农业生产潜力指数评价方法的研究

本文提出了农业生产潜力指数评价的基本理论和方法，并利用这一评价方法对内江市主要家业作物的生产潜力的进行了评价分析。     

粮食产量预测理论、方法与应用Ⅱ.粮食生产潜力短期预测理论、模型及其应用

粮食生产潜力短期预测结果可以检验粮食中长期生产潜力预测的准确性和为国家提供制定粮食生产战略的科学依据。粮食生产潜力短期预测理论即“趋势-波动理论”,它建立在粮食或作物“现状生产潜力”概念和“天-人-地概念模型”基础上,预测模型为最佳移动步长条件下的多年单产移动平均趋势模型,实际预测时采用系统预测方法。11个研究案例预测的平均误差为0.77％,最大误差为2.99％,预测精度高。本研究初步结论是：粮食生产潜力短期预测理论和模型是科学和实用的。     

重庆市农业自然生产潜力研究：I.潜力计算方法讨论

一般认为,影响作物的主要生态因子包括光、温、水和养分,根据这四个因子构成的自然生产潜力模型为阶乘形式:y_1=f(S)·f(W)·f(T)·f(Q)提出这种模型的学者有罗马尼亚的Dumitru Teaic、我国的梁荣欣、孙惠南等。考虑光、温和水三个因子的所谓气候生产潜力的阶乘型公式较多,如陈明     

安宁河流域的光温水资源及生产潜力分析

从北至南依次连接冕宁县、西昌市、德昌县和米易县的安宁河流域,具有丰富的光温资源,平均气温14.1～19.4℃,≥10℃的积温4200～7300℃;年日照时数2044～2413h,年总辐射507～590KJ/cm~2;其中中下游区长夏无冬,热量资源为全省之冠。光温生产力达33903～56888kg/ha,增产潜力30228～52410kg/ha,增产潜力指数89.16%～92.13%。但因该流域干雨季节分明,干季降水不到10%,冬干春旱;雨季洪涝成灾,严重限制了光温生产潜力的发挥。自然生产潜力的光能利用率只占光合生产潜力的38%.实行水土综合改良,增加保灌面积和小春复种指数,以及立体开发,是挖掘生产潜力的有效措施。     

吉林省粮食单产时序变化及其因素分解CSSCI

为了揭示吉林省粮食单产变化的时序特征及其决定因素,利用1998—2013年吉林省的相关数据,基于改进的拉氏因素分解方法构建了粮食单产变化的因素分解模型,从作物和区域两个角度对吉林省粮食单产变化进行了定量分解。结果表明,研究期吉林省粮食单产发生明显波动,并呈下降趋势,但单产的波动性有所降低;从单产变化的作物贡献看,玉米的单产变化效应最大,对全省单产变化的平均贡献率达到123.61%;从单产变化的区域贡献看,长春、松原、四平发挥了主导作用,其中长春市对全省粮食单产变化的贡献最大;从生产力效应和结构效应的综合作用看,生产力效应是粮食单产变化的决定性因素,研究期内的平均贡献率达到99.76%,而粮食结构效应贡献很小,平均贡献率只有0.24%。     

吉林省粮食单产时序变化及其因素分解

为了揭示吉林省粮食单产变化的时序特征及其决定因素,利用1998—2013年吉林省的相关数据,基于改进的拉氏因素分解方法构建了粮食单产变化的因素分解模型,从作物和区域两个角度对吉林省粮食单产变化进行了定量分解。结果表明,研究期吉林省粮食单产发生明显波动,并呈下降趋势,但单产的波动性有所降低;从单产变化的作物贡献看,玉米的单产变化效应最大,对全省单产变化的平均贡献率达到123.61%;从单产变化的区域贡献看,长春、松原、四平发挥了主导作用,其中长春市对全省粮食单产变化的贡献最大;从生产力效应和结构效应的综合作用看,生产力效应是粮食单产变化的决定性因素,研究期内的平均贡献率达到99.76%,而粮食结构效应贡献很小,平均贡献率只有0.24%。     

广安县耕地资源适宜性分析与评价

耕地资源适宜性是耕地各性状对农作物生理需求的满足程度,决定着耕地质量高低和生产潜力的大小。耕地资源适宜性的定量分析,是农业区划和土地资源管理的一项基础工作,有利于因地制宜安排作物布局和调整作物种植结构,有利于科学地利用地力、提高土地产出率。广安县人均耕地仅0.76亩,人地矛盾突出,耕地资源有限,分析耕地对作物的适宜性十分必要。     

