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1.
ABSTRACT: Past historical evidence indicates that droughts have had great impacts on human life. Drought (or scarcity of water) is assessed based on two key factors, namely, the estimated water demand, and the expected water supply. The formulation of these key factors for a region largely depends on the agro-climatic and economic conditions. Consideration of one such key factor is the relationship between the crop yield and water deficit in the assessment and prediction of agricultural droughts. The varying nature of this relationship from crop to crop adds to the complexity of agricultural drought analysis. To overcome this difficulty in analyzing agricultural droughts of a region, it is adequate to consider and place emphasis on a single crop (i.e., an index crop) grown homogeneously over the major area of the region. From one year to another year, the pattern of water requirement during the growing season of an index crop is rather stationary, and the water supply in arid and semi-arid area is mainly from seasonal random precipitation. In a region, grain yield of the index crop and, in turn, assessment of the severity of drought can reasonably be predicted as a function of the time of crop sowing and the distribution of rainfall, provided that temporal and spatial effects of other contributing factors (crop variety, soil fertility status, crop disease, pest control, cultivation practices etc.) on grain yield are considered to be uniformly distributed (i.e., stable). A predictive method of assessing agricultural droughts in an arid area of western India is presented. The major crop (Pearl Millet) of this region is grown from. July through September. The formulation of the proposed predictive method inherently implies that the grain yield of the main crop is a reliable indicator of agricultural drought. In the development of this predictive relationship (i.e., a regression type model) a number of potential yet simple variables affecting the grain yield in the region were investigated. The soil moisture index, although generally considered significant compared to the simple variables, has been found to account for insignificant variation in the grain yield. Results of our investigations suggest that it would be advisable to exclude the soil moisture index variable from the model. The proposed regression model can be used in the prediction of grain yield of the main crop several months ahead of crop harvesting operations and, in turn, the assessment of agricultural drought severity as mild, moderate, or severe. Such an assessment is expected to be helpful to planners for arranging appropriate measures to effectively combat agricultural drought situations.  相似文献   

2.
Drought is one of the most frequent natural disasters in Bangladesh which severely affect agro‐based economy and people's livelihood in almost every year. Characterization of droughts in a systematic way is therefore critical in order to take necessary actions toward drought mitigation and sustainable development. In this study, standardized precipitation index is used to understand the spatial distribution of meteorological droughts during various climatic seasons such as premonsoon, monsoon, and winter seasons as well as cropping seasons such as Pre‐Kharif (March‐May), Kharif (May‐October), and Rabi (December‐February). Rainfall data collected from 29 rainfall gauge stations located in different parts of the country were used for a period of 50 years (1961‐2010). The study reveals that the spatial characteristics of droughts vary widely according to season. Premonsoon droughts are more frequent in the northwest, monsoon droughts mainly occur in the west and northwest, winter droughts in the west, and the Rabi and Kharif droughts are more frequent in the north and northwest of Bangladesh. It is expected that the findings of the study will support drought monitoring and mitigation activities in Bangladesh.  相似文献   

3.
Agricultural drought differs from meteorological, hydrological, and socioeconomic drought, being closely related to soil water availability in the root zone, specifically for crop and crop growth stage. In previous studies, several soil moisture indices (e.g., the soil moisture index, soil water deficit index) based on soil water availability have been developed for agricultural drought monitoring. However, when developing these indices, it was generally assumed that soil water availability to crops was equal throughout the root zone, and the effects of root distribution and crop growth stage on soil water uptake were ignored. This article aims to incorporate root distribution into a soil moisture‐based index and to evaluate the performance of the improved soil moisture index for agricultural drought monitoring. The Huang‐Huai‐Hai Plain of China was used as the study area. Overall, soil moisture indices were significantly correlated with the crop moisture index (CMI), and the improved root‐weighted soil moisture index (RSMI) was more closely related to the CMI than averaged soil moisture indices. The RSMI correctly identified most of the observed drought events and performed well in the detection of drought levels. Furthermore, the RSMI had a better performance than averaged soil moisture indices when compared to crop yield. In conclusion, soil moisture indices could improve agricultural drought monitoring by incorporating root distribution.  相似文献   

