On modelling the global copper mining rates,market supply,copper price and the end of copper reserves

The world supply and turnover of copper was modelled using simple empirical estimates and a COPPER systems dynamics model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, population dynamics, use in society and waste as well as recycling, into a whole world system. The degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using four different methods including (1) burn-off rates, (2) peak discovery early warning, (3) Hubbert's production model, and (4) COPPER, a system dynamics model. The ultimately recoverable reserves (URR) have been estimated using different sources that converge around 2800 million tonne, where about 800 million tonne have already been mined, and 2000 million tonne remain. The different methods independently suggest peak copper mine production in the near future. The model was run for a longer period to cover all systems dynamics and delays. The peak production estimates are in a narrow window in time, from 2031 to 2042, with the best model estimate in 2034, or 21 years from the date of writing. In a longer perspective, taking into account price and recycling, the supply of copper to society is estimated to run out sometime after 2400. The outputs from all models put focus on the importance of copper recycling so that society can become more sustainable with respect to copper supply.     

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Reliability of Water and Hydropower Supply from a Multipurpose Dam in South Korea

Future climate change is a source of growing concerns for the supply of energy and resources, and it may have significant impacts on industry and the economy. Major effects are likely to arise from changes to the freshwater resources system, due to the connection of energy generation to these water systems. Using future climate data downscaled by a stochastic weather generator, this study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on long‐term reservoir operations at the Chungju multipurpose dam in South Korea, specifically considering the reliability of the supply of water and hydropower. A reservoir model, Hydrologic Engineering Center‐Reservoir System Simulation (HEC‐ResSim), was used to simulate the ability of the dam to supply water and hydropower under different conditions. The hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used to determine the HEC‐ResSim boundary conditions, including daily dam inflow from the 6,642 km² watershed into the 2.75 Gm³ capacity reservoir. Projections of the future climate indicate that temperature and precipitation during 2070‐2099 (2080s) show an increase of +4.1°C and 19.4%, respectively, based on the baseline (1990‐2009). The results from the models suggest that, in the 2080s, the average annual water supply and hydropower production would change by +19.8 to +56.5% and by +33.9 to 92.3%, respectively. Model simulations suggest that under the new climatic conditions, the reliability of water and hydropower supply would be generally improved, as a consequence of increased dam inflow.     

Modelling optimal exploitation of petroleum resources in India

In this paper, the exploitation of petroleum resources in India is analyzed by developing a dynamic optimization modeling framework—PETEX. This model combines the practical aspects in determining optimal rates of extraction of oil and gas from a reservoir with a hybrid approach to estimating the discovery rate of petroleum resources in the future, additionally incorporating a stochastic specification to capture the uncertainty associated with discovery. The model acts as an aid to joint production–investment decision making for the entire supply process from drilling through production and in determining the import requirement to meet the country’s oil demand. The model results and sensitivity analysis suggest an acute requirement of sustained infusion of investment into the various upstream activities at a rate much higher than the current levels in order to bridge the demand—supply gap for crude oil. With the opening up of the Indian economy, it is hoped that the participation of the private sector in upstream activities would increase thereby increasing the investments available for upstream activity.     

Investigating the sustainability of the global silver supply,reserves, stocks in society and market price using different approaches

The authors have collected data for the silver market, shedding light on market size, stocks in society and silver flows in society. The world supply from mining, depletion of the remaining reserves, reducing ore grades, market price and turnover of silver was simulated using the SILVER model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, populations dynamics, use in society and waste and recycling into an integrated system. At the same time the degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using different methods such as: 1: burn-off rates, 2: peak discovery early warning, 3: Hubbert's production model, and 4: System dynamic modelling. The Hubbert's model was run for the period of 6000 BC–3000 AD, the SILVER system dynamics model was run for the time range 1840–2340. We have estimated that the ultimately recoverable reserves of silver are in the range 2.7–3.1 million tonne silver at present, of which approximately 1.35–1.46 million tonne have already been mined. The timing estimate range for peak silver production is narrow, in the range 2027–2038, with the best estimate in 2034. By 2240, all silver mines will be nearly empty and exhausted. The outputs from all models converge to emphasize the importance of consistent recycling and the avoidance of irreversible losses to make society more sustainable with respect to silver market supply.     

