Measuring and Incorporating Vulnerability into Conservation Planning

Conservation planning is the process of locating and designing conservation areas to promote the persistence of biodiversity in situ. To do this, conservation areas must be able to mitigate at least some of the proximate threats to biodiversity. Information on threatening processes and the relative vulnerability of areas and natural features to these processes is therefore crucial for effective conservation planning. However, measuring and incorporating vulnerability into conservation planning have been problematic. We develop a conceptual framework of the role of vulnerability assessments in conservation planning and propose a definition of vulnerability that incorporates three dimensions: exposure, intensity, and impact. We review and categorize methods for assessing the vulnerability of areas and the features they contain and identify the relative strengths and weaknesses of each broad approach. Our review highlights the need for further development and evaluation of approaches to assess vulnerability and for comparisons of their relative effectiveness.     

Exploring the relationship between residential segregation and thermal inequity in 20 U.S. cities

A combination of the urban heat island effect and a rising temperature baseline resulting from global climate change inequitably impacts socially vulnerable populations residing in urban areas. This article examines racial/ethnic and socioeconomic inequities in the spatial distribution of exposure to urban heat in the context of climate justice and residential segregation in the U.S. An urban heat risk index (UHRI) is calculated from measures of land surface temperature, structural density, and vegetation abundance, acquired from summer 2010 remote sensing imagery. Twenty of the largest metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the U.S. are selected and analysed using census tract-level socio-demographic data from the U.S. Census. Multilevel modelling is utilised to examine the statistical associations between urban heat, minority status, socioeconomic disadvantage, and MSA-level segregation of racial/ethnic minority groups. Variables representing socioeconomic status (i.e. household income, home ownership, and education level) are consistently and significantly associated with greater urban heat exposure. Minority status and measures of segregation have a significant but varied relationship with urban heat exposure, indicating that there are inconsistent associations with urban heat due to differing social geographies. Urban heat and social vulnerability present a varying landscape of thermal inequity in different metropolitan areas, associated in many cases with residential segregation.     

Vulnerability of the South African farming sector to climate change and variability: An indicator approach

This paper analyses the vulnerability of South African agriculture to climate change and variability by developing a vulnerability index and comparing vulnerability indicators across the nine provinces of the country. Nineteen environmental and socio‐economic indicators are identified to reflect the three components of vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results of the study show that the regions most exposed to climate change and variability do not always overlap with those experiencing high sensitivity or low adaptive capacity. Furthermore, vulnerability to climate change and variability is intrinsically linked with social and economic development. The Western Cape and Gauteng provinces, which have high levels of infrastructure development, high literacy rates, and low shares of agriculture in total GDP, are relatively low on the vulnerability index. In contrast, the highly vulnerable regions of Limpopo, Kwazulu‐Natal and the Eastern Cape are characterised by densely populated rural areas, large numbers of small‐scale farmers, high dependency on rain‐fed agriculture and high land degradation. These large differences in the extent of vulnerability among provinces suggest that policymakers should develop region‐specific policies and address climate change at the local level.     

Perceived causes, exposures and adjustments to seasonal heat in different residential areas in Ibadan, Nigeria

Local perception can be an important resource for assessing and managing climate-related extremes and identifying adjustment strategies unique to specific settings. The objectives of the study are two-fold. Firstly, it examined the perceived causes, exposures and adjustments to seasonal heat events using different residential density areas of Ibadan, Nigeria, as spatial units of analysis. Secondly, it investigated the relationship between heat exposure, built environment, socio-economic and cultural factors. Results show that intense heat from the sun, climate change and absence of rains, among others, was identified as perceived causes. Number of electricity hours, distance from water supply points and the number of neighborhood trees were listed as the three most important factors affecting heat exposure. In addition, there were considerable variations in the perceived causes (F?=?4.86, p?<?0.05), in exposures (F?=?3.61, p?<?0.05), and in adjustments to seasonal heat (F?=?8.75, p?<?0.05) across different residential density areas in Ibadan, Nigeria. The study demonstrates that local knowledge based on the perceptions, exposures and adjustments to seasonal heat waves has the potential in some cases to provide valid inputs into vulnerability and adaptation assessments.     