4.
The impact of drought on water resources in arid and semiarid regions can be buffered by water supplies from different source regions. Simultaneous drought in all major source regions — or perfect drought — poses the most serious challenge to water management. We examine perfect droughts relevant to Southern California (SoCal) water resources with instrumental records and tree‐ring reconstructions for the Sacramento and Colorado Rivers, and SoCal. Perfect droughts have occurred five times since 1906, lasting two to three years, except for the most recent event, 2012–2015. This number and duration of perfect droughts is not unusual in the context of the past six centuries. The modern period stands out for the relatively even distribution of perfect droughts and lacks the clusters of perfect drought documented in prior centuries. In comparison, perfect droughts of the 12th Century were both longer (up to nine years) and more widespread. Perfect droughts of the 20th and 21st Centuries have occurred under different oceanic/atmospheric patterns, zonal and meridional flow, and ENSO or non‐ENSO conditions. Multidecadal coherence across the three regions exists, but it has varied over the past six centuries, resulting in irregular intervals of perfect drought. Although the causes of perfect droughts are not clear, given the long‐term natural variability along with projected changes in climate, it is reasonable to expect more frequent and longer perfect droughts in the future.  相似文献   

5.
Drought is a complex and highly destructive natural phenomenon that affects portions of the United States almost every year, and severe water deficiencies can often become catastrophic for agricultural production. Evapotranspiration (ET) by crops is an important component in the agricultural water budget; thus, it is advantageous to include ET in agricultural drought monitoring. The main objectives of this study were to (1) conduct a literature review of drought indices with a focus to identify a simple but simultaneously adequate drought index for monitoring agricultural drought in a semiarid region and (2) using the identified drought index method, develop and evaluate time series of that drought index for the Texas High Plains. Based on the literature review, the Standardized Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was found to satisfy identified constraints for assessing agricultural drought. However, the SPEI was revised by replacing reference ET with potential crop ET to better represent actual water demand. Data from the Texas High Plains Evapotranspiration network was used to calculate SPEIs for the major irrigated crops. Trends and magnitudes of crop‐specific, time‐series SPEIs followed crop water demand patterns for summer crops. Such an observation suggests that a modified SPEI is an appropriate index to monitor agricultural drought for summer crops, but it was found to not account for soil water stored during the summer fallow period for winter wheat.  相似文献   

6.
It is often necessary to find a simpler method in different climatic regions to calculate reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) since the application of the FAO‐56 Penman‐Monteith method is often restricted due to the unavailability of a comprehensive weather dataset. Seven ETo methods, namely the standard FAO‐56 Penman‐Monteith, the FAO‐24 Radiation, FAO‐24 Blaney Criddle, 1985 Hargreaves, Priestley‐Taylor, 1957 Makkink, and 1961 Turc, were applied to calculate monthly averages of daily ETo, total annual ETo, and daily ETo in an arid region at Aksu, China, in a semiarid region at Tongchuan, China, and in a humid region at Starkville, Mississippi, United States. Comparisons were made between the FAO‐56 method and the other six simple alternative methods, using the index of agreement D, modeling efficiency (EF), and root mean square error (RMSE). For the monthly averages of daily ETo, the values of D, EF, and RMSE ranged from 0.82 to 0.98, 0.55 to 0.98, and 0.23 to 1.00 mm/day, respectively. For the total annual ETo, the values of D, EF, and RMSE ranged from 0.21 to 0.91, ?43.08 to 0.82, and 24.80 to 234.08 mm/year, respectively. For the daily ETo, the values of D, EF, and RMSE ranged from 0.58 to 0.97, 0.57 to 0.97, and 0.30 to 1.06 mm/day, respectively. The results showed that the Priestly‐Taylor and 1985 Hargreaves methods worked best in the arid and semiarid regions, while the 1957 Makkink worked best in the humid region.  相似文献   

