The consequences of poaching and anthropogenic change for forest elephants

Poaching has devastated forest elephant populations (Loxodonta cyclotis), and their habitat is dramatically changing. The long‐term effects of poaching and other anthropogenic threats have been well studied in savannah elephants (Loxodonta africana), but the impacts of these changes for Central Africa's forest elephants have not been discussed. We examined potential repercussions of these threats and the related consequences for forest elephants in Central Africa by summarizing the lessons learned from savannah elephants and small forest elephant populations in West Africa. Forest elephant social organization is less known than the social organization of savannah elephants, but the close evolutionary history of these species suggests that they will respond to anthropogenic threats in broadly similar ways. The loss of older, experienced individuals in an elephant population disrupts ecological, social, and population parameters. Severe reduction of elephant abundance within Central Africa's forests can alter plant communities and ecosystem functions. Poaching, habitat alterations, and human population increase are probably compressing forest elephants into protected areas and increasing human–elephant conflict, which negatively affects their conservation. We encourage conservationists to look beyond documenting forest elephant population decline and address the causes of these declines when developing conversation strategies. We suggest assessing the effectiveness of the existing protected‐area networks for landscape connectivity in light of current industrial and infrastructure development. Longitudinal assessments of the effects of landscape changes on forest elephant sociality and behavior are also needed. Finally, lessons learned from West African elephant population loss and habitat fragmentation should be used to inform strategies for land‐use planning and managing human–elephant interactions.     

Ecological consequences of forest elephant declines for Afrotropical forests

Poaching is rapidly extirpating African forest elephants (Loxodonta cyclotis) from most of their historical range, leaving vast areas of elephant‐free tropical forest. Elephants are ecological engineers that create and maintain forest habitat; thus, their loss will have large consequences for the composition and structure of Afrotropical forests. Through a comprehensive literature review, we evaluated the roles of forest elephants in seed dispersal, nutrient recycling, and herbivory and physical damage to predict the cascading ecological effects of their population declines. Loss of seed dispersal by elephants will favor tree species dispersed abiotically and by smaller dispersal agents, and tree species composition will depend on the downstream effects of changes in elephant nutrient cycling and browsing. Loss of trampling and herbivory of seedlings and saplings will result in high tree density with release from browsing pressures. Diminished seed dispersal by elephants and high stem density are likely to reduce the recruitment of large trees and thus increase homogeneity of forest structure and decrease carbon stocks. The loss of ecological services by forest elephants likely means Central African forests will be more like Neotropical forests, from which megafauna were extirpated thousands of years ago. Without intervention, as much as 96% of Central African forests will have modified species composition and structure as elephants are compressed into remaining protected areas. Stopping elephant poaching is an urgent first step to mitigating these effects, but long‐term conservation will require land‐use planning that incorporates elephant habitat into forested landscapes that are being rapidly transformed by industrial agriculture and logging.     

Elephants, fire, and frost can determine community structure and composition in Kalahari Woodlands.

Fire, elephants, and frost are important disturbance factors in many African savannas, but the relative magnitude of their effects on vegetation and their interactions have not been quantified. Understanding how disturbance shapes savanna structure and composition is critical for predicting changes in tree cover and for formulating management and conservation policy. A simulation model was used to investigate how the disturbance regime determines vegetation structure and composition in a mixed Kalahari sand woodland savanna in western Zimbabwe. The model consisted of submodels for tree growth, tree damage caused by disturbance, mortality, and recruitment that were parameterized from field data collected over a two-year period. The model predicts that, under the current disturbance regime, tree basal area in the study area will decline by two-thirds over the next two decades and become dominated by species unpalatable to elephants. Changes in the disturbance regime are predicted to greatly modify vegetation structure and community composition. Elephants are the primary drivers of woodland change in this community at present-day population densities, and their impacts are exacerbated by the effects of fire and frost. Frost, in particular, does not play an important role when acting independently but appears to be a key secondary factor in the presence of elephants and/or fire. Unlike fire and frost, which cannot suppress the woodland phase on their own in this ecosystem, elephants can independently drive the vegetation to the scrub phase. The results suggest that elephant and fire management may be critical for the persistence of certain woodland communities within dry-season elephant habitats in the eastern Kalahari, particularly those dominated by Brachystegia spiciformis and other palatable species.     

