论重大危险源监控与重大事故隐患治理

重大危险源是指工业活动中危险物质或能量超过临界量的设备、设施或场所。工业活动中重大火灾、爆炸、毒物泄漏事故 ,尽管其起因和影响不尽相同 ,但都有一个共同的特征 :其根源是存在大量的易燃、易爆、有毒物质或具有引发灾难事故的能量。重大危险源同重大事故隐患是两个既有联系又有区别的概念 ,前者强调设备、设施、场所中存在或固有的危险物质 (能量 )的多少 ,后者则可以认为是出现明显缺陷 (人的不安全行为 ,物的不安全状态或管理上的缺陷 )的重大危险源。从重大事故隐患治理到重大危险源普查 (申报 )、监控是预防重大事故理论与技术的进步 ,是从源头抓预防 ,是落实预防为主 ,关口前移的具体体现 ,也是国家安全生产法律、法规的强制要求。笔者论述了重大危险源监控、重大事故隐患治理与重大事故预防之间的区别与联系 ,用事故是能量意外释放的观点 ,论述了安全是相对的、危险是永存的、事故是可以预防的 ;分析了建立重大危险源监控体系与重大事故预防控制体系的几大要素 ,即危险源辨识、评价、分级管理与监控 ,应急救援等。     

大型原油储罐设计中主要安全问题及对策

大型原油储罐储量很大,潜在危险性高,一旦发生事故,损失将十分惨重。为此,在分析了大型原油储罐工程危险性的基础上,重点论述了大型原油储罐设计中的主要安全问题及其对策,包括储罐地基和基础、浮顶储罐密封装置、信号报警联锁系统、排水设计、防腐蚀措施等,特别针对大型原油储罐的特点,详细讨论了浮盘沉底事故原因并介绍了预防浮盘沉底的设计要求,为工程设计提供了有价值的参考依据。     

用于工业机器设计的安全性分析模式及方法研究

工业机器也属职业事故的重要危险源之一。在其设计时 ,有效地进行安全性分析是消除和控制工业机器中存在的固有危险的最佳途径。为此 ,推荐了一种用于工业机器的安全分析模式 ;并对已有的安全分析方法进行了重点选择 ,将供设计人员使用的安全分析方法从百余种减少到 11种 ;还对这些方法进行了分类 ,可供设计人员在设计工业机器时 ,较方便地选择和系统地应用。     

基于风险管理方法的危险源评价分级研究

以化工企业内涉及危险物质的装置、设施而构成的危险源为研究对象,在简要分析重大危险源评价分级的作用与方法的基础上,针对中小型化工企业,提出基于风险管理方法的危险源评价分级概念。通过计算危险源引发事故的概率和事故后果来确定危险源的风险值,并将其分为4个等级,指导企业制定合适的安全管理制度、使用恰当的安全技术措施,以最小化的代价确保危险源安全运行,从而提高中小型化工企业的危险源管理水平。     

Design and evaluation of safety measures using a newly proposed methodology “SCAP”

An increase in the number of accidents in the process industries and the concomitant damage potential is a cause of concern in many countries. In order to control the alarming risk posed by these industries, the United States government has asked each manufacturing facility to carry out a worst-case disaster study and to develop alternatives to control this high risk. Other developed and developing countries such as Canada and India have taken similar measures.Recently Khan and Abbasi (J. Loss Prevent. Process Ind. (2001a) in press) have proposed a maximum credible accident analysis with a maximum credible accident scenario approach, which scores over a worst-case scenario approach for being realistic and reliable. In another effort, Khan and Abbasi (J. Hazard. Mater. (2001b) in press) have developed an efficient and effective algorithm for probabilistic fault tree analysis. These two approaches have been combined to yield a new methodology for a more realistic, reliable, and efficient safety evaluation and the design of risk control measures. The methodology is named SCAP: Safety, Credible Accident, Probabilistic fault tree analysis. The methodology is comprised of four steps of which the last step is a feedback loop. This paper recapitulates this methodology and demonstrates its application to ethylene oxide (EO) plants. The application of SCAP to EO plants identifies five units as risky and needing more safety measures. Further, this study recommends safety measures and demonstrates through SCAP that their implementation lower the risk to an acceptable level.     

