Costs,Emissions Reductions,and Vehicle Repair: Evidence from Arizona

ABSTRACT

The Arizona inspection and maintenance (I/M) program provides one of the first opportunities to examine the costs and effectiveness of vehicle emission repair. This paper examines various aspects of emission reductions, fuel economy improvements, and repair costs, drawing data from over 80,000 vehicles that failed the I/M test in Arizona between 1995 and the first half of 1996. We summarize the wealth of data on repair from the Arizona program and highlight its limitations. Because missing or incomplete cost information has been a serious shortcoming for the evaluation of I/M programs, we develop a method for estimating repair costs when they are not reported. We find surprising evidence that almost one quarter of all vehicles that take the I/M test are never observed to pass the test. Using a statistical analysis, we provide some information about the differences between the vehicles that pass and those that do not. Older, more polluting vehicles are much more likely never to pass the I/M test, and their expected repair costs are much higher than those for newer cars.

This paper summarizes the evidence on costs and emission reductions in the Arizona program, comparing costs and emissions reductions between cars and trucks. Finally, we examine the potential for more cost-effective repair, first through an analysis of tightening I/M cut points and then by calculating the cost savings of achieving different emission reduction goals when the most cost-effective repairs are made first.     

An Investigation of Idle Emissions Inspection and Maintenance at Altitude

Idle emissions inspection and maintenance was evaluated using a sample of 300 privately owned 1964 through 1973 model-year vehicles operating in the Denver metropolitan area. Ten privately owned stations, licensed by the State of Colorado to perform vehicle safety inspections, were utilized to conduct idle emissions inspection and subsequent maintenance of failed vehicles. Exhaust hydrocarbon (HC) and carbon monoxide (CO) reduction as measured by the 1975 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) mass emission testing procedures was indicated to be 13% and 8% respectively at a 50 % rejection rate. The average maintenance cost to achieve the reduction was $11.32 per failed vehicle.

The adjustment and repair procedures provided to participating garages were sufficient to achieve significant emissions reduction and training provided to garage personnel was adequate. However, several problems were experienced with station personnel relative to data transmittal and inspection pass/fail limits. Problems were also experienced with respect to correlations between laboratory and garage-type analytical instrumentation.     

Costs, emissions reductions, and vehicle repair: evidence from Arizona

The Arizona inspection and maintenance (I/M) program provides one of the first opportunities to examine the costs and effectiveness of vehicle emission repair. This paper examines various aspects of emission reductions, fuel economy improvements, and repair costs, drawing data from over 80,000 vehicles that failed the I/M test in Arizona between 1995 and the first half of 1996. We summarize the wealth of data on repair from the Arizona program and highlight its limitations. Because missing or incomplete cost information has been a serious shortcoming for the evaluation of I/M programs, we develop a method for estimating repair costs when they are not reported. We find surprising evidence that almost one quarter of all vehicles that take the I/M test are never observed to pass the test. Using a statistical analysis, we provide some information about the differences between the vehicles that pass and those that do not. Older, more polluting vehicles are much more likely never to pass the I/M test, and their expected repair costs are much higher than those for newer cars. This paper summarizes the evidence on costs and emission reductions in the Arizona program, comparing costs and emissions reductions between cars and trucks. Finally, we examine the potential for more cost-effective repair, first through an analysis of tightening I/M cut points and then by calculating the cost savings of achieving different emission reduction goals when the most cost-effective repairs are made first.     

An Ex Post Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Nitrogen Dioxide Air Pollution Control Program in Tokyo

ABSTRACT

The benefits and costs of past nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) control policies were calculated for Tokyo, Japan, using environmental, economic, political, demographic, and medical data from 1973 to 1994. The benefits of NO₂ control were estimated as medical expenses and lost work time due to hypothetical no-control air concentrations of NO₂. Direct costs were calculated as annualized capital expenditures and 1 year's operating costs for regulated industries plus governmental agency expenses. The major findings were as follows:

(1) Using Tokyo's average medical cost of pollution-related illness, the best net estimate of the avoided medical costs due to incidence of phlegm and sputum in adults was 730 billion yen ($6.08 billion; 1 U.S. dollar = 120 yen).