Anthropogenic threats to evolutionary heritage of angiosperms in the Netherlands through an increase in high-competition environments

Present biodiversity comprises the evolutionary heritage of Earth's epochs. Lineages from particular epochs are often found in particular habitats, but whether current habitat decline threatens the heritage from particular epochs is unknown. We hypothesized that within a given region, humans threaten specifically habitats that harbor lineages from a particular geological epoch. We expect so because humans threaten environments that dominated and lineages that diversified during these epochs. We devised a new approach to quantify, per habitat type, diversification of lineages from different epochs. For Netherlands, one of the floristically and ecologically best-studied regions, we quantified the decline of habitat types and species in the past century. We defined habitat types based on vegetation classification and used existing ranking of decline of vegetation classes and species. Currently, most declining habitat types and the group of red-listed species are characterized by increased diversification of lineages dating back to Paleogene, specifically to Paleocene-Eocene and Oligocene. Among vulnerable habitat types with large representation of lineages from these epochs were sublittoral and eulittoral zones of temperate seas and 2 types of nutrient-poor, open habitats. These losses of evolutionary heritage would go unnoticed with classical measures of evolutionary diversity. Loss of heritage from Paleocene-Eocene became unrelated to decline once low competition, shade tolerance, and low proportion of non-Apiaceae were accounted for, suggesting that these variables explain the loss of heritage from Paleocene-Eocene. Losses of heritage from Oligocene were partly explained by decline of habitat types occupied by weak competitors and shade-tolerant species. Our results suggest a so-far unappreciated human threat to evolutionary heritage: habitat decline threatens descendants from particular epochs. If the trends persist into the future uncontrolled, there may be no habitats within the region for many descendants of evolutionary ancient epochs, such as Paleogene.     

Habitat loss, trophic collapse, and the decline of ecosystem services

The provisioning of sustaining goods and services that we obtain from natural ecosystems is a strong economic justification for the conservation of biological diversity. Understanding the relationship between these goods and services and changes in the size, arrangement, and quality of natural habitats is a fundamental challenge of natural resource management. In this paper, we describe a new approach to assessing the implications of habitat loss for loss of ecosystem services by examining how the provision of different ecosystem services is dominated by species from different trophic levels. We then develop a mathematical model that illustrates how declines in habitat quality and quantity lead to sequential losses of trophic diversity. The model suggests that declines in the provisioning of services will initially be slow but will then accelerate as species from higher trophic levels are lost at faster rates. Comparison of these patterns with empirical examples of ecosystem collapse (and assembly) suggest similar patterns occur in natural systems impacted by anthropogenic change. In general, ecosystem goods and services provided by species in the upper trophic levels will be lost before those provided by species lower in the food chain. The decrease in terrestrial food chain length predicted by the model parallels that observed in the oceans following overexploitation. The large area requirements of higher trophic levels make them as susceptible to extinction as they are in marine systems where they are systematically exploited. Whereas the traditional species-area curve suggests that 50% of species are driven extinct by an order-of-magnitude decline in habitat abundance, this magnitude of loss may represent the loss of an entire trophic level and all the ecosystem services performed by the species on this trophic level.     

