Ecological indicators of global climate change: A research framework

Large-scale environmental research efforts are conducted under frameworks that provide a common basis for evaluating research in many diverse fields. Such frameworks should be subjected to critical review to determine if they meet crucial expectations. In the case of the US Global Change Research Program, we perceive that most research follows a framework that we define as the predictive model framework. We believe this framework is insufficient for resolving the unprecedented predicaments posed by global change. We recommend a complementary framework, the system response framework, which directs research toward useful indicators of change rather than precise predictions. We further argue that, even if research is complementary and effective under the two frameworks, conclusive results prior to decisions should not be expected. The burden of proof must itself be a continuing topic of open discourse and inquiry.     

A multi-disciplinary framework to monetize financial consequences arising from CCS projects and motivate effective financial responsibility

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) holds promise as a safe and effective approach for addressing climate change. However, concern about potential “liability” associated with CCS often is cited as a significant barrier to project deployment. The authors contend that, in this context, the term “liability” is poorly defined and conflates concerns about the uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of potential damages with the need for financial responsibility for long-term stewardship of certified closed sites. This paper offers an analytic framework drawn from damages estimation methodologies used in comparable contexts and incorporates risk-based probabilistic modeling to assist stakeholders in evaluating the potential environmental, human health and financial consequences of CCS projects. Application of the proposed framework will achieve four distinct objectives. First, the outputs of the analyses – monetized damages estimates for adverse impact scenarios coupled with expected loss calculations that reflect scenario probabilities and identify the statistical range of possible outcomes, including “most likely” loss estimates – will help interested stakeholders consider the viability of various investment and financial risk management strategies. Second, the results can be used to develop or negotiate financial assurance instruments for analyzed projects. Third, the results will inform the public policy debate regarding the degree and magnitude of potential financial consequences resulting over the long-term, beyond an established post-closure period. And, fourth, while the detailed conceptual framework, resulting models, impact calculations and valuation analyses may be applied on a site-by-site basis, the site-specific results could be pooled to assess regional and national implications of various risk mitigation and financial risk management policies.     

Risk assessment methodologies for biotechnology impact assessment

Summary By combining hazard assessment of effects of a potential biotechnology product with exposure assessments based on study of the genetically engineered organism's fate, conclusions may be reached about the risk involved in release of the product to the environment. In order to make this risk assessment, criteria (including regulatory endpoints) must be established and then developed further against a data base from well-accepted tests. Other aspects requiring research and development include test evaluation, quality assurance, statistical procedures, and methods of identifying and monitoring not only the nominal organism(s) in the products, but also any contaminating material or organisms to which the genetically engineered components may be transferred in the environment.Application of microcosm technology to testing of genetically engineered organisms is expected to be important, since these systems may be used safely to understand fate and effects prior to (or in place of) testing the product in the environment. Limitations in the use of microcosms may be offset by the cost-effectiveness and incisiveness of results, as has been shown for other pollutants.Risk management for biotechnology products currently lacks an adequate background, but components of the process exist or can be developed. New resources, in terms of personnel, training, facilities, and funding, will be needed in order to apply the risk assessment paradigm used for toxic chemicals and pesticides. We will need to know:     

Coupling ecosystem science with management: A Great Lakes perspective from Green Bay,Lake Michigan,USA

Continued resource degradation in various areas of the Great Lakes has led to doubts of the adequacy of conventional science and management approaches. The need for a more holistic approach, identified as an ecosystem approach, appears now to be more widely accepted although progress with implementation is slow. We argue here that ecosystem science is an integral part of an ecosystem approach and is a prerequisite to effective management planning.One of the problems of implementing an ecosystem approach is forging the link between ecosystem based research and management. For Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA, certain structural and functional qualities of the ecosystem have been used to define operational guides and to formulate management objectives. These objectives are being utilized in the development of a remedial action plan for Green Bay.Deceased 5 February 1986.     

Watershed surveys to support an assessment of the regional effects of acidic deposition on surface water chemistry

