THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON STREAM FLOW AND NUTRIENT LOADING'

ABSTRACT: This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on stream flow and nutrient loading in six watersheds of the Susquehanna River Basin using the Generalized Watershed Loading Function (GWLF). The model was used to simulate changes in stream flow and nutrient loads under a transient climate change scenario for each watershed. Under an assumption of no change in land cover and land management, the model was used to predict monthly changes in stream flow and nutrient loads for future climate conditions. Mean annual stream flow and nutrient loads increased for most watersheds, but decreased in one watershed that was intensively cultivated. Nutrient loading slightly decreased in April and late summer for several watersheds as a result of early snowmelt and increasing evapotranspiration. Spatial and temporal variability of stream flow and nutrient loads under the transient climate scenario indicates that different approaches for future water resource management may be useful.     

POLLUTANT LOADING CAPACITY FOR THE BLACK RWER,CHEHALIS RWER SYSTEM,WASHINGTON1

ABSTRACT: The Black River, a tributary of the Chehalis River in western Washington State, has a history of widespread low dissolved oxygen (DO), anoxia in some locations, and fish kills. As part of a Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) study, environmental data were collected during two summer dry seasons and simulations were conducted with the WASP5 model to assess the effect of biochemical oxygen demand ( BOD ), ammonia, and nutrient loads on DO in the Black River. DO levels were below the State water quality regulatory criterion of 8.0 mg/L in almost all locations during the study. The slow middle reach of the river showed stratified conditions, with anoxia in some of the deepest pools. Based on model simulations, DO was found to still fall below the 8.0 mg/L criterion in the entire mainstem under “natural” conditions, and eutrophication was identified as a potential problem in the middle reach. A TMDL was proposed for BOD and ammonia that would prevent significant degradation of DO in the Black River. To prevent eutrophic conditions in the Black River, a TMDL for total phosphorus was proposed that establishes a protective criterion of 0.05 mg/L for the middle river during the dry low-flow season.     

A MANGANESE OXIDATION MODEL FOR RIVERS1

ABSTRACT: The presence of manganese in natural waters (>0.05 mg/L) degrades water-supply quality. A model was devised to predict the variation of manganese concentrations in river water released from an impoundment with the distance downstream. The model is one-dimensional and was calibrated using dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, pH, manganese, and hydraulic data collected in the Duck River, Tennessee. The results indicated that the model can predict manganese levels under various conditions. The model was then applied to the Chattahoochee River, Georgia. Discrepancies between observed and predicted may be due to inadequate pH data, precipitation of sediment particles, unsteady flow conditions in the Chattahoochee River, inaccurate rate expressions for the low pH conditions, or their combinations.     

Modelling the impacts of strategic tree plantings on salt loads and flows in the Macquarie river catchment,NSW, Australia

In Australia, problems of dryland and stream salinity have recently become the focus of a National Action Plan. In many river catchments, preliminary stream salt load and salinity targets have been set to define maximum permissible export levels in 2015. Afforestation has been proposed as a strategy for meeting these targets, although several studies suggest that widespread commercial tree plantations are likely to deliver net dis-benefits. However, the impacts on stream salt loads of more localised tree plantings in high salt yielding areas have not been quantified. In this paper we use a simple empirical model to predict the effects of various strategic and non-strategic tree planting scenarios on flows and salt loads in the mid-Macquarie catchment, New South Wales. A simple salt routing model is then used to estimate the effect of these changes on salt loads at the end-of-valley monitoring site for the Macquarie catchment. Results suggest that widespread land management interventions will be required to meet the preliminary salt load targets for this catchment. On their own, small-scale, strategic tree planting in high salt export areas of the mid-Macquarie area will not have a significant impact on salt loads at the end-of-valley monitoring site. While widespread tree plantings may reduce salt loads in the longer term, they are likely to cause streamflow losses in the shorter term. Thus, stream salinities are expected to rise initially, due to the different response times of groundwater and surface water systems to land use change.     

