STOCHASTIC WATER QUALITY ANALYSIS USING RELIABILITY METHOD1

ABSTRACT: This study developed a QUAL2E‐Reliability Analysis (QUAL2E‐RA) model for the stochastic water quality analysis of the downstream reach of the main Han River in Korea. The proposed model is based on the QUAL2E model and incorporates the Advanced First‐Order Second‐Moment (AFOSM) and Mean‐Value First‐Order Second‐Moment (MFOSM) methods. After the hydraulic characteristics from standard step method are identified, the optimal reaction coefficients are then estimated using the Broyden‐Fletcher‐Goldfarb‐Shanno (BFGS) method. Considering variations in river discharges, pollutant loads from tributaries, and reaction coefficients, the violation probabilities of existing water quality standards at several locations in the river were computed from the AFOSM and MFOSM methods, and the results were compared with those from the Monte Carlo method. The statistics of the three uncertainty analysis methods show that the outputs from the AFOSM and MFOSM methods are similar to those from the Monte Carlo method. From a practical model selection perspective, the MFOSM method is more attractive in terms of its computational simplicity and execution time.     

A FRAMEWORK FOR PHOSPHORUS TRANSPORT MODELING IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERSHED1

ABSTRACT: A modeling framework was developed to determine phosphorus loadings to Lake Okeechobee from watersheds located north of the lake. This framework consists of the land-based model CREAMS-WT, the in-stream transport model QUAL2E, and an interface procedure to format the land-based model output for use by the in-stream model. QUAL2E hydraulics and water quality routines were modified to account for flow routing and phosphorus retention in both wetlands and stream channels. Phosphorus loadings obtained from previous applications of CREAMS-WT were used by QUAL2E, and calibration and verification showed that QUAL2E accurately simulated seasonal and annual phosphorus loadings from a watershed. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses indicated that the accuracy of monthly loadings can be improved by using better estimates of in-stream phosphorus decay rates, ground water phosphorus concentrations, and runoff phosphorus concentrations as input to QUAL2E.     

Assessing pollution prevention program by QUAL2E simulation analysis for the Kao-Ping River Basin, Taiwan

Wise and sustainable uses of water resources are essential for an effective river-basin-management planning. Recent management strategy further addresses the fact that quantity and quality of water are closely interrelated, and both must be considered simultaneously for all water resources and water quality management practices. The aim of this paper is to explore the impacts of water resources redistribution and pollution prevention actions between and within river basins simultaneously in South Taiwan. Much emphasis will be placed on assessing the impacts of water transfer over natural boundary to satisfy the needs of industrial development in the Tseng-Wen River system and its resultant influence on the water quality in the downstream area of the Kao-Ping River system where the pollution prevention program is to be implemented. The Kao-Ping River was further characterized hydraulically and environmentally, based on a full investigation of discharges and withdrawals in the river reaches. QUAL2E was successfully calibrated and validated using data collected between 1998 and 1999, and the model was capable of predicting the concentrations of biochemical oxygen demand, dissolved oxygen, total phosphate-phosphorus, and ammonia-nitrogen (NH3-N) for the entire river system. With the aid of QUAL2E simulation model, it shows eliminating the pig farming activities and constructing the sewer systems in the upstream area of Kao-Ping River cannot guarantee the full compliance with water quality standards in the downstream area and water transfer in the upstream area further increases negative impacts on the water quality in the wet season. The predicted situation of water quality in the dry season may even present worse condition. Additional water pollution control policy, such as the use of economic instruments, for controlling and reducing the waste-load of biochemical oxygen demand and ammonia-nitrogen is needed in the Kao-Ping River system in the long run.     

Development of a water quality loading index based on water quality modeling

Water quality modeling is an ideal tool for simulating physical, chemical, and biological changes in aquatic systems. It has been utilized in a number of GIS-based water quality management and analysis applications. However, there is considerable need for a decision-making process to translate the modeling result into an understandable form and thereby help users to make relevant judgments and decisions. This paper introduces a water quality index termed QUAL2E water quality loading index (QWQLI). This new WQI is based on water quality modeling by QUAL2E, which is a popular steady-state model for the water quality of rivers and streams. An experiment applying the index to the Sapgyo River in Korea was implemented. Unlike other WQIs, the proposed index is specifically used for simulated water quality using QUAL2E to mainly reflect pollutant loading levels. Based on the index, an iterative modeling-judgment process was designed to make decisions to decrease input pollutants from pollutant sources. Furthermore, an indexing and decision analysis can be performed in a GIS framework, which can provide various spatial analyses. This can facilitate the decision-making process under various scenarios considering spatial variability. The result shows that the index can evaluate and classify the simulation results using QUAL2E and that it can effectively identify the elements that should be improved in the decision-making process. In addition, the results imply that further study should be carried out to automate algorithms and subsidiary programs supporting the decision-making process.     

