Swedish nutrient reduction policies: an evaluation of cost-effectiveness

Since more than 30 years, the Swedish government as well as other governments in the drainage basin strives toward a reduction in nutrient loads to Baltic Sea coastal waters in order to combat eutrophication of the sea. In spite of this, the cost-effectiveness of actual environmental policy for meeting Baltic Sea nutrient targets has not been evaluated by national or international bodies in the region. The aim of this paper is to evaluate Swedish national nitrogen and phosphorus policies with regard to cost-effectiveness. This is done through a comparison of nutrient measures implemented through environmental policy decisions 1995–2005 with cost-effective policies for present national as well as Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) targets. The cost-effective measures are calculated using an empirical programming model including all countries adjacent to the Baltic Sea. Calculations show that measures that jointly reduce nitrogen and phosphorus are hardly applied in actual policy and that reductions in the agricultural sector are much smaller than is cost-effective. Data show, surprisingly, that considerable reductions have been carried out in the Bothnian Sea catchment in spite of there being no nutrient reduction target for this catchment. Results suggest also that the Swedish costs for meeting the new and geographically more restricted targets under the BSAP can be reduced if a policy with less restrictions on the location of phosphorus abatement is applied, compared to what is now suggested.     

A box model for calculation of collective dose commitment from radioactive waterborne releases to the baltic sea

To meet the new regulations of maximum yearly releases from Swedish nuclear power plants issued by the Swedish National Radiation Protection Institute, and to make realistic calculations of collective dose commitment derived from radionuclides discharged to the Baltic Sea, a box model AQUAPATH-BALTIC has been developed. The model calculates radionuclide concentrations in 25 boxes for discharges into given compartments and takes into consideration the dispersion rates of the water masses, the sediment-water interaction and radioactive decay. The calculated concentrations in water and sediment at steady state are then used to evaluate individual and collective intakes of activity and external exposures. The radiation doses to the global population following discharges to the Baltic Sea are also calculated.     

Empirical analysis of the variability of the maximum likelihood estimates of benzene cancer risks

This paper presents results from an on-going study of the carcinogenicity of benzene at low doses. It focuses on the statistical variability of the parametric maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the parameters of the linearized multistage (LMS) cancer dose-response model. This paper describes: 1) how pharmacokinetic conversions from animal to human were made to convert administered benzene to estimated internal doses of its metabolites; 2) the exact form of the LMS; 3) likelihood surfaces for fitting the exact form to data; and 4) results of bootstrap and Monte Carlo simulations that assess the variability of the parameters of the dose-response model. This paper suggests that the cubic form of the LMS dose-response for animal tumors is robust to sampling variability. For environmental policy, the hypothesis that linearity governs low dose benzene carcinogenicity is probably incorrect.     

用参评因子动态排序法评价环境综合质量

评价环境综合质量常用的方法是计算加权平均的综合指数,其中权重的确定又多用层次分析法（AHP）。设计以实际监测数据为依据计算两个参数yi1和yi2,并据此对各因子进行分类并排序,由此可定性确定各因子对环境总体污染的相对重要性,并判识环境污染中的关键因子、预警因子、趋好转的因子及可不必特别关注的因子;为定量确定各因子在综合评价中的权重,再依排序位次对其赋值,然后利用所赋之值进行因子间的两两比较以克服AHP法一般应用中因各人掌握标准有异而造成比较结果的不确定性,使权重确定完全建立在监测数据的客观基础上。此外,因环境污染状况随时空改变,若需对不同时段或不同区域的环境综合质量进行评价,给各因子赋予不变的权重显然不妥,而用上述思路和方法可依据实测值的差别对不同时段或不同区域的环境评价因子进行有根据的差异排序,然后再用AHP法定权,这就使不同时空环境质量的比较更为客观合理。     

Bis(4-chlorophenyl) sulfone (BCPS) in Swedish marine and fresh water wildlife-a screening study

