城市屋面雨水利用潜力分析——以南京市河西地区某小区为例

城市雨水利用是解决城市水资源短缺和减轻内涝灾害的手段之一。以南京市某小区为例，在分析南京市降雨特征的基础上，利用1〖DK〗∶500地形图资料计算了不同降雨保证率条件下该小区屋面雨水可收集量，分析了雨水收集利用在减轻城市内涝方面的作用，并提出了设置地面蓄水池的4条原则，在此基础上调查分析了该小区设置地面蓄水池的可行性。结果表明:在降雨保证率为50%时，通过屋面年可收集利用的雨量为114 272 1 m3；在日降雨量为500和955 mm（南京市多年平均年最大日降雨量）时，屋面雨水利用可减少214%和112%的地表径流；小区内可设置蓄水池的建筑屋面面积占总屋面面积的55%，其中住宅和其他类建筑中可设置蓄水池的建筑屋面面积比例占77%     

基于MODIS叶面积指数的大渡河流域作物生态需水研究

利用大渡河流域30年的气象资料，采用FAO最新修订的Penman Monteith方程计算流域参考作物腾发量。同时获取大渡河流域2007年内45期MODIS LAI数据，根据叶面积指数与作物系数的经验关系得到作物系数2007年年内的变化情况，利用GIS中的Zonalmean函数对大渡河流域平均作物生态需水量年内变化进行估算。在根据年干燥度进行干湿区划的基础上，对作物生态需水来源进行分析。结果表明：大渡河流域2007年内生态需水总量为6188 mm，月平均值为516 mm。其中作物生态需水量年内变化过程为夏季最高，占全年总需水量的357%，春季、秋季、冬季生态需水量逐渐减少分别占全年总量的304%、201%和138%。在雨季，降水完全可以满足流域生态需水量，降水是这一时期生态需水的主要来源。在旱季，半干旱区的生态需水来源受区域干燥度的影响较大，越干燥的地区降水占作物生态需水百分比就越高；半湿润区作物生态需水来源仍以降水为主，但降水占作物生态需水百分比除了受区域干燥度影响之外，可能还受到其它因素如：陡坡耕地占耕地总面积的比例的影响。     

Current and future suitability areas of kermes oak (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Quercus coccifera</Emphasis> L.) in the Levant under climate change

Quercus coccifera L. (Kermes oak) is an evergreen oak, typical of the maquis in the eastern and south-eastern part of the Mediterranean. It occurs almost continuously along the Syrian–Lebanese coast up to 1500 m and is more scattered inland, up to the arid southernmost area of Petra in Jordan. Human impact and global warming both strongly affect the natural distribution of the species, thus leading to a widespread forest fragmentation in the whole region. In this study, we investigate the current bioclimatic range of Kermes oak and forecast which areas are potentially most suitable over the course of the twenty-first century. Ecological niche modelling was used to retrieve the environmental envelope of the species according to 23 topographic and climate variables. Five algorithms and three general circulation models were applied to provide the potential distribution of Kermes oak at the present time and project it to the future. Results showed a current suitability area in the Middle East extending from NW of Syria, rather continuously along the Lebanese coasts and inland up to the Mediterranean western slopes of Palestine and the Golan area (Israel), encompassing the Jordan Valley towards Dana and Wadi Rum (Jordan), with an isolated patch in Jabal Al-Arab (South Syria). Future scenarios depict a significant fragmentation and restriction of Kermes oak range, especially in the north of Syria and Golan, with a general shifting in altitude. This information may be useful in helping the foresters to cope with the challenge of climate changes by identifying the most suitable areas climatically effective for successful ecosystem restoration and management, including reforestation programmes.     