7.
The Indo‐Gangetic plain is characterized by intensive agriculture, largely by resource‐poor small and marginal farmers. Vast swathes of salt‐affected areas in the region provide both challenges and opportunities to bolster food security and sequester carbon after reclamation. Sustainable management of reclaimed soils via resource conservation strategies, such as residue retention, is key to the prosperity of the farmer, as well as increases the efficiency of expensive initiatives to further reclaim sodic land areas, which currently lay barren. After five years of experimentation on resource conservation strategies for rice‐wheat systems on partially reclaimed sodic soils of the Indo‐Gangetic region, we evaluated changes in different soil carbon pools and crop yield. Out of all resource conservation techniques which were tested, rice‐wheat crop residue addition (30% of total production) was most effective in increasing soil organic carbon (SOC). In rice, without crop residue addition (WCR), soils under zero‐tillage with transplanting, summer ploughing with transplanting and direct seeding with brown manuring showed a significant increase in SOC over the control (puddling in rice, conventional tillage in wheat). In these treatments relatively higher levels of carbon were attained in all aggregate fractions compared to the control. Soil aggregate sizes in meso (0.25‐2.0 mm) and macro (2‐8 mm) ranges increased, whereas micro (< 0.25 mm) fractions decreased in soils under zero‐till practices, both with and without crop residue addition. Direct seeding with brown manuring and zero tillage with transplanting also showed an increase of 135% and 95%, respectively, over the control in microbial biomass carbon, without crop residue incorporation. In zero tillage with transplanting treatment, both with and without crop residue showed significant increase in soil carbon sequestration potential. Though the changes in accrued soil carbon did not bring about significant differences in terms of grain yield, overall synthesis in terms of balance between yield and carbon sequestration indicated that summer ploughing with transplanting and zero tillage with transplanting sequestered significantly higher rates of carbon, yet yielded on par with conventional practices. These could be appropriate alternatives to immediately replace conventional tillage and planting practices for rice‐wheat cropping systems in the sodic soils of the Indo‐Gangetic region.  相似文献   

8.
Sadat Noori, S.M., A.M. Liaghat, and K. Ebrahimi, 2011. Prediction of Crop Production Using Drought Indices at Different Time Scales and Climatic Factors to Manage Drought Risk. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(1): 1‐9. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00586.x Abstract: Drought causes great damage to rainfed and irrigated farming. Therefore, prediction of crop production during the drought period is essential in order to manage drought risk. Thus, proceeding to agricultural drought risk management can be very useful. This study shows the results of early crop prediction using the combination of climate factors and drought indices at different time scales. The study region was Hamadan, a semiarid region in Iran. The methodology demonstrated here has allowed the prediction of production several months before harvest. Moreover, the predictive models constructed have explained 89% of the temporal variability of wheat production. This method could be very efficient for managing crop production. Moreover, having clear prediction, decision makers can plan better for overcoming drought impacts to reduce crop uncertainty for farmers in insurance companies.  相似文献   

9.
本文在简述了农业生产潜力定量测度方法的基础上,计算和分析了德阳市主要作物生产潜力。得出光能利用率低是造成该区作物产量不高的主要原因,各种作物中水稻生产力、生产潜力最大,不同种植制度中水旱轮作生产力、生产潜力最大  相似文献   

10.
Abstract: A series of drought simulations were performed for the California Central Valley using computer applications developed by the California Department of Water Resources and historical datasets representing a range of droughts from mild to severe for time periods lasting up to 60 years. Land use, agricultural cropping patterns, and water demand were held fixed at the 2003 level and water supply was decreased by amounts ranging between 25 and 50%, representing light to severe drought types. Impacts were examined for four hydrologic subbasins, the Sacramento Basin, the San Joaquin Basin, the Tulare Basin, and the Eastside Drainage. Results suggest the greatest impacts are in the San Joaquin and Tulare Basins, regions that are heavily irrigated and are presently overdrafted in most years. Regional surface water diversions decrease by as much as 70%. Stream‐to‐aquifer flows and aquifer storage declines were proportional to drought severity. Most significant was the decline in ground water head for the severe drought cases, where results suggest that under these scenarios the water table is unlikely to recover within the 30‐year model‐simulated future. However, the overall response to such droughts is not as severe as anticipated and the Sacramento Basin may act as ground‐water insurance to sustain California during extended dry periods.  相似文献   

