Beta estimates of shares on the JSE Top 40 in the context of reference-day risk

A topic of interest in the finance world is measuring systematic risk. Accurately measuring the systematic risk component—or Beta—of an asset or portfolio is important in many financial applications. In this work, we consider the efficiency of a range of Beta estimation methods commonly used in practice from a reference-day risk perspective. We show that, when using the industry standard data sample of 5 years of monthly returns, the choice of reference-day used to calculate underlying returns has a significant impact on all of the Beta estimation methods considered. Driven by this finding, we propose and test an alternative nonparametric bootstrap approach for calculating Beta estimates which is unaffected by reference-day risk. Our primary goal is to determine a point-estimate of Beta, independent of reference-day.     

Diagnostic variables as predictors of ecological risk

The state of an ecosystem may be represented by a multidemensional state vector,x. The goal of ecosystem management is to insure that the ecosystem remains within some setX of acceptable states, such thatx X. Since ecosystem management decisions must be based on limited knowledge, a small number of diagnostic variables must be found which accurately reflect ecosystem state. If the vector of diagnostic variables, , is found to be within a specified set , the state vectorx is predicted to be withinX. The selection and use of such diagnostic variables is examined in the context of an aquatic ecosystem simulation model. Techniques used in searching for diagnostic criteria include multiple linear regression, discriminant analysis, and visual inspection of graphical data displays. The adequacy of a diagnostic criterion as a predictor of ecological risk is demonstrated to be a function of the associated rates of type I and type II statistical errors. A simple cost-benefit analysis is undertaken to illustrate one approach for choosing an optimal balance between these error rates.     

Consumer product safety: Risk assessment of exposure to asbestos emissions from hand-held hair dryers

The United States Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) is concerned that consumer exposure to asbestos from consumer products may present an unreasonable risk of injury. Recently, CPSC has obtained agreement by industry to cease production and distribution of hair dryers containing asbestos heat insulation. CPSC intends to broaden its investigation by selecting consumer products containing asbestos for priority attention. The Commission does not intend to make quantitative estimates of cancer risks posed by exposure to asbestos fibers in making regulatory decisions. This position may lead to a serious waste of resources for the Commission, industry, and society. The Commission should focus its initial attention on those products for which the release of asbestos is significant enough to cause an unreasonable health risk. To make a risk assessment for a particular use of asbestos, CPSC must acquire or request data on asbestos emissions and define unreasonable risk to health.In an attempt to give some meaning to the phrase risk assessment, the primary goal of this paper is to present a detailed risk assessment of exposure to asbestos from hand-held hair dryers. Several scenarios of use are presented using various assumptions regarding time of operation, mixing of fibers in a small room, rate of fiber emission, and time of exposure. The worst case analysis of the health risk of exposure to hair dryer emissions is based on several conservative assumptions and shows that the increased number of deaths per year due to respiratory cancer is 4 for the entire United States population. A more representative case analysis shows the increased number of deaths to be on the order of 0.15 per year.     

IMPACT ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR CLEAR WATER FISHES EXPOSED TO EXCESSIVELY CLOUDY WATER1

ABSTRACT: A new type of empirical model described here enables real time assessment of impacts caused by excessive water cloudiness as a function of (a) reduced visual clarity (excessive cloudiness) and (b) duration of exposure to cloudy conditions, in fisheries or fish life stages adapted to life in clear water ecosystems. This model takes the familiar form used in earlier suspended sediment dose effect models where z is severity of ill effect (SEV), x is duration of exposure (h), y is black disk sighting range (y BD, m)—a measure of water clarity, a is the intercept, and b and c are slope coefficients. As calibrated in this study the model is Severity of ill effect is ranked on a 15‐step scale that ranges from 0 to 14, where zero represents nil effect and 14 represents 100 percent mortality. This model, based on peer consultation and limited meta analysis of peer reviewed reports, accomplishes the following: (a) identifies the threshold of the onset of ill effects among clear water fishes; (b) postulates the rate at which serious ill effects are likely to escalate as a function of reduced visual clarity and persistence; (c) provides a context (the “visual clarity” matrix, with its cell coordinates) to share and compare information about impacts as a function of visual clarity “climate” (d) demonstrates changes in predator prey interactions at exposures greater than and less than the threshold of direct ill effects; (e) calibrates trout reactive distance (cm) as function of water clarity in the form where y represents reactive distance (cm) and x represents visual clarity (black disk sighting range, cm), and where a and b are intercept and slope respectively, such that (f) identifies black disk sighting range, in meters, and its reciprocal, beam attenuation, as preferred monitoring variables; and (g) provides two additional optical quality variables (Secchi disk extinction distance and turbidity) which, suitably calibrated as they have been in this study, expand the range of monitoring options in situations in which the preferred technology—beam attenuation equipment or black disk sighting equipment—is unavailable or impractical to use. This new model demonstrates the efficacy of peer collaboration and defines new research horizons for its refinement.     