云南不同量级降雨下的降雨侵蚀力特征分析

为研究云南省及5个子区域年降雨侵蚀力和各量级降雨侵蚀力的时空变化特征,基于云南120个站点近43a逐日降水资料,利用Man-Kendall趋势检验、Morlet连续复小波变换分析等方法进行系统分析。结果表明:各区域大雨侵蚀力在年降雨侵蚀力中起主导作用;年内各月降雨侵蚀力滇西北基本以大雨侵蚀力为主,其余区域干季以中雨侵蚀力为主,雨季以大雨侵蚀力为主;各量级降雨侵蚀力表现出降雨量级越大,季节性越强,集中程度越高的特征;各区域中雨侵蚀力相对变化呈减少趋势,其余量级降雨侵蚀力变化趋势以减居多;暴雨侵蚀力相对变化程度最强,大雨和中雨侵蚀力相对较缓;滇西北年降雨侵蚀力、大雨和中雨侵蚀力以9a左右时间尺度为主震荡周期,其余区域主震荡周期多为18~21a左右,暴雨侵蚀力主震荡周期在各区域存在一定差异。     

漫湾电站库区降雨侵蚀力时空变化

漫湾水电站是澜沧江水能梯级开发的第一个干流大型水电站，加强库区水土流失治理与监督监测尤为必要，而降雨侵蚀力的时空分布规律研究则是实现区域土壤侵蚀定量监测预报的重要基础。根据有关降雨侵蚀力的计算方法，利用漫湾电站库区4个测站1980～2000年的逐月平均降雨资料，估算了其降雨侵蚀力R值的时空分布规律及其变化特征。结果表明：漫湾电站库区多年平均降雨侵蚀力在1 9336～3 9727 MJ·mm/hm2·h；R值的年内变化显著，且较大值集中分布在雨季的5月～10月，平均R值占全年的867%，尤其6～8月连续3个月的降雨侵蚀力平均占全年侵蚀力的一半以上；R值的年际变化显示20世纪90年代漫湾电站库区降雨侵蚀力比80年代平均增加2835 MJ·mm/hm2·h；R值的空间分布上以凤庆站点的年降雨侵蚀力最大；南涧站点的年降雨侵蚀力最小，但是其年际波动幅度较大。全面地分析了漫湾电站库区降雨侵蚀力R值的时空变化特征，为该地区有效防止与监测水土流失情况、更好地安置水电站工程移民提供参考。     

Treatment of olive mill effluents Part I. Organic matter degradation by chemical and biological processes--an overview

Olive mill effluents constitute a serious environmental problem in the Mediterranean Sea region due to the unique features associated with this type of agro-waste (i.e. seasonal and localized production, high and diverse organic load, low flow rates). Therefore, it is not surprising that research efforts have been directed towards the development of efficient treatment technologies including various physico-chemical and biological processes. This work reviews recent advances regarding olive mill effluent treatment with emphasis given on biological and chemical degradation processes.     

Watershed development in India. 1. Biophysical and societal impacts

This paper recommends a revision of watershed development policy in India in relation to the planning of development interventions involving agricultural intensification and rainwater harvesting following biophysical and societal impact studies carried out on two watershed development projects in Karnataka. A need for changes in policy has arisen in response to progressive catchments closure at the basin level and declining volumes of water flowing into village level reservoirs (known locally as tanks). Flow reductions have occurred largely as a result of increased agricultural intensification over the past 10–15 years. Field levelling, field bund construction, soil water conservation measures, farm ponds, the increase in areas under horticulture and forestry and the increased abstraction and use of groundwater for irrigation are all contributing factors to reduced flows. Planning methodologies and approaches, which may have been appropriate 20 years ago for planning water harvesting within watershed development projects, are no longer appropriate today. New planning approaches are required which (1) take account of these changed flow conditions and (2) are also able to take account of externalities, which occur when actions of some affect the livelihoods of others who have no control or influence over such activities and which (3) contribute to the maintenance of agreed minimum downstream flows for environmental and other purposes.

