Decreasing residential fire death rates and the association with the prevalence of adult cigarette smoking — United States, 1999–2015

IntroductionEach year from 1999 through 2015, residential fires caused between 2,000 and 3,000 deaths in the U.S., totaling approximately 45,000 deaths during this period. A disproportionate number of such deaths are attributable to smoking in the home. This study examines national trends in residential fire death rates, overall and smoking-related, and their relationship to adult cigarette smoking prevalence, over this same period.MethodsSummary data characterizing annual U.S. residential fire deaths and annual prevalence of adult cigarette smoking for the years 1999–2015, drawn from the National Vital Statistics System, the National Fire Protection Association, and the National Health Interview Survey were used to relate trends in overall and smoking-related rates of residential fire death to changes in adult cigarette smoking prevalence.ResultsStatistically significant downward trends were identified for both the rate of residential fire death (an average annual decrease of 2.2% – 2.6%) and the rate of residential fire death attributed to smoking (an average annual decrease of 3.5%). The decreasing rate of residential fire death was strongly correlated with a gradually declining year-to-year prevalence of adult cigarette smoking (r = 0.83), as was the decreasing rate of residential fire death attributed to smoking (r = 0.80).Conclusions and practical applicationsDecreasing U.S. residential fire death rates, both overall and smoking-related, coincided with a declining prevalence of adult cigarette smoking during 1999–2015. These findings further support tobacco control efforts and fire prevention strategies that include promotion of smoke-free homes. While the general health benefits of refraining from smoking are widely accepted, injury prevention represents a potential benefit that is less recognized.     

油品火灾形势分析研究

根据<中国消防年鉴对近年油品火灾起数、造成人员伤亡、直接财产损失、起火原因等情况进行分析,揭示油品火灾的特点和规律,分析油品消防安全工作的薄弱环节和重点方向,并对今后如何做好油品消防安全工作提出对策和建议.     

基于锥形量热仪实验的卷烟及其包装材料燃烧特性研究

用ISO5660锥形量热仪研究了成品卷烟及其包装材料的燃烧特性,获得了这些材料在不同热辐射强度下的点燃时间和热释放速率等火灾特性参数.结果表明:烟支及其包装材料受热辐射时均可被点燃,热辐射强度越大,引燃时间越短;随辐射强度的升高样品的热释放速率呈递增趋势;在较强热辐射强度(≥25 kW/m2)下,组合样品的火灾危险性相对较大.     

Assessing the number of fire fatalities in a defined population

IntroductionFire-related fatalities and injuries have become a growing governmental concern in Sweden, and a national vision zero strategy has been adopted stating that nobody should get killed or seriously injured from fires. There is considerable uncertainty, however, regarding the numbers of both deaths and injuries due to fires. Different national sources present different numbers, even on deaths, which obstructs reliable surveillance of the problem over time. We assume the situation is similar in other countries. This study seeks to assess the true number of fire-related deaths in Sweden by combining sources, and to verify the coverage of each individual source. By doing so, we also wish to demonstrate the possibilities of improved surveillance practices.MethodData from three national sources were collected and matched; a special database on fatal fires held by The Swedish Contingencies Agency (nationally responsible for fire prevention), a database on forensic medical examinations held by the National Board of Forensic Medicine, and the cause of death register held by the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare.ResultsThe results disclose considerable underreporting in the single sources. The national database on fatal fires, serving as the principal source for policymaking on fire-prevention matters, underestimates the true situation by 20%. Its coverage of residential fires appears to be better than other fires.ConclusionsSystematic safety work and informed policy-making presuppose access to correct and reliable numbers. By combining several different sources, as suggested in this study, the national database on fatal fires is now considerably improved and includes regular matching with complementary sources.     

飞火和热辐射耦合作用点燃松针的实验研究

飞火颗粒点燃和火焰辐射引燃是森林-城镇交界域火灾两种主要引燃方式。已有很多研究关注单种引燃方式,但缺乏二者耦合作用下的引燃机理研究。实验研究了热颗粒与热辐射耦合作用下松针燃料床的点燃行为,分析了热颗粒尺寸、温度及辐射热通量对点燃特性的影响。实验结果表明:热颗粒和热辐射耦合作用的点燃危险性远远高于热颗粒或者热辐射单独作用下的点燃危险性。耦合作用时,点燃概率随颗粒尺寸、温度和辐射热通量增大而增大,热颗粒临界点燃温度以及临界辐射热通量均随热颗粒尺寸增大而降低;阴燃向明火转变的点燃时间随辐射热通量增大而降低,但与颗粒状态呈现出较为复杂的关系。     