(2) The best net estimate of the avoided medical costs due to incidence of lower respiratory illness in children was 93 billion yen ($775 million).

(3) Using Tokyo's average duration of pollution-related illness and average wages, the best net estimate of the avoided costs of lost wages in workers was 760 billion yen ($6.33 billion).

(4) The best net estimate of the avoided costs of lost wages in mothers caring for their sick children was 100 billion yen ($833 million).

(5) Using Tokyo-specific data, the best net costs were estimated as 280 billion yen ($2.33 billion).

(6) Using human health and productivity benefits, and annualized capital cost and operating cost estimates, the best net benefits-to-costs ratio was 6:1 (upper limit 44:1; lower limit 0.3:1). Benefit calculations were sensitive to assumptions of mobile source emissions and certain health impacts that were not included. Cost calculations were highly dependent on assumptions of flue gas volume and fuel use. For comparative purposes, we identified other studies for air pollution-related illness. Assumptions that formed the basis for most of the inputs in the present study, such as duration of illness, medical treatment costs, per person illness in children, and lost wages for working mothers, were similar to those recommended in the literature. Lost wages in sick workers and per capita illness incidence in adults were higher than numbers reported elsewhere. Further advances in cost-benefit analysis (CBA) procedures to evaluate the economic effectiveness of NO₂ controls in Tokyo are recommended to estimate impacts and values for additional human health benefits, ecosystem health and productivity effects, and nonliving system effects, as well as benefits of ancillary reductions in other pollutants. The present study suggests that Tokyo's past NO₂ control policies in total were economically quite effective.     

1990 Thermal Remediation Industry Contractor Survey

The treatment of soil contaminated with organics and inorganics is becoming a major industry in the United States and Europe. The soil cleanup bill for the United States could run as high as $200 to $300 billion over the next 30 to 40 years. European soil cleanup costs could run as high as $130 billion.¹

The types of sites in the United States that will require soil treatment can be broken down into the following categories: ? CERCLA (Superfund) Actions

? RCRA Corrective Actions

? RCRA Closures

? Underground Storage Tanks

? Real Estate Transfers

? Spill Clean-ups.

The cleanup of sites in each of these categories, with the exception of the Real Estate Transfer category, is being driven by different sets of Federal regulations. Real Estate Transfer type regulations were first instituted in New Jersey and have now been promulgated in a number of other states.

The eventual cleanup cost for the Superfund sites will be close to $200 billion. Estimated costs for the industrial sector Superfund are $25 to $50 billion and the estimated cost for the Department of Energy sites is over $150 billion.2 An early RCRA Corrective Action cleanup estimate is $25 billion.3 This estimate may well be low, however, since the permitting, cleanup and delisting criteria are still not clearly defined. The EPA’s RCRA Corrective Action cost estimate is $7.4 billion. However, the Office of Management and Budget feels that this estimate is low.⁴

The potential magnitude of the cleanup costs has resulted in the development and implementation of many technologies for the decontamination of soils. Of the available remedial technologies, thermal treatment has perhaps had the most field testing. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the full scale site remediations which have been or are being conducted using thermal processing equipment. Projects which have been completed, are on-going, or have been contracted for, through January of 1990 are described.     

Ambient Oxidant Exposure andHealth Costs in the United States—1973

The body of information presented in this paper is directed to policy makers and administrators involved in the evaluation and assessment of damages caused by oxidant air pollution on human health and welfare and of possible benefits of control.

To provide a comparison of some of the benefits that can be obtained by reducing photochemical oxidant levels, estimated health costs were derived from data relating adverse health effects to hourly oxidant concentrations. Hourly oxidant or ozone concentrations were measured at approximately 400 monitoring stations scattered throughout the U.S. Most of these sites were located in major urban areas or in other areas where high oxidant concentrations prevailed. Estimates of populations at risk and per capita health costs were generated for those areas where oxidant data was available.

During the period 1971-1973, nearly two-thirds of the U.S. population resided in areas where the hourly primary standard for oxidants of 160 µg/m³ was exceeded. The total annual health cost attributable to oxidants was estimated to range from $120 to over $240 million in the U.S.     

