Uncertainty reduction for improved mishap probability prediction: Application to level control of distillation unit

At all levels, the understanding of uncertainty associated with risk of major chemical industrial hazards should be enhanced. In this study, a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) was performed for a knockout drum in the distillation unit of a refinery process and then probabilistic uncertainty analysis was applied for this QRA. A fault tree was developed to analyze the probability distribution of flammable liquid released from the overfilling of a knockout drum. Bayesian theory was used to update failure rates of the equipment so that generic information from databases and plant equipment real life data are combined to gain all available knowledge on component reliability. Using Monte Carlo simulation, the distribution of top event probability was obtained to characterize the uncertainty of the result. It was found that the uncertainty of basic event probabilities has a significant impact on the top event probability distribution. The top event probability prediction uncertainty profile showed that the risk estimation is improved by reducing uncertainty through Bayesian updating on the basic event probability distributions. The whole distribution of top event probability replaces point value in a risk matrix to guide decisions employing all of the available information rather than only point mean values as in the conventional approach. The resulting uncertainty guides where more information or uncertainty reduction is needed to avoid overlap with intolerable risk levels.     

考虑冰风载荷影响的输电线路运行风险评估方法*

为预防在极端冰灾环境下大规模停电事故的发生，提出1种考虑冰风载荷的输电线路运行风险评估方法。在极端冰风环境下，计算输电线路与杆塔所承受的总载荷，利用强度与应力干涉模型确定输电线路与杆塔的故障率，同时结合串联可靠性原理确定线路故障综合概率；利用非贯序蒙特卡洛法与线路故障综合概率设置预想故障集，结合直流潮流优化模型计算每条线路的失负荷量；综合考虑负荷等级与抢修恢复时间，确定线路失负荷的经济价值并定义为故障后果；将故障后果与线路故障综合概率的乘积定义为输电线路风险评估指标。以实际拓扑结构修正的IEEE30节点开展算例分析。结果表明:所提方法可对输电线路运行风险进行有效评估。     

A stochastic approach for risk analysis in vapor cloud explosion

A stochastic approach for evaluating the risk of vapor cloud explosions is proposed in this work. The proposed methodology aims to incorporate the effect of uncertainty into the risk analysis to produce a better overall view for the risk. Some stochastic variables are used to estimate the probability of vapor cloud explosions: frequency of the release, the probability of not having an immediate ignition, the probability of delayed ignition and the probability of a vapor cloud explosion given a delayed ignition, as well as different possible meteorological conditions. These stochastic variables are represented with probability distribution curves. Different curves for the frequencies of releases from process equipment types (steel process pipes, flanges, manual valves, actuated valves, etc.), different equipment diameters and different leak sizes are also used in this analysis. Monte Carlo simulation is performed to obtain the risk as a probability distribution using the Analytic Solver Platform. Then the risk distribution curve obtained by Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probability of satisfying the risk tolerance criterion.     

气态加氢站定量风险评估研究

从加氢站的事故场景、事故频率、事故后果、死亡概率和个人及社会风险5个方面进行研究,提出气态加氢站定量风险分析模型,并结合某加氢站进行了实例计算分析,计算出该加氢站量化的个人风险和社会风险,经与国内外认可的可接受风险标准比较后,得出其风险水平是否可接受的分析结论。     

Strength reliability analysis of aluminium–carbon fiber/epoxy composite laminates

Strength reliability of composite laminated structures relates to a series of parameters such as the design sizes, material parameters and load level. By introducing the Monte Carlo simulation and response surface method respectively, a static strength-based reliability model is proposed to predict the reliability of aluminium–carbon fiber/epoxy composite laminates for composite vessels. The burst pressure of composite vessels for different layer structures is predicted using finite element analysis. In the reliability analysis, two design parameters for composite vessels: the radius of polar axis and the winding thickness of each composite layer at the cylinder are assumed to obey the uniform distribution and Gaussian distribution respectively, and the burst pressure of composite vessels is taken as the random output response. Effects of the number of sampling and the limit strength on the strength reliability of composite vessels are explored. Besides, the numerical results obtained using two methods and two distributions for two random input parameters are compared in terms of the calculation efficiency and accuracy. Numerical results also indicate the proposed probability method exhibits preferable advantage over the conventional design method merely using empirical safety coefficient.     