National estimates of U.S. residential fire-related injuries: An improved procedure

This study compared fire-related injuries from two ongoing data systems to determine how to combine them to provide improved estimates of U.S. residential fire-related injuries. National estimates and characteristics of patients treated in hospital emergency rooms for fire-related injuries were compared with injuries in a database of fires attended by the fire service. National estimates, age, and diagnosis distributions of injuries seen by both a hospital and the fire service were very similar in the two systems, indicating that the systems overlapped for this segment of injuries. Each system also contained a segment of fire-related injuries that was not included in the other. Combining the overlapping segment of injuries with segments that did not overlap resulted in an estimate of 45,000–47,000 U.S. fire-related injuries, the most com-prehensive estimate of U.S. residential fire-related injuries available to date.     

城市火灾中飞火蔓延距离计算方法研究

飞火是城市火灾特别是城市震后火灾的重要蔓延方式之一,它可以使火灾在相距较远的离散可燃物之间进行跳跃式蔓延,从而增加了扑救难度,威胁扑救人员的安全。因此,对飞火蔓延现象的认识和飞火蔓延距离的计算是降低飞火危险性的前提。基于Baum-McCaffrey火焰羽流模型,重点研究在城市火灾羽流中球形飞火颗粒的上升行为和环境风影响...     

Taking Credit for Loss Control Measures in the Plant with the Likely Loss Fire and Explosion Index (LL-F&EI)

This communication proposes a new relationship for estimation of the damage factor (DF) used in the Dow Fire and Explosion Index (F&EI). The proposed new relation more clearly shows how the damage factor depends on other factors in the F&EI, such as material factor (MF) and Process Unit Hazards Factor, and leads to the definition of a new index which accounts for loss control measures implemented in the plant, and thus gives a measure of risk. Analysis shows that three types of relations exist between DF and Process Unit Hazards Factor depending on the size of the MF—low, medium or high. Further analysis shows, that the procedure in the current F&EI Guide may overestimate the DF for a very low MF and moderate to high Process Unit Hazards Factor.The analysis leads to the definition of the Likely Loss Fire & Explosion Index, which provides an estimate of risk of losses from fires and explosions as well as degrees of risk similar to the estimate of hazards and degrees of hazard associated with the Fire & Explosion Index.     

The effects of primary prevention policies on mortality from motor-vehicle crashes among children in the United States

Introduction: Every year, 4500 children die in motor-vehicle crashes in the United States, with estimated costs of more than $40,000 and $240 billion in productivity losses. The majority of deaths and injuries are associated with improper use of restraint devices, alcohol, high speeds, and built environments. Methodology: This is a retrospective study using U.S. panel data from 1997 through 2005. Data sources included the Fatality Analysis Reporting System, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, the U.S. Census Bureau, the Atlas of Presidential Elections, and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This study used conditional fixed effects negative binomial regression to analyze the effect of the covariates on mortality by state and year. Results: A total of 32,893 children died in motor-vehicle crashes (MVCs). States that allowed fines greater than $50 for lack of restraint use experienced significant reductions in mortality as well as states with laws allowing the use of red light cameras. Graduate licensing programs requiring a minimum age of 16 for the intermediate-level experienced mortality reductions as much as 90% compared with a minimum age of 14. Higher posted speeds were associated with higher mortality rates, particularly on local roads. Conclusion: This research focuses on the effects injury prevention laws have on mortality, but not on how effectively these laws are implemented and/or enforced. Results may be useful to policy-makers and public health practitioners involved in injury prevention and public health. Practical applications: Design appropriate education and training programs in road safety, implement effective road safety interventions and improve traffic safety legislation.     

基于BP神经网络的河南省火灾风险评价

采用火灾发生起数、死亡人数、受伤人数、直接经济损失、烧毁面积、受灾户数及人口火灾发生率7项指标构建河南省火灾风险评价综合体系,并用BP神经网络对该省份的18个地级市行政区的火灾风险进行评价,评价结果显示,该方法不但可以体现各地区的火灾风险相对水平,而且还可避免传统方法的主观性,具有较强的可行性和可靠性,对控制火灾风险、客观地反映各地区的消防工作现状具有一定的指导意义。     

样品尺寸对热塑性聚氨酯燃烧性能的影响研究

采用锥形量热仪对不同尺寸的热塑性聚氨酯材料进行小尺寸燃烧试验研究,获得了点燃时间、热释放速率、烟气释放速率及燃烧特性指数等参数,分析了样品尺寸对其燃烧性能的影响.结果表明:点燃时间随着材料厚度的增加而延长;材料厚度的增加加长了内部导热过程,使热释放速率峰值和烟气释放速率峰值增大,到达峰值的时间延长;燃烧特性指数中火灾增...     