Satellite Monitoring of Urban Sprawl and Assessment of its Potential Environmental Impact in the Greater Toronto Area Between 1985 and 2005

This research investigates urban sprawl in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) between 1985 and 2005 and the nature of the resulting landscape fragmentation, particularly with regard to the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM), an ecologically important area for the region. Six scenes of Landsat TM imagery were acquired in summer of 1985, 1995, and 2005. These images and their texture measures were classified into eight land cover classes with very satisfactory final overall accuracies (93–95?%). Analysis of the classifications indicated that urban areas grew by 20?% between 1985 and 1995 and by 15?% between 1995 and 2005. Landscape fragmentation due to spatio-temporal land cover changes was evaluated using urban compactness indicators and landscape metrics, and results from the latter were used to draw conclusions about probable environmental impact. The indicator results showed that urban proportions increased in nearly all areas outside of the metropolitan center, including on portions of the ORM. The landscape metrics reveal that low density urban areas increased significantly in the GTA between 1985 and 2005, mainly at the expense of agricultural land. The metric results indicate increased vulnerability and exposure to adverse effects for natural and semi-natural land cover through greater contrast and lowered connectivity. The degree of urban perimeter increased around most environmentally significant areas in the region. Changes like these negatively impact species and the regional water supply in the GTA. Further investigation into specific environmental impacts of urban expansion in the region and which areas on the ORM are most at risk is recommended.     

Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment Combining the Drastic and Dyna-Clue Model in the Argentine Pampas

Vulnerability assessment is considered an effective tool in establishing monitoring networks required for controlling potential pollution. The aim of this work is to propose a new integrated methodology to assess actual and forecasted groundwater vulnerability by including land-use change impact on groundwater quality. Land-use changes were simulated by applying a spatial dynamics model in a scenario of agricultural expansion. Groundwater vulnerability methodology DRASTIC-P, was modifyed by adding a land-use parameter in order to assess groundwater vulnerability within a future scenario. This new groundwater vulnerability methodology shows the areas where agricultural activities increase the potential level of groundwater vulnerability to pollution. The Dulce Creek Basin was the study case proposed for the application of this methodology. The study revealed that the area with Very High vulnerability would increase 20% by the year 2020 in the Dulce Creek Basin. This result can be explained by analyzing the land-use map simulated by the Dyna-CLUE model for the year 2020, which shows that the areas with increments in crop and pasture coincide with the area defined by the Very High aquifer vulnerability category in the year 2020. Through scenario analysis, land-use change models can help to identify medium or long term critical locations in the face of environmental change.     

The USGS Water Availability and Use Science Program: Needs,Establishment, and Goals of a Water Census

Many reports have recognized the need for a national water census for the United States and have called upon the U.S. Geological Survey to undertake this challenge. For example, the National Science and Technology Council stated: “The United States has a strong need for an ongoing census of water that describes the status of our Nation's water resource at any point in time and identifies trends over time.” Responding to the need for this information, the U.S. Congress established the SECURE Water Act. The directives are to provide a more accurate assessment of the status of the water resources of the United States; determine the quantity of water available for beneficial uses; identify long‐term trends in water availability; assist in determination of the quality of the water resources; and develop the basis for an improved ability to forecast the availability of water for future economic, energy production, and environmental uses. This article provides summary and new information on the process and progress on work to estimate water budget components nationwide, involvement of stakeholder interests, efforts to examine water‐use characteristics throughout the Nation, studies of water availability in geographically focused areas and the initiation of methods to provide open access to existing and new water resources information contributing to Open Water Data Initiative (OWDI) efforts and objectives.     

Environmental inequality and flood hazard

This paper reports findings from research conducted for the Environment Agency1 investigating the social distribution of the risk of flooding in England and Wales. Following a broadly outcome based analysis, and using socio-geographic modelling techniques and the 1991 Census, the social class characteristics of the population at risk from flooding were explored and compared with the population considered not at risk as a means to uncover any evidence of social inequality. The Environment Agency indicative flood plain maps (1 in 100 year return for fluvial and 1 in a 200 year return for tidal flooding) were used to identify at risk areas. Two different methods of capturing the at risk population were employed; one based on census enumeration districts and the other using surface population models which redistribute the area population over a grid surface of the area of interest. The two methods provide completely different results. The enumeration district method indicates that those in higher social classes are the most likely to be exposed to flood hazard while the grid method indicates that it is those in the lower social classes who are most at risk. We suggest that the grid method provides a more accurate analysis but highlight the significant effect that the choice of areal unit and spatial analysis can have on conclusions about the extent of any inequality in vulnerability to flooding.     