Nitrogen and phosphorus flux rates from sediment in the lower St. Johns River estuary

Internal cycling of nutrients from the sediment and water column can be an important contribution to the total nutrient load of an aquatic ecosystem. Our objective was to estimate the internal nutrient loading of the Lower St. Johns River (LSJR). Dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) and ammonium (NH(4)-N) flux from sediments were measured under aerobic and anaerobic water column conditions using intact cores, to estimate the overall contribution of the sediments to P and N loading to the LSJR. The DRP flux under aerobic water column conditions averaged 0.13 mg m(-2) d(-1), approximately 37 times lower than that under anaerobic conditions (4.77 mg m(-2) d(-1)). The average NH(4)-N released from the anaerobic cores (18.03 mg m(-2) d(-1)) was also significantly greater than in the aerobic cores for all sites and seasons, indicating the strong relationship between nutrient fluxes and oxygen availability in the water column. The mean annual internal DRP load was estimated to be 330 metric tons (Mg) yr(-1), 21% of the total P load to the river, while the mean annual internal load of NH(4)-N was determined to be 2066 Mg yr(-1), 28% of the total N load to the LSJR estuary. As water resource managers reduce external loading to the LSJR the frequency of anaerobic events should decline, thereby reducing nutrient fluxes from the sediment to the water column, reducing the internal loading of DRP and NH(4)-N. Results from this study demonstrate that the internal flux of nutrients from sediments may be a significant portion of the total load and should be accounted for in the total nutrient budget of the river for successful restoration.     

Influence of aerobic and anaerobic conditions on survival of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium in Luria-Bertani broth, farm-yard manure and slurry

The influence of aerobic and anaerobic conditions on the survival of the enteropathogens Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Salmonella serovar Typhimurium was investigated in microcosms with broth, cattle manure or slurry. These substrates were inoculated with a green fluorescent protein transformed strain of the enteropathogens at 10(7) cells g(-1) dry weight. Survival data was fitted to the Weibull model. The survival curves in aerobic conditions generally showed a concave curvature, while the curvature was convex in anaerobic conditions. The estimated survival times showed that E. coli O157:H7 survived significantly longer under anaerobic than under aerobic conditions. Survival ranged from approximately. 2 weeks for aerobic manure and slurry to more than six months for anaerobic manure at 16 °C. On average, in 56.3% of the samplings, the number of recovered E. coli O157:H7 cells by anaerobic incubation of Petri plates was significantly (p < 0.05) higher in comparison with aerobic incubation. Survival of Salmonella serovar Typhimurium was not different between aerobic and anaerobic storage of LB broth or manure as well as between aerobic and anaerobic incubation of Petri dishes. The importance of changes in microbial community and chemical composition of manure and slurry was distinguished for the survival of E. coli O157:H7 in different oxygen conditions.     

APPLICATION OF THE CONTINUOUS STORMWATER POLLUTION SIMULATION SYSTEM (CSPSS): PHILADELLPHIA CASE STUDY1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the Continuous Stormwater Pollution Simulation System (CSPSS) as well as a site-specific application of CSPSS to the Philadelphia urban area and its receiving water, the Delaware Estuary. Conceptually, CSPSS simulates the quantity and quality or urban stormwater runoff, combined sewer overflow, municipal and industrial waste water effuent, and upstream flow on a continuous basis for each time step in the simulation period. In addition, receiving water dissolved oxygen, suspended solids, and lead concentrations resulting from these pollutant sources may be simulated. However, only rceiving water dissolved oxygen (DO) response is considered in this paper. The continuous Do receiving water response model was calibrated to existing conditions usinv observed data at Chester, Pennsylvnia, located on the Delaware Estuary approximately 10 miles down stream from the study area. Average annual pollutant loads to the receiving water were estimated for all major sources and receiving water quality improvements resulting from removal of various portions of these pollutant loads were estimated by application of the calibrated stimultion model. It was found that the removal of oxygen-demanding pollutants from combined sewer overflow and urban stormwater runoff would result in relatively minor improvements in the overall dissoved oxygen resources of the Delaware Estuary; whereas. removal of oxygen demanding pollutants from waste water treatment plant effluent would result in greater improvemens. The results of this investigation can be used along with appropriate economic techniques to identify the most cost-effective mix of point and nonpoint source pollution control measures.     