11.
ABSTRACT: Predicting the likelihood of a drought markedly enhances the efficiency of reservoir operations. This study applies the kriging method and time series analysis to predict inflows to Shihmen Reservoir in northern Taiwan. A subsequent reservoir operation simulation is employed to determine the drought lead time (DLT), the time before the onset of a drought. A more efficient reservoir operational strategy can be established with the aid of DLT and the probability of successful drought prediction (P s). Simulation results of reservoir operation over a period of three decades demonstrate that, at one month DLT, the kriging approach achieves 0.86 of P s for moderate droughts and 0.94 of P s for severe droughts. The kriging approach generally outperformed the time series approach in terms of DLT, P s of drought prediction, and the number of correctly predicted drought events.  相似文献   

12.
Securing sustainable livelihood conditions and reducing the risk of outmigration in savanna ecosystems hosted in the tropical semiarid regions is of fundamental importance for the future of humanity in general. Although precipitation in tropical drylands, or savannas, is generally more significant than one might expect, these regions are subject to considerable rainfall variability which causes frequent periods of water deficiency. This paper addresses the twin problems of “drought and desertification” from a water perspective, focusing on the soil moisture (green water) and plant water uptake deficiencies. It makes a clear distinction between long‐term climate change, meteorological drought, and agricultural droughts and dry spells caused by rainfall variability and land degradation. It then formulates recommendations to better cope with and to build resilience to droughts and dry spells. Coping with desertification requires a new conceptual framework based on green‐blue water resources to identify hydrological opportunities in a sea of constraints. This paper proposes an integrated land/water approach to desertification where ecosystem management supports agricultural development to build social‐ecological resilience to droughts and dry spells. This approach is based on the premise that to combat desertification, focus should shift from reducing trends of land degradation in agricultural systems to water resource management in savannas and to landscape‐wide ecosystem management.  相似文献   

13.
Out study deals with the demand for water and alternative agricultural production and land use patterns under varying prices for both surface and ground water. We derive irrigation water demands for both the United States and regions of it. Not only is a different amount of water used at each set of water prices but also a different mix of crops, livestock, and production technology develops among the different regions. Under the highest set of prices used, more than fourteen million acres are converted into dryland farming. Total irrigated water use decreases by more than 25 million acre-feet. Irrigated crop yields are reduced and cropping patterns shift away from irrigation. Commodity shadow prices increase as much as 15 percent under high prices for both surface and ground water. A redistribution of farm income occurs between irrigated and dryland regions.  相似文献   

14.
Use of models to simulate crop production has become important in optimizing irrigation management in arid and semiarid regions. However, applicability and performance of these models differ across regions, due to differences in environmental and management factors. The AquaCrop model was used to simulate soil water content (SWC), evapotranspiration (ET), and yield for grain sorghum under different irrigation regimes and dryland conditions at two sites in Central and Southern High Plains. Prediction error (Pe), estimated as the difference between simulated and measured divided by measured, for SWC ranged from ?17% to 4% in fully irrigated, ?3% to ?10% in limited irrigated, and ?16% to 25% in dryland treatments. The Pe within ±4%, ?5%, and ?17% to 24% were attained for seasonal ET under fully irrigated, limited irrigated, and dryland conditions, respectively. Pe values for grain yield were within those previously reported and ranged from ?10% to 12%, ?12% to 7%, and 9% to 17% for fully irrigated, limited irrigated and dryland conditions, respectively. Overall performance of the AquaCrop model showed it could be used as an effective tool for evaluating the impacts of variable crop and irrigation managements on the production of grain sorghum in the study area. Finally, the application of the model in the study area revealed planting date has a significant impact on sorghum yield and irrigation requirements, but the impact of planting density was negligible. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.  相似文献   

15.
China is rich in energy plant resources. In this article, 64 plant species are identified as potential energy plants in China. The energy plant species include 38 oilseed crops, 5 starch-producing crops, 3 sugar-producing crops and 18 species for lignocellulosic biomass. The species were evaluated on the basis of their production capacity and their resistance to salt, drought, and/or low temperature stress. Ten plant species have high production and/or stress resistance and can be potentially developed as the candidate energy plants. Of these, four species could be the primary energy plants in China: Barbados nut (Jatropha curcas L.), Jerusalem artichoke (Helianthus tuberosus L.), sweet sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.) and Chinese silvergrass (Miscanthus sinensis Anderss.). We discuss the use of biotechnological techniques such as genome sequencing, molecular markers, and genetic transformation to improve energy plants. These techniques are being used to develop new cultivars and to analyze and manipulate genetic variation to improve attributes of energy plants in China.  相似文献   