Dynamics and determinants of land change in India: integrating satellite data with village socioeconomics

We examine the dynamics and spatial determinants of land change in India by integrating decadal land cover maps (1985–1995–2005) from a wall-to-wall analysis of Landsat images with spatiotemporal socioeconomic database for ~630,000 villages in India. We reinforce our results through collective evidence from synthesis of 102 case studies that incorporate field knowledge of the causes of land change in India. We focus on cropland–fallow land conversions, and forest area changes (excludes non-forest tree categories including commercial plantations). We show that cropland to fallow conversions are prominently associated with lack of irrigation and capital, male agricultural labor shortage, and fragmentation of land holdings. We find gross forest loss is substantial and increased from ~23,810 km² (1985–1995) to ~25,770 km² (1995–2005). The gross forest gain also increased from ~6000 km² (1985–1995) to ~7440 km² (1995–2005). Overall, India experienced a net decline in forest by ~18,000 km² (gross loss–gross gain) consistently during both decades. We show that the major source of forest loss was cropland expansion in areas of low cropland productivity (due to soil degradation and lack of irrigation), followed by industrial development and mining/quarrying activities, and excessive economic dependence of villages on forest resources.

     

Spatiotemporal variation in rainfall erosivity on the Chinese Loess Plateau during the period 1956–2008

Water resources and soil erosion are the most important environmental concerns on the Chinese Loess Plateau, where soil erosion and sediment yield are closely related to rainfall erosivity. Daily rainfall data from 60 meteorological stations were used to investigate the spatiotemporal variations in annual rainfall, annual erosive rainfall and annual rainfall erosivity on the Chinese Loess Plateau during the period 1956–2008. The annual rainfall, erosive rainfall and rainfall erosivity decreased over the past five decades, as determined by the Mann–Kendall test. A comparison of the annual averaged rainfall, erosive rainfall and rainfall erosivity from 1980 to 2008 with that from 1956 to 1979 revealed a remarkable spatial difference in the rainfall trends on the Loess Plateau. Regions of the plateau with major decreases in rainfall were primarily in the Hekouzhen-Longmen section of the middle Yellow River, especially in the Wuding River basin, the Fenhe basin and the northern-central Shanxi province, where the annual rainfall and erosive rainfall decreased by more than 10% and the annual rainfall erosivity decreased by more than 15%. The rainfall erosivity also decreased more than the annual rainfall. Because the annual rainfall has decreased significantly on the Chinese Loess Plateau over the past 50 years, it is important to better understand the ecological and hydrological processes affected by this climate change.     

Effects of radionuclide and rainfall characteristics on field loss parameters of grass

The decrease of foliar activity in vegetation after its initial contamination by foliar deposition is termed “field loss” (Chamberlain, 1970). This work investigated further laboratory data concerning field loss of ¹³⁴Cs, ¹³⁷Cs, ⁸⁵Sr, ¹³³Ba and ^123mTe deposited on grassland (Madoz-Escande et al., 2005). Treatments consisted in rainfall scenarios cumulating 14 mm per week, combining two levels of intensity (8 or 30 mm/h) and two levels of frequency/precocity (late once or early twice-a-week). The time course of field loss was monitored in the edible tissues which were sampled by mowing between the rainfalls. Data were analyzed with an offset exponential loss model which is applicable to chronic contamination and is consistent with approaches adopted in radiological assessment models. Its parameters were estimated by the maximum-likelihood method, and their accuracy was determined by nonparametric boostrap. Radionuclide and rainfall conditions significantly affected the estimated rate (λ₁) and extent (A₁) of field loss. Field loss rate (λ₁) and nonentrainable fraction (1 − A₁) varied by a factor 1.5–3. Cesium was very mobile but persistent. On the contrary Tellerium was found less labile, but eventually was almost completely eliminated. Strontium and Barium had intermediate behaviors. Field loss was more efficient for moderate late once-a-week rainfalls (8 mm/h). Higher rainfall intensity reduced more the radionuclides losses than higher rainfall frequency/precocity. This paper reports statistically relevant effects that should be considered for more realistic assessments.     

