The world budget constraint

The fact the resources of the earth are limited implies a budget constraint for the world economy, under the assumption of preserving the natural capital. Using recent data on the ecological footprint, the world product, and population, it is estimated that we are currently located in a non-feasible area. It is also estimated that if the present level of per capita product is to be sustained, the size of the world population must be reduced to 2.5 billion people. Given our natural resource endowment and the relationship between material income and happiness, suggested in recent research, there appears to be an obvious need for reconsidering our lifestyles, our consumption patterns, and our policies for population reduction.     

Reducing meat consumption in developed and transition countries to counter climate change and biodiversity loss: a review of influence factors

A dietary shift towards reduced meat consumption is an efficient strategy for countering biodiversity loss and climate change in regions (developed and transition countries) where consumption is already at a very high level or is rapidly expanding (such as China). Biodiversity is being degraded and lost to a considerable extent, with 70 % of the world’s deforestation a result of stripping in order to grow animal feed. Furthermore, about 14.5 % of the world’s anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are calculated to be the result of (mainly industrial) livestock farming. The research reviewed here focuses on the feasibility of reducing meat consumption in developed and transition countries, as this would—among other positive effects—reduce the global loss of biodiversity, the need for unsustainable agricultural practices and GHG emissions. This article reviews the barriers, opportunities and steps that need to be taken in order to encourage the consumption of less meat, based on an interdisciplinary and multifactor approach. The evidence is gathered from a systematic meta-analysis of factors (including personal, sociocultural and external factors) that influence individual meat-eating behaviour. The most relevant factors that influence behaviour appear to be emotions and cognitive dissonance (between knowledge, conflicting values and actual behaviour) and sociocultural factors (e.g. social norms or social identity). For different factors and groups of people, different strategies are appropriate. For example, for men and older people deploying the health argument or arguing for flexitarianism (reduced meat consumption) may prove the most promising approaches, while providing emotional messages or promoting new social norms is recommended in order to address barriers such as cognitive dissonance.

     

Effect of lifestyle changes and consumption patterns on environmental impact: a comparison study of Pakistan and China

Increased economic development and industrialization put strain on environment, hence causing pollution and destroying ecosystem. Generally, many different factors affect the environment. These factors include GHG emissions, deforestation, and others. These are all related to human activities on Earth. Other factors that affect environment include population, consumption patterns, and changing life styles of people due to increased income. This study involves the comparison analysis of Pakistan and China on the basis of environmental impact caused by some major driving factors. China is the second largest CO₂ emitter in the world with a population of 1.37 billion in 2016 and the second largest economy in the world. Pakistan is ranked as 40th on the basis of nominal GDP. Both the countries observed noticeable growth in economic development for over 55 years, i.e. 1960–2016. This study identifies how population, affluence, consumption, and emissions as the major factors affect environmental pollution and use ImPACT equation, or I = PACT, to calculate the environmental impact and to determine which factors affect the environment the most. The study suggests that the people of both China and Pakistan have experienced increased income for the past 50 years and this increase has led to the changes in their lifestyles, from suitable clothing and quality food to comfortable living and increased energy consumption, thus affecting environment.     

Technology improvements and value changes for sustainable happiness: a cross-development analytical model

This paper develops an analytical model to calculate the amount by which individuals are expected to modify their values (the relationship between lifestyle and happiness, as measured by subjective well-being, SWB) and to adopt innovative technologies (to increase the sustainability of production and consumption, measured by the ecological footprint, EF) to allow current and future generations to achieve sustainable happiness (the pursuit of happiness that does not exploit other people, the environment, or future generations). The paper also examines the dependence of these changes on an individual’s concern for future generations and on their country’s current state of economic development. It is shown that individuals in better-off developed countries and individuals in worse-off developing countries can achieve sustainability with a reasonable level of value change (0–30 %) and a feasible degree of technological innovation (10–40 %), respectively. In contrast, individuals in better-off developing countries and individuals in worse-off developed countries must rely to an impractical degree of technological innovation (50–70 %) and to an unreasonable level of value change (40–70 %), respectively. Finally, individuals in developing countries differ from individuals in developed countries in terms of their potential to achieve sustainable happiness, by achieving sustainability at a low SWB (about 10 % of its maximum) and a high SWB (about 80 % of its maximum), respectively.     