RISK IN IRRIGATION WATER SUPPLY AND THE EFFECTS ON FOOD PRODUCTION1

ABSTRACT: This paper examines irrigation water supply deficit and associated risk indicators due to random climate events and potential effects on irrigated food production during the period 1996 to 2025 for seven river basins in the USA, China, and India. An integrated water and food model with global scope is applied for the analysis. The global climate regime during 1961 to 1990 is used to generate 30 climatic scenarios for the time period 1996 to 2025, and these scenarios are applied to the model in order to characterize the randomness of precipitation, runoff, and evapotranspiration, which affects both irrigation water supply and demand. The risk with random climate events is represented by reliability, variability, and vulnerability from different perspectives. Regarding irrigation water supply, Colorado will bear an increasingly unstable situation although the average water supply relative to the demand will maintain at a relatively high level; selected basins in China and India indicate that significantly lower levels of reliability and more deleterious affects from drought can be expected, but under a less variable condition due to assumed water storage increase. From 1996 to 2025, the effects of water deficits on irrigated food production are characterized with a nonlinear phenomenon and food production loss will be more sensitive to irrigation water supply deficit in the future. Future work following this paper needs to consider the impact of global climate change and the water quality of the irrigation return flow and result verification by local studies.     

Forecast of the demand and supply plan of China’s uranium resources till 2030

This paper’s purpose is to predict China’s uranium resources demand from 2016 to 2030 based on experimental modeling. In addition, we discuss the future supply structure of China’s uranium resources by analyzing the domestic and foreign supply capacity of China’s uranium resources. According the forecast results, Chinese uranium resource demand will reach 21385 tU in 2030 under a medium scenario. Due to the poor endowment of uranium resources, China’s domestic uranium production will increase slowly. It can be calculated that the total demand of uranium resources in China during 2016–2030 will be 216581 tU, the cumulative production of domestic production will be 37900 tU, the overseas production will be 41950 tU, and the international market purchases will be 130574 tU. Hence, the cumulative degree of dependence on foreign resources is approximately 80%. China’s foreign dependence on uranium will be greater than for oil, and the situation will become extremely serious. Therefore, we put forward several suggestions to ensure the supply of China’s uranium resources: (1) strengthening mineral exploration and increasing domestic production, (2) actively operating the “going out” strategy, (3) enhancing the enterprise competition ability, and (4) establishing uranium resource reserves. By these means, China could efficiently guarantee the domestic uranium resource security and respond to the competition of India’s uranium resources demand increased.     

基于市场机制的农产品生态敏感度识别与政策建议——以云南西双版纳为例

关于生态农业的研究,已经在农学、生物学、地理学等领域积累了丰硕的成果。但是,这些研究大都着眼于生态农业的生产过程,即更多关注供给的角度,而很少从需求的角度来分析。本文从市场机制的角度出发,构建了消费者偏好与生产者策略的"传导模型",依据消费者对农产品生态敏感度的不同对其进行区分。对于"生态不敏感"的农产品,消费者对产品的生态敏感度低,这一偏好通过价格信号传导到生产者,使生产者采取大规模标准化的生产策略,对生态环境造成损耗;对于"生态强敏感"的农产品,消费者对产品的生态敏感度高,这一偏好能够通过价格信号传导到生产者,并使生产者采取生态化生产的策略,是绿色可持续的;对于"生态弱敏感"的农产品,市场存在分层现象,使得上述两种传导机制同时并存。消费者的偏好与愿意支付的溢价,生产者采用生态化生产方式的成本,以及证明产品品质的交易费用,是决定农产品生产能否在市场环境下自发实现绿色可持续的三个关键环节。培育绿色消费观念、提高生态农业的产出、健全产品质量监督体系是促进生态农业发展的三个着力点。     

Evaluating opportunities to improve material and energy impacts in commodity supply chains

When evaluated at the scale of individual processes, next-generation technologies may be more energy and emissions intensive than current technology. However, many advanced technologies have the potential to reduce material and energy consumption in upstream or downstream processing stages. In order to fully understand the benefits and consequences of technology deployment, next-generation technologies should be evaluated in context, as part of a supply chain. This work presents the Materials Flow through Industry (MFI) supply chain modeling tool. The MFI tool is a cradle-to-gate linear network model of the US industrial sector that can model a wide range of manufacturing scenarios, including changes in production technology and increases in industrial energy efficiency. The MFI tool was developed to perform supply chain scale analyses in order to quantify the impacts and benefits of next-generation technologies and materials at that scale. For the analysis presented in this paper, the MFI tool is utilized to explore a case study comparing three lightweight vehicle supply chains to the supply chain of a conventional, standard weight vehicle. Several of the lightweight vehicle supply chains are evaluated under manufacturing scenarios that include next-generation production technologies and next-generation materials. Results indicate that producing lightweight vehicles is more energy and emission intensive than producing the non-lightweight vehicle, but the fuel saved during vehicle use offsets this increase. In this case study, greater reductions in supply chain energy and emissions were achieved through the application of the next-generation technologies than from application of energy efficiency increases.     