耕地质量指标体系的构建

根据土地质量的概念及其影响因素，构建了耕地质量指标体系。认为耕地质量的影响因素包括自然、社会和经济因素，而PSR（压力——状态——响应）框架则是构建耕地质量指标体系的最佳思路。在此基础上提出具体评价指标，其中生态功能指标体系包括土壤质量、气候质量、生物多样性质量和景观生态质量，生产功能指标体系（即耕地生产力）则通过耕地生产潜力、耕地基础地力和耕地现实生产力进行评价。     

中国南方红黄壤旱地多熟制效益的系统分析

我国南方有1.58亿亩的红黄壤旱地,目前生产力水平很低。为了开发红黄壤旱地,挖掘其生产潜力,我们于1986～1989年在江西南昌进行了多熟制的定位试验。结果表明,红黄壤旱地发展多熟制可以大幅度提高土地生产力,培肥地力,达到生态效益、经济效益和社会效益同步增长。同时,为了全面、合理地评价耕作制度,文章采用了综合评判的方法,对本试验的6个多熟制的效益进行了系统分析,对其优劣作了较客观的评价,但这一分析方法还有待进一步完善。     

华北农牧交错带气候生产力时空变化特征——以大同市为例

以华北农牧交错带为切入点,选取晋北长城沿线大同市8个气象站点,利用线性趋势分析、5年滑动、M-K检验以及Thormthwaite模型,分析了近38年来大同市气候变化及其气候生产力的演变特征.结果表明:①近38年大同市气温呈现显著增加趋势,且在1994年发生突变.②降水量呈现不显著的减少趋势.③气候生产力呈现缓慢增加趋势,出现南部高于北部,东西方向上呈现由中心向四周递增.④暖湿气候的气候生产力呈现正距平,最适合作物生长;冷干气候的气候生产力呈现负距平,最不适合作物生长.现阶段气候暖干化趋势显著,因此研究气候变化对气候生产力有重要意义.     

Management of Lignite Fly Ash for Improving Soil Fertility and Crop Productivity

Lignite fly ash (LFA), being alkaline and endowed with excellent pozzolanic properties, a silt loam texture, and plant nutrients, has the potential to improve soil quality and productivity. Long-term field trials with groundnut, maize, and sun hemp were carried out to study the effect of LFA on growth and yield. Before crop I was sown, LFA was applied at various doses with and without press mud (an organic waste from the sugar industry, used as an amendment and source of nutrients). LFA with and without press mud was also applied before crops III and V were cultivated. Chemical fertilizer, along with gypsum, humic acid, and biofertilizer, was applied in all treatments, including the control. With one-time and repeat applications of LFA (with and without press mud), yield increased significantly (7.0–89.0%) in relation to the control crop. The press mud enhanced the yield (3.0–15.0%) with different LFA applications. The highest yield LFA dose was 200 t/ha for one-time and repeat applications, the maximum yield being with crop III (combination treatment). One-time and repeat application of LFA (alone and in combination with press mud) improved soil quality and the nutrient content of the produce. The highest dose of LFA (200 t/ha) with and without press mud showed the best residual effects (eco-friendly increases in the yield of succeeding crops). Some increase in trace- and heavy-metal contents and in the level of γ-emitters in soil and crop produce, but well within permissible limits, was observed. Thus, LFA can be used on a large scale to boost soil fertility and productivity with no adverse effects on the soil or crops, which may solve the problem of bulk disposal of fly ash in an eco-friendly manner.     

Agricultural Adaptation to Drought for Different Cropping Systems in Southern China under Climate Change

This study investigates agricultural adaptation to drought for different cropping systems in southern China. The study area was divided into three regions: South China (SC), South of the Yangtze River (SYR), and Southwest China (SWC). An index of agricultural adaptation to drought (D) was established. Our findings indicated that the average total crop water demand varied greatly among the regions from 1961 to 2010 in southern China. The maximum value was found in the SC region, followed by the SYR and SWC regions. The effects of droughts on different crops were noticeable. Frequent droughts were recorded in late rice than in early rice in the SC and SYR regions. Droughts in the SWC region mainly affected winter wheat. Moreover, the effects of droughts on crops varied during different growth stages. More frequent and serious droughts occurred during the crop critical flowering stage. Particularly, the frequency of moderate and severe droughts for late rice in the SYR region was 62% during the critical flowering stage. For the SC and SYR regions, the D values of early rice (0.29 and 0.29) were lower than that of late rice (0.31 and 0.33), respectively. For the SWC region, the D values of winter wheat and rice were both low, with averages of 0.16 and 0.29, respectively. Our study provides interesting insights for improving the drought defense abilities for different cropping systems by changing crop planting proportion on a regional scale in China.     