Solution method of overtopping risk model for earth dams

Hydrologic risk analysis relies on a series of probabilistic analyses, and it is a complex problem in estimating the probability distributions of multiple independent and random variables. The goal of this study is to presents the procedure and application of a probability-based risk analysis methodology to evaluate earth dam overtopping risk that induced by concurrent flood and wind. The uncertainty arising from initial water surface level, flood, wind velocity, and dam height are discussed in this research. The improved Monte Carlo simulation and mean-value first-order second-moment method are used to solve the proposed dam overtopping risk model, respectively. The nonparametric kernel density estimation method, which can better learn the complex multimodal characteristic of probability density function than that of traditional parametric estimation method, is employed to improve the probability density function of initial water surface level. The latin hypercube sampling is introduced to generate uniform random number, which improves the efficient and stability compared with simple random sampling. Afterward, an application to the Dongwushi Reservoir in China illustrates that the dam overtopping risk computed using the improved Monte Carlo simulation is lower than that using mean-value first-order second-moment method. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis show that initial water surface level is more sensitive to overtopping risk than wind velocity.     

基坑放坡开挖对下方既有地铁隧道影响计算及风险预测

为研究基坑放坡开挖对下方既有地铁隧道的影响以及预测隧道结构的风险,通过改进的计算方法得到放坡开挖基坑引起下方既有地铁隧道的竖向和横向附加荷载、位移、相对变形曲率共6个隧道结构安全的物理表现因子;将位移计算结果与前人理论计算结果、实测数据对比验证,并分析各土层物理力学参数对6个因子的敏感性;最后,基于正态分布概率模型对较敏感的土层物理力学参数随机取值,利用蒙特卡罗方法计算6个因子各级风险发生的概率和竖向、横向2类因子综合影响下隧道结构各级风险发生的总概率。研究结果表明:与原来仅限于矩形开挖基坑的计算方法相比,改进后的计算方法适用范围更广、实用性更强;在算例二分析中,隧道竖向位移和相对变形曲率超过控制值的概率分别为12%和68.7%,其余因子均为0,隧道竖向相对变形曲率是隧道结构处于不安全状态的最主要因子;若不采取预防措施,隧道结构将有高达73.27%的概率处于不安全状态,其中有68.7%的概率处于很不安全状态。     

Influence of the source size on domino effect risk caused by fragments

We developed the movement equations for fragments with the size of the bursting vessel. The ground distributions of fragments, the probability of impact between the fragments and the target, the rupture probability of the impacted target, and the domino effect risk caused by fragments were investigated for different source types and sizes using Monte-Carlo simulations. The distribution of fragments from the lower half of the source vessels onto the ground was non-zero, that is, it is probable that the fragments would hit the target vessel close to the source. The relative difference of impact probability is larger than 10% when the target vessel is within eight times the source diameter for the three types of sources considered. The proportion of impacts of fragments from the lower part of the source to total impact decreased with distance, while that for fragments from the upper part increased. The proportion of upper and lower parts is equal for distance approximately five times the source diameter. The source size needs to be considered along with the distance from the source to the target when less than approximately 14 times the source diameter. Its effect on impact probability and domino effect risk was significant. The rupture probability of the target depended very little on the source size.     

An approach for domino effect reduction based on optimal layouts

An approach to reduce the probability of producing a domino effect in process industry is developed in this work. It is assumed that optimal layouts should include appropriate analysis to reduce risk during the process design stage. The model developed for this approach combines the estimation of probability of damage due to overpressure, proposed by Mingguang and Juncheng (2008), and escalation threshold values defined by Cozzani, Gubinelli, and Salzano (2006). These equations are combined with other typical layout constraints as well as bounding the probability constraint, which has resulted in a highly non-linear MINLP problem. Solving a case study used by other authors provides evidence for reliability of the developed approach. In this way, layouts are designed to reduce the escalation probability yielding safe distributions.     