Through the Direct/Delayed Response Project (DDRP), the United States Environmental Protection Agency is attempting to assess the risk to surface waters from acidic deposition in three regions of the eastern United States: the Northeast Region, the Southern Blue Ridge Province, and the Mid-Appalachian Region. The central policy question being addressed by the DDRP is: Within the regions of concern, how many surface water systems (lakes, streams) will become acidic due to current or altered levels of acidic sulfur deposition, and on what time scales? The approach taken by the DDRP is to select a statistically representative set of watersheds in each region of concern and to project the future response of each watershed to various assumed levels of acidic deposition. The probability structure will then be used to extrapolate the watershed-specific results to each region. The data will be used also for statistical investigation of hypothesized relationships between current surface water chemistry and watershed characteristics. Because the needed terrestrial data base was not available, regional watershed surveys were conducted to meet the specific data needs of the DDRP. Maps (1∶24,000) of soils, vegetation, land use, depth to bedrock, and bedrock geology were made for each watershed. The soils were grouped into sampling classes based on their hypothesized response to acidic deposition. Randomized sampling of these classes provided regional means and variances of soil properties that can be applied to individual watersheds. Because of DDRP's need for consistency within and among regions, unique quality control/quality assurance activities were developed and implemented. After verification and validation, the DDRP data base will be made publicly available. This will be a unique and useful resource for others investigating watershed relationships on a regional scale. The results of these surveys and the conclusions of the DDRP will be presented in several future papers. The current paper gives an overview of the context, rationale, logistical considerations, and implementation of these surveys, with special emphasis on the field activities of watershed mapping and soil sampling. This discussion should be useful to those planning, implementing, and managing survey activities in support of regional assessments of other environmental concerns, who are likely to face similar choices and constraints.     

The role of scientific studies in building consensus in environmental decision making: a coral reef example

We present a new approach for characterizing the potential of scientific studies to reduce conflict among stakeholders in an analytic-deliberative environmental decision-making process. The approach computes a normalized metric, the Expected Consensus Index of New Research (ECINR), for identifying where additional scientific research will best support improved decisions and resolve possible conflicts over preferred management actions. The ECINR reflects the expected change in agreement among parties over preferred management actions with the implementation and consideration of new scientific studies. We demonstrate the ECINR method based on a preliminary application to coral reef protection and restoration in the Guánica Bay Watershed, Puerto Rico, focusing on assessing and managing anthropogenic stressors, including sedimentation and pollution from land-based sources such as sewage, agriculture, and development. Structured elicitations of values and beliefs conducted at a coral reef decision support workshop held at La Parguera, Puerto Rico, are used to develop information for illustrating the methodology. The ECINR analysis was focused on a final study group of seven stakeholders, consisting of resource managers and scientists, who were not in agreement on the efficacy and respective benefits of reducing loadings from three sources: sewage, agriculture, and development. The scenario assumed that loadings would be reduced incrementally from each source through a series of management steps, which would be ranked in order of maximizing anticipated benefits. An examination of whether beliefs exhibited greater confidence and coherence between stakeholders when informed by plausible study results followed. The results suggest that new scientific research would be generally likely to bring people who initially disagreed to agree. Seventy-five percent of the hypothetical research results were projected to result in more agreement among the stakeholders. However, there can be situations where prior beliefs may be too different from the study results to shift perspectives enough to result in more agreement. Furthermore, in a few cases, hypothetical research results were projected to lead to more conflict among stakeholders. Priority research, according to the seven stakeholders, would be to quantify loadings from agriculture and sewage, and not loadings from development, since it is predicted to make little difference in the outcome. Assuming the stakeholders are conflict-averse, they would likely opt for research on sewage loadings as the highest priority. Though preliminary, these results suggest that ECINR can provide useful insights into the social implications of a research program.     

Setting Priorities for Research on Pollution Reduction Functions of Agricultural Buffers

The success of buffer installation initiatives and programs to reduce nonpoint source pollution of streams on agricultural lands will depend the ability of local planners to locate and design buffers for specific circumstances with substantial and predictable results. Current predictive capabilities are inadequate, and major sources of uncertainty remain. An assessment of these uncertainties cautions that there is greater risk of overestimating buffer impact than underestimating it. Priorities for future research are proposed that will lead more quickly to major advances in predictive capabilities. Highest priority is given for work on the surface runoff filtration function, which is almost universally important to the amount of pollution reduction expected from buffer installation and for which there remain major sources of uncertainty for predicting level of impact. Foremost uncertainties surround the extent and consequences of runoff flow concentration and pollutant accumulation. Other buffer functions, including filtration of groundwater nitrate and stabilization of channel erosion sources of sediments, may be important in some regions. However, uncertainty surrounds our ability to identify and quantify the extent of site conditions where buffer installation can substantially reduce stream pollution in these ways. Deficiencies in predictive models reflect gaps in experimental information as well as technology to account for spatial heterogeneity of pollutant sources, pathways, and buffer capabilities across watersheds. Since completion of a comprehensive watershed-scale buffer model is probably far off, immediate needs call for simpler techniques to gage the probable impacts of buffer installation at local scales.     