Revival of Mathura's ailing Yamuna river

The quality restoration of any river, especially of the Yamuna at Mathura, a religious center in India, is a very complex and interdisciplinary endeavor. River pollution cannot be minimized merely by diverting the routes of drains carrying wastewaters and/or establishing sewage treatment plants. The required strategy for pollution control should not only be a multi-line approach but also be fool proof. The various sources of pollution in the Yamuna river and possible strategies to restore this ailing river to its pristine status are presented in this paper.     

Impact of riverbank filtration on treatment of polluted river water

The impact of riverbank filtration (RBF) on the treatment of water from the River Yamuna at Mathura, which has disagreeable visual properties, has been investigated. The dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and colour of the river water were 4.0–6.8 mg/L and 40–65 colour units (CU), respectively. Pre-chlorination is in practice to improve raw water quality. Chlorine doses as high as 60 mg/L ahead of the water treatment units reduced colour by about 78%. Removal of DOC and UV-absorbance was less than 18%. In comparison to direct pumping of the river water, collection of water through RBF resulted in the reduction of DOC, colour, UV-absorbance and fecal coliforms by around 50%. However, riverbank filtrate did not conform to the drinking water quality standards. Therefore, riverbank-filtered water along with the Yamuna water were ozonated for different durations. To reduce DOC to the desired level, the dose of ozone required for the riverbank filtrate was found to be considerably less than the ozone required for the river water. RBF as compared to direct pumping of Yamuna water appears to be effective in improving the quality of the raw water.     

MFAM模型在河流水质污染模拟及预测中的应用

文中以时间序列分析为基础，介绍了均值生成函数这一崭新概念，并且经成份因子提取分析推导建立了模拟序列的数字模型（简记为MFAM），经对黄河下游花园口断面的1988-1989年实测水质污染指标溶解氧（DO），氨氧，化学耗氧量（COD），五日生化需氧量（BOD5）等序列模拟，结果表明MFAM模型能较好地模拟河流水质污染指标的变化趋势，拟合平均误差只有5.2-6.4%，MFAM模型应用于预测1990-1991年水质污染指标变化，结果表明预测精度达85%以上，文中最后得出结论：MFAM模型应用于河流污染模拟和预测，是完全可行且十分方便。     

Model‐Based Nitrogen and Phosphorus (Nutrient) Criteria for Large Temperate Rivers: 1. Model Development and Application

An initial inquiry into model‐based numeric nitrogen and phosphorus (nutrient) criteria for large rivers is presented. Field data collection and associated modeling were conducted on a segment of the lower Yellowstone River in the northwestern United States to assess the feasibility of deriving numeric nutrient criteria using mechanistic water‐quality models. The steady‐state one‐dimensional model QUAL2K and a transect‐based companion model AT2K were calibrated and confirmed against low‐flow conditions at a time when river loadings, water column chemistry, and diurnal indicators were approximately steady state. Predictive simulation was then implemented via nutrient perturbation to evaluate the steady‐state and diurnal response of the river to incremental nutrient additions. In this first part of a two‐part series, we detail our modeling approach, model selection, calibration and confirmation, sensitivity analysis, model outcomes, and associated uncertainty. In the second part (Suplee et al., 2015) we describe the criteria development process using the tools described herein. Both articles provide a fundamental understanding of the process required to develop site‐specific numeric nutrient criteria using models in applied regulatory settings.     