基于改进LEC法的危化企业静电点燃危险评价

危化企业爆炸性危险环境下由静电放电引发的火灾爆炸时有发生,针对这一问题分析了危化企业气体、液体、固体、粉体及人体在不同生产工艺过程中静电电荷来源以及可能的静电放电形式。综合考虑静电点燃源形成可能性、爆炸性环境形成可能性、监控与控制措施有效性以及静电事故后果严重度,构建了基于改进LEC法的静电点燃危险评价方法,该评价方法能实现对危化企业静电点燃源危害的量化评估与分级。应用该方法对某加油站进行静电点燃危险评价,并根据评价结果提出了预防改进措施。     

石油化工装置火灾灭火救援力量需求计算模型

消防用水流量的确定是灭火救援力量需求分析的关键,也是准确调集力量到达火灾现场实施灭火救援的前提和基础。针对《石油化工企业设计防火规范》(GB50160-2008)对石油化工装置消防用水流量的规定存在比较宽泛和模糊的问题,借鉴国外的一般做法,通过分析化工工艺装置的火灾危险性,确定石油化工装置的火灾爆炸危险性等级;再根据火灾爆炸危险性等级和装置的规模,分级确定石油化工装置一次灭火的消防用水流量;进而建立了一种基于火灾爆炸危险性分析的石油化工装置灭火救援力量需求计算模型。该模型的建立为科学准确地调集石油化工装置火灾灭火救援力量提供了重要决策依据。     

Do home fire and safety checks by on-duty firefighters decrease the number of fires? Quasi-experimental evidence from Southern Sweden

Introduction: Fire and rescue services Syd, in the south of Sweden, started to conduct home fire and safety checks on a large scale in 2010. The goal was to reduce the damages from residential fires. Method: We estimate the effects of the intervention on the incidence of residential fires and evaluate its economic effect. We use a difference-in-kinks design to analyze time-varying intervention effects and conduct a cost–benefit analysis for the economic evaluation. Results: The results demonstrate that fires and developed fires decrease by a maximum of approximately 6% and 8% per year (assuming 100% causality) and that the intervention has positive economic effects, with the benefits estimated to be maximum 8–11 times higher than the costs. Practical applications: The results should be valuable as input when deciding whether to implement home fire and safety checks elsewhere.     

常用聚氨酯硬泡外墙外保温系统的点燃特性研究

基于锥形量热仪实验,对常用的聚氨酯硬泡外墙外保温系统的点燃特性进行了实验研究。所研究的系统种类包括粘贴保温板薄抹灰外墙外保温系统,瓷砖饰面粘贴保温板外墙外保温系统,胶粉浆料复合保温板外墙外保温系统和保温装饰板外墙外保温系统。实验结果显示,聚氨酯硬泡保温板和聚氨酯硬泡外墙外保温系统都可由热厚型点燃描述。在防护层对点燃时间的抑制效果方面,胶粉聚苯颗粒复合保温板系统最好,瓷砖饰面系统稍差但明显好于5mm和3mm厚防护层的薄抹灰系统,铝板保温装饰板系统最差。     

医院手术室火灾预防应对策略研究

随着可燃性吸入麻醉药、激光及电凝电切设备在医院手术室内的广泛应用,发生在医院手术室内的火灾具有其特殊性.一旦发生火灾时,对于正在接受手术的患者而言,由于其处于全麻或局麻的非全清醒状态,意识及行动高度受限,可能对其造成极度其严重的伤害.因此,控制手术室内火灾和爆炸危险对于手术室工作人员极为重要.     

Factors associated with motorcycle traffic crash fatalities among active duty U.S. Army personnel

Objective: Research on factors associated with motorcycle fatalities among active duty U.S. Army personnel is limited. This analysis describes motorcycle crash–related injuries from 1995 through 2014 and assesses the effect of alcohol use and helmet use on the risk of fatal injury among active duty U.S. Army motorcycle operators involved in a traffic crash, controlling for other factors shown to be potentially associated with fatality in this population.

Methods: Demographics, crash information, and injury data were obtained from safety reports maintained in the Army Safety Management Information System. Traffic crashes were defined as crashes occurring on a paved public or private roadway or parking area, including those on a U.S. Army installation. Analysis was limited to motorcycle operators. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) from a multivariable analysis estimated the effect of alcohol use and helmet use on the risk of a fatal injury given a crash occurred, controlling for operator and crash characteristics.