16.
ABSTRACT: Nonirrigated crop yields and forage production are limited by low and variable precipitation in the southern Great Plains. Precipitation variation involves production risks, which can be reduced by considering probability of precipitation, precipitation retention, and soil erosion under various production systems. The objective of this study was to probabilistically quantify the impact of precipitation variations, land use, cropping, and tillage systems on precipitation retention and soil erosion. Five 1.6 ha watersheds that had 3 to 4 percent slopes, and similar silt loam soils were selected. One was kept in native grass, and the others were planted into winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) under different cropping and tillage systems. Daily runoff and soil erosion were measured at the outlet of each watershed. Precipitation distributions exhibited great seasonal and interannual variations, and precipitation retention distributions resembled those of precipitation. Cropping and tillage systems affected precipitation retention but much less than did precipitation variations. Available soil water storage, which was largely controlled by ET, played an important role in retaining precipitation. This indicates that cropping systems should be adjusted to precipitation patterns, if predictable, for better soil water use. Land use and cropping and tillage systems had a much greater impact on soil erosion than on precipitation retention. Soil erosion risks, which were proportional to the levels of tillage disturbance, were mainly caused by a few large storms in summer, when surface cover was low. This study explored a novel approach for evaluating production risks associated with insufficient precipitation retention and excessive soil erosion for certain crops or cropping systems under assumed precipitation conditions.  相似文献   

17.
Since its implementation in 2015, the Middle Route of the South‐to‐North Water Diversion Project (MR‐SNWDP) has transferred an average of 45 billion cubic meters of surface water per year from the Yangtze River in southern China to the Yellow River and Hai River Basin in northern China, but how that supply is able to cope with droughts under different scenarios has not been explored. In this study, using the water demand for 2020 as the guaranteed water target, a Water Evaluation and Planning system was used to simulate available water supplies in Beijing under different drought scenarios. In the case of a single‐year drought, without the MR‐SNWDP, Beijing’s water shortage ratio was 16.7%; with the MR‐SNWDP, this ratio reduced to 7.3%. In the case of a multi‐year drought, without the MR‐SNWDP, Beijing’s water shortage ratio was 25.3%; with the MR‐SNWDP, this ratio reduced to 7.4% and domestic water supply was improved. Our research suggests that to prepare for multi‐year drought in the Beijing area, the SNWDP supports increased supplies to the region that would mitigate drought effects. This study is, however, mostly focused on water supply provision to Beijing and does not comprehensively evaluate other potential impacts. Multiple additional avenues could be pursued that include replenishing groundwater, increasing reservoir storage, and water conservation methods. Further research is needed to explore the relative costs and benefits of these approaches.  相似文献   

18.
This study aimed to analyze the ecological, socio-economic and policy implications of land-use diversity in a traditional village landscape (900–1,000 m amsl.) in the Garhwal region of Indian Himalaya. The village landscape was differentiated into three major land-use types viz., forests, settled agriculture and shifting agriculture. Settled agriculture was further differentiated into four agroecosystem types viz., homegarden system (HGS), rainfed agroforestry system (RAS), rainfed crop system (RCS) and irrigated crop system (ICS), and shifting agriculture system (SAS) was differentiated into different stages of a 4-year long cropping phase and a 7-year long fallow phase, and forests into Community Forests (CF) and Reserve Forests (RF). HGS is the most productive agroecosystem, with soil organic carbon and nutrient concentrations significantly higher than all other forest/agricultural land-uses. Farmers capitalize upon crop diversity to cope with the risks and uncertainties of a monsoon climate and spatial variability in ecological factors influencing productivity. The SAS, a land-use adopted as a means of acquiring inheritable rights over larger land holdings provided in the policies during the 1890s, is less efficient in terms of land productivity than the traditional RAS and HGS but is maintained for its high labour productivity coupled with availability of high-quality fuelwood from fallow vegetation. Dominance of fodder trees in the RAS seems to derive from policies causing shortage of fodder available from forests. Cultural norms have favoured equity by allowing hiring of labour only from within the village community and income from non-timber forest products only to the weaker section of the society. Conversion of rainfed to irrigated cropping, a change facilitated by the government, improves agricultural productivity but also increases pressure on forests due to higher rates of farmyard manure input to the irrigated crops. Existing forest management systems are not effective in maintenance of a large basal area in forests together with high levels of species richness, soil fertility and resistance to invasive alien species Lantana camara. Farmers have to spend huge amount of labour and time in producing manure, managing livestock and other subsidiary farm activities. Interlinkages among agriculture, forests and rural economy suggest a need of replacing the present policies of treating agricultural development, forest conservation and economic development as independent sectors by an integrated sustainable development policy. The policy should promote technological and institutional innovations enabling parallel improvements in agricultural productivity and functions of forest ecosystems.  相似文献   