A Natural Experiment on the Impact of Overabundant Deer on Forest Invertebrates

Abstract:  In large parts of North America and Europe, deer overabundance threatens forest plant diversity. Few researchers have examined its effects on invertebrate assemblages. In a natural experiment on Haida Gwaii (British Columbia, Canada), where Sitka black-tailed deer ( Odocoileus hemionus sitkensis ) were introduced, we compared islands with no deer, with deer for fewer than 20 years, and with deer for more than 50 years. We sampled invertebrates in three habitat categories: forest edge vegetation below the browse line, forest interior vegetation below the browse line, and forest interior litter. In forest edge vegetation, invertebrate abundance and species density decreased with increasing length of browsing history. In forest interior vegetation, decrease was significant only on islands with more than 50 years of browsing. Insect abundance in the vegetation decreased eightfold and species density sixfold on islands browsed for more than 50 years compared with islands without deer. Primary consumers were most affected. Invertebrates from the litter showed little or no variation related to browsing history. We attributed the difference between vegetation-dwelling and litter-dwelling invertebrates to differences in the effect of browsing on their habitat. In the layer below the browse line deer progressively removed the habitat. The extent of litter habitat was not affected, but its quality changed. We recommend more attention be given to the effect of overabundant ungulates on forest invertebrate conservation with a focus on edge and understory vegetation in addition to litter habitat.     

Using Genetic Profiles of African Forest Elephants to Infer Population Structure,Movements, and Habitat Use in a Conservation and Development Landscape in Gabon

Conservation of wide‐ranging species, such as the African forest elephant (Loxodonta cyclotis), depends on fully protected areas and multiple‐use areas (MUA) that provide habitat connectivity. In the Gamba Complex of Protected Areas in Gabon, which includes 2 national parks separated by a MUA containing energy and forestry concessions, we studied forest elephants to evaluate the importance of the MUA to wide‐ranging species. We extracted DNA from elephant dung samples and used genetic information to identify over 500 individuals in the MUA and the parks. We then examined patterns of nuclear microsatellites and mitochondrial control‐region sequences to infer population structure, movement patterns, and habitat use by age and sex. Population structure was weak but significant, and differentiation was more pronounced during the wet season. Within the MUA, males were more strongly associated with open habitats, such as wetlands and savannas, than females during the dry season. Many of the movements detected within and between seasons involved the wetlands and bordering lagoons. Our results suggest that the MUA provides year‐round habitat for some elephants and additional habitat for others whose primary range is in the parks. With the continuing loss of roadless wilderness areas in Central Africa, well‐managed MUAs will likely be important to the conservation of wide‐ranging species. Utilización de Perfiles Genéticos de Elefantes Africanos para Inferir su Estructura Poblacional, Movimientos y Uso del Hábitat en un Paisaje con Conservación y Desarrollo en Gabón Resumenfgs     

Effects of habitat fragmentation and degradation on flocks of African ant-following birds.

Tropical rain forests are rapidly cleared, fragmented, and degraded in sub-Saharan Africa; however, little is known about the response of species and even of key ecological groups to these processes. One of the most intriguing (but often neglected) ecological phenomena in African rain forests is the interaction between swarm-raiding army ants and ant-following birds. Similar to their well-known Neotropical representatives, ant-following birds in Africa track the massive swarm raids of army ants and feed on arthropods flushed by the ants. In this study we analyzed the effect of habitat fragmentation and degradation of a mid-altitude Congo-Guinean rain forest in western Kenya on the structure of ant-following bird flocks. Significant numbers of swarm raids were located in all forest fragments and in both undegraded and degraded forest. Fifty-six different species of birds followed army ant raids, forming bird flocks of one to 15 species. We quantitatively differentiated the bird community into five species of specialized ant-followers and 51 species of opportunistic ant-followers. Species richness and size of bird flocks decreased with decreasing size of forest fragments and was higher in undegraded than in degraded habitat. This was caused by the decrease of the species richness and number of specialized ant-followers at swarms, while the group of opportunistic ant-followers was affected little by habitat fragmentation and degradation. The composition of bird flocks was more variable in small fragments and degraded forest, compared to undegraded habitat in large fragments. The effect of habitat fragmentation on flock structure was best explained by the strong decline of the abundance of specialized ant-followers in small forest fragments. To conserve the association of army ants and ant-following birds in its natural state, vast areas of unfragmented and undegraded tropical rain forest are necessary.     