EPA'S BASINS MODEL: GOOD SCIENCE OR SERENDIPITOUS MODELING?1

ABSTRACT: Better Assessment Science Integrating Point and Non‐point Sources (BASINS) is a geographic‐based watershed assessment tool developed by EPA's Office of Water to help states more efficiently target and evaluate water‐bodies that are not meeting water quality standards. BASINS (EPA, 1996a, 1998) brings together data on water quality and quantity, land uses, point source loadings, and other related spatial data with supporting nonpoint and water quality models at a quicker and more effective pace. EPA developed BASINS, to better integrate point and nonpoint source water quality assessments for the Nation's 2100+ watersheds. In its zeal to achieve this endpoint, EPA has initiated a simplistic approach that was expected to grow through scientific enhancements as TMDL developers become more familiar with modeling requirements. BASINS builds upon federal databases of water quality conditions and point source loadings for numerous parameters where quality assurance is suspect in some cases. Its design allows comprehensive assessments and modeling in typical Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) computations. While the TMDL utility is the primary reason BASINS was developed, other longer‐range water quality assessments will become possible as the Agency expands the suite of assessment models and databases in future releases. The simplistic approach to modeling and user‐friendly tools gives rise, however, to technical and philosophical concerns related to default data usage. Seamless generation of model input files and the failure of some utilities to work properly suggest to NCASI that serious problems may still exist and prompts the need for a more rigorous peer‐review. Furthermore, sustainable training becomes paramount, as some older modelers will be unfamiliar with Geographic Information System (GIS) technology and associated computer skills. Overall, however, BASINS was judged to be an excellent beginning tool to meet the complex environmental modeling needs in the 21st Century.     

GM Crops: Patently Wrong?

This paper focuses on the ethical justifiability of patents on Genetically Modified (GM) crops. I argue that there are three distinguishing features of GM crops that make it unethical to grant patents on GM crops, even if we assume that the patent system is in general justified. The first half of the paper critiques David Resnik’s recent arguments in favor of patents on GM crops. Resnik argues that we should take a consequentialist approach to the issue, and that the best way to do so is to apply the Precautionary Principle, and that the Precautionary Principle, in this case, supports patents on GM crops. I argue that his argument in favor of a consequentialist treatment is invalid; his Precautionary Principle in any case appears to be incompatible with consequentialism; and his conception of reasonable precautions is too ill-defined to have any argumentative purchase. In the second half of the paper, I argue against GM crop patents, on three grounds. First, there is insufficient evidence to say whether allowing patents on GM crops will make research go faster than not having patents, whilst there is a good reason to think that, other things being equal, a society that allows patents on GM crops will be less just than one that does not. Second, even assuming that patents on GM crops will increase the pace of GM crop research, there is no social need to do so. Third, patents on GM crops will frequently have ethically unacceptable side effects.     

Integrated coastal management: top-down vs. community-based approaches

In this paper, a dynamic model is developed in which coastal quality can be improved, restored, or maintained by two distinct user groups; this is done by identifying a context that ensures an increase (or a greater increase) in coastal quality in terms of specific features that characterise the user groups. The results demonstrate that integrated coastal management is always better than non-integrated management. Moreover, when there is a low degree of interest in maintaining the coastal use over time, only integrated community-based (CB) coastal management will increase the coastal quality. Even when the interest in maintaining the coastal use over time is high, an integrated CB approach is preferred if the willingness to pay for coastal improvements is great and the marginal inefficiency of investments in coastal improvements is low, because the coastal quality improves to a greater extent; if not, only an integrated top-down (TD) approach to coastal management will increase the coastal quality. These results suggest that developing countries should always adopt a CB approach; in contrast, developed countries should adopt a CB approach where local stakeholders attach direct values to the coastal quality, and adopt a TD approach where the general population attaches indirect (option or existence) values to coastal quality.     

Static magnetic field therapy: methodological challenges to conducting clinical trials

Static magnetic field (SMF) therapy delivered by permanent magnets is being used as a self-care intervention by millions of people worldwide, despite a paucity of clinical research confirming or refuting therapeutic effectiveness. Evaluating the reported results of SMF clinical trials is difficult because researchers use heterogeneous dosing regimens, unreliable sham controls, and questionable blinding strategies. Three important methodological challenges need to be contended with when conducting and interpreting SMF studies: optimization of SMF dosimetry, use of a believable physiologically inert sham, and assurance of participant blinding in unsupervised settings. Our objectives in writing this review are to describe ten essential SMF dosing parameters that need to be reported in SMF clinical trials and to discuss sham controls and blinding procedures for SMF studies.     