A Multipurpose Flare Stack for Control of Chemical Process Wastes

Abstract

To test the effectiveness of California’s vehicle inspection/ maintenance (I/M) program, exclusive of vehicle-owner intervention, a fleet of more than 1,100 vehicles that previously had failed California’s Smog Check test were sent to randomly selected Smog Check stations in the Los Angeles area for covert inspections and repairs. The two-speed idle test was used for repairs. For those vehicles that were repaired at the first inspection, their FTP emission reductions were 25%, 14%, and 11% for hydrocarbons (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen oxides (NO_x), respectively, although emissions testing for NO_x was not performed at the Smog Check stations. Idle HC and CO emissions increased for 35% and 43% of the vehicles, respectively, after repairs. This data set shows that most vehicles that fail the Smog Check inspection are only marginal emitters, with 61% and 44% of the total potential for HC and CO emission reductions, respectively, coming from only 10% of the vehicles that currently fail the inspection. When the vehicles were rank-ordered by idle emissions from dirtiest to cleanest, emission reduction costs for the highest-emitting 10% of the fleet averaged $l,100/ton and $250/ton for HC and CO, respectively, attributing all the costs to each pollutant exclusively. For the remaining vehicles, costs increased dramatically.     

Cost-Effective Reduction of NOx Emissions from Electricity Generation

ABSTRACT

This paper analyzes the benefits and costs of policies to reduce NO_x emissions from electricity generation in the United States. Because emissions of NOx contribute to the high concentration of atmospheric ozone in the eastern states associated with health hazards, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has called on eastern states to formulate state implementation plans (SIPs) for reducing NO_x emissions. Our analysis considers three NO_x reduction scenarios: a summer seasonal cap in the eastern states covered by EPA's NO_x SIP Call, an annual cap in the same SIP Call region, and a national annual cap. All scenarios allow for emissions trading. Although EPA's current policy is to implement a seasonal cap in the SIP Call region, this analysis indicates that an annual cap in the SIP Call region would yield about $400 million more in net benefits (benefits less costs) than would a seasonal policy, based on particulate-related health effects only. An annual cap in the SIP Call region is also the policy that is most likely to achieve benefits in excess of costs. Consideration of omissions from this accounting, including the potential benefits from reductions in ozone concentrations, strengthens the finding that an annual program offers greater net benefits than does a seasonal program.     

Costs of Air Cleaning with Electrostatic Precipitators at TVA Steam Plants

Cost data were analyzed from thirty steam power plant units utilizing electrostatic precipitators with or without mechanical centrifugal collectors. Operational, maintenance, and total costs for the years 1969, 1970, and 1971 were expressed in 1972 dollars as $/cfm-yr and $/^cf^m-yr-efficiency. The latter parameter is a new one which normalizes the cost of air cleaning by accounting for the amount of particulate matter collected. Large differences in the costs of air cleaning were found between plants and even between units operating in the same plant. Maintenance costs appeared to be the main contributor to large total cost differences, but improved, more specific accounting procedures are required to focus more closely on the reasons for cost differences.     

IAPCS: A Computer Model that Evaluates Pollution Control Systems for Utility Boilers

The IAPCS model, developed by U.S. EPA’s Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory and made available to the public through the National Technical Information Service, can be used by utility companies, architectural and engineering companies, and regulatory agencies at all levels of government to evaluate commercially available technologies for control of SO₂, NO_x, and particulate matter emissions from coal-fired utility boilers with respect to performance and cost. The model is considered to be a useful tool to compare alternative control strategies to be used by utilities to comply with the requirements of the CAA, and to evaluate the sensitivity of control costs with respect to many of the significant variables affecting costs.

To illustrate the use of the model for site-specific studies, the authors used the model to estimate control costs for SO₂ and NO_x control at Detroit Edison’s Monroe plant and two hypothetical plants under consideration and at three plants operated by New York State Electric and Gas Corporation. The economic and technical assumptions used to drive the model were those proposed by the utilities if cited, and if not cited, the model default values were used. The economic format and methodologies for costs cited in the Electric Power Research Institute’s Technical Assessment Guide are used in the IAPCS model. Depending on the specific conditions and assumptions for the cases evaluated, SO₂ control costs ranged from $417 to $3,159 per ton of SO₂ removed, and NO_x control costs ranged from $461 to $3,537 per ton of NO_x removed or reduced.     