The economic effects of stratospheric ozone depletion on U.S. agriculture: a preliminary assessment

The adverse effects of stratospheric ozone depletion on human health and welfare is a major environmental concern. One potential welfare effect is reduction in plant productivity, including agricultural crops, due to increased UV-B radiation and tropospheric ozone formation. This paper evaluates the economic effects of potential changes in crop yields due to hypothetical depletions in stratospheric ozone over regions of the U.S.A. Results suggest that increases in tropospheric ozone due to a 15 per cent stratospheric ozone depletion may cause economic losses of around 0·9 billion dollars. Combined effects of both tropospheric ozone and UV-B radiation range from 1·3 to 2·5 billion dollars. These estimates are preliminary, given the high degree of uncertainty in key plant science and aerometric data.     

Management of mine spoil for crop productivity with lignite fly ash and biological amendments

Long-term field trials using lignite fly ash (LFA) were carried out in rice crops during the period 1996-2000 at Mine I, Neyveli Lignite Corporation, Tamil Nadu. LFA, being alkaline and endowed with an excellent pozzolanic nature, silt loam texture, and plant nutrients, has the potential to improve the texture, fertility, and crop productivity of mine spoil. The rice crops were the first, third, fifth, and sixth crops in rotation. The other crops, such as green gram (second) and sun hemp (fourth), were grown as green manure. For experimental trials, LFA was applied at various dosages (0, 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 200 t/ha), with and without press mud (10 t/ha), before cultivation of the first crop. Repeat applications of LFA were made at the same dosages in treatments of up to 50 t/ha (with and without press mud) before cultivation of the third and fifth crops. Press mud, a lightweight organic waste product from the sugar industry, was used as an organic amendment and source of plant nutrients. Also, a recommended dosage of chemical fertilizer, along with gypsum, humic acid, and biofertilizer as supplementing agents, was applied in all the treatments, including control. With one-time and repeat applications of LFA, from 5 to 20 t/ha (with and without press mud), the crop yield (grain and straw) increased significantly (p < 0.05), in the range from 3.0 to 42.0% over the corresponding control. The maximum yield was obtained with repeat applications of 20 t/ha of LFA with press mud in the third crop. The press mud enhanced the yield in the range of 1.5-10.2% with various dosages of LFA. The optimum dosage of LFA was 20 t/ha for both one-time and repeat applications. Repeat applications of LFA at lower dosages of up to 20 t/ha were more effective in increasing the yield than the corresponding one-time applications of up to 20 t/ha and repeat applications at 50 t/ha. One-time and repeat applications of LFA of up to 20 t/ha (with and without press mud), apart from increasing the yield, evinced improvement in the texture and fertility of mine spoil and the nutrient content of crop produce. Furthermore, some increase in the content of trace and heavy metals and the level of gamma-emitters in the mine spoil and crop produce was observed, but well within the permissible limits. The residual effect of LFA on succeeding crops was also encouraging in terms of eco-friendliness. Beyond 20 t/ha of LFA, the crop yield decreased significantly (p < 0.05), as a result of the formation of hardpan in the mine spoil and possibly the higher concentration of soluble salts in the LFA. However, the adverse effects of soluble salts were annulled progressively during the cultivation of succeeding crops. A plausible mechanism for the improved fertility of mine spoil and the carryover or uptake of toxic trace and heavy metals and gamma-emitters in mine spoil and crop produce is also discussed.     

Crop biodiversity,productivity and production risk: Panel data micro‐evidence from Ethiopia

This paper uses data from the Central Highlands of Ethiopia to assess the productivity and production risk impacts of crop diversification. Using count index as a measure of crop biodiversity, results show that increasing crop biodiversity contributes positively to farm level productivity. In addition, the findings suggest that the level of production risk significantly responds to the level of diversity, with the effect highly conditional on the skewness. The major contribution of the paper is that, unlike previous similar studies that tended to focus on intra‐crop diversity, it incorporates the mutual interdependencies across crops within a farm by focusing on inter‐crop diversity. Hence the study adds to the growing empirical literature, particularly in Africa, that tests empirical relationships between productivity, risk and crop diversity. An important policy implication for a diversity rich country such as Ethiopia is that agro‐biodiversity can be used to improve agricultural productivity while promoting in situ conservation.     

