The Precautionary Principle and Chemicals Regulation: Past Achievements and Future Possibilities (8 pages)

Background, Aim and Scope

The paper investigates the development of the institutional basis of the present modes of chemicals regulation and management, with special attention to interrelations with the precautionary principle. Main Features: The paper elucidates on how the precautionary principle has been shaped in relation to chemicals regulation and management since Carson's Silent Spring (years before the principle was confirmed as a policy-principle in German and European legislation. Furthermore, it is examined how the precautionary principle interacted with the development of the present chemicals regulatory regime, in a complex interplay within the OECD and Member Countries. The present modes of precaution in the new EU chemical legislation – REACH – are investigated with respect to the precautionary principle, and tested against two contemporary problems; brominated flame retardants and endocrine disrupting substances. Results: The analysis demonstrates the changing character of the integration of the precautionary principle. The main tendencies are from implicit to more explicit precaution and from a closed expert-orientation towards a more deliberative approach to scientific knowledge and uncertainty. The results demonstrate that the precautionary principle is manifest in both the design of the testing strategy and in policy provisions. In particular, the substitution of hazardous substances with less hazardous is important. Discussion: Despite explicit attention to the precautionary principle, is the present reformulation of the European Chemicals policy in danger of falling into loop-holes that equal problems related to the present regulation of existing chemicals? 'Precaution' has been reduced virtually to an abstract concept that is more or less devoid of practical meaning in the regulatory process. Conclusions: It is concluded that the role of the precautionary principle in chemicals regulation will require continued scrutiny in the future shaping of the REACH strategy. Perspectives: Continued development of robust and precaution-based chemicals regulation will have to involve both new data-generation strategies and new forms of political decision-making, with special attention given to transparency and deliberative policymaking.     

The precautionary principle and ecological hazards of genetically modified organisms

This paper makes three points relevant to the application of the precautionary principle to the regulation of GMOs. i) The unavoidable arbitrariness in the application of the precautionary principle reflects a deeper epistemological problem affecting scientific analyses of sustainability. This requires understanding the difference between the concepts of "risk", "uncertainty" and "ignorance". ii) When dealing with evolutionary processes it is impossible to ban uncertainty and ignorance from scientific models. Hence, traditional risk analysis (probability distributions and exact numerical models) becomes powerless. Other forms of scientific knowledge (general principles or metaphors) may be useful alternatives. iii) The existence of ecological hazards per se should not be used as a reason to stop innovations altogether. However, the precautionary principle entails that scientists move away from the concept of "substantive rationality" (trying to indicate to society optimal solutions) to that of "procedural rationality" (trying to help society to find "satisficing" solutions).     

Possibility to implement invasive species control in Swedish forests

Invasive alien species constitute an increasing risk to forestry, as indeed to natural systems in general. This study reviews the legislative framework governing invasive species in the EU and Sweden, drawing upon both a legal analysis and interviews with main national level agencies responsible for implementing this framework. The study concludes that EU and Sweden are limited in how well they can act on invasive species, in particular because of the weak interpretation of the precautionary principle in the World Trade Organisation and Sanitary and Phytosanitary agreements. In the Swedish case, this interpretation also conflicts with the stronger interpretation of the precautionary principle under the Swedish Environmental Code, which could in itself provide for stronger possibilities to act on invasive species.     