Estimating Innovative Technology Costs for the SITE Program

Among the objectives of the EPA’s Superfund Innovative Technology Evaluation (SITE) Program are two which pertain to the issue of economics: 1. That the program will provide a projected cost for each treatment technology demonstrated.

2. That the program will attempt to identify and remove impediments to the development and commercial use of alternative technologies.¹

The SITE Program has fostered a special relationship between elements of the public and private sector. In turn, this has created a unique set of problems. These problems are most apparent where objectives of the public and private sector conflict, as in the area of cost economics. One concern of the SITE Program is to provide the public with an impartial analysis of each technology’s cost. Just as important is the need to be sensitive to the demands of the competitive economic environment which face every firm selling innovative technology (especially when the goal is to promote the commercial use of new technologies).

An early concern of the SITE Program was to design a methodology for projecting and reporting costs which tried to balance the needs of these two groups. Toward this end, four issues were identified which were thought to have a significant impact on the SITE Program's ability to generate useful cost projections. An analysis of these issues led to the creation of a simple five-part cost methodology. This paper will review the nature of these problems and will describe the methodology which addresses them. Finally, a review of cost data gathered from the first nine demonstrations will be presented.     

An Assessment of the Economic Effects of Ozone on U.S. Agriculture

Past attempts to measure the economic consequences of ozone on agriculture have been based on limited plant science information. This paper reports on an economic assessment of ozone on U.S. agriculture using recent crop response data from the National Crop Loss Assessment Network (NCLAN). The results are derived from a U.S. agricultural sector model that includes major crop and livestock production as well as domestic consumption, livestock feeding and export uses. The economic effects of four hypothetical ambient ozone levels are investigated. The analysis Indicates that the benefits to society of moderate (25%) ozone reductions are approximately $1.7 billion. A 25% Increase in ozone pollution results in costs (negative benefits) of $2.1 billion. These estimates do not reflect compliance costs of achieving the ozone changes and hence are not net benefits.     

Construction and Economics of a Pilot/Full-Scale Biological Trickling Filter Reactor for the Removal of Volatile Organic Compounds from Polluted Air

ABSTRACT

The design and the construction of an actual 8.7-m³ pilot/ full-scale biotrickling filter for waste air treatment is described and compared with a previous conceptual scale-up of a laboratory reactor. The reactor construction costs are detailed and show that about one-half of the total reactor costs ($97,000 out of $178,000) was for personnel and engineering time, whereas ~20% was for monitoring and control equipment. A detailed treatment cost analysis demonstrated that, for an empty bed contact time of 90 sec, the overall treatment costs (including capital charges) were as low as $8.7/1000 m³ _air in the case where a nonchlorinated volatile organic compound (VOC) was treated, and $14/ 1000 m³ _air for chlorinated compounds such as CH₂Cl₂. Comparison of these costs with conventional air pollution control techniques demonstrates excellent perspectives for more field applications of biotrickling filters. As the specific costs of building and operating biotrickling filter reactors decrease with increasing size of the reactor, the cost benefit of biotrickling filtration is expected to increase for full technical-scale bioreactors.     

Modeling In-Use Vehicle Emissions and the Effects of Inspection and Maintenance Programs

Different ways for modeling the impact of vehicle emission inspection and maintenance programs on fleet hydrocarbon emissions are examined. A dynamic model is developed for forecasting fleet emissions in which individual vehicle performance is modeled as a stochastic process and vehicle emissions are tracked over time. Emissions inspection and repair are incorporated into the model, allowing for the stochastic aspects of both testing and repair. This model is compared to EPA’s model for evaluating the impact of vehicle emissions inspection and maintenance. We find that the way vehicle emission equipment deterioration overtime is modeled is important for forecasting emissions from the fleet and for assessing the success of inspection and maintenance programs. For inspection programs, we find that factors such as the proportion of vehicles tested, and repair effectiveness and duration have the greatest impact on emission reductions. The ability of different emission testing regimes to identify polluting vehicles has less impact on a program’s overall potential for emissions reduction. Policy recommendations for I&M testing and predictions of emission reduction credits from these tests will depend in important ways on the methods used in the underlying emissions models.     