Climate variability and changes in the major cities of Bangladesh: observations,possible impacts and adaptation

High population density, inadequate infrastructure and low adaptive capacity have made the urban population of Bangladesh highly vulnerable to climate change. Trends in climate and climate-related extreme events in five major cities have been analyzed in this paper to decipher the variability and ongoing changes in urban Bangladesh. An analysis of 55 years (1958–2012) of daily rainfall and temperature data using nonparametric statistical methods shows a significant increase in annual and seasonal mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures in all five cities. A significant increase in climate-related extreme events, such as heavy rainfall events (>20 mm), hot days (>32 °C) and hot nights (>25 °C), is also observed. Climate model results suggest that these trends will continue through the twenty-first century. Vulnerability of urban livelihoods and physical structures to climate change is estimated by considering certainty and timing of impacts. It has been predicted that public health and urban infrastructures, viz. water and power supply, would be the imminent affected sectors in the urban areas of Bangladesh. Adaptation measures that can be adopted to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change are also discussed.     

Evaluating the cost of flood damage based on changes in extreme rainfall in Japan

We estimated the cost of flood damage using numerical simulations based on digital map data and the flood control economy investigation manual submitted by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transportation, and Tourism in Japan. The simulation was carried out using a flood model incorporating representative precipitation data for all of Japan. The economic predictions, which estimate flood damage caused by extreme rainfall for the return periods of 5, 10, 30 50, and 100 years, are as follows: (1) the cost of flood damage increases nearly linearly with increases in extreme precipitation; (2) assuming that flood protection is completed for a 50-year return period of extreme rainfall, the benefit of flood protection for a 100-year return period of rainfall is estimated to be 210 billion USD; (3) the average annual expected damage cost for flooding is predicted to be approximately 10 billion USD per year, based on the probability of precipitation for a return period of 100 years and assuming that flood control infrastructures will be completed within the 50-year return period and will be able to protect from flooding with a 50-year return period; (4) urban and rural areas are predicted to suffer high and low costs of damage, respectively. These findings will help to derive measures to enhance flood protection resulting from climate change.     

秦巴山区降雨侵蚀力时空变化特征

降雨侵蚀力时空变化特征的研究对区域土壤侵蚀风险评估及水土保持规划具有重要的意义。利用秦巴山区及周边地区共63个气象站1961~2016年的逐日降雨量数据计算各站的降雨侵蚀力，借助Kriging空间插值法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、Pettitt突变检验等方法分析了秦巴山区降雨侵蚀力的时空变化特征。结果表明：秦巴山区年均降雨侵蚀力为3 696 MJ·mm/(hm²·h·a)，年内变化呈单峰型，7月最大，占全年的26.6%；四季中，夏季最大，冬季最小。代际间，20世纪80年代的降雨侵蚀力最大，90年代最小。年际间，年降雨侵蚀力存在明显的阶段性，但未表现出显著的趋势性和突变性特征。秦巴山区多年平均降雨侵蚀力呈南高北低的分布格局，不同地区年均降雨侵蚀力变化于787~8 858 MJ·mm/(hm²·h·a)之间；整体而言，年降雨侵蚀力随纬度增加而减小，随海拔升高而减小。     

中国南方地区近60 a来降雨量与降雨侵蚀力时空变化研究

基于南方地区9个省份41个气象站点1956~2015年共60 a逐日降雨量资料,采用线性回归、Kriging插值等方法分析了南方地区降雨量和降雨侵蚀力的时空变化特征。结果表明:南方地区降雨以侵蚀性降雨为主,且比较集中,区域强降雨事件出现的频次在增加。南方地区年均降雨侵蚀力变化范围在3 477.30~24 878.65 MJ·mm/(hm~2·h·a)之间,平均值为9 919.93 MJ·mm/(hm~2·h·a),总体由南往北逐渐减少的分布规律。在季节分布上降雨侵蚀力主要集中在夏季。60 a来南方大部分地区年降雨侵蚀力均呈上升趋势,其中海南、浙江、江西3省上升趋势较为明显,说明这些地区面临较大的土壤侵蚀潜在压力。     

Mid-21st century climate and weather extremes in Cyprus as projected by six regional climate models

