results of the scenario simulations show that temporally variable flow conditions can lead to significant temporal fluctuations of the concentration and thus are a substantial source of uncertainty for point measurements. Temporal variation of point concentration measurements may be as high as the average concentration determined, especially near the plume fringe, even when assuming a homogeneous distribution of the hydraulic conductivity. If a heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity field is present, the concentration variability due to a fluctuating groundwater flow direction varies significantly within the control plane and between the different realizations. Determination of contaminant mass fluxes is also influenced by the temporal variability of the concentration measurement, especially for large spacings of the observation wells. Passive dosimeter sampling is found to be appropriate for evaluating the stationarity of contaminant plumes as well as for estimating average concentrations over time when the plume has fully developed. Representative sampling has to be performed over several periods of groundwater flow fluctuation. For the determination of mass fluxes at heterogeneous sites, however, local fluxes, which may vary considerably along a control plane, have to be accounted for. Here, dosimeter sampling in combination with time integrated local water flux measurements can improve mass flux estimates under dynamic flow conditions.     

Quantification of groundwater contamination in an urban area using integral pumping tests

In this paper, the integral groundwater investigation method is used for the quantification of PCE and TCE mass flow rates at an industrialized urban area in Linz, Austria. In this approach, pumping wells positioned along control planes perpendicular to the groundwater flow direction are operated for a time period on the order of days and sampled for contaminants. The concentration time series of the contaminants measured during operation of the pumping wells are then used to determine contaminant mass flow rates, mean concentrations and the plume shapes and positions at the control planes. The three control planes used in Linz were positioned downstream of a number of potential source zones, which are distributed over the field site. By use of the integral investigation method, it was possible to identify active contaminant sources, quantify the individual source strength in terms of mass flow rates at the control planes and estimate the contaminant plume position relative to the control planes. The source zones emitting the highest PCE and TCE mass flow rates could be determined, representing the areas where additional investigation and remediation activities will be needed. Additionally, large parts of the area investigated could be excluded from further investigation and remediation activities.     

Field demonstration and evaluation of the Passive Flux Meter on a CAH groundwater plume

This study comprises the first application of the Passive Flux Meter (PFM) for the measurement of chlorinated aliphatic hydrocarbon (CAH) mass fluxes and Darcy water fluxes in groundwater at a European field site. The PFM was originally developed and applied to measurements near source zones. The focus of the PFM is extended from near source to plume zones. For this purpose, 48 PFMs of 1.4 m length were constructed and installed in eight different monitoring wells in the source and plume zone of a CAH-contaminated field site located in France. The PFMs were retrieved, sampled, and analyzed after 3 to 11 weeks of exposure time, depending on the expected contaminant flux. PFM evaluation criteria include analytical, technical, and practical aspects as well as conditions and applicability. PFM flux data were compared with so-called traditional soil and groundwater concentration data obtained using active sampling methods. The PFMs deliver reasonable results for source as well as plume zones. The limiting factor in the PFM applicability is the exposure time together with the groundwater flux. Measured groundwater velocities at the field site range from 2 to 41 cm/day. Measured contaminant flux data raise up to 13 g/m²/day for perchloroethylene in the plume zone. Calculated PFM flux averaged concentration data and traditional concentration data were of similar magnitude for most wells. However, both datasets need to be compared with reservation because of the different sampling nature and time. Two important issues are the PFM tracer loss during installation/extraction and the deviation of the groundwater flow field when passing the monitoring well and PFM. The demonstration of the PFM at a CAH-contaminated field site in Europe confirmed the efficiency of the flux measurement technique for source as well as plume zones. The PFM can be applied without concerns in monitoring wells with European standards. The acquired flux data are of great value for the purpose of site characterization and mass discharge modeling, and can be used in combination with traditional soil and groundwater sampling methods.     