Coexistence between People and Elephants in African Savannas

Abstract: The decline in the range and numbers of elephants as a result of expanding human activity in Africa is recognized as one of the continent's more serious conservation problems. Understanding the relationship between human settlement patterns and elephant abundance is fundamental to predicting the viability of elephant populations. The prevailing model of human-elephant interaction predicts a negative linear relationship between rising human density and declining elephant density at a coarse (national or subcontinental) scale. Using observed elephant densities and human population data, we tested this prediction in a study area of 15,000 km² in northwestern Zimbabwe. The results did not fit a linear model. Elephant and human coexistence occurs at various levels of human density, up to a threshold of human density beyond which elephant populations disappear. This threshold seems to be related to a particular stage in the process of agriculturally transformed land becoming spatially dominant over the natural woodland that constitutes elephant habitat. Within the contexts of conservation and sustainable development in African savannas, investigating spatial relationships between elephant and human abundance should be a priority topic for future research.     

Savanna tree density, herbivores, and the herbaceous community: bottom-up vs. top-down effects

Herbivores choose their habitats both to maximize forage intake and to minimize their risk of predation. For African savanna herbivores, the available habitats range in woody cover from open areas with few trees to dense, almost-closed woodlands. This variation in woody cover or density can have a number of consequences for herbaceous species composition, cover, and productivity, as well as for ease of predator detection and avoidance. Here, we consider two alternative possibilities: first, that tree density affects the herbaceous vegetation, with concomitant "bottom-up" effects on herbivore habitat preferences; or, second, that tree density affects predator visibility, mediating "top-down" effects of predators on herbivore habitat preferences. We sampled sites spanning a 10-fold range of tree densities in an Acacia drepanolobium-dominated savanna in Laikipia, Kenya, for variation in (1) herbaceous cover, composition, and species richness; (2) wild and domestic herbivore use; and (3) degree of visibility obstruction by the tree layer. We then used structural equation modeling to consider the potential influences that tree density may have on herbivores and herbaceous community properties. Tree density was associated with substantial variation in herbaceous species composition and richness. Cattle exhibited a fairly uniform use of the landscape, whereas wild herbivores, with the exception of elephants, exhibited a strong preference for areas of low tree density. Model results suggest that this was not a response to variation in herbaceous-community characteristics, but rather a response to the greater visibility associated with more open places. Elephants, in contrast, preferred areas with higher densities of trees, apparently because of greater forage availability. These results suggest that, for all but the largest species, top-down behavioral effects of predator avoidance on herbivores are mediated by tree density. This, in turn, appears to have cascading effects on the herbaceous vegetation. These results shed light on one of the major features of the "landscape of fear" in which African savanna herbivores exist.     

Elephants as agents of habitat creation for small vertebrates at the patch scale

Ecologists increasingly recognize the ability of certain species to influence ecological processes by engineering the physical environment, but efforts to develop a predictive understanding of this phenomenon are in their early stages. While many believe that the landscape-scale effects of ecosystem engineers will be to increase habitat diversity and therefore the abundance and richness of other species, few generalities exist about the effects of engineering at the scale of the engineered patch. According to one hypothesis, activities that increase structural habitat complexity within engineered patches will have positive effects on the abundance or diversity of other organisms. Here I show that, by damaging trees and increasing their structural complexity, browsing elephants create refuges used by a common arboreal lizard. Observational surveys and a lizard transplant experiment revealed that lizards preferentially occupy trees with real or simulated elephant damage. A second experiment showed that lizards vacate trees when elephant-engineered refuges are removed. Furthermore, local lizard densities increased with (and may be constrained by) local densities of elephant-damaged trees. This facilitative effect of elephants upon lizards via patch-scale habitat modification runs contrary to previously documented negative effects of the entire ungulate guild on lizards at the landscape scale, suggesting that net indirect effects of large herbivores comprise opposing trophic and engineering interactions operating at different spatial scales. Such powerful megaherbivore-initiated interactions suggest that anthropogenic changes in large-mammal densities will have important cascading consequences for ecological communities.     

