The Ethics of Assisted Colonization in the Age of Anthropogenic Climate Change

This paper examines an issue that is becoming increasingly relevant as the pressures of a warming planet, changing climate and changing ecosystems ramp up. The broad context for the paper is the intragenerational, intergenerational, and interspecies equity implications of changing the climate and the value orientations of adapting to such change. In addition, the need to stabilize the planetary climate by urgent mitigation of change factors is a foundational ethical assumption. In order to avoid further animal and plant extinctions, or at the very least, their increased vulnerability to becoming rare and endangered; the systematic assisted colonization of “at risk” species is being seriously considered by scientists and managers of biodiversity. The more practical aspects of assisted colonization have been covered in the conservation biology literature; however, the ethical implications of such actions have not been extensively examined. Our discussion of the value issues, using a novel case study approach, will rectify the limited ethical analysis of the issue of assisted colonization of species in the face of climate change pressures. Beyond sustainability ethics, both animal and environmental ethical approaches will be used and intrinsic versus instrumental value orientations in the literature shall form the basis of our discussion. After the application of all the ethical approaches to the case studies, we conclude that without mitigation and the prospect of a future stable climate, assisted colonization will be involved in an inherently unethical process and a “move and lose it” outcome. With mitigation, there is wide-ranging ethical support for assisted colonization.     

The Value of Linking Mitigation and Adaptation: A Case Study of Bangladesh

There are two principal strategies for managing climate change risks: mitigation and adaptation. Until recently, mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in both climate change science and policy. Mitigation has been treated as an issue for developed countries, which hold the greatest responsibility for climate change, while adaptation is seen as a priority for the South, where mitigative capacity is low and vulnerability is high. This conceptual divide has hindered progress against the achievement of the fundamental sustainable development challenges of climate change. Recent attention to exploring the synergies between mitigation and adaptation suggests that an integrated approach could go some way to bridging the gap between the development and adaptation priorities of the South and the need to achieve global engagement in mitigation. These issues are explored through a case study analysis of climate change policy and practice in Bangladesh. Using the example of waste-to-compost projects, a mitigation-adaptation-development nexus is demonstrated, as projects contribute to mitigation through reducing methane emissions; adaptation through soil improvement in drought-prone areas; and sustainable development, because poverty is exacerbated when climate change reduces the flows of ecosystem services. Further, linking adaptation to mitigation makes mitigation action more relevant to policymakers in Bangladesh, increasing engagement in the international climate change agenda in preparation for a post-Kyoto global strategy. This case study strengthens the argument that while combining mitigation and adaptation is not a magic bullet for climate policy, synergies, particularly at the project level, can contribute to the sustainable development goals of climate change and are worth exploring.     

Vulnerability and resilience to climate change in Sorsogon City,the Philippines: learning from an ordinary city?

Sorsogon City is a rapidly urbanising coastal area in the Philippines. Its location, combined with a rapidly changing and growing urban fabric, leaves it vulnerable to both incremental climate change and associated extreme weather events. In this paper, UN-HABITAT data are used to draw out the climate change vulnerabilities and policy responses in Sorsogon City. Vulnerability “hotspots” highlight the spatial intersection of socio-economic justice concerns, particularly in terms of vulnerability to increased cyclone activity. We discuss vulnerabilities of Sorsogon City and its citizens to climate change and measures undertaken through various social, environmental and technical systems and interventions to increase resilience. The paper also attempts to unpick the relationship between the neat, concise reported city and the complexities of urban life using the Sorsogon experiment to consider the limitations of such approaches to governing climate change. We group these under four headings: social simplification in the absence of data; over-governance (and under-representation); quick wins versus strategic investment; and stretching the ecological and vulnerability footprints of the city. The experience of Sorsogon City is then extended to reflect on issues of governance and planning in other Asian coastal cities.     

Status,stigma and energy practices in the home

Domestic energy practices are a topical policy issue, with implications for climate change, energy security and fuel poverty. Accordingly, a growing body of literature examines ways of promoting energy conservation and generation by individuals. However, there has been relatively little discussion of how status and stigma are implicated in these practices, and may act as facilitators or barriers to “behaviour change”. To help address this gap, this article draws both on existing literature and a new UK-based study of people who are attempting to live sustainable lives, to provide insights into how domestic energy practices may be status-enhancing or stigmatising, and how these risks and opportunities can be managed. While energy practices are often understood as “inconspicuous”, it is argued here that in some circumstances individuals may actively manage the visibility of their energy practices. The discussion considers these findings with regard to social power relations, and identifies issues warranting further exploration within the emerging research agenda on energy and equity.     