19.
The spread of invasive species is a complex ecological process that is affected by both the biology of the species and the spatial structure of a landscape. The rice water weevil (Lissorhoptrus oryzophilus Kuschel), a notorious crop pest found in many parts of the world, is one of the most devastating invasive species in China, and has caused enormous economic losses and ecological damage. Little is known, however, as to how habitat and landscape features affect the spatial spread of this pest. Thus, the main goal of this study was to investigate the relationship between the observed spread pattern of L. oryzophilus and landscape structural factors in Zhejiang Province, China between 1993 and 2001. We quantified the invasive spread of the weevil in terms of both the proportion of infected area and spread distance each year as well as landscape structure and connectivity of rice paddies with landscape metrics. Our results showed that the spread of L. oryzophilus took place primarily in the southwest-northeast direction along coastal areas at a speed of about 36 km per year. The composition and spatial arrangement of landscape elements were key determinants of this unique spread pattern. In particular, the connectivity of early rice paddies was crucial for the invasive spread while other factors such as meteorological and geographical conditions may also have been relevant. To control the spread of the pest, we propose four management measures: (1) to implement a landscape-level planning scheme of cropping systems to minimize habitat area and connectivity for the pest, (2) to reduce the source populations at a local scale using integrated control methods, (3) to monitor and report invasive spread in a timely manner, and (4) to strengthen the quarantine system. To be most effective, all four management measures need to be implemented together through an integrated, multi-scaled approach.  相似文献   

20.
Rising population and demands for rice as a staple food have created severe stress on freshwater availability for paddy cultivation. The literature suggests that conventional irrigation techniques are inadequate to overcome the water constraints arising from drought and extreme weather conditions. In the past few decades, there is an upsurge of scientific exploration of agricultural techniques in reinventing traditional methods of irrigation. Recently, alternate wet and dry irrigation (AWDI) method has shown great promise regarding profitable rice cultivation with limited water supply. The AWDI method is a trending water management system, which inundates rice fields with intermittent wet conditions followed by a dry period. This not only ensures adequate water supply but increases crop yield and water productivity index (WPI). The AWDI also helps in reducing parasitic mosquito population in the rice fields by minimizing the field flooding period and curtailing a major part of their life cycles. This review proposes a novel approach of emphasizing AWDI method as an important agricultural tool for supplementing rice fields with limited freshwater, increasing crop yield, and monitoring parasitic mosquito populations. The major objective of this study is to report the state-of-the-art scenario of AWDI method, critically analyze the research gaps related to conventional methods of irrigation and appreciate the futuristic long-term benefits of AWDI method. Literature survey was performed using search engines like Scopus, PubMed, Google Scholar, Research Gate, Science Direct, and Google Scholar. Comprehensive appraisal of resources (both offline and online) and critical evaluation of AWDI technicalities revealed that the AWDI reduced water usage by 45%, enhanced crop yield and improved WPI in paddy fields in the Asian sub-continent. The AWDI also curtailed the propagation of lethal mosquito species (Cx. tritaenorhynchus, Cx. vishnui, and Cx pseudovishnui) in rice fields. Therefore, the current study endorses AWDI as a promising substitute of conventional irrigation and a novel approach towards fulfilling water constraints that may be practiced anywhere in the world.  相似文献   

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