Southwest climate gap: poverty and environmental justice in the US Southwest

This article examines the “climate gap” in the Southwest US (Arizona and New Mexico), referring to the “disproportionate and unequal implications of climate change and climate change mitigation” for “people of color and the poor” [Shonkoff, S.B., et al., 2011. The climate gap: environmental health and equity implications of climate change mitigation policies in California. Climatic Change, 109 (Suppl. 1), S485–S503]. The climate and poverty relationship is examined using multi-scaled analysis across three indicators of climate vulnerability, focusing on connections to health, food, and energy during the period 2010–2012. We provide an overview of climate-related social vulnerability in the Southwest based on available federal, state, and county-level census data. We then summarise the results from a stakeholder workshop and in-depth interviews about climate vulnerabilities with social service providers in southern Arizona. We identify a significant Southwest climate gap based on census data and interview findings about climate vulnerability especially relating to high levels of poverty, health disparities, and increasing costs for energy, water, and food. We find that grassroots and community organisations have mobilised to respond to climate and social vulnerability, yet resources for mitigation and adaptation are insufficient given the high level of need. Confronting a changing climate that is projected to be hotter, drier, and with the potential to reach new thresholds, we suggest that more research needs to be done to understand the social and spatial characteristics of climate risk and how low-income populations embody and experience climate risk, and adapt to a changing climate.     

Multi-angle Indicators System of Non-point Pollution Source Assessment in Rural Areas: A Case Study Near Taihu Lake

This study aims to identify key environmental risk sources contributing to water eutrophication and to suggest certain risk management strategies for rural areas. The multi-angle indicators included in the risk source assessment system were non-point source pollution, deficient waste treatment, and public awareness of environmental risk, which combined psychometric paradigm methods, the contingent valuation method, and personal interviews to describe the environmental sensitivity of local residents. Total risk values of different villages near Taihu Lake were calculated in the case study, which resulted in a geographic risk map showing which village was the critical risk source of Taihu eutrophication. The increased application of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N), loss vulnerability of pollutant, and a lack of environmental risk awareness led to more serious non-point pollution, especially in rural China. Interesting results revealed by the quotient between the scores of objective risk sources and subjective risk sources showed what should be improved for each study village. More environmental investments, control of agricultural activities, and promotion of environmental education are critical considerations for rural environmental management. These findings are helpful for developing targeted and effective risk management strategies in rural areas.     

Identifying areas of high herpetofauna diversity that are threatened by planned infrastructure projects in Spain

A major task related to conservation is to predict if planned infrastructure projects are likely to threaten biodiversity. In this study we investigated the potential impact of planned infrastructure in Spain on amphibian and reptile species, two highly vulnerable groups given their limited dispersal and current situation of population decline. We used distribution data of both groups to identify areas of high herpetofauna diversity, and compared the locations of these areas with the locations of the planned road, high-speed train railway and water reservoir network. Four criteria were used for this identification: species richness, rarity, vulnerability, and a combined index of the three criteria. From a total of 1441 cells of 20 x 20 km, areas of high diversity were defined as those cells whose ranked values for the different criteria included either all species or all threatened species. The combined index provided the smallest number of cells needed to retain all threatened species (1.7 and 2.6% of the cells for amphibian and reptile species, respectively). Coincidences between these high diversity areas and cells including planned infrastructures-denominated 'alert planning units'-were 35.4% for amphibians and 31.2% for reptiles. Mitigation of the potential impacts would include actions such as barriers to animal access to roads and railways and ecoducts under these constructions. Our approach provides conservation authorities information that can be used to make decisions on habitat protection. A technique that identifies threats to herpetofauna before they occur is also likely to improve the chance of herpetofauna being protected.     

Vulnerability and adaptation to heat in cities: perspectives and perceptions of local adaptation decision-makers in Sweden

Climate change vulnerability is disproportionately distributed between different population segments in society. This study qualitatively explores how key stakeholders in municipalities (i.e. planning and operational staff in municipalities and the vulnerable themselves) construct social vulnerability in relation to climate change with a specific focus on thermal stress (i.e. heat waves) and which adaptive responses they identify at different levels. The empirical material consists of five focus groups with actors in a large Swedish municipality where the “Vulnerability Factor Card Game” was used as stimulus material to create 10 fictional individuals. The results show that there is a substantial amount of local knowledge about vulnerability drivers and inter-relations between social factors and vulnerability. Local decision-makers also defined a wide range of possible adaptation measures at different municipal levels. Our study clearly indicates that contextualised knowledge, which could complement the quantitative approaches in research, is abundant among municipal planners, staff employed at municipal operations such as health care, and among the vulnerable themselves. This knowledge remains untapped by research to a great extent and only seems to have an insignificant influence on policy-making. In particular, how impacts vary between different social and demographic groups and how adaptation strategies that target the most vulnerable could be defined are of great interest. The present study clearly indicates that social hierarchy may produce increased inequality in the specific context of climate change, vulnerability and adaptive responses at different levels.     