城镇化进程中用水量增长的门槛效应与动态作用机制分析

城镇化是发展中国家21世纪的主要发展趋势,在很大程度上主导着人口、经济和产业结构等各方面的转变,成为拉动用水量增长的关键因素。城镇化进程中城镇居民收入、人口结构、人口密度和人力资本等因素的变化,使得城镇化并非表现为线性发展规律,最终导致用水量也存在相应的门槛效应并呈现阶段性增长特征。本文首先对我国各地区城镇化水平和用水量进行统计分析,从地区层面直观描述我国城镇化水平和用水量的变化特征,然后采用面板门槛模型研究城镇化、城镇居民人均收入、人力资本、城市人口密度和人口年龄结构对于用水量的门槛效应,搜寻在城镇化进程中各人口因素对用水量影响的门槛点并分析阶段性变化特征,最后结合PVAR模型研究城镇化进程中各人口因素对用水量的动态影响和作用机制。门槛回归结果发现:城镇化对用水量的影响具有明显的阶段性特征,分别以城镇化和人均收入为门槛变量,超越门槛点后城镇化对用水量的弹性系数分别呈现先升后降的倒"U"型和先降后升的正"U"型变化趋势;以人力资本为门槛变化量,城镇化对用水量的拉动作用则不断减弱。脉冲响应结果显示:城镇化对用水量具有长期且稳定的正向冲击,而居民收入和人口年龄结构对用水量的正向冲击则逐渐收敛于零,人口密度和人力资本对用水量均具有负向冲击,且人口密度的负效应不断增强,而人力资本的负效应不断减弱。方差分解的结果表明,目前我国用水量的增长受自身的影响较大,除年龄结构外,人口密度、居民收入、人力资本和城镇化也具有小规模的贡献程度。     

我国能源节约战略研究

节约能源，保护环境，是全面建设小康社会、实现可持续发展的必不可少的前提条件。中国万美元GDP能耗水平是发达国家的3至11倍。节能潜力很大。其中工业部门是我国的能源消费大户。其能源消费占全国能源消费总量的比重一直保持在70％左右，其节能潜力也居第一位。2020年中国实现全面建设小康社会的目标．人均GDP是3000美元，按届时人口15亿计算，全国GDP为49500亿美元，所需要的能源总量是33亿t标准煤，万美元GDP的能耗是6．67吨标煤；人均能耗是2．13吨标煤。只要政策选择适当。我国完全可以以当初发达国家一半的能源供应实现其相应的人均经济发展目标。为此，我们需要继续建立和完善适应市场经济要求的推动能源节约与资源综合利用的新机制；加快制定与《节约能源法》配套法规，引导和规范用能行为；加快建立以企业为主体的技术创新体系。     

Measuring environmental degradation by using principal component analysis

The objective of the paper is to measure environmental degradation on the basis of some selected indicators by the application of a simple multivariate technique known as Principal Component Analysis. For this purpose the study considered six variables, namely, GDP per capita, fuel consumption, total fertility rate, water supply, sanitation, and electricity. However, because of unavailability of data, the variables such as technology relating to environment, waste disposal, air pollution, women/gender issues relating to environment, corruption, democracy etc. could not be considered. The results show that principal components explain about 62% of the variations in the level of environmental degradation. The variables like GDP per capita, fuel consumption, water supply and electricity played a major role in classifying the countries in terms of environmental degradation compared to the variables, sanitation and total fertility rate. The findings show that countries which have high GDP per capita, low fuel consumption, higher percentage of people having access to water supply and sanitation as well as electricity ranked higher in terms of environmental quality despite high fertility rate as shown by the spectacular example of Saudi Arabia. By contrast, those countries which have low percentage of population having access to safe water and sanitation as well as electricity, high fuel consumption and high fertility were ranked lower in terms of environmental quality despite high per capita income, as shown by the example of Angola which is placed in lowest position among the 51 selected countries. The results also show that correlation between poverty and environmental degradation is particularly acute in African countries where high population growth is acting as an exacerbating factor. The study concluded that high fertility has much impact on environmental degradation in case of poorer countries than in case of rich countries.