水合物法的天然气提氦技术研究

氦气是发展国防军工和高科技产业不可或缺的战略性物资之一.由于氦气在自然界中的富集度很低,目前工业规模化提氦来源主要是含氦天然气.常用的提氦方法有吸附法、吸收法、低温冷凝法、膜分离法等,但它们都不能很好地解决提氦难度大、成本高、规模化工业应用水平较低等缺点.因此,引入水合分离技术,利用含氦天然气各组分生成水合物的条件差异在水合反应过程中对氦气提浓,同时辅以催化脱氢工艺,实现粗氦的精制.     

THE EFFECT OF PRICE ON LONG RUN WATER SUPPLY BENEFITS AND COSTS1

ABSTRACT The long-term effects of presently used and alternatively proposed water pricing policies were studied using some tools of operations research and economics. A discrete deterministic dynamic programming model was structured and operated to determine the optimal water supply capacity expansion paths for a hypothetical residential community with a given water pricing policy. The objective of the model was the maximization of future discounted consumers'surpluses plus producer's revenues net of the long-run cost of supply. State variables were the size of system capacity in MGD and stage variables were the times of feasible capacity increase in years. Demand curves, population sizes, and growth rates for various economic sectors of the community were assumed known, as well as short-run production and capital construction costs. Several policies, including constant unit rates, decreasing or increasing block rates and summer differential rates were tested. It was concluded that price plays a major role in the short-run allocation and long-run planning and conservation of water supplies. Conservational pricing policies were advocated as means of lowering the long-run cost of water, using the water price-demand function as a planning tool. Further research in these areas was recommended.     

DEVELOPMENT OF A WATER SUPPLY PROTECTION MODEL IN A GIS1

ABSTRACT: As part of a larger model to identify lands suitable for acquisition, a water supply protection model was developed using the Southwest Florida Water Management District's GIS. Several hydrologic and hydrogeologic data layers were overlaid to develop maps showing ground-water supply suitability, protection areas for surface-water supply, protection areas for major public supply wells, susceptibility to ground-water contamination, and recharge to the Floridan aquifer. These intermediate layers were combined into a final map to prioritize protection areas for water supply.     

IMPROVING WATER RESOURCE ALLOCATION THROUGH DEMAND-ORIENTED WATER POLICY1

ABSTRACT. In the arid and semi-arid regions of the Western United States the water problem is generally perceived as one of “inadequate” supply. This conception of the problem engenders supply-oriented water policy, or policy focusing exclusively upon a single class of solutions–the various schemes for augmenting an area's water supply. In a more complete or balanced conceptualization, the water problem is viewed as one of “inadequate” supply and/or “excessive” demand. When the water problem is so conceived, water policy is broadened to include demand-oriented water policy, or policy aimed at reducing the quantity of water demanded in an area. The purpose of this paper is to describe and explain demand-oriented water policy. Basically it consists of changing the set of commodities produced by the economy, cutting back and/or eliminating goods requiring large quantities of water in their production and introducing and/or expanding goods which require little water. This paper also reports briefly on research undertaken to test demand-oriented policy in Arizona. Results indicate that such a policy can be extremely efficacious in solving a region's water problem.     