POST-GRADUATE TRAINING AND RESEARCH IN APPLIED SCIENCE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE CASE OF MINERAL EXPLORATION

If a developing country decides to devote scarce human and material resources to post-graduate training and research in an applied science - based on a realistic assessment that the potential benefits from such an investment are likely to exceed the benefits from alternative investments - several approaches exist. The authors examine these alternatives as they apply to mineral exploration. They argue that if recourse is made to overseas training, programmes should be restricted by aid agencies to universities that will provide applied research subjects in the trainees' own countries. 'Twinning' arrangements between institutions in developing and developed countries may be useful if faculty in the developed country university are interested in and available for overseas work and if university administrations are aware of potential problems. The authors also discuss the provision of short-term non-academic fellowships in applied research, an approach which has not been used to extent it deserves.     

Can Volunteers Collect Data that are Comparable to Professional Scientists? A Study of Variables Used in Monitoring the Outcomes of Ecosystem Rehabilitation

Having volunteers collect data can be a cost-effective strategy to complement or replace those collected by scientists. The quality of these data is essential where field-collected data are used to monitor progress against predetermined standards because they provide decision makers with confidence that choices they make will not cause more harm than good. The integrity of volunteer-collected data is often doubted. In this study, we made estimates of seven vegetation attributes and a composite measure of six of those seven, to simulate benchmark values. These attributes are routinely recorded as part of rehabilitation projects in Australia and elsewhere in the world. The degree of agreement in data collected by volunteers was compared with those recorded by professional scientists. Combined results showed that scientists collected data that was in closer agreement with benchmarks than those of volunteers, but when data collected by individuals were analyzed, some volunteers collected data that were in similar or closer agreement, than scientists. Both groups’ estimates were in closer agreement for particular attributes than others, suggesting that some attributes are more difficult to estimate than others, or that some are more subjective than others. There are a number of ways in which higher degrees of agreement could be achieved and introducing these will no doubt result in better, more effective programs, to monitor rehabilitation activities. Alternatively, less subjective measures should be sought when developing monitoring protocols. Quality assurance should be part of developing monitoring methods and explicitly budgeted for in project planning to prevent misleading declarations of rehabilitation success.     

A PRACTICAL MODEL INTEGRATING QUALITY ASSURANCE INTO ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING1

ABSTRACT: A model of comprehensive environmental monitoring process with integral quality assurance is presented. This model views the monitoring process as iterative cycles of a series of elements: design, plan, protocols, preparation, field liaison, sample collection, sample handling, laboratory analysis, data transmission, data validation, data approval, data provision, statistical analysis, and reporting. Quality assurance is linked to each element, not just to laboratory analysis. The program of quality assurance ensures that environmental monitoring data are compatible with the project goals, are comparable between various sampling agencies, and maintain a high degree of scientific credibility. The key characteristics of the overall quality assurance process are detailed documentation, timely resolution of problems, regular reporting, and routine independent audits.     

Financial assurance and mine closure: Stakeholder expectations and effects on operating decisions

Financial assurance is increasingly seen as a means to ensure orderly, clean and lasting closure of mines. Broadly interpreted, “closure” requires leaving viable ecosystems on mining lands that are compatible with a healthy environment and with human activities, that have low hazard, and that encompass measures to prevent ongoing pollution from the site in the long-term. Financial assurance encompasses environmental surety instruments that protect the government and public in the event a mining company cannot meet its reclamation or rehabilitation obligations. As such, financial assurance is in essence the money available for closure of the mine in the case when the mine owner is not available to perform the work. A general trend towards greater environmental concern among social stakeholders in mining further serves to focus attention on policies and practices that can actually “assure” financial assurance.Financial assurance is also perceived as a means to address closure-related challenges that are increasing in number as well as diversity. Notably, current trends involve a shift towards a greater focus to the societal aspects of mine closure rather than just the ecological. The use of financial assurance, however, also raises some fundamental questions about how assurance mechanisms influence mining operations and the relationship between mining operations and their surroundings. This paper examines both the internal effect of a variety of financial assurance approaches on mining operations—in particular the manner in which environmental and social concerns are addressed by mining firms, and the almost inevitable tension between some form of financial provision for closure on the one hand, and governmental expectations of tax revenue on the other. As a major argument for supporting the conduct of mining is that state revenues from the extractive industries supply monies for the building of human and infrastructural capital, this second area of tension also has strong social and developmental overtones.     