基于时变可靠度分析的桥梁使用寿命预测

为分析一座桥梁结构寿命,在现有混凝土桥梁抗力和荷载的时变性研究的基础上,建立桥梁时变可靠度计算模型。将结构抗力等效转换为车辆荷载作用下结构所产生的竖向位移限值,预测远景交通量,反映荷载的时变性;运用非线性有限单元增量分析方法,以递增特定荷载的方式,采用响应面法计算时变可靠度指标及累计失效概率。结果表明:桥梁结构初始阶段具有足够大的可靠性,但其会随时间推移迅速衰减,利用韦伯分布函数和最小二乘法计算桥梁累计失效概率,进而推算桥梁使用寿命。根据桥梁寿命可靠度计算结果,制定出桥梁最佳维修养护策略。     

Stochastic modeling of accident risks associated with an underground coal mine in Turkey

In this study, a methodology is proposed towards development of an uncertainty model that includes randomness in the occurrence of days-lost accidents in a coal mine. The accident/injury data consists of 1390 days-lost accident cases recorded at GLI-Tuncbilek underground lignite mine from January 1994 to December 2002. In the first step of proposed methodology, the frequency and the severity of the accidents have been modeled statistically by fitting appropriate distributions. The test done by BestFit software yields a chi-square value of 21.53 (p = 0.089) with 14 degrees of freedom and estimates the parameter of lambda for Poisson distribution as 12.87 accidents/month. For the severity component, a lognormal distribution is fitted to days-lost data and chi-square goodness-of-fit test calculates a value of 40.44 (p = 0.097) with 30 degrees of freedom. The parameters of lognormal distribution are estimated as a mean of 14.3 days and standard deviation of 23.1 days, respectively. Then, two distributions are basically combined by Monte Carlo simulation in order to construct relative risk levels in yearly base referring to the final cumulative distribution. Finally, a simple forecasting modeling is carried out in order to quantitatively predict the expected risk levels by using decomposition technique in time series analysis. Stochastic model estimates that although, there would be substantial reduction in the expected number of accidents in the near future, the higher level of risks still should be a concern for the mine management.     

Crash risk by driver age,gender, and time of day using a new exposure methodology

Introduction: Concerns have been raised that the nonlinear relation between crashes and travel exposure invalidates the conventional use of crash rates to control for exposure. A new metric of exposure that bears a linear association to crashes was used as basis for calculating unbiased crash risks. This study compared the two methods – conventional crash rates and new adjusted crash risk – for assessing the effect of driver age, gender, and time of day on the risk of crash involvement and crash fatality. Method: We used police reports of single-car and multi-car crashes with fatal and nonfatal driver injuries that occurred during 2002–2012 in Great Britain. Results: Conventional crash rates were highest in the youngest age group and declined steeply until age 60–69 years. The adjusted crash risk instead peaked at age 21–29 years and reduced gradually with age. The risk of nighttime driving, especially among teenage drivers, was much smaller when based on adjusted crash risks. Finally, the adjusted fatality risk incurred by elderly drivers remained constant across time of day, suggesting that their risk of sustaining a fatal injury due to a crash is more attributable to excess fragility than to crash seriousness. Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate a biasing effect of low travel exposure on conventional crash rates. This implies that conventional methods do not yield meaningful comparisons of crash risk between driver groups and driving conditions of varying exposure to risk. The excess crash rates typically associated with teenage and elderly drivers as well as nighttime driving are attributed in part to overestimation of risk at low travel exposure. Practical Applications: Greater attention should be directed toward crash involvement among drivers in their 20s and 30s as well as younger drivers. Countermeasures should focus on the role of physical vulnerability in fatality risk of elderly drivers.     