Bis(4-chlorophenyl) sulfone (BCPS) is a high production volume chemical (HPVC) applied in thermostable polymers. BCPS has been detected as an environmental contaminant both in Europe and in North America but it is still not a commonly studied pollutant. In this study, three Baltic Sea fish species; herring (Clupea harengus), salmon (Salmo salar) and perch (Perca fluviatilis) from the Swedish coast, and one inland fish species, arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus), were analysed to screen for the occurrence and distribution of BCPS. Salmon and arctic char, were sampled in the early 1970s as well as the late 1990s. Fish eating grey seal (Halichoerus gryphus) and guillemot (Uria aalge) from the Baltic Sea were included to screen for whether BCPS biomagnify or not. The representativeness of the analysed samples for studying bioaccumulation of environmental pollutants was compared through analysis of two well known persistent and bioaccumulating compounds, 2,2',4,4',5,5'-hexachlorobiphenyl (CB-153), and 4,4'-DDE. Pooled muscle and blubber samples based on 4-10 individuals were used for analysis, as well as individual samples of grey seal blubber. 2,4,4'-Trichlorodiphenyl sulfone, was synthesised and applied as an internal standard. BCPS was detected in all marine samples but in only one of the fresh water fish samples. The highest BCPS concentrations detected, 1600 and 1900 ng/g lipid weighet (l.w.), were found in muscle from Baltic guillemot. The results indicate that BCPS is bioaccumulated in both grey seal and guillemot, and that the guillemot has higher concentrations of BCPS than the grey seal (50-500 ng/g l.w.). The concentrations found in different species of fish from the Baltic Sea ranged between 15-37 ng/g l.w. and lower concentrations were found in freshwater species (n.d.-1.8 ng/g l.w.). The present study shows that BCPS is found in all investigated species of wildlife but, in most species, still at low concentrations. However, the guillemot has levels in the low ppm range indicating a considerable biomagnification of BCPS in this species.     

Rapid Issue Tracking: A Method for Taking the Pulse of the Public Discussion of Environmental Policy

Environmental communication professionals and other decision makers need to understand public sentiment toward environmental issues to effectively carry out their stewardship responsibilities. However, it is often difficult to obtain timely and reliable information about public discussion and debate regarding these issues. This paper describes an approach designed to address this dilemma: Rapid Issue Tracking is a method for quickly “taking the pulse” of public and other stakeholder discussion. The data source for Rapid Issue Tracking is online media stories, including traditional news media, social media, and other textual data such as public comments received by an agency. Two US Forest Service cases of Rapid Issue Tracking are presented to explicate the method and its usefulness in environmental communication and decision making.     

Simulating potential vegetation distribution in a mountainous region of the Eastern Tibetan Plateau:A case study of Barkam County

The main objective of this study is to simulate the potential vegetation types on the basis of environmental parameters.The paper took Barkam County in a mountainous region of the Eastern Tibetan Plateau as the study area.The vegetation distribution was mapped in 1994 and 2007 based on TM remote sensing images by object-oriented interpretation method.We overlaid the two maps to find out the vegetation patches which have not changed,and took them as stable types.Fifty per cent of the stable patches were randomly sampled to operate the logistic regression with related environmental parameters;others were used as test data of simulated results.Seven environmental parameters were mapped,including elevation,slope,aspect,surface curvature,solar radiation,temperature and precipitation,based on DEM data and meteorological site data by GIS technology.The relationship between the spatial distribution of vegetation and environmental variables were quantified by logistic regression.The distribution probabilities of each vegetation type were calculated.Finally,the spatial distribution of potential vegetation was simulated.This research can provide a scientific basis for vegetation restoration and ecological construction in this area.     

137Cs and 90Sr behavioural regularities in the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea

Variations in 137Cs concentrations were investigated over the period 1986-1997 in the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea, following the Chernobyl power plant accident. The rate of "self-cleaning" was demonstrated to be very slow, the average concentration of 137Cs in 1996 being almost the same as that measured directly after the accident, in 1986. Measurements of both 137Cs and 90Sr concentrations generally revealed homogeneous distributions in this region of the Baltic Sea, though patchy distributions did develop under some hydrometeorological conditions. Specifically, the 137Cs concentration distribution became heterogeneous with values varying in the range 60-92 Bq/m3 under south-southwesterly wind conditions whilst the 90Sr concentration distribution developed similar characteristics with values ranging from 15 to 64 Bq/m3 under east-southeasterly wind conditions. In addition, in coastal waters, over extensive periods of north-northwesterly winds in 1995, 137Cs concentrations increased to values 1.5-2 times the overall average concentration, which was registered in 1986 and 1996. These data therefore reveal a continuing significant pollution of the waters of the Baltic Sea resulting from the Chernobyl power plant accident, a pollution compounded by the slow rate of radionuclide self-cleaning and significant probability of sudden regional concentration increase.     