Climate Sensitivity of Phosphorus Loadings to an Urban Stream

We investigate the sensitivity of phosphorus loading (mass/time) in an urban stream to variations in climate using nondimensional sensitivity, known as elasticity, methods commonly used by economists and hydrologists. Previous analyses have used bivariate elasticity methods to represent the general relationship between nutrient loading and a variable of interest, but such bivariate relations cannot reflect the complex multivariate nonlinear relationships inherent among nutrients, precipitation, temperature, and streamflow. Using fixed‐effect multivariate regression methods, we obtain two phosphorus models (nonparametric and parametric) for an urban stream with high explanatory power that can both estimate phosphorus loads and the elasticity of phosphorus loading to changes in precipitation, temperature, and streamflow. A case study demonstrates total phosphorus loading depends significantly on season, rainfall, combined sewer overflow events, and flow rate, yet the elasticity of total phosphorus to all these factors remains relatively constant throughout the year. The elasticity estimates reported here can be used to examine how nutrient loads may change under future climate conditions.     

Hydrologic Connectivity and the Contribution of Stream Headwaters to Ecological Integrity at Regional Scales1

Abstract: Cumulatively, headwater streams contribute to maintaining hydrologic connectivity and ecosystem integrity at regional scales. Hydrologic connectivity is the water‐mediated transport of matter, energy and organisms within or between elements of the hydrologic cycle. Headwater streams compose over two‐thirds of total stream length in a typical river drainage and directly connect the upland and riparian landscape to the rest of the stream ecosystem. Altering headwater streams, e.g., by channelization, diversion through pipes, impoundment and burial, modifies fluxes between uplands and downstream river segments and eliminates distinctive habitats. The large‐scale ecological effects of altering headwaters are amplified by land uses that alter runoff and nutrient loads to streams, and by widespread dam construction on larger rivers (which frequently leaves free‐flowing upstream portions of river systems essential to sustaining aquatic biodiversity). We discuss three examples of large‐scale consequences of cumulative headwater alteration. Downstream eutrophication and coastal hypoxia result, in part, from agricultural practices that alter headwaters and wetlands while increasing nutrient runoff. Extensive headwater alteration is also expected to lower secondary productivity of river systems by reducing stream‐system length and trophic subsidies to downstream river segments, affecting aquatic communities and terrestrial wildlife that utilize aquatic resources. Reduced viability of freshwater biota may occur with cumulative headwater alteration, including for species that occupy a range of stream sizes but for which headwater streams diversify the network of interconnected populations or enhance survival for particular life stages. Developing a more predictive understanding of ecological patterns that may emerge on regional scales as a result of headwater alterations will require studies focused on components and pathways that connect headwaters to river, coastal and terrestrial ecosystems. Linkages between headwaters and downstream ecosystems cannot be discounted when addressing large‐scale issues such as hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico and global losses of biodiversity.     

Coupling PCSWMM and WASP to Evaluate Green Stormwater Infrastructure Impacts to Storm Sediment Loads in an Urban Watershed

We coupled rainfall–runoff and instream water quality models to evaluate total suspended solids (TSS) in Wissahickon Creek, a mid‐sized urban stream near Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Using stormwater runoff and instream field data, we calibrated the model at a subdaily scale and focused on storm responses. We demonstrate that treating event mean concentrations as a calibration parameter rather than a fixed input can substantially improve model performance. Urban stormwater TSS concentrations vary widely in time and space and are difficult to represent simply. Suspended and deposited sediment pose independent stressors to stream biota and model results suggest that both currently impair stream health in Wissahickon Creek. Retrofitting existing detention basins to prioritize infiltration reduced instream TSS loads by 20%, suggesting that infiltration mitigates sediment more effectively than detention. Infiltrating stormwater from 30% of the watershed reduced instream TSS loads by 47% and cut the frequency of TSS exceeding 100 mg/L by half. Settled loads and the frequency of high TSS values were reduced by a smaller fraction than suspended loads and duration at high TSS values. A widely distributed network of infiltration‐focused projects is an effective stormwater management strategy to mitigate sediment stress. Coupling rainfall–runoff and water quality models is an important way to integrate watershed‐wide impacts and evaluate how management directly affects urban stream health.     