江苏省人口规模、结构对碳排放的影响分析

将人口结构因素纳入STIRPAT模型,利用江苏省1982~2010年的相关数据运用统计和计量方法对影响碳排放的人口总量、人口城市化、老龄人口比重、家庭规模、人均消费额、碳排放强度等相关因素进行实证分析。结果表明：家庭规模具有显著的负效应;在显著的正向影响因素中,老龄人口比重弹性最大,其它依次为人均消费额、人口总量、人口城市化水平、碳排放强度。在考虑人口结构情况下,碳排放的人口规模弹性小于1,缺乏弹性,说明人口总量对江苏碳排放的影响开始放缓;人口年龄结构对碳排放的影响逐渐显现,特别是老龄人口比重已经超过人口规模,成为促进碳排放的第一驱动因素;人口城市化进程和人均消费额直接加剧了碳排放,以碳排放强度表示技术进步对抑制碳排放有一定的作用,但不显著。针对分析结果,探讨了江苏省未来低碳发展的应对之策     

气候变化情景下能源效率及其平等准则的研究

为适应气候变化领域国际斗争的需要,本文分析了中国能源生产消费特点、温室气体排放情景、能耗强度和温室气体排放强度及其发展趋势;在温气体限控上提出能源效率与人均温室气体累积和、与人均GDP发展水平、与技术转让相联系的准则。     

Optimum Supportable Global Population: Water Accounting and Dietary Considerations

In this paper we develop a novel, comprehensive method for estimating the global human carrying capacity in reference to food production factors and levels of food consumption. Other important interrelated dimensions of carrying capacity such as energy, non-renewable resources, and ecology are not considered here and offer opportunities for future work. Use of grain production (rain-fed/irrigated), animal product production (grazing/factory farm), diet pattern (grain/animal products), and a novel water accounting method (demand/supply) based on actual water consumption and not on withdrawal, help resolve uncertainties to find better estimates. Current Western European food consumption is used as a goal for the entire world. Then the carrying capacity lies in the range of 4.5–4.7 billion but requiring agricultural water use increase by 450–530% to 4725–5480 km³, the range based on different estimates of available water. The cost of trapping and conveying such water, will run 4.5–13.5 trillion over 50 years requiring an annual spending increase of 150–400%, straining the developing world where most of the population increase is expected. We reconfirm estimates in the literature using a dynamic model. ‘Corner scenarios’ with extreme optimistic assumptions were analyzed using the reasoning support software system GLOBESIGHT. With a hypothetical scenario with a mainly vegetarian diet (grazing only with 5% animal product), the carrying capacity can be as high as 14 billion. Ecological deterioration that surely accompanies such a population increase would negatively impact sustainable population. Using our approach the impact of ecological damage could be studied. Inter- and intra-regional inequities are other considerations that need to be studied.     

Is the degrowth debate relevant to China?