森林土壤种子库研究进展

土壤种子库与物种多样性存在密切相关性,森林土壤种子库是植被天然更新的物质基础。文章阐述了森林土壤种子库的内涵、森林生态系统土壤种子库的基本特征及其主要研究方法,探讨了影响种子库的基本因素及当前极为关注的热点问题。在受损森林生态系统目标树种培养、植被群落快速恢复和生态系统科学管理等领域仍存在一些理论和实践急待解决的问题,如随着群落进展演替土壤种子库种子数量在增加而质量却在逐渐下降,面临如何解决生态系统健康稳定发育和物种多样性长期维持问题。文章认为今后应加强土壤种子库与生物多样性保护、防止外来物种入侵乡土物种利用及对全球变化的响应等领域的研究工作,以期为从事森林土壤种子库研究和退化森林植被群落恢复实践提供理论指导。     

Threats to biodiversity from cumulative human impacts in one of North America's last wildlife frontiers

Land‐use change is the largest proximate threat to biodiversity yet remains one of the most complex to manage. In British Columbia (BC), where large mammals roam extensive tracts of intact habitat, continued land‐use development is of global concern. Extant mammal diversity in BC is unrivalled in North America owing, in part, to its unique position at the intersection of alpine, boreal, and temperate biomes. Despite high conservation values, understanding of cumulative ecological impacts from human development is limited. Using cumulative‐effects‐assessment (CEA) methods, we assessed the current human footprint over 16 regional ecosystems and 7 large mammal species. Using historical and current range estimates of the mammals, we investigated impacts of human land use on species’ persistence. For ecosystems, we found that bunchgrass, coastal Douglas fir, and ponderosa pine have been subjected to over 50% land‐use conversion, and over 85% of their spatial extent has undergone either direct or estimated indirect impacts. Of the mammals we considered, wolves were the least affected by land conversion, yet all species had reduced ranges compared with historical estimates. We found evidence of a hard trade‐off between development and conservation, most clearly for mammals with large distributions and ecosystems with high levels of conversion. Rather than serve as a platform to monitor species decline, we strongly advocate these data be used to inform land‐use planning and to assess current conservation efforts. More generally, CEAs offer a robust tool to inform wildlife and habitat conservation at scale.     

Scale Perspectives on Avian Diversity in Western Riparian Ecosystems

Conservation of riparian vegetation in western North America has, in part, emphasized providing habitats for a locally diverse avifauna. Site diversity, especially relative to the number of species present, is generally high within riparian avifaunas. Between-habitat diversity changes across a watershed, with riparian species assemblages differing most from upland assemblages at the highest and lowest elevations. This pattern can be attributed to enhanced avian movements within the riparian vegetation. The corridors for bird movements, in turn, facilitate faunal mixing on a broader scale, influencing regional diversity within landscapes. Riparian ecosystems are viewed as connectors of forests across fragmented landscapes. In western settings, however, they are highly linearized forests transecting watersheds between upland associations of high elevations and very different associations at lower elevations. Regionally, riparian vegetation represents linear islands that are internally both floristically and faunistically dynamic rather than mere bridges of homogeneous vegetation in landscape networks. The significance of riparian vegetation as habitat for western birds has been defined primarily at the local level. Conservation activities favoring site diversity are short-sighted, however, and could have severe consequences for unique elements of riparian avifaunas. Conservation actions must evaluate how local activities alter potential dispersal opportunities for ecological-generalist versus riparian-obligate species. Maintaining the character and integrity of riparian avifaunas requires planning from regional and continental perspectives.     