电炉生产系统工伤事故控制技术的研究

本文是综合应用安全系统工程的原理和方法,控制生产系统的工伤事故,并采用系统辨识理论,辨识生产中的潜在危险和后果,定量评价潜在危险的危害程度和发生概率;综合应用数理统计、工程逻辑、故障树、事件树、管理失误和风险树等多种分析方法,对电炉炼钢生产的原料、冶炼、铸锭、天车、电气、机械等子系统进行了事故发生可能性的预分析和安全状况评价。据分析评价结果,结合生产实际和管理现状,制定了控制事故的综合技术对策,并开发了一系列适合于我国企业安全管理实际需要的计算机软件。     

A quantitative risk management framework for dust and hybrid mixture explosions

Dust and hybrid-mixture explosions continue to occur in industrial processes that handle fine powders and flammable gases. Considerable research is therefore conducted throughout the world with the objective of both preventing the occurrence and mitigating the consequences of such events. In the current work, research has been undertaken to help move the field of dust explosion prevention and mitigation from its current emphasis on hazards (with an accompanying reliance on primarily engineered safety features) to a focus on risk (with an accompanying reliance on hierarchical, risk-based, decision-making tools). Employing the principles of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of dust and hybrid-mixture explosions, a methodological framework for the management of these risks has been developed.The QRA framework is based on hazard identification via credible accident scenarios for dust explosions, followed by probabilistic fault-tree analysis (using Relex – Reliability Excellence – software) and consequence severity analysis (using DESC – Dust Explosion Simulation Code – software). Identification of risk reduction measures in the framework is accomplished in a hierarchical manner by considering inherent safety measures, passive and active engineered devices, and procedural measures (in that order). An industrial case study is presented to show how inherent safety measures such as dust minimization and dust/process moderation can be helpful in reducing dust and hybrid-mixture explosion consequences in a 400-m³ polyethylene storage silo.     

Does the potential safety risk affect whether particular construction hazards are recognized or not?

Introduction: Evidence from the global construction industry suggests that an unacceptable number of safety hazards remain unrecognized in construction workplaces. Unfortunately, there isn’t a sufficient understanding of why particular safety hazards remain unrecognized. Such an understanding is important to address the issue of poor hazard recognition and develop remedial interventions. A recent exploratory effort provided anecdotal evidence that workers often fail to recognize safety hazards that are expected to impose relatively lower levels of safety risk. In other words, the research demonstrated that the underlying risk imposed by a safety hazard can affect whether a hazard will be recognized or not. Method: The presented research focused on empirically testing this preliminary finding. More specifically, the study tested the proposition that Construction workers are more likely to recognize safety hazards that impose higher levels of safety risk than those that impose relatively lower levels of safety risk. The research goals were accomplished through a number of steps. First, a set of 16 construction case images depicting a variety of construction operations that included a number of known safety hazards was presented to a panel of four construction safety experts. The experts were tasked with examining each of the known safety hazards and providing a rating of the relative safety risk that the individual hazards impose. Having obtained an estimate of the underlying safety risk, a hazard recognition activity was administered to 287 workers recruited from 57 construction workplaces in the United States. The hazard recognition activity involved the examination of a random sample of two construction case images that were previously examined by the expert panel and reporting relevant safety hazards. Results: The results of the study provided support for the proposition that workers are more likely to recognize hazards that impose relatively higher levels of safety risk. Practical Applications: The findings of the study can be leveraged to improve existing hazard recognition methods and develop more robust interventions to address the issue of poor hazard recognition levels.     

