面向可持续发展的技术创新:从技术预见到战略选择

本文研究了技术预见、关键技术选择和技术创新之间的关系,从方法学、科学技术观的角度分析了技术预见、关键技术选择在技术创新战略中的地位和作用,提出技术预见和关键技术选择是制订和实施技术创新战略的重要手段和基础,应当成为国家创新体系的重要组成部分。建立面向可持续发展的技术创新体系,对落实全面、协调、可持续的科学发展观,实现社会和谐发展具有战略意义。本文分析了传统的技术创新与可持续发展的差异,提出适应当今经济社会发展方向的技术创新应追求经济、社会和环境效益的统一。本文还探讨了在我国开展技术预见和关键技术选择的方法和应遵循的原则,提出应从战略视角把握关键技术选择,进一步指出在技术预见的基础上促进面向可持续发展的技术创新体系建设对实现我国可持续发展战略目标具有重大意义。     

政府在中小企业绿色技术创新中的地位和作用

中小企业的快速发展带来的环境问题不容忽视，为实现中小企业自身的可持续发展也为保护环境，必须实施绿色技术创新。由于在环境配置上的“市场失效”，政府必须从宏观上支持中小企业的绿色技术创新，从污染、法规、政策等方面给予鼓励和扶持。     

全球绿色低碳发展与公平的国际制度建设

在可持续发展和扶贫框架下发展绿色经济与国际可持续发展制度建设及改革是当前世界可持续发展的核心和关键,也是"里约+20"峰会的两个主题。首先,绿色经济是体现经济社会与资源环境相协调和可持续发展的根本途径。绿色经济的核心是以低的自然资源消费、低排放、低污染,达到高的自然资源利用效益,实现高的经济社会发展水平,提供高的生活水平和优良的生活环境。全球绿色经济的发展潮流,将引发社会形态由"工业文明"向"生态文明"转变。虽然经济发展和消除贫困是发展中国家当前首要和压倒一切的优先任务,但也必须探索新型的绿色低碳工业化和现代化道路,在实现工业文明的过程中,努力建设生态文明,实现跨越式发展。同时积极应对全球绿色低碳转型中新的经济、贸易、技术竞争规则和格局的变动,加强先进技术创新,提升自身的低碳竞争力。其次,公平获取可持续发展的理念,应成为国际可持续发展制度建设和改革的基本原则。可持续发展要求既要促进经济社会发展与资源环境相协调,促进"代际公平",又要关注欠发达地区消除贫困,提高生活质量,改善生态环境,实现"国别公平"、"人际公平"。因此,国际可持续发展制度框架的建设和改革,要体现世界各国公平获取可持续发展的理念和原则,全面均衡地反映不同国情和发展阶段国家的利益诉求。主要表现在公平享有全球环境空间、公平获得现代优质能源服务、公平适应全球环境变化、公平承担责任义务及公平的国际制度和机制。中国需要统筹国内外两个大局,走中国特色的绿色低碳发展之路。最后,中国的国情和发展阶段特征,在可持续发展领域又面临比发达国家更多的困难和更严峻的挑战。在全球发展绿色经济,努力实现可持续发展的大背景下,中国要统筹国际国内两个大局,协调推进。在国际上积极参与国际制度的建设和改革,在促进全球经济发展,社会进步和环境保护等方面发挥积极的建设性的作用。在国内加强可持续发展战略的实施,走绿色、低碳和可持续发展的路径。主要战略对策包括加速转变发展方式,强化节能优先,控制能源消费总量和CO2排放总量的过快增长;加强能源结构的低碳化,逐步建立并形成以新能源和可再生能源为主体的可持续能源体系;加强城乡统筹,地区平衡,促进生态城市建设;适应国际可持续发展制度改革的趋势,加强绿色低碳和可持续发展的制度建设;抓住机遇,顺应世界绿色低碳发展潮流,自主实现发展方式的转变,把传统的资源依赖型、粗放扩张的发展方式转变到新型的技术创新型、内涵提高的发展方式上来,基本走上绿色低碳和可持续发展的轨道。     

"资源诅咒"与资源型地区可持续发展

近年来,国际经济学界越来越多的学者认同"资源诅咒"的现象,并对此现象从政治、经济和社会等不同角度进行了解释.本文在回顾这些研究的基础上,从经济视角构建了一个包含资源部门、制造业和服务业三部门的动态模型,模型的动态过程显示,资源型地区经济在面临外部资源价格突然上升的冲击时,收入的提高使得家庭会同时增加制造品和服务品的消费支出,制造品的贸易性特征导致支出漏出到其它地区,服务品的非贸易性促使本地服务部门扩张,并从制造部门中吸收劳动与资本,制造业因而萎缩,资源型地区经济的长期增长因此受到损害.模型的政策含义是资源丰裕型地区要保持可持续发展必须制定严格的开采计划,杜绝过度开采;另外还需有计划地不断强化对制造业的支持和扶助,不断鼓励制造部门的技术创新,从而减少地区经济对资源部门的依赖,在资源枯竭之前,建立起强大的制造业基础.实现经济的可持续发展.     