In industrialized countries, the idea of degrowth has emerged as a response to environmental, social, and economic crises. Realizing environmental limits to and failures of more than half a century of continual economic growth in terms of social progress and environmental sustainability, the degrowth paradigm calls for a downscaling of consumption and production for social equity and ecological sustainability. The call for economic degrowth is generally considered to be delimited to rich countries, where reduced consumption can save “ecological space” enabling people in poor countries to enjoy the benefits of economic growth. China, as one of the economically most expanding countries in the world, has dramatically improved its living standards, particularly along the Eastern coast, over the latest 30 years. However, China is absent from the international debates on growth. This article discusses the implications of the Western degrowth debates for China. Given the distinctive features of China’s development, the paper aims to enrich the degrowth debates, which have hitherto been dominated by Western perspectives. Based upon reflections on social, environmental, and moral dimensions of economic growth, the paper argues that limited natural resources may not continuously support universal affluence at the current level of the rich countries, a level that China is likely to reach within a few decades. Priority for growth in China should therefore be given to the poor regions of the country, and future growth should be beneficial to social and environmental development.     

A methodology for estimating health benefits of electricity generation using renewable technologies

At Copenhagen, the developed countries agreed to provide up to $100 bn per year to finance climate change mitigation and adaptation by developing countries. Projects aimed at cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will need to be evaluated against dual criteria: from the viewpoint of the developed countries they must cut emissions of GHGs at reasonable cost, while host countries will assess their contribution to development, or simply their overall economic benefits. Co-benefits of some types of project will also be of interest to host countries: for example some projects will contribute to reducing air pollution, thus improving the health of the local population.This paper uses a simple damage function methodology to quantify some of the health co-benefits of replacing coal-fired generation with wind or small hydro in China. We estimate the monetary value of these co-benefits and find that it is probably small compared to the added costs. We have not made a full cost-benefit analysis of renewable energy in China as some likely co-benefits are omitted from our calculations. Our results are subject to considerable uncertainty however, after careful consideration of their likely accuracy and comparisons with other studies, we believe that they provide a good first cut estimate of co-benefits and are sufficiently robust to stand as a guide for policy makers.In addition to these empirical results, a key contribution made by the paper is to demonstrate a simple and reasonably accurate methodology for health benefits estimation that applies the most recent academic research in the field to the solution of an increasingly important problem.     

上海市居民消费碳排放的实证分析

居民消费碳排放是国内外温室气体排放研究的重要问题。利用1997～2010年上海市统计数据,分别采用改进的投入产出模型法、碳排放系数法核算了上海市居民间接和直接能源消费产生的碳排放,分析了上海市居民消费的碳排放变化、居民消费碳排放的城乡差异、各部门对居民间接能源消费碳排放的贡献。结果表明:(1)1997～2010年上海市居民消费产生的碳排放呈逐年上升趋势,间接能源消费是居民消费的碳排放的主要来源,在居民消费碳排放总量中占有较大比重;(2)1997～2010年上海市城镇居民消费碳排放呈逐年上升,农村居民消费碳排放呈下降趋势,居民消费碳排放存在着显著的城乡差异;(3)14个部门对居民消费碳排放的贡献大小不同,其中文教卫生商务及其他服务、交通运输仓储及信息服务、食品制造及烟草加工业3个部门对城乡居民消费碳排放的贡献最大;(4)提高各部门能源利用效率、降低部门单位产出的碳排放、引导居民向低碳产品消费的转变是居民消费碳减排的有效措施。研究结果可为上海市居民生存碳排放的评估提供数据支持,为政府部门制定碳减排措施、引导居民低碳消费提供理论指导。     