重大危险源事故风险排序研究

本文将风险管理领域中风险排序的概念引入重大危险源安全管理中，提出了基于事故情景发生概率和造成死亡人数的风险评估和排序模型，并给出了基于统计分析的事故发生概率、基于死亡半径的死亡人数的确定方法。对某开发区的20个重大危险源进行了风险评估和排序，结果表明提出的方法对重大危险源的事故风险产生了明显的细分作用。研究成果对有关政府部门或企业确定重大危险源重点监察和管理的优先序，优化资源配置，提高管理效率具有一定的指导意义。     

Occupant Risk,Partner Risk and Fatality Rate in Frontal Crashes: Estimated Effects of Changing Vehicle Fleet Mass in 15 Years

The effect of vehicle fleet mass on car crash fatalities was estimated, using a new mathematical model to isolate vehicle mass from related factors like size, stiffness and inherent protection. The model was based on fatality risk data, impact speed, fleet mass distribution, and collision probabilities. The fleet mass distribution was changed over 15 years to (a) a homogeneous fleet of 1300 kg cars, (b) a bimodal fleet of 600 and 1600 kg cars, and (c) a 300 kg lighter fleet.

Occupant and collision partner fatality risks were estimated for the new fleets. The new fleets were achieved by various strategies, and the average fatality rate was calculated after and during the transition to the new fleet.Occupant fatality risk decreased and partner risk increased as occupants changed to a heavier car. The average fatality rate was 59% higher after the transition to a bimodal fleet mass, and 11 % lower for a homogeneous fleet. A 300 kg lighter fleet had a 8% higher fatality rale, but the strategy influenced the number of fatalities accumulated during the transition. The safest strategy to attain the lighter fleet was to reduce the mass of the heaviest cars first.

It was concluded that vehicle fleet mass significantly affects traffic safety. Downsizing consequences can be compensated for by improving inherent vehicle protection or reducing impact speed. The fatalities during downsizing can be limited by choosing an appropriate strategy.     

金属埋地管道腐蚀泄漏及大气扩散过程推理模型研究

为了定量评估埋地金属管道腐蚀泄漏的风险,将贝叶斯网络和蒙特卡罗模拟方法用于计算管道腐蚀泄漏及扩散范围概率。建立了埋地金属管道腐蚀泄漏贝叶斯网络,量化了各事件之间的关联。在已知先验概率的基础上,运用贝叶斯概率计算得到管道腐蚀泄漏的后验概率值。利用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对泄漏后气体扩散范围进行了数值模拟,给出了主要模型变量的概率密度函数,得到了扩散区域范围概率分布特征。研究结果表明,管道腐蚀泄漏过程受输送介质和土壤腐蚀性、防腐措施有效性和大气扩散条件的影响,具有较大的不确定性。分析方法考虑了模型参数随机性对计算结果的影响,评估结果可以用于比较不同条件下埋地金属管道腐蚀泄漏扩散的风险。     

A statistical approach to estimating driver responsibility in two-car crashes

A statistical model is developed relating driver age distributions in one-car and two-car crashes to the probability that both of the drivers in a two-car crash are similarly responsible for the crash as are drivers in a single-car crash. The model is applied to (a) passenger car crashes in the years 1975–1980 involving a driver fatality, compiled in the U.S. Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS), and (b) all police-reported crashes occurring in North Carolina in 1979, supplied by the North Carolina Highway Safety Research Center. Appropriate national and North Carolina driver license data are used to estimate exposure to potential crashes as a function of driver age. The model is found to provide an adequate fit to observed driver age distribution in two-car crashes for both data sets. The results obtained from this fit to the model equations indicate that for two-car crashes involving a driver fatality, both drivers contribute to the responsibility for the crash in about 40% of cases, but for less severe two-car crashes, only one of the two involved drivers is generally responsible.     

基于多米诺效应的油品储罐区个人风险研究

介绍了多米诺效应的基本原理和多米诺事故发生的概率分析方法。提出在一定条件下进行储罐区风险评价时，多米诺效应对个人风险值的影响不容忽视，并给出了考虑多米诺效应的个人风险计算方法。最后利用开发的个人风险计算软件通过分析计算，给出了某储罐区的个人风险等值线分布图。结果表明，该罐区正北方向相邻的一劳动密集型工厂需搬迁，或采取相应安全保护措施降低风险。该方法考虑了多米诺效应对装置事故发生概率的影响，能提高个人风险计算结果的真实性与准确性。     