盘锦近岸海域无机氮污染因子削减与预测

通过盘锦海域的海水质量和水文分析,建立盘锦海域潮流场模型。在不同输入条件下,利用潮流场模型对近岸海域的无机氮污染物含量变化响应进行模拟,得出3条河流(辽河、大辽河和大凌河)无机氮削减值,在此条件下可实现近岸海域无机氮达标要求。     

Watershed-based point sources permitting strategy and dynamic permit-trading analysis

Permit-trading policy in a total maximum daily load (TMDL) program may provide an additional avenue to produce environmental benefit, which closely approximates what would be achieved through a command and control approach, with relatively lower costs. One of the important considerations that might affect the effective trading mechanism is to determine the dynamic transaction prices and trading ratios in response to seasonal changes of assimilative capacity in the river. Advanced studies associated with multi-temporal spatially varied trading ratios among point sources to manage water pollution hold considerable potential for industries and policy makers alike. This paper aims to present an integrated simulation and optimization analysis for generating spatially varied trading ratios and evaluating seasonal transaction prices accordingly. It is designed to configure a permit-trading structure basin-wide and provide decision makers with a wealth of cost-effective, technology-oriented, risk-informed, and community-based management strategies. The case study, seamlessly integrating a QUAL2E simulation model with an optimal waste load allocation (WLA) scheme in a designated TMDL study area, helps understand the complexity of varying environmental resources values over space and time. The pollutants of concern in this region, which are eligible for trading, mainly include both biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and ammonia-nitrogen (NH3-N). The problem solution, as a consequence, suggests an array of waste load reduction targets in a well-defined WLA scheme and exhibits a dynamic permit-trading framework among different sub-watersheds in the study area. Research findings gained in this paper may extend to any transferable dynamic-discharge permit (TDDP) program worldwide.     

Probabilistic fugacity analysis of Lake Pontchartrain pollution after Hurricane Katrina

After Hurricane Katrina passed through the US Gulf Coast in August 2005, floodwaters covering New Orleans were pumped into Lake Pontchartrain as part of the rehabilitation process in order to make the city habitable again. The long-term consequences of this environmentally critical decision were difficult to assess at the time and were left to observation. In the aftermath of these natural disasters, and in cases of emergency, the proactive use of screening level models may prove to be an important factor in making appropriate decisions to identify cost effective and environmentally friendly mitigation solutions. In this paper, we propose such a model and demonstrate its use through the application of several hypothetical scenarios to examine the likely response of Lake Pontchartrain to the contaminant loading that were possibly in the New Orleans floodwaters. For this purpose, an unsteady-state fugacity model was developed in order to examine the environmental effects of contaminants with different physicochemical characteristics on Lake Pontchartrain. The three representative contaminants selected for this purpose are benzene, atrazine, and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). The proposed approach yields continuous fugacity values for contaminants in the water, air, and sediment compartments of the lake system which are analogous to concentrations. Since contaminant data for the floodwaters are limited, an uncertainty analysis was also performed in this study. The effects of uncertainty in the model parameters were investigated through Monte Carlo analysis. Results indicate that the acceptable recovery of Lake Pontchartrain will require a long period of time. The computed time range for the levels of the three contaminants considered in this study to decrease to maximum contaminant levels (MCLs) is about 1 year to 68 years. The model can be implemented to assess the possible extent of damage inflicted by any storm event on the natural water resources of Southern Louisiana or similar environments elsewhere. Furthermore, the model developed can be used as a useful decision-making tool for planning and remediation in similar emergency situations by examining various potential contamination scenarios and their consequences.     

基于十圩港考核断面达标的入江支流污染来源研究

泰州靖江市新十圩港大桥省考断面近年来水质出现超标现象,为了控制该断面水质达标,不让超标水汇入长江.基于水文、水质和污染源资料,建立了靖江市十圩港河流一维水环境数学模型.利用控制断面达标法、污染影响分担率计算法得到十圩港河道的水环境容量与各镇分担率.与现状污染物入河量对比,从而确定了研究区域内各类污染物的削减量;根据各入...     

A river water quality management model for optimising regional wastewater treatment using a genetic algorithm

To achieve water quality goals and wastewater treatment cost optimisation in a river basin, a water quality management model has been developed through the integration of a genetic algorithm (GA) and a mathematical water quality model. The developed model has been applied to the Youngsan River, where water quality has decreased due to heavy pollutant loads from Kwangju City and surrounding areas. Pollution source, land use, geographic features and measured water quality data of the river basin were incorporated into the Arc/View geographic information system database. With the database, the management model calculated treatment type and treatment cost for each wastewater treatment plant in the river basin. Until now, wastewater treatment policy for polluted rivers in Korea has been, first of all, to construct secondary treatment plants for untreated areas, and secondarily, to construct advanced treatment plants for the river sections whose water quality is impaired and for which the water quality goal of the Ministry of Environment is not met. Four scenarios that do not use the GA were proposed and they were compared with the results of the management model using the GA. It became clear that the results based on the GA were much better than those for the other four scenarios from the viewpoint of the achievement of water quality goals and cost optimisation.     