城市控制爆破工程的爆破事故和爆破公害研究

爆破事故和爆破公害是关于爆破工程中的安全问题 ,笔者对爆破事故中的早爆、拒爆和爆破公害中的爆破振动、爆破空气冲击波、爆破飞石进行了详细论述 ,分析了爆破事故及公害产生的原因 ,从而给出了相应的防止措施 ;进而依法采取了爆破安全管理可行办法     

Reducing unknown risk: The safety engineers’ new horizon

A significant gap exists between accident scenarios as foreseen by company safety management systems and actual scenarios observed in major accidents.The mere fact that this gap exists is pointing at flawed risk assessments, is leaving hazards unmitigated, threatening worker safety, putting the environment at risk and endangering company continuity. This scoping review gathers perspectives reported in scientific literature about how to address these problems.Safety managers and regulators, attempting to reduce and eventually close this gap, not only encounter the pitfalls of poor safety studies, but also the acceptance of ‘unknown risk’ as a phenomenon, companies being numbed by inadequate process safety indicators, unsettled debates between paradigms on improving process safety, and inflexible recording systems in a dynamic industrial environment.The immediacy of the stagnating long term downward major accident rate trend in the Netherlands underlines the need to address these pitfalls. A method to identify and systematically reduce unknown risks is proposed. The main conclusion is that safety management can never be ready with hazard identification and risk assessment.     

交通事故的时间分布规律

交通事故已成为威胁人民生命、财产安全的社会公害之一。笔者利用国内外有关交通事故数据进行统计分析,对交通事故发生的时间特征进行研究,为改善交通安全状况提供理论基础。运用统计分析、对比分析方法,分析国外不同国家和我国交通事故年时间分布规律的波峰曲线,得出我国交通事故逐年上升的势头有望得到遏制,使人们对战胜交通事故灾害充满信心。分析交通事故小时时间分布曲线,得出交通事故高峰小时出现在交通量高峰小时之后,两者不重合,死亡高峰时段(危险时段)多发生在夜晚等结论。该结论对采取针对不同时间内降低交通事故的教育、管理、工程等安全对策具有实用价值。     

聚丙烯车间12m3釜聚合岗危险分析及安全措施

聚合岗位是石油化工厂聚丙烯车间重要且非常危险的岗位,一旦发生意外事故,将会导致人员的重大伤亡和巨大的经济损失。笔者依据聚丙烯车间生产现状,详细地介绍了12m3 釜聚合岗位工艺流程,用“系统安全”的理论和方法对其主要物质、生产工艺、操作过程的危险性进行了辨识,且绘制了主要危险点分布图;通过危险源辨识可知,聚合釜具有的超温、超压特点是该岗位众多危险源中最为严重的潜在危险,应用“事故树法”对聚合釜超温、超压爆炸事故进行了危险分析,找出其爆炸潜在的危险因素有2 4种,该事故树的最小割集共有6 6个,表明聚合釜爆炸可能性是很大的。依据分析结果,针对聚合釜爆炸可能性最大的危险因素,提出了安全对策与措施,以避免或减少爆炸事故的发生     

ExSys-LOPA for the chemical process industry

The chemical process industries are characterized by the use, processing, and storage of large amounts of dangerous chemical substances and/or energy. Among different missions of chemical plants there are two very important ones, which: 1. provide a safe work environment, 2. fully protect the environment. These important missions can be achieved only by design of adequate safeguards for identified process hazards. Layer of Protection Analysis (LOPA) can successfully answer this question. This technique is a simplified process of quantitative risk assessment, using the order of magnitude categories for initiating cause frequency, consequence severity, and the likelihood of failure of independent protection layers to analyze and assess the risk of particular accident scenarios. LOPA requires application of qualitative hazard evaluation methods to identify accident scenarios, including initiating causes and appropriate safeguards. This can be well fulfilled, e.g., by HAZOP Studies or What-If Analysis. However, those techniques require extensive experience, efforts by teams of experts as well as significant time commitments, especially for complex chemical process units. In order to simplify that process, this paper presents another strategy that is a combination of an expert system for accident scenario identification with subsequent application of LOPA. The concept is called ExSys-LOPA, which employs, prepared in advance, values from engineering databases for identification of loss events specific to the selected target process and subsequently a accident scenario barrier model developed as an input for LOPA. Such consistent rules for the identification of accident scenarios to be analyzed can facilitate and expedite the analysis and thereby incorporate many more scenarios and analyze those for adequacy of the safeguards. An associated computer program is under development. The proposed technique supports and extends the Layer of Protection Analysis application, especially for safety assurance assessment of risk-based determination for the process industries. A case study concerning HF alkylation plant illustrates the proposed method.     