论中国环境预警制度的法治化--以行政权力的规制为核心

环境预警制度蕴含了一项使行政权力合法扩张的"对应性架构",即预警级别与"强制型"或"限制型"措施之间的充分必要关系。在制度运行过程当中,环境行政权力却出现了"选择性失语"和"运动式肆意"的问题,具体表现为:一是预警级别发布时的"隐匿"与"从轻",从而对公民健康权益保护不足;二是预警状态下环境行政权力的扩张过度,使得对个人自由与企业经济自由侵害过度。由于环境治理领域"被害人-加害人"二元对立关系的模糊化、趋同化甚至同一化,传统公法学体系中的权力制约理论无法对预警状态下多样化和多层次性的行政权力进行有效地规制。那么,便有必要对现有的环境预警制度进行修正与纠偏。因此,可以从"对应性架构"的载体及其前后两端入手,对环境预警制度进行法治化建构。具体而言,对环境预警的载体"应急预案"进行形式改造,提高环境应急预案的规范层级,完善环境应急预案制定、修改等程序性规定;明确不同预警级别设定的规范层级,将作为被宪法所保护的客观利益——生态环境利益与经济利益的边界——通过"前端"预警标准予以划分;对预警状态下行政权力的"外部"制约程序予以完善。基于预警级别标准体系的划分,可以通过司法程序对"后端"环境应急预案进行"附带性审查",同时,赋予私主体直接针对预警状态下具有"外化"法效力的内部行政行为提起行政诉讼的诉权。     

Level and origin of iodine-129 in the Baltic Sea

Environmental samples, such as seawater, seaweed, lake water, lake sediment and grass collected from the Baltic Sea area were analyzed for 129I and 127I by radiochemical neutron activation analysis. In 2000, the concentration of 129I in the seawater from Borholm and M?en in the Baltic Sea has reached 6.0 x 10(-13) and 16 x 10(-13) g/l, respectively, these are more than two orders of magnitude higher than the global fallout level. The highest value of 270 x 10(-13) g/l being found in the seawater from the Kattegat. By comparison of the level of 129I in the lake water and precipitation in this region, it is estimated that more than 95% of 129I in the Baltic Sea originates from reprocessing emissions, especially from the French nuclear fuel reprocessing plant at La Hague. More than 30% of 129I in the south Baltic and 93% in the Kattegat directly originates from the marine discharges of the European reprocessing plants.     

Population dynamics,delta vulnerability and environmental change: comparison of the Mekong,Ganges–Brahmaputra and Amazon delta regions

Tropical delta regions are at risk of multiple threats including relative sea level rise and human alterations, making them more and more vulnerable to extreme floods, storms, surges, salinity intrusion, and other hazards which could also increase in magnitude and frequency with a changing climate. Given the environmental vulnerability of tropical deltas, understanding the interlinkages between population dynamics and environmental change in these regions is crucial for ensuring efficient policy planning and progress toward social and ecological sustainability. Here, we provide an overview of population trends and dynamics in the Ganges–Brahmaputra, Mekong and Amazon deltas. Using multiple data sources, including census data and Demographic and Health Surveys, a discussion regarding the components of population change is undertaken in the context of environmental factors affecting the demographic landscape of the three delta regions. We find that the demographic trends in all cases are broadly reflective of national trends, although important differences exist within and across the study areas. Moreover, all three delta regions have been experiencing shifts in population structures resulting in aging populations, the latter being most rapid in the Mekong delta. The environmental impacts on the different components of population change are important, and more extensive research is required to effectively quantify the underlying relationships. The paper concludes by discussing selected policy implications in the context of sustainable development of delta regions and beyond.     