We present climate change projections and apply indices of weather extremes for the Mediterranean island Cyprus using data from regional climate model (RCM) simulations driven by the IPCC A1B scenario within the ENSEMBLES project. Daily time-series of temperature and precipitation were used from six RCMs for a reference period 1976–2000 and for 2026–2050 (‘future‘) for representative locations, applying a performance selection among neighboring model grid-boxes. The annual average temperatures of the model ensemble have a ±1.5°C bias from the observations (negative for maximum and positive for minimum temperature), and the models underestimate annual precipitation totals by 4–17%. The climatological annual cycles for the observations fall within the 1σ range of the 6-model average, highlighting the strength of using multi-model output. We obtain reasonable agreement between models and observations for the temperature-related indices of extremes for the recent past, while the comparison is less good for the precipitation-related extremes. For the future, the RCM ensemble shows significant warming of 1°C in winter to 2°C in the summer for both maximum and minimum temperatures. Rainfall is projected to decrease by 2–8%, although this is not statistically significant. Our results indicate the shift of the mean climate to a warmer state, with a relatively strong increase in the warm extremes. The precipitation frequency is projected to decrease at the inland Nicosia and at the coastal Limassol, while the mountainous Saittas could experience more frequent 5–15 mm/day rainfall. In future, very hot days are expected to increase by more than 2 weeks/year and tropical nights by 1 month/year. The annual number of consecutive dry days shows a statistically significant increase (of 9 days) in Limassol. These projected changes of the Cyprus climate may adversely affect ecosystems and the economy of the island and emphasize the need for adaptation strategies.     

Model projected heat extremes and air pollution in the eastern Mediterranean and Middle East in the twenty-first century

The eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, a region with diverse socioeconomic and cultural identities, is exposed to strong climatic gradients between its temperate north and arid south. Model projections of the twenty-first century indicate increasing hot weather extremes and decreasing rainfall. We present model results, which suggest that across the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey climate change is particularly rapid, and especially summer temperatures are expected to increase strongly. Temperature rise can be amplified by the depletion of soil moisture, which limits evaporative cooling, prompted by the waning of large-scale weather systems that generate rain. Very hot summers that occurred only rarely in the recent past are projected to become common by the middle and the end of the century. Throughout the region, the annual number of heat wave days may increase drastically. Furthermore, conditions in the region are conducive for photochemical air pollution. Our model projections suggest strongly increasing ozone formation, a confounding health risk factor particularly in urban areas. This adds to the high concentrations of aerosol particles from natural (desert dust) and anthropogenic sources. The heat extremes may have strong impacts, especially in the Middle East where environmental stresses are plentiful.     

Impact of woody encroachment on soil organic carbon and nitrogen in abandoned agricultural lands along a rainfall gradient in Italy

Land use changes represent one of the most important components of global environmental change and have a strong influence on carbon cycling. As a consequence of changes in economy during the last century, areas of marginal agriculture have been abandoned leading to secondary successions. The encroachment of woody plants into grasslands, pastures and croplands is generally thought to increase the carbon stored in these ecosystems even though there are evidences for a decrease in soil carbon stocks after land use change. In this paper, we investigate the effects of woody plant invasion on soil carbon and nitrogen stocks along a precipitation gradient (200?C2,500?mm) using original data from paired experiment in Italian Alps and Sicily and data from literature (Guo and Gifford Glob Change Biol 8(4):345?C360, 2002). We found a clear negative relationship (?0.05%?C?mm^?1) between changes in soil organic carbon and precipitation explaining 70% of the variation in soil C stocks after recolonization: dry sites gain carbon (up to +67%) while wet sites lose carbon (up to ?45%). In our data set, there seem to be two threshold values for soil carbon accumulation: the first one is 900?mm of mean annual rainfall, which separates the negative from the positive ratio values; the second one is 750?mm, which divides the positive values in two groups of sites. Most interestingly, this threshold of 750?mm corresponds exactly to a bioclimatic threshold: sites with <750?mm mean annual rainfall is classified as thermo-mediterranean sites, while the ones >750?mm are classified as mesomediterranean sites. This suggests that apart from rainfall also temperature values have an important influence on soil carbon accumulation after abandonment. Moreover, our results confirmed that the correlation between rainfall and trend in soil organic carbon may be related to nitrogen dynamics: carbon losses may occur only if there is a substantial decrease in soil nitrogen stock which occurs in wetter sites probably because of the higher leaching.     