Results: Of the 2,852 motorcycle traffic crashes, most involved men (97%), operators aged 20–29 years of age (60%), and operators who wore helmets (95%) and did not use alcohol (92%). Two thirds of reported crashes resulted in injuries requiring a lost workday; 17% resulted in fatality. Controlling for operator and crash characteristics, motorcycle traffic crashes involving operators who had used alcohol had a 3.1 times higher odds of fatality than those who did not use alcohol (OR =3.14; 95% CI, 2.17–4.53). Operators who did not wear a helmet had 1.9 times higher odds of fatality than those who did wear a helmet (OR =1.89; 95% CI, 1.24–2.89).

Conclusions: Among U.S. Army motorcycle operators, alcohol use and not wearing a helmet increased the odds of fatality, given that a crash occurred, and additional modifiable risk factors were identified. Results will help inform U.S. Army motorcycle policies and training.     

Evaluation of CFD simulations of transient pool fire burning rates

Fire is the most commonly occurring major accident hazard in the chemical and process industries, with industry accident statistics highlighting the liquid pool fire as the most frequent fire event. Modelling of such phenomena feeds heavily into industry risk assessment and consequence analyses. Traditional simple empirical equations cannot account for the full range of factors influencing pool fire behaviour or increasingly complex plant design. The use of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modelling enables a greater understanding of pool fire behaviour to be gained numerically and provides the capability to deal with complex scenarios.This paper presents an evaluation of the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) for predictive modelling of liquid pool fire burning rates. Specifically, the work examines the ability of the model to predict temporal variations in the burning rate of open atmosphere pool fires. Fires ranging from 0.4 to 4 m in diameter, involving ethanol and a range of liquid hydrocarbons as fuels, are considered and comparisons of predicted fuel mass loss rates are compared to experimental measurements.The results show that the liquid pyrolysis sub-model in FDS gives consistent model performance for fully predictive modelling of liquid pool fire burning rates, particularly during quasi-steady burning. However, the model falls short of predicting the subtleties associated with each phase of the transient burning process, failing to reliably predict fuel mass loss rates during fire growth and extinction. The results suggest a range of model modifications which could lead to improved prediction of the transient fire growth and extinction phases of burning for liquid pool fires, specifically, investigation of: ignition modelling techniques for high boiling temperature liquid fuels; a combustion regime combining both infinite and finite-rate chemistry; a solution method which accounts for two- or three-dimensional heat conduction effects in the liquid-phase; alternative surrogate fuel compositions for multi-component hydrocarbon fuels; and modification of the solution procedure used at the liquid-gas interface during fire extinction.     

中外消防基础类标准比较研究

为明确我国消防综合类标准的发展方向,分别从消防术语标准、消防基础分类标准和消防标识标准3个方面对我国和国际消防标准化组织、美国消防标准研究机构和协会发布的消防基础标准共29项进行了比较研究。结果表明,我国消防术语标准化程度较高,但术语标准体系构成方式不合理;我国的火灾分类标准与国际标准和欧盟标准一致性程度较高;我国消防标识标准化程度不及美国,而且部分标准发布年代较早,已不能满足当前消防工作的需要。因此,建议对我国消防基础术语和专业术语标准进行整合和修订,且采用唯一标准编号的系列标准构成方式;建议参考美国标准修订消防标识类标准,增加的必要的消防安全标识,补充新型消防设备和设施的标识。     

Development of a 3D risk analysis technique for fire disaster and its application on accident simulation of a public site

In this research, we constructed a three-dimensional fire risk analysis technique (3D-FRAT) for common building fires. To demonstrate its effect, the 3D-FRAT employed a self-developed 3D risk-calculating module in combination with the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) software to simulate the Welcome Restaurant accident that happened on February 15, 1995 in Taichung City, Taiwan. This study only focuses on thermal radiation and provide a preliminary method to quantify a fire risk. Different firefighting equipment that comply with the related building and fire-preventive regulations have been used in the simulations to test their mitigating effectiveness on the accident. The results were shown by animation, 3D pictures, and sliced pictures to facilitate the researchers’ understanding of human hazards caused by thermal radiation or smoke in a specific fire accident. The minimal personnel escaping times for different hazardous factors were estimated; various firefighting designs that can reduce loss of human life and property were also perused. According to the simulation results, the individual risk values in Welcome Restaurant were between 3.108 × 10⁻⁹ to 2.719 × 10⁻⁵ (deaths/year). It is foreseeable that the 3D-FRAT can become a useful tool for related organizations to choose better fire-resistant buildings or fire-fighting equipment in the future.