A Methodology for an integrated risk assessment of spatially relevant hazards

Natural and technological disasters of the past have shown that such incidences significantly affect local and regional development. Faced with the task of ensuring economic, human and environmental development as well as insuring physical structures, planning authorities, insurance companies and emergency managers are looking for methodologies to identify highly sensitive areas in terms of their overall risk. Existing methodologies like the Natural Hazard Index for Megacities or the Total Place Vulnerability Index have limitations due to their sectoral approach, which makes them less useful for integrated spatial planning. This paper presents the Integrated Risk Assessment of Multi-Hazards as a new approach to serve as a basis for a spatial risk management process. The approach integrates various hazards into an integrated hazard map, combines this with the region's vulnerability and thus produces an integrated risk map. Moreover, the methodology offers a tool to derive weighting factors for hazards as well as for vulnerability components.     

Assessing impacts of introduced aquatic species: Grass carp in large systems

Introduced species have created environmental benefits and unanticipated disasters so a priori assessments of species introductions are needed for environmental management. A checklist for assessing impacts of introduced species was developed from studies of introduced species and recommendations for planning introductions. Sterile, triploid grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella) are just beginning to be used as a biocontrol agent for the management of aquatic vegetation in open waterways. Potential impacts of grass carp in open systems were identified by reviewing grass carp biology relative to the impact assessment checklist. The potential consequences of introduced grass carp were reviewed for one case study. The case study demonstrated that conclusions about potential impacts and monitoring needs can be made despite incomplete information and uncertainty. Indicators of environmental impact and vulnerability of host systems were grouped into six categories: population control, hybridization, diseases and parasites, habitat alterations, biological effects, and management issues. Triploid grass carp can significantly alter habitat and biological resources through the secondary effects of reductions in aquatic vegetation. Potential impacts and significant uncertainties involve fish dispersions from plant control areas, inability to control vegetation loss, loss of diverse plant communities and their dependent species, and conflicts with human use of the water resource. Adequate knowledge existed to assess most potential consequences of releasing large numbers of triploid grass carp in Guntersville Reservoir, Alabama. However, the assessment of potential impacts indicated that moderate, incremental stockings combined with monitoring of vegetation and biological resources are necessary to control the effects of grass carp and achieve desirable, intermediate plant densities. Cooperators: Auburn University (Alabama Agricultural Experiment Station, Department of Fisheries and Allied Aquacultures, Department of Zoology and Wildlife Sciences), US Fish and Wildlife Service, Alabama Game and Fish Division, and the Wildlife Management Institute.     

Development of Indicators to Assess Economic Vulnerabilities to Changes in Ecosystem Services: Case Study of Counties in Maryland,USA

We develop indicators showing the relative environmental burdens that human activities place on locales for a given level of economic benefits. The main purpose is to develop tools that allow us to examine the potential vulnerabilities within economies to changes in resource conditions. The indicators of pollution emission or resource consumption per job can be used to identify potential challenges to resource and industry managers and to compare areas in terms of their ability to adapt to change. For example, if a large number of area jobs are dependent on abundant water, this indicates a vulnerability to a reduction in water availability for industrial use. We develop a case study for 23 counties and 1 city in Maryland to examine the usefulness and limitations of the indicators. Our case study demonstrates that the indicators provide an informative view into patterns of local economic activity and use of an area’s environmental goods and services. In contrast to patterns for total environmental burdens (e.g., total SO₂ emissions) that are typically reported, the rates of environmental burden per job are not simply correlated with high or low economic output. Thus, the indicators represent distinct patterns of environmental burdens per job that reflect reliance on environmental services. The indicators have some limitations when used at this fine scale because they can misrepresent conditions in counties in which economic sectors are dominated by one or a few businesses. For this reason, the indicators are best used as a regional screening tool.     

Is everyone hot in the city? Spatial pattern of land surface temperatures,land cover and neighborhood socioeconomic characteristics in Baltimore,MD

Urban heat island effect refers to the phenomenon that ambient air and surface temperatures in urban areas are several degrees higher than surrounding rural areas. Higher temperatures not only impact the comfort of urban dwellers, but also increase energy use, ozone production, and the risk of death for humans in a heat wave. Our research focuses on the variation in land surface temperature in the Gywnns Fall Watershed, Maryland. We found that land surface temperature is highly variable spatially, resulting in "hotspots" within the heat island. We further explore how this temperature variation relates to social factors on the scale of the census-based block group. We show that land surface temperature is statistically higher in block groups that are characterized by low income, high poverty, less education, more ethnic minorities, more elderly people and greater risk of crime. These variables were mapped to evaluate the spatial relationship of land surface temperatures to social factors. This spatially explicit approach facilitates identification of specific areas to prioritize for heat prevention and intervention efforts. We demonstrate, through an exercise, how incorporating data on land surface temperature and social factors into heat intervention strategies could contribute to efficient allocation of limited resources and services. The exercise also indicates where heat prevention efforts, such as tree-planting programs, are most needed to help reduce heat exposure and moderate the urban heat island effect.     