Understanding the effects of rainfall on elephant-vegetation interactions around waterholes

The distribution of surface water affects herbivore-vegetation interactions in arid and semi-arid regions. Limited access to surface water typically results in the emergence of vegetation gradients around natural and artificial water sources. In particular, African elephants can create large-scale gradients of woody vegetation. Understanding the dynamics of these gradients is of particular importance for the conservation of other, less mobile herbivores that depend on woody vegetation in areas close to water. While rainfall is known to be a key determinant of herbivore-vegetation interactions in dry areas, we only have limited understanding on how it impacts woody vegetation gradients around waterholes. To address this problem, we developed a deterministic simulation model that describes the interplay of rainfall, elephants and woody vegetation in the vicinity of waterholes. The model is based on elephant telemetry data and the ecological conditions in Etosha National Park (ENP), Namibia. We found that decreasing amounts of rainfall led to an increased degradation of woody vegetation, which was particularly severe in areas close to water. Based on this result we conclude that low rainfall was an important driver of recently observed patterns of vegetation degradation in ENP. More generally, rainfall appears to be a key factor that determines elephant-vegetation interactions and thus dynamics of woody vegetation gradients around waterholes. Using long-term rainfall data from ENP, we also demonstrate that an increase in the number of water sources during periods of low rainfall can mitigate the destructive impact of elephants in areas close to water. However, more research is required to assess the sustainability and effectiveness of rainfall-adapted strategies of artificial water provisioning in more detail. In particular it is important to investigate potential effects on elephant population dynamics.     

Spatial clustering of habitat structure effects patterns of community composition and diversity

Natural ecosystems often show highly productive habitats that are clustered in space. Environmental disturbances are also often nonrandomly distributed in space and are either intrinsically linked to habitat quality or independent in occurrence. Theoretical studies predict that configuration and aggregation of habitat patch quality and disturbances can affect metacommunity composition and diversity, but experimental evidence is largely lacking. In a metacommunity experiment, we tested the effects of spatially autocorrelated disturbance and spatial aggregation of patch quality on regional and local richness, among-community dissimilarity, and community composition. We found that spatial aggregation of patch quality generally increased among-community dissimilarity (based on two measures of beta diversity) of communities containing protozoa and rotifers in microcosms. There were significant interacting effects of landscape structure and location of disturbances on beta diversity, which depended in part on the specific beta diversity measures used. Effects of disturbance on composition and richness in aggregated landscapes were generally dependent on distance and connectivity among habitat patches of different types. Our results also show that effects of disturbances in single patches cannot directly be extrapolated to the landscape scale: the predictions may be correct when only species richness is considered, but important changes in beta diversity may be overlooked. There is a need for biodiversity and conservation studies to consider the spatial aggregation of habitat quality and disturbance, as well as connectivity among spatial aggregations.     

Floristic composition of arid off –shore islands in Abu Dhabi,United Arab Emirates

Data on flora and vegetation of 14 off-shore islands representing different habitat types were studied for investigating floristic composition, vegetation types and correlation with their habitats and ecosystem. The results demonstrate considerable plant distribution and diversity among the islands within the limited spectrum of species; encompassing a total of 47 species, belonging to 43 genera under 24 families. The most representative families were Amaranthaceae (9 species), Fabaceae (4 species), Poaceae (4 species) and Asteraceae and Aizoaceae (3 species each). Fourteen families are represented by only one species. The mangrove species, Avicennia marina, occurs throughout the coast of Abu Dhabi in discontinuous patches and in different water salinities. The studies also seek to underline that dominant species that constitutes the flora of Abu Dhabi are salt tolerant in nature. Compared to other Arabian Peninsula ecosystems, UAE perhaps has a higher coastal: mainland area ratio, which has contributed to a natural dominance of salt tolerant species among the community. The studies show 40% similarity among islands with respect to the species diversity. The floristic composition of the off-shore islands also indicates a need to consider these sites as protected sites.     

Ecological problems of tree species in protected ecosystems of Orissa, India

The tree layer vegetation of two protected ecosystems i.e. Similipal Biosphere Reserve (SBR) and Bhitarkanika National Park (BNP) of eastern ghat was analysed for structure, composition and diversity. With respect to the tree species composition the two protected ecosystems were differed from each other at the family, genera and species level. About 117 tree species representing 85 genera and 42 families were recorded in SBR. The average number of species per hectare was 32.5. However, a total of 29 tree species representing 22 genera and 16 families were recorded in BNP with an average number of species per hectare of 24.17. Species dominancy of the two protected areas was also different due to their difference in habitat condition. In SBR Shorea robusta was the most dominant species while in BNP Excoecaria agallocha was the most dominant species. Shannon-Wiener species diversity was 3.15 for Similipal and 2.314 for Bhitarkanika indicating that Similipal was highly diverse than Bhitarkanika. In general both the protected ecosystems of Orissa are highly rich in biodiversity and are characteristics of good ecological wealth of eastern ghat. Thus conservation and management practices are essential for the sustainability of their biodiversity.     