环境友好农业技术创新与农业经济增长关系研究

推进环境友好农业技术创新是实现农业增长模式转型、农业可持续发展和农业经济增长的重要途径。本文首先从理论角度分析了环境友好农业技术创新与传统农业技术创新的区别,认为二者本质相同但在创新驱动要素、知识供给源等方面存在差异,在此基础上理清环境友好农业技术创新与农业经济增长的关系。其次,引入环境友好农业技术推广程度为过渡指标,运用VAR模型从实证角度分析环境友好农业技术创新与农业经济增长之间的长期动态关系。结果表明:在整体上,环境友好农业技术创新每增加1%,引起农业经济增长增加0.375%,而环境友好技术推广程度每增加1%,则引起农业经济增长增加0.542%;在短期内,环境友好农业技术创新在滞后2期与滞后3期才缓慢地显现出来对农业经济增长的促进作用,具有滞后性;在长期内,环境友好农业技术创新和技术创新推广程度对经济增长的推进作用是缓慢且长期有效的,而农业经济增长是环境友好农业技术创新持续的动力,对技术创新的推广起到先强后弱的促进作用。最后建议从促进环境友好农业技术创新成果转化、完善环境友好农业技术创新政策机制、改革环境友好农业技术创新资金投入制度等方面进行政策调整,使得环境友好农业技术创新更有效地促进我国农业经济可持续增长。     

可持续发展与技术创新

加强技术创新 ,大力发展高新技术产业 ,有利于我国可持续发展战略实施。本文阐述了技术创新对提高综合国力竞争、调整产业结构的作用 ,分析了我国技术创新系统存在的问题 ,提出了技术创新及其实现产业化的政策选择。     

水资源持续利用的特性与原理

随着可持续发展战略的推进与实施，水资源持续利用成为可持续发展研究的重要内容，也是水资源学科和开发利用水资源中要研究的重要课题。水资源具有别于其它资源的独有特性，基于可持续发展理论分析了水资源的基本特性，包括自然特性、社会特性和经济特性。水资源的这些独有特性决定了在实现水资源持续利用中必须服从的原理。用系统学理论、公共选择理论、福利经济学理论、资源分配和市场经济理论，分析了这些基本原理。这些原理揭示了水资源利用自然、社会和经济运动规律，试图为实现水资源持续利用提供指导原则和规划思想。     

人类住区可持续发展

改善人居环境，是经济和社会发展中必须重视的一个问题。本文以人类住区发展为出发点，分析了我国人居环境的现状和住区发展面临的问题，指出改善人类住区环境，实现可持续发展，需要走一条科技、经济、社会和人口、资源、环境协调行动的可持续发展的道路。     

脆弱生态环境耦合下的贫困地区可持续发展研究

研究表明，中国贫困地区的分布与脆弱生态环境的分布存在一种地理空间意义上的耦合，这种耦合是一种非良性的耦合，存在着诸多问题并我着当地的社会经济发展，要改变这一现状，实现区域社会经济可持续发展，必须革新现有的贫困人口生存方式和社会经济发展模式，据此，本文提出了实现贫困地区社会经济可持续发展的战略措施应是依托现有的资源优势，推广生态农业技术，发展绿色食品和开展生态旅游。     

资源节约型与环境友好型社会技术选择及其创新激励机制的比较研究

建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会要求必须强化技术创新的“选择”意识，除传统的经济效率标准外，还要以生态效率与其它社会价值为基准来选择技术发展的方向。基于此，特提出技术剖新选择的评价标准。并认为，当前生态化技术创新面临的主要障碍是缺乏恰当的激励机制，从而导致企业的长远发展以及人类社会的可持续发展与企业短期生存压力之间的矛盾难以化解。运用博弈论的方法比较了当前各种激励方式下社会整体帕累托最优的存在性问题。结果表明，单纯对生态化产品价格进行补贴并不能使企业生态化技术创新的程度达到社会帕累托最优的程度，创新投资补贴能直接降低企业生态化技术创新所面临的风险，因此具有更好的激励效果。     

Combating climate change calls for a global technological cooperation system built on the concept of ecological civilization

Climate change has been considered as the most paramount global environmental problem and the biggest externality throughout the history of human development. Accordingly, the world is facing unprecedented technological innovation and collaborative demands to deal with climate change. In the 2015 Paris Agreement, a long-term vision of technology development and transfer implementation was proposed, and policy and financial support for technological innovation in the area of climate change was advocated. These terms aim to enable developing countries to acquire the necessary technology in the early stage of the technology cycle to address climate change challenge. However, the traditional technological innovation and cooperation mode based on industrial civilization can hardly meet the technical demands of global climate protection. To ensure the continuous development and deployment of technology in a required scale and pace, a new global technical cooperation system is proposed to develop based on the philosophy of ecological civilization. The core contents of this system are supposed be as follows: to implement all-win cooperation targets, adhering to cooperation principles of Eco-man, adopt cooperation content that reflects synergy, pursue cooperation based on mutual trust, encourage participation of multiple actors, and promote sharing of cooperative outputs.     