An imprecise fuzzy risk approach for water quality management of a river system

Uncertainty plays an important role in water quality management problems. The major sources of uncertainty in a water quality management problem are the random nature of hydrologic variables and imprecision (fuzziness) associated with goals of the dischargers and pollution control agencies (PCA). Many Waste Load Allocation (WLA) problems are solved by considering these two sources of uncertainty. Apart from randomness and fuzziness, missing data in the time series of a hydrologic variable may result in additional uncertainty due to partial ignorance. These uncertainties render the input parameters as imprecise parameters in water quality decision making. In this paper an Imprecise Fuzzy Waste Load Allocation Model (IFWLAM) is developed for water quality management of a river system subject to uncertainty arising from partial ignorance. In a WLA problem, both randomness and imprecision can be addressed simultaneously by fuzzy risk of low water quality. A methodology is developed for the computation of imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality, when the parameters are characterized by uncertainty due to partial ignorance. A Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to evaluate the imprecise fuzzy risk of low water quality by considering the input variables as imprecise. Fuzzy multiobjective optimization is used to formulate the multiobjective model. The model developed is based on a fuzzy multiobjective optimization problem with max–min as the operator. This usually does not result in a unique solution but gives multiple solutions. Two optimization models are developed to capture all the decision alternatives or multiple solutions. The objective of the two optimization models is to obtain a range of fractional removal levels for the dischargers, such that the resultant fuzzy risk will be within acceptable limits. Specification of a range for fractional removal levels enhances flexibility in decision making. The methodology is demonstrated with a case study of the Tunga–Bhadra river system in India.     

A WATER QUALITY‐BASED APPROACH FOR WATERSHED WIDE BMP STRATEGIES1

ABSTRACT: Watershed management strategies generally involve controlling nonpoint source pollution by implementing various best management practices (BMPs). Currently, stormwater management programs in most states use a performance‐based approach to implement onsite BMPs. This approach fails to link the onsite BMP performance directly to receiving water quality benefits, and it does not take into account the combined treatment effects of all the stormwater management practices within a watershed. To address these issues, this paper proposes a water quality‐based BMP planning approach for effective nonpoint source pollution control at a watershed scale. A coupled modeling system consisting of a watershed model (HSPF) and a receiving water quality model (CE‐QUAL‐W2) was developed to establish the linkage between BMP performance and receiving water quality targets. A Monte Carlo simulation approach was utilized to develop alternative BMP strategies at a watershed level. The developed methodology was applied to the Swift Creek Reservoir watershed in Virginia, and the results show that the proposed approach allows for the development of BMP strategies that lead to full compliance with water quality requirements.     

The influence of metal source uncertainty on cost-effective allocation of mine water pollution abatement in catchments

In mine water pollution abatement, it is commonly assumed that known mine waste sites are the major pollution sources, thus neglecting the possibility of significant contribution from other old and diffuse sources within a catchment. We investigate the influence of different types of pollution source uncertainty on cost-effective allocation of abatement measures for mine water pollution. A catchment-scale cost-minimization model is developed and applied to the catchment of the river Dalälven, Sweden, in order to exemplify important effects of such source uncertainty. Results indicate that, if the pollution distribution between point and diffuse sources is partly unknown, downstream abatement measures, such as constructed wetlands, at given compliance boundaries are often cost-effective. If downstream abatement measures are not practically feasible, the pollution source distribution between point and diffuse mine water sources is critical for cost-effective solutions to abatement measure allocation in catchments. In contrast, cost-effective solutions are relatively insensitive to uncertainty in total pollutant discharge from mine water sources.     

Modeling Megacity Drinking Water Security under a DSS Framework in a Tidal River at the North Pearl River Delta,China

A modeling study was undertaken under a decision support system (DSS) for drinking water security in the Foshan section of the Beijiang River, a typical tidal river in the North Pearl River Delta. The DSS included a database layer, application support layer, and an application layer. As an integral part of the DSS application support layer, an integrated modeling system was developed to simulate hydrodynamics. The balance of dissolved oxygen and toxicants was based on an environmental fluid dynamics code and a water quality analysis simulation program (WASP) modeling framework. Model calibration and validation was undertaken using monitoring data in normal hydrological conditions. Four scenarios for the environmental management of water, including current water temp‐spatial feature analysis, control of pollution sources, and emergency response, were designed and analyzed in the DSS. The results indicated that the tide downstream has a distinct influence on hydrodynamics and pollutant diffusion, and the DSS could be used to design effective schemes to reduce pollutant discharges and provide emergency responses for ensuring drinking water security.     