Moving beyond “mitigation and adaptation”: examining climate change responses in New Zealand

Despite the apparent failure of international negotiations and renewed criticism of the accuracy of climate science, responses to climate change continue in households, cities, fields, and meeting rooms. Notions of “doing something about”, or “taking action on” or “mitigating and adapting” to climate change inform practices of carbon trading, restoring native forests, constructing wind turbines, insulating houses, using energy efficient light bulbs, and lobbying politicians for more or less of these actions. These expressions of agency in relation to climate change provide the focus of our enquiry. We found that relationships or social networks linked through local government are building capabilities to respond to climate change. However, the framework of “mitigation–adaptation” will need to be supplemented by a more diverse suite of mental models for making sense of climate change. Use of appropriate languages, cultural reference points, and metaphors embedded in diverse histories of climates and change will assist actors in their networked climate change responses.     

CLIMATE SCIENCE AND DROUGHT PLANNING: THE ARIZONA EXPERIENCE1

ABSTRACT: In response to recent severe drought conditions throughout the state, Arizona recently developed its first drought plan. The Governor's Drought Task Force focused on limiting the economic and social impacts of future droughts through enhanced adaptation and mitigation efforts. The plan was designed to maximize the use of new, scientific breakthroughs in climate monitoring and prediction and in vulnerability assessment. The long term objective of the monitoring system is to allow for evaluation of conditions in multiple sectors and at multiple scales. Stakeholder engagement and decision support are key objectives in reducing Arizona's vulnerability in light of the potential for severe, sustained drought. The drivers of drought conditions in Arizona include the El Nino‐Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.     

Harnessing community energy: the keys to climate mitigation policy adoption in US municipalities

Many US municipalities are engaged in climate change mitigation planning or efforts to reduce their communities' greenhouse gas emissions. However, most have adopted very few policies to implement their climate change mitigation goals, and many others are not pursuing climate change mitigation at all. This study examines municipalities' approaches to energy and climate issues and identifies the “keys to success” that influence the extent to which they adopt climate change mitigation policies.

Prior researchers have characterised climate change mitigation efforts as an example of multi-level governance, in which policies are formulated through a variety of networks and interactions between government actors and civil society. I find that municipalities that engage community interests and coordinate with neighbouring jurisdictions in their energy and climate planning processes are far more likely to adopt meaningful policies and conclude that such multi-level governance approaches are actually critical to the success of climate change mitigation planning.     

Vulnerability and adaptation to heat in cities: perspectives and perceptions of local adaptation decision-makers in Sweden

Climate change vulnerability is disproportionately distributed between different population segments in society. This study qualitatively explores how key stakeholders in municipalities (i.e. planning and operational staff in municipalities and the vulnerable themselves) construct social vulnerability in relation to climate change with a specific focus on thermal stress (i.e. heat waves) and which adaptive responses they identify at different levels. The empirical material consists of five focus groups with actors in a large Swedish municipality where the “Vulnerability Factor Card Game” was used as stimulus material to create 10 fictional individuals. The results show that there is a substantial amount of local knowledge about vulnerability drivers and inter-relations between social factors and vulnerability. Local decision-makers also defined a wide range of possible adaptation measures at different municipal levels. Our study clearly indicates that contextualised knowledge, which could complement the quantitative approaches in research, is abundant among municipal planners, staff employed at municipal operations such as health care, and among the vulnerable themselves. This knowledge remains untapped by research to a great extent and only seems to have an insignificant influence on policy-making. In particular, how impacts vary between different social and demographic groups and how adaptation strategies that target the most vulnerable could be defined are of great interest. The present study clearly indicates that social hierarchy may produce increased inequality in the specific context of climate change, vulnerability and adaptive responses at different levels.     