Innovation for sustainable development: from environmental design to transition management

Society needs to adapt in order to provide the wealth that an increasing part of the world population is getting used to. We are on a track to ecological and resource collapse if actions are not taken soon. Technology will have to play a key role in the process of changing industrial society. But innovation has to be embedded in social and organizational innovation. We need sociotechnical change. Environmentally conscious design has been practiced in engineering design for more than a decade. Its merits are sometimes blamed as futile, as the world has not witnessed a significant contribution to the solution of the larger (global) problems. This paper first sketches a scheme of the various levels of technological change, ranging from: (1) incremental optimizations of single artifacts, to (2) major change of artifacts, (3) systems change, and (4) technological transitions (involving changes in production and consumption). It outlines the stakeholders involved in these types of innovations and the parties that could orchestrate the innovation process. In this paper, It is argued that the most encompassing level of technological innovation, the level of transition, is crucial for achieving long-term sustainable development, as it has the largest potential for improvement. However, transition is not very well manageable. The paper contains a review of the literature regarding the occurrence of technological transitions. After a transition has occurred, the new system is often not efficient. Its gains in terms of diminished resource consumption or pollution have to be enlarged by less encompassing innovation strategies, such as systems innovations and product optimization. Transitions for sustainable development are often impossible, as the new systems have to compete with fully developed and optimized systems that have far advanced at the learning curve, i.e., are optimized by various systems and incremental innovations. Less encompassing levels of innovation, even those that aim at more sustainability, can counteract transitions that have more potential for sustainable development by improving the competing (unsustainable) technology. The paper will give several examples of this dilemma and some guidelines for developing government policies as well as corporate strategies. On the policy level, it is argued that it is especially important to develop (scope for) market niches for new sustainable systems and products as they create scope for experiments that could lead to transitions.

Problems and Strategies of Industrial Transformation of China's Resource-based Cities

Resource-based cities face vital economic, social, and environmental problems during their industrial transformation. Urban industrial structure is a traditional primary industrial pattern, which is resource-based and resource-intensive economy with low level technology and efficiency. They encounter tremendous pressure of unemployment and social security. Resources of such cities are on the verge of extinction, in addition, the environmental pollution and ecological conditions are becoming worse. The cities have significant institutional issues and their innovation capacity is inadequate. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out strategic innovations to realize the successful economic transformation of resource-based cities. The strategic innovations include innovation of development goals, equalization of social welfare, sustainable economic development, coordinative development between eco-environment and socioeconomy, and circular economy development strategies optimizing diversified industrial structures. In addition, forming eco-industrial system and changing traditional growth pattern, strategy of resource and industrial substitution and supplement, scientific and technological innovation strategy —late-comer's advantages of development of new high-tech ecocity development strategy and innovation of institutional mechanism and systems.     

长江经济带科技创新与绿色发展的耦合协调及其空间关联

绿色发展是长江经济带战略的首要要求,而创新是驱动区域绿色发展的核心要素。通过构建科技创新与绿色发展综合评价指标体系,以长江经济带108个地级及以上城市为研究对象,采用熵权Topsis法,耦合协调度模型和空间马尔科夫链方法,分析2006～2016年长江经济带科技创新与绿色发展的耦合协调水平、时空分布格局以及空间关联性演变。研究结果表明研究期内:(1)长江经济带科技创新和绿色发展指数总体上虽然均有一定的上升,但整体水平较低,2013年开始呈现同步增长的趋势;(2)科技创新与绿色发展的耦合度及协调度指数整体上呈上升趋势,但带内空间分异明显,长三角地区协调度明显高于其他地区;(3)科技创新与绿色发展的协调性呈现集群化现象,且具有"下游中游上游"的梯度化空间分异特征,低水平协调的城市单元可以划分为科技创新领先区、绿色发展领先区和平衡区3种类型;(4)科技创新与绿色发展协调性具有明显的空间溢出效应,长江经济带内相邻城市协调度的变换具有趋同特征。最后,提供了相关政策建议。     