Assessing the natural attenuation of organic contaminants in aquifers using plume-scale electron and carbon balances: model development with analysis of uncertainty and parameter sensitivity

A quantitative methodology is described for the field-scale performance assessment of natural attenuation using plume-scale electron and carbon balances. This provides a practical framework for the calculation of global mass balances for contaminant plumes, using mass inputs from the plume source, background groundwater and plume residuals in a simplified box model. Biodegradation processes and reactions included in the analysis are identified from electron acceptors, electron donors and degradation products present in these inputs. Parameter values used in the model are obtained from data acquired during typical site investigation and groundwater monitoring studies for natural attenuation schemes. The approach is evaluated for a UK Permo-Triassic Sandstone aquifer contaminated with a plume of phenolic compounds. Uncertainty in the model predictions and sensitivity to parameter values was assessed by probabilistic modelling using Monte Carlo methods. Sensitivity analyses were compared for different input parameter probability distributions and a base case using fixed parameter values, using an identical conceptual model and data set. Results show that consumption of oxidants by biodegradation is approximately balanced by the production of CH4 and total dissolved inorganic carbon (TDIC) which is conserved in the plume. Under this condition, either the plume electron or carbon balance can be used to determine contaminant mass loss, which is equivalent to only 4% of the estimated source term. This corresponds to a first order, plume-averaged, half-life of > 800 years. The electron balance is particularly sensitive to uncertainty in the source term and dispersive inputs. Reliable historical information on contaminant spillages and detailed site investigation are necessary to accurately characterise the source term. The dispersive influx is sensitive to variability in the plume mixing zone width. Consumption of aqueous oxidants greatly exceeds that of mineral oxidants in the plume, but electron acceptor supply is insufficient to meet the electron donor demand and the plume will grow. The aquifer potential for degradation of these contaminants is limited by high contaminant concentrations and the supply of bioavailable electron acceptors. Natural attenuation will increase only after increased transport and dilution.     

Design and Verification of a Programmable Gas Dispensing System for Exposing Plants to Dynamic Concentrations of Air Pollutants

Abstract

Landfills represent a source of distributed emissions source over an irregular and heterogeneous surface. In the method termed “Other Test Method-10” (OTM-10), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed a method to quantify emissions from such sources by the use of vertical radial plume mapping (VRPM) techniques combined with measurement of wind speed to determine the average emission flux per unit area per time from nonpoint sources. In such application, the VRPM is used as a tool to estimate the mass of the gas of interest crossing a vertical plane. This estimation is done by fitting the field-measured concentration spatial data to a Gaussian or some other distribution to define a plume crossing the vertical plane. When this technique is applied to landfill surfaces, the VRPM plane may be within the emitting source area itself. The objective of this study was to investigate uncertainties associated with using OTM-10 for landfills. The spatial variability of emission in the emitting domain can lead to uncertainties of –34 to 190% in the measured flux value when idealistic scenarios were simulated. The level of uncertainty might be higher when the number and locations of emitting sources are not known (typical field conditions). The level of uncertainty can be reduced by improving the layout of the VRPM plane in the field in accordance with an initial survey of the emission patterns. The change in wind direction during an OTM-10 testing setup can introduce an uncertainty of 20% of the measured flux value. This study also provides estimates of the area contributing to flux (ACF) to be used in conjunction with OTM-10 procedures. The estimate of ACF is a function of the atmospheric stability class and has an uncertainty of 10–30%.     

Comment on "Analysis of groundwater contamination using concentration-time series recorded during an integral pumping test: Bias introduced by strong concentration gradients within the plume" by Allelign Zeru and Gerhard Schäfer

We consider the results of a recent paper in this journal [Zeru, A. and Sch?fer, G., 2005. Analysis of groundwater contamination using concentration-time series recorded during an integral pumping test: Bias introduced by strong concentration gradients within the plume. Journal of Contaminant Hydrology 81 (2005) 106-124], which addresses the field-scale characterisation of contaminant plumes in groundwater. There, it is concluded that contaminant concentration gradients can bias Integral Pumping Test (IPT) interpretations considerably, in particular if IPTs are conducted in advective fronts of contaminant plumes. We discuss implications of this setting and also argue that the longitudinal and transverse dispersivities used in the examples of Zeru and Sch?fer (2005) of up to 30 m and 3 m, respectively, are generally very high for the here relevant capture zone scale (<20 m). However, regardless of both longitudinal and transverse concentration gradients, we further show through a counter-example that IPT results are unbiased as long as the concentration attenuation along the flow direction is linear over the capture zone extent.     