Impact of climatic conditions on irrigation water requirements and hydraulic characteristics of modern irrigation systems

Irrigation system performance regards as a function of climatic conditions. The present study was carried out to study this phenomenon. Sugar beet and sesame corps were cultivated during two agricultural seasons of 2017/2018 and 2018/2019 irrigated with drip and sprinkler systems. The drip and sprinkler systems performance was evaluated in terms of hydraulic characteristics added to irrigation water requirements. The recorded monthly values were compared to the traditional estimation method. The results revealed that irrigation system efficiency was increased by increasing ambient temperature for the drip irrigation system, and vice versa was noticed with the sprinkler irrigation system. Emission uniformity and application efficiency of emitters were increased by increasing ambient temperature. While the sprinkler flow rate and distribution uniformity were decreased by increasing ambient temperature. For drip irrigation system, the average total amount of irrigation water requirements using traditional estimation for sugar beet (2372 m³/fed) was less than the actual calculated (2439 m³/fed), while for sesame crop, the traditional estimation method (2556 m³/fed) was higher than actual calculated (2477 m³/fed). Using a sprinkler system, the average total amount of irrigation water requirements by the traditional estimation (2689 and 2897 m³/fed) was less than the actual calculated (2709 and 3044 m³/fed) for sugar beet and sesame crops, respectively. So, it is important to consider the effects of climatic conditions through the agricultural season.

     

近50年来鄱阳湖流域降雨多时间尺度变化规律研究

利用鄱阳湖流域16个气象站1960~2008年共49 a的月降雨资料，采用Morlet小波函数，对该流域降雨季节变化、年际和年代际时间序列进行小波分析，揭示了流域降雨变化的多时间尺度特征，分析了不同时间尺度下降雨序列变化的周期和突变点。研究表明：①1960~1990年，年降雨量呈明显年际和代际振荡，并无显著趋势；进入90年代以后，年降雨呈现显著上升趋势；进入21世纪，尤其从2002年开始，年降雨量开始减少；②流域季节降雨和年降雨都存在多时间尺度特征，夏季降雨、冬季降雨和年降雨都存在18 a的第一主周期；春季、冬季和年降雨存在6 a次主周期；此外，春季、秋季、冬季和年降雨均存在3 a次主周期；③夏季降雨在18 a时间尺度上与年降雨变化具有相同的趋势和相位，春季降雨在3 a和6 a时间尺度上与年降雨变化具有相似趋势和相位变化     

A quantitative risk assessment of waterborne infectious disease in the inundation area of a tropical monsoon region

Flooding and inundation are annual events that occur during the rainy season in Cambodia, and inundation has a strong relationship with human health. This study simulated the coliform bacteria distribution using a hydraulic model and estimated the impact of inundation on public health using a dose–response model. The model parameters were calibrated using field survey data from Cambodia and obtained good agreement with the coliform group count distribution. The results suggest that the impact of inundation on human health is most noticeable in residential areas. The annual average risk of infection during medium-sized flood events is 0.21. The risk due to groundwater use ranges from 0.12 to 0.17 in inundation areas and reaches as high as 0.23 outside the inundation areas. The risk attributed to groundwater use is therefore higher than that for surface water use (0.02–0.06), except in densely populated areas at the city center. There is a high risk for infection with waterborne disease in residential areas, and the annual average risk during small flood events is 0.94. An assessment of possible countermeasures to reduce the risk shows that the control of inundation may bring more risk to public health in Cambodia. Shallower inundation water (<0.3 m) leads to a higher risk of infection, but if the depth is greater than 2 m, the risk is low in residential areas. The simulated results explain the spatial distributions of infection risk,, which are vitally important for determining the highest priority places with relatively high risk and will be helpful for decision makers when considering the implementation of countermeasures.