Multistate modeling of habitat dynamics: factors affecting Florida scrub transition probabilities

Many ecosystems are influenced by disturbances that create specific successional states and habitat structures that species need to persist. Estimating transition probabilities between habitat states and modeling the factors that influence such transitions have many applications for investigating and managing disturbance-prone ecosystems. We identify the correspondence between multistate capture-recapture models and Markov models of habitat dynamics. We exploit this correspondence by fitting and comparing competing models of different ecological covariates affecting habitat transition probabilities in Florida scrub and flatwoods, a habitat important to many unique plants and animals. We subdivided a large scrub and flatwoods ecosystem along central Florida's Atlantic coast into 10-ha grid cells, which approximated average territory size of the threatened Florida Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens), a management indicator species. We used 1.0-m resolution aerial imagery for 1994, 1999, and 2004 to classify grid cells into four habitat quality states that were directly related to Florida Scrub-Jay source-sink dynamics and management decision making. Results showed that static site features related to fire propagation (vegetation type, edges) and temporally varying disturbances (fires, mechanical cutting) best explained transition probabilities. Results indicated that much of the scrub and flatwoods ecosystem was resistant to moving from a degraded state to a desired state without mechanical cutting, an expensive restoration tool. We used habitat models parameterized with the estimated transition probabilities to investigate the consequences of alternative management scenarios on future habitat dynamics. We recommend this multistate modeling approach as being broadly applicable for studying ecosystem, land cover, or habitat dynamics. The approach provides maximum-likelihood estimates of transition parameters, including precision measures, and can be used to assess evidence among competing ecological models that describe system dynamics.     

Landscape evaluation in conservation: molecular sampling and habitat modeling for the Iberian lynx.

Conservation of endangered species requires comprehensive understanding of their distribution and habitat requirements, in order to implement better management strategies. Unfortunately, this understanding is often difficult to gather at the short term required by rapidly declining populations of many rare vertebrates. We present a spatial habitat modeling approach that integrates a molecular technique for species detection with landscape information to assess habitat requirements of a critically endangered mammalian carnivore, the Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus), in a poorly known population in Spain. We formulated a set of model hypotheses for habitat selection at the spatial scale of home ranges, based on previous information on lynx requirements of space, vegetation, and prey. To obtain the required data for model selection, we designed a sampling protocol based on surveys of feces and their molecular analysis for species identification. After comparing candidate models, we selected a parsimonious one that allowed (1) reliable assessment of lynx habitat requirements at the scale of home ranges, (2) prediction of lynx distribution and potential population size, and (3) identification of landscape management priorities for habitat conservation. This model predicted that the species was more likely to occur in landscapes with a higher percentage of rocky areas and higher cover of bushes typical of mature mediterranean shrubland mosaics. Its accuracy for discriminating lynx presence was approximately 85%, indicating high predictive performance. Mapping model predictions showed that only 16% of the studied areas constitute potential habitat for lynx, even though the region is dominated by large extents of well-preserved native vegetation with low human interference. Habitat was mostly clumped in two nearby patches connected by vegetation adequate for lynx dispersal and had a capacity for 28-62 potential breeding territories. The lynx population in Sierra Morena is probably the largest persisting today, but it is still critically small for optimism about its long-term persistence. Model results suggest habitat conservation and restoration actions needed for preserving the species, including reconciliation of hunting management with preservation of mature shrubland over large areas (particularly in rocky landscapes). The approach presented here can be applied to many other species for which the ecological information needed to develop sound habitat conservation strategies is lacking.