Application of Artificial Neural Networks to Predict Total Dissolved Solids at the Karaj Dam

We applied multilayer perceptron (MLP) and radial basis function (RBF) neural networks using data from two water quality monitoring stations at the Karaj Dam in Iran. Input data were calcium ions (Ca²⁺), magnesium ions (Mg²⁺), sodium ions (Na⁺), chloride ions (Cl^?), sulfate (), and pH, and the output data were total dissolved solids (TDS). An MLP with one hidden layer containing eight neurons was selected for the upstream water quality station using normalized input data. We developed a second MLP neural network for the downstream station with one hidden layer containing 10 neurons in the hidden layer using normalized input data. Considering applying normalized input data and one hidden layer, the coefficient of determination (R ²) and index of agreement (IA) between the observed and the predicted data for the upstream and downstream monitoring stations using the MLP neural networks were 0.985, 0.84, 0.99, and 0.92, respectively. The RBF neural network with 100 neurons in its hidden layer reached the minimum errors between the observed and the predicted results in upstream and downstream stations. The R ² between observed and predicted data for upstream and downstream monitoring stations for the RBF was 0.999 and 0.998, respectively. Data normalization improved the performance of the MLP neural networks. Sensitivity analysis indicated that magnesium is the most effective water quality parameter for predicting TDS, and sulfate is the second most effective water quality parameter affecting TDS prediction at the Karaj Dam.     

PREDICTING FECAL COLIFORM BACTERIA LEVELS IN THE CHARLES RIVER,MASSACHUSETTS, USA1

In Massachusetts, the Charles River Watershed Association conducts a regular water quality monitoring and public notification program in the Charles River Basin during the recreational season to inform users of the river's health. This program has relied on laboratory analyses of river samples for fecal coliform bacteria levels, however, results are not available until at least 24 hours after sampling. To avoid the need for laboratory analyses, ordinary least squares (OLS) and logistic regression models were developed to predict fecal coliform bacteria concentrations and the probabilities of exceeding the Massachusetts secondary contact recreation standard for bacteria based on meteorological conditions and streamflow. The OLS models resulted in adjusted R²s ranging from 50 to 60 percent. An uncertainty analysis reveals that of the total variability of fecal coliform bacteria concentrations, 45 percent is explained by the OLS regression model, 15 percent is explained by both measurement and space sampling error, and 40 percent is explained by time sampling error. Higher accuracy in future bacteria forecasting models would likely result from reductions in laboratory measurement errors and improved sampling designs.     

Global sustainability: Toward measurement

The widespread interest in the concept of sustainable environment and development has been accompanied by the need to develop useful systems of measurement. We discuss the use of indicators which might be used to assess such conditions. Our characteristics, or criteria, for desirable global sustainability indicators are:

sensitivity to change in time

sensitivity to change across space or within groups

predictive ability

availability of reference or threshold values

ability to measure reversibility or controllability

appropriate data transformation

integrative ability

relative ease of collection and use

We discuss the basis of these characteristics, and examine two categories of indicators (soil erosion and population) and two specific indicators (physical quality of life index and energy imports as a percentage of consumption) for their value as sustainability measures.     

Multi-criteria risk management with the use of <Emphasis Type="Italic">DecernsMCDA</Emphasis>: methods and case studies

Emerging challenges of risk management, environmental protection, and land-use planning requires integration of stakeholder values and expert judgment. The process of decision making in situation of high uncertainty can be assisted through the use of decision support systems (DSSs). Such DSSs are often based on tools for spatial data representation (GIS) and environmental models that are integrated using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). This paper presents DecernsMCDA implementing all major types of multi-criteria methods and tools (AHP, MAUT, Outranking) under the same user interface. In addition to providing ability for testing model uncertainty associated with selection of specific MCDA algorithms, DecernsMCDA implements new algorithms for parameter uncertainty analysis based on probabilistic approaches and fuzzy sets. The paper illustrates application of DecernsMCDA for selecting remedial alternative at radiologically contaminated sites.     