Review of Light-Duty Diesel and Heavy-Duty Diesel Gasoline Inspection Programs

Abstract

Emissions from diesel vehicles and gas-powered heavyduty vehicles are becoming a new focus of many inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs. Diesel particulate matter (PM) is increasingly becoming more recognized as an important health concern, while at the same time, the public awareness of diesel PM emissions because of their visibility have combined to increase the focus on diesel emissions in the United States. This has resulted in an increased interest by some states in including heavy-duty vehicle testing in their I/M program.

This paper provides an overview of existing I/M programs focused on testing light-duty diesel vehicles, heavyduty diesel vehicles, and heavy-duty gasoline vehicles (HDGVs). Information on 39 I/M programs in 27 different states in the United States plus 9 international inspection programs is included. Information on the status of diesel emissions technology and current test procedures is also presented. The goal is to provide useful information for air quality managers as they work to decide whether such I/M programs would be worth pursuing in their respective areas and in evaluating the emissions measurement technology to be used in the program. Testing of HDGVs is generally limited to idle testing, because dynamometer testing of these vehicles is not practical, and most were not certified on a chassis basis.

Testing of diesel vehicles has mostly been limited to SAE J1667 “snap-idle” opacity testing. Cost-effective technology for measuring diesel emissions currently does not exist, and, therefore, opacity-type measurements, although not effective at reducing the pollutants of most significant health concern, will continue to be used.     

Tentative guidelines for studying the behaviour of p,p'‐DDT under field and laboratory conditions

Abstract

The objectives of the IPP Project—Periodic Inspection on Crop Sprayers—are to develop methods for sprayer certification, analyze quality on spray operation, propose an inspection system for crop sprayers in Brazil, improve environmental quality on spray operation, and reduce costs on chemical control for plant protection systems. Periodic inspections on crop sprayers are performed in several countries and are compulsory in most of them, and it is becoming an important tool for improvement and optimization of use of chemicals. The IPP Project in Brazil is funded by FAPESP—Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo. The results so far showed that all the sprayers presented failures. However, most of them could be approved with minor services. As an example, 56.6% of the sprayers with more than 2 years of use presented leaks, 47% of them had damaged hoses and 80.5% presented bad tips (nozzles). These results indicate the need for better procedures of use and maintenance of sprayers, justifying the periodic inspection system.     

The Effectiveness and Cost of Retrofit For Reducing Automobile Emissions

EPA has recently evaluated several automobile retrofit devices that are potentially applicable to pre-1975 vehicles. The results of this evaluation are described and used to estimate the effectiveness and cost of retrofit for reducing total automobile emissions in the period 1975-1985. It is estimated that retrofit combined with inspection/maintenance can potentially achieve reductions in automobile emissions of 33% to 60% in 1975, depending on pollutant, and 10% to 20% in 1985. The estimated present value discounted to 1972 of the average cost per retrofit vehicle is $30 to $152 over the period 1975-1985 depending on the retrofit system used. The corresponding annualized cost is $6 to $28 per vehicle.     

Diagnosis and Repair of Excessively Emitting Vehicles

Abstract

Between 1991 and 1993, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) selected 1,115 vehicles from all across the South Coast Air Basin to evaluate the effectiveness of the state's existing biennial motor vehicle Inspection/Maintenance (I/M) or Smog Check program. The vehicles were chosen to represent the population of cars that "should fail" properly conducted inspections. The cars were emissions-tested at baseline and sent undercover to licensed I/M garages throughout the basin. Federal Test Procedure (FIT) emissions were measured again for cars that were repaired. In the second year of the study, the vehicles that could be reproduced were tested at the CARB to measure the level of emissions deterioration and any underhood changes in emission control systems. In the third year, the cycle of emissions testing and undercover inspections and repair was repeated.