Accounting for the effect of concentration fluctuations on toxic load for gaseous releases of carbon dioxide

In Great Britain, advice on land-use planning decisions in the vicinity of major hazard sites and pipelines is provided to Local Planning Authorities by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE), based on quantified risk assessments of the risks to the public in the event of an accidental release. For potential exposures to toxic substances, the hazard and risk is estimated by HSE on the basis of a “toxic load”. For carbon dioxide (CO₂), this is calculated from the time-integral of the gas concentration to the power eight. As a consequence of this highly non-linear dependence of the toxic load on the concentration, turbulent concentration fluctuations that occur naturally in jets or plumes of CO₂ may have a significant effect on the calculated hazard ranges. Most dispersion models used for QRA only provide estimates of the time- or ensemble-averaged concentrations. If only mean concentrations are used to calculate the toxic load, and the effects of concentration fluctuations are ignored, there is a danger that toxic loads and hence hazard ranges will be significantly under-estimated.This paper explores a simple and pragmatic modification to the calculation procedure for CO₂ toxic load calculations. It involves the assumption that the concentration fluctuates by a factor of two with a prescribed square-wave variation over time. To assess the validity of this methodology, two simple characteristic flows are analysed: the free jet and the dense plume (or gravity current). In the former case, an empirical model is used to show that the factor-of-two approach provides conservative estimates of the hazard range. In the latter case, a survey of the literature indicates that there is at present insufficient information to come to any definite conclusions.Recommendations are provided for future work to investigate the concentration fluctuation behaviour in dense CO₂ plumes. This includes further analysis of existing dense gas dispersion data, measurements of concentration fluctuations in ongoing large-scale CO₂ release experiments, and numerical simulations.     

健康风险暴露评价研究进展

综述了国内外健康风险暴露评价的最新研究进展,重点讨论了对人体进行直接监测的生物监测技术和对环境中污染因子进行间接监测并利用数学模型进行暴露剂量计算的间接方法。生物监测方法通过测定人体生理介质(如血液、尿液)中的污染物质及其代谢产物含量确定人体对环境污染物的暴露情况,监测结果反映了风险因子通过所有暴露途径进入人体的总暴露剂量。为了利用生物监测结果评价人体暴露安全性,近几年建立了生物监测等效值的概念,推导确定化学物质的生物监测等效值发展迅速。环境监测和数学模型间接方法通过对不同暴露媒介中风险因子的浓度监测和特定暴露途径的量化研究,同时利用精确的暴露计算模型(如空气分散模型、地下水扩散模型)计算人体对污染物的暴露剂量。生物监测和环境监测技术及数学模型的发展使健康风险评价和管理的暴露参数更加精确,降低了风险评价的不确定性。还介绍了利用数学模拟和剂量重建等方法插补历史空白暴露数据的方法。     

Uncertainty analysis framework for tubular connection sealability of underground gas storage wells

The seal failure of tubing and casing connections compromises underground gas storage well safety. This work proposes a systematic uncertainty analysis framework for connection sealability assessment. The framework covers reliability analysis and reliability sensitivity analysis and attempts to provide more effective support for the reliability design of connection seals. The reliability analysis introduces an adaptive Kriging with stopping criterion P-Monte Carlo simulation (AKP-MCS) method, which can provide a satisfactory estimate of failure probability with a small number of performance function evaluations. This metamodeling technology can effectively reduce the numerical efforts required for the reliability assessment of connection sealability. In the reliability sensitivity analysis, the refined metamodel obtained from the reliability analysis is coupled into a single-loop Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. The classifier attribute of this metamodel can meet the requirement of the single-loop MCS method to classify the signs of sampling points. This attribute enables sample matrices to be evaluated on this metamodel instead of the performance function, making the reliability sensitivity assessment more feasible. The proposed method is first demonstrated with four academic examples with promising results. Next, an illustrative tubular connection case is provided. The proposed scheme gives estimates of the failure probability and reliability sensitivity close to the classical model but requires less computational cost. The results of the analysis can provide useful information for the scheme decision-making and reliability optimization of connection seal design.