MATHEMATICAL GENERALIZATION OF STREAM TEMPERATURE IN CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND1

ABSTRACT: The empirical fit of an annual harmonic function to stream temperature measurements in central New England can be improved by considering a harmonic period of less than 365 days instead of 365 or 366 days. Generalized equations, developed using periodic temperature data from 27 streamflow stations, allow predictions of stream temperature at any site given (1) the mean basin altitude (E), in meters above mean sea level, and (2) station latitude (LAT), in degrees. Stream temperature t, in degrees Celsius, on day number d, in days starting with January 1, is estimated as: in which, M = 31.48 – 0.0025 (E) ? 0.4635 (LAT) with standard error of estimate of 0.62°C, and τ= 1228.88 – 21.01 (LAT) with standard error of estimate of 14.1 days.     

The Importance of the Chosen Technique to Estimate Diffuse Solar Radiation by Means of Regression

The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) is one of the widely used methods which is used for estimating the diffuse solar radiation. However, in order to use the OLS method in the estimation, the dataset must provide certain assumptions. In this study, alternative robust methods have been described and they were compared with the OLS method, which is used for estimating diffuse radiation frequently in an application. At the end of the analysis, the R² value obtained by the OLS method is less than the values obtained by M regression models. In other words, the explanation of the dependent value is weak when the OLS method is used. Finally, it can be said that the most appropriate method is Andrews for estimating the diffuse solar radiation.     

Environmental Ethics and Biomimetic Ethics: Nature as Object of Ethics and Nature as Source of Ethics

While the contemporary biomimicry movement is associated primarily with the idea of taking Nature as model for technological innovation, it also contains a normative or ethical principle—Nature as measure—that may be treated in relative isolation from the better known principle of Nature as model. Drawing on discussions of the principle of Nature as measure put forward by Benyus (Biomimicry: innovation inspired by nature, Harper Perennial, New York, 1997) and Jackson (Consulting the genius of place: an ecological approach to a new agriculture, Counterpoint, Berkeley, 2010, Nature as measure: the selected essays of Wes Jackson, Counterpoint, Berkeley, 2011), while at the same time situating these discussions in relation to contemporary debates in the philosophy of biomimicry (Mathews in Organ Environ 24(4): 364–387, 2011; Dicks in Philos Technol, doi: 10.1007/s13347-015-0210-2, 2015; Blok and Gremmen in J Agric Environ Ethics 29(2):203–217, 2016), the aim of this paper is to explore the relation between the principle of Nature as measure and environmental ethics. This leads to the argument that mainstream formulations of environmental ethics share the common trait of seeing our ethical relation to Nature as primarily involving duties to protect, preserve, or conserve various values in Nature, and that, in doing so, they problematically either overlook or dismiss as anthropocentric the possibility that Nature may provide measures, understood in terms of ecological standards, against which our own practices, or at least some of them, may be judged—a way of thinking I call “biomimetic ethics”. The practical consequences of this argument are significant. Whereas mainstream environmental ethics has been applied above all to such issues as wilderness preservation, natural resource management, and animal rights and welfare, biomimetic ethics is applicable rather to the question of how we produce, use, and consume things, and, as such, may potentially provide the basic ethical framework required to underpin the transition to a circular, bio-based, solar economy.     

Multiple-criteria decision-aiding framework to analyze and assess the governance of sustainability

Past and present disasters and scandals, such as the BP Deepwater Horizon oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010, the Servier Mediator (Benfluorex) scandal in 2009 and the Enron collapse in 2001, have uncovered weaknesses in governance issues. The authors argue that there is a need to develop methods and tools to diagnose and assess the governance of organizations with respect to Sustainable Development (SD). However, this task remains difficult due to the fact that it is difficult to appraise the quality of governance. The authors propose a protocol to diagnose and analyze the governance of SD and explore the use of multiple-criteria decision-aiding methods to achieve this task. Two aggregation methods to assess the global governance are proposed: (1) The identification of a final governance index for an Organization. This method helps in establishing a global diagnosis of the quality of the governance of an Organization with respect to SD challenges. The governance index is based on the calculation of three indexes: the partial opportunity index, the partial risk index and the partial equilibrium index. (2) The ranking of a set of Organizations according to their governance of SD. This method aims at assessing a set of Organizations based on a pairwise comparison according to a set of criteria that represents the seven domains of the ISO 26000 norm (ISO 26000—Guidance on social responsibility, 2010). This method is based on the outranking aggregation approach ELECTRE III. A practical example is used to illustrate two methods of governance assessment.     