This paper uses data from the study to explore the relationships between super emitting vehicles (defined here as vehicles whose emissions are several times California certification standards) and diagnostics and repair of their underhood emissions control systems. Also examined is their appearance and improvement during a three-year period that includes two cycles of inspection and repair. An important finding is that once normalized to account for differences in certification standards, the super emitting vehicles do not have a unique signature in terms of their underhood emission control system failure modes, mileage, or age, when compared with the average vehicle expected to fail a Smog Check inspection. However, they are more likely to be identified, diagnosed, and repaired effectively than other vehicles, although they continue to reappear over time.     

An ex post cost-benefit analysis of the nitrogen dioxide air pollution control program in Tokyo

The benefits and costs of past nitrogen dioxide (NO2) control policies were calculated for Tokyo, Japan, using environmental, economic, political, demographic, and medical data from 1973 to 1994. The benefits of NO2 control were estimated as medical expenses and lost work time due to hypothetical no-control air concentrations of NO2. Direct costs were calculated as annualized capital expenditures and 1 year's operating costs for regulated industries plus governmental agency expenses. The major findings were as follows: (1) Using Tokyo's average medical cost of pollution-related illness, the best net estimate of the avoided medical costs due to incidence of phlegm and sputum in adults was 730 billion yen ($6.08 billion; 1 U.S. dollar = 120 yen). (2) The best net estimate of the avoided medical costs due to incidence of lower respiratory illness in children was 93 billion yen ($775 million). (3) Using Tokyo's average duration of pollution-related illness and average wages, the best net estimate of the avoided costs of lost wages in workers was 760 billion yen ($6.33 billion). (4) The best net estimate of the avoided costs of lost wages in mothers caring for their sick children was 100 billion yen ($833 million). (5) Using Tokyo-specific data, the best net costs were estimated as 280 billion yen ($2.33 billion). (6) Using human health and productivity benefits, and annualized capital cost and operating cost estimates, the best net benefits-to-costs ratio was 6:1 (upper limit 44:1; lower limit 0.3:1). Benefit calculations were sensitive to assumptions of mobile source emissions and certain health impacts that were not included. Cost calculations were highly dependent on assumptions of flue gas volume and fuel use. For comparative purposes, we identified other studies for air pollution-related illness. Assumptions that formed the basis for most of the inputs in the present study, such as duration of illness, medical treatment costs, per person illness in children, and lost wages for working mothers, were similar to those recommended in the literature. Lost wages in sick workers and per capita illness incidence in adults were higher than numbers reported elsewhere. Further advances in cost-benefit analysis (CBA) procedures to evaluate the economic effectiveness of NO2 controls in Tokyo are recommended to estimate impacts and values for additional human health benefits, ecosystem health and productivity effects, and nonliving system effects, as well as benefits of ancillary reductions in other pollutants. The present study suggests that Tokyo's past NO2 control policies in total were economically quite effective.     

Determining the Costs of Air Pollution Control

A general procedure has been described that can be followed for estimating the cost of reducing air pollution emissions within a metropolitan region. The six step procedure examines emission inventories, regional trends, control trends, alternate control schemes, control costs, and optimum cost-effectiveness. The procedure is illustrated for one emission source in the Delaware Valley. By application of “feasible controls,” automobile emissions were shown to be reduced from 4.5 billion pounds per year in the Region during 1968 to 1.5 billion pounds in the year 2000. Annual control costs during the same period will increase from $30 million to over $300 million per year. This represents a cost increase from $15 per registered vehicle in 1968 to about $58 per vehicle per year in 2000. A method was illustrated for determining minimum cost to achieve any desired degree of emission reduction where alternate feasible control schemes are available. This method is especially useful where the allocation of scarce resources is involved. The general procedure is applicable to any number of pollutants and emission sources, and may be useful for calculations in any metropolitan area. The objectives of the present study are to apply this method to other sources within the Delaware Valley and to determine total regional costs for various levels of emission reduction. As one example of a practical application for this type of analysis, the economic impact of regulatory schemes can be evaluated on a cost-effectiveness basis