安全苛求系统的交叉验收框架

交叉验收是一个涉及技术和法律的工作,其目的是在新项目中能够尽快地应用类似的产品、系统和方法(PSP)。交叉验收的PSP首先要求在原始的应用中能够满足可靠性、安全性和环境要求。PSP目标和原始的应用应具有很好的相似性,因此,不需要很大的改动,在技术上和经济上可行性会很强。当然,交叉验收从根本上来说和PSP的安全性和适用性有关。目前交叉验收缺乏系统的指导和专门的标准,笔者阐述的一个基于风险分析的结构化PSP交叉验收框架包括7个主要原则。该框架基于笔者多年在安全苛求系统和铁路领域开发应用控制风险和安全确信系统框架的经验,采用通行的原则,对于目前还未建立交叉验收系统框架的安全苛求系统尤其适用。     

Coordinability and consistency: Application of systems theory to accident causation and prevention

Recent works in the safety literature report several fruitful attempts to introduce mathematically rigorous results from systems and control theory to bear upon accident prevention and system safety. Previously, we discussed the implications on safety of the systems theoretic principles of coordinability and consistency, and we identified the lack of coordinability and/or consistency as fundamental failure modes in hierarchical multilevel systems. In this work, we further develop system safety analysis techniques based on these principles. We demonstrate that these principles not only provide a domain-independent vocabulary for expressing the results of post-mortem accident analyses, but they can also be applied to guide design and operational choices for accident prevention and system safety. We develop these ideas with the help of an illustrative case study. This case study represents a broad class of systems where operational policies and procedures of individual stakeholders in the system interact with physical processes such that new system behaviors emerge, and unanticipated safety issues arise. We argue, and illustrate our arguments using this case study, that the coordinability and consistency principles can be developed to deliver a threefold impact on accident analysis and prevention: firstly, these principles provide domain-independent procedural templates and vocabulary for post-mortem accident analysis. Secondly, these principles provide theoretical safety specifications to be met during system design and operation. Finally, these safety specifications can precipitate the formulation of a series of questions directly related to safety-oriented choices in the design, operation, and control of systems.     

企业危险源风险管理方法研究

简要分析危险源管理现状,以及风险控制、风险的财务安排、保险等风险管理方法。阐述如何将风险管理理念引入到危险源管理中,将风险管理与企业危险源管理相结合,以提高危险源的管理水平。重点论述利用最小化代价原则紧抓企业安全管理;利用风险集中原理,合理使用安全投入资金;利用风险转移方法,降低事故率;合理使用财务方法,减小事故引发的损失。从而实现预防事故、减少损失、合理安排资金、保证企业的可持续发展。     

安全措施在定量风险评价中量化表征的研究

良好安全措施可以降低重大危险源的事故风险,而在一般的定量风险评价中较少考虑到安全措施对风险结果的影响。本文对一些重要安全措施如何体现在定量风险评价的计算结果中进行了研究。将安全措施分为降低事故频率安全技术措施、降低事故后果的安全技术措施、土地利用规划安全措施和安全管理措施四个方面来分析降低风险结果的作用。并以一个液化石油气罐区为实例应用进行对比分析,实例计算结果表明良好的安全措施能有效地降低罐区的个人风险。     