Controls on sediment delivery in coastal plain rivers

Rivers crossing coastal plains are often inefficient conveyors of sediment, so that changes in upstream sediment dynamics are not evident at the river mouth. Extensive accommodation space and low stream power often result in extensive alluvial storage upstream of estuaries and correspondingly low sediment loads at the river mouth. However, gaging stations with sediment records are typically well upstream of the coast, and thus tend to overestimate sediment yields by under-representing the lower coastal plain and because there is often a net loss of sediment in lower coastal plain reaches. Studies of alluvial sediment storage have generally focused on accommodation space, but, using examples from Texas, we show that low transport capacity controlled largely by slope is a crucial factor.     

Estimating monthly total nitrogen concentration in streams by using artificial neural network

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is a flexible and popular tool for predicting the non-linear behavior in the environmental system. Here, the feed-forward ANN model was used to investigate the relationship among the land use, fertilizer, and hydrometerological conditions in 59 river basins over Japan and then applied to estimate the monthly river total nitrogen concentration (TNC). It was shown by the sensitivity analysis, that precipitation, temperature, river discharge, forest area and urban area have high relationships with TNC. The ANN structure having eight inputs and one hidden layer with seven nodes gives the best estimate of TNC. The 1:1 scatter plots of predicted versus measured TNC were closely aligned and provided coefficients of errors of 0.98 and 0.93 for ANNs calibration and validation, respectively. From the results obtained, the ANN model gave satisfactory predictions of stream TNC and appears to be a useful tool for prediction of TNC in Japanese streams. It indicates that the ANN model was able to provide accurate estimates of nitrogen concentration in streams. Its application to such environmental data will encourage further studies on prediction of stream TNC in ungauged rivers and provide a useful tool for water resource and environment managers to obtain a quick preliminary assessment of TNC variations.     

WATER LOSSES ALONG A REACH OF THE PECOS RIVER IN NEW MEXICO1

ABSTRACT: A reach of the Pecos River, located in eastern New Mexico, was examined to evaluate losses of river flows due to evaporation, seepage, and transpiration. An accurate assessment of the water losses along this reach is critical for determining how water rights are adjudicated for water users in the Pecos basin and interstate compact accounting. Water losses significantly impact flows through critical habitat for species protected under the Endangered Species Act. Daily losses of river flows were analyzed for the study reach that extends from immediately below the Pecos River confluence with Taiban Creek to the United States Geological Survey (USGS) gage near Acme. The analysis was completed with consideration for other processes including flood wave travel times and attenuation along with stream bank storage and returns. The analysis was completed using daily stream flow data from USGS gages located along the study reach. Empirical seasonal functions were developed to relate flow loss to the flow rate in the river. The functions were ultimately developed to provide a method for comparing the effects of different river flows on the available water supply.     

USING ARTIFICIAL STREAMS TO EVALUATE PERTURBATION EFFECTS ON AUFWUCHS STRUCTURE AND FUNCTION1

ABSTRACT: Artificial streams can assist in assessing the potential impact of pollutants on the structure and function of aquatic communities. While most artificial streams are constructed within a controlled environment or are maintained by recirculating water, we constructed a series of artificial streams along a river bank using river water on a once through basis. This system was used to develop and test methods for structural and functional analyses of Aufwuchs communities. Only the flow rate and stream depth were controlled while individual streams were perturbed to obtain communities of altered ecological condition. This experimental system provided a relatively inexpensive series of treated and untreated streams which allowed an evaluation and comparison of methods using communities under various stressed and nonstressed conditions. Without the stabilizing effects of a controlled atmosphere or recirculating water, our approach demonstrated a degree of variability which approached that of the river. We inferred that the Aufwuchs community present in the artificial streams maintained a high degree of structural complexity and functional dynamism, providing a strong test of our methods and an opportunity to examine current ecological theory.     