Sustainable Water Quality Management Framework and a Strategy Planning System for a River Basin

In Taiwan, the authorities have spent years working on remedying polluted rivers. Generally, the remediation planning works are divided into two phases. During the first phase, the allowed pollution discharge quantity and abatement quantity of each drainage zone, including the assimilative capacity, are generated based on the total river basin. In the second phase, the abatement action plans for each pollution source in each drainage zone are respectively devised by the related organizations based on the strategies generated during the first phase. However, the effectiveness of linking the two phases is usually poor. Highly integrated performances are not always achieved because the separate two-phase method does not take system and management thinking into consideration in the planning stage. This study pioneers the use of the Managing for Results (MFR) method in planning strategies and action plans for river water quality management. A sustainable management framework is proposed based on the concept and method of MFR, Management Thinking, and System Analysis. The framework, consisting of planning, implementation, and controlling stages, systematically considers the relationships and interactions among four factors: environment, society, economy, and institution, based on the principles of sustainable development. Based on the framework, the Modified Bounded Implicit Enumeration algorithm, which is used as a solving method, is combined with Visual Basic software and MS Excel to develop a computer system for strategy planning. The Shetzu River, located in northern Taiwan, is applied as a case study. According to the theoretical, practical, and regulatory considerations, the result-oriented objectives are defined to first improve the pollution length of the Shetzu River in specific remediation periods to finally meet regulated water quality standards. The objectives are then addressed as some of the constraints for the strategy planning model. The model objective is to pursue the maximum assimilative capacity (environmental phase) subjected to the constraints of water quality standards (institutional phase), social equity (social phase), and proper available technology (economic phase). The pollution quantity abatement and allocation, which are named the top strategies, of each drainage zone for different scenarios can be obtained based on each water quality standard. The middle as well as lower strategies and action plans, which consist of pollution quantity abatement and allocation of each class (domestic, industrial, livestock, and non-point pollution sources) and their individual pollution sources in each drainage zone, are then generated based on the top strategies. The performance indicators and measure plans are proposed based on the action plans to promote the comprehensive effectiveness of river water quality management. The authorities have begun to develop a budget based on the strategies and action plans developed in this study. The analytical results indicate that the objectives, strategies, and action plans developed based on the sustainable management framework and strategy planning system can effectively help the related authorities to fulfill the tasks of water quality management for a river basin.     

INTEGRATION OF WATER QUALITY MODELING,REMOTE SENSING,AND GIS1

ABSTRACT: Water quality modeling has been developed for more than three quarters of a century, but is limited to the study of trends instead of making accurate short-term forecasts. A major barrier to water quality forecasting is the lack of an efficient system for water quality monitoring. Traditional water quality sampling is time-consuming, expensive, and can only be taken for small sizes. Remote sensing provides a new technique to monitor water quality repetitively for a large area. The objective of this research is to use remotely sensed data in a water quality model - QUAL2E - in a case study of the Te-Chi Reservoir in Taiwan. The water quality variables developed from the simulations are displayed in map form. The developed forecasting system is designed to predict water quality variables using remote sensing data as an input to initialize and update water quality conditions.     

Sources of water pollution and evolution of water quality in the Wuwei basin of Shiyang river, Northwest China

Based on surveys and chemical analyses, we performed a case study of the surface water and groundwater quality in the Wuwei basin, in order to understand the sources of water pollution and the evolution of water quality in Shiyang river. Concentrations of major chemical elements in the surface water were related to the distance downstream from the source of the river, with surface water in the upstream reaches of good quality, but the river from Wuwei city to the Hongya reservoir was seriously polluted, with a synthetic pollution index of 25. Groundwater quality was generally good in the piedmont with dominant bicarbonate and calcium ions, but salinity was high and nitrate pollution occurs in the northern part of the basin. Mineralization of the groundwater has changed rapidly during the past 20 years. There are 23 wastewater outlets that discharge a total of 22.4 x 10(6)m(3)y(-1) into the river from Wuwei city, which, combined with a reduction of inflow water, were found to be the major causes of water pollution. Development of fisheries in the Hongya reservoir since 2000 has also contributed to the pollution. The consumption of water must be decreased until it reaches the sustainable level permitted by the available resources in the whole basin, and discharge of wastes must also be drastically reduced.