The inflow of (238)Pu and (239+240)Pu from the Vistula River catchment area to the Baltic Sea

The aim of the work was to estimate plutonium inflow from the Vistula River’s catchments area to the Baltic Sea. There were differences in plutonium activities depending on season and sampling site. The highest activities of ²³⁸Pu and ^239+240Pu were transported from the Vistula River watershed to the Baltic Sea in spring and the lowest in summer. Annually, the southern Baltic Sea is enriched via the Vistula River with 10.3 MBq of ²³⁸Pu and 89.0 MBq of ^239+240Pu. The enhanced concentration of plutonium in water from the Vistula River is the result of its runoff from the Vistula drainage area, mostly from snowmelt, enhanced rainfalls and leached materials from river bed.     

Distribution and sources of (129)I in rivers of the Baltic region

The concentration of (129)I was measured in 54 river waters discharging into the Baltic Sea from Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Germany. Sample collection was performed during a well-bracketed time interval (June-July 1999), thus allowing comparison of the rivers over a wide latitude range without the effect of long temporal spread. Although there is no direct input of anthropogenic (129)I in the watersheds, the concentration of the isotope is about two to three orders of magnitude higher than the expected pre-nuclear era natural values in the rivers of Finland and northern Sweden, and in the rivers of southern Sweden, Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Germany; the (129)I concentration may reach five orders of magnitude higher. Furthermore, there are significant correlations between the (129)I concentration and latitude and/or distance from the North Sea and between (129)I and Cl. These findings suggest seawater as a main source of (129)I to the rivers through atmospheric transport. Of the many chemical parameters investigated, the pH may account for some of the variability in (129)I concentrations of the rivers. The contribution from nuclear weapon tests and the Chernobyl accident to the riverine (129)I is insignificant compared to the releases from the nuclear fuel reprocessing facilities. The total flux of (129)I by rivers to the Baltic Sea and related basins represents minor amounts of the isotope pool in these marine waters. External radioactivity hazards from (129)I are considered to be negligible in the Baltic region. However, as the main (129)I intake to the human body is likely through water, due to the large amount of daily water consumption, more concern should be given to internal radioactivity hazard that may be associated with the isotope's localized elevated concentration in the human organs.     

234U and 238U isotopes in water and sediments of the southern Baltic

The aim of this work was to determine the concentration of 234U and 238U and calculate the values of the 234U/238U activity ratio in waters and sediments from the various regions of the southern Baltic Sea: Gdańsk Deep, S?upsk Narrow and Bornholm Deep. The concentration of uranium in analysed sediments from southern Baltic increase with core depth to what probably is connected with diffusion from sediments to water through interstitial water, where uranium concentration is much higher than in bottom water. The highest concentrations of uranium were observed in sediments of S?upsk Narrow (0.66-7.11 mg kg(-1) d.w.) and S?upsk Bank (0.61-6.93 mg kg(-1) d.w.), the lowest in sediments from Bornholm Deep (0.54-3.77 mg kg(-1) d.w.). The 234U/238U activity ratio results indicated that the sedimentation of terrigenic material and Vistula River transport are the general sources of uranium in the southern Baltic sediments. The value of 234U/238U activity ratio in sediments from reduction areas from southern Baltic (Gdańsk Deep and Bornholm Deep) indicated that reduction process of U(VI) to U(IV) and removing of anthropogenic uranium from seawater to sediments constitutes a small part only in Gdańsk Deep.     

The EU sustainable energy policy indicators framework

The article deals with indicators framework to monitor implementation of the main EU (European Union) directives and other policy documents targeting sustainable energy development. The main EU directives which have impact on sustainable energy development are directives promoting energy efficiency and use of renewable energy sources, directives implementing greenhouse gas mitigation and atmospheric pollution reduction policies and other policy documents and strategies targeting energy sector. Promotion of use of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency improvements are among priorities of EU energy policy because the use of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency improvements has positive impact on energy security and climate change mitigation. The framework of indicators can be developed to establish the main targets set by EU energy and environmental policies allowing to connect indicators via chain of mutual impacts and to define policies and measures necessary to achieve established targets based on assessment of their impact on the targeted indicators representing sustainable energy development aims. The article discusses the application of indicators framework for EU sustainable energy policy analysis and presents the case study of this policy tool application for Baltic States. The article also discusses the use of biomass in Baltic States and future considerations in this field.     