可持续发展的技术创新机制

可持续发展作为一种整体的发展观,是指经济系统、社会系统与自然系统（ＥＳＮ）之间相互作用、相互制约、相互依赖的协调发展过程。本文探讨了可持续发展技术创新（ＳＴＩ）与ＥＳＮ协调发展关系及其作用与特征等问题。     

应对气候变化需以生态文明理念构建全球技术合作体系

气候变化是人类发展过程中遇到的最大全球性环境问题,也是最大的外部性问题。IPCC报告显示,实现本世纪末温度升高不超过2度的目标,需要全球经济和能源系统深度的低碳转型,并在本世纪下半叶达到温室气体的净零排放。应对气候变化因此面临着前所未有的技术创新与合作需求。2015年底达成的《巴黎协定》提出了落实技术开发与转让的长期愿景,主张对气候变化领域的技术创新给予政策和资金支持,使发展中国家在技术周期的早期阶段就能够获取必要的技术,从而为实现全球应对气候变化提供保障。然而,基于工业文明的传统技术创新与合作模式难以满足保护全球气候的技术需求。减缓与适应技术是气候变化挑战下全球命运共同体的公共财富。为保证其足够的供应,必须超越追求私人利益最大化的狭隘,基于生态文明理念构建全球应对气候变化的新型技术合作体系。其核心是:实现多赢的合作目标,遵循"生态人"的合作原则,体现协同的合作内容,基于互信的合作形式,鼓励多元主体的参与,促进合作成果的分享。中国作为新兴发展中大国,对应对气候变化技术国际合作有多元的利益需求。为有效落实《巴黎协定》,亟需以加速国际合作为契机,积极谋划中国应对气候变化技术对外合作的总体方略和具体行动,有针对性地制定与发达国家、其他发展中国家及欠发达国家间优势互补的合作计划,探索并引导"南-北-南"三方技术合作等新形式。     

How does government environmental regulation “unlock” carbon emission effect?—evidence from China

ABSTRACT

The disordered emission of carbon dioxide is an important sign of market failure, making it a must to “unlock” the high emission effect of carbon dioxide by effective means. From the perspective of technological innovation, on the basis of the data of time series from 1985 to 2014 in Beijing, China, this article empirically analyzed the relationship between environmental regulation and carbon emissions through VAR model, impulse response function, and variance decomposition. It is concluded that in a short term, environmental regulation has an inhibitory effect on carbon emissions and technological innovation and has a positive effect on industrial structure. In a long term, environmental regulation can enhance the technological innovation and reduce the effect of carbon emissions, which may even eliminate it. Generally, environmental regulation and technological innovation have a greater impact on carbon dioxide emissions, while the industrial structure has a relatively small effect. Finally, the targeted countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.     

Policy-adaptation for a smarter and more sustainable EU electricity distribution industry: a foresight analysis

The European Union (EU) transition to a smarter and more sustainable electricity sector is driven by climate change adaptation and technological developments. For the electricity distribution industry, this has contributed to a growing need to understand how these network monopolies should adapt their role, activities, and responsibilities for a redesigned electricity market, given the growth of distributed generation, and the increased control and monitoring capabilities. Considering this, a foresight study on business model innovation, technological adaptation, and market design policy alternatives is presented. A Policy Delphi method was applied, involving two iterative survey rounds and 207 European experts, which assessed 57 policy alternatives. The results highlight adaptation challenges for implementing new technologies and business practices. Experts support innovation and transition to new roles, and innovative services, while warranting that core electricity distribution activities are secured. This shift in roles is expected to be achieved through research and development (R&D) support policies, innovation friendly regulatory frameworks, and concerted actions at the EU and Member States level. The results provide policy-adaptation guidelines for electricity distribution industry stakeholders.     

农业资源型技术创新三环模式及链接特性

本文将农业资源系统理论与农业技术创新学的理论与方法相结合,重点阐述了基于科技价值链的农业资源型技术创新三环模式及链接机制.农业资源型技术创新实质上就是以提高各类农业资源利用率为核心的农业技术改造和技术革新.农业资源型技术创新价值链是指从农业技术创新源到科技成果产业化开发的全过程中,由一系列相互独立、相互联系的创新主体链接起来的,使其科技开发价值不断增值的农业资源型技术创新链条集合体.其技术生命有机体在其发育成长的三个阶段形成了由相关功能节点链接而成的三个关键创新环,即研发创新环、孵化创新环和市场创新环,称为农业资源型技术创新三环模式.在农业资源型技术创新过程中,由各功能节点组配链接成链接单元,再由链接单元链接成关键创新环,进而构成三环模式链条集合体系统网络,这一"点→元→环→链→网"的逐级链接过程,表现出定向有序性、无限多样性、互利共生性和价值递增性等创新价值链接的规律性特性.