Understanding the links between urban regeneration and climate-friendly urban development: lessons from two case studies in Japan

Urban regeneration policy and projects could facilitate the implementation of spatial policy responses to mitigate climate change and adapt to its consequences in cities. However, the potential role of urban regeneration in creating climate-friendly urban environments is not sufficiently evaluated and understood. Considering this gap, the paper aims to explore the potential linkage between urban regeneration and climate change. The case study analysis focuses on two urban regeneration projects, representing two major approaches of regeneration practices in Japanese cities, namely “project-based” and “plan-based” approaches. Research findings demonstrate that urban regeneration could help in reorganising existing urban areas in a climate-friendly manner. As a cross-cutting field of urban policy, urban regeneration could also help in creating synergies between mitigation and adaptation goals. Yet, achievement of such outcomes via regeneration projects necessitates the existence of an overriding urban development vision, political commitment, and willingness to implement binding and structural measures.     

Spatially identifying vulnerable communities to climate change impact in South Australia

The impending form and extent of climate change and its direct impacts present disproportionate challenges for the most socially and economically disadvantaged groups within populations. Evaluating the vulnerability of disadvantaged groups in the context of climate change has presented tremendous theoretical, methodological and policy challenges especially where vulnerability assessment research is focused at the local community level. This study addresses the challenges by developing an interdisciplinary methodology, based on expert knowledge, and uses the state of South Australia as a case study. It focuses on key indicators that measure the exposure of local communities to climate change and socio-economic vulnerabilities of local populations. A main contribution in this study is the novel incorporation of physical, environmental and socio-demographic data sets and extensive use of spatial modelling and estimation methods to spatially define climate change and social vulnerability “hot spots”. This paper assesses vulnerability under moderate and high Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change CO₂ emission scenarios in order to generate an assessment model to be used before planning is done. The result is the creation of a practical tool through which decision-makers can better understand how the complexity of one's local spatial context influences the unique exposure, which different vulnerable communities have, to the impacts of climate change. This paper presents a useful tool that can be used in the initial assessment phase by planners and policy-makers to better assist those who are limited in their ability to adapt to climate change.     

Trends in Rainfall Exceedances in the Observed Record in Selected Areas of the United States1

Bonnin, Geoffrey M., Kazungu Maitaria, and Michael Yekta, 2011. Trends in Rainfall Exceedances in the Observed Record in Selected Areas of the United States. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6): 1173–1182. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00603.x Abstract: Semantic differences have led to a gap in the understanding of the impacts of climate change on precipitation frequency estimates. There is popular perception that heavy rainfalls have become more frequent, and that this trend will increase with global warming. Most of the literature examines this question from the point of view of climatology using definitions of “heavy,”“very heavy,” or “extreme” rainfall, which are different from those commonly used by civil engineers. This article identifies the differences in meaning used by the climate and civil engineering communities and examines trends in the observed record in the frequency of exceedances (not trends in magnitudes). Using concepts recognized as the basis for design of the Nation’s civil infrastructure, we look at trends in the number of exceedances of thresholds for a variety of precipitation frequencies and event durations used by civil engineers. We found that the estimated trends in exceedances at one‐day and multiday durations were statistically significant and increasing for the Ohio River Basin and surrounding states but the reverse was true for the Semiarid Southwest (i.e., not significant and decreasing trends). In addition, we found the magnitude of the trends was small for all but the more frequent events and also small with respect to the uncertainty associated with the precipitation frequency estimates themselves.     

Changing Human Landscapes Under a Changing Climate: Considerations for Climate Assessments

Climate change is a fundamental aspect of the Anthropocene. Climate assessments are frequently undertaken to evaluate climate change impacts, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity. Assessments are complex endeavors with numerous challenges. Five aspects of a climate assessment that can be particularly challenging are highlighted: choice of assessment strategy, incorporation of spatial linkages and interactions, the constraints of climate observations, interpretation of a climate projection ensemble, uncertainty associated with weather/climate dependency models, and consideration of landscape–climate influences. In addition, a climate assessment strategy that incorporates both traditional “top-down” and “bottom-up” methods is proposed for assessments of adaptation options at the local/regional scale. Uncertainties associated with climate observations and projections and with weather/climate dependency (i.e., response) models are incorporated into the assessment through the “top-down” component, and stakeholder knowledge and experience are included through the “bottom-up” component. Considerable further research is required to improve assessment strategies and the usefulness and usability of assessment findings. In particular, new methods are needed which better incorporate spatial linkages and interactions, yet maintain the fine grain detail needed for decision making at the local and regional scales. Also, new methods are needed which go beyond sensitivity analyses of the relative contribution of land use and land cover changes on local/regional climate to more explicitly consider landscape–climate interactions in the context of uncertain future climates. Assessment teams must clearly communicate the choices made when designing an assessment and recognize the implications of these choices on the interpretation and application of the assessment findings.     