Power analysis as a reflexive scientific tool for interpretation and implementation of the precautionary principle in the European Union

The diversity of interpretation, the subsequent lack of implementation, and the enforcement of the precautionary principle have been important issues in the European environmental discourse for the past five years. The European Commission published a communication on the Commission's interpretation of the precautionary principle on February 2nd, 2000. However, the distinction between precaution and prevention is absent in the EU Commission's interpretation, resulting in the communication's lacking relevance for the precautionary principle. The important consequence of the precautionary concept in policy and decision-making is that it should not be based on an assumed certainty of the certainty of environmental knowledge--but rather on a certainty of the uncertainty of environmental knowledge. In other words, the regulation should, to a greater extent, be based on the management of uncertainty, and risk assessments should explicitly present and discuss related uncertainty and lack of knowledge. The management of uncertainty should be based on setting the acceptable level of risk of accepting a failure to reject the null hypothesis of no adverse effects (beta). This is done by setting the required power (1-beta) according to a socioeconomic cost-benefit analysis. Moreover, the acceptable ecological effect size (A) could also be set a priori which would have implications for the power of a study. Reversal of the burden of proof could be considered in order to resolve possible legal implications for the risk managers.     

The elaboration of the 'Stockholm convention' on persistent organic pollutants (POPs): a negotiation process fraught with obstacles and opportunities

The conclusion in December 2000 of the negotiations for the 'Stockholm Convention' can clearly be labeled as a success. The Convention text was negotiated in merely five sessions of the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC) and accomplished after its fifth session despite the fact that numerous controversial issues, such as the inclusion of new substances under the ambit of the Convention, the acknowledgement of the precautionary principle or--clearly most controversial--the financing mechanisms, remained to be resolved. This paper attempts to provide a somewhat impressionistic account of the negotiations leading to the conclusion of the 'Stockholm Convention' as experienced by the members of the Swiss delegation participating in the negotiations of the INC. Besides a brief overview on the 'history' of the negotiations, it will focus on some issues of special interest--and controversy--to the negotiators, and finally attempt to provide an outlook on the future of the work performed by the INC and the implementation of the Convention. Issues of special interest are environmental policy issues, capacity building and financing, trade-related issues, precautionary principles, and technical and scientific issues.     

A regulatory view on science and predictive models

A lot of scientific knowledge is required to carry out and enforce environmental regulations. The paper deals with the relationship between law and science from a legal perspective. First, some difficulties in using science to carry out environmental regulations are outlined. After this, some legal concepts which try to cope with the problems are presented. Aspects discussed are the precautionary principle, the legal concept of 'state of the art', general standard setting, the flexibility of the regulations, and procedural regulations for the standard-setting process. Finally, the new challenge for science that derives from the legal demand of an integrated approach to environmental protection is addressed.     

Simulating uncertainty in climate-pest models with fuzzy numbers

Inputs in climate-pest models are commonly expressed as point estimates ('crisp' numbers), which implies perfect knowledge of the system in study. In reality, however, all model inputs harbor some level of uncertainty. This is particularly true for climate change impact assessments where the inputs (i.e., climate projections) are highly uncertain. In this study, uncertainties in climate projections were expressed as 'fuzzy' numbers; these are uncertain numbers for which one knows that there is a range of possible values and that some values are 'more possible' than others. A generic pest risk model incorporating the combined effects of temperature, soil moisture, and cold stress was implemented in a fuzzy spreadsheet environment and run with three climate scenarios: (1) present climate (control run); (2) crisp climate change; and (3) fuzzy climate change. Under the crisp climate change scenario, winter and summer temperatures and precipitation were altered using best estimates (averaged predictions from the 1995 assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC]). Under the fuzzy scenario, climate changes were expressed as triangular fuzzy numbers, utilizing the extremes (lowest and highest predictions from the IPCC report) in addition to the best estimates. Under each scenario, environmental favorability was calculated for six locations in two geographical regions (Central North America and Southern Europe) with two hypothetical pest species having temperate or mediterranean climate requirements. Simulations with the crisp climate change scenario suggested only minor changes in overall environmental favorability compared with the control run. When simulations were conducted with the fuzzy climate change scenario, however, important changes in environmental favorability emerged, particularly in Southern Europe. In that region, the possibility of considerably increased winter precipitation led to increased values of environmental favorability. However, the simulations also showed that this result harbored a very broad range of possible outcomes. The results support the notion that uncertainty in climate change projections must be reduced before reliable impact assessments can be achieved.     