Public involvement in the EIS process

In the United States public involvement in the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) process is required by Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) Guidelines, Executive mandates, and agency guidelines. Public participation after the initial Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and throughout the preparation of the Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) is desirable for it permits contributions from:

1. those who are directly affected by a proposed project.
2. individuals with expertise in environmental fields that may be affected by government action.

Early public participation can be useful in identifying environmental problems and potential sources of controversy. A systematic approach should be applied by government agencies to solicit public opinion throughout the preparation of the DEIS. Early, active, and meaningful participation particularly by those government and public segments most affected by the proposed project is a positive step towards effectively using the EIS as a management tool for mitigating impacts to the human environment. Here we discuss the role of public participation in the EIS process and develop an approach for initiating early and expressive public participation.     

Management and valuation of an environmentally sensitive area: Norfolk Broadland,England, case study

Wetlands, like any other environmentally sensitive resource, require very careful evaluation. While it is accepted that all wetlands may be equally valuable in terms of maintaining global life-support systems, individual areas may be ranked according to their uniqueness or the irreplaceability of the resource should the wetland be developed. The various techniques available for evaluating the wetland resource in the development versus conservation conflict situation are critically assessed. Indirect appraisal via the opportunity cost method can generate valuable data which have contributed to the mitigation of such conflict situations.The Broadland, in Norfolk, England, recently designated an environmentally sensitive area (ESA), provides a case study example of wetland management. The search for an acceptable flood alleviation strategy for the ESA is examined in detail. The economic and environmental asset structure of the study area is examined at two levels. A basic screening system is applied to each of the identified flood protection planning units to enable the rank ordering of the units. A more detailed appraisal is then made of the value of selected units so that the cost-effectiveness of any planned expenditure on flood protection works can be assessed. Specific management issues and their likely effect on the environment, in terms of land use for example, are also addressed. The 1986 Agriculture Act marks a potential watershed in British conservation policy. The ESA policy encompasses a dual management strategy that attempts to stimulate compatible agricultural and conservation practices and activities. Other countries that still retain significant unspoiled wetland resources may find that preemptive regulatory government intervention in favor of conservation would help to avoid the worst aspects of the British experience.     

Investment in human capital in Africa

Summary The author analyses the problems currently faced by the African continent, recognises six factors which he believes are important in influencing the analysis, and argues that the only secure, renewable asset any country or continent has, is its people. He maintains that people development, rather than the classical economic forms of encouraging development, offers Africa a viable way forward. He then identifies a number of specific issues within such a strategy of investment in human capital.Brian Walker is the President of the International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED), and this address was given at the inaugural meeting of the International Year of Shelter for the Homeless, in London, on 18th April, 1985. A second, earlier, associated address was published inThe Environmentalist 5(3) 167–170.     

PREDICTING STORMFLOW AND PEAKFLOW FROM SMALL BASINS IN HUMID AREAS BY THE R-INDEX METHOD1

ABSTRACT: A relatively simple nonlinear equation was fitted to 468 stormflows larger than 0.05 area inches on 11 forested basins from New Hampshire to South Carolina, providing a predictive method for use on forest and wildlands in humid regions. Stormflow in area inches (Q?) was: where R is the mean value of Q/P for all P larger than one inch, P is storm rainfall in inches, and I is the initial flow rate in ft³/sec/mi². S.E. was 0.3 inch of stormflow. Peakflow was similarly estimated, S.E. 26 ft³/sec/mi². The R-index method is proposed as a practical tool in forest and wildland management. Similar to the SCS runoff curve number method, the R-index method requires no prior assumptions about infiltration capacities of forest lands, but calls for the mapping of all first-order streams for the average storage capacity index R, i.e., the mean hydrologic response of the source areas. Tested against the runoff curve method on four independent basins, predictions by the R-index method were considerably more accurate when field information normally available to planners and managers was used in both methods.     