Layered neural networks based analysis of radon concentration and environmental parameters in earthquake prediction

A layered neural network (LNN) has been employed to estimate the radon concentration in soil related to the environmental parameters. This technique can find any functional relationship between the radon concentration and the environmental parameters. Analysis of the data obtained from a site in Thailand indicates that this approach is able to differentiate time variation of radon concentration caused by environmental parameters from those arising by anomaly phenomena in the earth (e.g. earthquake). This method is compared with a linear computational technique based on impulse responses from multivariable time series. It is indicated that the proposed method can give a better estimation of radon variations related to environmental parameters that may have a non-linear effect on the radon concentration in soil, such as rainfall.     

Framework for the uncertainty assessment in the impact pathway analysis with an application on a local scale in Spain

The estimation of damage estimates due to air emissions gives important basic knowledge for decision-making on the level of environmental politics and business strategies. Nowadays, a frequently applied method to estimate environmental damages is the Impact Pathway Analysis (IPA), which can be easily carried out using models such as EcoSense or PathWays. These models produce results in a relatively short term. However, there is a lack of reliability in the results. As in many other environmental software tools, the uncertainty is the key problem that makes it difficult to convince decision-makers by the outcomes of a study. Therefore, a framework that allows assessing the uncertainties within studies in which the IPA is applied on a local scale has been developed. In this assessment framework, the uncertainties of the used parameters, including their spatial and temporal variability, are taken into account. As the model is processing a huge quantity of data, one step of the assessment consists of a screening procedure to determine the parameters that are supposed to be fixed. For the other data, probability distributions have to be selected and classified into two groups: extensively available data for which average and standard deviation can be calculated and data based on little information. A quantification of the uncertainty can be completed by a stochastic model in the form of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation on the basis of the framework. As an illustration of the framework, we have applied it to a study on the installation of an advanced gas treatment in the municipal waste incinerator of Tarragona. It can be shown that the presented stochastic approach gives a lower geometric deviation than the analytical one and that the new gas treatment reduces the environmental damages without any doubt.     

Costs of the Wastewater Standard in Pig Production in Mexico

The objective of this article is to address the environmental costs of pig farms in the La Piedad region Mexico, through an analysis of the standard on wastewater discharges to national water bodies. Field work was carried out from April to September 1999; a survey was conducted on 23 farms and samples of wastewater were taken on 11 farms. Pig production is the third most important system in Mexican livestock production. Heterogeneity in production systems, dependence on imported inputs (genetics and feed grains), and weak internalization of environmental costs are the main characteristics of pig production in Mexico. With no specific environmental regulations on intensive livestock activities at the municipal or state levels, Mexican Official Standard 001 on wastewater discharges is the only environmental obligation that pig farms must meet. Standard 001 on wastewater contains the maximum permissible limits for 20 contaminant parameters, and is based on a cost-benefit analysis that points to secondary treatment for the regulation’s economic viability. Investment in treatment systems and the fees that pig producers must pay when they fail to comply with the limits stipulated in the regulation, are estimated assessed as an approach to environmental costs. In order to remain within the limits in the standard, pig farms must invest in tertiary treatment, and that makes meeting the standard unaffordable for this sector.     

Long-term study of 99Tc in the marine environment on the Swedish west coast

The activity concentration of (99)Tc in brown seaweed (Fucus vesiculosus and Fucus serratus) and seawater were analysed in samples collected in 1991, 1995 and 2001 at several stations along the Swedish west coast. In addition to these locations, a well-defined site (S?rdal, 56.76 degrees N, 12.63 degrees E) was included with (99)Tc activity concentration data in seaweed from 1967 to 2000. Over the years, the major source of (99)Tc in the coastal waters of western Sweden has been the radioactive liquid discharge from the nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in Sellafield (UK) transported via ocean currents in the North Sea. The (99)Tc activity concentration in seaweed at the S?rdal site increased from approximately 30 Bq kg(-1) up to 230 Bq kg(-1) (dry weight) between 1997 and 2000 due to the Sellafield EARP (Enhanced Actinide Removal Plant) discharges in 1995-1996, yielding an approximate transport time of 4-5 years between the Irish Sea and the Kattegat. Due to the very sharp gradient in (99)Tc concentration between the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, (99)Tc is presently one of the best transit tracers for the recent ventilation events in the Baltic Sea.