A new method for monitoring long-term transport variability in the Baltic

Direct measurements of the potential induced by motion of electrically conducting seawater through the earth's magnetic field may be used to estimate ocean transports. For the purpose of evaluating the feasibility of monitoring the Baltic climate, a number of temporary observational systems based on this principle have been established around the Swedish coast. Some results from these investigations are presented, and the study is concluded by an outlook towards the prospects for future work along these lines.     

Investing in climate change adaptation and mitigation: A methodological review of real-options studies

Uncertain future payoffs and irreversible costs characterize investment in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Under these conditions, it is relevant to analyze investment decisions in a real options framework, as this approach takes into account the economic value associated with investment time flexibility. In this paper, we provide an overview of the literature adopting a real option approach to analyze investment in climate change adaptation and mitigation, and examine how the uncertain impacts of climate change on the condition of the human environment, risk preferences, and strategic interactions among decisions-makers have been modeled. We found that the complex nature of uncertainties associated with climate change is typically only partially taken into account and that the analysis is usually limited to decisions taken by individual risk neutral profit maximizers. Our findings call for further research to fill the identified gaps.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01342-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Understanding and managing the interactions of impacts from nature-based recreation and climate change

Disturbance to ecosystems in parks and protected areas from nature-based tourism and recreation is increasing in scale and severity, as are the impacts of climate change—but there is limited research examining the degree to which these anthropogenic disturbances interact. In this perspective paper, we draw on the available literature to expose complex recreation and climate interactions that may alter ecosystems of high conservation value such that important species and processes no longer persist. Our emphasis is on ecosystems in high demand for tourism and recreation that also are increasingly experiencing stress from climate change. We discuss the importance of developing predictive models of direct and indirect effects, including threshold and legacy effects at different levels of biological organization. We present a conceptual model of these interactions to initiate a dialog among researchers and managers so that new research approaches and managerial frameworks are advanced to address this emerging issue.     

Regulating BFRs--from science to policy

An adequate distribution of responsibilities between scientists and policy-makers requires that a distinction be made between theoretical rationality (what to believe) and practical rationality (what to do). In chemical risk management, it is often necessary to base decisions on indications of risk that do not amount to full scientific proof. Guidelines are offered for how this can be done without infringing upon the integrity of science. Furthermore, it is shown that the application of standard decision theory to chemical risks yields conclusions very much in agreement with the precautionary principle.     

Integrated Approaches to Natural Resources Management in Practice: The Catalyzing Role of National Adaptation Programmes for Action

The relationship of forests in water quantity and quality has been debated during the past years. At the same time, focus on climate change has increased interest in ecosystem restoration as a means for adaptation. Climate change might become one of the key drivers pushing integrated approaches for natural resources management into practice. The National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) is an initiative agreed under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. An analysis was done to find out how widely ecosystem restoration and integrated approaches have been incorporated into NAPA priority adaptation projects. The data show that that the NAPAs can be seen as potentially important channel for operationalizing various integrated concepts. Key challenge is to implement the NAPA projects. The amount needed to implement the NAPA projects aiming at ecosystem restoration using integrated approaches presents only 0.7% of the money pledged in Copenhagen for climate change adaptation.     

Planning nature-based solutions: Principles,steps, and insights

Nature-based solutions (NBS) find increasing attention as actions to address societal challenges through harnessing ecological processes, yet knowledge gaps exist regarding approaches to landscape planning with NBS. This paper aims to provide suggestions of how planning NBS can be conceptualized and applied in practice. We develop a framework for planning NBS by merging insights from literature and a case study in the Lahn river landscape, Germany. Our framework relates to three key criteria that define NBS, and consists of six steps of planning: Co-define setting, Understand challenges, Create visions and scenarios, Assess potential impacts, Develop solution strategies, and Realize and monitor. Its implementation is guided by five principles, namely Place-specificity, Evidence base, Integration, Equity, and Transdisciplinarity. Drawing on the empirical insights from the case study, we suggest suitable methods and a checklist of supportive procedures for applying the framework in practice. Taken together, our framework can facilitate planning NBS and provides further steps towards mainstreaming.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01365-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Development of risk-based air quality management strategies under impacts of climate change