Effects of source zone heterogeneity on surfactant-enhanced NAPL dissolution and resulting remediation end-points

The effectiveness of removal of nonaqueous phase liquids (NAPLs) from the entrapment source zone of the subsurface has been limited by soil heterogeneity and the inability to locate all entrapped sources. The goal of this study was to demonstrate the uncertainty of degree of source removal associated with aquifer heterogeneity. In this demonstration, source zone NAPL removal using surfactant-enhanced dissolution was considered. Model components that simulate the processes of natural dissolution in aqueous phase and surfactant-enhanced dissolution were incorporated into an existing code of contaminant transport. The dissolution modules of the simulator used previously developed Gilland-Sherwood type phenomenological models of NAPL dissolution to estimate mass transfer coefficients that are upscaleable to multidimensional flow conditions found at field sites. The model was used to simulate the mass removal from 10 NAPL entrapment zone configurations based on previously conducted two-dimensional tank experiments. These entrapment zones represent the NAPL distribution in spatially correlated random fields of aquifer hydraulic conductivity. The numerical simulations representing two-dimensional conditions show that effectiveness of mass removal depends on the aquifer heterogeneity that controls the NAPL entrapment and delivery of the surfactant to the locations of entrapped NAPLs. Flow bypassing resulting from heterogeneity and the reduction of relative permeability due to NAPL entrapment reduces the delivery efficiency of the surfactant, thus prolonging the remediation time to achieve desired end-point NAPL saturations and downstream dissolved concentrations. In some extreme cases, the injected surfactant completely bypassed the NAPL source zones. It was also found that mass depletion rates for different NAPL source configurations vary significantly. The study shows that heterogeneity result in uncertainties in the mass removal and achievable end-points that are directly related to dissolved contaminant plume development downstream of the NAPL entrapment zone.     

DNAPL distribution in the source zone: effect of soil structure and uncertainty reduction with increased sampling density

This paper focuses on parameters describing the distribution of dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) contaminants and investigates the variability of these parameters that results from soil heterogeneity. In addition, it quantifies the uncertainty reduction that can be achieved with increased density of soil sampling. Numerical simulations of DNAPL releases were performed using stochastic realizations of hydraulic conductivity fields generated with the same geostatistical parameters and conditioning data at two sampling densities, thus generating two simulation ensembles of low and high density (three-fold increase) of soil sampling. The results showed that DNAPL plumes in aquifers identical in a statistical sense exhibit qualitatively different patterns, ranging from compact to finger-like. The corresponding quantitative differences were expressed by defining several alternative measures that describe the DNAPL plume and computing these measures for each simulation of the two ensembles. The uncertainty in the plume features under study was affected to different degrees by the variability of the soil, with coefficients of variation ranging from about 20% to 90%, for the low-density sampling. Meanwhile, the increased soil sampling frequency resulted in reductions of uncertainty varying from 7% to 69%, for low- and high-uncertainty variables, respectively. In view of the varying uncertainty in the characteristics of a DNAPL plume, remedial designs that require estimates of the less uncertain features of the plume may be preferred over others that need a more detailed characterization of the source zone architecture.     

Pulsed pumping process optimization using a potential flow model

A computational model is applied to the optimization of pulsed pumping systems for efficient in situ remediation of groundwater contaminants. In the pulsed pumping mode of operation, periodic rather than continuous pumping is used. During the pump-off or trapping phase, natural gradient flow transports contaminated groundwater into a treatment zone surrounding a line of injection and extraction wells that transect the contaminant plume. Prior to breakthrough of the contaminated water from the treatment zone, the wells are activated and the pump-on or treatment phase ensues, wherein extracted water is augmented to stimulate pollutant degradation and recirculated for a sufficient period of time to achieve mandated levels of contaminant removal. An important design consideration in pulsed pumping groundwater remediation systems is the pumping schedule adopted to best minimize operational costs for the well grid while still satisfying treatment requirements. Using an analytic two-dimensional potential flow model, optimal pumping frequencies and pumping event durations have been investigated for a set of model aquifer-well systems with different well spacings and well-line lengths, and varying aquifer physical properties. The results for homogeneous systems with greater than five wells and moderate to high pumping rates are reduced to a single, dimensionless correlation. Results for heterogeneous systems are presented graphically in terms of dimensionless parameters to serve as an efficient tool for initial design and selection of the pumping regimen best suited for pulsed pumping operation for a particular well configuration and extraction rate. In the absence of significant retardation or degradation during the pump-off phase, average pumping rates for pulsed operation were found to be greater than the continuous pumping rate required to prevent contaminant breakthrough.     