Integrated model for renewable energy planning in Turkey

All economic sectors are associated with energy use; therefore, government organizations aim to supply sustainable energy for human needs and economic growth. In particular, increased environmental concerns of the public in Turkey have impacted policymaking for renewable energy (RE) management in Turkey. The primary objective for RE sources of the Turkish Ministry of Energy is to ensure that 30% of the share of electricity production is from RE resources in 2023. In this paper, the integrated multi-objective, multi-period linear programming model is presented to determine effective allocation of RE supply for seven different geographical regions in Turkey for the period of 2017 to 2024. The integrated model consists of two different stages. The first stage involves qualitative evaluations of RE sources for seven geographical regions. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is applied to determine criteria priorities and overall ratings of geographical regions across determined criteria for RE sources are computed. The second stage of the integrated model consists of a multi-objective, multi-period linear programming model. The proposed multi-objective linear programming model is coded in MPL (Mathematical Programming Language) and solved using the GUROBI 5.1.0 solver. The output of the integrated model presents the total supply amount of RE sources for geographical regions in planning period. The ε-constraints method is applied to compute the total supply amount of RE from geographical regions for the period of 2017 to 2024. In this study, a systematic decision-making model is generated to allocate renewable energy sources to the geographical regions. The presented model integrates qualitative evaluations and quantitative parameters of different geographical regions to determine the optimal supply amount of RE. The obtained results are consistent with the potential quantities of RE alternatives in geographical regions, regional specifications, and social requirements.     

Seaborne iron ore trade in the 1990s

This paper discusses how world steel production and seaborne iron ore trade have grown since 1950. The role of steel production forecasts in determining investment in the iron ore industry is examined. Forecasts for world steel production and the demand and supply of seaborne iron ore in the 1990s are presented. It is predicted that world steel production will increase by 64 million tons between 1991 and 2000. This increase will be located principally in the developing countries and China. The corresponding increase in seaborne iron ore trade will be approximately 55 million tons. Expansion projects will be located mainly in Australia and Brazil, but no greenfield iron ore projects will be undertaken. By the end of the decade, the demand for seaborne iron ore will be equal to its supply.     

RESERVOIR OPERATION ANI EVALUATION OF DOWNSTREAM FLOW AUGMENTATION1

ABSTRACT: Operation of a storage‐based reservoir modifies the downstream flow usually to a value higher than that of natural flow in dry season. This could be important for irrigation, water supply, or power production as it is like an additional downstream benefit without any additional investment. This study addresses the operation of two proposed reservoirs and the downstream flow augmentation at an irrigation project located at the outlet of the Gandaki River basin in Nepal. The optimal operating policies of the reservoirs were determined using a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) model considering the maximization of power production. The modified flows downstream of the reservoirs were simulated by a simulation model using the optimal operating policy (for power maximization) and a synthetic long‐term inflow series. Comparing the existing flow (flow in river without reservoir operation) and the modified flow (flow after reservoir operation) at the irrigation project, the additional amount of flow was calculated. The reliability analysis indicated that the supply of irrigation could be increased by 25 to 100 percent of the existing supply over the dry season (January to April) with a reliability of more than 80 percent.     

Fisheries Closed Areas Strengthen Scallop Larval Settlement and Connectivity Among Closed Areas and Across International Open Fishing Grounds: A Model Study

This study examined whether a measured increase in average body size of adult sea scallops inside three fishery closed areas on Georges Bank (GB), United States (US), was sufficient to increase larval supply to closed areas and open fishing areas in both US and Canadian areas of the Bank. The effects of adult scallop density-at-size and fecundity-at-size on egg production were compared among open and closed fishery areas, countries, and time periods before and after the closed areas were established. Estimated egg production was then used to define spawning conditions in a coupled biological–physical larval tracking model that simulated larval development, mortality, and dispersal. Results showed that order of magnitude increases in larval settlement after closure were facilitated by increases in size-dependant egg production inside and dispersal from Closed Areas I and II, but not Nantucket Lightship Closed Area. The distributions of both egg production and larval settlement became more uniform across the Bank, causing the relative contribution of Canadian larvae to US scallop aggregations to decrease after establishment of Closed Areas I and II. Decreases in small and medium-sized scallop density in Canada and decreases in large scallops over the US-Southern Flank after closure caused local declines in egg production but were not sufficient to negatively affect larval settlement at the regional scale. Our model suggests that the establishment of fishery closed areas on GB considerably strengthened larval supply and settlement within and among several adult scallop aggregations.     