Climate change is forecast to adversely affect air quality through perturbations in meteorological conditions, photochemical reactions, and precursor emissions. To protect the environment and human health from air pollution, there is an increasing recognition of the necessity of developing effective air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change. This paper presents a framework for developing risk-based air quality management strategies that can help policy makers improve their decision-making processes in response to current and future climate change about 30-50 years from now. Development of air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process involving four steps: (1) assessment of the impacts of climate change and associated uncertainties; (2) determination of air quality targets; (3) selections of potential air quality management options; and (4) identification of preferred air quality management strategies that minimize control costs, maximize benefits, or limit the adverse effects of climate change on air quality when considering the scarcity of resources. The main challenge relates to the level of uncertainties associated with climate change forecasts and advancements in future control measures, since they will significantly affect the risk assessment results and development of effective air quality management plans. The concept presented in this paper can help decision makers make appropriate responses to climate change, since it provides an integrated approach for climate risk assessment and management when developing air quality management strategies. Implications: Development of climate-responsive air quality management strategies is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process. The risk assessment process includes quantification of climate change impacts on air quality and associated uncertainties. Risk management for air quality under the impacts of climate change includes determination of air quality targets, selections of potential management options, and identification of effective air quality management strategies through decision-making models. The risk-based decision-making framework can also be applied to develop climate-responsive management strategies for the other environmental dimensions and assess costs and benefits of future environmental management policies.     

A differentiated assessment of the future of biotechnology a perspective from an eu member state

Summary  I would like to stress that the research and development interests and programs, as well as the basic economic expectations to biotechnology, seem to be quite similar for the EU and the USA. However, with a sensitive public and a smaller structured, agricultural structure, the EU approach seems to be more cautious, based on the precautionary principle which is explicitly mentioned in various EU regulations [see e.g. 11], and taking into account the level of uncertainty with GMOs. Biotechnology is more than applying GMOs in industry or agriculture, it is a huge variety of methods and techniques waiting to be assessed and implemented, provided they are safe and useful. In addition, the remaining questions concerning the risk/safety of GMO products have to be fully assessed [12-14].     

Estimating atmospheric turbidity from climate data

Aerosols have several important influences on the climate system. Among the more important of these are their roles in absorbing and scattering radiation, and as condensation nuclei in cloud-forming processes. Despite their importance, knowledge of their spatial and temporal variability and, in turn, their influence on climate, is incomplete. Constraints associated with conventional approaches to measuring atmospheric turbidity – including the requirements for clear skies and costly equipment – have contributed to a paucity of turbidity data. This paper presents a methodology for estimating atmospheric turbidity from readily available surface-weather data, regardless of cloud cover. Using a high-resolution spectral radiation model, clear-sky beam irradiance is parameterized as a function of atmospheric attenuation processes, including scattering and absorption by aerosols. The model is integrated over the day to obtain an expression for estimating potential daily clear-sky beam irradiation. Turbidity can then be estimated by forcing the model with monthly averaged climate data. The methodology can be applied at any location where the requisite climate data are available and therefore holds promise for a more complete, and possibly global, climatology of aerosols.     

Integrated Ocean Management as a Strategy to Meet Rapid Climate Change: The Norwegian Case

The prospects of rapid climate change and the potential existence of tipping points in marine ecosystems where nonlinear change may result from them being overstepped, raises the question of strategies for coping with ecosystem change. There is broad agreement that the combined forces of climate change, pollution and increasing economic activities necessitates more comprehensive approaches to oceans management, centering on the concept of ecosystem-based oceans management. This article addresses the Norwegian experience in introducing integrated, ecosystem-based oceans management, emphasizing how climate change, seen as a major long-term driver of change in ecosystems, is addressed in management plans. Understanding the direct effects of climate variability and change on ecosystems and indirect effects on human activities is essential for adaptive planning to be useful in the long-term management of the marine environment.     