Uncertainty assessment of contaminant plume length estimates in heterogeneous aquifers

The Virtual Aquifer approach is used in this study to assess the uncertainty involved in the estimation of contaminant plume lengths in heterogeneous aquifers. Contaminant plumes in heterogeneous two-dimensional conductivity fields and subject to first order and Michaelis-Menten (MM) degradation kinetics are investigated by the center line method. First order degradation rates and plume lengths are estimated from point information obtained along the plume center line. Results from a Monte-Carlo investigation show that the estimated rate constant is highly uncertain and biased towards overly high values. Uncertainty and bias amplify with increasing heterogeneity up to maximum values of one order of magnitude. Calculated plume lengths reflect this uncertainty and bias. On average, plume lengths are estimated to about 50% of the true plume length. When plumes subject to MM degradation kinetics are investigated by using a first order rate law, an additional error is introduced and uncertainty as well as bias increase, causing plume length estimates to be less than 40% of the true length. For plumes with MM degradation kinetics, therefore, a regression approach is used which allows the determination of the MM parameters from center line data. Rate parameters are overestimated by a factor of two on average, while plume length estimates are about 80% of the true length. Plume lengths calculated using the MM parameters are thus closer to the correct length, as compared to the first order approximation. This approach is therefore recommended if field data collected along the center line of a plume give evidence of MM kinetics.     

Optimal design of pump-and-treat systems under uncertain hydraulic conductivity and plume distribution

In this work, we present a stochastic optimal control framework for assisting the management of the cleanup by pump-and-treat of polluted shallow aquifers. In the problem being investigated, hydraulic conductivity distribution and dissolved contaminant plume location are considered as the uncertain variables. The framework considers the subdivision of the cleanup horizon in a number of stress periods over which the pumping policy implemented until that stage is dynamically adjusted based upon new information that has become available in the previous stages. In particular, by following a geostatistical approach, we study the idea of monitoring the cumulative contaminant mass extracted from the installed recovery wells, and using these measurements to generate conditional realizations of the hydraulic conductivity field. These realizations are thus used to obtain a more accurate evaluation of the initial plume distribution, and modify accordingly the design of the pump-and-treat system for the remainder of the remedial process. The study indicates that measurements of contaminant mass extracted from pumping wells retain valuable information about the plume location and the spatial heterogeneity characterizing the hydraulic conductivity field. However, such an information may prove quite soft, particularly in the instances where recovery wells are installed in regions where contaminant concentration is low or zero. On the other hand, integrated solute mass measurements may effectively allow for reducing parameter uncertainty and identifying the plume distribution if more recovery wells are available, in particular in the early stages of the cleanup process.     

Cost-effective sampling network design for contaminant plume monitoring under general hydrogeological conditions

A new simulation-optimization methodology is developed for cost-effective sampling network design associated with long-term monitoring of large-scale contaminant plumes. The new methodology is similar in concept to the one presented by Reed et al. (Reed, P.M., Minsker, B.S., Valocchi, A.J., 2000a. Cost-effective long-term groundwater monitoring design using a genetic algorithm and global mass interpolation. Water Resour. Res. 36 (12), 3731-3741) in that an optimization model based on a genetic algorithm is coupled with a flow and transport simulator and a global mass estimator to search for optimal sampling strategies. However, this study introduces the first and second moments of a three-dimensional contaminant plume as new constraints in the optimization formulation, and demonstrates the proposed methodology through a real-world application. The new moment constraints significantly increase the accuracy of the plume interpolated from the sampled data relative to the plume simulated by the transport model. The plume interpolation approaches employed in this study are ordinary kriging (OK) and inverse distance weighting (IDW). The proposed methodology is applied to the monitoring of plume evolution during a pump-and-treat operation at a large field site. It is shown that potential cost savings up to 65.6% may be achieved without any significant loss of accuracy in mass and moment estimations. The IDW-based interpolation method is computationally more efficient than the OK-based method and results in more potential cost savings. However, the OK-based method leads to more accurate mass and moment estimations. A comparison of the sampling designs obtained with and without the moment constraints points to their importance in ensuring a robust long-term monitoring design that is both cost-effective and accurate in mass and moment estimations. Additional analysis demonstrates the sensitivity of the optimal sampling design to the various coefficients included in the objective function of the optimization model.     