A hydrological modeling framework for defining achievable performance standards for pesticides

This paper proposes a hydrological modeling framework to define achievable performance standards (APSs) for pesticides that could be attained after implementation of recommended management actions, agricultural practices, and available technologies (i.e., beneficial management practices [BMPs]). An integrated hydrological modeling system, Gestion Intégrée des Bassins versants à l'aide d'un Système Informatisé, was used to quantify APSs for six Canadian watersheds for eight pesticides: atrazine, carbofuran, dicamba, glyphosate, MCPB, MCPA, metolachlor, and 2,4-D. Outputs from simulation runs to predict pesticide concentration under current conditions and in response to implementation of two types of beneficial management practices (reduced pesticide application rate and 1- to 10-m-wide edge-of-field and/or riparian buffer strips, implemented singly or in combination) showed that APS values for scenarios with BMPs were less than those for current conditions. Moreover, APS values at the outlet of watersheds were usually less than ecological thresholds of good condition, when available. Upstream river reaches were at greater risk of having concentrations above a given ecological thresholds because of limited stream flows and overland loads of pesticides. Our integrated approach of "hydrological modeling-APS estimation-ecotoxicological significance" provides the most effective interpretation possible, for management and education purposes, of the potential biological impact of predicted pesticide concentrations in rivers.     

MODELING NITROGEN TRANSPORT IN THE IPSWICH RIVER BASIN,MASSACHUSETTS, USING A HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION PROGRAM IN FORTRAN (HSPF)1

ABSTRACT: Increased riverine nitrogen (N) fluxes have been strongly correlated with land use changes and are now one of the largest pollution problems in the coastal region of the United States. In the present study, the Hydrological Simulation Program‐FORTRAN (HSPF) is used to simulate transport of N in the Ipswich River basin in Massachusetts and to evaluate the effect of future land use scenarios on the water quality of the river. Model results show that under a land use change scenario constructed with restrictions from environmental protection laws, where 44 percent of the forest in the basin was converted to urban land, stream nitrate concentrations increased by about 30 percent of the present values. When an extreme land use scenario was used, and 100 percent of the forest was converted to urban land, concentrations doubled in comparison to present values. Model simulations also showed that present stream nitrate concentrations might be four times greater than they were prior to urbanization. While pervious lands with high density residential land use generated runoff with the highest N concentrations in HSPF simulations, the results suggested that denitrification in the riparian zone and wetlands coupled with the hydrology of the basin are likely to control the magnitude of nitrate loads to the aquatic system. The simulation results showed that HSPF can predict the general patterns of inorganic N concentrations in the Ipswich River and tributaries. Nevertheless, HSPF has some difficulty simulating the extreme variability of the observed data throughout the main stem and tributaries, probably because of limitations in the representation of wetlands and riparian zones in the model, where N processes such as denitrification seem to play a major role in controlling the transport of N from the terrestrial system to the river reaches.     

Change of stream network connectivity under polder-type flood control measure

Polder is usually used for flood control in the river delta area. With the rapid development of urbanization, the dikes or pumps cut the original stream network system, and the stream network connectivity (SNC) and the river system pattern have changed. The dikes or pumps generally force up the river's water level, and regional flood formation mechanisms and processes have changed. In order to quantitatively describe the characteristics of polder-type flood control measure (PFCM) and the change law of SNC, firstly, the streams inside polders were generalized as virtual streams, a hydrological-hydrodynamic model was constructed by connecting Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System and MIKE11 model. Secondly, an SNC evaluation model was constructed based on flow resistance and hydrological process. Finally, the SNC under different scenarios was simulated and evaluated to reveal the influence of the PFCM on SNC. And the dominance analysis method obtained the main control factors of SNC changes. The results showed that the pumps as the main drainage facility under the PFCM, SNC after the opening of the pumps were increased by 0.060, 0.103, and 0.311 for 50%, 30%, and 3% frequency flood scales compared with the pumps closed, respectively. However, compared with the natural stream (without the PFCM), the SNC decreased by 0.391, 0.456, and 0.487, respectively, at the same time of the same flood scale. The PFCM negatively impacted the SNC, and the number of pumps was the main control factor of the SNC.     