Meeting Heterogeneity in Consumer Demand for Animal Welfare: A Reflection on Existing Knowledge and Implications for the Meat Sector

The legitimacy of the dominant intensive meat production system with respect to the issue of animal welfare is increasingly being questioned by stakeholders across the meat supply chain. The current meat supply is highly undifferentiated, catering only for the extremes of morality concerns (i.e., conventional vs. organic meat products). However, a latent need for compromise products has been identified. That is, consumer differences exist regarding the trade-offs they make between different aspects associated with meat consumption. The heterogeneity in consumer demand could function as a starting point for market segmentation, targeting and positioning regarding animal welfare concepts that are differentiated in terms of animal welfare and price levels. Despite this, stakeholders in the meat supply chain seem to be trapped in the dominant business model focused on low cost prices. This paper aims to identify conflicting interests that stakeholders in the meat supply chain experience in order to increase understanding of why heterogeneous consumer preferences are not met by a more differentiated supply of meat products produced at different levels of animal welfare standards. In addition, characteristics of the supply chain that contribute to the existence of high exit barriers and difficulty to shift to more animal-friendly production systems are identified. Following the analysis of conflicting interests among stakeholders and factors that contribute to difficulty to transform the existing dominant regime, different routes are discussed that may help and motivate stakeholders to overcome these barriers and stimulate the creation of new markets.     

基于混合生命周期评价模型的我国食物系统水资源消耗及二氧化碳排放核算

食物生产不仅依赖水资源,同时产生大量二氧化碳排放,这种资源环境影响存在于食物系统整个产业链。为促进食物系统节水降碳,本文构建了包含5大类共23种具体食物部门的混合生命周期评价模型,对各类食物系统的完全水资源消耗和二氧化碳排放进行了核算与比较。结果表明：①不同食物的水资源消耗和二氧化碳排放差异明显,动物性食物的平均水资源消耗和二氧化碳排放强度分别为植物性食物的1.9 ～ 15.0倍和1.9 ～ 2.7倍;②食物系统直接和间接水资源消耗占比较为接近,但二氧化碳排放主要源自上游产业链的间接排放,占比高达80.9%;③食物系统间接水资源消耗主要来自农业部门,而间接碳排放主要来自电力生产和供应业、基础化工原料制造业、非金属矿产品行业和交通运输业;④从营养元素供给看,动物性食物提供蛋白质和脂肪的资源环境影响高于植物性食物,蔬菜和主食分别在提供维生素C和碳水化合物上具有最小的环境成本。基于本文结果,食物系统节水应主要提高生产环节用水效率,而降碳则主要依靠上游产业减排,特别是发电和化肥生产等行业的协同节水减碳潜力。同时,本文结果也可为未来基于环境影响制定膳食指南提供数据支撑。     

WATER AND WATER PROBLEMS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT AND SOME POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS1

ABSTRACT: It is estimated that by about 1984 water demand in the District will nearly equal Nature's average annual replenishment of the supply and that, thereafter, unless means are developed to augment our in-District resources, water mining will be required on a grand scale. Sources of augmentation include: (1) reduction of wastes; (2) industrial recycling of previously-used water; (3) use of municipal sewage effluents; (4) desalination of brackish ground water; (5) aquifer recharge from all available, high-quality sources, particularly flood waters; and (6) importation of excess waters from such out-of-District sources as the lower courses of the Suwannee and Apalachicola Rivers. To achieve maximum beneficial uses of in-District sources a regional water and sewer authority is needed that can develop and transmit water from all available sources to the various county and city systems on a wholesale basis. It is envisioned that such a supply system would tie together all production sources, much as the electrical generation and supply systems are currently organized into regional electric power hookups. At least two bills are currently before the Florida Legislature to achieve these goals.     

Impact of forest policies on timber production in India: a review

Until the 20th century, forest policies across the globe focused primarily on effective forest utilization for timber production. Subsequent loss of forest land prompted many countries to review and amend such policies, in an attempt to incorporate the principles of conservation and sustainable forest management. One of the countries to implement such changes was India, which introduced new policies, acts and programmes to regulate forest conversion and degradation, beginning in the 1980s. These policies, acts, and programmes included the Forest Conservation Act of 1980, the National Forest Policy of 1988 and the Hon. Supreme Court Order of 1996. All of these regulations affected the timber supply from government forest areas, and created a huge gap in timber supply and demand. Currently, this deficit is met through imports and trees outside forests (TOFs). Timber production from government forest areas is abysmally low (3.35% of total demand) compared to potential timber production from TOFs, which fulfil 45% of the total timber demand in India. This implies that TOFs have immense potential in meeting the growing timber demand; however, they have not been fully utilized due to discrepancies in state level TOFs’ policies. The present paper provides a review of different forest policies, acts and guidelines in relation to timber production in India, and provides specific recommendations in order to maximize timber production in the context of increasing demand for timber products.