Developing the scientific basis for assessing cumulative effects of wetland loss and degradation on landscape functions: Status,perspectives, and prospects

The incongruity between the regional and national scales at which wetland losses are occurring, and the project-specific scale at which wetlands are regulated and studied, has become obvious. This article presents a synthesis of recent efforts by the US Environmental Protection Agency and the Ecosystems Research Center at Cornell University to bring wetland science and regulation into alignment with the reality of the cumulative effects of wetland loss and degradation on entire landscapes and regions. The synthesis is drawn from the other articles in this volume, the workshop that initiated them, and the scientific literature. It summarizes the status of our present scientific understanding, discusses means by which to actualize the existing potential for matching the scales of research and regulation with the scales at which effects are observed, and provides guidelines for building a stronger scientific base for landscape-level assessments of cumulative effects. It also provides the outlines for a synoptic and qualitative approach to cumulative effects assessment based on a reexamination of the generic assessment framework we proposed elsewhere in this volume.The primary conclusion to be drawn from the articles and the workshop is that a sound scientific basis for regulation will not come merely from acquiring more information on more variables. It will come from recognizing that a perceptual shift to larger temporal, spatial, and organizational scales is overdue. The shift in scale will dictate different—not necessarily more—variables to be measured in future wetland research and considered in wetland regulation.     

Governmental Oversight of Discharges from Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations

As point sources of pollution in the United States, concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) are subject to the National Pollution Discharge Elimination System permitting system requirements. Changes to federal regulations in 2003 and a 2005 court decision have increased the governmental oversight of CAFOs. Manure application to fields from “large CAFOs” that results in unpermitted discharges can be regulated under the Clean Water Act. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s interpretation of agricultural stormwater discharges was approved so that unpermitted discharges may arise if an owner or operator of a CAFO fails to apply manure correctly. Owners and operators do not, however, have a duty to secure governmental permits in the absence of a discharge. Turning to the federal provisions regarding nutrient management plans, a court found that they were deficient. Moreover, the federal government needs to reconsider requirements that would reduce pathogens from entering surface waters. Although these developments should assist in reducing the impairment of U.S. waters, concern still exists. Greater oversight of nutrient management plans and enhanced enforcement efforts offer opportunities to provide greater assurance that CAFO owners and operators will not allow a discharge of pollutants to enter surface waters.     

External threats to ecosystems of US national parks

Activities beyond national park boundaries are now the principal source of threats to park natural resource integrity. Assessing the full impact of major threats as air and water pollution requires a long-term ecosystem-level approach in research design and execution, and park management. Failure to take such an approach renders most existing park data bases useless in the documentation of external threats. While the concept of managing national parks as ecosystems is not new, Park Service research and its organization have not provided the information necessary for such a basis of management. Quantifying the impacts on park resources due to external hydrologic regulation and air pollution is a good example of the need to employ an ecosystem approach in research. However, implementing such a program will require a fundamental change in research administration, priority setting, and conceptual approach.The first four of the articles in this special section arise from an AAAS symposium onExternal Threats to Ecosystems of the National Parks in the USA, which was convened in 1982. The articles have been revised to reflect subsequent developments in this field. The first article, by Dr. Stottlemyer, the symposium organizer, serves as an introduction to the topic. The fifth article in this special section was submitted separately, but included because it also is related to this particular topic.     

Understanding and actioning BRE environmental assessment method: a socio-technical approach

The following research applies a socio-technical approach to an original study of the role of BRE environmental assessment method (BREEAM) in sustainable building practice. The primary objective is to gain insight into what facilitates and what weakens professional associations to implement a sustainability agenda in a building project. It focuses on understanding different sets of meaning which underlie engagement with BREEAM and how BREEAM is actioned. To do this, the research framework draws on social network analysis. However, this research does not consider that sustainable building is merely an outcome of planned action. Instead, sustainable building is seen to involve processes of engagement amongst different groups, technologies, materials and methods. Therefore, the conceptual framework adopted incorporates consideration of the materiality of sustainable building engagements, highlighting the relations between actors. Interviews with project professionals involved in a case study of a BREEAM Outstanding development provide the empirical basis for this work. This research will be of interest to scholars interested in socio-technical approaches to building development, environmental building assessment methods and sustainable building.     

废弃水基钻井液的利用──MTC固井技术

治理与利用废弃钻井液是油气田环境保护的主要研究课题之一。MTC固井技术是在废弃钻井液中加入固化剂和化学处理剂使之转变为固井液，研究结果表明：只要固化剂、化学处理剂及配方选择得当，可使废弃钻井液转化为MTC固井液，这样既可节的固井成本，又为解决废弃钻井液的环境污染问题提供了一条行之有效的途径。