Equity in neighbourhood walkability? A comparative analysis of three large U.S. cities

This study examines the spatial and statistical relationships between social vulnerability (SV) and neighbourhood walkability across three large U.S. cities with different urban typologies and development patterns: Charlotte, NC (a low-density, fast-growing “Sunbelt” city); Pittsburgh, PA (a moderate density, shrinking “Rust Belt” city); and Portland, OR (a progressive West Coast city known for its sprawl-containment policies). Binary logistic regression, independent-samples t-tests, and mapping techniques are employed to determine whether neighbourhoods with high SV (i.e. older populations, higher poverty rates, more service occupations, lower educational attainment, and a higher proportion of minorities) are as likely as those with low SV to exhibit a high degree of walkability. The publically available Walk Score® metric, based on proximity to amenities, street network connectivity, and density, was used as a proxy for neighbourhood walkability. The results indicate significant variability among cities, with Charlotte exhibiting the greatest potential for inequitable access to walkable urban environments and the most prominent concentration of “walk-vulnerable” block groups (BGs) with high SV and low walkability. Both Portland and Pittsburgh exhibited more equitable access when comparing BGs with high and low SV; however, they each presented unique spatial patterns, visualised using a series of maps.     

Harnessing place attachment for local climate mitigation? Hypothesising connections between broadening representations of place and readiness for change

Public engagement in local environmental planning and decision-making is often advocated on various grounds, both instrumental and normative. Yet in developed countries in the context of renewable energy infrastructure deployment, place attachment, place identity and place-protective action continue to be implicated in public objection. We set out an interdisciplinary change readiness hypothesis of specifically how local participatory scenario or visioning processes that include climate mitigation measures may support the mobilisation of place attachment for climate mitigation, including renewable energy deployment. We hypothesise that local visioning may support movement towards change readiness by helping to anchor unfamiliar social representations of low carbon energy infrastructure and new patterns of urban form in existing, more positive representations of localities and associated attachments. To this end, seeking ways to modify threat perceptions relating to climate change and renewable energy infrastructure is advocated as a key direction for study.     

Adaptation in situ or retreat? A multivariate approach to explore the factors that guide the peoples' preference against the impacts of sea level rise in coastal Bangladesh

This paper is aimed to identify the factors that influence peoples' preference for adaptation against the impacts of sea level rise (SLR). A total of 285 respondents from three coastal villages in Bangladesh are randomly interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire. First, employing the principal component analysis various factors that influence adaptation preferences of people are identified. These factors are related to “demographic and social aspects”, “wealth and economic standing”, “past coping and adaptive behaviour”, “climate knowledge and information” and “spatial aspect” of life. What is common in these factors is their ability to influence peoples' vulnerability. Finally, the binomial logistic regression model is employed to compute the explanatory power of these factors to predict the respondents' preference for adaptation in situ over retreat or vice versa. Model findings are robust for two scenarios of SLR, i.e. 2050–2075 (LR χ ²?=?133.65, pseudo-R ²?=?0.53, p?<?0.001) and 2080–2100 (LR χ ²?=?282.61, pseudo-R ²?=?0.85, p?<?0.001). Therefore, it is concluded that to avoid relocation of substantial number of people initiative for encouraging adaptation in situ must be taken along side establishment of safe shelter, community radio service and campaign for raising climate awareness.     