Exploring trends, sources, and causes of environmental funding: a study of Florida counties

Florida is one of the largest spenders on the environment in the U.S. Employing a database from Florida counties, this study examines two distinct environmental funding areas in government: funding to protect the environment, and funding to develop the environment. These two types of funding serve different purposes, support different activities and operations, and draw from different revenue sources. The results show that environmental funding in government is a response to the environmental pressure generated by economic activities and population growth. Counties with a higher level of manufacturing and farming activity spend more to protect the environment, while counties with higher population densities spend more to develop the environment. Moreover, counties with more funding for public safety and economic development activities spend less on the environment, indicating that environmental funding is influenced by the political processes in public budgeting in which diversified interests compete for resources. These results show that environmental spending in government is the result of combined forces arising from environmental pressure and budgetary politics.     

Multiscale Indicators of Land Degradation in the Patagonian Monte,Argentina

Depletion of vegetation by overgrazing in arid environments has long-lasting effects on the environmental quality over extended geographic areas. An adequate inspection of habitat changes requires scaled up procedures that would allow assessing end-points of environmental status in broad areas that would be based on processes occurring at the plant canopy level. Our purpose was to find indicators of land degradation–conservation status for use in land monitoring programs and in planning management practices that would be amenable to further up-scaling for use with remotely sensed imagery. In several sites of the Patagonian Monte differing in the impact of grazing management, we evaluated vegetation attributes at three spatial scales. At the population scale, we found that the severity of grazing impact was characterized by the reduction of the palatable grass, P. ligularis, outside and inside shrub canopies. At the vegetation patch scale, we found that land degradation by domestic herbivore impact was characterized by changes in attributes of patch shape (radius, height, internal canopy cover) and patch abundance. At the plant community scale, we found that the structure of the plant canopy as described using Fourier analysis of cover data changed after long-term grazing impact consistently with the modifications in plant population and patch structures. We present a conceptual multiscale scenario of structural changes triggered by domestic herbivore impact, and quantitative indicators of plant structure and processes useful to develop management strategies of the Patagonian-Monte that would conserve its natural habitats. The developed end-points are also amenable for use in land conservation assessment through remotely sensed imagery.     

Towards metrics of sustainable food systems: a review of the resilience and vulnerability literature

Food and nutrition security is a persisting global issue and, in addition, food systems are now facing a new set of intersecting economic, social and environmental challenges. Recurrent socio-economic and biophysical changes put the sustainability of food systems at risk. There is an urgent need to develop knowledge-based tools to assess and monitor food sustainability and to identify pathways for food security and resource conservation. The systemic nature of these interactions calls for multidimensional approaches and integrated assessments for decision-making to guide change. This paper reviews social–ecological system frameworks with the view to conceptualize the sustainability issues that affect the food systems. It is argued that the understanding of the food systems as social–ecological systems, and inputs from the theories of vulnerability and resilience in particular, can provide the concepts necessary to understand and model the complex system dynamics involved in the multiple interactions between human and natural components.     

A multicriteria approach for mapping risks of agricultural pollution for water resources: The Venice Lagoon watershed case study

A multicriteria analysis system was developed for producing risk maps of agricultural pollution due to alternative cultivation systems in the Watershed of the Lagoon of Venice (WLV) in Italy. Results of a field-scale simulation model for agricultural diffuse pollution were used to compile a matrix of environmental impacts, in terms of pollution indices. The most widespread combinations of typical environments (as defined by combinations of soil and climate variables) and alternative land uses (types of crops and cultivation systems) were described in the impact matrix. Land use in terms of crop distribution was based on census data. Two alternative cultivation systems were defined on the basis of the recent changes to the European Common Agricultural Policy: ordinary and eco-compatible. The effects of alternative scenarios were evaluated in terms of pollution risks for water resources. The evaluation procedure was built into the framework of a geographical information system to take into account the spatial features of pollution phenomena, vulnerability of the land and risk for water resources. The results demonstrated the great potential of eco-compatible practices for reducing the risks for surface and groundwater (−15 and −50%, respectively).