Qualitative Assessment for Inherently Safer Design (QAISD) at preliminary design stage

Conventional hazard evaluation techniques such as what-if checklist and hazard and operability (HAZOP) studies are often used to recognise potential hazards and recommend possible solutions. They are used to reduce any potential incidents in the process plant to as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP) level. Nevertheless, the suggested risk reduction alternatives merely focus on added passive and active safety systems rather than preventing or minimising the inherent hazards at source through application of inherently safer design (ISD) concept. One of the attributed reasons could be the shortage of techniques or tools to support implementation of the concept. Thus, this paper proposes a qualitative methodology that integrates ISD concept with hazard review technique to identify inherent hazards and generate ISD options at early stage of design as proactive measures to produce inherently safer plant. A modified theory of inventive problem solving (TRIZ) hazard review method is used in this work to identify inherent hazards, whereby an extended inherent safety heuristics tool is developed based on established ISD principles to create potential ISD options. The developed method namely Qualitative Assessment for Inherently Safer Design (QAISD) could be applied during preliminary design stage and the information required to apply the method would be based on common process and safety database of the studied process. However, user experiences and understanding of inherent safety concept are crucial for effective utilisation of the QAISD. This qualitative methodology is applied to a typical batch reactor of toluene nitration as a case study. The results show several ISD strategies that could be considered at early stage of design in order to prevent and minimise the potential of thermal runaway in the nitration process.     

Study of chemical supply system of high-tech process using inherently safer design strategies in Taiwan

The photoelectric, semiconductor and other high-tech industries are Taiwan's most important economic activities. High-tech plant incidents are caused by hazardous energy, even when that energy is confined to the inside of the process machine. During daily maintenance procedures, overhauling or troubleshooting, engineers entering the interior of the machines are in direct contact with the source of the energy or hazardous substances, which can cause serious injury. The best method for preventing such incidents is to use inherently safer design strategies (ISDs); this approach can fully eliminate the dangers from the sources of hazardous energy at a facility.This study first conducts a lithography process hazard analysis and compiles a statistical analysis of the causes of the fires and losses at high-tech plants in Taiwan since 1996, the aim being to establish the necessary improvement measures by using the Fire Dynamics Simulation (FDS) to solve relevant problems. The researchers also investigate the lithography process machine in order to explore carriage improvement measures, and analyse the fires' causes and reactive materials hazardous properties, from 1996 to 2012. The effective improvement measures are established based on the accident statistics. The study site is a 300 mm wafer fabrication plant located in Hsinchu Science Park, Taiwan.After the completion of the annual maintenance jobs improvement from September 2011 to December 2012, the number of lithography process accidents was reduced from 6 to 1. The accident rate was significantly reduced and there were no staff time losses for a continuous 6882 h. It is confirmed that the plant safety level has been effectively enhanced. The researchers offer safety design recommendations regarding transport process appliances, chemical storage tanks, fume cupboard devices, chemical rooms, pumping equipment, transportation pipelines, valve manual box (VMB) process machines and liquid waste discharge lines. These recommendations can be applied in these industries to enhance the safety level of high-tech plants, facilities or process systems.     

SPA–fuzzy method based real-time risk assessment for major hazard installations storing flammable gas

For monitoring and control of major hazard installations storing flammable gas, the risk based warning/early-warning is very important. A set-pair analysis (SPA) based fuzzy assessment method (SPA–fuzzy) is proposed for the real-time risk assessment in this paper. Based on principle of SPA and fuzzy logic theory, the likelihood of accident occurrence and the consequence of the accident can be assessed, and the risk value or risk degree can be evaluated. The method takes advantage of the data acquired from the real-time safety monitoring system, so that the varying of the risk can be revealed during an accident developing. The risk assessment simulation of VCE accident caused by gas leaked from LPG tank is performed. It is shown that SPA–fuzzy method has the same risk value as that assessed by normal fuzzy method.