Making cities resilient to climate change: identifying “win–win” interventions

Urbanisation is truly a global phenomenon. Starting at 39% in 1980, the urbanisation level rose to 52% in 2011. Ongoing rapid urbanisation has led to increase in urban greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Urban climate change risks have also increased with increase in climate-induced extreme weather events and more low-income urban dwellers living in climate sensitive locations. Despite increased emissions, including GHGs and heightened climate change vulnerability, climate mitigation and adaptation actions are rare in the cities of developing countries. Cities are overwhelmed with worsening congestion, air pollution, crime, waste management, and unemployment problems. Lack of resources and capacity constraints are other factors that discourage cities from embarking on climate change mitigation and adaptation pathways. Given the multitude of problems faced, there is simply no appetite for stand-alone urban climate change mitigation and adaptation policies and programmes. Urban mitigation and adaptation goals will have to be achieved as co-benefits of interventions targeted at solving pressing urban problems and challenges. The paper identifies administratively simple urban interventions that can help cities solve some of their pressing service delivery and urban environmental problems, while simultaneously mitigating rising urban GHG emissions and vulnerability to climate change.     

Heat wave vulnerability and exposure mapping for Osaka City,Japan

Heat waves and heat-related stresses are increasing environmental concerns in urban areas. The impact of heat waves is dependent on the intensity and duration of each event and on underlying environmental and socio-demographic factors which influence population vulnerability. In order to develop effective adaptation strategies, it is important to develop a method to clearly identify the most vulnerable areas based on these factors. The purpose of this study is to develop and map a heat wave vulnerability index combined with heat exposure analysis to identify areas where interventions can be targeted. The vulnerability index was derived from a principle component analysis of eight key variables that influence heat wave vulnerability. Eight proxy measures of vulnerability were obtained from 2010 census and land-use data for the 1904 census districts of Osaka City. Three principle components explained >77 % of the variance (age, employment and education; social isolation; density and lack of green space). The components were combined and weighted to produce a vulnerability score for each census district. The vulnerability scores ranged from 0 to 106, were categorised into eight vulnerability levels and were overlaid with fine-scale air temperature observations. The resulting output identified the distribution of population vulnerability and exposure. This assessment of vulnerability, combining exposure and sensitivity components, can provide precedent for efficient, targeted action to be taken to reduce the impact of heat waves at present and under climate change.     

Vulnerability of Water Systems to the Effects of Climate Change and Urbanization: A Comparison of Phoenix, Arizona and Portland, Oregon (USA)

The coupled processes of climate change and urbanization pose challenges for water resource management in cities worldwide. Comparing the vulnerabilities of water systems in Phoenix, Arizona and Portland, Oregon, this paper examines (1) exposures to these stressors, (2) sensitivities to the associated impacts, and (3) adaptive capacities for responding to realized or anticipated impacts. Based on a case study and survey-based approach, common points of vulnerability include: rising exposures to drier, warmer summers, and suburban growth; increasing sensitivities based on demand hardening; and limited capacities due to institutional and pro-growth pressures. Yet each region also exhibits unique vulnerabilities. Comparatively, Portland shows: amplified exposures to seasonal climatic extremes, heightened sensitivity based on less diversified municipal water sources and policies that favor more trees and other irrigated vegetation, and diminished adaptive capacities because of limited attention to demand management and climate planning for water resources. Phoenix exhibits elevated exposure from rapid growth, heightened sensitivities due to high water demands and widespread increases in residential and commercial uses, and limited adaptive capacities due to weak land use planning and “smart growth” strategies. Unique points of vulnerability suggest pathways for adapting to urban-environmental change, whether through water management or land planning. Greater coordination between the land and water sectors would substantially reduce vulnerabilities in the study regions and beyond.     

Constrained Choice and Climate Change Mitigation in US Agriculture: Structural Barriers to a Climate Change Ethic

This paper examines structural barriers to the adoption of climate change mitigation practices and the evolution of a climate change ethic among American farmers. It examines how seed corn contracts in Michigan constrain the choices of farmers and allow farmers to rationalize the over-application of fertilizer and associated water pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Seed corn contracts use a competitive “tournament” system where farmers are rewarded for maximizing yields. Interviews and a focus group were used to understand fertilizer over-application and barriers to participating in a climate change mitigation program. Results indicate that farmers agree that they over-apply fertilizer but would be unlikely to participate in a mitigation program due to their contracts and lack of support from seed corn companies. Because only a few companies control access to the seed corn market, farmers feel they have few choices. Farmers rationalized their practices as their only option given the competitive nature of their contracts and blamed other sources of pollution. Despite increasing efforts to educate farmers about climate change, structural barriers will continue to constrain participation in mitigation efforts and the development of a climate change ethic.