全球可持续发展面临的挑战与对策

全球可持续发展涉及可持续经济、可持续环境和可持续社会三方面的协调统一,要求人类在发展中讲究经济效率、关注环境和谐与追求社会公平,最终达到人的全面发展。自1992年联合国环境与发展大会以来,国际社会积极推动实施《关于环境与发展的里约宣言》、《21世纪议程》和《可持续发展首脑会议执行计划》,各种形式的国际和区域环发合作深入开展,各个国家为促进可持续发展付出了巨大努力,在消除贫困和实现千年发展目标方面取得一些成绩。但是,全球在经济、环境和社会发展方面正在面临着越来越复杂的形势,全球可持续发展事业依然面临严峻的挑战。本文从经济、环境与社会三个方面,系统分析了全球可持续发展面临的挑战。分析表明:全球经济发展依然不平衡,不稳定性在加大,而且世界贫富差距明显,发达国家对发展中国家的官方援助不足;全球能源结构没有根本性改变,CO2排放不断增加,气候变化问题突出,而且一些国家生态环境问题较为严重;世界总人口数不断增加,各国就业水平难以提高,各国教育水平非常不均衡,而且欠发达国家人均医疗卫生支出水平低,居民健康状况堪忧。针对全球可持续发展面临的挑战,本文提出了相应的对策:①坚持"共同但有区别的责任"原则。可持续发展没有统一的模式,各国的发展阶段、条件和能力的不同必须予以正视;要区别发达国家和发展中国家的不同国情,要充分尊重发展中国家的发展权利;要为发展中国家向可持续发展转型提供技术、资金和能力建设方面的强有力支持。②加强各国政府在环境领域的交流与合作。不仅要重视全球性环境问题,而且更要优先考虑区域性环境问题,特别是发展中国家和最不发达国家面临的生态环境问题。③积极推动全球社会朝向均衡、普惠和共赢的方向发展。世界上所有国家都应有权以平等的身份参与全球治理过程以及不断改进和优化治理机制,而且全球治理结构应该向发展中国家倾斜;要积极消除贫困、减少不平等现象、使增长具有包容性、使生产和消费更可持续;要增强人们做出可持续选择的权利,特别是妇女、年轻人、失业者以及社会最弱势和最脆弱群体的权利等。     

Fuelwood assessment at micro-watershed level in Northeast Himalaya:a case study in Manipur,India

Fuelwood is one of the major sources of energy in the domestic sector across the rural areas,especially in the developing regions across the world.The Northeastern Himalayan state of Manipur is dominated by the tribal population that largely depends on fuelwood from the nearby forest area.The entire dependence on forests for energy resources is affecting the sustainability of the forest ecosystem in the region,thus indicating the livelihood conditions.Since land-use land-cover change is the key driver to the change in resource availability of a region,the present study has tried to analyze the landcover changes over a period 28 years.The second major component affecting resource availability is the increasing population pressure that leads to changes in the land dynamics,which directly affect the resource production.Based on the existing consumption pattern,the total consumption of fuelwood in the watershed ranges fiom a minimum of 289.992 tons/year to a maximum of 3545.719 tons/year with an average of 1561.956 tons/year in the year 2009 and simulated fuelwood consumption for the year 2021 is around 1469.260 tons/year.Nine different probable scenarios of resource are proposed to calculate the stress value that can be used by the policy-makers and planners for suitable policy implementation at the micro level with a complex social system.     

Addressing food supply chain and consumption inefficiencies: potential for climate change mitigation

Globally, more than 30 % of all food that is produced is ultimately lost and/or wasted through inefficiencies in the food supply chain. In the developed world this wastage is centred on the last stage in the supply chain; the end-consumer throwing away food that is purchased but not eaten. In contrast, in the developing world the bulk of lost food occurs in the early stages of the supply chain (production, harvesting and distribution). Excess food consumption is a similarly inefficient use of global agricultural production; with almost 1 billion people now classed as obese, 842 million people are suffering from chronic hunger. Given the magnitude of greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector, strategies that reduce food loss and wastage, or address excess caloric consumption, have great potential as effective tools in global climate change mitigation. Here, we examine the challenges of robust quantification of food wastage and consumption inefficiencies, and their associated greenhouse gas emissions, along the supply chain. We find that the quality and quantity of data are highly variable within and between geographical regions, with the greatest range tending to be associated with developing nations. Estimation of production-phase GHG emissions for food wastage and excess consumption is found to be similarly challenging on a global scale, with use of IPCC default (Tier 1) emission factors for food production being required in many regions. Where robust food waste data and production-phase emission factors do exist—such as for the UK—we find that avoiding consumer-phase food waste can deliver significant up-stream reductions in GHG emissions from the agricultural sector. Eliminating consumer milk waste in the UK alone could mitigate up to 200 Gg CO₂e year^?1; scaled up globally, we estimate mitigation potential of over 25,000 Gg CO₂e year^?1.     