Public reaction to the risks of energy technology

Implicit in every government decision on energy technology is a trade-off of a certain amount of risk in return for societal benefits. As a result of growing public concern over such risks, environmental analysts are increasingly being requested not only to describe potential adverse consequences but also to quantify their probability. However, this task is frustrated not only by inadequate experience with, and incomplete knowledge of, the causality of environmental impacts, but also by a disparity between individual and societal views of risk. While the societal view is based on objective risk functions andnet societal benefit, individuals tend to rely on subjective judgment, and consider the distribution as well as the amount of benefit. Thus, environmental risk assessments, produced by analysts on behalf of society as a whole, are likely to be quite speculative, and are unlikely to be reliable indicators of the acceptability of risk to the public.     

Regional impervious surface estimation: an urban heat island application

This paper describes a GIS-based estimation method that can be used to forecast future amounts of impervious surface as a mitigation measure for urban heat island effect in a metropolitan region. The method is unique because it employs a regression model that links the existing amount of impervious surface to population and employment at the census tract level. This approach provides a means to forecast future amounts of impervious surface based on projected population and employment. The method also includes a detailed analysis of high-resolution aerial photography to divide impervious surfaces into different categories. Subdividing impervious surfaces is necessary to evaluate potential urban heat island mitigation policies for different types of impervious surface. The analysis here shows that the impervious surface in the metropolitan Atlanta region will increase to 2638 km2 2. “The Albedo is defined as the hemispherical reflectivity averaged over the solar spectrum. A perfect reflector has a = 1, and a perfect absorber has a = 0” (Pomerantz et al. 1999 Pomerantz, M. 1999. Reflective surfaces for cooler buildings and cities. Philosophical magazine B, 79: 1457–1476. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] [Google Scholar], p. 1458). View all notes in 2030, an increase of 45% from 2000. The most common type of impervious surface is dark-coloured pavement. Within this study area, the analyses showed that two-thirds of impervious surfaces are dark. Replacing dark pavement with light pavement materials, therefore, represents an important opportunity to mitigate the urban heat island effect in the Atlanta region.     

A risk index methodology for potentially polluting marine sites

Attempting to assess the risk of a release from a potentially polluting marine site (PPMS) can be a very subjective process. The Marine Site Risk Index (MaSiRI) is designed to provide a more objective approach to this process by adopting a table-based evaluation scheme, while still allowing for the inevitable unknown conditions by including a subjective ‘expert correction’ in a suitably controlled manner. Building on a geographic database of PPMS records, the MaSiRI algorithm applies data filters to remove PPMS records for which it is not applicable and then estimates a basic risk index based on core data that almost all sites would contain. It can then refine the results for those sites that have auxiliary data, varying the assessed risk as appropriate, according to standard rule-sets. A risk level of confidence is computed and adjusted to express dynamic confidence in the risk value (e.g., due to reliance on estimates rather than measured values), and where appropriate an upper and lower bound of risk can be used to assess the range of values associated with an estimated parameter. This information can be visualized by a composite quality symbol proposed here. MaSiRI is demonstrated on three illustrative shipwrecks and then compared against the DEvelopment of European guidelines for Potentially Polluting (DEEPP) project database from the Pelagos Sanctuary in the western Mediterranean. The aggregate results of the comparison are broadly similar to DEEPP, within the limits of the comparison, but provide a more detailed analysis in the case of estimated pollutant volume and ubiquitous assessment of levels of confidence.     

Appreciating the biodiversity of remnant bushland: an ‘architectural’ approach

Tutor in the Department of Geography at the University of Western Australia. In response to the fragmentation and loss of indigenous vegetation caused by the expansion of metropolitan Perth, all levels of government in Western Australia have made some commitment to the preservation of biodiversity. A case for seeing and using vegetation structure as a possible surrogate for biodiversity is presented. The concept and a simple methodology which may be applied without any specialist ecological knowledge or expertise is outlined for the urban developer, engineer, planner, decision maker and educator. The notion that the degree of diversity of the vegetation structure of a banksia woodland remnant may indicate and give a substitute or preliminary measure of biodiversity assists the popular understanding of biodiversity. Such a non-technical yet objective appreciation and measure may prove satisfactory for some conservation purposes, until a detailed professional assessment is made of the plant and animal species in a remnant of native vegetation. It is currently being used by state planning staff in Western Australia for the preliminary assessment of native woodland in areas zoned for urban growth at the metropolitan fringe.