POTENTIAL WATER USE AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION PATTERNS UNDER ALTERNATIVE WATER PRICES1

Out study deals with the demand for water and alternative agricultural production and land use patterns under varying prices for both surface and ground water. We derive irrigation water demands for both the United States and regions of it. Not only is a different amount of water used at each set of water prices but also a different mix of crops, livestock, and production technology develops among the different regions. Under the highest set of prices used, more than fourteen million acres are converted into dryland farming. Total irrigated water use decreases by more than 25 million acre-feet. Irrigated crop yields are reduced and cropping patterns shift away from irrigation. Commodity shadow prices increase as much as 15 percent under high prices for both surface and ground water. A redistribution of farm income occurs between irrigated and dryland regions.     

Land use changes and net primary production in the Georgia,USA, landscape: 1935–1982

Land use since 1935 was quantified for Georgia, USA, and for a sample of 20 counties from the major physiographic regions within the state. Statistical data on crop production, pasture productivity, and forest growth were used to estimate net primary production. Appropriate harvest indices (ratio of crop yield to total plant production) were used to correct crop yield data for different decades. Net primary production (NPP) of the Georgia landscape increased from 2.5 to 6.4 tonnes/ha from 1935 to 1982, but varied considerably among land uses and physiographic regions. NPP in the piedmont and mountains reached a plateau between 1960 and 1982, but the upper and lower coastal plains showed a continued linear increase in NPP. In all regions, NPP rose most between 1960 and 1982, coinciding with increases in inputs such as fertilizer and irrigation. Natural ecosystem NPP for Georgia is approximately 16–18 tonnes/ha, and the estimated actual NPP is thus considerably less than the potential. Spatial and temporal patterns of NPP may be a useful basis for evaluating the biological performance of a landscape.     

MACROPHYTE STANDING CROP AND PRIMARY PRODUCTWITY IN SOME FLORIDA SPRING-RUNS1

ABSTRACT: A survey of 31 Florida spring-runs was conducted to estimate their submerged macrophyte standing crop and primary productivity. The standing crops of submerged vegetation were not significantly (p > 0.05) correlated to either total nitrogen (r = 0) or total phosphorus (r =?0.20) concentrations, but standing crops were significantly (p < 0.01) correlated to the percentage of the spring-run's water surface shaded by marginal vegetation (r =?0.76). Maximum daily rates of primary productivity were positively correlated with average submerged macrophyte standing crops (r = 0.81; p < 0.001) and inversely correlated with the degree of shading by marginal vegetation (r =? 0.43; p < 0.05).     

Impact of environmental production conditions on productivity and efficiency: a case study of wheat farmers in Bangladesh

Environmental conditions significantly affect production, but are often ignored in studies analysing productivity and efficiency leading to biased results. In this study, we examine the influence of selected environmental factors on productivity and efficiency in wheat farming in Bangladesh. Results reveal that environmental production conditions significantly affect the parameters of the production function and technical efficiency, as well as correlates of inefficiency. Controlling for environmental production conditions improves technical efficiency by 4 points (p<0.01) from 86% to 90%. Large farms are more efficient relative to small and medium sized farms (p<0.01 and 0.05), with no variation among regions. Policy implications include soil fertility improvement through soil conservation and crop rotation, improvement in managerial practices through extension services and adoption of modern technologies, promotion of education, strengthening the research-extension link, and development of new varieties that have higher yield potential and are also suitable for marginal areas.     

浙江省主要优势农产品产地土壤-农作物镉含量空间分布及相关性研究

针对目前土壤-农作物镉污染问题,以浙江省40个县（市、区）主要优势农产品产区为研究对象,在粮食、油菜、蔬菜种植地以及茶园和果园土壤中共采集898个单元土壤样品及相对应的五大类农作物,并对其镉含量进行分析评价;同时采用富集系数比较不同农作物对土壤重金属镉的吸收差异。结果表明,研究区产地土壤和农作物的镉含量存在一定程度超标,土壤超标率为10.69%,农作物超标率为4.57%。不同农作物对土壤镉的富集系数差异较大,变化范围在0.002～0.257之间。土壤-农作物镉含量的相关性并不显著。