Fuelwood assessment at micro-watershed level in Northeast Himalaya: a case study in Manipur,India

Fuelwood is one of the major sources of energy in the domestic sector across the rural areas, especially in the developing regions across the world. The Northeastern Himalayan state of Manipur is dominated by the tribal population that largely depends on fuelwood from the nearby forest area. The entire dependence on forests for energy resources is affecting the sustainability of the forest ecosystem in the region, thus indicating the livelihood conditions. Since land-use land-cover change is the key driver to the change in resource availability of a region, the present study has tried to analyze the land-cover changes over a period 28 years. The second major component affecting resource availability is the increasing population pressure that leads to changes in the land dynamics, which directly affect the resource production. Based on the existing consumption pattern, the total consumption of fuelwood in the watershed ranges from a minimum of 289.992 tons/year to a maximum of 3545.719 tons/year with an average of 1561.956 tons/year in the year 2009 and simulated fuelwood consumption for the year 2021 is around 1469.260 tons/year. Nine different probable scenarios of resource are proposed to calculate the stress value that can be used by the policy-makers and planners for suitable policy implementation at the micro level with a complex social system.     

基于信息熵的省域内能源消费总量分配研究

能源消费总量控制是保障能源安全,积极应对气候变暖的重要手段;省域内能源消费量的合理分配,是落实国家能源消费总量控制的有效措施。提出能源消费总量分配应以公平为主、考虑区域发展权益的同时兼顾效率的原则,秉承“定基数,分增量”的思想,构建了基于信息熵的多因子混合加权分配模型,对目标年能源消费增量进行分配;选择了10个指标从经济水平、能耗水平、发展现状、产业结构及城市发展定位5个方面描述各地区的节能潜力及控制能耗量的责任,拟对能源消费总量在省内各市区的分配进行探索性研究。并以安徽省为例,对安徽省2015年能源消费总量分配到各市区进行了实证分析。结果显示,2015年安徽省17个市区能耗分配量增长率范围为1193%~5045%,能耗增幅的分配结果整体上受各市区人均GDP和人均能源消费量水平所支配,受单位工业增加值能耗和城市化率所调控     

Non-timber forest product dependence among the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Jah Hut</Emphasis> subgroup of Peninsular Malaysia’s Orang Asli

Non-timber forest products (NTFP) represent key sources of cash and subsistence income for millions of rural and indigenous peoples living in tropical developing countries throughout the world. The current study investigates the use and significance of NTFP within a sample of Peninsular Malaysia’s Orang Asli (indigenous people). Data collected via household surveys across three sampling phases reveals that more than 75% of the population is actively engaged in NTFP collection. Household responses indicate diversity in both the types and uses of products collected. NTFP collection participation, frequency of collection, and collection reliance are found to be significantly negatively related to village proximity to the market, as well as to income level relative to the Malaysian poverty line. When collection variables are examined by different product categories, relationships with market access and income group are variable. Implications for different approaches to forest conservation and rural development are discussed.     

我国居民消费水平提高对资源、环境影响趋势分析

当人们将注意力集中在如何刺激消费拉动经济增长的时候。却很少有人关注消费规模的扩大对我国资源、环境和生态构成的压力。未来20～30年。中国13亿人中的大多数要从目前的温饱走向小康生活，物质生产与消费的规模将持续扩大，由此将带来的资源短缺与增加的环境压力。应引起政府、企业界和消费者的广泛重视。本文仅对近年来国民物质消费增长导致的资源环境问题以及未来的变化趋势进行分析。以提醒人们在中国走向现代化的今天。适度消费、过节俭的生活还应广泛提倡。