Comment on “Analysis of groundwater contamination using concentration-time series recorded during an integral pumping test: Bias introduced by strong concentration gradients within the plume” by Allelign Zeru and Gerhard Schäfer

We consider the results of a recent paper in this journal [Zeru, A. and Schäfer, G., 2005. Analysis of groundwater contamination using concentration–time series recorded during an integral pumping test: Bias introduced by strong concentration gradients within the plume. Journal of Contaminant Hydrology 81 (2005) 106–124], which addresses the field-scale characterisation of contaminant plumes in groundwater. There, it is concluded that contaminant concentration gradients can bias Integral Pumping Test (IPT) interpretations considerably, in particular if IPTs are conducted in advective fronts of contaminant plumes. We discuss implications of this setting and also argue that the longitudinal and transverse dispersivities used in the examples of Zeru and Schäfer (2005) of up to 30 m and 3 m, respectively, are generally very high for the here relevant capture zone scale (< 20 m). However, regardless of both longitudinal and transverse concentration gradients, we further show through a counter-example that IPT results are unbiased as long as the concentration attenuation along the flow direction is linear over the capture zone extent.     

Optimization-Based Atmospheric Plume Source Identification

This work applies optimization and an Eulerian inversion approach presented by Bagtzoglou and Baun in 2005 in order to reconstruct contaminant plume time histories and to identify the likely source of atmospheric contamination using data from a real test site for the first time. Present-day distribution of an atmospheric contaminant plume as well as data points reflecting the plume history allow the reconstruction and provide the plume velocity, distribution, and probable source. The method was tested to a hypothetical case and with data from the Forest Atmosphere Transfer and Storage (FACTS) experiment in the Duke experimental forest site. In the scenarios presented herein, as well as in numerous cases tested for verification purposes, the model conserved mass, successfully located the peak of the plume, and managed to capture the motion of the plume well but underestimated the contaminant peak.     

Assessing impacts of partial mass depletion in DNAPL source zones: II. Coupling source strength functions to plume evolution

Analytical solutions, describing the time-dependent DNAPL source-zone mass and contaminant discharge rate, derived previously in Part I [Falta, R.W., Rao, P.S., Basu, N., this issue. Assessing the impacts of partial mass depletion in DNAPL source zones: I. Analytical modeling of source strength functions and plume response. J. Contam. Hydrol.] are used as a flux-boundary condition in a semi-analytical contaminant transport model. These analytical solutions assume a power relationship between the flow-averaged source concentration, and the source DNAPL mass; the empirical exponent (gamma) is a function of the flow field heterogeneity, DNAPL architecture, and the correlation between them. The DNAPL source strength terms can account for partial source remediation, either at time zero, or at some later time after the DNAPL release. The transport model considers advection, retardation, three-dimensional dispersion, and sequential first-order decay/production of several species. A separate solution is used to compute the time-dependent mass of each contaminant in the plume. A series of examples using different values of gamma shows how the benefits of partial DNAPL source remediation can vary with site conditions. In general, when gamma>1, relatively large short-term reductions in the plume concentrations and mass occur, but the source longevity is not strongly affected. Conversely, when gamma<1, the short-term reductions in the plume concentrations and mass are smaller, but the source longevity can be greatly reduced. In either case, the source remediation effort is much more effective if it is undertaken at an early time, before much contaminant mass has entered the plume. If the remediation effort is significantly delayed, the leading parts of the plume are not affected by the source remediation, and additional control or remediation of the plume itself is required.     

Boundary Layer Emission Monitoring

A new methodology is described for determining the atmospheric emission rate of pollutants from large heterogeneous area sources, such as hazardous waste sites. The procedure hinges upon measuring average pollutant concentrations, at three or more different elevations, while traversing the plume downwind of the area source. A helium-filled tethersonde balloon is used to elevate the sampling lines to their appropriate height. During plume traversing the sampling rate is adjusted to be proportional to the sine of the angle between the wind vector and the direction of the traverse path. The average concentrations are corrected for any upwind, background concentration and then used to derive an average vertical concentration profile. This profile Is numerically integrated, with the wind velocity profile, over the pollutant boundary layer to yield the area source emission rate. The methodology was tested on several large industrial effluent lagoons and proved to be easy to use, robust, and precise.     