Echoes from the Past: A Healthy Baltic Sea Requires More Effort

Integrated sediment multiproxy studies and modeling were used to reconstruct past changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Results of natural changes over the past 6000 years in the Baltic Sea ecosystem suggest that forecasted climate warming might enhance environmental problems of the Baltic Sea. Integrated modeling and sediment proxy studies reveal increased sea surface temperatures and expanded seafloor anoxia (in deep basins) during earlier natural warm climate phases, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Under future IPCC scenarios of global warming, there is likely no improvement of bottom water conditions in the Baltic Sea. Thus, the measures already designed to produce a healthier Baltic Sea are insufficient in the long term. The interactions between climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the Baltic Sea should be considered in management, implementation of policy strategies in the Baltic Sea environmental issues, and adaptation to future climate change.     

Fisheries regulatory regimes and resilience to climate change

Climate change is already producing ecological, social, and economic impacts on fisheries, and these effects are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude in the future. Fisheries governance and regulations can alter socio-ecological resilience to climate change impacts via harvest control rules and incentives driving fisher behavior, yet there are no syntheses or conceptual frameworks for examining how institutions and their regulatory approaches can alter fisheries resilience to climate change. We identify nine key climate resilience criteria for fisheries socio-ecological systems (SES), defining resilience as the ability of the coupled system of interacting social and ecological components (i.e., the SES) to absorb change while avoiding transformation into a different undesirable state. We then evaluate the capacity of four fisheries regulatory systems that vary in their degree of property rights, including open access, limited entry, and two types of rights-based management, to increase or inhibit resilience. Our exploratory assessment of evidence in the literature suggests that these regulatory regimes vary widely in their ability to promote resilient fisheries, with rights-based approaches appearing to offer more resilience benefits in many cases, but detailed characteristics of the regulatory instruments are fundamental.     

Using phytoremediation technologies to upgrade waste water treatment in Europe

Goal, Scope and Background One of the burning problems of our industrial society is the high consumption of water and the high demand for clean drinking water. Numerous approaches have been taken to reduce water consumption, but in the long run it seems only possible to recycle waste water into high quality water. It seems timely to discuss alternative water remediation technologies that are fit for industrial as well as less developed countries to ensure a high quality of drinking water throughout Europe. Main Features The present paper discusses a range of phytoremediation technologies to be applied in a modular approach to integrate and improve the performance of existing wastewater treatment, especially towards the emerging micro pollutants, i.e. organic chemicals and pharmaceuticals. This topic is of global relevance for the EU. Results Existing technologies for waste water treatment do not sufficiently address increasing pollution situation, especially with the growing use of organic pollutants in the private household and health sector. Although some crude chemical approaches exist, such as advanced oxidation steps, most waste water treatment plants will not be able to adopt them. The same is true for membrane technologies. Discussion Incredible progress has been made during recent years, thus providing us with membranes of longevity and stability and, at the same time, high filtration capacity. However, these systems are expensive and delicate in operation, so that the majority of communities will not be able to afford them. Combinations of different phytoremediation technologies seem to be most promising to solve this burning problem. Conclusions To quantify the occurrence and the distribution of micropollutants, to evaluate their effects, and to prevent them from passing through wastewater collection and treatment systems into rivers, lakes and ground water bodies represents an urgent task for applied environmental sciences in the coming years. Recommendations Public acceptance of green technologies is generally higher than that of industrial processes. The EU should stimulate research to upgrade existing waste water treatment by implementing phytoremediation modules and demonstrating their reliability to the public.