The release of phosphorus to porewater and surface water from river riparian sediments

Sediments can be both a source and a sink of dissolved phosphorus (P) in surface water and shallow groundwater. Using laboratory mesocosms, we studied the influence of flooding with deionized water and simulated river water on P release to solution using sediment columns taken from a riparian wetland. The mesocosm incubation results showed that rather than retaining nutrients, sediments in the riparian zone may be a significant source of P. Concentrations of dissolved P in porewater reached more than 3 mg L(-1) and in surface water over 0.8 mg L(-1) within a month of sediment inundation. The reductive dissolution of P-bearing iron (Fe) oxides was the likely mechanism responsible for P release. Dissolved P to Fe molar ratios in anaerobic samples were approximately 0.45 when columns were flooded with water that simulated the chemistry of the adjacent river. This suggests there was insufficient Fe in the anaerobic samples to precipitate all P if the solutions were oxygenated or transported to an aerobic environment. If the anaerobic wetland solutions were delivered to oxygenated rivers and streams adjacent to the riparian zone, the equilibrium concentration of P in these systems could rise. The timing of P release was inversely related to the nitrate (NO3-) concentration in floodwater. This indicates that in riparian zones receiving low nitrate loads, or where NO3- loads are being progressively reduced, the risk of dissolved P release may increase. These findings present particular challenges for restoration and management in riparian areas.     

A MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF SALMONID SPAWNING HABITAT1

ABSTRACT: A simulation model [Salmonid Spawning Analysis Model (SSAM)] was developed as a management tool to evaluate the relative impacts of stream sediment load and water temperature on salmonid egg survival. The model is useful for estimating acceptable sediment loads to spawning habitat that may result from upland development, such as logging and agriculture. Software in common use in the USA were adapted for use in gravel bedded rivers and linked to simulate water temperature (the USFWS Instream Water Temperature, SNTEMP model) and water and sediment routing (the USAE Scour and Deposition in Rivers and Reservoirs, HEC-6 model, version 3.2). These models drive the redd (spawning nest) model (the USDA-ABS Sediment Intrusion Dissolved Oxygen SIDO model) which simulates sediment intrusion and dissolved oxygen concentration in the redd environment. The SSAM model predictions of dissolved oxygen and water temperature compared favorably with field data from artificial redds containing hatchery chinook salmon eggs.     

Identifying stream temperature variation by coupling meteorological,hydrological, and water temperature models

In this study, we demonstrate a physically based semi-Lagrangian water temperature model known as the River Basin Model (RBM) coupled with the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model and Weather Research & Forecasting Model in the Mississippi River Basin (MRB). The results of this coupling compare favorably with observed water temperature data available from six river gages located in the MRB. Further sensitivity analysis indicates that the mean water temperatures may increase by 1.3, 1.5, and 1.8°C in northern, central, and southern MRB zones under a hypothetical uniform air temperature increase of 3.0°C. If air temperatures increase uniformly by 6.0°C in this scenario, then water temperatures are projected to increase by 3.3, 3.5, and 4.0°C. Lastly, downscaled air temperatures from a global climate model are used to drive the coupled VIC and RBM model from 2020 to 2099. Average stream temperatures from 2020 to 2099 increase by 1.0 to 8.0°C above 1950 to 2010 average water temperatures, with non-uniform increases along the river. In some portions of the MRB, stream temperatures could increase above survival thresholds for several native fish species, which are critical components of the stream ecosystem. In addition, increased water temperatures interact with nutrient loadings from sources throughout the MRB, which is expected to exacerbate harmful algal blooms and dead zones in the Gulf of Mexico.