Fingerprinting and Groundwater Model Application to Evaluate Hydraulic Barrier Efficiency (Italy)

Remediation actions at contaminated sites are based on multiple numerical model scenarios considering different parameter distributions, source positions and contaminant transport paths. In some cases the excess of scenarios is due to uncertainties in the conceptual model as a result of the spread of contamination through heterogeneities in the physical system. Reduction of project hypotheses and conceptual model uncertainty is therefore needed. This result can be achieved by coupling hydrogeological investigations with environmental forensic techniques, better localization of the source and understanding of contamination history. In this respect, in the present study, compositional fingerprinting and groundwater flow modeling were applied to a former oil storage facility where, even though a hydraulic barrier had been built to stop the hydrocarbon plume, the presence of some hydrocarbons was still found in downgradient monitoring wells. The final aim was to evaluate the efficacy of the hydraulic barrier and identify of the source of pollution. Fingerprinting results indicated pollution with a gasoline-diesel mixture much altered by water washing and/or biodegradation. Comparison of seven groundwater samples collected in wells and monitoring wells was performed by analyzing the volatile fraction (BTEX) and the total ion chromatogram (TIC), focusing attention on: n-alkanes (m/z 85), alkylcyclohexanes (m/z 83), isoprenoids (m/z 113), C4-alkylbenzenes (m/z 134), C3-C6 alkylbenzenes and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). The most probable scenario was then identified by combining the results of fingerprinting with different contaminant paths obtained using the numerical model.     

A probability model for evaluating building contamination from an environmental event

Asbestos dust and bioaerosol sampling data from suspected contaminated zones in buildings allowed development of an environmental data evaluation protocol based on the differences in frequency of detection of a target contaminant between zones of comparison. Under the assumption that the two test zones of comparison are similar, application of population proportion probability calculates the significance of observed differences in contaminant levels. This was used to determine whether levels of asbestos dust contamination detected after a fire were likely the result of smoke-borne contamination, or were caused by pre-existing/background conditions. Bioaerosol sampling from several sites was also used to develop the population proportion probability protocol. In this case, significant differences in indoor air contamination relative to the ambient conditions were identified that were consistent with the visual observations of contamination. Implicit in this type of probability analysis is a definition of "contamination" based on significant differences in contaminant levels relative to a control zone. Detection of a suspect contaminant can be assessed as to possible sources(s) as well as the contribution made by pre-existing (i.e., background) conditions, provided the test and control zones are subjected to the same sampling and analytical methods.     

Probabilistic study of well capture zones distribution at the Lauswiesen field site

The delineation of well capture zones is of utmost environmental and engineering relevance as pumping wells are commonly used both for drinking water supply needs, where protection zones have to be defined, and for investigation and remediation of contaminated aquifers. We analyze the probabilistic nature of well capture zones within the well field located at the "Lauswiesen" experimental site. The test site is part of an alluvial heterogeneous aquifer located in the Neckar river valley, close to the city of Tübingen in South-West Germany. We explore the effect of different conceptual models of the structure of aquifer heterogeneities on the delineation of three-dimensional probabilistic well catchment and time-related capture zones, in the presence of migration of conservative solutes. The aquifer is modeled as a three-dimensional, doubly stochastic composite medium, where distributions of geo-materials and hydraulic properties are uncertain. We study the relative importance of uncertain facies geometry and uncertain hydraulic conductivity and porosity on predictions of catchment and solute time of travel to the pumping well by focusing on cases in which (1) the facies distribution is random, but the hydraulic properties of each material are fixed, and (2) both facies geometry and material properties vary stochastically. The problem is tackled within a conditional numerical Monte Carlo framework. Results are provided in terms of probabilistic demarcations of the three-dimensional well catchment and time-related capture zones. Our findings suggest that the uncertainty associated with the prediction of the location of the outer boundary of well catchment at the "Lauswiesen" site is significantly affected by the conceptual model adopted to incorporate the heterogeneous nature of the aquifer domain in a predictive framework. Taking into account randomness of both lithofacies distribution and materials hydraulic conductivity allows recognizing the existence of preferential flow paths that influence the extent of the well catchment and the solute travel time distribution at the site.